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Norwegian Banks the Outlook Is Bright, Valuations Are Attractive

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Norwegian Banks the Outlook Is Bright, Valuations Are Attractive Norwegian banks The outlook is bright, valuations are attractive Thomas Svendsen, +47 24 01 50 03 31 January 2019 Banks outlook - Agenda • Stocks performance and changes in earnings expectations • Selected key value drivers outlook – Interest margins – Costs • Why are (international) investors getting scared from time to time? • Valuation and conclusion 2 Stocks performance and changes in expectations 3 International banks performance (-1Y) – Savings banks and DNB have kept up very well Equity certificates DNB US banks Nordic banks European banks 4 SOURCE: THOMPSON REUTERS • 5 1Y - Sandnes , Bank NorwegianBank Helgeland Swedbank DNB Bank Danske Møre NORDIC BANKS RELATIVE SHARE PRICE PERFORMANCE -1Y 120.00 110.00 100.00 90.00 80.00 70.00 60.00 50.00 Mar-18 Apr-18 Jun-18 Jul-18 Sep-18 Nov-18 Jan-19 Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 May-18 May-18 Jul-18 Aug-18 Sep-18 Oct-18 Nov-18 Dec-18 DNB ASA (Rebased) Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken AB (Rebased) Swedbank AB (Rebased) Nordea Bank Abp (Rebased) Svenska Handelsbanken AB (Rebased) Danske Bank A/S (Rebased) NORWEGIAN BANKS RELATIVE SHARE PRICE PERFORMANCE -1Y 130.00 REUTERS 120.00 110.00 100.00 90.00 80.00 SOURCE: THOMPSON THOMPSON SOURCE: 70.00 60.00 Feb-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 Apr-18 May-18 Jun-18 Jun-18 Jul-18 Aug-18 Aug-18 Sep-18 Oct-18 Oct-18 Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 May-18 Jun-18 Jul-18 Jul-18 Aug-18 Sep-18 Sep-18 Oct-18 Nov-18 Nov-18 Nov-18 Dec-18 Dec-18 Dec-18 Jan-19 Jan-19 DNB ASA (Rebased) Sparebank 1 SR Bank ASA (Rebased) Sparebank 1 SMN (Rebased) Sparebanken Vest (Rebased) Sparebanken More (Rebased) Sparebanken Ost (Rebased) Sparebank 1 Nord-Norge (Rebased) Sandnes Sparebank (Rebased) Helgeland Sparebank (Rebased) Sparebankenperformance price share relative banks and Norwegian Nordic Sor (Rebased) Norwegian Finans Holding ASA (Rebased) Sbanken ASA (Rebased) Nordic banks Consensus EPS revisions – A mixed picture Danske Bank, DKK DNB, NOK 20.0 27.0 18.0 25.0 16.0 23.0 14.0 21.0 12.0 19.0 10.0 17.0 8.0 Jan-16 Jul-16 Jan-17 Jul-17 Jan-18 Jul-18 Jan-16 Jul-16 Jan-17 Jul-17 Jan-18 Jul-18 2018E 2019E 2020E 2018E 2019E 2020E Nordea, EUR SEB, SEK 1.2 10.5 10.0 1.1 9.5 9.0 1.0 8.5 8.0 0.9 7.5 0.8 7.0 6.5 0.7 6.0 Jan-16 Jul-16 Jan-17 Jul-17 Jan-18 Jul-18 Jan-16 Jul-16 Jan-17 Jul-17 Jan-18 Jul-18 2018E 2019E 2020E 2018E 2019E 2020E Svenska Handelsbanken, SEK Swedbank, SEK 10.0 19.5 9.5 19.0 18.5 9.0 18.0 8.5 17.5 8.0 17.0 16.5 7.5 16.0 7.0 15.5 15.0 6.5 14.5 6.0 14.0 Jan-16 Jul-16 Jan-17 Jul-17 Jan-18 Jul-18 Jan-16 Jul-16 Jan-17 Jul-17 Jan-18 Jul-18 2018E 2019E 2020E 2018E 2019E 2020E 6 SOURCE: THOMPSON REUTERS Norwegian banks Consensus EPS revisions – A positive picture Sparebank 1 SR-bank, NOK Sparebank 1 Nord-Norge, NOK 11.0 8.0 10.0 7.5 7.0 9.0 6.5 8.0 6.0 7.0 5.5 6.0 5.0 5.0 4.5 4.0 4.0 3.5 3.0 31/01/2016 31/07/2016 31/01/2017 31/07/2017 31/01/2018 31/07/2018 3.0 31/01/2016 31/07/2016 31/01/2017 31/07/2017 31/01/2018 31/07/2018 2018E 2019E 2020E 2018E 2019E 2020E Sparebank 1 SMN, NOK Sparebanken Vest, NOK 11.0 7.0 10.0 6.5 9.0 6.0 8.0 5.5 7.0 5.0 6.0 5.0 4.5 4.0 4.0 31/01/2016 31/07/2016 31/01/2017 31/07/2017 31/01/2018 31/07/2018 31/01/2016 31/07/2016 31/01/2017 31/07/2017 31/01/2018 31/07/2018 2018E 2019E 2020E 2018E 2019E 2020E Sparebanken Møre, NOK Sparebanken Sør, NOK 35.0 12.0 30.0 11.0 25.0 10.0 9.0 20.0 8.0 15.0 7.0 10.0 6.0 5.0 5.0 0.0 31/01/2016 31/07/2016 31/01/2017 31/07/2017 31/01/2018 31/07/2018 4.0 31/01/2016 31/07/2016 31/01/2017 31/07/2017 31/01/2018 31/07/2018 2018E 2019E 2020E 2018E 2019E 2020E 7 SOURCE: THOMPSON REUTERS Shares performance and estimates revisions in summary: P/E multiples in mid-point of historical range • Forward looking P/E in the mid of the historical range • 6-7% dividend yield and 4% earnings growth should bode for 10-11% return • Plus, could get 10-15% multiple expansion over time on top of this 8 SOURCE: COMPANY DATA AND NORDEA ESTIMATES Key value driver outlook: Interest margins look overall stable 9 Norwegian banks long-term net interest margin picture: Has stabilised - Mortgage spreads tighter than in Sweden 5.00% Norway - Net interest margin 4.50% 4.00% 3.50% 3.00% 2.50% 2.00% Net interest margin interest Net 1.50% 1.00% Nord-Norge SMN SR-Bank Møre 2.5% Norwegian banks - household and corporate margins 2.00 Swedish gross mortgage margin - FSA definition (%) 1.80 2.0% 1.60 1.40 1.5% 1.20 1.00 Axis Axis Title 1.0% 0.80 0.5% 0.60 0.40 0.0% 0.20 0.00 Apr-14 Apr-15 Apr-16 Apr-17 Apr-18 Oct-14 Oct-15 Oct-16 Oct-17 Jun-14 Jun-15 Jun-16 Jun-17 Jun-18 Feb-14 Feb-15 Feb-16 Feb-17 Feb-18 Dec-13 Aug-14 Dec-14 Aug-15 Dec-15 Aug-16 Dec-16 Aug-17 Dec-17 Aug-18 Household margin SOURCE: COMPANY DATA AND NORDEA ESTIMATES 10 • More banks set to become SIFI: could create some capital uncertainty and support margins throughout 2019 Q3 2018 (proforma) capitalisation DNB Nord-Norge SMN Sør SR-Bank Vest CET 1 requirement ex.mngmnt buffer (adj. new Pillar 2) 15.3% 13.5% 13.9% 14.0% 13.7% 13.8% New SIFI buffer n.m. 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% Increased counter cyclical 0.35% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% New (proforma) CET1 requirement 15.65% 16.0% 16.4% 16.5% 16.2% 16.3% CET1 ratio Q3 2018 16.5% 14.7% 14.9% 14.8% 14.7% 15.0% Q3 2018 - new requirement bef. mngmnt buffer (- is shortfall) 0.85% -1.3% -1.5% -1.7% -1.5% -1.3% • Hope that removal of special Norwegian RWA floor will mitigate CET1 ratio requirement increase • Timing somewhat uncertain – What tangible equity ratio to run operations at meanwhile 11 SOURCE: COMPANY DATA, NORWEGIAN FSA AND NORDEA ESTIMATES Key value driver outlook: Costs in 2019 - A reason for concern? 12 Costs could disappoint amid optimistic forecasts – Example DNB • DNB’s management has done an excellent job to improve the bank’s operational efficiency • Optimism has reached new heights: Consensus foresees a 2019 cost/income ratio of 39% and an all-time-low 38% in 2020, down from 41% in 2018E • Meanwhile, the essential staff reductions have come to a halt 13 SOURCE: NORDEA ESTIMATES DNB: Low-hanging fruit likely taken out 250 15,000 FTEs, Baltics and Vipps added back Branches in Norway 14,000 200 13,000 150 12,000 11,000 100 10,000 50 9,000 8,000 0 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018E 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018E FTEs, Baltics and Vipps added back Branches in Norway 2% FTEs y/y growth, Baltics and Vipps adde back 70.0 % Cost / income ratio 65.0 % 0% 60.0 % Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 13 13 13 13 14 14 14 14 15 15 15 15 16 16 16 16 17 17 17 17 18 18 18 55.0 % -2% 50.0 % 45.0 % -4% 40.0 % -6% 35.0 % 30.0 % -8% 25.0 % 20.0 % -10% 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018E Nord-Norge SMN SR-Bank Møre -12% Vest Sparebanken Øst DNB FTEs y/y growth, Baltics and Vipps added back 14 SOURCE: COMPANY DATA AND NORDEA ESTIMATES DNB: Optimistic assumptions for costs 28,000 55% DNB - Cost /inome ratio expectations DNB - costs and revenues expectations 50% 60,000 48% 48% 50% 47% 26,000 43% 45% 42% 42% 42% 41% 55,000 24,000 40% 40% 40% 40% 41% 39% 22,000 38% 50,000 NOKm 35% NOKm C/I ratio 20,000 30% 45,000 25% 18,000 20% 40,000 16,000 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018E 2019E 2020E 2016 2017 2018E 2019E 2020E Cost / income ratio consensus Cost / income ratio adj, Nordea estimate Revenues, consensus Costs, consensus Costs and revenues expectations inflation adjusted 26,000 60,000 25,000 24,000 55,000 23,000 22,000 50,000 NOKm NOKm 21,000 45,000 20,000 19,000 40,000 18,000 2016 2017 2018E 2019E 2020E Revenues, consensus Costs, consensus Costs inflation adj., 2018E as base Costs, assuming constant C/I ratio amid business expansion 15 SOURCE: COMPANY DATA AND NORDEA ESTIMATES DNB and Norwegian banks: Severe staff inflationary pressure 9.0% Wage growth Norway 1,400 DNB - Adj saff cost per employee 11% 8.0% 1,200 9% 7.0% 1,000 7% 6.0% 800 5% 5.0% 600 y/y growth 4.0% NOK thousand 3% 400 3.0% 200 1% Wage growth, annual growth, Wage 2.0% 0 -1% 1.0% 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 H118 0.0% Adj.
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