Metro-East 8Hr Attainment Demonstration
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DRAFT 8-HOUR OZONE ATTAINMENT DEMONSTRATION FOR THE METRO-EAST NONATTAINMENT AREA AQPSTR 07-02 Illinois Environmental Protection Agency Bureau of Air 1021 North Grand Avenue, East Springfield, Illinois 62794-9276 April 3, 2007 Table of Contents List of Tables .......................................................................................................................3 List of Acronyms .................................................................................................................4 Executive Summary.............................................................................................................6 1.0 Attainment Demonstration.......................................................................................9 2.0 Control Measures...................................................................................................12 3.0 Transportation Conformity ....................................................................................16 4.0 Base Year (2002) Emissions Inventory .................................................................22 5.0 Reasonable Further Progress (RFP).......................................................................23 5.1 Emission Inventories....................................................................................24 5.1.1 Base Year Inventory .......................................................................24 5.1.2 Projected 2008 Inventory................................................................25 5.2 Calculation of 15 Percent RFP Target Value...............................................29 5.2.1 VOM Calculation............................................................................30 5.2.2 NOx Calculation ............................................................................30 5.3 Fifteen Percent Reasonable Further Progress Demonstration .....................31 6.0 Reasonably Available Control Technology (RACT).............................................34 7.0 Contingency Measures...........................................................................................37 8.0 Legal Authority and Resource Commitments........................................................39 Appendix A Transportation Conformity........................................................................41 Appendix B 2002 Emissions Inventory for the Metro-East Nonattaintment Area........53 Appendix C Summary of VOM RACT Implementation in Illinois ..............................64 2 List of Tables Number Page 3-1 Metro-East 8-hour Ozone Draft Transportation Conformity Budgets...................21 5-1 Base Year NOx Emissions for 2002 ......................................................................25 5-2 Base Year VOM Emissions for 2002.....................................................................25 5-3 Projected Point Source Emissions for 2008...........................................................27 5-4 Projected Area Source Emissions for 2008 ...........................................................27 5-5 Projected On-road Mobile Source Emissions for 2008 .........................................28 5-6 Projected Off-road Mobile Source Emissions for 2008.........................................28 5-7 Total Projected NOx Emissions for 2008 ..............................................................29 5-8 Total Projected VOM Emissions for 2008.............................................................29 5-9 Demonstration of RFP in Nonattainment Area......................................................33 3 List of Acronyms ADVMT Average Daily Vehicle Miles Traveled AER Annual Emissions Report ASWVMT Average Summer Weekday Vehicle Miles Traveled AIM Architectural and Industrial Maintenance AVER All Vehicle Emission Rate BART Best Available Retrofit Technology CAIR Clean Air Interstate Rule CFR Code of Federal Regulations CO Carbon Monoxide EGAS Economic Growth Analysis System EGU Electric Generating Unit EWGCOG East-West Gateway Council of Governments FAA Federal Aviation Administration FMVCP Federal Motor Vehicle Control Program IDOT Illinois Department of Transportation I/M Inspection/Maintenance IPM Implementation Planning Model LADCO Lake Michigan Air Directors Consortium MACT Maximum Achievable Control Technology MON Miscellaneous Organic NESHAP NAA Nonattainment Area NAAQS National Ambient Air Quality Standard NESHAP National Emission Standards for Hazardous Air Pollutants NOx Oxides of Nitrogen NSPS New Source Performance Standards OBD On-Board Diagnostics OTB On the Books OTC Ozone Transport Commission 4 PM2.5 Particulate Matter < 2.5 microns QA Quality Assurance QC Quality Control RACT Reasonably Available Control Technology RICE Reciprocating Internal Combustion Engine RFG Reformulated Gasoline RFP Reasonable Further Progress RVP Reid Vapor Pressure SCC Source Classification Code SIP State Implementation Plan TPD Tons Per Day U.S. EPA United States Environmental Protection Agency VISTAS Visibility Improvement State and Tribal Association of the Southeast VMT Vehicle Miles Traveled VOM Volatile Organic Material 5 Executive Summary On April 15, 2004, the United States Environmental Protection Agency (U.S. EPA) designated portions of the St. Louis metropolitan area, including counties in both Missouri and Illinois, as nonattainment for the 8-hour ozone National Ambient Air Quality Standard (NAAQS). These designations became effective on June 15, 2004. Nine counties in the St. Louis area are designated as a “moderate” nonattainment area (NAA) for the 8-hour standard (based on 2001- 2003 observed ozone data). In Missouri, they are St. Louis City, Franklin, Jefferson, St. Charles, and St. Louis Counties. In Illinois, four counties are nonattainment -- Jersey, Madison, Monroe, and St. Clair. As a result of the designation of these counties to nonattainment, the States of Illinois and Missouri are required by the Clean Air Act (CAA) to develop plans to attain the NAAQS by the specified deadline. For 8-hour ozone, the attainment plan must be submitted by June 15, 2007, and the plan must demonstrate attainment of the NAAQS by June 15, 2010. This document summarizes Illinois’ attainment plan. The attainment plan has been developed in cooperation with the Missouri Department of Natural Resources (Missouri DNR), and satisfies the requirements of Section 182(b) of the CAA. Additionally, this document contains: the transportation conformity budget for the Metro-East portion of the NAA pursuant to the requirements of Section 176 of the CAA; a summary of the required emissions inventory for the base year, 2002; Illinois’ demonstration of Reasonable Further Progress (RFP) for the Metro- East area; Illinois’ demonstration that it has fully implemented the requirements for Reasonably Available Control Technology (RACT) for volatile organic material (VOM); Illinois’ commitment to adopt and implement RACT on major sources of NOx in the nonattainment area; a demonstration that Illinois has met the requirements for contingency measures; and a demonstration that Illinois has the legal authority and is commiting the resources needed to implement this attainment plan. The Illinois EPA and the Missouri DNR worked cooperatively to develop a photochemical model to simulate the formation and transport of ozone in the St. Louis metropolitan area. The modeling system is used to evaluate emissions reduction strategies for inclusion in the states’ 6 attainment plans. The modeling was performed using the CAMx and CMAQ air quality modeling systems, which incorporated episodic emissions, meteorological, and ozone data using a nested grid covering the central U.S. and centered on St. Louis. The study focused on simulating three 8-hour ozone episodes from the summer of 2002. Note, the CMAQ modeling system never was able to meet the model performance evaluation goals using the final basecase inventory and was discarded from further consideration due to lack of acceptable performance. After detailed performance testing of the 2002 basecase simulation, the CAMx modeling system was exercised with a 2009 On-the-Books (OTB) emissions control scenario aimed at assessing the effects of future year emission control strategies on ozone in the St. Louis NAA. The projected 8-hour ozone design values (using observed 2000-2004 5-year baseline 8-hour ozone design values) in the St. Louis NAA for the 2009 OTB emission scenario were all below 85 ppb, thereby demonstrating attainment. The modeling analysis is supplemented with a “weight of evidence determination” to provide additional confidence in the study results. The results of the supplemental analyses are consistent with the results of the photochemical modeling in predicting attainment for the St. Louis NAA by the 2009 attainment deadline. This document describes the development of, and establishes, draft 8-hour ozone motor vehicle emissions budgets for VOM and NOx emissions in the for the years 2008 and 2009 for the four- county Metro-East St. Louis, Illinois area. A motor vehicle emissions budget is that portion of the total allowable VOM and NOx emissions allocated to highway and transit vehicle use and that are defined in the State Implementation Plan (SIP) for a certain date. The rules governing transportation conformity require certain transportation activities to be consistent with motor vehicle emissions budgets contained in control strategy implementation plans (40 CFR 93.118). In order to demonstrate conformity to the motor vehicle emissions budget, estimated emissions from the implementation