12 November 26, 2017 Spotlight Saudi Arabia Israel Wahington pushes for closer Saudi-Israeli stance on key regional challenges

Ed Blanche ligence links, with senior officials meeting in , London and oth- er countries. Now they meet in pub- Beirut lic. But none of this suggests that a historic breakthrough is just around n November 6, Palestin- the corner. ian Authority President Fifty years after the 1967 Mid- Mahmoud Abbas made dle East war, which transformed an unexpected trip to Israel into a regional superpower, Riyadh to meet King the is a different place. OSalman bin Abdulaziz Al Saud and In the wake of the “Arab spring,” Crown Prince Mohammed bin Sal- younger, more pragmatic voices are man bin Abdulaziz. In recent weeks heard in politics as the Arabs’ brittle the crown prince has become the world undergoes profound change. de facto power in the kingdom, in- Saudi Arabia and Israel may be troducing radical policy changes, moving closer to counter , but including what appears to be a they are hardly allies. They will not dramatic, though largely behind- be able to establish diplomatic re- the-scenes, shift towards Israel as lations until the Palestinian issue, a partner against their common en- a central role in the region’s geo- emy Iran. politics for decades has been settled Little has been said of what tran- once and for all. And that will not be spired in Riyadh. But speculation easy. has been rife in the Middle East and The kingdom’s elite may be will- Washington that the Saudis could ing to cooperate with Israel against have pressed Abbas to accept what- Iran, but the Saudi man in the ever plan the US Trump administra- street, like his Arab brethren, still tion comes up with. bitterly opposes Israel for occupy- That squared with Riyadh’s action ing Arab land in 1967 and will not in forcing Lebanese Prime Minister accept any deal that excludes the Saad Hariri to move against Hezbol- return of the West Bank as a Pales- lah, the most powerful political and tinian homeland. military force in . Any move by Crown Prince Mo- Hariri resigned, saying he feared hammed to consolidate the moves an assassination plot. His father, towards an alliance with Israel could former premier Rafik Hariri, was as- trigger a backlash against his rule in sassinated in February 2005. Five a country that remains essentially members of Hezbollah have been a confederation of traditionally in- indicted by a UN-mandated special clined tribes, and in Arab eyes could tribunal in The in his delegitimise Saudi Arabia’s position murder. as leader of the Arab world. A few days before Abbas’s visit Riyadh sees an opportunity to to Saudi Arabia, Jared Kushner, press Israel on the Arab Peace Ini- US President Donald Trump’s son- tiative it sponsored in 2002 and that in-law and his Middle East envoy, was approved by the Arab League spent four days in Riyadh discuss- and rejected by Israel. That pro- ing a new regional peace initiative vides for Arab states normalising reportedly involving Saudi Arabia relations with Israel in return for and Israel. withdrawing from territory occu- Trump factor. Chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff General Joseph Dunford (L) walks next to On November 16, Israel’s military pied in 1967. Israel’s Chief of Staff Lieutenant-General Gadi Eisenkot in Tel Aviv, last May. (Reuters) chief of staff, Lieutenant-General Right now, that would be political Gadi Eisenkot, gave an interview to suicide for Netanyahu and Israel’s the Saudi-owned online newspaper rightists. Elaph in his Tel Aviv office and -de This is part of a regional pattern mark a major win for Israel and Sau- visits to both countries’ capitals by As for Crown Prince Mohammed, clared he was prepared to share mil- of shifting alliances since the “Arab di Arabia, as the kingdom embarks Kushner. a unilateral move without Palestini- itary intelligence on Iran with Saudi spring” upheavals of 2010-2011. on a new era under Crown Prince Eisenkot said Trump’s presiden- an approval could trigger a backlash Arabia and other “moderate” Arab Hussein Ibish of the Arab Gulf Mohammed, who has overturned cy has created “an opportunity to in a region torn by war and drifting states — a startling statement from States Institute in Washington collegial rule by the House of Saud build a new international coalition towards disintegration. Israel’s top soldier that underlines observed that Steinitz’s remarks into what has all the trappings of in the region.” just how times are changing in the “won’t surprise anyone who’s been one-man rule and an abrupt epoch- Saudi Arabia and Israel have re- Ed Blanche is analysis editor of region. paying attention to the budding al change. portedly for years had covert intel- The Arab Weekly. courtship between Israel and Saudi But as the details of the anti-Iran The tempo of changes Arabia, which is being pushed espe- alliance slowly emerge, it seems the is clearly accelerating, cially by the Israeli side.” whole structure depends on the US Palestine question could still with the Trump But the fact remains that the intervening in force militarily. Even force behind the Saudi-Israeli initia- together, Israel and Saudi Arabia administration tive, Crown Prince Mohammed, is do not have the firepower to over- be the make-or-break factor pressing all parties under growing pressure because of whelm the Iranians on their own. concerned to join the radical shifts in Riyadh’s poli- Eisenkot’s interview and other re- cies that he has introduced in recent cent instances of reaching out to the in Riyadh and Tel Aviv, as well as forces and take Ed Blanche military action against months, not always successfully. Arab world after decades of conflict Washington, on what could be an The tempo of these changes is demonstrate how Israel’s diplomat- alliance between Saudi Arabia and the Islamic Republic clearly accelerating, with the Trump ic and security-related priorities in Beirut Israel. and its allies. administration pressing all parties regional affairs are opening up new Majdi Khaldi, Abbas’s adviser concerned to join forces and take geostrategic opportunities. he key issue in the cal- for diplomatic affairs who accom- On November 19, Israel’s energy military action, presumably with US “The main thing Israel stands to culations of Saudi Arabia panied him to Riyadh, told Voice minister, Yuval Steinitz, a member support, against the Islamic Repub- gain is tighter unofficial relations and Israel to combine of Palestine radio on November 5, of Prime Minister Binyamin Netan- lic and its allies. with Saudi Arabia,” military analyst their forces to fight an the day before the Riyadh meeting: yahu’s security cabinet and a for- This is being viewed as poten- Ron Ben-Yishai wrote on Ynet, the expansionist Iran is the “Saudi Arabia has always stood mer strategic affairs minister, said tially dangerous for the kingdom online English version of Israel’s TPalestinians and what Israel is pre- with us, provided us with all the the Jewish state has “partly covert” and the region as a whole as it grap- Yediot Aharonot newspaper. pared to give them in exchange for political and financial support we links with Saudi Arabia and other ples with wall-to-wall conflicts and “Crown Prince (Mohammed) bin abandoning their quest for an in- needed, and the time has come for Arab states, particularly because of a geopolitical landscape undergoing Salman basically owes Israel and dependent homeland in war-won us to stand with it in the face of Iran’s expansionist ambitions and profound change, possibly even dis- (Eisenkot) for their swift help in lands controlled by the Jewish great challenges.” efforts by these states to mobilise integration. confirming the claims against Iran state. The Palestinians are sure to be the Americans against the Islamic “Saudi Arabia is under pressure and Hezbollah, and for the indirect The intrigue deepened on No- asked to make major concessions, Republic. not just from Iran’s ambitions, aid they are offering him in his re- vember 6 when Palestinian Presi- although to what extent is not pub- The Saudi foreign minister, Adel but also from falling oil revenues, lations with President Trump and dent Mahmoud Abbas was sum- licly known, and that will compli- al-Jubeir, told ’s CBC televi- shrinking national wealth and with the Europeans concerning the moned to Riyadh by King Salman cate the negotiations. sion on November 22: “There are no mounting demands for reform,” one Middle East,” he wrote on Novem- bin Abdulaziz Al Saud to discuss Ibrahim Habib, dean of scientific relations between Saudi Arabia and commentator observed. ber 19. the thorny Palestinian issue, which research at Ribat University Col- Israel. There is an Arab peace initia- Eisenkot in his interview accused Some analysts interpreted Eisen- must be settled if the anti-Iran lege affiliated with Gaza’s Interior tive, which shows the roadmap to the Islamic Republic of “seeking to kot’s comments, clearly approved campaign is to get off the ground. Ministry, observed: “Abbas is un- reach peace and establish normal take control of the Middle East, cre- by Netanyahu’s security cabinet, as Scant details have emerged since der Arab and international pres- relations between Israel and the ating a (Shia) crescent from Leba- an appeal by Israel to Saudi Arabia that meeting, but the Saudis are re- sure to settle the Palestinian ques- Arab states.” non to Iran and then from the Gulf for joint action against Tehran de- ported to have given Abbas an ul- tion. But he’s smart, stubborn and Even so, these events have con- to the Red Sea… We must prevent livered by Israel’s top military com- timatum: Accept the terms of a US elusive.” firmed speculation that the Saudis, this from happening. mander. blueprint for countering Iran with Securing the settlement of an is- leaders of Islam’s dominant Sunni “In this matter, there is complete Trump wants to see Israel and Saudi Arabia and Israel or resign. sue that has long been at the centre faith, and Israel have moved closer agreement between us and the Saudi Arabia, key US allies in the There has been no official confir- of Middle East turbulence would after 70 turbulent years, largely kingdom of Saudi Arabia, which has Middle East, join forces against mation of that from Saudi Arabia, be a major — and badly needed — because both are deeply alarmed never been our enemy. It has not Iran and some analysts suspect that Israel or the Palestinians. foreign policy achievement for US about Iran’s growing influence fought us and nor have we fought recent disclosures on the grow- But it is becoming clear that se- President Donald Trump’s admin- across the region using the Revolu- i t .” ing links between the two regional rious discussions are under way istration. tionary Guards and armed proxies. That sort of arrangement would powers may be connected to recent