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Flood Management Current State, Challenges and Prospects in Pakistan: a Review Muhammad Aslam Flood Management Current State, Challenges and Prospects in Pakistan: A Review Muhammad Aslam To cite this version: Muhammad Aslam. Flood Management Current State, Challenges and Prospects in Pakistan: A Re- view. Mehran University Research Journal of Engineering and Technology, Mehran University of Engi- neering and Technology, Jamshoro, Pakistan, 2018, 37 (2), pp.297 - 314. 10.22581/muet1982.1802.06. hal-01744925 HAL Id: hal-01744925 https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01744925 Submitted on 27 Mar 2018 HAL is a multi-disciplinary open access L’archive ouverte pluridisciplinaire HAL, est archive for the deposit and dissemination of sci- destinée au dépôt et à la diffusion de documents entific research documents, whether they are pub- scientifiques de niveau recherche, publiés ou non, lished or not. The documents may come from émanant des établissements d’enseignement et de teaching and research institutions in France or recherche français ou étrangers, des laboratoires abroad, or from public or private research centers. publics ou privés. Distributed under a Creative Commons Attribution| 4.0 International License Mehran University Research Journal of Engineering & Technology Vol. 37, No. 2, 297-314, April 2018 p-ISSN: 0254-7821, e-ISSN: 2413-7219 DOI: 10.22581/muet1982.1802.06 Flood Management Current State, Challenges and Prospects in Pakistan: A Review MUHAMMAD ASLAM*† RECEIVED ON 19.12.2016 ACCEPTED ON 29.05.2017 ABSTRACT Flooding is globally a major natural hazard. Floods result in property and life loss and poor economic development. Though it is not possible to prevent the occurrence of floods, but their negative impacts could be minimized considerably through proper planning and effective preparation. The vulnerability to floods could be reduced by accurate and timely prediction (Forecasting and Warning) and by impact- reducing measures. Pakistan faces flooding problem almost every year in the recent past. For the period 1947-2015, a financial loss of US$ 38.165 billion has been estimated as a result of 23 major flood events in Pakistan. Approximately, more than 12,000 human beings were dead and 616,598 km2 land area was affected due to these floods. Climate change has been projected to lead to an increase in the frequency and magnitude of floods in future in Pakistan due to high glacial melting and deicing of mountain caps and high monsoon rainfall. The situation demands for effective and sustainable flood management to reduce flood damages. This paper reviews flood management current state, highlights challenges of flood management and identifies prospects for effective and sustainable flood management in Pakistan. The paper also seeks to make certain recommendations toward effective and sustainable flood management in Pakistan. Key Words: Flood Management, Current State, Challenges, Prospects, Pakistan. 1. INTRODUCTION looding is globally a major natural hazard. Floods affected by floods. Pakistan faces flooding problem result in property and life loss and poor almost every year in the recent past. Floods cause huge Feconomic development. Though it is not loss of infrastructure, life and land. In Pakistan, poor possible to prevent the occurrence of floods, but their management of water resources and lack of effective negative impacts could be minimized considerably water policy have led to flooding problem [1]. It has through proper planning and effective preparation. The been reported that among South Asian countries affected vulnerability to floods could be reduced by accurate by flooding, Pakistan is in fifth place [2]. The historical and timely prediction (Forecasting and Warning) and perspective of floods and the nature and causes of floods by impact-reducing measures. Pakistan is also adversely in Pakistan are portrayed below. †Corresponding Author (E-Mail: [email protected]) * Department of Civil Engineering, The University of Lahore, Lahore. This is an open access article published by Mehran University Research Journal of Engineering and Technology, Jamshoro under the CC by 4.0 International License. 297 Flood Management Current State, Challenges and Prospects in Pakistan: A Review 1.1 Historical Perspective of Floods 1.2 Types of Floods Pakistan has a long history of floods. During 1947-2015 Riverine floods, flash floods, glacial lake outburst floods, period, Pakistan has experienced 23 highest flood events coastal floods and the urban floods take place in [3]. During this period, floods of different magnitudes Pakistan. Main characteristics of these floods are damaged large tracts of lands in Gilgit-Baltistan, FATA depicted below. (Federally Administered Tribal Areas), AJK (Azad Jammu and Kashmir), KPK (Khyber Pakhtunkhwa), Punjab, Sindh 1.2.1 Riverine Floods and Balochistan. The 2010 super floods in Pakistan was Riverine floods generally take place as a result of one of the largest river flood in recent history [4,5]. intense monsoon (summer) rainfall in the catchments For the period 1947-2015, a financial loss of US$ 38.165 [9]. In the history of Pakistan, the 2010 super flood billion has been reported as a result of 23 major flood was the most devastating riverine flood [10] which events in Pakistan. Approximately, more than 12,000 caused huge life and financial loss [11]. Agriculture human beings were dead and 616,598 km2 land area was sector (crops, livestock and fisheries) suffered the affected due to these floods as shown in Table 1. On an highest damage caused by 2010 super flood. It was average, every year floods affect approximately 0.715 estimated at US$5045 million as revealed in Table 2 population of Pakistan and by 2030 about 2.7 million [12]. The 2013 and 2014 riverine floods also caused people in Pakistan may be affected by floods [6-8]. huge life and property loss. TABLE 1. HISTORICAL FLOODS AND DAMAGES DISTRIBUTION Financial Loss Human Deaths Damaged Villages Inundated Area Nro. Yea (US$ Million) (Number) (Number) (km2) 10. 1895 408 2019 10000 1792 25. 1895 397 657 6094 2048 36. 1895 301 196 16160 7440 47. 1295 330 884349 1600 59. 1495 283 823490 1042 63. 1497 5413 497 9271 4147 75. 1597 668 182 8162 3493 86. 1597 3548 402 10839 8192 97. 1897 383 854 2718 465 180. 1797 2322 399 9719 3059 111. 1998 229 812107 419 132. 1598 193 33624 188 143. 1598 7241235 109 184. 1898 885 500 140 614 125. 1099 3801 1800 18320 3875 146. 1399 814 423 1862 556 157. 1699 317 529 6685 1668 108. 2001 15000 1398 10755 16000 119. 2001 3673 501 31870 2758 220. 2001 2164 597 16415 474 231. 2001 2300 373 8329 448 242. 2001 474 356 4906 977 253. 2001 187 243 4763 287 T5otal: 37816 10217 189723 61659 Mehran University Research Journal of Engineering & Technology, Volume 37, No. 2, April, 2018 [p-ISSN: 0254-7821, e-ISSN: 2413-7219] 298 Flood Management Current State, Challenges and Prospects in Pakistan: A Review 1.2.2 Flash Floods tremendous life and property loss in Chitral of the KPK province [20]. The PDMA (Provincial Disasters The flash floods of huge magnitude and short duration Management Authority) in KPK has recently reported take place in natural streams due to heavy monsoon rainfall that 2016 torrential rains and flash floods during March (torrential rain) in hilly and semi-hilly areas [13-15]. Flash to July period have killed 261 people in KPK (Chitral, floods are difficult to predict and also have the short Mardan, Kohat, Manshera and Malakand). Over 200 have warning lead times. In Pakistan, flash floods occur along been injured and 1,101 houses completely destroyed or the mountainous regions adjoining the Indus River Basin, washed away, with thousands more partially damaged Kashmir, Gilgit-Baltistan, KPK, Balochistan and South [21]. Punjab. The flash flood of 2011 caused a human life loss of more than 500 lives. The 2011 floods had severely 1.2.3 Glacial Lake Outburst Floods impacted the agriculture sector, with damages to crops, GLOF (Glacial Lake Outburst Floods) take place as a result livestock and fisheries. The total estimated loss was US$ of collapse of the glacial lakes [22]. Such floods pose an 1840.31 million. Sindh suffered most with 94% and increasing threat to mountainous regions in northern Balochistan with 6% of total agriculture sector damage Pakistan. Three people were killed and over 300,000 people as depicted in Table 3 [16]. stranded in Chitral, KPK, due to a Glacial Lake Outburst The flash flood of 2012 also caused about 571 human Flood in July 2015. deaths [17]. Crop loss caused by 2012 flash flood was “The glaciers of the HKH (Himalayan Karakorum Hindu estimated as PKR 33.6 billion [18]. The NDMA (National Disaster Management Authority) reported that 2014 flash Kush) region in Pakistan are retreating due to global floods caused death of more than 200 people and affected warming. As a result of glaciers retreat, glacial lakes over 460,000 people across AJK, Gilgit Baltistan and develop behind glacial deposits rupture and release huge Punjab [19]. The 2016 flash flood also caused a volume of water within few hours causing devastating flooding called as GLOF. GLOF causes severe TABLE 2. AGRICULTURE SECTOR LOSS DUE TO 2010 socioeconomic damages in the HKH region of Pakistan. FLOOD IN PAKISTAN The ICIMOD (International Centre for Integrated P)rovince/Location Loss (USD Million Mountain Development) has identified and mapped 5218 A4JK 2 glaciers having 2,420 lakes in Pakistan. About 52 lakes B7alochistan 42 have a potential GLOF threat with occurrence frequency F6ATA 3 of once every 3-10 years. In HKH region, about 35 GLOFs G2ilgit Baltistan 2 have been reported during the past 200 years. In Pakistan, K6PK 39 recently, frequency of bursts floods has increased to 1-2 P8unjab 183 S2indh 230 per year” [23]. T5otal: 504 1.2.4 Coastal Floods TABLE 3. AGRICULTURE SECTOR LOSS DUE TO 2011 FLOOD IN PAKISTAN Coastal flooding in coastal areas takes place due to P)rovince Loss (USD million cyclones generated by the storm surges induced by wind B7alochistan 103.7 in the Arabian Sea.
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