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APPENDIX E Socioeconomics

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APPENDIX E Socioeconomics APPENDIX E Socioeconomics This appendix contains tabular data and supporting materials for Section 4.3: Social, Economic, and Demographic Characteristics of the Area and used in the analysis of socioeconomics for this EIS. E-1 Technical Memorandum: Economic Impact of Proposed Regional Air Service at Mammoth Yosemite Airport (2006) E-2 Additional Economic Summary Tables E-3 Technical Memorandum: Mammoth Yosemite Airport DEIS Economic Impact of Airport Expansion E-4 Traffic Information Appendix E-1 Technical Memorandum: Economic Impact of Proposed Regional Air Service at Mammoth Yosemite Airport The purpose of this technical memorandum is to evaluate the economic impact of the Proposed Action Alternative for the Mammoth Yosemite Airport in the Town of Mammoth Lakes, California. This appendix contains a description of local development activity, calculation of the composite regression model used in the analysis, and a presentation of changes in economic output as a result of the regional service alternative. W:\12006395_Mammoth\EIS\Appendices\Working Files\Appendix Intros.doc\9/26/2007 Technical Memorandum: Economic Impact of Proposed Regional Air Service at Mammoth Yosemite Airport Photo: Google Earth September 2006 Prepared by The SGM Group, Inc., for the Federal Aviation Administration Revised September 2007 by Hayes Planning Associates, Inc. TABLE OF CONTENTS 1.0 Introduction ............................................................................................................................................. 3 2.0 Existing Conditions.................................................................................................................................. 5 2.1 Background................................................................................................................................ 5 2.2 Mammoth Lakes and Mono County .......................................................................................... 5 2.2.1 Mammoth Lakes.........................................................................................................5 2.2.2 Mono County ..............................................................................................................7 2.2.3 Mono County Tourism ................................................................................................9 2.3 Two-County Socioeconomic Study Area—Economic Profile .................................................... 9 2.4 Summary—Existing Conditions............................................................................................... 10 3.0 Economic and Development Impacts of the Proposed Action.............................................................. 11 3.1 Overview of Socioeconomic Methodology and Terminology .................................................. 11 3.1.1 Regression Modeling................................................................................................11 3.1.1 Regression Modeling................................................................................................12 3.1.2 Input-Output Model Application................................................................................13 3.1.3 Determining Population, Housing and Development Impacts..................................15 3.2 Economic Impacts ................................................................................................................... 16 3.2.1 Employment Opportunities.......................................................................................16 3.2.2 Value Added.............................................................................................................16 3.2.3 Tax Related Impacts ................................................................................................16 3.2.4 Additional Measures of Economic Value..................................................................17 3.3 Development Impacts.............................................................................................................. 17 3.4 Summary of Economic and Development Impacts ................................................................. 18 4.0 Glossary ................................................................................................................................................ 20 Table and Figures ....................................................................................................................................... 22 Endnotes ..................................................................................................................................................... 50 The SGM Group, Inc. Page 1 11/2/2007 LIST OF TABLES Table 1: Forecast Enplanements—Proposed Action.................................................................................. 24 Table 2: Two-County Study Area 2000-2005.............................................................................................. 25 Table 3: Distribution of Housing Units by Jurisdiction and Type 2000—2005........................................... 26 Table 4: Change in Development since 2004............................................................................................. 27 Table 5: Estimated Change in Existing Commercial Development 2004-2005.......................................... 28 Table 6: Historic Skier Visits Mammoth and June Mountains 1980-2006 .................................................. 29 Table 7: Yosemite Visitation Data 1980-2005............................................................................................. 30 Table 8: Estimated Total Output for Inyo and Mono Counties 2005........................................................... 31 Table 9: Two-County Employment and Population 1990-2005 .................................................................. 32 Table 10: Alternative Employment Forecast Models—Summary Output ................................................... 34 Table 11: Composite Model ........................................................................................................................ 35 Table 12: No-Action Alternative Forecasts—Mono and Inyo Counties 2008-2015 .................................... 36 Table 13: Population and Employment Impact—Mono and Inyo Counties 2008-2015.............................. 37 Table 14: Development Impact—Mono and Inyo Counties 2008-2015..................................................... 38 Table 15: Total Employment Impact by Economic Sector Proposed Action 2015 ..................................... 39 Table 16: Total Value Added Impact Proposed Action 2015...................................................................... 40 Table 17: Total Taxes—Proposed Action Model 2015 ............................................................................... 41 Table 18: Indirect Business Taxes—Proposed Action 2015...................................................................... 42 Table 19: Total Output Proposed Action 2015............................................................................................ 43 Table 20: Employee Compensation Proposed Action 2015 ....................................................................... 44 Table 21: Average Employee Salaries Proposed Action Model 2015 ........................................................ 45 Table 22: Summary—Geographic Distribution of Socioeconomic Impacts 2008 and 2015....................... 47 LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1: Updated Composite Model .......................................................................................................... 48 Figure 2: Updated MMH Model................................................................................................................... 49 Figure 3: Population and Employment Forecast—Mono and Inyo Counties 2000-2015 ........................... 50 Figure 4: Two-County Employment Impact—Distribution by Economic Sector 2015................................. 51 The SGM Group, Inc. Page 2 11/2/2007 1.0 Introduction The purpose of this technical memorandum is to evaluate the proposed Horizon Airlines operation specifications amendment for the Mammoth Yosemite Airport (MMH) in the Town of Mammoth Lakes, California. Horizon Airlines has proposed initiating regional air carrier service into MMH (MMH). Under this proposal, service would be provided using existing airport facilities, involving no runway modification or construction of new facilities. The only airport modification would be a remodel of an existing maintenance building to serve as a passenger terminal to accommodate updated passenger security requirements. This remodeling of an existing building is not subject to FAA approval. This proposed Horizon Airlines MMH operation specifications amendment is referred to as the Proposed Action for the remainder of this study. This technical memorandum also refers to a previous study entitled Technical Memorandum: Mammoth Yosemite Airport DEIS—Economic Impact of Airport Expansion, May 2005, which was also prepared by The SGM Group, Inc. This previous study was conducted in conjunction with the earlier environmental impact statement concerning a proposed MMH runway expansion. In October 2005 the FAA stopped work on the proposed airport expansion EIS. Since then the Town of Mammoth Lakes focused its efforts on the pursuit of airline services that was regional in nature and could be accommodated within the existing facilities at MMH. Horizon Airlines submitted its letter of intent to provide regional carrier air service to the Federal
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