Report Was Written by Pam Jordan, from the International Research Institute for Climate and Society, Columbia University

TABLE OF CONTENTS

Executive Summary 2

Conference Proceedings 3

Conference Statement 9

Appendix 1: Agenda 11

Appendix 2: Side Events 13

Appendix 3: Participants 13

Appendix 4: Abstracts 20 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM), under the auspices of the Ministry of Earth Sciences of the Government of India, hosted the 6th International Conference on Climate Services (ICCS6) in Pune, India from February 11-13, 2020. Support was provided by the UK’s Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office (FCDO), through the UK Met’s Asia Regional Resilience to a Changing Climate (ARRCC) Programme, and the CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS). The CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS) is led by the International Center for Tropical Agriculture (CIAT), part of the Alliance of Bioversity International and CIAT, and carried out with support from the CGIAR Trust Fund and through bilateral funding agreements. For more information, please visit https://ccafs.cgiar.org/donors. This report was written by Pam Jordan, from the International Research Institute for Climate and Society, Columbia University.

NOTE FROM THE CSP SECRETARIAT The Secretariat , which is jointly run by the International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI) and the Climate Service Center Germany (GERICS), would like to extend its gratitude to everyone who worked so diligently to make the conference happen, with extra thanks to IITM, UK Met, and CCAFS for the financial or in-kind support for the event. The event was a great success in gathering colleagues from all over the world, with a focus on the Asian continent and its state of climate services. The conference was an important opportunity for stocktaking of the past almost 10 years of work in the CSP, and paved the way for future cooperation. The coming 10 years will be decisive - the transformation towards climate neutrality has to be realized in large parts by 2030, if global warming shall be limited according to the goals of the Paris Agreement.

SUPPORT The ICCS6 was sponsored and supported by the following institutions and organizations:

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

On February 11-13, 2020, over 200 attendees gathered from all over the world for the Sixth International Conference on Climate Services held in Pune, India. The event, which took place at the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM), was supported by India's Ministry of Earth Sciences, the UK Foreign Commonwealth and Development Office (FCDO), and the CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS). Participants represented a diverse group of institutions from NGOs, international organizations, research institutions, and government agencies. Participants gathered to hear presentations on "advancing the knowledge and practice of climate services for climate resilience,” across a set of thematic topics on the state of the practice of climate services, the state of knowledge, and building resilience.

ICCS is the premiere climate services event, organized jointly by the Global Framework for Climate Services, an international effort coordinated by the World Meteorological Organization, and the Climate Services Partnership (CSP), an informal platform for knowledge sharing and collaboration. Climate services, which provide timely, tailored information and knowledge to decision-makers – generally in the form of tools, products, websites, or bulletins – are an important part of improving our capacity to manage climate-related risks.

The conference convened the international community of practice to: • Assess the current state of play in the design, implementation, and results/ impact of climate services • Share knowledge, lessons learned, and emerging examples of good practices • Identify gaps and challenges to be addressed in future work • Promote coordination and collaboration among climate service stakeholders

CONFERENCE PROCEEDINGS

Conference presentations discussed topics related to the production and use of climate services in a range of social and economic sectors. A summary of the main themes is presented below, along with the conference statement and the abstracts.

Building Resilience The presentations in this theme covered a wide range of topics. There are many opportunities for the agricultural sector to make use of climate services to improve farming practices and, in turn, increase yields and profitability. During this session, researchers noted the declining trend of ground water due to over-extraction of ground water, natural factors like low permeability of upper layer, topography with steep slope, and climatic factors like short duration intense spells of rainfall in recent years. In examples in India, both climate and changes in agricultural practices are causing low productivity by smallholder farmers. Solutions to these issues include increasing access to climate information and crop insurance. Climate information must be customized for the context and have integrated approaches for dissemination, including two-way feedback loops.

National development planning that includes climate services is key to ensuring countries are able to adapt to climate change. The FAO and the World Bank are both developing tools that can be used to screen for climate risk. CCAFS South East Asia developed a framework for use in Vietnam to identify the risk zones based on normal to extreme rainfall conditions. In addition to tools, it is important to connect to the policy frameworks at the country level by using processes such as the National Framework for Climate Services. Country ownership of the process and multi-disciplinary collaborations are important for these processes to succeed and remain sustainable.

The context of the use of climate information must be well understood in order to improve its use. This was demonstrated at the regional level in both East Africa and South Asia. One approach to deepening contextual knowledge is through understanding climate change risk perceptions. International collaboration aids in more quickly improving the use

3 of climate information and will enhance the economic opportunities they help to create.

Institutions at all levels can support the development and use of climate services. In many indigenous societies, local institutions of different forms are important for decision making. Informal institutions and civil organizations, such as youth and women’s groups, religious entities, and student groups, play a role in transferring knowledge. These institutions could provide pathways for climate services at the local level. At the regional level in Europe, the Climateurope project is managing a framework to coordinate, integrate and support European research and innovation activities to increase engagement in climate services across many different types of stakeholders. At the national level, it is important for institutions implementing climate services to understand governance structures that support climate services. At the global level, there has been a shift towards humanitarian action in advance of, rather than after disaster occurrences. With the right forecast information, the impact-based forecasting (IBF) approach can provide concrete information about when and where disaster impacts are expected.

State of Knowledge Presentations in the state of knowledge sessions included many different engaging topics. In order for climate services to be successful, a strong understanding is needed from both the user and producer. GFCS is supporting producers of climate services via a framework that will standardize climate service delivery and quality. The GFCS is engaging WMO Members (NMHS) and development partners to enhance capacity and in turn, improve development, resilience and adaptation outcomes. Regional organizations can also play a key role in capacity building at the NMHS level. Training resources are required on the user side to understand products such as seasonal forecasts, which are complex and

4 expressed as probabilities. The ASPIRE project has created videos that are relevant for audiences across the globe.

An integrated strategic approach was adapted to reach out to farmers in Bihar, involving the understanding of decision processes in which climate information is used and tailoring climate information to address specific needs of farmers. These examples taught us that proper communication is needed between users and producers, adaptation needs to be context specific, and providers need to be able to communicate clearly about any shortcomings of their information.

Improved climate projections will lead to improved decision making, when they are well communicated and understood. Research targeted at improving projections in different parts of the world were shared during this session. Some of their findings are as follows. The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a major predictive source in the sub seasonal to seasonal (S2S) timescale. Sri Lanka is located in the heart of MJO influence envelope, therefore integration of S2S information in seasonal outlooks provides much greater value to decision-makers in the agriculture, water resources management, and energy sector. Climate change scenarios for Nepal were developed as a part of the National Adaptation Plan (NAP) process lead by the Ministry of Forests and Environment (MOFE). The scenarios can be helpful in designing adaptation plans for different sectors but the plan should be flexible enough to take into account the uncertainties. Tailored information will help to improve climate services in support of regional to national level mitigation and adaptation strategies.

5 State of Practice A final theme of the conference touched on the state of practice around climate services. There has been an evolution in climate services from strictly public sector initiatives to those incorporating a business enterprise dimension. IFAD has a portfolio of projects called the Adaptation for Smallholder Agriculture Program (ASAP) that support countries to develop climate services that enable farmers to make informed business decisions, better manage risk, take advantage of favorable climate conditions, and adapt to change.

In Senegal, the opportunity to incorporate business with weather and climate information (WCIS) initiatives include Index insurance, text messaging, agricultural packaging, tourism, and TV shows. Future plans include assessment of the market opportunities, stakeholder engagements with workshops and meetings, downscaling the WCIS, and legislation on climate services. Public-private partnerships must be utilized to take advantage of business opportunities related to weather and climate. WMO needs to work closely with all public-private partners to address the issue of the capacity gap between developed and developing countries. As climate services become more commercialized, the lack of regulation poses risks to the future of climate services and adaptation. However, with regulation, commercialization would strengthen the field’s legitimacy and uptake and would protect climate service providers and users.

Another session covered research on the ways that users’ needs can be better understood. In many cases, there are gaps between research and practice. Farmers use indigenous knowledge to predict the weather. Scientific knowledge should be integrated with this indigenous knowledge in order to improve agricultural production, changing farming practices and increasing food security. Trainings including joint exercises with the users and producers of knowledge are helpful to close the gaps. Targeting information to the level at which the stakeholder works is also helpful as national level stakeholders will need different information from the last-mile stakeholder. An assessment of climate information products showed that there are major improvements needed and could be done through engaging stakeholders in an iterative process to develop the products.

Monitoring and evaluation of climate services must be conducted so that we can continue to improve and ensure that climate service products are providing value to the end users. The quality of climate information must be assessed. An analytical framework to assess climate information has been

6 developed which will help improve its interpretation in the context of societal decision making. Once quality climate information is developed, it is important to determine if it is useable in the format it is transmitted.

There are many unique challenges facing the successful communication of climate services. Climate models are the main tool to provide information on future climate, but they are often difficult to communicate and interpret for those without a background in climate science. New avenues for communicating climate information to farmers have been successful. Mobile technologies and radio have been able to reach many more people than agricultural extension services alone.

Sectoral Focus The sectoral focus theme included sessions on climate and health, agriculture and food security, and coastal climate services.

Climate and Health: Climate services for health focus on bringing professionals from diverse sectors together to support the understanding of weather and climate influences on health outcomes and service delivery. The progress made in this field is demonstrated by the strong public and political interest and demands for furthering the understanding of climate impacts on health. To continue the progress, we need to train multidisciplinary researchers. A particular climate related health risk of increasing concern is heat related deaths. Research has focused on better predicting heat waves so that the public can be warned and given proactive information about how to stay safe. Heat stress adaptation planning is being developed to help make Delhi city more resilient towards heat stress. An urban heat alarm pilot provides warnings to citizens along with tips on how to protect yourself. The recommendations for the future are to develop a surveillance mechanism in rural areas to monitor heat- related morbidity and mortality upgrade infrastructure to respond to heat stress, and to utilize community radio to keep the public informed. Some challenges and limitations are the documentation and implementation of successful community intervention strategies and the ability of the public to Interpret warnings and vulnerability assessments.

Agriculture and Food Security: Smallholder farmers are vulnerable to many climate related risks, impacting their productivity and livelihoods. An abundance of research has been conducted to determine best practices for climate smart agriculture. Information must be location specific and tailored to the context in order to be successful. Financial tools were successful in India when bundled

7 together as insurance and financial solutions along with advisories including climate information. Digital advisories have been piloted to help overcome crop disease, extreme weather events such as cyclones and floods, and climate variability. To be successful, these advisories need to be understandable to the audience and easily accessible. The resulting actions based on the advisories have to be well defined in order for the farmers to successfully implement them. The Participatory Integrated Climate Services for Agriculture (PICSA) process has been utilized in many countries in order to integrate climate into the agriculture extension services. The training of trainers model is effective because it makes use of existing networks and is farmer centric, resulting in high success rates.

Coastal Climate Services: Sea level rise due to climate change threatens coastal regions around the globe. Climate services can help communities build resilience. Building capacities for Adaptation to Sea- level rise through Information, Education and Communication for coastal communities (BASIEC) is a framework for integrating information, communication and education through the lens of climate change and sea-level rise. Accurate projections of sea level rise are another important component of helping communities adapt. New projections have been developed for Bangladesh to facilitate impact and vulnerability assessments. Bangladesh is also vulnerable because it has the world’s largest flooded wetland that is well suited for aquaculture and fisheries. Aquaculture will benefit from climate services that help manage risks. Focus group discussions showed that farmers are interested in context specific climate services that will enhance resilience to climate variability. Suggestions regarding pond preparation, fingerling stocking, feeding, applying input materials and harvesting will help build resilience when based on accurate climate information.

CONFERENCE STATEMENT

The sixth International Conference on Climate Services was held in Pune, India, on the campus of the Indian Institute for Tropical Meteorology, February 11-13, 2020.

Ten years after the third World Climate Conference launched the Global Framework for Climate Services, ICCS 6 provided an opportunity to reflect on the progress that the climate services community had made over the last decade, as well as on outstanding challenges. More than 200+ people traveled from 22 countries and across India to participate in the conference.

Over the course of two and a half days, conference participants took stock of recent progress on the development and use of climate services; they recognized a need to improve the use of climate services to build resilience and address climate change adaptation at scale.

They used conference discussions as a basis to articulate the priority actions needed to ensure that recent advances are effectively put to use, in a changing policy landscape, in ways that target and are commensurate with the scale and urgency of the climate challenge.

Key conclusions are articulated below.

With respect to climate information, conference participants recognized important improvements, and exciting research opportunities, related to the quality of both long-term and near-term climate information. Moving forward, they highlighted the need for capacity building on how to generate and use this information, and on the need to further develop professional standards, or otherwise certify the information provided by the growing range of climate information providers.

With respect to climate service practice, conference participants recognize significant progress with respect to the co-production of climate information. They are hopeful that existing and emerging practice can support efforts to bring pilot projects to scale. They are aware of the important role that particularly national institutions play in supporting these efforts and are encouraged by growing ranks of social scientists who have entered the fray in order to help understand and respond to users’ needs in a variety of ways.

Conference participants recognized a great deal of work still needed to ensure that the work of our community translates to substantive gains in climate resilience. This requires balancing concerns about current and futures risks, and nimbly adapting to needs and priorities at local, national, regional and global actors.

Finally, making real progress on climate resilience will require the climate service community to get serious about evaluation – and while conference participants recognize a great deal of progress on this topic over the last decade, they also acknowledge the need for rapid advancement.

Moving forward, participants agreed to work separately and collaboratively to advance on these issues. Within a changing institutional landscape, they articulate next steps under the following headings:

1. Understanding – The CS community should continue to work to improve our understanding of the climate system and its impacts on the human and natural environment, including by building capacity among CS providers. At the same time, the community should increase efforts to increase the ability of users to understand and apply that information, including through improved practice.

2. Planning – Building off years of experience, the CS community is excited to continue to find and refine the methods by which climate information is incorporated into planning and decision making. In particular, this will involve adapting public and private institutions to incorporate information and respond to new challenges. Strong evidence of the socioeconomic benefits of different approaches will be essential to this.

3. Financial – Funding needed to support this work will need to come from both the public and private sector. While some efforts have been made to mobilize and bridge these communities, further work is a top priority. Identifying and enacting business models to support sustainable climate services is imperative to creating a climate-resilient future.

The climate services community has evolved since before the term “climate services” was in use. Professionals within this community are drawn from research and practice; the private sector; government, intergovernmental, and non-governmental organizations; and from a range of disciplines.

While the institutions that support our community have and will continue to change, we as a group remain committed to coming together to share knowledge and experience, learn from each other and speed our path to a more climate-resilient future.

Appendix 1: Agenda

Tuesday, February 11 9 :30am – 10:15am Opening Ceremony Speakers: M. Mohapatra, M. Rajeevan, Steve Zebiak, Filipe Lucio, Archana Shukla 10:15am – 10:30am Conference Roadmap Speaker: Cathy Vaughan 10:30am – 10:45am Taking Stock of Climate Services Speaker: Joseph Daron 10:45pm – 11:00pm WMO in the 21st Century Speaker: Filipe Lucio 11:30am – 12:15pm Climate Services for Climate Resilience Speaker: A. Atiq Rahman, Look Back to Look Forward: Climate Information Science and Services 12:15pm – 1:00pm Advances in Climate Science for Climate Services Speakers: M. Rajeevan, Krishnan Ragvahan • World Climate Research Program: Krishnan Raghavan • Monsoon Mission: India’s Quantum Leap in Research and Applications: M. Rajeeva Predicting Future Climate 2:00pm – B usiness Models for Climate Services 3:30pm Speakers: Kisa Mfalila, Ousmane Ndiaye, Jillian Schacher, Filipe Lucio

Climate Services for Resilient Development I Speakers: Ana Bucher, Md. Tarikul Islam, Nizamuddin Khan, Prasun Gangopadhyay Climate and Health Speakers: Jente Broeckx, Ardhasena Sopaheluwakan, Joy Shumake Building Capacity for Climate Services 4:00pm –5:30pm Speakers: Jessica Stacey, Ashley Curtis, Filipe Lucio, Anshul Agarwal, Mandira Singh Shrestha U nderstanding Users’ Needs Speakers: Julio Araujo, Ravi Shankar Kuntamukkala, Diana Giraldo, Yacine Fall, Geethalakshmi Vellingiri, Mehri Khosravi Cl imate Services to Foster Resilient Development II: PPCR Perspective Speakers:Sp Tshencho Dorji, Irina Zakharova, Anacleto Duvane, Kazi Ahmed, Shiva Nepal, Ana HBuchereat Hea lth Speakers: Joy Shumake, Andreas Matzarakis, Subhash Bhan, Dipak Zade, Hunter Jones

11 Wednesday, February 12 9 :30am – 9:45am Welcome and Overview of Day 2 Speaker: Roger Pulwarty 9:45am – 11:00am Climate Services in Asia Speakers: Rajeev Mehajan, Mir Matin, Govindarajalu Srinivasan, Sanjay Srivastava, David Corbelli

Climate Projections for Improved Decisions

11:30am – 1:00pm Speakers: Joseph Daron, Md Saquib Saharwardi, Kiran PV, Lola Kotova, Harilaos Loukos, Santosh Nepal, Shiromani Jayawardena Monitoring and Evaluation of Climate Services Speakers: Marta Bruno Soares, Marina Baldissera Pacchetti, Ousmane Ndiaye, T.S Amjath Babu, ClHenim-aI teLin S ervices for National Development Planning Speakers: Speakers: Tufa Dinku, Sridhar Gummadi, Hideki Kanamaru, Ana Bucher, Chiaping Cheng Agriculture and Food Security I Speakers: Steve Zebiak, Srinivasa Rao Gattineni, Ramaraj Palanisamy, Tasiana Mzozo, Moin Salam 2:00pm – 3:30pm Assessing the Socio-Economic Benefits of Climate Services Speakers: Marta Bruno Soares, Natalie Suckall Contextualizing Climate Information Speakers: Caroline Staub, Sam Poskitt, Grit Martinez, Quentin Lejeune Supporting the Development of Regional Climate Services Speakers: Anna Steynor, Joseph Daron, Sam Grainger, Laxman Singh Rathore, Chiaping Cheng Agriculture and Food Security II Speakers: Steve Zebiak, Diana Giraldo, Niaz Nishat, Tufa Dinku, Jim Hansen, Viengxai Manivong Climate Services Information System 4:00pm – 5:30pm Speakers: Roger Pulwarty, Pai Sivananda, Govindarajalu Srinivasan, Aneta Nikolova Co-Production in Practice Speakers: Anna Steynor, Christopher Jack, Julio Araujo Institutional Support for Climate Services Speakers: Chanthingla Horam, Lola Kotova, Cathy Vaughan, Lorena Pasquini, Ahmadul Hassan Agriculture and Food Security III Speakers: Steve Zebiak, Moin Salam, Marta Bruno Soares, Bharti Suthar, Peter Dorward, P Sujatha

Thursday, February 13 9:30am – 9:45am Welcome and Overview of Day 3 Speaker: David Corbelli 9:45am – 10:30am Improving Climate Service Practice Speakers: Steven Prager, Anna Steynor 10:30am – 12:00pm Advancing the Communication of Climate Science Speakers: Joseph Daron, Archita Bhatta, Graham Clarkson, Viengxai Manivong Considering Climate Service Ethics Speakers: Jillian Schacher, Christopher Jack, Marina Baldissera Pacchetti Coastal Climate Services Speakers: Saleem Khan, Peerzadi Rumana Hossain, Benjamin Harrison, Poonam Pillai 12:00pm – 12:30pm Synthesis Panel Speakers: Ana Bucher, Archana Shukla, Filipe Lucio 12:30pm – 12:45pm Presentation of Conference Statement Speaker: Steve Zebiak

Appendix 2: Side Events Side Events Monday, February 10 Scaling up climate services through policy and communications

Monday, February 10 Consultation Workshop on Maintaining e-Platform on Weather and Climate Services for Resilient Development Monday, February 10 Development of a Regional Climate Change Forum in South Asia

Wednesday, February 13 Nextgen Agro-advisory Services to Support Farm Level Decision Making

Wednesday, February 13 Scaling up Action on Climate-informed Digital Farmer Advisory Services: Global Commission on Adaptation Action Track on Agriculture and Food Security Thursday, February 14 South Asia Heat Health Summit

Appendix 3: Participants

Name Institution Location 1 Ajinkya M. A. IITM, Pune Regional Integrated Multi-hazard Early-warning Bangkok Metropolitan Area, 2 Anshul Agarwal System for Asia and Africa Thailand 3 Pramod Aggarwal CCAFS New Delhi Area, India 4 Ila Agnihotri IITM New Delhi Area, India 5 Kazi Ahmed World Bank 6 Oluwaseyi Ajala Punjabi Univerisity, Patiala India 7 Mohd akbar Ali University of Allahabad Allahābād, Uttar Pradesh 8 Prakash Almeida KnowledgeFountain LLP Mumbai Area, India 9 Boddapati Anil Vassar labs IT Solutions Hyderabad, Telangana 10 Julio Araujo SouthSouthNorth South Africa 11 T.S Amjath Babu CIMMYT Bangladesh 12 Chandra Bahinipati Indian Institute of Technology, Tirupati India 13 Arti Bandgar India Meteorological Department Pune, Maharashtra, India 14 Angus Barnes CSIRO Australia 15 Anas Ibnu Basheer IITM Malappuram, Kerala, India 16 Andrea Berardo World Food Programme Colombo, Western 17 Subhash Bhan India Meteorological Department New Delhi 18 Ankit Bhandekar Mumbai 19 Saurabh Bhardwaj The Energy and Resources Institute India 20 Archita Bhatta Vigyan Prasar India 21 Jente Broeckx VITO Belgium 22 Ana Bucher The World Bank US 23 Pramit Deb Burman Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology Pune, Maharashtra 24 Bruce Campbell CCAFA Sealand Region, Denmark 25 Kung-Yueh Camyale Chao International Climate Development Institute Taipei City, Taiwan 26 Sarthak Chatterjee IIT KHARAGPUR 27 Rajib Chattopadhyay IITM Pune Pune Area, India 28 Chiaping Cheng Central Weather Bureau, Taiwan Taiwan 29 Rituparna Chowdhury IITM 30 Graham Clarkson University of Reading UK 31 David Corbelli Met Office UK 32 Rhea Cordeiro OPML New Delhi, Delhi, India 33 Ashley Curtis IRI / Columbia University US 34 Sujaya Dangwar Watershed Organisation Trust India 35 Joseph Daron Met Office UK 36 Manasi Desai Department of Geography Pune Area, India 37 Atri Deshamukhya Assam university, silchar Silchar Area, India 38 Avijit Dey IITM India 39 Chirag Dhara 40 Amit Dhorde S P Pune University Pune, Maharashtra, India 41 Tufa Dinku Columbia University US 42 Sandeep Dixit Centers for International Projects Trust 43 Padmakar Domatwar 44 Tshencho Dorji National Center For Hydrology & Meteorology Bhutan 45 Peter Dorward University Of Reading UK Indian Institute of Science Education and 46 Aditya Kumar Dubey Research Bhopal Bhopal, Madhya Pradesh Indian Institute of Science Education and 47 Swatantra Dubey Research Bhopal, India India 48 Anacleto Duvane National Institute of Meteorology, Mozambique Mozambique 49 Marie Aude Even IFAD Ghana 50 Yacine Fall WMO_NORCAP Niger 51 Tyler Ferdinand World Resources Institute 52 Prasun Gangopadhyay CIMMYT India 53 John Gathenya Jomo Kenyatta University of Agric & Tech Nairobi, Nairobi Area SYNGENTA FOUNDATION FOR SUSTAINABLE 54 Srinivasa Rao Gattineni AGRICULTURE India 55 Rizwan Ghasura NAU Navsari 56 Madhav Gholkar Watershed Organisation Trust (WOTR) India 57 Diana Giraldo University of Reading UK 58 Sam Grainger Maynooth University Dublin 59 Sridhar Gummadi CCAFS Vietnam 61 Chayana Gunathilake 62 Chayana Gunatillake Federation for Environment, Climate and Technology, Kandy, Sri Lanka Institute of Environment and Sustainable 63 Priyanshu Gupta Development India Kwame Nkrumah University of Science and 64 Benji Gyampoh Technology Ghana 65 Harshad Hanmante 66 Jim Hansen IRI US 67 Benjamin Harrison Met Office UK 68 Ahmadul Hassan Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre Bangladesh 69 Chris Hewitt Met Office UK 70 Dipti Hingmire IITM, Pune India

14 71 Chanthingla Horam Indian Institute of Bombay India 72 Md Sahadat Hossain Stamford University Bangladesh Bangladesh 73 Peerzadi Rumana Hossain WorldFish Bangladesh 74 Md. Tarikul Islam Institute of Water Modelling Bangladesh 75 Christopher Jack University of Cape Town South Africa 76 Harikishan Jayanthi FEWS NET USGS EROS Hyderabad, Telangana, India 77 Dhanasree Jayaram Manipal Academy of Higher Education India 78 Shiromani Jayawardena Department of Meteorology Sri Lanka Washington, District Of 79 Hunter Jones NOAA Columbia 80 Jacob JOSEPH ICRISAT India 81 Susmitha Joseph IITM 82 Ugalechumi K ICRISAT Hyderabad, Telangana, India 83 Mahesh Kalshetti IITM Pune, Maharashtra 84 Hideki Kanamaru FAO Thailand 85 Radhika Kanase IITM India UK Foreign Commonwealth and Development 86 Harjeet Kaur Office (FCDO) Delhi, Delhi 87 Manpreet Kaur INDIAN INSTITUTE OF TROPICAL METEOROLOGY Pune, Maharashtra, India 88 Seema Kawade Pune University Pune Area, India 89 Nizamuddin Khan Department of Geography Aligarh uttar pradesh 90 Safa Khan OPML 91 Saleem Khan Indo German Center for Sustainability Chennai, Tamil Nadu 92 Mehri Khosravi University of Leeds UK 93 Rupakumar Kolli IITM Pune, Maharashtra, India 94 Lola Kotova Climate Service Center Germany (GERICS) Hamburg 95 R Phani Murali Krishna Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology Pune, Maharashtra, India 96 Tim Krupnik CIMMYT Bangladesh 97 Ashwini Kulkarni IITM 98 Akshay Kumar Ministry of Health and Family Welfare Uttar Pradesh, India 99 Amrit Kumar Amity University Haryana Gurugram 100 Chandra Kumar SIDBI Chennai Area, India Bhopal, Madhya Pradesh, 101 Pankaj Kumar IISER Bhopal, India India 102 Praveen Kumar Central University of South Bihar Patna, Bihar 103 Vineet kumar IITM Pune, Maharashtra Indian Institute of Science Education and 104 Amita Kumari Research Bhopal India 105 kalik Kumar IITM 106 Koteswararao Kundeti Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology Pune, Maharashtra Ravi Shankar Central Research Institute For Dryland 107 Kuntamukkala Agriculture India 108 Quentin Lejeune Climate Analytics Germany 109 Hen-I Lin Chung-Hua Institution for Economic Research Taiwan 110 Johnny Lin 111 Harilaos Loukos The Climate Data Factory France 112 Filipe Lucio World Meteorological Organization Switzerland 113 Utsav Maden ICIMOD Nepal

15 114 Nilesh Mahale KBC North Maharashtra University Jalgaon, Maharashtra, India 115 Raju Mandal IITM 116 Shailendra Mandal National Institute of Technology Patna, India India 117 Sujata Mandke Indian Institute Of Tropical Meteorology Department of Meteorology and Hydrology 118 Viengxai Manivong (DMH), Lao PDR Laos 119 Tatiana Marrufo Instituto Nacional de Saúde Ecologic Institute Berlin & University of 120 Grit Martinez Maryland, Department of Anthropology Germany International Centre for Integrated Mountain 121 Mir Matin Development Nepal 122 Andreas Matzarakis German Meteorological Service Germany Dr. Rajeev Kumar 123 Mehajan SERB, Department of Science and Technology New Delhi, Delhi SERB - A statutory R&D body of DST, Govt of 124 Rajeev Mehajan India New Delhi, Delhi, India 125 Kisa Mfalila IFAD New Delhi, Delhi 126 Soma Mishra JRF Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial 127 Pat Mitchell Research Organisation Hobart, Tasmania 128 M. Mohapatra DGM 129 Sumit Mukherjee 130 Utkarsh Mukkannawar Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology Pune, Maharashtra 131 Santosh Muriki The Energy and Resources Institute India 132 Jacob Myers Walker Institute UK 133 Ville Myllynpää University of Turku Finland 134 Tasiana Mzozo NORCAP Malawi 135 Dada Nade Sanjay Ghodawat University, Kolhapur 136 R. Nanjundiah Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology 137 Ravi Nanjundiah Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology 138 Ousmane Ndiaye ANACIM Senegal International Centre for Integrated Mountain 139 Santosh Nepal Development Nepal 140 Shiva Nepal Department of Hydrology and Meteorology Kathmandu, Central Region 141 Aneta Nikolova UNESCAP Thailand 142 Niaz Nishat Bangladesh Rice Research Institute Bangladesh 143 Siddhant Nowlakha Azim Premji University, Bengaluru Bengaluru 144 Alexis Nzeyimana Rwanda Meteorology Agency Rwanda 145 HRUDYA P.H. University of Calicut Marina Baldissera 146 Pacchetti University of Leeds UK 147 Arun Padiyar WorldFish 148 Pradnya Paithankar WFP New Delhi, Delhi, India 149 Ramaraj Palanisamy ICRISAT Hyderabad, Telangana 150 Kailash Pandey Geag, India India 151 Manas Pant Banaras Hindu University India 152 Avinash Parde IITM Pune, Maharashtra 153 Lorena Pasquini CSAG / University of Cape Town South Africa 154 Purvi Patel National Center for Disease Control Hyderabad, Telangana, India

16 155 Anand Patwardhan University of Maryland Mumbai, Maharashtra, India 156 Moncia Petri 157 Anuradha Phadtare Watershed Organisation Trust United States 158 Poonam Pillai World Bank India 159 Sam Poskitt University of Reading UK 160 Steven Prager Alliance Bioversity CIAT Colombia 161 Pithani Prakash IITM IITM CADME (Coastal Area Disaster Mitigation 162 Meda Gurudutt Prasad Efforts) Rajahmundry Area, India Association of Disaster Risk Management 163 Kehelella Premalal Professionals (ADRiMP) Sri Lanka National Oceanic and Atmospheric 164 Roger Pulwarty Administration Greater Denver Area 165 Kiran PV Indian Institute of Technology Madras India 166 Krishnan Ragvahan Indian Institute for Tropical Meteorology Muhammad Abdur 167 Rahaman Center for People and Environment Bangladesh 168 A. Atiq Rahman Bangladesh Centre for Advanced Studies Bangladesh 169 Rengalakshmi Raj M.S.Swaminathan Research Foundation Chennai, Tamil Nadu 170 M. Rajeevan Secretary Coimbatore, Tamil Nadu, 171 Gowtham Ramasamy TNAU India 172 Karuturi P C Rao ICRISAT 173 Karuturi Rao Icrisat Hyderabad, Telangana, India 174 Neethi Rao Azim Premji University, Bangalore Bengaluru, Karnataka 175 Abdur Rashid Center for Environmental and Geographic Information Services International Centre for Integrated Mountain 176 Ghulam Rasul Development Nepal 177 Laxman Singh Rathore The World Bank Jaipur, Rajasthan 178 Brighu Ravi CropIn Technology India Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, IITM, 179 Jayashree Revadekar Pune, India Pune, Maharashtra, India International Research Institute for Climate and 180 Alison Rose Society US 181 Rakesh S Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology Pune, Maharashtra 182 Sanjoy Saha IITM 183 Md Saquib Saharwardi IISER BHOPAL India 184 Moin Salam CIMMYT Bangladesh Dhaka, Dhaka 185 ashis kumarr Samanta SAARC Agriculture centre Bangladesh 186 Pradhan Parth Sarthi Central University of South Bihar, Gaya Nalanda, Bihar, India 187 Harshita Saxena University of Allahabad India 188 Jillian Schacher University of Leeds UK 189 Wiebke Schubotz Climate Services Center Germany Germany 190 Sutirtha Sengupta UCSC/LBNL US 191 Richa Sharma PHFI Delhi, Delhi 192 Anand K Sheelvanth Research Scholar 193 Prasad Shelke IIT Bombay Pune, Maharashtra, India 194 Yashas Shivamurthy INDIAN INSTITUTE OF TROPICAL METEOROLOGY Pune, Maharashtra 195 Mandira Singh Shrestha ICIMOD Nepal

17 UK Foreign Commonwealth and Development 196 Archana Shukla Office (FCDO) New Delhi, Delhi 197 Joy Shumake World Meteorological Organization Geneva Area, Switzerland Bhupendra Bahadur 198 Singh IITM Pune Pune Area, India 199 Madhu Singh ERPAS Group, IITM Centre for Climate Change Research, Indian 200 Manmeet Singh Institute of Tropical Meteorology Pune Area, India 201 Surendra Pratap Singh IITM India 202 Yim Ling Siu University of Leeds UK 203 Pai Sivananda India Meteorological Department India 204 Marta Bruno Soares University of Leeds UK 205 Ram Sonwane RAM0910 India Ardhasena 206 Sopaheluwakan BMKG Indonesia Regional Integrated Multi-hazard Early-warning 207 Govindarajalu Srinivasan System for Asia and Africa Thailand Bangkok Metropolitan Area, 208 Sanjay Srivastava Thailand Thailand 209 Nimya SS IITM Mohali, Punjab, India 210 Jessica Stacey Met Office UK 211 Caroline Staub University of Florida US Climate System Analysis Group, University of 212 Anna Steynor Cape Town South Africa 213 Natalie Suckall University of Leeds UK 214 P Sujatha ICRISAT 215 Koyel Sur Punjab Remote Sensing Center Full-time India 216 Divya E. Surendran India Meteorological Department Pune 217 Bharti Suthar International Crops Research Institute for the Semi-Arid Tropics, 218 Premsagar Tasgaonkar Tata Institute of Social Sciences, Mumbai Satara, Maharashtra 219 A D Tathe National Data Centre, IMD, Pune New Delhi Area, India 220 Amit Timilsina Nepal Agriculture Research Council Nepal 221 Abhiyant Tiwari Indian Institute of Public Health Gandhinagar India 222 Alpha Toure Aidd 223 Archana Tripathy IIT Delhi Baleswar, Orissa, India 224 Jackie Turner 225 Lakshmikumar TV SRM Institute of Science and Technology Chennai, Tamil Nadu 226 Ajit Tyagi IRADe New Delhi Area, India 227 Matilde Ungerovich Instituto Uruguayo de Meteorología Uruguay 228 Vinu Valsala IITM 229 Cathy Vaughan IRI / Columbia University US Department of Environment, Government of 230 Prutha Vaze Maharasht Mumbai, Maharashtra, India 231 Geethalakshmi Vellingiri Tamil Nadu Agricultural University 232 Utkarsh Verma Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology Pune, Maharashtra 233 Amol Vibhute IITM Pune Pune, Maharashtra 234 Anthony Whitbread ICRISAT India 235 Chan Xiao China Meteorological Administration China 236 Sophia Yacob IITM

18 237 Droupti Yadav CSJM University Kanpur Uttar Pradesh, India 238 Chin-Wen Yang Chung-Hua Institution for Economic Research Taiwan 239 Gerard Yenumula ICAR 240 Dipak Zade Watershed Organisation Trust (WOTR) Pune, Maharashtra 241 Irina Zakharova Tajikistan 242 Steve Zebiak IRI US

19 Appendix 4: Abstracts

Building Resilience: Climate Services for Resilient Development 1

Md. Tarikul Islam Nizzamuddin Khan Hussein Mohamed Prasun Gangopadhyay Ana Bucher

Session Lead: Ana Bucher, World Bank

Climate Resilient and Sustainable Water Resources Management in Bangladesh: A Case study in Barind Area Md. Tarikul Islam, Institute of Water Modelling (IWM), Bangladesh

North-West region spreads over the 16 districts of Bangladesh which is bounded by the Brahmaputra river in the east and the Ganges in the west. About 35% of Boro rice and more than 60% of the wheat and maize of the whole country’s production is from this area. Declining of groundwater levels, is a major concern for Barind area of Northwest region which have resulted in a lack of access to water for drinking and irrigation. Under different projects, we have estimated water demand for current and future cropping scenarios, and the sustainable limit of water use in the region by water balance and groundwater modelling. With limited opportunities for surface water (SW) irrigation, at present there are about 9,531 DTWs and 107,707 STWs (BADC, 2016) in Barind area. Study results shows some upazilas as resource constraint and declining groundwater table. In the next 25 years, food demand of the country is expected to be increased by 29% which will require increased cropping intensity. Without increasing the SW irrigation, added pressure on groundwater will lead to further depletion of the sources. Reduction of SW flows and lowering of groundwater table combined with impact of climate change will aggravate the existing water scarcity problem. All these have compounded the sustainable management of water in this area. To overcome these complex issues, will require a proper management of surface water and groundwater in an integrated approach. Increasing use of SW, rainwater harvesting, enhancing artificial groundwater recharge, crop diversification for introducing less water consuming crops and optimize use of groundwater for irrigation can minimize the impact of drought and climate change. Regional cooperation can guarantee a sustainable future in terms of water availability since the basin areas of the river systems is dissected by international boundaries. A strong political commitment supported by adequate institutional arrangement is required. This paper will describe the technology for climate resilient water resources management as well as impact on groundwater table, in this region.

Integrated Farming System: An Approach towards Making Climate Change Resilient Agriculture in Trans- Ghaghra Region of Uttar Pradesh, India Nizamuddin Khan, Aligarh Muslim University

Indian agriculture witnessed a dramatic change in its character in term of area, production, system, farmer’s structure and economic viability and environmental sustainability. Country elevated to self- food sufficiency from scarcity and hunger during seventy years of independence. Green Revolution, a technocratic, water and capital intensive agriculture programme resulted in various form of negative

20 Appendix 4: Abstracts

effects along with bumper food production. Development of monocrop (paddy and wheat) cultivation, water intensive farming system i.e vegetables, increasing cropping intensity and mechanization agriculture and loss crop and animal biodiversity are excellent and serious agronomic challenges for both farmers and Indian agriculture in 21st century. Traditional integrated livestock –cropping system, various agricultural practices as inter-cropping, mixed cropping, crop rotation, green manuring and crop rotation have almost disappeared from Indian farming system after modernization and commercialization of agriculture. Decline in livestock number especially in Trans Ghaghra region of Eastern Uttar Pradesh resulted in loss of manures, farmer’s income, and employment, increasing cost of cooking food and soil nutrition. Water demand in soil after deep ploughing by tractor, loss of crop by - products usable for livestock husbandry and increasing atmospheric pollution by burning crop residues are another issues responsible for disturbance agriculture ecology and environ. Development of market oriented farming system transformed old land use pattern, adapted to local agronomic condition, to mono cash crops like sugarcane, vegetables and fruits at the cost of food crop area, challenged the food security and social inequality in the area. The study area is experiencing in shifting sowing period due to erratic and shifting weather condition / seasons. Wet and dry spell period are expanding which resulted in failure or low productivity of crop grown. Cost of production of also tends to enhance due to use of artificial irrigation to face the vagaries of weather. Livestock husbandry is also discouraged on account mechanization of agriculture, consequently crop stubble are usually burnt by farmers after harvest as a result of decline in demand for fodder to animals. Integrated farming system involving combination of dairy farming, cropping, forestry, poultry and aquaculture appears a solution to mitigate emerging challenges of climate change, ecological disturbances, unemployment, and poverty and water depilation of both surface and underground in the area. Reviving of indigenous farming practices, growing extinct coarse grains and pulses along with rearing of small ruminant animals would be smart agriculture climate change and socio-economic resilient. It will enhance productivity, intensity, sustainability and ensure food security as well as reduction in poverty.

Building Rural Communities Resilient to Climate Change Impacts: Knowledge and Adaptation Mechanism in Mbande Village, Tanzania Hussein Mohamed, Muhimbli University of Health and Allied Sciences Tanzania

Abstract Building Rural Communities Resilient to Climate Change Impacts: Knowledge and Adaptation Mechanism in Mbande Village, Tanzania. Background Adaptation is an essential element of human response to climate change. The adverse impacts of climate change will be experienced severely in developing countries including Tanzania. Water, Sanitation and Hygiene subsector is one of the potential vulnerable area where climate change is anticipated to affect most. Evidence indicates that climate sensitive water-borne diseases have been have been reported in Tanzania. Mbande village rely on single borehole as the only water source to serve the ever growing population estimated at 7,000. The village is a very dry with a recorded highest precipitation of only 124 mm. Communities rely on buying water from vendors for drinking. In 2016, the Ministries of water and health with support from WHO trained Mbande communities on Climate Resilient Water Safety Planning. Objective: The study was conducted to assess knowledge of communities on climate change and its impact on health and water sector and adaptation mechanism against waterborne diseases. Results: 140 Households were visited and interviewed about knowledge on climate change and its impacts and household water management practices of drinking water. Most of the respondents (98%) said to buy water from street water vendors. The reason why they buy drinking water is because water supplied from the only borehole in Mbande village is too salty to drink. Despite getting water from sources whose safety and quality is questionable, only 40.7 % reported to treat water at the household level mainly by boiling (86%). Majority of the respondents (65 %) explained some key concepts of climate change and how they affect health and water quality. Some respondents especially elderly (3%) explained the change in weather over time in

21 Appendix 4: Abstracts

Mbande, although some were unable to link directly with the climate change. Conclusion and recommendations: Mbande communities are prepared to adapt to climate change impacts on water quality deterioration. Majority can link climate change and impacts on health and water sector. Health education and promotion programs can help build stronger rural communities to become resilient to climate change impacts.

Coping with Climatic Uncertainties with ICT Services in Resource Poor Areas Prasun Gangopadhyay, Borlaug Institute for South Asia (BISA), International Maize and Wheat Improvement Centre (CIMMYT), India

The challenge of climate change induced hindrances to sustain agricultural productivity is immense. Particularly changes in long-term temperature regime and erratic monsoon patterns often create havoc with small and marginal farmers. This study assesses the impact of ICT based climate information services in a tribal inhabited resource poor region of India. A total of 30,000 farmers were brought under this service to provide climate information along with climate smart agriculture (CSA) technologies and practices over a period of three years. Results show that around 80% of the farmers prefer ICT based climate information services over traditional channels. Being primarily a rainfed area, farmers in the study area are highly dependent on rainfall as sowing is completely subject to the onset of monsoon. The delayed onset of monsoon in 2019 triggered more reliability of these services which is apparent from increased average duration of listening (ADL) of weather forecast over cell phone. The climate information services together with promotion of stress tolerant varieties increased the yield 13% and 22% for rice (2068 trials) and black gram (290 trials) respectively. Information on crop insurance along with climate information services has facilitated around 9,000 farmers to stay prepared for adverse conditions.

22 Appendix 4: Abstracts

Building Resilience: Climate Services for National Development Planning Tufa Dinku Sridhar Gummadi Hideki Kanamaru Ana Bucher Chia-Peng Cheng

Session lead: Filipe Lucio, World Meteorological Organization

Adapting Agriculture to Climate Today for Tomorrow(ACToday) – Implementation in Ethiopia Tufa Dinku IRI, Columbia University, United States

Adapting Agriculture to Climate Today, for Tomorrow (ACToday) is one of the projects funded by Columbia University under its initiative called Columbia World Projects (CWP). ACToday is a five-year project that is being implemented in six developing countries: Guatemala, Colombia, Senegal, Ethiopia, Bangladesh, and Vietnam. It aims to support countries in achieving their development goals related to food security and nutrition by alleviating climate-related risks. This is accomplished by identifying climate related challenges undermining country efforts to achieve food security, climate and national development goals. ACToday works directly with national governments as well as through international development partners. At the national level, ACToday supports countries in achieving their goals related to food security and nutrition. These may be expressed in their national development strategies, in food security or nutrition strategies, in climate policies, or in National Adaptation Plans. ACToday is working to determine how these plans fit together, which stakeholders are involved in the development of or support of which plans, which plans are the most relevant to government operations, to development partners’ activities, and to climate related issues. In order to avoid duplication of efforts, however, ACToday focuses on climate challenges that are not being addressed adequately by other projects.

In Ethiopia, food security and agricultural plans fall under the responsibility of the Ministry of Agriculture (MoA). Nutrition is often handled by the Ministry of Health (MoH), but due to nutrition’s relevance to agriculture, plans related to nutrition require coordination between MoL and MoH. ACToday-Ethiopia supports and works with these and other related intuitions such as the Ethiopian Institute for Agricultural Research and the National Meteorological Agency. To ensure the sustainable impact of the project and to promote and support in-country expertise, ACToday has also been supporting the creation of the National Framework for Climate Services (NFCS). The NFCS is an institutional mechanism to coordinate, facilitate and strengthen collaboration among national institutions to improve the co- production, tailoring, delivery and use of science-based climate predictions and services by focusing on the five pillars of the Global Framework for Climate Services (GFCS). Supporting and working with this process will ensure that the contributions of the ACToday project are sustainably embedded in national- level processes.

De-risk climate risks: Development and implementation of the climate-related risk mapping and adaptive planning (CS-MAP) in the Mekong River Delta Sridhar Gummadi, IRRI/CCAFS, Vietnam

23 Appendix 4: Abstracts

The Mekong River Delta (MRD) region of Vietnam is located at the downstream end of the Mekong River. The Mekong Delta is very flat and low, with an average elevation of only about 1 m above mean sea level often experiences salinity intrusion, drought, and flooding caused by El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) adversely affecting agricultural production in the area. CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security in Southeast Asia (CCAFS SEA) conducted an assessment and showed that although warnings were provided by the government before the 2016 ENSO, these were not translated into appropriate preparations and responsive actions for agriculture. To address this critical issue, the Department of Crop Production (DCP) of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development (MARD) of Vietnam, and CCAFS SEA collaborated to develop and test a participatory approach for mapping climate risks with potentially affected areas and identifying corresponding adaptive interventions (or the Climate-Smart Maps and Adaptation Plans-CS-MAP). The risks maps and adaptive interventions were developed for normal and ENSO years using technical data (i.e. topography and hydrology), infrastructures (i.e. dikes, road, and canals), and local knowledge. The application of the CS-MAP approach during the 2018-19 winter-spring rice cropping season to adjust the planting dates for about 600,000 ha of rice land showed its effectiveness in avoiding crop loss due to salinity intrusion. The successful implementation of CS-MAP in the 2018-19 winter season has created interest in developing high-resolution CS-MAP at the commune level along with a mobile application.

Building the climate evidence base for adaptation investments and planning in the agriculture sector using a climate risk portal and agronomic weather indices Hideki Kanamaru, FAO, Thailand

Major climate finance mechanisms require a “paradigm shift” in the promotion of innovations that are catalytic in introducing transformational changes with a mid to long-term perspective. Designing transformational adaptations requires a robust climate evidence base – information on climate risks, vulnerabilities and adaptive capacity of the agro-ecosystem. At the local scale, such an evidence base supports the identification of adaptation options and investments at the project level. Evidence at a larger spatial scale (sub-national to national) forms the basis for adaptation planning and policies at the national level.

In order to support countries and project developers in building the necessary climate evidence base, the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations has developed a prototype climate and agriculture risk assessment platform. The platform is an online portal which is designed to produce climate, vulnerability and impact-related information to support the identification of adaptation options as well as inform adaptation planning. The portal includes historical and future projected climate data, pre-computed and user-defined extreme weather indices as well as agronomic weather indices, agricultural production and disaster data. The system has the functionality to automatically create and download reports based on the user-selected information. The platform provides users with the highest- quality climate information, computed for use in the agriculture sector. The platform is user-friendly and allows all users to compute agro-climatic vulnerability information on the fly. Finally, the platform offers users the option to upload country owned data, in addition to the existing regional and global data sets, in order for national experts to visualize and compute information at the sub-national scale.

We will present the platform and demonstrate its application in a country, with a focus on computation of agronomic weather indices, which consist of some of the Sector-Specific Indices of WMO, and crop- specific weather indices defined for agronomic seasons. They allow analysis of changing vulnerability of crop agriculture to climate in the past and in the future, which aid more targeted adaptation planning and investments.

24 Appendix 4: Abstracts

Climate Information for Climate Smart Planning Ana Bucher, World Bank, United States The accelerating impacts of climate change, and the need to avoid much larger impacts in the future, bring urgency to scaling up action on adaptation and resilience. The World Bank Group (WBG) is making adaptation and resilience a key priority of its 2025 Climate Change Targets and commits to support the systematic climate risk management in client countries through its analytics, financing, and convening power. The successful integration of scientific information in decision making often depends on the use of flexible frameworks, data, and tools that can provide comprehensive information to a wide range of users, allowing them to evaluate how to apply the scientific information to the design of a project or policy. Developed by the WBG in 2011, the Climate Change Knowledge Portal (CCKP) is an online platform that provides easy access to comprehensive and best available climate data and information, as well as synthesized knowledge product – Climate and Risk Country Profiles. The CCKP consists of spatially and temporally referenced data. Users are able to evaluate climate-related vulnerabilities, risks, and actions for a particular location on the globe by interpreting climate and climate-related data at different levels of details.

Climate Change Adaption and Climate Services in Taiwan Chia-Peng Cheng, Central Weather Bureau

In the past few decades, climate extremes and severe weather associated with global warming and climate changes have become evident. More and more record-breaking meteorological disasters seriously impact human lives and social-economic development. In Taiwan, the yearly average of direct economical loses of nature disasters caused by typhoon, torrential rainfall and cold surge approach 600 million US dollars in recent years. In 2019, Taiwan also experienced the warmest winter in 70 years with the earliest local dengue fever case appearing in February because there was no low temperature to eliminate the mosquitos. The 8 sectors most impacted by severe weather and climate change include disaster prevention, water resources management, agriculture, health, energy, coastal & land use, and infrastructure. To mitigate the impact, Taiwan’s government initiated countermeasures by establishing an institutional structure, under the sustainable development council which is comprised of many high level central government agencies and chaired by prime minister, to boost climate change adaption activities. The Central Weather Bureau, as a NHMS, is responsible for providing science-based weather and climate monitoring and forecasting information and services to public and private sectors for climate risk management and adaption decision-making. Following the GFCS concepts and guidelines provided by WMO, CWB is able to accelerate the understanding of climate phenomena and strengthen the capabilities of climate monitoring, forecasting and services as well as engaging stakeholders to support various adaption activities. This talk will demonstrate specific meteorological information and/or products, produced for different weather or climate phenomena across difference time and space scale, which are essential for developing and applying specific adaption measures for optimal decision-making to reduce climate risk and/or create economic benefits.

25 Appendix 4: Abstracts

Building Resilience: Supporting the Development of Regional Climate Services Anna Steynor Joseph Daron Sam Grainger LS Rathore Chiaping Cheng

Session lead: Anna Steynor

Insights into the psyche of climate information use in East Africa Anna Steynor, Climate System Analysis Group, University of Cape Town, South Africa

Africa has become a major focus for climate information services efforts recently, particularly with regards to providing climate information for policy decision-making. However, often these climate services are developed with a superficial understanding of the context within which climate information is being used. This includes the reasons for the use of climate information, the predominant timescale of information used and the most used and / or desired format of climate information.

Using data collected from over 600 surveys and 36 semi-structured interviews with policy decision influencers in five countries in east Africa, this paper provides insight into the predominantly used climate information for decision making in the region. These insights include: the behavioural aspects that influence the use of different types of climate information, the predominant timescale and formats of climate information used, where the information is accessed, what it is used for and what is desired from the future climate information development for the region. This information is collated to provide a contextual picture of how and why climate information is currently used in decision making and planning in east Africa, including the psyche of planning for climate change within a developing country environment. Through a better understanding of the current use and desires from climate information, there is scope to provide climate information services that better fit the specific decision contexts of east Africa.

Improving the uptake and use of future climate projections to enhance climate change resilience in South Asia Joseph Daron, Met Office, United Kingdom

Future climate projections are a key source of information to guide long-term climate change adaptation decisions. However, with multiple models and methods used to generate projections, including global climate models, dynamical and statistical downscaling methods, each associated with different strengths and limitations, it can be difficult for users to navigate the wealth and complexity of information. Furthermore, available climate projection information can be inaccessible and inappropriate for use in specific decision-making contexts, due to a variety of reasons including a mismatch between the spatial resolution of data and that needed for applications, difficult-to-use data formats, and limited articulations of uncertainty.

26 Appendix 4: Abstracts

Here we present activities to overcome some of these challenges for the South Asia region in the CARISSA (Climate Analysis for Risk Information and Services in South Asia) project, under the FDCO funded ARRCC (Asia Regional Resilience to a Changing Climate) programme. CARISSA aims to improve the uptake and use of future climate projections in South Asia, focusing on four focal countries: Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Nepal and Pakistan. Through collaboration with partner organisations in South Asia, including the International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD), work is ongoing to build capacity of scientists and users of climate projections, enhance regional collaboration, and co-develop sector- and hazard-specific information for use in climate change adaptation policy and planning. We will present some initial outputs from the main project activities, including development of a “distillation” approach for multi-model and multi-method climate projections, new regional sea level projections, and findings from workshops with producers and users of climate information across sectors (e.g. water and hydropower sectors). We also invite suggestions on next steps for the project and discussion on how CARISSA can better align with other initiatives in South Asia and elsewhere to improve the uptake and use of future climate projections.

Rapid expert elicitations of future regional climate change for climate services Sam Grainger, Maynooth University, Ireland

Climate change knowledge can inform regional and local adaptation decisions. For many parts of the world, estimates of future regional climate, particularly precipitation, are deeply uncertain deriving from models that poorly represent present-day conditions. Traditional methods for assessing projection uncertainty tend to focus exclusively on quantifiable dimensions despite recognition that not all uncertainties can be quantified.

To address these shortcomings, we use rapid expert elicitation to assess knowledge quality in relation to future climatic change in the lower Yangtze region, China. We compare CMIP5 model outputs with expert judgements of uncertainty sources and future changes in temperature and precipitation for the 2040s and 2080s. Elicited judgements on uncertainty sources aligned with established categories from scientific assessments: natural (or internal) variability of the atmosphere, model performance and future external forcing (e.g. greenhouse gas in the atmosphere). However, we elicited a diversity of judgements in regard to source contributions. Expert estimates of future change were consistent with an increase in mean annual temperature, although estimates of mean annual precipitation changes varied substantially; some expecting an increase with relatively narrow uncertainty ranges (a 3-8% increase by 2080s) while others indicated there is a possibility of both positive and negative future change with very wide uncertainty ranges (-70-70% change by 2080s).

Our findings indicate that some experts are considering additional uncertainties that would not usually be represented in regional assessments. As a proof-of-concept, this work demonstrates that rapid expert elicitation can deliver regional climate knowledge for regional climate services.

Strengthening Regional approaches to Hydromet and Climate Services in South Asia LS Rathore

South Asia is highly vulnerable to weather-induced natural disasters and many of extreme weather events such as cyclones and floods. The social and economic costs of such hazards have been staggering. The performance of the region’s key economic sectors such as agriculture, aviation, water, urban infrastructure, hydropower, and tourism depends heavily upon weather information-based services. However, users and communities have limited access to information products tailored to these sectors. Therefore, investments in disaster early warning systems can be critical in saving lives and assets and

27 Appendix 4: Abstracts

strengthening the resilience of vulnerable communities. Furthermore, natural disasters being transboundary in nature, efforts to strengthen disaster early warning systems and weather services require national level modernization efforts as well as can greatly bring about economies of scale with a regional collaborative approach. Hydromet services make critical contributions in managing risk in weather-dependent economic sectors, helping drought affected farmers, mitigating impact on urban and critical infrastructure, underpinning productivity of energy, transport and water sector investments among others while lifting the game up in disaster preparedness and early warning. Climate science is changing rapidly, and institutions and capacities need to transform to different level; the subject area is technically challenging and is oft- ignored till crises occur. Regional collaboration has the potential to reduce costs and improve forecasting capabilities – each country does not have to replicate the modernization process. Regional and global forecasting tools and public-private partnerships can contribute to addressing gaps. The Bank has already significant portfolio of investments related to hydromet and climate services, hydrological services and flood risk management in Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Nepal, Pakistan and Sri Lanka, and is supporting the South Asia Hydromet Forum, a regional initiative to support peer to peer learning, training, knowledge exchanges, and regional dialogue. This presentation will include: • An overview of the Bank’s support to this agenda in SAR • Highlights of selected activities such as the Bangladesh weather and climate services, Afghanistan Drought early warning; • An update on the South Asia Hydromet Forum (second event November 2019); and • An outline of the potential and opportunities for strengthened regional engagement

Climate Services in the Asian Pacific: Emerging Trends and Future Challenges Chiaping Cheng, Central Weather Bureau Taiwan

In light of the intensifying extreme weather and climate conditions worldwide, the need for developing climate services is rapidly becoming important for sustaining the quality of life. Timely and coordinated development in climate services for the Asian Pacific region is crucial. The Central Weather Bureau (CWB) of Taiwan organized the first Asia Pacific Climate Service Workshop (APCSW), held in Taipei on 28-29 October 2019. The goal of APCSW is to enhance regional cooperation of climate service operations and to foster interchange of climate service experiences. Participants include more than 20 speakers from 9 countries in the Asia Pacific region, who work for national meteorological services, government agencies, private sectors and academia, along with 100+ local participants to discuss the current trends and future challenges of climate services.

Keynote speakers of APCSW outlined several elements for future climate services: (1) communication in preparing stakeholders for cultivating and utilizing climate services; (2) steering of policies to improve collaborative partnerships among different agencies; (3) strengthening of information sharing and co- development. Speakers also emphasized the role of scientific research in differentiating weather and climate processes and impacts. In the face of global warming, speakers called for innovation, systematic approaches for data and product quality, as well as education and communication strategies to further the development of climate services. Many interesting cases and inspiring experiences regarding weather/climate products and assessment were discussed. Moreover, the importance of how to accumulate climate service-related research, knowledge, and innovations was addressed.

Based upon the experiences of climate services development in various countries, risk reduction and management are paramount given that different weather and climate phenomena in different time and location impact different sectors, hence requiring tailored solutions. The development of adaptation

28 Appendix 4: Abstracts

measure takes a multi-governmental and cross-institutional efforts through sectoral partnerships. International collaboration with data, information, knowledge and the implementation of international protocols will speed up these partnerships. The prospect of climate services in creating economic opportunities and enhancing economic values should be highlighted. In addition to building capacity of science and research, the speakers concluded that leadership, communications, and core values are key factors that will set the foundation of future climate services.

29 Appendix 4: Abstracts

Building Resilience: Institutional Support for Climate Services Lorena Pasquini, Chanthingla Horam Lola Kotova, Catherine Vaughan Ahmadul Hassan

Session Lead: Cathy Vaughan, IRI/Columbia University

What role do climate change risk perceptions have for the development of climate services for adaptation? An analysis from the East Africa region Lorena Pasquini, University of Cape Town

The inherent vulnerability to climate change of the African continent has attracted a sense of urgency to supply climate services that can more effectively assist in addressing the impacts of climate change. Climate services involve the production, communication, engagement with, and use of climate knowledge and information for climate-related decision-making. Often, these climate services are developed with only a superficial understanding of the target audience, and little in particular is known regarding the nuances of the African decision-making context, inhibiting the effectiveness of climate services in supporting efforts to adapt to climate change. One approach to deepening contextual knowledge to inform the development of improved climate services is through an understanding of climate change risk perceptions, because risk perceptions have been shown to be strong drivers of pro- environmental behaviour (such as using climate services for climate-related action).

Drawing upon more than 600 survey responses and 36 semi-structured interviews, this paper presents findings regarding the major determinants of climate change risk perceptions amongst climate policy decision influencers in east Africa. The paper presents an analysis of the relationship between risk perception determinants and concern about, and action on, climate change. These interconnections are then used to illustrate how climate change risk perceptions can be used as a basis for informing climate services, whether it be through appropriate mechanisms for collaborative engagements, timelines of relevance, content and format of climate information products and services and/or suitable communication and dissemination mechanisms. Through a better understanding of climate change risk perceptions, there is scope to design climate services that more readily fit the specific decision contexts of the African continent.

A review on the structure and functions of various local-level institutions: A link to enhance climate services and action plans on climate change adaptation in North-East India Chanthingla Horam, Indian Institute of Bombay, India

The North-East Indian states are largely made up of natural resource dependent indigenous communities that live in close knit with its environment. The socio-cultural and ecological entities are intertwined where the relationship goes beyond proprietorship but that of ownership. Climate variability and climate change impacts have exacerbated the plight of these already vulnerable

30 Appendix 4: Abstracts communities. It is very crucial that people have an access to robust climate services for adapting to climate change impacts effectively and also enhancing the adaptive capacity of the community. In most of the indigenous societies, local institutions of different forms are the apex body for decision-making regarding allocation and management of natural resources. They are self-governing body and the communities are accountable to these institutions in most governance processes. They also are the repository of traditional ecological knowledge which is still relevant in the context of modern climate science. Moreover, informal institutions and civil organisations such as the youth and women representatives, religious entities, student groups etc. play a huge role in keeping the social fabric intact with its bio-cultural component. They act as a medium of transferring knowledge and dissemination of information. These institutions could provide possible pathways through which climate services could be based at the local level and local context. It also serves as an entry point that makes the services more deliverable. The paper has attempted to identify and review the existing literature on the structure and functions of such local-level institutions across North-East India.

The Cimateurope Festivals: Climate information at your service Lola Kotova, Climate Climate Service Center Germany (GERICS), Helmholtz-Zentrum Geesthacht Germany

The Climateurope project is managing a framework to coordinate, integrate and support European research and innovation activities in the fields of Earth-System Modelling and Climate Services. The project is described in detail at www.climateurope.eu. Within the project there is a range of communication and dissemination activities designed to welcome and involve climate science communities, funding bodies, climate service providers and users. In this way, climate information is transformed via open and intensive dialogue between these different actors, in contrast to traditional communication through purely scientific conferences and workshops. Climateurope is hosting three Festivals between 2017 and 2020, inspired by the motto “Climate information at your service”. The first two Festivals took place in Valencia, Spain in 2017 and in Belgrade, Serbia in 2018. The program themes for these events were chosen based on the most urgent climate issues relevant to the selected regions of Spain and the Republic of Serbia. A number of formats, from traditional impulse talks to innovative interactive sessions, provoked discussion on the advantages and challenges that climate services face gave the opportunity to share experiences and knowledge on how climate services are already being successfully provided. To assist in making the European landscape of climate services less fragmented, speed networking was organized to facilitate co-operation between different European research projects and initiatives. The Festivals also gave opportunities to carry on the discussions online. The third Festival of Climateurope will take place in Riga, Latvia on June,16 to June,18 2020. In this presentation we will discuss our experiences in organizing the Festivals and share the lessons learned. Acknowledgement: this work is supported by the Climateurope project funded by the European Commission under the Horizon 2020 framework program (grant 689029).

Governance of and through climate services: A framework analysis of Uruguay’s National Agricultural Information System Catherine Vaughan, International Research Institute for Climate & Society, Columbia University, United States

Climate services involve the production, translation, transfer and use of climate information for decision making. While interest in climate services has grown, research on the governance structures that support them remains scant, spread throughout disparate case studies and without a coherent framework to organize existing knowledge or guide future work. This paper addresses this gap by developing a framework, grounded in the project governance literature, to explicate several goals and

31 Appendix 4: Abstracts components of climate service governance; it applies this framework to the analysis of Uruguay's National Agricultural Information System (SNIA), a national-level agricultural climate service. The analysis is used to (1) define the key goals and components of climate service governance; and (2) develop recommendations for how climate services governance can be improved, both in the Uruguayan context and more broadly. The analysis is consistent with the notion that the climate service community is more advanced with respect to the governance of climate services, and rather less advanced with respect to governance through climate services. Assessing governance arrangements that support climate service is an important and promising area for future research.

Anticipating Disasters: Lessons on the Use of Impact-based Forecasting in the Humanitarians Sector Ahmadul Hassan, Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre

The past decade has seen a remarkable change towards anticipatory humanitarian action. It is widely accepted that acting before a disaster to protect people, must be embedded in the humanitarian system and governmental disaster risk management. This transformation towards acting early based on a forecast, has been achieved by a growing network of actors at policy, scientific and practical level that are creating an environment for anticipatory humanitarian action to flourish.

Moving to a new era of forecasting that not only focus on the hazard, but that integrates other indicators such as exposure and vulnerability, is an imperative to be able to manage effectively the current and future challenges that Climate Change and other risk drivers are imposing in society. A radical change is expected in the next few years, for this, the impact-based forecasting (IBF) approach could offer a new set of products and services that can provide concrete information about when and where disaster impacts are expected if certain forecast information is produced.

Globally the Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre is supporting the implementation of Forecast- based-Financing (FbF) in more than 20 countries. In Asia, it is supporting the Red Cross Red Crescent and its partners to design Forecast-based Financing systems in Bangladesh, Mongolia, Philippines, Nepal, Indonesia and Vietnam and currently feasibility studies have been conducted in Myanmar. The most advanced experiences have been in Bangladesh for floods and cyclones, in Mongolia for dzud, and more recently in Nepal for floods.

32 Appendix 4: Abstracts

State of Knowledge: Building Capacity for Climate Services Jessica Stacey Ashley Curtis Filipe Lucio Anshul Agrawal Mandira Shrestha

Session Leads: Ashley Curtis, IRI / Columbia University and Mandira Shrestha, ICIMOD

Training Video on Seasonal Forecasting and its Applications Jessica Stacey, Met Office, United Kingdom

We have developed a series of general training videos on seasonal forecasting as part of the FDCO- funded WISER and SCIPSA (ARRCC) programmes. The videos provide an accessible source of information with introductory explanations of key topics, including what a seasonal forecast is, how they are generated, understanding terciles, forecast skill, the Regional Climate Outlook Forum process and case studies of their application. Explanations of these concepts are clear and comprehensive, delving into technical detail where necessary, and hopefully understandable to an array of seasonal forecast users, from farmers to meteorologists. Through showcasing the video to the international climate service community, we aim to enhance uptake and improve understanding of seasonal forecast information by users around the world.

The Bangladesh Academy for Climate Services – A new model for capacity building Ashley Curtis, IRI, Columbia University, United States

Scaling up climate services requires improved understanding of climate risks, climate impacts in specific sectors and climate-resilient strategies, as well as better coordination of generation, translation, communication and use of climate services. National Academies for Climate Services provide a successful capacity building model for addressing common challenges, such as duplication of efforts between donor-funded projects, and insufficient coordination and sustainability of efforts after the project ends. Under Adapting Agriculture to Climate Today, for Tomorrow (ACToday), the first Columbia World Project, the national academies model is now taking shape with partners in each ACToday country to train a new generation of experts who understand the value of climate services and can use them effectively across sectors to manage climate risks and opportunities in the coming decades.

The Bangladesh Academy for Climate Services (BACS) was co-founded in 2018 by the International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI) at Columbia University, the International Center for Climate Change and Development (ICCCAD) at the Independent University, Bangladesh (IUB), the Bangladesh Meteorological Department (BMD), and the International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT). BACS is the first of its kind in Bangladesh, and goes beyond the disconnected, ad hoc, one-off workshop-based format typical of project-based activities by prioritizing holistic, high quality, and sustainable capacity building to achieve climate service goals. BACS has three functions: first, convening stakeholders for trans-sectoral dialogues identifying existing challenges and opportunities; second, professional development trainings for students and early-to mid- level professionals to help

33 Appendix 4: Abstracts address identified needs; third, creating graduate level curricula to train a new generation of climate and sector experts. The BACS model enables successful identification of the full spectrum of needs and building capacity strategically across the four pillars of climate services and relevant sectors, development of curriculum using the best available science and practice, and institutionalizing capacity building with ‘legacy partners’ beyond the lifetime of the project.

GFCS Closing the Capacity Gap for Climate Services Filipe Lucio, WMO, Switzerland

The GFCS aims to close the capacity gap to ensure high-quality information in early warning systems and enhanced uptake of the best available science in decision making. The GFCS Implementation Plan outlines the following capacity development areas: governance, management, human resources development, education and training, leadership, partnership creation, science communication, service delivery, resource mobilization and infrastructure. Key to the development of effective climate services is the implementation of WMO competency framework for the provision of climate services that ensures standardization of service quality and delivery. This session will outline the WMO competency framework and provide examples of how the GFCS is engaging WMO Members (NMHS) and development partners for enhance capacity and improved development, resilience and adaptation outcomes.

Integrating Climate Information into Decision Processes for Regional Climate Resilience: A Case study from Bihar, India Anshul Agarwal, RIMES, Thailand

Climate-related disasters such as droughts and floods, high incidences of pests and diseases, increased demand for water on one hand and the need to increase agricultural production on the other, necessitate the effective utilization of available weather and climate information. National Meteorological agencies such as India Meteorological Department (IMD) generate weather and climate forecasts and various forms of sector-specific forecasts such as agro-meteorological information for a wide range of potential users regularly. Many international research institutes such as the International Research Institute on Climate and Society (IRI) also support the national agencies to produces state of the art forecasts. The users of these forecasts include irrigation agencies, disaster and management agencies, local government units, farmers, agricultural planners, hydrologists, health practitioner’s researchers etc. The big challenge, however, is to develop a mechanism that will effectively communicate the information in a language that could be easily understood at different levels to obtain the maximum benefits from the information they receive. International Research and Applications Project (IRAP) is a collaborative project involving IRI at Columbia University, USA, University of Arizona, USA, India Meteorological Department (IMD), Regional Integrated Multi-Hazard Early Warning System for Africa and Asia (RIMES), Thailand and Govt. of Bihar, funded by National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), USA. IRAP conducted a research experiment aimed at improving the livelihoods of rural farmers in Bihar, India, by producing and providing them with tailored weather and climate information. Also, IRAP, in collaboration with IMD, RIMES and other state-based organizations, conducted training schools on Forecast Application for Risk Management in Agriculture (FARM) to improve the awareness of farmers about the need of climate information and climate adaptation interventions which was applied for Kharif crops in summer monsoon 2018. The intervention helped trained farmers to adjust their crop calendar to: o maximize the advantage of potential favorable climate during the season o manage potential risks o validate forecasts, for aiding their understanding of probabilistic forecasts and further strengthening application of climate information o better understand variability in weather and the uncertainty in forecasts

34 Appendix 4: Abstracts

Capacity building approaches for an end to end Climate Services for Disaster Risk Reduction in the Hindu Kush Himalayas Mandira Shrestha, ICIMOD

Rapid advancement in communication technology is making access to information faster, more reliable and cheaper. At the same time, hydrological and meteorological monitoring technologies continue to improve significantly. The project “Establishment of a regional flood information system in the Hindu Kush Himalayan region (HKH-HYCOS) introduced these emerging technologies and provided an end-to- end flood information system that functions as a decision support tool for decision makers to alert vulnerable communities in a timely manner. ICIMOD, in its capacity as a regional knowledge hub, in collaboration with the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and the national partners implemented the project to transfer the capacity, technology and know-how on operationalising such a system for improved climate services in the region. The project strengthened the capacity of national hydrometeorological services (NHMS) and increased the technical absorption capacity of the countries resulting in implementation of large donor funded projects in strengthening the hydromet services in Nepal, Bhutan, Bangladesh and Pakistan for disaster risk reduction.

ICIMOD has also launched the Regional Drought Monitoring and Outlook System at 5 km spatial resolution in SAARC member countries. Five drought indices soil moisture, evapotranspiration standardised precipitation index, temperature and NDVI are monitored. This system incorporates in-situ observation and geospatial information which has been designed and developed based on the needs assessment and consultation with the stakeholders. Series of trainings and user engagement workshops have been held with national interfaces developed in Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Nepal and Pakistan for enhancing the capacity of agromet professionals. A comprehensive agromet advisory services are being designed in consultation with regional member countries for climate resilient agriculture practices and production. A forest fire identification system supported by geospatial information technology system has been recently developed and put into test operation in Nepal. It has a great potential of upscaling, outscaling and sharing throughout the region.

35 Appendix 4: Abstracts

State of Knowledge: Climate Projections for Improved Decisions Md Saquib Saharwardi PV Kiran Lola Kotova Harilaos Loukos Santosh Nepal Joe Daron Shiromani Jayawardena

Session Lead: Joe Daron, UK Met Office

Assessing the performance of high-resolution regional earth system model for monitoring the drought dynamics over India Md Saquib Saharwardi, IISER Bhopal, India

Drought is a persistent climate extreme that propagates to soil moisture affecting plant and agriculture growths, leading to an adverse impact on regional water resources and ecosystem. Therefore it is interesting to understand the different physical process involved in controlling it by current modelling techniques for sustainable management. In the present study, a comparative analysis of a global climate model (GCM) and dynamically downscaled Regional climate model (RCM) along with high-resolution regional earth system model (RESM) are done to assess their ability to capture drought variability over India. The calculation of drought statistics carried out using the precipitation and temperature data developed as SPI and SPEI indices respectively. The results capture the effect of regional parameterization and the effects of considering other earth system components to understand the drought variability and its drivers. Results of RESM improved the representation of present climate followed by RCM and least by GCM. The increased dryness observed across the country under the projected climate with regional variation under the high emission scenario which may adversely alter the agriculture productivity and regional water resources. However, uncertainties remain a challenge due to variation in indices selection, model formulation including regional dynamics. This highly validated RESM may also provide better inputs for the regional crop, hydrological as well as ecological modelling for effective and improved climate services.

Application of pseudo-global warming dynamic downscaling method to study the effects of climate change on rainfall events in Kerala Kiran PV, Indian Institute of Technology Madras, India

In the last few years, heavy rainfall events and related floods on the west coast of India have increased. Out of the last five southwestern monsoons, four of them caused massive flooding and unimaginable damages in different parts of the country. Kerala, the southwestern state of the country, is one of the most affected states. The state experienced heavy precipitation in two consecutive years 2018 and 2019, that lead to the death of more than 500 people and destruction of properties. Global warming is believed to be the cause of these changes in precipitation intensity. According to studies, each degree of increase in surface temperature leads to an increase of 7% in the amount of precipitation. Therefore, it is important to study the effect of climate change on the southwest monsoon, which helps the

36 Appendix 4: Abstracts policymakers to plan accordingly to reduce the damage caused by such events. In this work, heavy rainfall event that occurred in Kerala during August 2018 is projected to far-future i.e. 2075 climatic conditions using Pseudo Global Warming(PGW) approach with RCP6.0 and 8.5. Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model is used for the dynamic downscaling for both current and future scenarios. The results obtained for the future scenario are compared with the current scenario.

CORDEX CORE: A new ensemble of high resolution regional climate change simulations enabling climate services worldwide Lola Kotova, Climate Service Center Germany, Helmholtz Zentrum Geesthacht, Germany

The Coordinated Output for Regional Evaluations (CORE) simulation ensemble is an effort of the WCRP CORDEX community to provide high resolution regional climate change information for the major inhabited areas of the world and thus to generate the solid scientific basis for further research related to vulnerability, impact, adaptation and climate services. This is especially important for those regions for which only few (if any) climate information at high resolution were available until now. The global climate model simulations, which are selected for downscaling in the frame of CORDEX CORE cover the spread of high, medium and low climate sensitivity at a global scale. Initially, the two regional climate models REMO and RegCM4 are used to downscale these global climate model outputs to a resolution of 0.22° (25 km).

The aim of this study is to investigate and document the climate change information provided by the current CORDEX CORE ensemble with respect to mean climate change in different regions and in comparison to previously existing global and regional climate information. The focus lies on those global climate simulations used as boundary forcing for CORDEX CORE and to other existing CORDEX simulations. The analysis focuses on changes in temperature and precipitation mean values for the IPCC SREX regions. In this regard, regional differences in the projected climate change signals at different resolution are presented for selected SREX regions.

Bias patterns of 6 daily land surface variables in CMIP5 models and consequences of bias adjustment in terms of changes and associated uncertainty at the end of the century under RCP 8.5 Harilaos Loukos, The Climate Data Factory, France

We have conducted an analysis of biases of CMIP5 models projections under emission scenarios RCP8.5 and RCP 4.5 for 6 surface variables (surface minimum, maximum and mean temperature, precipitation, surface wind and solar radiation) after bias adjustment. To our knowledge, this is the first bias adjustment exercise covering so many variables at daily scale for the CMIP5 RCP 8.5 projections.

To produce the bias corrected CMIP5 data set we used the Cumulative Distribution Function transform (CDF-t) method (Michelangeli et al., 2009, Vrac et al., 2016, Famien et al., 2017). As observation-based reference dataset we used the WATCH-Forcing-Data-ERA-Interim data set (WFDEI; Weedon et al., 2014). It includes eight meteorological variables. We used daily averages from 1979 to 2012, for the global land surface at 0.5◦ x 0.5◦ resolution.

Bias adjustment improves comparison with reanalysis over the historical period with differences by model and variable both at the global and regional scales. We also evaluated how the climatological changes at the end of the century (difference between the 30-year averages of 2071-2100 compared to 1971-2000) and the ensemble uncertainty are affected in both data sets.

37 Appendix 4: Abstracts

In this presentation we focus on surface temperature and precipitation that are the most commonly used surface variables by adaptation practitioners. We show that the changes and associated uncertainty in surface temperature can be considered as identical between the raw and bias-adjusted data sets, thus illustrating the ability of the method in conserving trends and intensities. However, changes in precipitation and uncertainties in precipitation show significant regional modifications that can have important consequences in terms of impact.

Future Climatic Extremes in Nepal Santosh Nepal, ICIMOD

The changes in future temperature and precipitation is a great concern for different sectors in Nepal. Government of Nepal has identified nine different sectors for which the climate change can have adverse impacts. The sectors are: Agriculture, Disaster, Forest and biodiversity, Gender, Livelihood and governance, Health, Tourism, Urbanization and Water and energy. Not only the changes in temperature and precipitation matter, but the changes in climatic extremes could also be of serious concern.

In this study, 11 different climatic extreme indices were analyzed for mid-century (2036-2065) and the end of the century (2071-2100). Both the average annual mean temperature and precipitation will continue to climb until the end of the century. The precipitation might increase by 11-23% and the temperature might increase by 1.72-3.58 oC for Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5. The intense precipitation events (P95 and P99) are likely to increase with extremely wet days (P99) expected to increase at a higher rate than very wet days (P95). The consecutive dry days (CDD) may increase in the future under RCP4.5 scenarios but may decrease in RCP8.5. The consecutive wet days (CWD) may decrease in the future under RCP4.5 scenarios but may increase in RCP8.5. Both warm days and warm nights are likely to increase in the future whereas the cold days and cold nights are likely to decrease in the future. Warm Spells are likely to increase in the future as indicated by warm spell duration index under both RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 which is in conjunction with increasing temperature trends and increasing warm days of the future periods.

The study suggests that in general, all Nepal climate will be warmer and wetter in the future periods, however, the precipitation for the pre-monsoon season might decrease in the future. Extreme Indices related to temperature and precipitation suggest that more extreme events are likely in the future. This is expected to affect different development sectors, such as water, energy, biodiversity, agriculture, and livelihoods. A better understanding of these changes will help to design better adaptive options and implement in a more sustainable way.

Importance of integration of sub seasonal-to seasonal predictions to improve climate services in Sri Lanka : Case Study Southwest Monsoon 2019 I.M. Shiromani Priyanthika Jayawardena, Department of Meteorology, Sri Lanka

The climate outlook for the 2019 southwest monsoon (SWM) season was prepared through an expert assessment of the prevailing global climate conditions and forecasts from different climate models from around the world during the fourteenth session of the South Asian Climate Outlook Forum (SASCOF14), held at Kathmandu, Nepal from 22-23 April 2019. It was predicted that above normal rainfall was likely over Sri Lanka for SWM 2019 and information was shared at the monsoon forum. Monsoon forum, the national climate forum, convened by the Department of Meteorology (DOM), with support from the Regional Integrated Multi-Hazard Early Warning System (RIMES) has been a dynamic seasonal platform for informed planning and decision-making by various key economic and climate sensitive sectors in Sri Lanka, utilizing information of different timescales (10 days, monthly and seasonal information), for

38 Appendix 4: Abstracts both resources and risks management. Even though climatological onset date of SWM is around 25th of May, monthly rainfall of May including pre-monsoon rainfall is vital of all over the country as May rainfall contributes about 30% to 50% of the total SWM rainfall in Sri Lanka. Unusual dry conditioned prevailed during the month of May 2019, led to delay the onset of SWM by 2 weeks.

The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is the dominant mode of large-scale sub-seasonal tropospheric variability over the tropical Indian and Pacific Oceans. suppressed phase of MJO (phase 6 to 8) with anomalous easterly winds over Sri Lanka was evident from 04th May to 25th May. Convectively active MJO (phase 2 to 3) during the first two weeks of June, established the onset of SWM on 08th June and brought more than 50% to 100% of rainfall received during June 2019. The 2019 Southwest Monsoon season was marked by highly uneven rainfall distribution with deficit of rainfall at the beginning and surplus of rainfall during the latter part of the season. Due to delay of onset and rainfall deficit during early part of 2019 SWM, late cultivation of paddy was observed. Yield losses were reported due to higher rainy events occurred during the harvesting season at latter part of SWM in the wet zone. Hydro- catchment areas recorded large shortfalls in early part Southwest Monsoon rainfall. Rainfall during the Southwest Monsoon is significant for Ceylon Electricity Board (CEB) as some of its key hydro- catchment areas are dependent on the Southwest Monsoon, for power generation. Significant shortfall, hence, in the Southwest Monsoon (and other rainfall seasons) is likely to impact on power generation (and/or costs for power generation) in Sri Lanka. 2019 was marked with below normal rainfall conditions in hydro-catchment areas. Hydropower generation, in 2019 SW Monsoon Season, was only 13-15%, spiking dependency on thermal power to about 85% from May to July. Increase in rainfall in hydro- catchment areas in August and September led to hydropower production increase (25-30% of national production). As MJO being a major predictive source in sub seasonal to seasonal (S2S) timescale and Sri Lanka being a country located in the heart of MJO envelop, integration of S2S information in to seasonal outlook provide much greater value to decision-makers in Agriculture and Energy sector.

39 Appendix 4: Abstracts

State of Practice: Business Models for Climate Services Ousmane Ndiaye Kisa Mfalila Filipe Lucio Jillian Schacher

Session Lead: Filipe Lucio, World Meteorological Organization

What business models for sustainable upscaling of weather and climate information services delivery in Senegal? Ousmane Ndiaye, ANACIM, Senegal

Senegal is a country where more than two-thirds of the population relies on agriculture for their livelihoods and nearly half of the population lives in poverty. The country is highly vulnerable due to a diverse and complex range of climate change risks that are expected to increase in the coming decades. The country has benefited from several climate-risk reduction initiatives aimed at increasing the resilience of stakeholders to climate variability and change. The most prominent one is the widespread provision and use of salient weather and climate information services (WCIS), which, since 2016 have guiding farmers’ decision-making during the growing seasons. WCIS has become an important agricultural input in the country. However, the costs of the WCIS production and dissemination, the cost of the capacity building of the WCIS users to understand and effectively use WCIS, have always been beared by development projects. In order to identify promising strategies to sustain the delivery chain of WCIS in Senegal, consultations among various stakeholders were organized through lessons learnt and experience sharing workshops with WCIS users and next-users, relevant public and private institutions. From these consultations, it was suggested that bundling WCIS with weather-based index agricultural insurance and with crop inputs provision such as fertilizers and improved crop seeds are paramount for generating resources to sustain WCIS delivery system. In addition, enticing individual farmers to subscribe to get access to site-specific WCIS through innovative platforms with attractive pricing could be an interesting option. Part of the revenue generated through these initiatives are shared among involved private and public enterprises for WCIS production (met service) and dissemination (communication companies) and for training farmers (public and private institutions). These business models are under implementation in Senegal with high promising outcomes.

Climate services to build smallholder farmers’ resilience Kisa Mfalila, IFAD, India

The proposed submission takes stock of selected IFAD projects supporting countries to develop climate services enabling farmers to make informed decisions, better manage risk, take advantage of favourable climate conditions, and adapt to change. The submission reviews project reports and analytical papers from the Adaptation for Smallholder Agriculture Program (ASAP) and will engage country teams to review i) approaches used and their impact on adoption of climate smart practices and food security; ii) business models used, their inclusiveness and scalability. Most projects associate investment in climate service models, infrastructure, capacity development and bottom up extension process integrating such

40 Appendix 4: Abstracts

information. Different business models are followed and require inclusive public-private partnerships. For instance, in Bangladesh, the Haor Infrastructure and Livelihood Improvement Project - Climate Adaptation and Livelihood Protection (HILIP-CALIP) developed a flash flood early warning model, which include also training to farmers to interpret messages and adapt practices. In Vietnam, the Adaptation in the Mekong Delta (AMD) project established an Automated Salinity and Water Quality Monitoring System. Real-time and forecast data on water quality and salinity is available through a hotspot. In Lesotho, the Wool and Mohair Promotion Project (WAMPP) project implements Participatory Integrated Climate Services for Agriculture (PICSA) in partnership with the University of Reading and CCAFS. The approach involves agriculture extension staff working with groups of farmers ahead of the agricultural season to firstly analyse historical climate information and use participatory tools to develop and choose crop, livestock and livelihood options best suited to individual farmers’ circumstances. Before and during the season, extension staff and farmers review plans against actual seasonal and short-term forecasts. Similarly, In India, the Andhra Pradesh Drought Mitigation Project (APDMP) supports innovative ICT solutions and climate information centres which are owned and managed by farmers organizations and draw partnership with ministry of agriculture and regional university. Long term and local climatic data was reviewed and help provide tailored climatic trends in very small regions. In addition, models and other technical collaborations help translate such data into adapted crop and pest advisory services. Extension programs develop capacities of farmers to use such data to adapt their practices.

Public Private Engagement Filipe Lucio, WMO, Switzerland

The World Economic Forum Global Risk Landscape identifies extreme weather events, failure of climate- change mitigation and adaptation, natural disasters and the water crises as top societal risks both in terms of impacts and likelihood. Three major reports from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change – on land, the oceans and cryosphere, and on the 1.5°C climate goal -- all confirm that the impacts of climate change are already being felt by vulnerable members of society and entire ecosystems.

The weight of responsibility is on the global meteorological, climatological and hydrological communities; a rapid advancement of science and service capabilities is critical, as a response to the global challenges. To this end, stakeholders from the public, private and academic sectors need to build a strong accord to address cross-sector issues and obstacles to the realization of the full potential of the weather enterprise.

Through the session, participants will be informed of the latest development for the public-private- academic engagement aimed at identifying effective and efficient mechanisms for knowledge-sharing and building trust among stakeholders. The session will then outline examples of cooperation between India’s Meteorological Department (IMD), India’s private and academic communities and other examples of public private engagement in the Asia and Pacific region.

Participants will also review the outcomes of the Eighteenth World Meteorological Congress (June 2019) adoption of Resolution 80 of Geneva Declaration 2019: "Building Community for Weather, Climate and Water Actions", outlining a clear policy direction for inclusive partnership, and take part in the discussion on innovative ways to engage stakeholders in the whole value chain of weather, climate and water areas, under the WMO- leading umbrella of the Open Consultative Platform (OCP).

41 Appendix 4: Abstracts

Should climate services professionalize? A critical look at commercialization without regulation Jillian Schacher, University of Leeds, United Kingdom

Climate services exist in a market with few field-wide standards or regulations for product quality or ethical provision, and no common method of climate service evaluation or assessment. Simultaneously, the field has been expanding into the private sector, with climate services increasingly offered for cost by private climate service providers and consultancies. Further commercialization without regulation poses substantial risks to the future of both climate service provision and global adaptation; already, studies have shown that commercializing climate services leads to a decrease in transparency and accessibility, a focus on competition over collaboration, and a shift in provider incentives away from the public good and towards the ongoing pursuit of profit (Webber and Donner, 2017; Keele, 2019). This paper explores the current ethical, regulatory, and evaluative frameworks used by climate services in the UK, and investigates the feasibility of developing standardized regulation through professionalization. A professional climate services body (complete with institutional leadership, legally protected title, accreditation and specialization, field-wide standards, code of ethics, and group identity) would strengthen the field’s legitimacy and uptake; would serve to protect providers from disputes about uncertainty in climate projections; would offer guidance to new providers; would shield providers from changing political priorities, unethical pressures, or competition from cheaper, substandard climate services; and would have the capacity to develop and enforce fair regulations and an ethical framework that would be balanced across the complex public and private provider landscape. This paper problematizes climate services’ commercialization without regulation, and offers a potential solution in professionalization.

42 Appendix 4: Abstracts

State of Practice: Understanding Users’ Needs Ravi Shankar Kuntamukkala Fatemeh Khosravi Diana Giraldo Geethalakshmi Vellingiri Yacine Fall Julio Araujo

Session Lead: Julio Araujo, SouthSouthNorth

Strategy for Integrating Farmers' Indigenous and Scientific Knowledge for Climate Smart Adaptation and Food Security in India Ravi Shankar Kuntamukkala, Central Research Institute for Dryland Agriculture, India

The certainty of increased need for food to feed a burgeoning global population and the uncertainty of the short and long-term impacts of climate change on agriculture combines to make efforts to enhance the adaptive resilience of agricultural systems a top societal priority. Farmers’ use indigenous/local knowledge to predict weather based on their observation of phenomena such as formation of halo around the moon, wind and cloud movement, lightning, animal behavior, bird movement etc. in studies carried out by first author. Farmers' adapt to climate change by changing planting dates and diversifying crops. Beyond their potential to detect physical and biological changes, insights from local knowledge can improve our understanding of how climate change impacts local socioeconomic systems, as they provide valuable information on how local livelihoods are affected by these impacts. On the other hand, scientific knowledge is given in probabilities, with less location specificity and relevance to farmers'. Therefore, integration of scientific knowledge with indigenous methods followed by farmers in a participatory mode will help in improving the utility of knowledge for adaptation to climate change. Trainings need to be given at district agricultural office to farmers’ possessing indigenous knowledge about the application of scientific knowledge in the field. This will be followed by Participatory Action Research (PAR) in the farmers’ fields. The criterion would be the increase in yield of test crop for the farmers’ who attended the training over those who did not. Further, these will serve as demonstration plots to motivate other fellow farmers’ to follow up. Partnerships and convergence among relevant institutions, non-governmental organizations, and local communities in a village situation can strengthen capacity and increase the integrated use of indigenous and scientific knowledge on climate change for improving agricultural production and food security.

Desire and Appetite for long term climate information in China’s water sector Fatemeh Khosravi, The University of Leeds, United Kingdom

This paper reviews the use of longer term climate information in water resource management in China to deal with the consequence of climate change in the Yellow River Basin, the Yangtze River Basin and the South-North Water Transfer Project. The paper identified the fundamental gaps and weaknesses that fail to produce the desired synergies between climate change projection information and water resource management. Findings include a prevalent practice that water resource managers in China predominantly use historical climate information for future prediction rather than climate change

43 Appendix 4: Abstracts projection information, and low appetite for using longer term climate information (e.g. more than 12 months) due to limited policy incentives. Recommendations are made include enhancing communication between climate scientists and water managers to understand how climate change affects water resources and how long-term climate change information may be integrated with water resource decision making.

Climate Services: Stakeholders Needs in the Agricultural Sector Geethalakshmi Vellingiri, Tamil Nadu Agricultural University, India

Agriculture sector involves many stakeholders who require climate services at different level. A survey was conducted to understand the need of various stakeholder with respect to climate information requirement and synthesis of the information collected are presented in this paper.

Last mile stakeholders in agriculture sector include farmers, farmers clubs, farmer associations, cooperatives and fisher folk. They need location specific weekly, sub-seasonal and seasonal temperature and rainfall outlook and expected long term changes in rainfall and temperature. To take farming decisions such as selection of cultivars, decision on planting dates, irrigation practices, time and quantum of application of fertilizer and pest management, it is necessary to provide bi-weekly/weekly agro-advisories on key crops, livestock and fisheries. Respondents also requested information about likeliness, timing and potential impacts of severe weather events such as wet and dry (drought) spells, temperature extremes and cyclone warning to manage the crop production risk. They also requested potential impacts of short- to medium-term climate change on crops/ livestock/ fisheries/ management practices for making decisions on investment decisions.

Sub-national (district / state) level stakeholders includes officials of Department of Agriculture, Agrometeorological field units, Agricultural universities, farmers training centres, emergency planners, extension services and NGOs. They need seamless forecasts on rainfall, temperature, wind speed and cloud cover for making sub-national policy and planning including risk management and budgeting, reservoir planning, ground water management and for planning input purchase and supply.

National level stakeholders include Ministries of Agriculture, Food Security and Rural Development, Fertilizer industry and crop Insurance companies. Information required by them are monsoon status, departure of monsoon rainfall from normal conditions, seamless forecast information, coastal flood warnings, early warning of extreme events such cyclones, drought and flood and heat waves for and likely social & economic impacts would help in issuing timely warnings to relevant public and private sector players. Climate information is used for making national policy and development plans including vulnerability mapping, risk assessment/ management, investment planning, estimating agricultural productivity for planning export and import of commodities and for development of weather based crop insurance products.

Climate end-users assessment in Niger: Present status and lessons learned Yacine Fall, WMO/NORCAP, Niger

In Niger, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) through the Global Framework for Climate Services (GFCS) has already conducted National Consultations on Climate Services and a National Action Plan on Climate Services has been formulated and nationally endorsed, providing a master plan to guide priority investments in support of national climate services since 2017. Under the coordination of the Niger National met office some projects contributing to the implementation of this action plan and focus on end user’s access to climates services are implemented in some regions. As part of the collaboration

44 Appendix 4: Abstracts with the National met office of Niger, A climate end-user assessment was carried out for NORCAP Climate Services Project. NORCAP is working to strengthenthe climate services in the region and this in- depth assessment with end-user was to assess the current access and use of climate services among the root level end-users Niger (i.e. fishermen, farmers, pastoralists). The climate end-user assessment gave an opportunity to understand community involvement in the co-production of climate services and feedback mechanisms for climate services to the climate information providers. The assessment specifically focused on gender-segregated feedback on climate services access in the assessed communities. This is to better understand women’s current access to and use of climate services and their role in co-production. The assessment also analyzed the delivery channels for climate services to understand what channels are the most user-friendly and accessible. The key highlights during the study were finding the use of climate information is very important in planning their agricultural and daily activities, especially, for women. The radio is the most trusted source of climate information and also the feedback channel. It was established that participatory radio was the preferred format of radio shows on climate issues with users of climate information as this enables them toto provide feedback through phone calls and the radio show is widely useful if conducted in the local language.

Agroclimatic information products and networks in Latin America: a systematic and user-centered approach for their assessment Diana Giraldo, University of Reading

In many countries, a myriad of agroclimatic information products has emerged (such as periodic bulletins and apps). These products cover a spectrum of needs and quality levels, and often overlap and reuse information from each other, forming a complex information "ecosystem." To assess the contribution of each product and the remaining gaps in information provision, as well as the usability of the individual products, an assessment approach is needed that has been lacking so far. Here we report on the development of a systematic and user-centered approach to assess climate information products and their networks; and their application to product sets covering the nexus of climate, agriculture, and food security in Guatemala and Colombia. Across both countries, we assessed 28 products used for agricultural decision making, outreach, planning research, and design of emergency responses. While climate-only information products play a central role in each network, other products intended to support agriculture and food security need to integrate information from different themes or disciplines and sources at different scales. We find that major improvements in the credibility, legitimacy, scale, cognition, procedures, recommendations, and content of most existing products are required. Our experience suggests that the approach proposed here will be especially useful for strengthening internal self-assessment processes, oriented towards learning from experience and reflecting on the lessons learned. Aspects of our approach that contribute towards satisfying these conditions include the iterative nature of the process, the participation of stakeholders throughout the study, the production of comparable data across different contexts and its novelty. Ultimately, the approach we propose is valuable for facilitating the prioritization of actions for improvement and/or the development of new products, thereby helping climate services for agriculture and food security to realize their true potential.

45 Appendix 4: Abstracts

State of Practice: Monitoring and Evaluation of Climate Services Marina Baldissera Pacchetti Ousmane Ndiaye Hen-I Lin T.S Amjath-Babu

Session Lead: Marta Bruno Soares, University of Leeds

Assessing quality of information for adaptation Marina Baldissera Pacchetti, University of Leeds, United Kingdom

There are now a plethora of data, models and approaches available to produce climate information intended to inform adaptation to a changing climate. There is, however, no analytical framework to assess the epistemic issues concerning the quality of these data, models and approaches. An evaluation of the quality of climate information is a fundamental characteristic for its interpretation in the context of societal decision-making. By integrating insights from the philosophy of science, environmental social science and physical climate science, we develop an analytical framework for “science-based statements about future climate” that allows for an assessment of their quality for adaptation planning. In particular, we target statements about local and regional climate with a lead time of one to one hundred years. We argue that the quality of these statements is related to (1) the quality and type of evidence which underlies these statements (e.g. observational/model time-series data, proxy data, expert judgment, etc.), and (2) the quality of the relationship between the evidence and the statement (e.g. validity of the methodological details regarding how the information is extracted from the evidence, or how different lines of evidence are aggregated, etc.). These two components contribute to standard quality descriptors in the literature, such as “robustness”, “reliability”, “adequacy”, and satisfactory “uncertainty assessment and communication”. We argue that our framework can go further and provide guidelines on when quantitative statements about future climate are warranted, when these statements should take other forms (e.g. qualitative statements), and when statements about future climate are not warranted at all.

Using USSD as a tool to improve real-time access to weather and climate information: Evaluation of a pilot program in Senegal Ousmane Ndiaye, ANACIM

In recent years, climate information has become an indisputable adaptation strategy to climate variability in Sub-Saharan African. In Senegal in particular, several climate information dissemination channels have been developed to facilitate the access of climate products by small-scale farmers. In 2018, a pilot climate information transmission system using the USSD functionality of mobile phones has been tested with four producers’ organizations during the cropping season. This study aims to evaluate the added value of this introduced innovative system in terms of improved access to climate information. Data were collected from the involved farmers and grey literature. Results showed that the USSD system enabled 4257 producers to get direct access on real time to weather forecasts and rainfall amounts. More than 88% of them attested that the system has allowed them to better manage the

46 Appendix 4: Abstracts timing of planting, weeding and applying fertilizers. Those who subscribed to index insurance got to know in advance whether they are eligible for compensation and adjust accordingly. To date, the involved producers are satisfied with the USSD system and with the received information as it guided their daily decision making. It is therefore important to consider the USSD system as an adapted climate information dissemination channel for the sustainability of WCIS and scaling up of index insurance.

Evaluating the value of climate services using hindcast based experiments: A south Asian case study T.S Amjath-Babu, International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT), Bangladesh

Organizations involved in climate information and services supply frequently assume that the provision of forecasts (both seasonal and short-term) and associated agricultural advisories can substantially increase farm profits. Nevertheless, large scale public and private investment in provision of these services demand evaluation of their potential economic benefits. The value of a climate service is defined as the differential between the outcomes obtained with and without access to information, or conversely as the potential outcome if users had access to the service. Though most of climate services literature focuses on evaluating seasonal forecasts, the current study focuses on understanding the value of short-term forecast based agricultural advisory systems for smallholder wheat farmers in Nepal, India and Bangladesh. We develop a novel “hindcast experiment” as an ex ante approach that presents crucial weather variables like maximum temperature, minimum temperature and rainfall for the past cropping season(s) to farmers in graphical format, maps the key crop management operations and assesses the possible changes to weather-sensitive decisions by farmers if they were provided with advisories with 5 days of lead time. We randomly selected villages from within 10 Km radius synoptic meteorological stations in India (Bihar), Nepal (Terai) and Bangladesh. A switching regression based approach is used to create “what if” scenarios to capture potential changes in productivity if farmers had been given access to agro-advisories advocating shifting planting dates, using irrigation to avoid temperature stress and harvest before rainfall events. Farmers’ actual decisions were compared to a location-specific ideal decision set (planting date, irrigation at critical temperature thresholds and harvesting before rainfall event) and the deviations of the actual farmer decisions from the ideal are used to construct a composite index. Using the index, the dataset is divided two regimes (near and far from ideal) and counterfactuals are generated using the switching regression model. The results show a significant gain of 15-20% in wheat yields that could be attained if farmers’ practices can be changed similar to the ideal decision set by the provision of climate services. The possible factors that may hinder forecast based decision making are also captured in the study.

Enhancing Climate Service by Using Economic Valuation: A Great Partnership Story and Example at the Community Level in Taiwan Hen-I Lin, Chung-Hua Institution for Economic Research, Taiwan

In the last several years, Central Weather Bureau (CWB) has continuously sponsored the research team of Chung-Hua Institution for Economic Research (CIER) to explore the potential social benefits and economic values of CWB’s climate services. After the first pilot national face-to-face survey for farmers in 2013, we have proposed and initiated the first pilot program in a partner farmer’s association in Erlin since 2014. Contingent Valuation Method (CVM) is used in this research in order to evaluate the economic value of weather information service by interviewing agricultural crops producers in Erlin in Changhua County. We find that three major variables have statistically significant impacts on respondents’ willingness to pay (WTP), which is a proxy variable reflecting the importance of weather information to the farmers’ agricultural production. Those three variables include subjective scores to accuracy, risk perception of disaster reduction, and initial bid price of the questionnaire. 256 face-to- face surveys have been conducted, and 179 surveys are used for WTP estimation after eliminating the

47 Appendix 4: Abstracts protest samples. In average, the WTP estimate per agricultural household in the Erlin community is between NTD 4,408 and NTD 5,986 per year. The aggregate economic value of using weather information for farmers in Erhlin would be around NTD 16.75 ~22.74 million per year statistically under 95% confidence interval.

In the following two years, we investigate how to increase the potential economic values by partnering with CWB and the local farmer’s association to enhance the capability of farmer using weather information with many activity designs. This study invite rice farmers and dragon fruit farmers as our participants in the experimental activities. We observe the farmers attend the weather information promotion events from 2014 to 2016, and compare their variables of subjective scores to accuracy in the experimental group and control group. By understanding the changes in this independent variable, we can evaluate and infer the economic value of the promoting weather information application for agricultural users. Our findings show that rice farmers have greater positive WTP changes due to those activities than dragon fruit farmers. In terms of the type of the events, the highest potential utility takes place in hosting seminar, the second would be small group discussing, the third is the APP teaching workshop. The results from our findings have become a solid and persuasive evidence for CWB to further promote their climate service for the users in agriculture in Taiwan.

48 Appendix 4: Abstracts

State of Practice: Contextualizing Climate Information

Caroline Staub Sam Poskitt Grit Martinez Quentin Lejeune

It takes a village: Developing climate services in Haiti's agricultural sector Caroline Staub, University of Florida, United States

Haiti is highly susceptible and sensitive to changes in weather and climate conditions. Despite the severe impacts of climate variability on the country’s economy, farmers lack access to improved agricultural technologies and safety net programs to help them overcome recurrent shocks. In addition, Haiti’s National Weather Service (NWS) offices were destroyed in the 2010 earthquake, and the country’s climate data infrastructure was extensively damaged. Since 2016, the USAID-funded Appui a la Recherche et au Développement Agricole (AREA) project used multiple approaches to develop climate services in the agricultural sector. We developed low-cost wireless weather stations and installed them at agricultural research centers to provide researchers, agronomists and others with reliable meteorological data. To ensure sustainability, we trained Haitians to build, maintain and use data from the weather stations. We worked with Haitian instructors to develop and evaluate a web-based tool for university students to use satellite data to visualize historical trends in climate conditions on El Niño– Southern Oscillation (ENSO) years. We conducted an analysis of farmers’ decision-making and existing capacity to cope with climate shocks in Haiti’s Kenscoff region. In parallel, we trained staff members at the NWS to rescue, compile and check the quality of climate data, and connected the NWS with Kenscoff farmers through a pilot training on climate risk management with the Participatory Climate Services for Agriculture (PICSA) approach. I will briefly outline the process we used for each activity, identify successes and failures and provide recommendations for efforts aiming to co-generate and transfer climate services within Haiti’s agricultural sector. AREA's work suggests a holistic approach that connects and empowers multiple audiences to develop solutions to meet the challenges presented by climate change.

Contextualising a participatory climate services approach for small-scale farmers in Bangladesh Sam Poskitt, University of Reading, United Kingdom

Small scale farmers in Bangladesh are among those most heavily affected by climate variability and change. Participatory Integrated Climate Services for Agriculture (PICSA) is a participatory climate services approach that supports small scale farmers to make informed decisions under variable and changing climate and weather conditions. It does this through combining: 1) accurate, location specific climate and weather information; 2) relevant crop, livestock and livelihood options; and 3) use of participatory decision-making tools. It has been successfully implemented in more than 20 countries worldwide, at different scales. In 2018 PICSA was implemented in South Asia for the first time through a pilot in Bangladesh. This targeted five districts, each with locally-specific climate-related challenges and opportunities, and aimed to assist farmers’ planning and decision-making for the 2018-19 ‘Rabi’ (dry) growing season. Although evaluations have shown that PICSA was successful in the countries in which it

49 Appendix 4: Abstracts has been implemented thus far, adapting it to the complex climatic conditions, multiple cropping systems, and diverse rural livelihood options of Bangladesh’s farmers presented new challenges and associated opportunities. In this paper we reflect on the measures taken to contextualise the information and tools used in PICSA to optimise the usefulness of the approach for Bangladeshi farmers. We then assess how effective these measures were, through analysis of survey, interview and focus group data that explored Bangladeshi farmers’ perceptions of and responses to PICSA. We find that most farmers considered PICSA useful for their planning and decision-making, and that most of them made changes in their agricultural practices, especially trying new crops and livestock, changing amounts of irrigation, and changing their agricultural management practices after receiving PICSA training. The results indicate that the PICSA approach is flexible and can be useful for farmers in different agro-ecological and climatic areas. However, this requires careful planning and contextualisation ahead of implementation, and this process requires the involvement of appropriate national partner institutions. We also consider how PICSA could be tailored further to improve its usefulness for Bangladeshi farmers, specifically how it could better support farmers’ decision-making about the timing of different crops and their associated activities.

The formation of climate services in complex embedded cultural systems: Four cases from the INNOVA project Grit Martinez, Ecologic Institute

The contribution deals with dimensions of vulnerability and resilience to changing climatic conditions in four case studies of the ERA4CS project INNOVA (Innovation in Climate Service Provision). It specifically focuses on the influence of culture on risk coping mechanism of various actors and their specific needs for climate services. The analysis is based on a Framework for Risks and Vulnerabilities Perception Analysis. The overall aim is to gain a better understanding on the role of culture concerning the translation of climate-related information and services into coping capacities to increase resilience. The contribution illustrates on a specific case study ( French West Indies) that climate services must meet stakeholder’s needs that are the result of specific natural, socio-cultural and economic conditions in a given region spurred by awareness, knowledge and cooperation. It contributes to the generation of contextual knowledge for developing holistic solutions for climates services.

The ISIpedia Portal: an effort to ensure the co-production and effective transfer of national-level climate impacts knowledge to decision-makers Quentin Lejeune, Climate Analytics

The last IPCC reports have highlighted a number of risks that increase with global warming, which would lead to disproportionately high impacts on vulnerable and already disadvantaged populations. Future climate changes therefore pose long-term challenges to development. Effective management of these risks requires decision-makers to have access to climate impact information based on the best available science that can be integrated into policy options for adaptation.

The modelling community from the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (www.isimip.org) has delivered consistent projections of the impacts of climate change across affected sectors and spatial scales, under different climate-change and socio-economic scenarios. The ISIpedia project aims to make this large source of information policy-relevant and directly available to a diversity of stakeholders involved in decision-making at the sub-regional to national levels, by ensuring them a stake in the knowledge production process and developing a user-friendly interface for the dissemination of climate impact information.

50 Appendix 4: Abstracts

Its end product will be an online climate services portal – isipedia.org – delivering subcontinental- to national-level, state-of-the-art climate impact assessments with broad sector coverage, based on the multi-model simulations from ISIMIP. ISIpedia targets adaptation planners (e.g. involved in National Adaptation Plans) and practitioners, regional knowledge hubs, trans- and interdisciplinary scientists, including climate economists, and regional climate experts from the private sector. The project relies on a continuous engagement with these target groups.

ISIpedia started with a kick-off workshop in October 2017 gathering ISIMIP modellers and ~20 stakeholders who delivered suggestions to broker ISIMIP climate impact information and enhance its uptake by adaptation practitioners. Broader feedback was collected in a survey in February 2018, and workshops were held in the two focus regions, Eastern Europe and West Africa, to ensure the co- development of specifically policy-relevant indicators.

51 Appendix 4: Abstracts

State of Practice: Advancing the Communication of Climate Science Joseph Daron Archita Bhatta Graham Clarkson Monica Petri

Communicating climate model projections of future precipitation change Joseph Daron, Met Office, United Kingdom

Understanding how precipitation over a region may change in the future is important for determining appropriate climate change policies and adaptation interventions. Climate models are the primary tools used to provide information on future precipitation change but communicating and interpreting the results of different model simulations is non-trivial. Using an online survey, targeted at producers and users of climate model information, we compare and evaluate interpretations of different approaches used to summarise and visualise climate model projections. The survey results reveal large differences in how people interpret future precipitation changes based on choices made in how to summarise and visualise the climate data. All respondents, including those with experience in generating climate projections, typically underestimate model uncertainty when provided with the multi-model mean or percentile information. We conclude that whilst there is no optimal way to communicate multi-model ensemble climate projections, the use of some conventional methods, including those adopted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, can lead to distorted interpretations. To help improve the interpretation and use of climate model projections in climate services to guide societal decision- making, providers and users ought to be aware of the impacts of using different communication approaches.

Session on Public participation in making climate services a public good—the road ahead Archita Bhatta, Vigyan Prasar, India

Climate science, like any other study gains relevance only when it spreads its arms to reach outside the generators of the knowledge. It is then that it becomes part of the political and economic decision process. This requires that the enhancement of the communication and use of climate information relevant to the policy makers and to the public at large. This session will deal with opportunities and challenges in reaching out to a larger audience, making it relevant and interesting for them. The efforts for this starts even before the climate information is generated and not as earlier understood after the generation of the information. Science has for long had a top down approach to knowledge. This session will focus on bottoms up approach to science which implies that the questions of science may also be generated from the public. This session on deals with involving public in generating questions that need solutions or answers through climate services, generating awareness among societal actors about their vulnerability to climate change, the need for relevant products and services offered by the scientific community, the format in which the information is provided, and the business model needed by climate services. The session will bring in experts in different fields who are involved in communication of climate information and discuss these various aspects of climate communication. It will feature the diversity of experts needed to make climate services relevant and interesting to the people. The experts

52 Appendix 4: Abstracts may include experts in climate science, specialists in impact, adaptation, and vulnerability, representatives of the corporate world, policy makers, agents of the public service as well as social managers and communication specialists. They will work on a roadmap on they can collectively reach the information to the people. Panels 1) Climate services for policy decisions; 2) Communication & the role of communication packages & products; 3) User community, corporate & grassroot users, their questions & demands on climate services.

The potential for mobile apps as part of climate services delivery. The experience of the PICSA Extension Toolkit in Malawi Graham Clarkson, University of Reading, United Kingdom

Mobile technology is increasingly being used to provide smallholder farmers with agricultural and climate / weather related information. There is currently great interest in its ability to communicate climate and weather information to meet the demand identified by farmers. This paper presents reflections and key lessons learned from a pilot of the PICSA Extension Toolkit in two districts of Malawi. We discuss the pros and cons of using mobile technology to work with extension staff and farmers. The PICSA extension toolkit is a collection of mobile and web apps that were developed to support the existing PICSA approach. This innovation was piloted over a period of two agricultural seasons with 45 extension staff across the two districts. PICSA is a participatory extension approach that integrates climate services information and supports farmer decision making and planning. The extension toolkit includes apps to produce, visualise and analyse historical climate information, to compile participatory budgets and refresher video material for extension staff. Evaluation in the two districts included observation of training, focus group discussions and a quantitative survey. Key findings relating specifically to the PICSA extension toolkit include evidence from extension workers that the toolkit enhanced their skills in training farmers in the PICSA approach, evidence that extension staff displayed varying levels of integration of the toolkit into the PICSA training of farmers and that the tablet had a limiting effect on some farmers’ participation. Additional findings that are relevant to the use of mobile technology with extension staff include extension workers reporting that their networks of information sources had widened due to use of the tablet, increased communication and sharing of information between extension staff and their peers, the importance of careful piloting and consideration of practical and technical issues that are inherent with use of mobile technology, and an increase in the status of extension workers as a source of information which may support or undermine the role of extension workers in participatory innovation.

Passing the last mile: using loudspeakers to distribute climate services to farmers Lao PDR Viengxai Manivong, Department of Meteorology and Hydrology, Lao PDF

The FAO, with the support of GEF financing, is supporting the Department of Meteorology and Hydrology (DMH) of the Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment (MONRE) and the Department of Agricultural Land Management (DALaM) at the Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry (MAF) in order to provide real time climate services to a multiplicity of stakeholders in the agricultural sector. The Lao Climate Service for Agriculture (LaCSA) has been opened to the public on a demo version in May 2019 and provides a glimpse into the near future and helps different groups of people who have to make decisions to be better prepared. Bulletins are available through a Facebook page managed by the DMH (https://www.facebook.com/samisdmh).

Pilot activities for enabling farmers to use bulletin have been tested in 20 villages and 5 provinces. All project locations have received speaker system at village level, in collaboration with DONRE, PAFO and

53 Appendix 4: Abstracts

DAFO. The Laos National Radio has undertaken trainings to develop capacities to tell a story about the agro-meteorological information to district and province offices of MONRE and MAF. In total, approximately 25,295 people of which 12,659 women have been reached by climate services during the testing village speakers to broadcast the weekly and seasonal bulletins. In addition, in six selected villages farmer field schools have also been implemented. CIAT has development a monitoring system that aims at assessing the quality of the broadcasted messages, the usability of system in real time by farmers, and the behavioral change of farmers after obtaining the information. The paper will address lessons learned in the process of setting up LaCSA and some early findings on changes in knowledge, attitudes and practices of next and end-users of the platform across its different dissemination pathways.

54 Appendix 4: Abstracts

Sectoral Focus: Climate and Health

Jente Broeckx Ardhasena Sopaheluwakan Joy Shumake

Session leads: Joy Shumake-Guillemot, WHO/WMO and Hunter Jones, NOAA

Climate-Health services from local to regional and continental scales Jente Broeckx, VITO, Belgium

Human health will be strongly impacted by climate change. Mortality associated with heat waves will increase considerably and city dwellers are particularly in danger, as the urban heat-island effect exacerbates thermal stress. Climate change is also expected to affect the incidence, outbreak frequency, and distribution of many infectious diseases, mainly because of an altered distribution of infectious disease vectors. Therefore, the health community urges the climate community to provide tailor-made information for these topics. In this presentation we will give an overview of climate-health information products and services that have been developed by VITO in close collaboration with the European health community at local, regional and national level. The city of Antwerp is operating an urban heat alarm pilot. Data and forecasting information is modelled by VITO and a local monitoring station is used as a controlling mechanism. The pilot also includes tips and tricks about how to react or protect yourself from the heat. Finally, an interactive map is provided with all the cool spots in the area, both inside and outside. Within the Climate-fit.City European H2020 climate service demonstration project, an urban climate and health service was released as a web-based interactive tool showing heat vulnerability maps. The service is demonstrated at the headquarters of Public Health Agency of Barcelona. An epidemiological modelling of climate mortality association requires high spatial resolution of climate data in order to identify the relationship between high temperature and mortality at small geographical scale. The European Health service embedded within the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) delivers evidence regarding health impacts of past, present and future climate. Therefore, it provides support to decision-making challenges that are currently facing unmet climate data needs. Operational applications available on the Climate Data Store of C3S have been implemented for heat and cold stress, allergenic pollen and vector- borne diseases. The partner health institutes are located in Belgium, Hungary, Italy and Lithuania to cover a wide geographical area in Europe.

55 Appendix 4: Abstracts

Tailored Climate Services for Health in Indonesia: Development of Climate-Based Dengue Early Warning System Ardhasena Sopaheluwakan, Agency for Meteorology Climatology and Geophysics, Indonesia

Dengue is considered as one of the diseases that draw public-health concern due to its rapid epidemic spread and its potentially life-threatening. Dengue also bear heavy economic costs on health system and society, both directly and indirectly. The incidence of dengue in Indonesia has increased significantly during the past 45 years with the peak incidence shifting from young children to older age groups. The existing practice of warning for dengue outbreaks are based on reported cases, hence highly depends on endemicity of the disease. This kind of warning is more useful for immediate responses, but not for advance prevention. Studies have shown significant correlation of temporal dengue cases with climate variations. There are many statistical models based on this relationship that have been constructed, emphasizing on the potential for developing climate-based early warning system. During 2017-2018, the Agency for Meteorology Climatology and Geophysics (BMKG) in close collaboration with the Regional Health Agency in Jakarta and Bandung Institute of Technology, has jointly developed climate services products for dengue early warning in Jakarta. The products consist of prediction of dengue cases and a climate suitability index up to three months lead time with considerably good skills. The development of this products truly reflects the spirit of the Global Framework for Climate Services (GFCS), in which it was developed through research activity involving academia and customized through systematic user interface meetings with the health sector, one of GFCS’s priority areas. The service was launched early 2019, just in time before the outbreak season in that year. It is aimed that the products will assist the public health decision makers in reducing the number of dengue cases as well as in planning their prevention programs for dengue risk and hence reducing the overall economic burden associated with this disease. Building on the success and lessons learned from the development of the system in Jakarta, presently an effort is ongoing to replicate the service for the island of Bali, where the dengue incident rate is amongst the highest in the nation.

Progress and Lessons for Climate Services for Health Joy Shumake, WMO/WHO, Switzerland

Health professionals around the world are increasingly recognizing the potential to harness the expertise of the meteorological and climatatological communities to enhance disease detection and health risk monitoring, in order to provide insights to anticipate problems and take action to save lives. Climate services for health are an emerging field of applied science that brings together professionals from diverse sectors to create tools and services that improve understanding of weather and climate influences on health outcomes and service delivery. This presentation will contribute to the stocktaking of progress on global climate services, by describing how the World Health Organization and the World Meteorological Organization have joined forces to implement the Global Framework for Climate Services. It will reflect on the spectrum of common health policy and practice needs for meteorological and climatological information; describe progress made, and highlight emerging lessons and frontiers for achieving effective environmental and climate science applications for public health impact.

56 Appendix 4: Abstracts

Sectoral Focus: Heat Health

Andreas Matzarakis Subhash Bhan Dipak Shridhar Zade Hunter Jones

Session Leads: Joy Shumake-Guillemot, WHO / WMO and Hunter Jones, NOAA

The Heat Health Warning System in Germany – Development and applications Andreas Matzarakis German Meteorological Service, Germany

After the heat waves in the year 2003 and the statements of IPCC about the increase and the related consequences several countries in Europe decided to develop or implement a Heat Health Warning System (HHWS) and provide information for general public and public health. In Germany, weather Forecast is used to predict heat episodes, which are associated with negative health impacts. Therefore, a heat balance model of the human body and an extracted equivalent temperature (Perceived Temperature) is applied. Thresholds for strong and extreme heat stress based on thermal perception classification are used and build the first approach of the HHWS. Furthermore, the threshold of strong heat stress includes a short term adaptation component and considers the previous thermal stress conditions of the last 30 days. The second step includes nocturnal conditions, based on forecasted minimum air temperature or a simulated maximum indoor temperature for typical houses. The indoor temperature is calculated also based on a urban heat model for cities with a population over 100.000 inhabitants. Both criteria are important for the decision about warnings for the present and next days. Warnings are generated by daily weather forecast automatically and are additionally confirmed or adjusted by a biometeorological forecaster. The warning is valid on county level considering several elevation classes. The heat warning is available as a map on the internet and registered users can receive information by a daily newsletter. A specific smartphone app is also available for general use. The main target groups are the public, nursing homes and ministries of the federal states and other authorities. The HHWS is in operation since 2005 and preliminary studies indicate a reduction of the heat related mortality after implementation. The HHWS with his regional differentiation of heat stress warnings is also part of the heat health action plans in Germany.

Climate services for the health sector: Online tool to access location-specific temperature indicators Shubhayu Saha, Emory University, United States

Extreme heat is a major global health hazard, and its impact will get worse as summers are projected to become hotter, longer and more frequent heatwaves. The impact will be particularly severe across South Asia, where already thousands of people die and many more fall ill every summer. For an effective public health response, we need to identify the location-specific health risks from extreme heat. We contribute to this growing effort in different parts of India by creating an online information portal that provides district-level information on extreme heat metrics. This information will make it easier for health professionals to access that temperature information specific to the jurisdictions they work in and conduct health risk analyses. We obtained daily maximum temperature information from the Indian

57 Appendix 4: Abstracts

Meteorological Department for 1985-2014 using the High Resolution 1x1 degree gridded dataset. Using a Geographic Information System, we assigned each district in India to a grid based on how close the district geographic centroid was to the IMD grid centroids. Based on this methodology, we created an online portal through which the daily temperature data is made available for each district of India. Given that the health data is available at the district level, this tool can be very useful for health professionals to access the historical temperature information to conduct health risk assessments. Based on the availability of information, temperature forecasts can also be incorporated into the tool to provide health professionals with advanced information on heatwaves to initiate health response strategies. This could be a useful communication tool besides the regular efforts by the meteorological community to inform various sectors of impending extreme weather phenomenon. We will like to demonstrate this tool at the conference and get valuable feedback on ways to make it useful and add more functionality.

Heat Stress and Vulnerability: A Study in Rural Semi-Arid Region of Maharashtra Dipak Shridhar Zade, WOTR, India

India is facing increased incidences of heat waves during summers with severe health consequences for the people. In 2016, 40% of all the deaths in India due to extreme weather conditions were due to severe heat waves. The understanding of the impacts of heat stress on rural areas where a large chunk of the population resides is a blind spot. Individuals in the working age group are exposed to the outdoor heat stress whereas children, women and elders are exposed to indoor heat stress. At present there are very few studies that have explored the heat vulnerabilities of the rural population. This study was conducted in five villages located across two districts of Maharashtra. A sample household survey was conducted in 285 households. Indoor temperature and humidity were measured using 20 data loggers. An automated weather station was installed at one study site to measure outdoor temperature. The study objectives were to understand the differential vulnerability to heat stress, to quantify the heat related symptoms and to examine various coping measures employed by the communities. Exposure to heat stress in both indoor and outdoor settings was reported. It was found that indoor temperature in houses with tin roof was more as compared to outdoor temperature during peak heat hours. Factors such as gender, age, presence of pre- exisiting health conditions and wealth were significantly associated with Heats Related Symptom (HRS) occurances. Similarly, the exposure factors like roofing material, house ventilation and working outdoor during peak heat hours were also significantly associated with occurances of HRS. The existing coping strategies of the people were found to be inadequate to prevent the indoor and outdoor heat stress. Future climatic predication predict that heat waves will be more severe and intense. Hence long term pre-emptive strategies such as development of effective surveillance mechanism to monitor heat related mortality and morbidity and improvement in rural health infrastructure are needed. The Heat Action Plans should take into consideration the needs and context of rural areas. Improving housing design for enhancing ventilation and reducing the adverse impacts of tin roofs will help reduce vulnerability to indoor heat stress.

The National Integrated Heat Health Information System - Climate Information to Manage Heat Risk Hunter Jones, NOAA, United States

The National Integrated Heat Health Information System (NIHHIS) was launched in 2015 as a joint collaboration between the Met and Health agencies of the US with the goal of improving the information available to support risk management decisions for heat health. As an Integrated

58 Appendix 4: Abstracts

Information System, NIHHIS takes a broad-spectrum approach to informing planning, preparedness, and early action, by informing and improving health and climate observing systems, foundational knowledge, modeling and assessment, and importantly, understanding the information needs of various disciplines to integrate and enhance information collaboratively with users to support better decisions. This presentation will provide an overview of the activities of NIHHIS, including findings from recent regional workshops to define stakeholder needs, ongoing experimental product development, and anticipated future directions for the system. Development of a Heat Vulnerability Index to Improve Urban Public Health Management: A Case Study of Khulna City, Bangladesh. Muhammad Mainuddin Patwary, Environmental Science Discipline, Khulna University, Bangladesh

Rapid urbanization has globally altered the natural landscapes to impervious surfaces, led to increase the intensity of urban heat island. Increased frequency, duration and high intensity of extreme heat events are significantly associated with the public health issues to heat related stress. A prior identification of high risk area and greater information on vulnerable populations are required for better management of heat related health risks. The present study, therefore, developed a heat vulnerability index (HVI) map for Khulna City of Bangladesh. Satellite-based remote sensing images combined with socio-demographic variables were used to develop the HVI. Landsat 8 (TIRS/OLI) image was used to estimate the land surface temperature (LST). Socio-demographic variables (e.g. age, population density, education) were derived from census tract. The Principal Component Analysis was used to reduce the correlated variables in fewer uncorrelated components and the HVI was calculated as the sum of component scores. The index with highest number was considered to be most vulnerable and lowest number to be least vulnerable. The HVI was then mapped based on five class scale (very high, high, moderate, low and very low) to show spatial vulnerability across the city. The results show that most vulnerable tract is concentrated in densely built-up and high residential areas. Vegetated landscapes and water bodies are found to have coolest areas in the city. The results also found that people living in highly built-up areas and having low socioeconomic status are most vulnerable to heat health risk. The findings of the study can be useful for policy makers for designing heat mitigation strategy in urban areas of Bangladesh.

Climate services for the health sector: Online tool to access location-specific temperature indicators Hunter Jones, NOAA and Shubhayu Saha, Emory University

We obtained daily maximum temperature information from the Indian Meteorological Department for 1985-2014 using the High Resolution 1x1 degree gridded dataset. Using a Geographic Information System, we assigned each district in India to a grid based on how close the district geographic centroid was to the IMD grid centroids. Based on this methodology, we created an online portal through which the daily temperature data is made available for each district of India. Given that the health data is available at the district level, this tool can be very useful for health professionals to access the historical

59 Appendix 4: Abstracts temperature information to conduct health risk assessments. Based on the availability of information, temperature forecasts can also be incorporated into the tool to provide health professionals with advanced information on heatwaves to initiate health response strategies. This could be a useful communication tool besides the regular efforts by the meteorological community to inform various sectors of impending extreme weather phenomenon. We will like to demonstrate this tool at the conference and get valuable feedback on ways to make it useful and add more functionality.

60 Appendix 4: Abstracts

Sectoral Focus: Agriculture and Food Security I

Srinivasa Rao Gattineni Ramaraj Palanisamy Tasiana Mzozo Moin Salam

Session Lead: Steve Zebiak, CCAFS

Dana Pandan – Bundling of Products and Services for Smallholder Farmer’s Resilience Srinivasa Rao Gattineni, Syngenta Foundation for Sustainable Agriculture, India

Farming is a risky business. Farmers in most of the developing economies are exposed to many weather- related risks. Most effective and quick mechanisms to address those risks and provide resilience to smallholder farmers are 1) customized inputs package and timely advisory services on good agronomical practices and integrated pest and disease management to reduce the potential losses through cultural and management practices and 2) crop insurance to provide financial support in case of yield losses in spite of best efforts. We observed that in most of the emerging markets, agriculture extension system is not well established and hence, farmers are still following traditional agricultural practices and are not able to tap the benefits of advances in modern climate smart agricultural practices. We also observed that crop insurance as a standalone product is not very attractive to smallholder farmers due to lack of awareness and poor financial status to pay the premium. So, Syngenta Foundation for Sustainable Agriculture (SFSA) has introduced a concept on bundling of products and services in order to improve smallholder farmer resilience to climate related shocks and helping the transition from traditional way of farming to fully professional climate resilient commercial way of climate smart farming.

SFSA is piloting the concept of bundling of products and services through the program “Dana Pandan – Safe and Sustainable Agriculture Fund” in Indonesia since 2017. Agriculture in Indonesia is one of the key sectors and it provides jobs to approximately 38.7 million Indonesians, representing 30.5% of the country's total productive labour force. Resource limited smallholder farmers in Indonesia are prone to risks related to agronomic activity and climatic conditions, which leads to negative coping mechanism due to their asset shortage and little to no access to formal and financial risk mitigation tools. Hence, SFSA is implementing Dana Pandan Program with a view to improve smallholder farmer resilience to climate related shocks through bundling of agriculture insurance solutions with agriculture finance, quality inputs and advisory services on good agronomical practices along with climate information.

SFSA has launched its first pilot in Indramayu Regency, West Java during the wet season 2017-2018, resulting in an average of 23.4% increase in rice crop productivity in the face of severe drought during the growing season. The pilot program also concluded that bundled insurance solutions with finance, quality inputs and advisory services leads to increased farmer’s demand for crop insurance due to increased value proposition of the bundled solution. Further scaling up efforts are undergoing by SFSA, focus on enhancing business and operational capacity with a target to implement in 10 Regencies in Java during the year 2020.

61 Appendix 4: Abstracts

Building resilience to wheat blast in Brazil and Bangladesh with climate science, disease modeling and digital extension Moin Salam, International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center

Wheat blast, caused by Magnaporthe oryzae pathotype Triticum, i a potentially severe disease in South America and in Bangladesh. Infections vary with weather conditions, cultivars, location and time. Most disease management programs focus on host resistance and/or calendar-based fungicide application. This can be a concern for environmental and human health; smallholders may also not be able to afford repetitive chemical control. An alternative to increase farmers’ resilience to blast is to use weather forecasts and disease models to predict and when and where the infection might occur, and to deliver appropriate advisories to farmers to take preventative action. The challenge is how to deploy advisories at scale. This paper describes efforts to develop a wheat blast ‘early warning system’ (EWS) in Bangladesh using models initially developed in Brazil. The EWS uses numerical weather forecasts to simulate inoculum build-up during wheat growth. Infection risk is derived from simulated inoculum amount and a rule-set using meteorological variables. The EWS will use interactive voice recognition to deliver advisories tailored to men and women farmers’ information preferences by telephone. This paper describes these efforts and provides insights for similar activities aiming to marry climate smart agriculture, integrated pest management, and digital extension.

Using climate services to tackle extreme weather events in Malawi Tsiana Mzozo, NORCAP

Extreme weather events are becoming more frequent in Malawi with grave impacts on human beings, their health and their livelihoods. In 2019 alone, Malawi was affected by the flooding prior to and during cyclone Idai’s landfall. Strong winds have left thousands homeless and a heatwave with a record 44oC in some districts seem to have worsened the health conditions of individuals particularly the chronically ill causing death. In 2015/16 the country experienced drought linked to the 2015/16 El Nino event. This caused food and water shortages and resulted in diseases outbreaks such as cholera in the country. Malawi experiences cycles of drought and floods associated with El Nino and La Nina events which are now occurring with shorter spans of about 2-7 years for each.

Bordering Mozambique, Malawi is also prone to cyclones. Some studies indicate that submarine volcanic eruptions may be contributing to enhanced sea surface temperatures in the Indian Ocean as well as the frequency and magnitude of cyclones in and around the Mozambican channel. Two major cyclones, Idai and Kenneth, made landfall on Mozambique in 2019, with the stronger one, cyclone Idai, bearing winds of over 200km/h, affecting a large area including Malawi and Zimbabwe. Scientists are warning that the warming of the ocean coupled with heating from the sun as well as other atmospheric conditions are likely to influence the occurrence of more intense cyclones in the future which may affect Malawi.

The increasing frequency and magnitude of these events have increased the demand for timely climate services among with the populace and key climate service users. WMO with funding from NORAD and through its national partner, Department of Climate Change and Meteorological Services (DCCMS) and WHO, WFP and IFRC are employing both traditional and ICT dissemination strategies under the second phase of Global Framework for Climate services-Adaptation Programme for Africa (GFCS-APA II) to build resilience to extreme weather events using DRR, health and agricultural advisories. NORCAP, Norwegian Refugee Council’s Global provider of Expertise, supports this project with an expert deployed as Project manager. This presentation will also articulate challenges that still remain to ensure effective climate services and resilience.

62 Appendix 4: Abstracts

Provision of localized weather and climate information services through Intelligent agricultural System Advisory Tool (ISAT) AP Ramaraj, ICRISAT

Provision of localized climate advisory services has great potential to influence strategic and tactical farmer decision-making and shield farmers against the risks posed by variable and changing climate. Decision makers at international, national and local level are increasingly concerned by the mounting risks of climate variability and change, and there is a growing demand for better climate information at all levels. Conversely, delivering such location specific, and actionable information to millions of farmers operating across diverse environment requires innovative solutions. To address this, ICRISAT have developed and piloted one such system called “Intelligent agricultural Systems Advisory Tool – ISAT” capable of generating and disseminating advisories. ISAT is a web application with a structured framework and uses a decision tree approach to map decisions automatically. The decisions are mapped based on data analytics at micro level and it also considers climate and weather forecasts. ISAT delivers pre monsoon and in season advisories from 2017. Mid season surveys revealed the influence of advisories on farmers sowing decisions. Mid and end season surveys revealed that farmers from all piloted villages were satisfied with the frequency, relevance and understandability of the messages delivered. This study demonstrated the opportunities available to harness the untapped power of digital technologies to provide actionable advisories timely to smallholder farmers using appropriate data analytics and information dissemination systems.

63 Appendix 4: Abstracts

Sectoral Focus: Agriculture and Food Security II

Viengxai Manivong Diana Giraldo Niaz Md. Farhat Rahman Tufa Dinku Jim Hansen

Session Lead: Steve Zebiak, CCAFS

LaCSA, Laos Climate Services for Agriculture Viengxai Manivong, Department of Meteorology and Hydrology (DMH), Lao PDR

Weather is one of the strongest factors influencing agricultural production and timely access to weather forecasts allows producers to make the right decisions to maximize their harvest or minimize their losses. The FAO, with GEF financing, is supporting the Department of Meteorology and Hydrology (DMH) of the Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment (MONRE) and the Department of Agricultural Land Management (DALaM) at the Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry (MAF) to provide real time climate services to a multiplicity of stakeholders in the agricultural sector. The “Laos Climate Services for Agriculture (LaCSA)” platform supports producers, service and input suppliers, and government decision makers in anticipating the coming growing season and taking the best course of action to reduce the impacts of climate variability, and provides a glimpse into the near future and helps different groups of people into making decisions to better prepare for the coming cropping season.

Information generated through LaCSA is public and can be accessed online by different tools including: - Fully functioning, real time input data from 65 weather stations installed in collaboration with Asian Development Bank (ADB), World Bank (WB), Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA), and United Nation’s Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO); -A 3-hourly and a seven days weather forecast; - Seasonal forecast over six months with monthly forecast data; -Agro-meteorological indices (Agromet index) such as plant Growing Degree Days (GDD), rainfall amount and distribution; drought intensity and length; and likelihood of insect pest and plant disease outbreaks.

Bulletins are available through the Facebook managed by the DMH (https://www.facebook.com/samisdmh) and provide a seasonal bulletin for each province and a weekly agromet bulletin for each district providing weather forecast, climate smart agriculture recommendations and pest and diseases risk advisory.

The paper will address lessons learned from the platform across different stages of production and data management and distribution. Future improvements including real time reporting of pest and disease outbreak developed by the Plant Protection Center, and the field data collection protocols for real time agronomical data that is being developed by National Agricultural and Forestry Research Instituted (NAFRI) and CIAT jointly with DALaM.

64 Appendix 4: Abstracts

Farmers in Motion: Latin American Climate Services in Action Diana Giraldo, University of Reading, United Kingdom and CIAT, Colombia

Weather and climate services agencies need to have a continuous dialogue with the users to attain feedback as apart of ongoing evaluation and development of information, products and services. Hence, there is a gap between climate information, knowledge and its use by farmers that the Participatory Integrated Climate Services for Agriculture (PICSA) approach can help close, adding value to the traditional method used by extension services in Latin America.

For PICSA, farmers engagement is paramount for climate services success, working with farmers in a participatory manner to support planning and decision-making, contribute to a bottom-up change and to generate adequate investment policies aimed at offering tailored solutions for the existing demand.

This research is the first study applying PICSA in Latin America and involved implementation in Colombia, Nicaragua, Guatemala and Honduras to investigate the potential of providing climate services for agriculture as a way to improve climate risk management. PICSA involves a Training-of-Trainers (ToT) approach for extension services, breakout sessions with farmers in a series of structured steps that includes actual and “dream scenario” maps, agroclimatic calendars, understanding the climate information and forecast, and participatory decision-making tools (for crops, livestock, livelihoods).

Using a mixed-methods approach to combine a quantitative survey with qualitative case study analyses, this poster outlines the reasons behind the farmers’ assessments and the decisions they made following their participation in the PICSA approach. 68% of the farmers made changes such as (i) planting a different crop or variety, (ii) changing management practices, (iii) changing planting date and (iv) modifying the type/quantity of inputs. This study demonstrates that PICSA stimulated farmers to consider and then implement a range of innovations, and also boosted the demand for improved climate services.

Weather Forecast based Rice Crop Management System in Bangladesh: An experimental approach for T. Aus season Niaz Md. Farhat Rahman, Bangladesh Rice Research Institute

Strengthening the early warning system to forecast extreme weather and provide action-oriented advisories is an essential step to increase rice yield as well as enhancing the farmer’s income. With this context, the study was conducted to assess the performance of weather forecast based rice crop management practices in comparison to traditional management. In this study, four districts during T. Aus season (April to August) were selected based on their diverse agro-climatic conditions: Rajshahi (cold & heat), Barishal (coastal flooding & waterlogging), Rangpur (cold and submergence) and Gazipur (favorable condition). Most popular and high yield potential varieties BR26, BRRI dhan48, and BRRI dhan65 were used in this regard. Randomized Complete Block (RCB) design with three replications was followed as field experimental design. Also, grain yield data was adjusted to 14% moisture content. The weather research and forecasting (WRF) model was used to generate weekly weather forecasts on rainfall (mm), temperature (0C), humidity (%) and wind speed (m/s). Based on weather forecasting advisories were made and practiced into the respective experimental field of all locations through email communication. Linear mixed model (LMM), mean comparison test were performed for four locations to estimate the mean yield, mean square error, and coefficient of variation and find out the overall and location-specific performance of forecast-based management practices. Results revealed that throughout the T. Aus season weather conditions for all locations were more or less similar pattern. Rajshahi had the most extreme weather condition, always high temperatures and low rainfall and

65 Appendix 4: Abstracts humidity. High rainfall was found in the Gazipur district. There is a good relationship between temperature and rainfall i.e. vice-versa. July is the highest rainfall and low-temperature month. On the other hand, May is the highest temperature and low rainfall month. LMM analysis showed there was a significant difference in management practices and the interaction of location and management practices meaning that yield of rice varieties varies in case of different management practices and yield also varies in different locations under different management practices. From the mean separation test, weather forecast based rice crop management practices performing better which produces 4.75 t/ha than traditional produce 3.91 t/ha. So, the research demonstrated high potential for field implications of the forecast based rice management practices resulted in 21.48% higher rice yield than the control plots with traditional management practices. Hence, analyses suggested weather forecast based rice crop management practices may be recommended for all locations in T. Aus rice cultivation having a similar environment as that of the experimental site.

ENACTS: Enabling Climate Services to Small-holder Farmers at Scale Tufa Dinku, International Research Institute for Climate and Society

The provision of climate services to small-holder framers in Africa at scale faces three main challenges: 1. Farmers capacity to access, understand and use climate information; 2. The capacity of the agriculture extension officers to access, translate and communicate climate information to the small-holder farmers; and 3. The capacity of national meteorological services to provide the required climate in formation at the appropriate temporal and spatial scales.

A Climate Services for Agriculture project implemented in Rwanda was able to overcome these challenges and provide climate information to over 100,000 framers directly, and to over a million farmers indirectly. The project overcame the first two challenges through the Participatory Integrated Climate Services (PICSA) approach, which helps farmers to make informed decisions based on location specific, climate and weather information; locally relevant crop, livestock and livelihood options; and with the use of participatory tools to aid their decision making. Through the PICSA approach, agricultural extension staff, non-governmental development agents as well as other intermediaries were trained to integrate climate services into their ongoing work with farming communities across Rwanda’s 30 districts. The third challenge listed above has two components: (i) availability of long time series of climate data at or near the framers’ plots; and (ii) climate information products (about 10 different graphs) for each location that are needed by PICSA. These challenges were overcome through the implementation of the ENACTS (Enhancing National Climate Services) approach. The ENACTS approach works with National Meteorological Services to improve the availability and quality of climate data as well as access to and use of climate information products. ENACTS overcomes data challenges by combining stations observations with satellite rainfall estimates. This approach was used to generate climate data every 4km across Rwanda going back over 35-years. The challenge with availability of specific products was overcome through ENACTS online climate information. products(maprooms). The ENACTS Maprooms provide an efficient way for the trained intermediaries to access location-specific data and graphs as they work with farmers and other local decision makers within the PICSA process.

Effectiveness, scalability and sustainability of agricultural climate services: Lessons from Rwanda and Ethiopia Jim Hansen, International Research Institute for Climate & Society

Where national agricultural extension services are strong, integrating climate services into agricultural extension offers a promising avenue both to enhance the reach of climate services, and enhance the relevance of agricultural extension. Agricultural climate services have experienced a proliferation of

66 Appendix 4: Abstracts innovative, donor-funded activities that seldom go beyond a pilot scale or sustain beyond the end of project funding. We have been working with partners since 2015 to strengthen agricultural climate services in Rwanda, and are at an earlier stage of a collaborative effort to strengthen agricultural climate services in Ethiopia. Our experience in Rwanda demonstrates the feasibility of scaling up the delivery of climate services to farmers through trained agricultural extension personnel, but also highlights the challenge of sustaining project successes. We are attempting to lessons from the Rwanda experience into our collaboration with partners in Ethiopia. Reflecting on our experiences in Rwanda and Ethiopia, we discuss factors that can enhance or constrain the effectiveness, scalability and sustainability of agricultural climate services delivered through agricultural extension.

67 Appendix 4: Abstracts

Sectoral Focus: Agriculture and Food Security II

Moin Salam Marta Bruno Soares Bharti Suthar Peter Dorward P Sujatha

Session Lead: Steve Zebiak

Climate services for lentil disease management in South Asia: What contribution can weather-driven models make? Moin Salam, International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT), Bangladesh

Lentil (Lens culinaris), an integral part of many nutrition-sensitive farming systems in South Asia, is significantly affected by diseases. Stemphylium blight, caused by the interaction of Stemphylium botryosum with prevailing weather conditions, in particular is a serious threat to the resilience of smallholders in Bangladesh, India and Nepal. This disease can vary among locations within a growing season and also between seasons within a location. Uncertainty in climactic conditions make it difficult to properly formulate financially-viable preventative disease control measures. We describe efforts to develop a weather-forecast based model to derive early warning system and inform farmers of disease risks. These efforts aim to rationalize the use of foliar fungicides to achieve financial gain while limiting environmental externalities. Data on the disease incidence, severity and yield were collected in 2018 and 2019 from 480 farmers’ fields in Bangladesh, India and Nepal. The model, ‘Stempedia’ was run in various the combinations of the six parameters of the model to scientifically derive the best combination that closely match with the observed 2018 season data across the regions. The calibrated best set of the model’s parameters significantly explained 70% of observed variation in disease severity (P<0.01) in measuring sites. The model has been validated with 2019 growing season data. Results show the model captures regional and seasonal variations in the disease severity in nature in response to weather. This paper reviews this work and describes the institutional arrangements and communication strategies to develop the world’s first digitally delivered early warning system for Stemphylium blight using disease models, weather forecasts, and voice messaging systems.

Exploring the added-value of MED-GOLD climate services across crops and agricultural regions Marta Bruno Soares, University of Leeds, United Kingdom

Climate change will affect different agricultural areas to different degrees. The Mediterranean Basin is a known hotspot of climate change, where higher than average projected impacts threaten an extremely rich biological and cultural diversity, including important staple crops such as olive, grape, and durum wheat. A major challenge for this region is therefore to increase the resilience of these crops to climate change so as to preserve the associated ecological, economic, and cultural heritage that is key to its sustainability. Climate services (Vaughan and Dessai, 2014) have the potential to help address expected climate impacts on agricultural systems such as decreased areas of crop suitability, altered onset of

68 Appendix 4: Abstracts phenological stages, reduced crop yield and quality, and increased incidence of pests and diseases. MED-GOLD - Turning climate-related information into added value for traditional MEDiterranean Grape, OLive and Durum wheat food systems - is a research and innovation project funded by the European Union program Horizon 2020 and aims to support agricultural systems to become more competitive, resilient, and efficient in the face of climate change. The co-production of climate services in MED-GOLD brings together suppliers and users (as project partners) in the development of three service prototypes: grapes and wine in the Douro region in Portugal, olives and olive oil in the Andalusia region in Spain, and durum wheat and pasta in Italy. The services under development include short, medium and long term temperature and precipitation forecasts, bioclimatic indices, as well as simulations of olive pest emergence and olive productivity and phenological development and grain quality of durum wheat. These service prototypes are being tested and validated by their end-users, our industrial partners. In addition, the potential of these climate services to be applied to similar crops in other geographical areas as well as to other crops, such as coffee in Colombia, will also be presented Rodríguez et al.,2017; 2013; 2011; Gutierrez et al., 1998). The cumulative added value of MED-GOLD climate services will be also investigated and it will potentially range from enhancing agricultural decision making and management to supporting policy-making at the Mediterranean, European and global levels.

Farm level decision making: How effective are agromet advisory messages? Bharti Suthar, International Crops Research Institute for the Semi-Arid Tropics

India has one of the oldest climate services program that provides weather based advisory services to smallholder farmers using medium range weather forecasts issued by Indian Meteorological Department (IMD). The Agromet Advisory System (AAS) launched in 1971 is a comprehensive system that interprets and presents forecast information for practical use in planning and managing agricultural systems to enable farmers make better and informed decisions in conducting various farm operations. In a study conducted by the National Council of Applied Economic Research (NCAER), the economic benefit of this program was estimated to be about US$ 7.58 billion per year with a potential to rise to US$ 32 billion. This and other studies have also highlighted the need for improving the quality and relevance of these services by improving the content of the messages. The study reported here was undertaken to critically assess the relevance and usefulness of information provided through AAS and identify opportunities for further improvement. Aligned to a Monsoon Mission II project commissioned by IITM, we assessed advisories issued by All India Co-ordinated Research Project on Agro-meteorology (AICRPAM) for Parbhani, Maharashtra during the period 2016 to 2018. For this site, rainfall received during the kharif season (June to September) in all the three years is above normal. However, the year 2018 is characterized by early cessation of the rains with no rainfall during September and October months compared to about 500 mm in 2016 and 350 mm in 2017.

On an average, advisories issued during a year included about 1000 messages covering all major crops and operations. These messages were grouped into 41 categories based on the type of operation that the message was intended for and ranked them based on how sensitive the operation is to weather variability. From this a set of operations that are highly sensitive to weather were selected for evaluation. Since the messages are highly sensitive to weather conditions, the message was considered useful if the forecast is correct. Our assessment has indicated that more than 70% of the messages related to land preparation, sowing, fertilizer application, intercultural operations and harvesting were found to be useful since they were issued timely and the forecast on which they were based was true. For messages related to plant protection operations, only 43% of the total 775 messages were found to be useful. This is attributed to lack of well-defined criteria for issuing pest and disease warning and in ability to interpret effect of wind speed and relative humidity which have a significant influence on the occurrence and spread of the disease. The assessment identified several opportunities to further

69 Appendix 4: Abstracts strengthen the advisory system by including more location specific information and by improving the scientific rigor of the information provided.

How and why has Participatory Integrated Climate Services for Agriculture (PICSA) been successful in stimulating innovation and adaptation by small-scale farmers - Lessons from experience in Africa, Latin America, the Caribbean and South East Asia Peter Dorward, University of Reading, United Kingdom

Participatory Integrated Climate Services for Agriculture (PICSA) has been successfully used to enhance adaptive capacity of smallholder farmers in more than 20 countries. Evaluations have consistently reported that more than 80% of farmers that receive PICSA training and information have changed practices and behaviours as a direct result, and that this has led to improved livelihoods and wellbeing. PICSA is a participatory and farmer centric approach, enabling farmers to make decisions for their own individual farm situations, and at the same time has been successfully scaled out e.g.to approximately 125,000 farmers in Rwanda. This paper identifies lessons learnt from use of PICSA in Africa, Latin America, the Caribbean and South East Asia including how it can be tailored for use in different agricultural and social contexts, reasons for its success in supporting decision making and behaviour change, and implications for the design of practical climate services interventions and policy more widely.

Reliability of seasonal climate forecasts for use in agricultural decision making Sujatha Peethani, ICRISAT

In recent years, several meteorological agencies are providing seasonal climate forecasts (SCF) routinely. Unlike medium range forecasts, SCF provide information on whether the coming season will be wetter or drier than the normal. Since many farm decisions are made well before the start of the season without knowing how the season is going to be, there is a growing interest in using SCF as a basis for planning for the forthcoming season. However, the usefulness of SCF in planning depends on their reliability or skill. Traditionally, forecast reliability is assessed using a wide range of methods from simple statistics to more advanced scientific verification techniques. However, for a decision maker, reliability of the forecast depends on the outcome of the forecast based decision. It is also important to note that not all decisions require the same level of reliability. We present a simple method used to assess the usefulness of SCF from decision maker’s perspective.

The study used the downscaled hindcasts generated by Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM) using Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFS v2) model for eight locations in India for the period 1982 to 2017.The forecasts are classified as above or below normal depending on whether the projected rainfall exceeds a certain threshold amount or not. The threshold amount is based on the minimum amount of rainfall required to achieve a positive outcome from the decision taken. The forecast is then considered reliable if 80% or more predictions come true. The forecast skill was found to be low when the model output is compared directly with observed data. This is due to the systematic model biases in rainfall simulation, leading to over or under-estimation of the above or below normal seasons, respectively. At Parbhani, Maharashtra, the amount of rainfall forecasted for kharif season (June-September) is 67% higher compared to the station average of 772 mm which lead to over estimation of above normal seasons by more than 50%. Significant improvement in the predictions was observed when the forecast data was bias corrected. Of the seven methods tried for bias correction, linear correction method and standardization technique performed well for all locations. Using bias corrected downscaled hindcasts, the minimum amount of rainfall that can reliably be predicted with 80% or higher accuracy was estimated. This amount varied from less than 300 mm at Anantapur to more than 600 mm at Parbhani.

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These amounts indicate the type of seasons that can be predicted reliably and for what type of decisions they can be used. Based on the results, it is concluded that the bias corrected downscaled SCF have fairly good skill for use in farm level decision making.

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Sectoral Focus: Coastal Climate Services

Saleem Khan Peerzadi Rumana Hossain Benjamin Harrison Poonam Pillai

BASIEC: A coastal climate service framework for community-based adaptation to sea-level rise Saleem Khan, Department of Humanities and Social Sciences and Indo-German Centre for Sustainability, IITM, India

Climate change-induced sea-level rise poses serious threats to coastal regions across the world and the communities in the low-lying coastal regions are at high risk. Building capacities of coastal communities to adapt to sea-level rise are increasingly high priorities for low-lying coastal regions. Climate services are believed to be a powerful mechanism to build capacities of communities, particularly at the local level. It focuses on the connection between climate science and public demand for information and services. In this context, this chapter emphasizes the importance of community-based climate services that build the capacities of local communities to prepare, manage and adapt to rising sea-levels. This study has put forth three research questions such as (1) what services do the coastal communities require; (2) how these services need to be delivered; (3) what are all the roles of climate services that can help in building capacities of coastal communities and involve them in the community-based adaptation decision-making process? This study has adopted the methodology following the recommendations and guidelines of the UNFCCC, the Global Framework for Climate Services (GFCS) and Fifth Assessment Report of IPCC, on climate information and services. As a result, this study has introduced BASIEC (Building capacities for Adaptation to Sea-level rise through Information, Education and Communication for coastal communities), a coastal climate service framework for community-based adaptation to rising sea-levels. The framework emerges from theoretical and empirical knowledge of community-based climate services and offers a holistic approach for integrating information, communication and education through the lens of climate change and sea-level rise. Thus, it provides a systematic starting point and guidance for local level coastal climate policy planners, decision-makers, researchers, local communities and others who hold a stake on coastal climate services for community- based adaptation to changing climate in general and sea-level rise in particular.

Climate Information Services – A sustainable development pathway for transforming freshwater aquaculture systems in Bangladesh Peerzadi Rumana Hossain, WorldFish, Bangladesh

Bangladesh, having the world’s largest flooded wetland, is one the most suitable regions for aquaculture and fisheries in the world, with a high nutritional dependency on freshwater fish. Simultaneously, the country is a second most vulnerable region in Asia for climate change, variability and their impacts on fresh water aquaculture and fisheries. Given the extensive water resources and climate impacts context, fresh water aquaculture could benefit from timely, reliable and contextualized climate information and services (CIS) for managing climate risks and consequently reducing loss and damage. Twenty FGDs with three different groups of fish farmers (i.e., extensive, semi –intensive and intensive) and twenty key

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informant interviews from three value chain actors (i.e., Lead Fish Farmer, Hatchery Manager and Market Supplier) were conducted in Barisal, Khulna and Bagerhat particularly to explore the potential impacts of climate variability (such as temperature and rainfall) on pond water quality and physiology of fish species, affected aquaculture operations, climate sensitive management decisions and finally to recognize the prospective demand for CIS. Water quality, water quantity, fish physiology are considerably affected by temperature and rainfall variability. Identified climate sensitive aquaculture operations are pond preparation, fingerling stocking, feeding, applying input materials and harvesting. Also the study reveals fifteen climate sensitive management decisions to support a decision making approach. Extensive and semi-intensive fish farmers express interest to have CIS to adapt their management decisions while more intensive fish farmers and hatchery managers show strong interest. Consequently, tailored, context specific and user defined CIS is most likely a sustainable development pathway to cope with and enhance resilience to climate variability impacts on aquaculture operations.

From sea-level rise science to services in Bangladesh: Can sea-level projections help assess vulnerabilities, impacts and adaptation options for different coastal zones? Benjamin Harrison, Met Office, United Kingdom

Bangladesh is often considered to be one of the countries most vulnerable to climate change and sea- level rise. Coastal adaptation is required to deal with potential near and medium-term impacts from sea- level rise, because of the slow-response of the climate system to mitigation measures. In Bangladesh coastal management and adaptation practitioners require sea-level projections for different sections of coastline, to facilitate impact and vulnerability assessments. At these spatial-temporal scales both non- climate and climate drivers of sea-level rise need to be considered. An Interdisciplinary approach is required to combine, contextualise and communicate the sea-level and hydrological science, as coastal climate services. The UK Met Office and Bangladesh Institute of Water Modelling are working to develop climate services, that can inform adaptation decisions. We first review the status of coastal climate services in Bangladesh, describing the types of sea-level products and services available. Second, we describe the additional services and information requested by users working with the Institute of Water Modelling. We follow the methods developed for the 2018 UK Climate Projections (UKCP18), to generate new sea-level projections at tide gauge locations from different coastal zones. By comparing the projections with tide gauge records we assess the contributions from non-climate drivers of sea- level change at different coastal zones. We discuss the relative importance of local and non-local sources of uncertainty in the short to medium term. Finally, we use extended range projections out to 2300 to highlight limitations of the cost-benefit decision approaches favoured by some practitioners.

Strengthening Coastal Information Services in East Asia and Pacific Region Poonam Pillai, World Bank

Communities living in coastal and delta areas are amongst the most vulnerable to disasters and climate change. They are exposed to range of hazards such as storms, floods, coastal erosion and sea level rise. While large scale hydromet modernization efforts have focused on national level improvements in weather, water and climate services, more concerted efforts are needed to strengthen coastal information systems and services. This presentation will showcase experience from World Bank funded activities in the East Asia and Pacific Region (e.g. Myanmar, Vietnam) on efforts to strengthen marine and coastal climate services. Specific attention is given to the challenges facing coastal and delta communities and how access to services can be strengthened.