23 September 2013 Europe/France&Italy Equity Research Steel Tubular view Research Analysts SECTOR REVIEW Michael Shillaker 44 20 7888 1344
[email protected] Change is in the pipeline James Hanford 44 20 7883 1551
[email protected] Figure 1: Vallourec and Tenaris capex (€m) and free cash flow yield (%) 1400 12% James Gurry 10% 44 20 7883 7083 1200
[email protected] 8% Liam Fitzpatrick 1000 6% 44 20 7883 8350 4%
[email protected] 800 2% Specialist Sales: James Brady 600 44 20 7888 4267 0%
[email protected] 400 -2% -4% 200 -6% 0 -8% 2010 2011 2012 2013E 2014E 2015E VLLP Capex TENR Capex VLLP FCF yield TENR FCF yield Source: Company data, Credit Suisse estimates ■ Vallourec (O/P, €56) vs. Tenaris (U/P, €15) in a wider sector context. In this report, we present our view on the outlook for the tubular sector and discuss, in particular, the Vallourec versus Tenaris investment case. We reiterate our preference for Vallourec over Tenaris, based on the changes that are occurring in the tubular space and which we think are likely to continue. Tenaris is regarded as high quality by the market, rightly in our view, but it has significantly outperformed the sector and Vallourec, in particular, as a result and we believe the stock is fully priced. In contrast, Vallourec has seen a difficult two years, with delays in key ramp-ups and stagnation in the industrial segment to which it is still significantly exposed. With the key mills now turning profitable, we expect a marked increase in EBITDA even without a material cycle recovery.