Mea Risk's Nigeria Weekly Threat

Politics/Social 3 MEA RISK’S Economic Issues 8 Security Issues 12 NIGERIA WEEKLY THREAT & STABILITY ASSESSMENT 31 OCTOBER TO 6 NOVEMBER 2016 HIGHLIGHTS For the period of 31 October to 6 November 2016, there were 74 critical incidents in Nigeria, resulting in at least 111 recorded deaths, 79 wounded, and Nigeria MEA Risk index 105 arrests. The highest share of incidents fell in the criminality category, which gathered over 32% of the incident pool during the week, followed by nearly 19% by the Human & Social Crises category. On the political front, Nigeria is confronted with multiple challenges, dominated this past week by the rejection by many militant groups in the Niger Delta of the ongoing negotiations between the Federal Government and political representatives of the oil producing regions. Militants involved in attacking oil sites and facilities, mainly pipeline, as well as civil organizations active in oil producing regions rejected the talks and refuse to endorse the negotiators selected to represent them. Also on the political front, the Federal Government has been facing growing opposition to its request to obtain a financial bailout from the IMF and the World Bank valued at nearly $30 billion. Not only the international donors insist that Nigeria undergoes a substantial structural adjustments that will inevitably lead to a major austerity plan, but the Nigerian assembly also rejected President Buhari’s request stating precisely that the impact of such a loan program will be devastating to the population. On the security front, Nigeria continues to be confronted with severe security problems. Despite the Nigerian military often insisting that it won the war against Boko Haram, there have persistent attacks from Boko Haram militants in the northeast, with daring incidents this week in Malam Fatori and in Talala and Ajigin, in the southern part of Borno State, resulting in scores of dead. The military continues also on its anti-Boko Haram offensive and has been able to neutralize many militants, freeing several captives this week. Nigeria is also confronted with sustained violence from militants attacking oil sites, herdsmen raiding villages over grazing rights, and dangerous levels of general violence and criminality across the country. On the economic front, various government bodies have been pushing for solutions that would reduce government spending, including a new increase in fuel prices in petrol stations, a new law that would allow local governments and municipalities to seek their own sources of revenues, therefore disengaging States and the Federal government, and a new law that would allow the government to charge highway tolls. We anticipate greater austerity measures to be enacted and social unrest could escalate if and when Nigeria agrees with the terms of international lenders for new loans, likely in early to mid-2017. © MEA-Risk.com. US+508-981-6937 [email protected] Powered by Critical Incidents Tracker MAJOR CRITICAL INCIDENTS IN NIGERIA For the period of 31 October to 6 November 2016. Source: MEA Risk’s Critical Incidents Tracker Borno: 4 Nov 2016 Borno: 1 Nov 2016 Borno: 1 Nov 2016 19 dead in Boko Haram-army clash Nine suspected Boko Haram militant Eight suspected suicide bombers in Malam Fatori. Most victims were killed in a vehicle explosion near blown off at military check point in from Boko Haram Maiduguri near a military checkpoint Gubio near Niger border Lagos: 2 Nov 2016 Borno: 31 Oct 2016 44 criminals arrested by the police Boko Haram ambushes soldiers, in Lagos kills 9, injures 20 in Damboa Niger Delta: 1 Nov 2016 Cross River: 1 Nov 2016 Benue: 3 Nov 2016 militants attack Trans Forcados Army kills wanted militant in Cross Criminal gang holds magistrates export line in Warri River, arrests Priest close to militant hostage in Makurdi court groups Niger Delta: 30 Oct 2016 Niger Delta militants attack gas pipeline in Urhobo region, feeding into a major Lagos gas plant © MEA-Risk.com. US+508-981-6937 [email protected] Powered by Critical Incidents Tracker REVIEW Political and sources, but local leaders insist that it President Buhari met in Abuja on 1 is much bigger. November with representatives and Human & leaders of the oil rich region, who In addition, Hostcom also wants to Social Issues presented a 16-point agenda on behalf capture 13% of the derivation fund, of the region. The meeting followed modeled on the Lagos State share of with an attack on an export line the derivation fund. Oil-producing communities in located in Batan area of Delta State on Niger Delta want more Furthermore, Hostcom is 2 November, which was considered as concessions in ongoing complicating the talks by demanding a message from the militants that they peace talks, likely to were not properly represented in the complicate the negotiations that it is awarded pipeline surveillance contracts and wants the government negotiations. to create an agency that would boost Host Communities of Nigeria, security in the host communities. Hostcom, which says it represents the Police in Abuja repress Other demands include the passage of communities in the oil-producing Shiites' demonstrators, who the Petroleum Industry Bill, PIB, by the called for release of their regions of Niger Delta, issued new National Assembly. leader and members demands in the midst of negotiations between the Federal government and local leaders seeking to redefine Hundreds of members of the Shiite governance and revenue sharing in Niger Delta militant group criticizes local negotiators, leaning Islamic Movement of Nigeria the oil-rich region. The new demands expect more attacks on oil (IMN) demonstrated in Abuja on 2 are likely to complicate the works of facilities November for the third time to protest the negotiators who have been the continuous detention of the their meeting with President Bouhari, spiritual leader, Ibrahim El-Zakzaky. considering that Hostcom has not The Movement for the Emancipation The demonstration was met with a been included in the direct talks. of Niger Delta (MEND) says it is not heavy police presence, and ended impressed by the local leaders who are before the demonstrators reached the Hostcom says it wants to be the negotiating with the Federal national assembly with the police recipient of additional incomes Government on the future governance using force and teargas to disperse the originating from the so-called Gas of the Niger Delta. MEND described demonstrators. El-Zakzaky has been in Flare Penalty Fund. Nigeria has been most of the leaders as “vultures and prison for over a year after members seeking to exit gas flaring by 2020 and dead wood.” MEND's poisition is likely of his movement clashed with the has enacted a gas flaring penalty to to make the reaching an agreement convoy of the Chief of Army Staff, force oil companies to move away difficult and this means attacks against Lieutenant-General Tukur Buratai, at from the practice. The fund is said to oil sites may continue. MEND already Zaria Kaduna State. IMN also be worth some NGN98 billion today, attributes the most recent attacks on demanded the release of 50 of its according to Federal government what it considers President Buhari members arrested by security agents meeting with "corrupt politicians." in Jos on 12 October 2016. IMN says 20 © MEA-Risk.com. US+508-981-6937 [email protected] Powered by Critical Incidents Tracker of the prisoners are young students, Corruption in Politics: A leading Senator complained that mostly minors and even a 9 -year old Former Abia Governor “lNEC has failed, refused and or arraigned over alleged child. neglected to conduct re-run elections corruption in Rivers State into the Senate, House of Representatives and state House of Assembly. The failure of lNEC to Corruption in Politics: The financial enforcement agency, the conduct the re-run elections in Rivers President likely to fire two Economic and Financial Crime Presidency officials over State within the time frame ordered by Commission (EFCC) arraigned the corruption case the respective Election Petition former Governor of Abia State, Orji Tribunals/courts is in breach of the Uzor Kalu in Lagos for money Electoral Act and Section 76 of the Sources in Abuja say President laundering. Kalu was governor of Abia 1999 Constitution (as amended), thus Muhammadu Buhari is considering for eight years, ending in 2007. Kalu endangering the nation’s democracy. firing two of his top aides who have also owns Slok Ltd. and the Daily Sun Non-representation of the entire been indicted in a major arms and New Telegraph newspapers in people of Rivers State in the Senate procurement corruption case. A report Nigeria. and some constituencies of Rivers looking into procurement practices at Kalu is charged with 34 counts State in the House of Representatives the Ministry of Defense between 2007 bordering on money laundering. and House of Assembly is in breach of and 2015 listed officials in the current the 1999 Constitution, and endangers and previous administrations as being Appearing before a Judge, Kalu peace and order in the state." implicated in wrongdoing, and pleaded not guilty to the charges. indicting several former military Indeed, the lack of Rivers Kalu was alleged to have used his leaders, ministers, and contractors. representation in the Senate is an company to retain NGN200 million, issue on the legislative front where, for With the indictments in place, the part of funds illegally obtained from instance, the Petroleum Industry Bill Economic and Financial Crimes the Abia State Government accounts. (PIB) is about to be debated, while a Commission (EFCC) will soon begin its Senate issues ultimate to major oil state (Rivers) is not investigations on the targeted officials. election commission to fast- represented. Included in the indictment report are track election rerun in Rivers State Arrested Judges get public two of President Bouhari’s senior sympathy appointees who are likely to be fired so as to allow EFCC to conduct an The Nigerian Senate issued this week official probe on them.

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