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Technical Support Document: Recommended Attainment/Nonattainment Designations in Illinois for the 2012 Revised Primary Annual PM2.5 National Ambient Air Quality Standard AQPSTR 13-08 December 12, 2013 Illinois Environmental Protection Agency Division of Air Pollution Control 1021 North Grand Avenue East P.O. Box 19276 Springfield, IL 62794-9276 www.epa.state.il.us Table of Contents TABLES ......................................................................................................................................... 3 INTRODUCTION......................................................................................................................... 7 FEDERAL GUIDANCE ............................................................................................................... 8 FIVE FACTOR ANALYSIS ................................................................................................................................................... 8 1. AIR QUALITY DATA : .............................................................................................................................................. 8 2. EMISSIONS AND EMISSIONS RELATED DATA ............................................................................................................... 9 3. METEOROLOGY .................................................................................................................................................... 9 4. GEOGRAPHY /T OPOGRAPHY .................................................................................................................................. 10 5. JURISDICTIONAL BOUNDARIES ............................................................................................................................... 10 ILLINOIS AIR QUALITY ........................................................................................................ 10 ILLINOIS FIVE FACTOR ANALYSIS FOR CHICAGO METROPOLITAN STUDY AREA ........................................................................................................................................... 14 Factor 1 – Air Quality Data ................................................................................................................................. 15 Factor 2 - Emissions and Emissions - Related Data ............................................................................................ 24 Factor 3 – Meteorology ...................................................................................................................................... 35 Factor 4 – Geography/Topography .................................................................................................................... 40 Factor 5 – Jurisdictional Boundaries................................................................................................................... 40 Five Factor Cumulative Evaluation and Recommendation ................................................................................. 40 ILLINOIS FIVE FACTOR ANALYSIS FOR METRO-EAST ST. LOUIS STUDY AREA ....................................................................................................................................................... 43 Factor 1 – Air Quality Data ................................................................................................................................. 44 Factor 2 – Emissions and Emissions – Related Data ........................................................................................... 53 Factor 3 - Meteorology ....................................................................................................................................... 64 Factor 4 – Geography/Topography .................................................................................................................... 70 Factor 5 – Jurisdictional Boundaries................................................................................................................... 70 Five Factor Cumulative Evaluation and Recommendation ................................................................................. 70 Remainder of Illinois ........................................................................................................................................... 73 RECOMMENDATIONS ............................................................................................................ 73 DESIGNATION .......................................................................................................................... 76 APPENDIX A……………………………………………………………………………A1 - A11 APPENDIX B……………………………………………………………………………B1 - B12 2 TABLES Table 1 2010-2012 Illinois PM2.5 Design Values (ug/m 3)………………………….…..…...12 Table 2 Ranked Chicago Area Emissions by County –Total Tons/Year (TPY)....…..……… 24 Table 3 Total Population Estimates by County for the Chicago CBSA..……….………..….. 29 Table 4 Total Population Estimates by County for the Chicago Study Area........................... 30 Table 5 2005-2012 Population Change by County for the Chicago Study Area...………....... 31 Table 6 Commuting Patterns in the Chicago Study Area….………………………….…..…. 32 Table 7 2012 IDOT Travel Statistics for the Chicago Study Area...………....…………….... 33 Table 8 St. Louis MO-IL MSA – Percent Emissions by County………….……………….... 53 Table 9 Metro-East Study Area - Ranked Emissions by County..…..………………….…..... 54 Table 10 Total Population Estimates by County for the St. Louis MO-IL MSA..……………...58 Table 11 Total Population Estimates by County for the Metro-East Study Area..……………. 60 Table 12 2005-2012 Population Change by County for the Metro-East Study Area…………..60 Table 13 2012 IDOT Travel Statistics for the Metro-East Study Area..……………………… 61 Table 14 Commuting Patterns in the Metro-East Study Area...………………………………. 62 Table 15 Recommended Attainment/Nonattainment Designations in Illinois for the 2012 Revised Primary Annual PM2.5 National Ambient Air Quality Standard.…………. 76 Table 16 PM2.5 NAA Boundary Recommendation Data Sources….…………………………..77 3 FIGURES Figure 1 Statewide PM2.5 Annual Averages 1999-2012…………………………… 11 Figure 2 Illinois Annual PM2.5 Design Values 2010-2012………………………… 13 Figure 3 Chicago Metropolitan Study Area………………………………………… 14 Figure 4 Chicago Metropolitan Study Area 2010-2012 PM2.5 Design Values……. 15 Figure 5 Chicago Metropolitan Study Area 2010-2012 PM2.5 Urban Excess……... 16 Figure 6 Chicago Area Annual PM2.5 Design Value Trends (1999-2012)....….….. 17 Figure 7 Chicago Area PM2.5 Seasonal Average Time Series for 2010-2012…….. 19 Figure 8 2010-2012 Chicago Area PM2.5 Seasonal Averages by Site..……..….… 20 Figure 9 Chicago PM2.5 Total Mass Annual (2010-2011)………………………… 21 Figure 10 Chicago PM2.5 Urban Increment Mass Annual (2010-2011)……………. 22 Figure 11 Urban Areas within Chicago-Naperville-Elgin IL-IN-WI Core Based Statistical Area (CBSA)……………………………………………………….……… 28 Figure 12 Total 2006-2010 Commuting Patterns within the Chicago Study Area...... 24 Figure 13 Percent by County – 2012 AVMT in the Chicago Study Area……………. 34 Figure 14 Wind Rose for Chicago Midway Airport, 2010-2012……………………... 36 Figure 15 Pollution Rose for Washington High School Monitor High Days, 2010-2012…………………………………………………………… 38 Figure 16 Trajectories for High and Low Concentration Days at Chicago Washington High School……………………………………………….……………...... 39 Figure 17 Metro-East St. Louis Study Area………………………………………….. 43 Figure 18 Metro-East St. Louis Study Area 2010-2012 PM2.5 Design Values……… 44 Figure 19 Metro-East St. Louis Study Area 2010-2012 PM2.5 Urban Excess….…… 45 Figure 20 Metro-East St. Louis Annual PM2.5 Design Value Trends 1999-2012.….. 46 Figure 21 Metro-East PM2.5 Seasonal Average Time Series for 2010-2012………… 48 Figure 22 2010-2012 Metro-East PM2.5 Seasonal Averages by Site………………… 49 4 Figure 23 Granite City PM2.5 Total Mass Annual 2010-2011……………………….. 50 Figure 24 Granite City PM2.5 Urban Increment Mass Annual (2010-2011)………… 51 Figure 25 Urbanized Areas within St. Louis MO-IL MSA…………………………… 57 Figure 26 Percent by County – 2012 AVMT in Metro-East Study Area……………... 62 Figure 27 Total 2006-2010 Commuting Patterns within the Metro-East Study Area…63 Figure 28 Wind Rose for St. Louis Lambert International Airport, 2010 – 2012......... 64 Figure 29 Pollution Rose for East St. Louis Monitor High Days, 2010 – 2012……… 65 Figure 30 Pollution Rose for Granite City Monitor High Days, 2010 - 2012…..……. 66 Figure 31 Trajectories for High and Low Concentration Days at East St. Louis…...... 68 Figure 32 Trajectories for High and Low Concentration Days at Granite City……… 69 Figure 33 Proposed PM2.5 Nonattainment Areas……………………………………. 75 Figure A1 2011 SO2 Emissions (TPY) by County for the Chicago Study Area....….. A-2 Figure A2 2011 NOx Emissions (TPY) by County for the Chicago Study Area....…. A-3 Figure A3 2011 VOC Emissions (TPY) by County for the Chicago Study Area....… A-4 Figure A4 2011 NH3 Emissions (TPY) by County for the Chicago Study Area....…. A-5 Figure A5 2011 PM2.5 Emissions (TPY) by County for the Chicago Study Area...... A-6 Figure A6 Major SO2 Point Sources....…..………....…..………....…..…………….. A-7 Figure A7 Major NOx Point Sources....…..………....…..………....…..………....…. A-8 Figure A8 Major VOC Point Sources....…..………....…..………....…..………...…. A-9 Figure A9 Major NH3 Point Sources....…..………....…..………....…..………....…. A-10 Figure A10 Major Direct PM2.5 Point Sources....…..………....…..………....…..…… A-11 Figure B1 2011 SO2 Emissions (TPY) by County for the St. Louis Metro-East Study Area....…..………....…..………....…..………....…..………....….