Challenges and Opportunities for Canada- Korea Cooperation

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Challenges and Opportunities for Canada- Korea Cooperation KOREA-CANADA FORUM 2018 제16차 한국-캐나다 포럼 결과 보고서 Strategic and Technological Transformation in the Making: Challenges and Opportunities for Canada- Korea Cooperation - 01 - KOREA-CANADA FORUM 2018 일시 2018년 12월 13-15일 (December 13-15, 2018) 장소 인터컨티넨탈 서울 코엑스 (Intercontinental Seoul COEX, Seoul, Korea) 공동주관 서울국제포럼 (The Seoul Forum for International Affairs, SFIA) The Centre for International Governance Innovation, CIGI 지원 한국국제교류재단 (The Korea Foundation, KF) - 02 - KOREA-CANADA FORUM 2018 목차 04 1. 종합 보고 Executive Summary 한글 Korean 영문 English 10 2. 세션별 요약 Session Summaries 11 Session 1: Strategic Transformation on the Korean Peninsula and Beyond Session 2: Middle-Power Diplomacy during International Transition: U.S.-China Fight for the Asia-Pacific Session 3: U.S.-China Trade War and its Effects on Canada and Korea Session 4: Demographic Change and Immigration Policies Session 5: Korea-Canada Cooperation in the Age of Technological Innovation Session 6: Gender Equality and Women’s Role in Business 26 3. 참석자 명단 List of Participants 30 4. 프로그램 Program - 03 - KOREA-CANADA FORUM 2018 Executive Summary 종합 보고 - 04 - KOREA-CANADA FORUM 2018 제16차 한국-캐나다 포럼은 양국의 학계, 정부, 연구기관, 산업계 등 다양한 배경의 전문가들이 모인 가운데 2018년 12월 서울에서 개최되었다. 총 여섯 개의 세션으로 구성된 포럼에서 참석자들은 각 부문 내 전략적, 기술적 협력의 기회를 마련하는데 초점을 맞추어 다양한 정책적 제언을 하였다. 첫 번째 세션에서는 한반도의 안보 상황을 다루었다. 남북 간 화해 국면과는 별개로 북한의 비핵화 의지에 대해서는 우려가 제기되고 있다. 핵심은 비핵화 이행 방식에 대한 북한과 미국 간 이견이다. 한 참석자는 현재의 한반도 상황을 미국, 그리고 러시아의 지원을 받는 중국 간의 게임에 빗대어 표현하기도 했다. 대부분의 참석자는 캐나다가 한반도뿐만이 아닌 아시아 태평양 지역에서의 역할을 확대해야 하며, 특히 다자주의 질서 유지를 위해 노력해야 한다는 의견에 동의했다. 인도주의적 영역에서 영향력이 큰 캐나다는 북한의 반인도 범죄 해결에도 도움이 될 수 있다. 두 번째 세션은 아시아 태평양 지역 내 미·중 경쟁이 치열해지는 가운데 중견국 외교의 역할과 잠재력에 대해 논의했다. 중국은 아시아 내 미국의 영향력 축소와 중국의 영향력 확대를 동시에 추진하고 있으며, 미국은 대중 적대 정책으로 대응하고 있다. 이에 따라 한국과 캐나다는 적극적인 협력을 통해 중견국 외교를 강화해야 한다는 의견이 있었다. 양국은 국제 안보 이해관계를 대표하는데 핵심적인 역할을 할 수 있기 때문에 아시아 태평양 지역에 외교의 중요성을 상기시킬 수 있으며, 자유주의 국제 질서를 유지 및 개혁할 의지가 있기 때문이다. 중견국 외교 제도화의 실제 사례인 MIKTA는 좋은 벤치마크가 될 수 있다. 세 번째 세션의 초점은 미·중 무역 전쟁의 함의였다. 분쟁 당사자인 미·중의 목적은 기술 진전이 가속화됨에 따라 발생하는 디지털 패권을 확보하기 위함이다. 이처럼 변화하는 세계무역체제에서 미국과 중국이 지속해서 선택을 강요하고 있기 때문에 캐나다와 한국 등 중견국들은 중요한 전환점에 있다. 무역 다각화가 시급한 시점이다. NAFTA(북미자유무역협정) 개정안인 USMCA(미국-멕시코-캐나다 협정)는 배타적 무역블록 형성의 중심에 있다. 회원국들이 중국과 무역 협정을 맺지 못하도록 하기 때문이다. 따라서 USMCA는 TPP 및 RCEP 협상에도 부정적인 영향을 끼치고 있다. 결과적으로, 다자주의의 반대 개념인 지역주의가 두드러지고 있다. 다자주의를 수호하고 개혁하려는 시도는 계속되어야 하지만, 가치와 방향성이 같은 국가 간의 무역블록 형성 또한 현재로서는 효과적인 대안일 수 있다. 네 번째 세션에서는 캐나다와 한국의 인구 변화와 이민정책을 논의했다. 특히, 성공적인 이민정책을 운영하고 있는 캐나다의 참석자들은 지속적인 저출생률로 인해 경제활동인구 감소를 겪고 있는 한국에 많은 조언을 했다. 캐나다는 이민과 다문화 정책을 저출산 및 인구 감소의 장기적인 해결책으로 삼고 있다. 한국의 노동인구 충당을 위한 단기적 - 05 - KOREA-CANADA FORUM 2018 해결책으로 캐나다 측의 전문가는 이미 한국에 터를 잡고 있는 이주 노동자들에게 이민의 기회를 높여줄 것을 제안하면서, 이에 가장 큰 걸림돌은 이민자들의 국내 적응과 문화적 동화일 것이라 지적했다. 캐나다는 이민자들을 자국에 동화시키는 데 있어 큰 역할을 한 정부 덕분에 광범위한 이민정책의 경제적 혜택을 누릴 수 있게 되었다. 한국 또한 비슷한 정부 프로그램들을 운영하지만, 다문화 수용을 정부의 우선 과제 중 하나로 삼는 결단력이 부족하다는 의견이 있었다. 현재 한국의 이민자 프로그램은 정착하고자 하는 이민자들을 교육하는 데에만 초점이 맞춰져 있기 때문에 이민정책의 혜택과 관련하여 자국민을 교육시키는 프로그램 또한 강화되어야 할 것이다. 캐나다의 전문가들은 이민자들이 자신의 목소리가 국가에 충분히 반영되고 있다고 느낄 때 이민정책으로 인한 경제 및 사회적 혜택이 비로소 극대화된다는 점을 지속적으로 강조했다. 다섯 번째 세션은 인공지능 등 제4차 산업혁명의 기술 혁신 속에서의 한국-캐나다 협력을 다루었다. 1950년대에 개발이 시작된 ‘사고 기계’의 개념에서 파생된 오늘날의 인공지능 기술은 심층 지도학습(managed deep learning)에서 자율학습 (unsupervised learning)으로 발전하고 있다. 그 와중에 개인정보 보호법에 대한 의견이 분분하다. 소비자들은 본인의 개인정보 사용처에 대한 충분한 고지에 따라 현명한 소비 결정을 내릴 수 있어야 하며, 그러기 위해서는 적절한 규제가 필요하다는 의견에 한국-캐나다 포럼의 참석자들은 대체로 동의했다. 개인정보 보호와 관련된 보편적인 국제 규범을 만드는 데에 캐나다와 한국을 포함한 중견국들이 좋은 중재자 역할을 할 수 있을 것이다. 또한, 참석자들은 인공지능 관련 정책과 규제의 토대를 마련해야 할 지금 한국과 캐나다가 결속하고 참여해야 한다고 의견을 모았다. 마지막 세션에서는 특히 고용시장에서의 양성평등에 관한 논의가 있었다. 발표자들은 한국과 캐나다 모두 직장 내 양성평등에 있어서 더딘 발전을 보인다고 평가했다. 캐나다는 여성의 노동시장 참여에 어느 정도 성과를 이뤘지만, 여전히 ‘새는 송수관’이라는 진로 이탈 현상이 지속되고 있다. 한국은 이보다 더 뒤처져 있으며, OECD의 2017년 유리천장지수의 여러 핵심 범주에서 최하위를 차지했다. 다른 한편으로는, 양성평등에 대한 전반적인 인식이 상당히 개선되었기 때문에 현상에 안주할 위험이 있다는 의견이 있었다. 현재의 추진력을 유지하고 대중의 인식 변화를 고착시키기 위해서는 정부의 적극적인 차별 철폐 조치가 결정적인 역할을 한다는 결론에 많은 참석자가 동의했다. - 06 - KOREA-CANADA FORUM 2018 The 16th Korea-Canada Forum, held in Seoul in December 2018, brought together a distinguished group of experts from the Korean and Canadian governments, academia, think tanks, and industry. The participants attempted to fathom shifts and changes in six subject areas and discern opportunities for bilateral strategic and technological cooperation. The first session dealt with the security situation on the Korean Peninsula. In the wake of inter-Korean reconciliation talks, concerns were raised about North Korea’s commitment to denuclearization. The central issue is North Korea’s chosen method of denuclearization, which is at odds with Korea and the United States’ desired method. One participant linked the situation on the Korean Peninsula to the “great game” between China and the United States, with Russia assisting China on the side. The participants agreed that Canada should offer to play a bigger role in the Korean Peninsula, particularly in leveraging multilateralism. Canada also can be impactful in the humanitarianism sphere, and help address North Korea’s crimes against humanity. The second session discussed the direction and potential of middle-power diplomacy amid the rise of an assertive China and resulting Sino-U.S. competition in the Asia-Pacific region. China is assuming an expanded role while trying to neutralize U.S. influence in Asia. In response, the United States is adopting confrontational policies against Beijing. Korea and Canada should cooperate and form a partnership to increase middle-power diplomacy. They could have a key presence in representing global security interests, bringing diplomacy into Asia-Pacific regional issues, and defending and reforming the international rules-based order. MIKTA is a benchmark example that highlights the effects of a concrete strategic initiative among middle powers. Implications of the Sino-U.S. trade war were the focus of the third session. The core aim of both sides is securing digital supremacy as technological development unfolds. Canada and Korea are at a critical juncture in the changing global trading system. They must adjust to cope with rising pressure by China and the United States to choose sides. To that end, diversification of trade partners is crucial going forward. The USMCA (United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement) – a revision of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) – is representative of America’s exclusionary efforts. It contains an article that seeks to steer Canada and Mexico away from trade agreements with China. Assuming it is approved by the US Congress, the USMCA puts an additional burden on the TPP (Trans Pacific Partnership) and on the RCEP (Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership) negotiations to find ways to diversify markets and to avoid choosing sides. The world is clearly seeing a rise of regionalism over multilateralism. While attempts at reforming the WTO and multilateral concepts should continue, regional trading blocs of like-minded countries and ‘coalitions of the willing’ may have merit at the moment. - 07 - KOREA-CANADA FORUM 2018 The fourth session examined demographic change and immigration policies in Canada and Korea. Special attention was placed on how Canada’s successful experience with immigration may assist Korea, where a steadily declining birth rate is threatening the future availability of workers. Canada’s long-term solution to the same problem is immigration and multiculturalism. A Canadian expert on immigration suggested an immediate solution to boost Korea’s working force, which would widen immigration opportunities to migrant workers. The main obstacle is cultural adjustment and naturalization. Canada has enjoyed economic benefits from its wide immigration policy thanks to effective government leadership in assimilating immigrants in a multicultural setting and working to retain public support. Korea has relevant programs, but lacks leadership in making multiculturalism a priority. The nation’s immigration-related programs are geared to indoctrinating migrants but more attention should be placed on educating Koreans about the benefits from immigration. Experts from Canada repeatedly emphasized and advised that benefits—both economic and social—of immigration policies are amplified when immigrants feel secure about their future place in the country. The fifth session dealt with Korea-Canada cooperation amid technological innovations—artificial intelligence (AI), in particular—of the Fourth Industrial Revolution. Derived from the 1950s’ dreams of thinking machines, today’s AI technology is shifting from managed deep learning to unsupervised learning. Arguments both for and against privacy regulations have intensified. Most participants in the Forum agreed that smart regulations are necessary for consumers to enjoy the benefits of technology based on informed decisions concerning impacts on their privacy. In this process, it was pointed out that middle powers such as Korea and Canada are well positioned to develop universal regulations for international jurisdictions.
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