VOLU E 10 U BER 4 FALL 1977

1 of Hi b-Leve Wastes THE COVER: Floyd Culler, as a By F. L. CULLER colleague recently said, is the man who knows the whole fission story, from the beginning to the final disposal. He has indeed been in on it 11 from the first, and has had an active hand in almost every detail of the From Consumption to Conservation technology of the fuel cycle. We are By CAROLYN KRAUSE privileged, then, to have the text of his talk as presented to the Salzburg meeting of the International Atomic Energy Agency last May on high­ 18 Competition between Fo si and level waste management, beginning on page 1. By HOWARD I. BOWERS and JERRY G. DELENE

Editor 27 ip of ERDA's Forests BARBARA LYON By BARBARA LYON Staff Writer CAROLYN KRAUSE 3 emistry at ORNL Consulting Editor A Short History ALEX ZUCKER By STANLEY CANTOR

Publication Staff; Graphic Design/ Bill Clark; Technical Editing/ 4 Jeff McKenna; Typography/ Edna How Fast Can We Safely Burn Coal? Whittington; Makeup/ Mary East; Reproduction/ Bill West By CAROLYN KRAUSE

The Review is published quarterly and distributed to employees and ITS others associated with the Oak Ridge DE National Laboratory. The editorial Books 9 office is in Building 4500-North, Take a Number 16 Oak Ridge National Laboratory, P.O. Box X, Oak Ridge, Tennessee Lab Anecdote 24 37830. Telephone: (615) 483-8611, Achievement 39 Extension 3-6900 (ITS 850-6900). Awards and Appointments 48 OAK RIDGE NATIONAL LABORA

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Management of High-Level Wastes By F. L. CULLER

HE ULTIMATE DISPOSAL of high-level ciency. Major national programs are now being fission products and alpha-emitting wastes is designed to accomplish the needed work for the one of the unresolved, i.e., undemonstrated, technical demonstration of both waste manage­ technical problems of the nuclear fuel cycle. Sir ment and ultimate isolation. John Hill, in Tuesday's Round Table, stated that the technology exists for the concentration and But these technical solutions do not provide fixation of these wastes, but that we have not yet the full set of answers necessary for the decided how, when, or where they may be stored international acceptance of radioactive waste for the many centuries required for decay to isolation. We must pay much more attention to naturally occurring levels. Responsible govern­ public acceptability and the licensing process. mental agencies in the United States and in all This task is of primary importance and is not yet other countries recognize this technical defi- being adequately covered.

FALL 1977 "... it is now time to raise the semitechnical aspects of waste disposal to the same leuel of Import 1nce that we haue assigned to the technology '

During this conference I have set down 2. suggested the protocols that will permit licen­ general impressions of what has been said and sing of waste facilities and methods; nor written about wastes. Briefly, I suggest that we 3. yet engaged in the analysis of what control and have audit procedures are necessary to assure 1. shown that, although it has yet to be fully adherence to acceptable procedures for short­ demonstrated, the technology exists to reduce and long-term sequestering of radioactive the short-and long-term risks of waste manage­ materials. ment and disposal to acceptable levels; Thus, I am rather comfortable about the state of 2. tacitly agreed that since waste disposal costs technology, but more than vaguely discontented are relatively small fractions of the cost of about the equally important problems associated nuclear generated electricity, it is economically with licensing and control that are so essential to practical to employ the safest approaches; public acceptance. I suggest that it is now time to raise the 3. implicitly agreed that no net profit will be made semitechnical aspects of waste disposal to the from wastes; rather, waste management and same level of importance that we have assigned to ultimate disposal is a tax upon electricity and the technology. other products of nuclear fission; 4. implicitly observed that final responsibility for wastes will rest with national governments, which will take responsibility for their long­ Wastes generated in the fuel cycle for fission term safe disposition; and reactors using plutonium recycle differ somewhat from those of other reactors such as natural­ 5. approached but not clarified the international uranium-fueled, high-temperature gas-cooled, and aspect of the waste problem: criteria and thorium-cycle reactors. However, they require the standards for judging safety and failure mode same management and disposal techniques. analysis that specifies fail-safe systems must be Fuel cycle wastes generated by one gigawatt­ approved internationally. year of electricity and conditioned and packaged We have not for transport and disposal are shown in Table 1. Wastes containing long-lived alpha-emitting 1. as member states, given a clear signal to the heavy elements can be considered separately from IAEA to proceed with the broad category of those free of such emitters. This distinction is work to control wastes; important because these elements and their decay

2 OAK RIDGE NATIONAL LABORATORY Review Table 1. Fuel cycle wastes from production of 1000 MWyr of electricity daughters remain radioactive much longer than do all but a few fission products. The tailings from Thermal Volume Activitya Number of uranium ore milling are a third distinct category. Waste power8 (m3) (MCi) shipments (kW) They contain significant amounts of natural uranium decay daughters, but the radionuclide Spent fuel assemblies 13.9 172 970 11 concentration is less than that of other alpha­ Transuranium bearing wastes. High-level 3.1 170 960 2 (solidified) Chief among the alpha-bearing or trans­ Cladding hulls 2.7 2.0 10 2 uranium wastes are the high-level wastes from Intermediate-level 140 0.012 0.057 66 reprocessing of spent fuels-the first-cycle solvent solid Low-level solid 480 0.049 0.04 17 extraction waste, sometimes mixed with other process streams-which contain, besides the Nontransuranium Noble gases O.Q1 0.25 0.37 0.4 heavy elements, 99% of the nonvolatile fission 6 Iodine 0.05 1 X 10- 0.2 products. Other types of transuranium wastes are Carbon-14 2 X 10- s 4 the spent-fuel structural materials (cladding) and Fission products 0.35 0.018 7 X 10- and tritium various liquid and other solid wastes that arise (solidified) from mixed uranium-plutonium oxide fuel fabrica­ Low-level solid 2400 0.002 0.007 180 tion and reprocessing. The nontransuranium 4 Ore tai lings 42,000 5 X 10- 0.011 wastes are concentrates of ssKr, 129!, 14C, and

a At the time of waste generation. tritium from reprocessing, and miscellaneous low­ level liquid and solid wastes from all fuel cycle operations.

Table 2. Projected world nuclear capacity (GWe) From the projected world nuclear capacity through 2000 A.D. (Table 2) we can estimate fuel­ United States plus cycle waste generation for the same period (Table foreign CMEAa Calendar year Total non-CMEAa countries 3) in a nuclear economy based on these assump­ countries tions: Only LWRs will be used. Reprocessing of spent fuels will begin in 1982, the backlog of 1975 70 9 79 1980 165 17 102 unreprocessed fuel to be worked off by 1996. 1985 384 46 430 Plutonium is to be recycled beginning in 1983. 1990 698 106 804 2000 1540 395 1935

0 aCouncil for Mutual Economic Assistance (communist-bloc

nations!. To m1mmize the types of waste to be handled, blending of compatible waste streams is desirable for subsequent treatment or for Table 3 World projection of fuel cycle wastes incorporation with high-level wastes. These Accumulated world wastes include solid residues from clarification Category Calendar inventory of solutions, dissolver off-gas scrubber so­ year Volume Activity 3 3 lutions, degraded solvents, aqueous solutions (10 m ) (MCi) from solvent cleanup, process equipment de­ Transuranium wastes contamination solutions, and laundry wastes. High-level wastes (solidified) 1990 6 56,000 Leached fuel cladding and partially decon­ 2000 28 200,000 taminated process equipment are other ex­ Clad 1990 5 1,500 2000 24 5,500 amples. Methods of liquid waste treatment Intermediate-level and 1990 100 45 include evaporation, reverse osmosis, precipita­ low-level wastes 2000 470 200 tion, filtration, and ion exchange. Gases are Nontransuranium wastes volatiles 1990 410 cleaned with scrubbers and filters. Treated 2000 4 1,800 liquid wastes that are not incorporated into Intermediate-level and low-level 1990 2,400 3 high-level wastes may be sorbed on such ma­ 2000 7,900 10 wastes terials as vermiculite and clays, then im­ Ore tailings 1990 350,000 4 2000 950,000 11 mobilized by mixing with concrete, bitumen, or ureaformaldehyde resin.

FALL 1977 3 Opening session of the Inter­ national Con­ ference on Nuclear Power and its Fuel Cycle in the Fest­ spielhaus in Salz­ burg, Austria. At the podium is the President of the Federal Republic of Austria, Dr. Rudolf Kirchschlager.

H" s Many processes are under develop­ many; and continuous glass bead vitrifi­ ment for converting high-level liquid wastes to tion (PAMELA) being developed jointly by calcines or glasses for temporary storage or Eurochemic and West Germany. Europe is disposaL In the United States, fluidized bed probably ahead of the United States in de­ calcination with or without subsequent vitrifi­ veloping methods for converting liquid wastes, cation, spray calcination with in-can melting, particularly in the hot demonstration of fix­ and continuous Joule-heated ceramic melting ation of high-level wastes. are ready for final demonstration with radio­ active wastes prior to commercialization. The metal matrix, sintered glass-ceramic, super­ Partitioning long-lived plutonium and other calcine, multiple-barrier form, and inorganic transuranics is being actively studied. Reducing ion exchange products are final waste forms the quantity of plutonium decreases the isolation that are less fully developed. time required for the residual fission-product­ The most advanced European processes bearing waste. Figures 1 and 2 show what might are the French continuous vitrification pro­ be accomplished if these separations can be made. cess, for which a demonstration plant is being Values for naturally occurring radioactive sub­ built at Marcoule, and the British borosilicate stances are shown for comparison. The toxicity glass (HARVEST) process, for which a fully index (defined as the volume of water needed to active pilot plant is under construction at dilute a unit volume of waste to maximum Windscale. Less fully developed European pro­ permissible concentrations for unrestricted use) of cesses include aluminum phosphate ceramic­ conventional solidified high-level waste drops type granule matrix formation (LOTES), being after about 10 5 years to about that of pitchblende studied at Eurochemic; spray calcination boro­ and remains near that level (Fig. 1). If 99.99% of silicate glass (VERA) and the fission product the plutonium, 99.9% of uranium and curium, and solidification (FIPS) for the thorium (HTR) 95% of the neptunium in the spent fuel are fuel cycle, both being developed in West Ger- removed, the index after 103 years is decreased to

4 OAK RIDGE NATIONAL LABORATORY Review "Immobilization of residues by incorporation into glasses or cements is practical."

a level well within the range of widely distri­ added iron and/ or copper, to form a lower-melting buted, naturally occurring materials (Fig. 2). eutectic. The molten zirconium may then be cast Before this concept can become a realistic into ingots which can be embedded in concrete for waste management option, however, separation of final disposal. Untreated or treated hulls can be the five actinides from the fission products on a matricized with concrete or glass to decrease routine plant operation basis must be excep­ possible future leaching. tionally sharp; the separation processes should Low-level transuranium wastes are created not complicate management of the other fission during fuel production, fuel analysis, and equip­ product effluents. After the actinides have been ment maintenance, including quantities of con­ separated, we must be able to dispose of them. taminated solid wastes (plastic, rubber, cellulose, Within present or near-future technology, this HEPA filters, glass, and metal). High-temperature means burning them to fission products in (1500-1600 °C) incineration of combustible reactors, which can be done without penalty to wastes with added fluxes to produce a less reactor performance; but there are effects on other leachable slag instead of ashes, and cryogenic parts of the fuel cycle (reactor operation, fabrica­ crushing (-140°C) are being studied. tion, and transportation) which have not been Combustible transuranium wastes may be fully explored. Partitioning is not regarded as a burned in special incinerators, and the ashes precondition to geologic or seabed disposal, but it may be leached in hot HN03-HF to recover may very well represent a desirable future im­ most of the transuranics. Further decontami­ provement over initial practices. nation proceeds by fusion with suitable salts followed by leaching. Methods are being studied for removing transuranics from surfaces by ultrasonic energy, hot-water ball-milling, electro­ Next to high-level wastes from the first solvent polishing, and high-pressure steam and water extraction cycle, leached fuel hulls and alpha­ spraying. Immobilization of residues by in­ active wastes from fuel reprocessing and mixed corporation into glasses or cements is practical. uranium-plutonium oxide fuel fabrication facilities present the most severe problems in radioactive waste management. Zirconium hulls l rani m Mill Ta· · s present an additional hazard because of their pyrophoricity. The treatment of uranium ore by solvent Several processes are in use or are being extraction is very selective for uranium, and developed for treating and disposing of hulls and nearly all the other radioactive heavy elements other fuel assembly parts. In Europe, hulls are report to the waste along with 5 or 10% of the compacted and temporarily stored under water in uranium not recovered. The bulk of the concrete silos. Processes are being developed to radioactivity in the ore tailings results from the melt the zirconium hulls in silicoalumina or decay of 230Th, a daughter of 238U with a half-life graphite-lined electric furnaces, with or without of 83,000 years. The 230'fh decays to 1600-year

FALL 1977 5 22sRa and then to 3.8-day 222Rn and its chain of daughters. Ore currently being mined and milled con­ tains about 0.2% UaOs; it is anticipated that the ore processed in the U.S. from 1975 to 2000 will average near 0.1% U30 s. An average solid waste ~ for that period will be 1.3 metric tons per kilogram 0 0 of uranium recovered and will contain about 80% ., 108 ;;; 0 of the radioactivity originally present in the ore. ): The volume, area, and radioactivity of tailings expected to be generated in the U.S. by the year 2000 are given in Table 4 for no plutonium or uranium recycle, uranium recycle only, and recycle of both. As presently assessed, ore tailings will be covered with 60 em of earth topped by rock -.,0 E or vegetation against erosion by wind and water ::> 0 whenever a mill closes down. ~ 6 ~ 10 ~~~~--~--~--~~~~~--~+---~ Table 4. Characteristics of U .S. ore tailings Clz through 2000 AD • >- 1- No uranium Uranium Uranium and ~ recycle plut onium X "'· or plutonium 0 recycle only recycle 1-

6 6 6 "" Uranium recovered 1.2 X 10 1.1 X 10 0 .9 X 10 (tonnes) 3 10 10 10 Volume of tailings (m ) 8 X 10 7 X 10 6 X 10 Area of tailings (ha) 6700 5900 5100 Radioact ivitY ( MCi) Initial 4 .7 4.2 3.6 104 L_~..-..L..J...d!::L.J..1.J..L_ __...... JL...L..LJ...JU.U--~-'-LLU..UU--~--l 1 0 ,000 years decay 4 .3 3.9 3.3 103 ws 100,000 years decay 3.7 3.3 2.8 TIME (years) 1 ,000,000 years decay 0.4 0.3 0 .3 Radon release after 0.42 0.38 0 .33 stabil ization• Fig. 1. Toxicity index of solidified high-level waste (MCi/year) without secondary processing for actinide removal. • so-em earth cover, 4% moisture.

') and concentrating tritium is based on voloxidation, pyrochemical processing, isotopic Adequate commercial methods are available enrichment, and aqueous recycle techniques. for removing krypton and iodine from off-gas of Processes under consideration for removing 14C02 spent nuclear fuel dissolution, and methods for from head-end off-gas streams are based on removing tritium and C02 are being developed. At caustic scrubbing, sorption on molecular sieves, the Idaho Chemical Processing Plant krypton is and absorption in fluorocarbons. removed by cryogenic treatment of the dissolver off-gas stream and packaged in gas cylinders under pressure. An equally effective but not yet demonstrated method is based on cryogenic High level fission-product wastes in glass or absorption in fluorocarbons. A process is under high-fired ceramics, and others that contain development for storing the recovered krypton in a appreciable amounts of actinide elements, must be sodalite-zeolite matrix at normal atmospheric isolated for hundreds of thousands of years or, pressure. Iodine can be removed from dissolver off­ essentially, forever, assuming that partitioning gases by caustic scrubbing, chemisorption by and high-efficiency recycle are not used. Proposed metal-loaded zeolites, Hg(NOa)z scrubbing, or disposal methods include isolation in continental scrubbing with concentrated HN03 (the Iodox geologic formations, isolation on or under the process). Development of processes for separating seabed, nuclear transmutation of long-lived

6 OAK RIDGE NATIONAL LABORATORY Review Fig. 2. Toxicity index of solidified high·level waste after removal of 95% of Np, 99.9% of 1, U, Am, Cm, and 99.99% of Pu. MINERAL PITCHBLENDE ( 70~o U)

unweathered limestone, particularly in arid ~ 0 climates. ~ ;g 1o 7 f------Salt deposits have very low permeability and 3: high plasticity. Shales have both these character­ istics plus generally good ion exchange character­ istics but contain water, which makes them not very useful for heat-generating wastes. Unjointed and unfaulted crystalline rocks and deeply buried limestones in arid regions have low permeability and generally high integrity, but they do not really decouple from seismic activity. Decoupling is a "'E property which salt beds or domes possess to a ::> 5 0 10 ~...... --~- ~.,._.,--;-...... ~,...... ~...._,~,___.,_....':"1 > greater degree than most formations studied.

X PL UTON IU M A fail-safe, successful waste repository re­ w 0 e AND DAUGHTERS quires a thorough evaluation of the wastes to be z / ~~; ~ I CIUM+CURIUM stored and an understanding of the chemical, >- 4 ~DAUGHTERS thermal, mechanical, and radiation interactions I- 10 u between the wastes and the geologic medium. In X NEPTUN IUM AND the near-term, repositories will be designed for 0 DAUGHTERS I- retrieval of waste, until it is agreed that the URAN IU M AND geologic system is safe for very long-term storage. DAUGHTERS If and when such conclusions are warranted, the 4 5 repository could be filled and sealed. Table 5 10 10 indicates the types of geologic formations being TI ME (year s ) evaluated and the nations where such work is in progress; however, the principal programs are elements, and extraterrestrial ejection by rocket. Of these, emplacement in continental geologic Table 5. Types of geologic formations being formations using conventional mining techniques evaluated for waste disposal is believed to be the only concept that can be Evaporites Shale Country and Limestone Crystall ine successfully demonstrated in the near future, and Salt Anhydrite rock current work in both Europe and North America is cl ay strongly oriented in that direction. Seabed Austria disposal may be the best near-term alternative, Belgium X because both transmutation and extraterrestrial ( Eurochemic) disposal are dependent on the development of Canada X X Denmark X difficult chemical separations processes Fra nce X X mentioned earlier. GDR The geologic properties that make a par­ (East Germa ny) FRG X ticular formation a good candidate for a (West Germa ny) radioactive waste repository include, among India others, absence of ground water, low perme­ Ital y X ability, freedom from joints and faults, good ion Netherlands X exchange capability, and freedom from seismic Spa in X X X X activity. Rock types that seem acceptable include Sweden X evaporite beds (salt, potash, anhydrite, gypsum), Switzerland X fine-grained sedimentary rocks (shale, mudstone), U.S.S.R . high-integrity igneous and metamorphic rocks Uni t ed Kingdom X X Un ited States X X X X (granite, andesite, basalt, gneiss), and

FALL 1977 7 under way in West Germany and the United (and probably plutonium) will be expanded States. The storage of low- and intermediate-level since fluoride ions must be present in HN03 wastes at the Asse salt mine in West Germany has used to dissolve thorium oxide. Studies been practiced since 1967. A site over a different relating to the effects (and safe handling) of salt formation in Germany is being sought for a fluorides in waste fixation processes are being fuel reprocessing plant and waste facility for the initiated. mid-1980s. In this proposed facility, low- and intermediate-level wastes will be stored uncanned 3. Partitioning of plutonium will continue. (but either mixed with concrete or as beads or pellets) in solution cavities, and high-level wastes 4. The planned production of many cylinders of will be emplaced in a mechanically mined cavity. glassed reactor waste at Hanford will con­ In the United States, geologic studies of salt tinue, but only a few containers of waste will be deposits along the Gulf Coast and the Delaware produced in the near-term. and Paradox basins are in progress preparatory to the installation and operation of two pilot repositories in the mid-1980s. Preliminary evalua­ 5. The pilot repository in the New Mexico salt tion of various shale, limestone, and crystalline beds, for the retention of solidified fission igneous rock formations has also been started. product wastes generated for military pur­ When suitable nonsalt formations have been poses, will continue on schedule. A future found, more detailed geologic evaluation will be option for nonmilitary fixed wastes will be made, aimed at later repositories. Selection of sites retained in the design. in salt and other formations where limited­ capacity initial repositories are installed will lead 6. There will be expanded investigation of the use to expanded full-scale operations when safety and of granite and/ or shale for the storage of stability are confirmed. The United States spent, unreprocessed fuel elements at the proposes to have two pilot repositories for reactor Nevada test site. fuels available for trial use by about 1985, plus one in the deep salt beds of New Mexico for fixed 7. Surface storage facilities for spent fuel military wastes. elements will be designed, and utility storage The recently announced changes in the pool capacity may be more efficiently utilized direction of the U.S. nuclear program, motivated and possibly expanded. by laudable concern for the weapon proliferation potential of the uranium-plutonium cycle, could 8. The broad program of the qualification of have effects on the program for waste manage­ potential repositories in salt, various crystal­ ment and disposal in the United States. We have line rocks, shales, limestone, and other already heard at this meeting a review in broad geologic formations being pursued under the terms of the changes in emphasis which are direction of the Office of Waste Isolation in evolving for the fuel cycle as a whole. It appears Oak Ridge will continue. For each candidate that the U.S. programs in support of waste formation, the potential for retrievable storage management and disposal will not be signifi­ of spent fuel elements is now being studied, in cantly affected financially, only changed in addition to storage of fixed high-level and emphasis. alpha wastes from reprocessing and fuel The following statements about the U.S. recycle. program are based on what I have been able to learn during this formative period: 9. Tentatively at least, two additional pilot repositories (other than New Mexico salt) are planned for initial start-up in 1985. One of 1. Process development for isolation and dis­ these probably will be in interior salt domes in posal of iodine, krypton, tritium, and carbon the Mississippi-Louisiana coastal salt areas. dioxide will continue, since they apply equally to all fuel cycles. 10. Analysis and experimental work in seabed disposal will continue, as well as work in other 2. Process development for thorium-uranium potential disposal systems. I

8 OAK RIDGE NATIONAL LABORATORY Review the quantum theoretical principles to determine details of atomic structure and explain the physical and chemical properties, and hence the periodic system of the elements. Volume 4 deals entirely with the latter purpose, although it is clear that both the theoretical development and the application of theory proceeded nearly simulta­ neously. The time period covered in Volume 4, 1920- 1924, was extremely productive for Bohr in that the Institute for Theoretical Physics in Copen­ hagen was started and the development of BOOKS quantum theory had progressed to a point of subtle understanding and was being applied to a description of x-ray line structure and the periodic system of the elements. Also during this same period, in 1922, Bohr received the Nobel Prize for Physics for his work on atomic structure and spectra. Bohr relied heavily during this period on x-ray line structure in his classification of electron orbitals for the elements ofthe periodic system, as Moseley had earlier shown a direct relationship between x-ray frequency and atomic number. Bohr ((Niels Bohr Collected Works, Volume 4: had correctly predicted that the rare earth The Periodic System (19201 1924)" elements ended at lutetium (element 71) with the edited by J. Rud Nielsen, North-Holland complete filling of the inner fourth major quantum shell, and the then unknown element with atomic Publishing Company, Amsterdam (1977), number 72, hafnium, would have different valency 765 pages, $120.50. Reviewed by Curtis E. and hence chemistry from that of the rare earth Bemis, Jr. group. .tie was thus qmte perplexed by the announcement of Dauviller and Urbain in 1922 of the discovery of celtium, element 72, by its x-ray THIS BOOK, VOLUME 4 of the Niels Bohr spectrum (the La and L il lines) in a mixture of 1 1 Collected Works, is the most recent edition in an 8- two rare earth elements, lutetium (71) and volume series originally conceived and initiated ytterbium (70). Rutherford had publicly accepted, by Leon Rosenfeld. The complete series is a without any reservation, the claim of Dauviller monumental undertaking and provides a compre­ and Urbain, but Bohr persisted because element 72 hensive, critical review of the works of Niels Bohr in the rare earth series would pose serious arranged in chronological order. Each volume difficulty for his electron classif.ca tion scheme. He contains all published and some unpublished wrote to Dirk Coster, a young Dutch physicist then scientific manuscripts for the time period con­ working with Manne Siegbahn on x-ray line sidered (complete with English translations for structure in Stockholm, to ask his opinion of the original works in Danish!) and also contains reliability of the experimental work of Dauviller selected scientific correspondence covering the and Urbain. Coster replied in detail to Bohr on same time period. An introductory section, written July 16, 1922, and indicated that Siegbahn had by the editor, J. Rud Nielsen, serves as a very met with Dauviller in Paris and had examined the convenient documentary chronology for each plates containing the evidence for element 72. volume. Siegbahn, somewhat sarcastically, had autho­ The researches ofNiels Bohr during the period rized Coster to say, "IfDauviller claims that there 1918-1924 had a dual purpose: The first was the was 0.01 % (a hundredth of a percent) of the element development of a consistent and adequate quan­ 72 present in his sample, then one must grant him tum theory for atoms, and the second was to apply that the plates he took do not contradict this- but

FALL 1977 .9 they confirm it just as little." Coster evidently I found a few errors regarding dates and convinced Bohr not to attach much significance to places of letters. For example (page 31), Coster's the work of Dauviller and Urbain. In late 1922, letter to Bohr was not written from Utrecht on July Coster went from Stockholm to Bohr's Institute in 15, 1922, but rather from the Hague on July 16, Copenhagen, where Bohr had installed apparatus 1922. for x-ray spectroscopy. Together with Bohr's old Hungarian chemist friend, George de Hevesy, they The documentation for this book was obtained finally succeeded in discovering element 72 in from the Niels Bohr Archive and the Archives for various zirconium minerals as predicted. Bohr the History of Quantum Physics. A complete list of announced to the world on December 11, 1922, at the scientific manuscripts dealing with the the end of his Nobel Lecture, the discovery by correspondence principle and the interpretation of Coster and Hevesy of element 72 in Copenhagen, the periodic system, 67 total for the period 1918- thus providing an important test oftheory. Coster 1924, is given at the end of the volume. and Hevesy later proposed the name hafnium for For those who desire an insider's look at the their element after the Latin name for Copen­ clevelopment of the theoretical basis for the hagen, Hafnia. periodic system of elements, I can highly I found the element 72 story as outlined above, recommend Volume 4 of the Niels Bohr Collected and thoroughly documented in this book, quite Works. Perusal of this book from your library is entertaining, as the parallels with the discoveries also recommended, since the cost appears beyond of the very heaviest elements, or lack ofthem, are the means of most of us. I obvious.

Staff Quote:

"Considering the pocket-sized country that Norway really is-less than 4 million people-one cannot but be somewhat impressed by their quite advanced status in science and technology. A striking feature is that Norway seems to have a coherent science policy. The budgets are firm and known, well before the start of the fiscal year. This eliminates much of the anxiety and feeling of uncertainty that is easy to spot in our national laboratories. "The most conspicuous difference-it is also an unfair comparison-is that scientists and engineers in Norway seem to have much more influence on the policy in science and technology than is the case in the United States, probably because of the fact that the 'social status' or 'respectability' of scientists and engineers is much higher in Scandinavia than here. "-Jorulf Brynestad, discussing his foreign assignment to the University in Trondheim-The Norwegian Institute of Technology in Trondheim, Norway, in late 1975.

10 OAK RIDGE NATIONAL LABORATORY Review Eric Hirst began doing energy conservation studies in 1971, several years before the nation became acutely aware of the need to cut back on energy demand. A native of New York City with a Ph.D. in mechanical engineering from Stanford University, Hirst came to ORNL in 1970 to work in the AEC's Environmental Quality Program. While studying the problem of waste heat from power plants , he realized that an important key to ameliorating environmental impact could be reduction in the growth of energy demand . In 1971 , he was transferred to the National Science Foundation 's Environmental Program for which he pursued energy conservation studies. An environmentalist and energy conservation advocate, Hirst helped organize two series of Laboratory-wide seminars on environmental research and on energy problems. Articles of his on energy conservation have appeared in Science and Saturday Review as well as in technical journals. While in the ORNL-NSF program under Jack Gibbons and Roger Carlsmith, Hirst examined the use of energy in such areas as food and transportation. Hirst left ORNL for Washington in February 1974 to become director of the Office of Transportation Research in the Federal Energy Administration . When he returned to ORNL in June 1975, he joined the Energy Division to investigate energy use in buildings , especially in the residential sector. Use From Consumption to Conservation

By CAROLYN KRAUSE

N THE THIRD QUARTER of this century, the stoves with self-cleaning ovens, and food freezers, increasing numbers of Americans consumed but also the major energy-hungry appliances like energy as if it were as limitless as the comforts of frost-free refrigerators, furnaces, water heaters, home which they pursued. Whereas the American and air conditioners which now account for 20%of population grew from 152 million in 1950 to 214 the nation's energy consumption. As the number million in 1975- an annual increase of 1.4%- the of households increased by almost 30 million number of American households grew2%peryear, during this 25-year period and as we purchased from 44 million residential units to 71 million. We appliances to feed on what most of us thought was filled our homes with appliances-not only an endless energy supply, our appetite for glamorous devices such as electric mixers, residential energy grew an average of 3.6% per televisions, stereos, clothes dryers, electric tools, year. • FALL 1977 11 DEMOGRAPHICS

HOUSING STOCKS, NEW CONSTRUCTION

RESIDENTIAl ECONOMICS ENERGY USE SIMUlATION

ENERGY USE/ INITIAL COST RELATIONSHIPS FOR EQUIPMENT AND STRUCTURES

TECHNOlOGIES DETAILED FUEL USES FUEL EXPENDITURES CAPITAL COST: EQUIPMENT This is the level of detail provided by the simulation STRUCTURES model for fuel uses, equipment ownership, new equip­ Here is a schematic of the ORNL residential energy use ment installations, fuel costs, equipment costs, and structural thermal integrity costs. model. It was not until1972-73, around the time ofthe today's 214 million to 262 million in 2000. The Arab oil embargo and the ensuing shortages in trend in fuel prices has been changing even more heating oil and gasoline, that most of us began to dramatically-in fact, it has reversed. In terms of seriously examine whether we were indeed real dollars (correcting for inflation), the average becoming profligate in using energy that no longer price of electricity declined 25% from 1950 to 1972, seemed cheap and abundant. If the Golden Era of at which time prices began to rise. During the same Abundant Energy was over, could we significantly period, thecostofgas dropped3o/o and oil prices fell reduce energy use in our homes without altering 6%. Predictions from ERDA and the Federal our lifestyle drastically? Or did the future hold an Energy Administration (FEA) used in Hirst's unrestrained but temporary growth in energy use computer model show that between now and the which would suddenly end with millions of jobless year 2000 the cost of electricity will soar 25%, gas Americans sitting at home freezing in the dark? prices will spiral 91 o/o, and oil prices will increase Using a computermodelforacrystal ball, Eric 36%. Because of dwindling oil and gas supplies, it Hirst of ORNL's Energy Division, Janet Carney of is anticipated that electricity's share of residential the Computer Sciences Division, and Robert energy use will rise from 44% in 1975 to 70% in 2000 Hoskins, formerly of the Energy Division, looked (it was 18% in 1950). at the prospect for future residential energy The key to reduced growth in energy con­ growth through the end ofthe century and found it sumption appears to be rising fuel prices. not as bleak as some expected. According to their According to Hirst, even if no major federal energy projections, based on historical patterns and other conservation programs are implemented, residen­ data, residential energy use will grow more slowly tial energy use will grow at a rate less than 2% per in 1976-2000 than it did during the 1950-75 period. year-President Carter's goal-because of rising The reasons: slower population growth, higher fuel prices. Hirst also finds that the average and rising fuel prices, and what Hirst calls annual growth rate for energy consumption could "approaching saturation for major household drop as low as 1.2% if the conservation programs energy uses." proposed by President Carter are enacted into law. p "c-IP< These proposed conservation programs, as well as less stringent approaches recently ap­ Computer projections show that the U.S. proved by Congress [in the Energy Policy and population, notwithstanding its annual 1.4% Conservation Act (EPCA) and the Energy Con­ increase between 1950 and 1975, will rise by only servation and Production Act (ECPA)], focus on 0.8% per year in the next quarter century-from improving the technical efficiencies of major home

12 OAK RIDGE NATIONAL LABORATORY Review usage factors that reflect household behavior. The model also calculates annual fuel expenditures equipment costs, and capital costs for improvin~ thermal integrity of new and existing structures. Hirst and his colleagues assumed that there are no drastic lifestyle changes and that homeowners respond in the future (to rising fuel prices, etc.) in the same way as they have in the past. Also projected is that the number of households will grow 1.9% per year, from 74 million now to 114 million residential units in 2000, and that the average house size will remain about the same as . ' ~ ''J . before- about 1500 sq ft. Hirst speculates that ·'-:\ \ \ . house size will not change significantly, despite .. ·. ; ,~~~ )!/ ~ trends toward higher housing prices and reduced family size, because ofthe offsetting projected rise Thermostat up in summer in personal income. Using the model, Hirst evaluated the effective­ appliances and structures (for example, making ness of implementing the Energy Policy and more energy-efficient air conditioners, refriger­ Conservation Act, in which the Federal Energy ators, and water heaters for better insulated Administration is authorized to set targets for homes). voluntary improvement of appliance efficiencies, In his analysis of the effects of these various and the Energy Conservation and Production Act conservation programs on energy growth rates, in which the Department of Housing and Urba~ Hirst anticipates an "approaching saturation for Development is authorized to develop thermal major household energy uses." That is, he foresees standards fornewconstruction within three years. no additional high-energy-consuming end uses He also evaluated assorted programs to retrofit beyond the eight major ones he has identified: poorly insulated houses as well as stronger space heating, water heating, refrigeration, food conservation programs that have been proposed. freezing, cooking, air conditioning, lighting, plus Most recently, he studied the Carter Administra- others (clothes dryers, TVs, etc.). One energy expert, Hirst acknowledges, criticized this as­ sumption and argued that, in the age of industrial pollution, there may some day be a large market for home air filtration systems.

In the past two years, Hirst and his colleagues have been developing and applying detailed engineering-economic models that simulate house­ hold energy use at the national level for eight end u~es, each using one of four fuels (electricity, gas, 01l, and other fuels such as coal), placed in three housing types (single-family houses, apartments, and mobile homes). Each of these 96 fuel-use components is calculated for each year of the simulation as functions of (1) stocks of occupied housing units and new construction; (2) equipment ownership by fuel and end use; (3) thermal integrity of housing units-that is, how effectively these units retain heat in the winter and shut out heat in the summer; (4) average unit energy requirements for each type of equipment; and (5) Thermostat down in winter

FALL 1977 13 Projections of residential energy use with and without federal conservation programs 3 5,-----.----,-----,-----.----~~---.

30 e TOTAL I> ELECTRICITY 0 GAS D OIL

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GAS

5 OIL

oL-----L---~L---~----~----~----~ Turn out Lights 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 tion's conservation proposals m the National 4. The Government would provide increased Energy Plan. funds-up to $200 million in both FY 1979 and FY 1980- to help low-income people weatherize their homes. 5. The Department of Agriculture would Under the Carter plan, the current voluntary continue a rural home conservation program in program to reduce energy use by at least 20% cooperation with rural electric cooperatives, through redesign of home appliances would be providing loans through the Farmers Home replaced by mandatory minimum standards for Administration. 1980. In the area of improving existing structures, President Carter also asked for legislation proposed legislation is aimed at inducing home­ that would direct the Department of Housing and owners and builders to install ceiling insulation, Urban Development to develop thermal standards weatherstrip doors and windows, caulk cracks, for new construction in two years (instead of three, install clock thermostats, and modify furnaces. as called for by the Energy Policy and Con­ The new federal plan is designed to bring 90% of all servation Act so that they can be implemented by residences up to minimum federal standards by 1980. The standards-which would govern the 1985. Among the provisions of the program are: extent to which new houses need weather­ stripping, storm doors, double windowpanes, and 1. Homeowners would be entitled to a tax other insulating materials- are likely to be credit of 25% of the first $800 and 15% of the next stricter under the new proposal. $1400 spent on approved conservation measures. 2. The states would direct the regulated utilities to assist homeowners in obtaining loans, If the Carter energy conservation program is materials, and labor so they can retrofit their enacted into law, Hirst calculates that American poorly insulated homes. consumers, by the year 2000, will pay $29 billion in 3. The Government would make it easier for extra capital costs (insulating materials, more homeowners to obtain residential energy con­ efficient appliances, etc.) but will pay $56 billion servation loans through the Federal Home Loan less in fuel bills. Thus, the net savings in fuel costs Mortgage Corporation and the Federal National would total $27 billion. This is about the same as Mortgage Association. the savings that would result from full implemen-

14 OAK RIDGE NATIONAL LABORATORY Review meeting the 1980 target. Such an improvement in refrigerator performance would increase the consumer's purchase price by about $10 (in 1975 dollars). The annual savings in electricity bills of $20 (at the assumed 1980 electricity price) repays this higher initial price in six months. The FEA high target for gas water heaters requires a reduction in energy use of 26%. The agency's analysis of water heater designs shows that this target can be met by adding 7.6 em of urethane foam to the water heater jacket, insulating the distribution pipe, reducing the pilot rate, and reducing air flow through the flue. These changes would increase the water heater purchase price by about $40. With a resulting annual reduction in gas bills of$16, this investment yields a 2- to 3-year payback period. Despite rising fuel costs, energy use is not expected to claim a disproportionate share of personal income, largely because of projected increases in real per capita income from $5900 in 1975 to $10,600 in 2000. According to Hirst's computer runs, the energy-related expenses in the year 2000 as a percentage of personal income would be 3% without federal conservation pro­ grams (but with rising fuel prices), and only 2.7% if the Carter program went into effect. Save hot water In 1976, residential energy use was 16.3 QBtu (QBtu, or 1 quad, equals 10 15 British Thermal tation of current federal programs calling for Units), or 17.2 EJ [1 EJ (exajoule) = 101 J (joules)]. appliance efficiency standards, thermal stan­ If the Carter program were put into effect, energy dards for new construction, and retrofitting poorly use would grow to 21.6 QBtu (22.8 EJ) in 2000, an insulated homes and buildings. But more energy average annual growth rate of 1.2%, only one-third would be conserved under the Carter program. of the 3.6% historical annual growth rate in the In examining the national energy and 1950-75 period. If the American people wished to economic implications of adopting various pro­ achieve zero energy growth, Hirst's model shows posed sets of targets for achieving energy that it would be possible (if there were no market !'!fficiency in appliances, Hirst and Hoskins imperfections) by coupling fully implemented analyzed what design changes are needed to federal programs with large increases in fuel increase the energy efficiency of refrigerators and prices. water heaters and what the capital and operating By investigating various energy-use scenar­ costs of these redesigned appliances would be. ios, Hirst determined the efficacy of implementing Their findings show how individual consumers combined federal conservation programs, in­ could benefit financially from stricter appliance­ cluding those proposed April 20 by President efficiency standards. Carter. These programs could have a dramatic FEA's high target requires a reduction in impact on reduction of energy growth in the refrigerator energy use of 33%. Hirst and Hoskins residential sector. Energy conservation achieved found that this goal can be met by increasing the as a result of higher fuel prices and improved insulation thickness of the refrigerator walls, technical efficiencies in home appliances and removing the fan motor from the refrigerated area, building structures is a two-sided coin that would adding an antisweat heater switch, and in­ not only buy us time to develop clean alternative creasing the condenser surface area. This com­ energy sources without drastically altering life­ bination represents only one possible design for styles, but would also save consumers a considerable amount of money. 1

FALL 1977 15 BY V. R. R. UPPULURI

THE FIVE STAR GENERAL­ IS IT A MY ? Similarly, we need initially four pieces to reach level 2. Given the initial arrangement Consider a checkerboard with an infinite shown in Fig. 2a, first D jumps over C (C is number of squares. Suppose we have a removed and D goes to level1), then A jumps horizontal barrier in the middle. Initially, one over B (B is removed) , and then AjumpsoverD can lay pieces on the lower half of the board. By and A reaches level 2. the following rule of jumps, pieces can appear We need initially only eight pieces to reach on the upper half of the board: If two pieces are level 3. Given the initial arrangement shown in next to each other followed by an empty Fig. 3a, firstC jumps overF (Cis at level1 ), then square, then one piece can jump to the empty D jumps over E, D jumps over C (and D is at square and occupy it, and the piece jumped level 2) , H jumps over G, A jumps over B, A over is removed from the board. Only jumps over H, and finally A jumps over D and horizontal and vertical jumps are allowed; that reaches level 3. is, no diagonal jumps are permitted. When Now, how about the smallest number of pieces appear on the upper half of the board, pieces needed initially to reach level 4? the same rules apply. Looking at the table, onewould liketoventurea Let us designate the first row on the top of the guess to be 16. barrier as level1 and the second rowonthetop of the barrier as level 2, and so on. We are It turns out to be a wrong guess. At least 20 interested in the smallest number of pieces we pieces are needed before an arrangement on in itially need to arrange on the bottom half of the lower half of the board can be found to the board so that we can reach a specified level reach level 4. on the upper half of the board. The next surprise concerns level 5. It turns In Figs. 1a and 1 b, it is easy to see that we out that there is no initial arrangement of any need initially only two pieces to reach level 1. number of pieces on the lower half of the board, The piece designated by A can jump over B so that level 5 can be reached. A mathematical (and B is removed from the board) and appear proof of this finding is attributed to John H. on level 1. Conway at the University of Cambridge.

16 OAK RIDGE NATIONAL LABORATORY Review I ' ' I ' ' ' LEVEL LEVEL 2 ~~~ ---W-++- ~~~ LEVEL ~:::~:: : LEVEL , ---tiAtl

--- :::W::: --- ' ---

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LEVEL 3---··':'------··:'. ------·· '': ------·· ''' --- LEVEL 2 A ------LEVEL 1 D D D :::=P$1:=::: :::~ :::=l=J:P=::: -::~:::

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-- ~- ~- ~ -:- -:--1- ~ --1f--t-+-if-+-t-+---T -t- L- r--"1-- LEVEL 4 I I I I 1 1 I I : : I --r- t -,- -:- ""1- ~- -:-- - r- -,-- 1- -1-- LEVEL 3 1 I I I I 1 t I I I I I I __ .J_-t--•--~--•--t--,-- -~--r-r-~-- LEVEL 2 I 1 I I I 1 I I I I 1 I - - L _ 1__ ~ _ L- +- - • - + - - ..J - + - .&- - l. -- I I I 1 I 1 I I I I LEVEL I I I I I I 8

Fig. 3a

FALL 1977 17 Since his arrival at ORNL 10 years ago, Howard Bowers has committed his efforts to the technical and economic assessment of the leading candidates for energy generation. The Laboratory initiated these studies in the early 1960s, at the instigation of Jim Lane , and its program today is considered a continuing responsibility to ERDA , and indirectly to the Nuclear Regulatory Commission, to update the cost estimates of energy systems as the parameters shift with the political and economic winds. Bowers, r., a mechanical engineering graduate from Iowa State, was engaged in reactor design at Los Alamos for 10 years before joining ORNL's Reactor Division, now Engineering Technology. Jerry Delene has spent the greater part of his career at ORNL since 1959 in technical design for the gas-cooled reactor programs and nuclear desalination. Since 1974, he has been involved in fuel resource and cost analyses for current and advanced energy concepts. Delene holds an M.S. degree in nuclear science from the University of Michigan.

Competition betw en Fo 1 ueled Power Plan s By HOWARD I. BOWERS and JERRY G. DELENE

E HAVE BEEN involved for the past at a lower cost than comparable nuclear plants. several years in technical and economic However, this electricity must be transmitted long evaluations of generating electricity from various distances over high-voltage transmission lines for types of power plants. In this paper we set forth to use in the more densely populated and in­ estimate economic competitiveness of base-load dustrialized parts of the country. There is also light-water reactor (LWR) plants and coal-fired objection from the population of these western plants in the year 1987. This is the earliest date states to serving as generation centers for other that an L WR plant can be brought into commercial parts of the country. We also give estimates of operation if a utility company starts planning for a generating electricity by burning oil; however, it is new plant today. The plant is assumed to be extremely unlikely that utilities will be permitted located in the eastern part of the United States far to burn oil for base-load generation in the from the western low-sulfur coal fields. It has been future. shown by others that mine-mouth plants located Studies and evaluations of the economics of in Wyoming and Montana can generate electricity LWR and coal-fired power plants have been

18 OAK RIDGE NATIONAL LABORATORY Review carried out for several years by the Engineering placed into commercial operation and permitted to Technology Division for use by the Energy be included in the utility rate base. Research and Development Administration in The information regarding capital costs of long-range planning activities. Results of these power plants was acquired through direct contact studies have also been used by the Nuclear with both the electric utility industry and United Regulatory Commission in cost-benefit studies for Engineers & Constructors, Inc. (UE&C), with nuclear plants undergoing licensing, by the whom ERDA and NRC hold contracts. The ORNL Federal Energy Administration, by the Federal studies involve analyses of historical cost data Power Commission, and by the electric utility and trends, historical equipment, labor and industry. materials requirements and trends, safety and The estimation of total electric generating environmental requirements and trends, con­ costs at the power plant bus bar (i.e., exclusive of struction schedules and lead time requirements, transmission and distribution to the consumer) and computer code development. The UE&C involves four major areas: capital investment contracts provide for the development of detailed costs, nonfuel operating and maintenance (O&M) investment cost studies for reference power plants costs, fuel costs, and power plant performance. We based on wide experience in the design and will discuss each of these four areas separately and construction of power plants for the electric utility then put the component costs together to produce industry. total estimated generating costs in 1987. The information so gathered has been applied to a computer code, CONCEPT, to arrive at ( investment cost estimates as a function of plant Capital costs are usually separated into five type, unit size, number of units, location, and time. major categories: direct construction cost, indirect This CONCEPT code is now in its fourth version construction cost, contingency allowance, allow­ and has gained wide acceptance in the electric ance for escalation during construction, and utility industry. Approximately 100 copies of the allowance for the cost of borrowing funds during code have been distributed to electric utility construction. The direct construction cost is made companies, manufacturers, oil companies, coal up of the cost of land, buildings and structures, producers, universities, architect-engineers, con­ nuclear steam supply system, boilers, steam sultants, construction contractors, national labo­ turbines and generators, mechanical and electri­ ratories, and government agencies. Participants cal equipment, and piping, wiring, and labor in the studies include B. H. Fitzgerald, I. T. Dudley, required to produce an operating power plant. The C. R Hudson II, and M. L. Myers of the indirect construction cost includes engineering Engineering Technology Division; and R J. design and analysis, safety and environmental Barnard, R C. DeLozier, L. D. Reynolds, and B. E. licensing, construction management, quality as­ Srite of the Computer Sciences Division. surance, and miscellaneous taxes and overhead. We recently completed estimates of capital The contingency allowance is expected to cover investment costs for large base-loaded electric normal estimating error, occasional overtime, and power plants for commercial operation in 1987 for minor changes in scope of project. Within this the eastern United States. LWR plants are narrow definition, a contingency allowance of 10 estimated to cost about $1200/ kW(e); coal-fired to 15% of the direct and indirect costs is reasonable. plants with limestone scrubbers for flue gas In some cases, contingency allowance has been desulfurization (FGD), about $1000/ kWe; coal­ defined to cover major scope changes due to fired plants not requiring scrubbers and burn­ unknown environmental and safety regulatory ing low-sulfur, low-quality western coal, about requirements and severe inflation. In this broader $900/ kW(e); and oil-fired plants burning low­ sense, a contingency allowance of 20 to 30% is sulfur oil, about $650/ kW (e). We found that the reasonable. The allowance for escalation during direct construction cost in terms of 1977 dollars is construction accounts for increases in costs due to only about a third of the total cost of each type of inflation from the time the plant cost estimate is plant; the addition of the indirect construction cost made to the time the plant is placed in commercial increases the 1977 dollar estimate to about a half of operation. The allowance for borrowing funds the total. The effect of inflation and the cost of during construction accounts for the use of money borrowing money effectively double the cost of during the construction of the plant before it is each type of plant at commercial operation. We

FALL 1977 19 Fuel cost for base load electric generation, based on a Estimates of 1987 capital investment costs for large 1987 startup, showing a 15-year levelized average, and electric power plants. assuming 5% per year inflation.

60

c:::J FDC - ALLOWANCE FOR FUNDS DURING CONSTRUCTION ~ EDC- ALLOWANCE FOR ESCALATION DURING CONSTRUCTION c:::::J CA - CONTINGENCY ALLOWANCE 50 ~ ICC - INDIRECT CONSTRUCTION COST POST -1 987 INFLATION c:::::J DCC - DIRECT CONSTRUCTION COST

INFLATION 1977-1987 1000 ~ 40 .<:: ~ ~ FUEL COST IN 1977 (dollars) BOO ] 30 tii 0 i"" u ~ 600 ...J UJ ] :::J 20 0 u.. :!0 .... 400 "'0 u 10 200

0 LW R COAL COAL OIL LW R COAL COAL HIGH SUL FUR LOW SULFUR OIL HIGH Btu LOW Btu HI GH SULFUR LOW SULFUR HIGH Btu LOW Btu assume construction costs escalate at a rate of 7%/year and that the interest rate for construction and the costs oflimestone and sludge disposal are money is 9%/year. We also found that the included for coal-fired plants equipped with FGD estimated direct construction cost of a coal plant systems. The costs of amortizing the capital burning low-sulfur, low-quality western coal is investment, property taxes, property insurance, only about $50/ kW(e) less than that of the coal­ and federal and state income taxes are usually fired plant equipped with scrubbers. The usually included in the annual fixed charges on the capital quoted cost for limestone scrubbers is about investment. $100/ kW(e) in 1977 dollars. However, plants The information required to generate O&M burning low-quality western coal require larger cost estimates has been developed by M. L. Myers furnaces for combustion, larger electrostatic through direct contact with electric utility com­ precipitators for particle removal from the flue panies and through analysis of FPC operating gas, and an approximately 50% increase in coal data. This information has been utilized by L. C. and ash handling capacity. Most of the low-sulfur Fuller in another computer code, OMCST, to western coals have a high moisture content and generate O&M cost estimates as a function of therefore a low heating value compared with plant type, unit size, number of units, and time. eastern coals. Recently completed estimates of O&M costs for 1987 were separated into two categories: (1) a fixed component which is incurred regardless of the operation of the power plant, the major part of O&M costs include all the costs (except fuel) of which is the operating and maintenance staff, and keeping the plant operating once it goes into (2) a variable component which is a function of commercial operation, including the following plant operation. The major variable component is general categories: operating and maintenance cost of limestone and sludge disposal for coal-fired staff, maintenance materials, supplies and ex­ plants requiring FGD systems. Fixed O&M cost penses, and general and administrative overhead components for 1987 are estimated to be about $12 costs. In addition, the costs of liability insurance per kilowatt (electrical) per year for LWR plants and operating fees are included for nuclear plants, and for coal-fired plants not requiring scrubbers,

20 OAK RIDGE NATIONAL LABORATORY Review Electric generation by source for the past 10 years. Market price of uranium over the past 10 years. 1000 40

800

.t:: 0 "' 3: M ::l 30 ""c: 0 ~ ., c: £ 600 ::l 0 z c. 0 8. a:~ w z ~ 400 !::? ~ 20 a: 1- a: u 0.. w 1- ...J w w ><: a: 200

FALL 1977 21 In the case of fossil fuels, the price of the basic faction, because its low Btu content makes long­ fuel commodity translates directly in to electric distance transportation uneconomical. power cost. This relationship is not true with Estimated typical current fuel costs for base­ nuclear power. The nuclear fuel cost is composed of load oil-fired power generation are about 19 several component costs. Besides ore purchase, mills/ kWhr(e). Eastern high-sulfur coal fuel costs there are conversion to uranium hexafluoride, fuel are about 9 mills/ kWhr(e), whereas the fuel costs enrichment, fuel element fabrication, and the costs for western low-sulfur coal vary from about 3.5 associated with fuel after it is removed from the mills/ kWhr(e) in the mountain states to 10 to 12 reactor. It takes about 4 to 5 years from the time of mills/ k Whr(e) or more the farther one moves east uranium purchase until the fuel's economic life is and beyond the Mississippi River. Current nuclear over. This time span produces significant carrying fuel costs are estimated to be about 3.6 mills/ or inventory costs on unamortized fuel invest­ kWhr(e). This figure is based on $12/ lb for ment which are not usually found with fossil fuel uranium ore, $4/ kg for con version, $70/ SWU for costs. The relatively long fuel life and procurement enrichment, $108/ kg for fabrication, and $100/ kg lead times produce a delay period between for permanent storage and/ or disposal of the spent commodity price rises and corresponding electric fuel. power cost increases. Also, because most uranium The increase in fuel costs between 1977 and for reactors is contracted for several years in 1987, when the reference power plants are to come advance of use, the current sharp rises in uranium on line, has two components. One is the "constant price will not show up in actual nuclear fuel cost dollar" increase that is tied to such factors as increases for several years. depletion, increasing safety and environmental There are various regional differences in the considerations, etc.; the other component is the price of fossil fuels. The national price range of oil general overall inflation rate. In our analysis, we for base-load power generation is about 20% of assume a general inflation rate of 5% per year average. The competitive delivered price of coal during this period, a slightly optimistic rate in depends on several factors: in addition to mining view of recent history. It is, however, consistent costs, there are grade of coal, transportation cost to with the 8% interest on long-term debt and the 12% the point of use, and sulfur content. Strip (or return on stockholder equity assumed in the surface) mining of coal is the cheapest mining analysis. method, whereas underground mining is the most In constant 1977 dollars, the price of uranium expensive. ore is assumed to increase from the current Coal is found throughout the United States in average $12/ lb to $40/ lb (thecurrentspotprice) by various grades of heat, ash, and sulfur content. 1985. After 1985, it was assumed to increase by 2% Most of the coal now being mined comes from the per year due to resource depletion. The enrichment eastem and central portions of the United States. price was estimated to escalate in constant dollar This coal, for the most part, is bituminous with terms to $100/ SWU by 1985 and to remain heat values of 11,000 to 13,000 Btu/ lb and is of constant thereafter. There is speculation that the high sulfur content. There is some low-sulfur coal new enrichment technologies (centrifuge, laser) in these areas, but it is generally metallurgical could even lower enrichment prices toward the end (coking) coal, and its supply is tied up in long-term of the century if not sooner. All other nuclear fuel contracts. Of the approximately 640 million tons of cost components are assumed to remain constant coal produced in the United States in 1975, 530 in terms of 1977 dollars. million tons came from the eastern and central Oil and coal prices, in 1977 dollars, are portions. Subbituminous coal is found in great assumed to escalate by 2%/year between 1977 and abundance in the northern Great Plains and 1987. No real cost escalation is assumed after 1987. mountain regions. It is of low sulfur content and The oil price increase is due to OPEC pressure and has heat values of about 8500 Btu/ lb. Future coal the phasing out of old oil price restrictions. Real expansion will come mainly from these reserves. cost increases in coal will come from environ­ Large lignite beds are found in western North and mental restrictions and mine safety regulations. South Dakota and in Texas. It is low in sulfur but In constant 1977 dollars, the fuel costs has a high moisture content and has a low heat estimated for 1987 are 7 mills/kWhr(e) for nuclear, value (about 6000 Btu/ lb). It may be used for local 23 mills/ kWhr(e) for oil, and 11 and 15 mills/ ­ power generation or for gasification or lique- kWhr(e) for high- and low-sulfur coal respectively.

22 OAK RIDGE NATIONAL LABORATORY Review The nuclear fuel cost is levelized over the first 15 mills/ kWhr(e) for nuclear, 61 mills/ kWhr(e) for years of operation so that the assumed 2%/year high-sulfur coal, 62 mills/ kWhr(e) for low-sulfur real escalation in uranium price is accounted for. coal, and 70 mills/ kWhr(e) for oil. These estimates When inflation is included, average (levelized) fuel compare with 1976 residential electric rates of20 to costs during the first 15 years of operation are 25 mills/ k Whr( e) in the Tennessee Valley and 30 to estimated to be 15 mills/ kWhr(e) for nuclear, 48 40 mills/ kWhr(e) in the Chicago area: The mills/ kWhr(e) for oil, 24 mills/ kWhr(e) for high­ residential rates include transmission and distri­ sulfur coal, and 32 mills/ kWhr(e) for low-sulfur bution costs, whereas our estimates do not. coal. These are the reference fuel costs for the Although the estimated cost difference be­ generating cost comparison. tween coal and nuclear generation may seem small, the 7 to 8 mills/ kWhr(e) difference translates to almost $40 million/ year for each R. L. Simard has performed a statistical 1000-MW(e) plant and to about $90/ year for a analysis of power plant performance based on consumer using 1000 kWhr(e)/ month. data collected by the FEA in its power plant The power generated using low-sulfur coal is productivity improvement program. This study estimated here to cost 8 mills/ kWhr(e) more than includes analysis of availability factors, capacity nuclear; however, this differential will evaporate factors, and forced outage rates for the years 1965 as the plant is moved west. Low-sulfur coal should through 1975. Performance factors were developed be the economic choice inland, where the costs of and statistically analyzed as a function of fuel transportation from Wyoming and Montana coal types and unit size for each full calendar year of fields are much lower. However, since this operation, for cumulative averages, and for analysis was completed, we see strong indications specific years of operation. Here, we discuss only that all coal-fired plants, including those burning the yearly average performance factors for specific low-sulfur coal, will be required to have FGD years of operation of all nuclear units, coal-fired systems, which will change their competitive units, and oil-fired units 600 MW(e) and larger. position vis-a-vis high-sulfur coal and nuclear Although there are wide year-to-year variations in fuels. the data, we make the following general obser­ Even if oil is permitted to be burned for base­ vations: all yearly average plant availability load power generation, we estimate that the cost factors are about 70%, all yearly average forced will restrain its deployment except in isolated outage rates are in the range of 10 to 20%, yearly areas where both nuclear and coal-fired plants are average capacity factors for nuclear and coal-fired restricted. The savings in oil by burning coal or plants are 55 to 60% (reflecting base-load oper­ nuclear fuels is about 8 million barrels per year for ation), and yearly average capacity factors for oil­ each 1000-MW(e) plant. fired plants are about 50% (reflecting load The conclusions to be reached from this following operation). None of the coal-fired plants analysis are that coal and nuclear base-load in this data set are equipped with FGD systems. It generation will remain mutually competitive in is generally accepted in the industry that FGD the future and that the price of electricity will rise systems will decrease coal-fired plant availability significantly. and capacity by 5 to 10%, and will increase forced There will undoubtedly continue to be wide­ outages. However, we do not assess this penalty in spread interest in the cost difference between coal­ this analysis. fired and nuclear power generation, a complex problem about which a variety of opinions has been voiced. The projection or prediction of costs The total electric generating cost at the power for electric generating systems coming on line in plant bus bar is the sum of the capital, O&M, and the future involves the combination of many fuel costs. The capital cost of the plant was uncertain factors and assumptions. It is also converted to mills/ kWhr(e) using an annual fixed affected by the basic personality and bias of the charge of 16% and an average plant capacity predictor, whether he is pro-nuclear or anti­ factor of 60%. The levelized average generating nuclear, or some degree in between. In the present costs for the four generating options during the uncertain environment, both political and eco­ first 15 years of operation, assuming an inflation nomic, cost projections should be made with great rate of 5LJ1o per year, are estimated to be 54 caution. &

FALL 1977 23 Lab Anecdote

E virl-t MAX bREdiq By Ellison Taylor

whiff of perfume in a Max grew up in Germany crowded room, or of wet and was educated there oak leaves underfoot; a few between the wars, when, in the bars of Stormy Weather (or physical sciences, it was a your choice), preferably coming branch, at least, of Camelot. across a stony lake on a Like Camelot, it contained the in vited there for dinner because summer night-any one of seeds of its own destruction, but Polanyi has spent a year or two these can suddenly take us that is not my story. Max and I in Karlsruhe, where Max's back entire to another time. In talked about Arthur and father, Georg Bredig, is the practice of science, as well, Gawaine and such, and even professor of physical emotion has a part. How much more about the lesser knights chemistry. Max has come to of what we accomplish reflects and the apprentices, not about Berlin to study for the Ph.D. in the joy and strength and Modred, or Merlin, or Haber's institute. He is a perseverance that come from Guinevere. greenhorn from Karlsruhe, and belonging, at least in our That's probably enough of naturally shy in addition. It imagination, to a charmed and Camelot for now; the names will be nice to have dinner with happy band! We become that follow will be names of real someone he knows. He is physicists, or chemists, or people. Only remember, if you greeted at the door, suitable biologists for practical or read on, that to chemists and polite phrases are exchanged, accidental reasons; but, if we physicists of a certain age the and Polanyi shows him in to the are lucky, once in a while the names are magic names of drawing room, saying, "Yes, I sound of a Hyvac pump, the greater or lesser degree, and to want you to meet the other smell of toluene, the lights in a have known them was a guests, Mr. Eugene Wigner and single, second-floor laboratory privilege. Remember also, Dr. Leo Szilard." Snap the at midnight will take us back please, that graduate students shutter, just as Wigner rises again to our beginnings. Then, and young postdoctorals were diffidently with a little smile for a little while, we will not privy to the councils of the and bow. We all know Eugene remember that we're part of mighty. You won't learn what will be kind and modest with Camelot. If you know what I Einstein said to Planck at his new fellow student, but we mean. dinner-nor who was chasing think Max is right to look so It helps to keep your faith in whose wife through the rose nervous in the picture. Camelot if you can listen from garden of the Institute. What I Wigner's is a most impressive time to time to stories of the old, can show you from a happy intellect, and Szilard, in great days, and hear again the evening spent with Max is a addition to knowing almost names who wrought the few pictures of what it was like everything, is the man who was wondrous deeds, and marvel to grow up scientifically in that to be a leading figure in the how their paths cross and exciting, far-off time. politics of nuclear energy, both diverge and cross again, and First picture-the house of before and after 1941. It won't sometimes touch your own. Michael Polanyi in Berlin. be quite like a dinner at home. Max Bredig lived for a space in Polanyi, a member of Fritz Second picture-a packed Camelot, and on a recent Haber's Institut fur lecture hall in Walther Nernst's sultry, moonless evening I Physikalische Chemie, is institute in Berlin. Every journeyed to his home. He was directing Eugene Wigner's Wednesday afternoon it is seventy-five on June 20, and I thesis, is becoming famous as a thronged with visitors took this as an excuse for an chemical kineticist, studies fast attending the Laue Physics evening of reminiscence. reactions in flames. Max is Colloquium, held not in Laue's

24 OAK RIDGE NATIONAL LABORATORY Review own institute but in Nernst's, pump, quadrant electrometer), Miethe's, was not an error in because the latter has the Haber standing by the door analysis. This is the story. In largest lecture hall available. with a distinguished visitor, his mass spectrometer, Max Pick up a glass and examine Richard Lorenz (the molten identified an ion by the the picture. Far at the back sits salt chemist who preceded strength of the magnetic field Max, who has just come in by Max's father as professor at required to focus it on the subway from Dahlem where Zurich). The picture comes to collector, where it produced a the Haber institute is. In the life and Haber speaks: "And current read on the front row we can pick out five this is Max Bredig, who puts electrometer. Thus, the proton distinguished faces, four water in my wine." Because of appeared at a particular value physicists and one chemist the quadrant electrometer, the of the magnetic field, and on whose discussions attract the mass spectroscope has been most days Max started his scan throng. Four are Nobel Prize assigned the quietest room in of the field just below that winners-Planck, Einstein, the institute, a basement room value, since no lighter ions Laue, and Nernst-while in the Director's residence on could exist. However, one Schrodinger is just developing the grounds. There is one room Saturday, the usually cranky wave mechanics, the subject below it, Haber's wine cellar. apparatus behaved perfectly, which the colloquium will One day, maybe a Saturday, and Max amused himself by address throughout the year, Max is away for several hours exploring unusual parameters and which will bring him the and a water hose on his pump of operation. He started the same prize in 1933. There could breaks. The water runs into the be five Nobel laureates there in winecellar which has no 1925-1926, but Haber and drain- Max returns just before Nernst have quarreled over the the bottom tier of bottles is synthetic ammonia process, awash. The corks would and neither will visit the presumably have held, but other's institute. Much of the what if the labels had been discussion is over the head of soaked off? We are happy not to our new graduate student, but show that picture. it appears to him that, of them Second picture from the all, Nernst has the greatest thesis research-the garden of difficulty in accepting the new the Haber Institute. Fritz mechanics. Which is probably Haber himself is walking slow, natural, considering that he deep in conversation with was the chemist of the five. Einstein and Lise Meitner. Max For his thesis, Max Max is in the picture but outside the garden, too far undertook to study the magnetic field from zero (for no formation of gaseous ions in away to hear, although they reason he can recall), probably hydrogen bv electron impact. are talking about him. Later he enjoying the low noise level of continuing a problem begun by hears a report; Einstein and the electrometer. To his Hartmut Kallmann and under Meitner have both told Haber surprise, halfway to where the his immediate direction. As an the same thing, namely, "You proton should have appeared, aside, the latter went on to should never say 'Never,' but there was a little maximum in discover the scintillation we do not think that Mr. Bredig the signal. Try it again. There it counter, was acquired by the has split the proton." Mr. was, just as it should be. So­ Signal Corps just after the war, Bredig never thought so half a proton. Max didn't and visited Oak Ridge briefly himself, but Haber was of a believe that explanation but at Walter Jordan's instigation. romantic turn of mind, and had had no other at the moment. He Back to Max's thesis problem­ recently been intrigued by reported the observation to again we have two pictures to Miethe's report that mercury Kallmann, who reported it to show. Picture one- Max beside could be transmuted to gold in a Haber, with the results pictured his apparatus (electromagnet, mercury rectifier, with only a above. It was finally explained high-voltage supply, vacuum hundred or so volts. Max's as arising from charge system, mercury diffusion observation, in contrast to

FALL 1977 25 exchange to give hydrogen Franck, it was off to Gottingen. glassblowers, one of them (Max molecular ions, H 2+ , which Now another twist-who knows which one) being the decomposed after acceleration knows whether for better or for man who built the high­ to give protons with a velocity worse? Franck had just pressure equipment for Haber's that caused them to be detected received the Nobel Prize, was work on the ammonia at a magnetic field appropriate besieged by applicants, and synthesis. for a mass half that of the had overcommitted himself. The real photograph from proton. The publication of the Upstairs, however, in the First Karlsruhe reminds me that I've same observation by Rogness Physical Institute (Franck's left out the earliest scene Max and by H. D. (Smyth Report) was the Second) is RobertPohl, pictured. Max, a boy around Smyth, independently of each the physicist who worked so ten, is in the bathroom of his other, gave Max a little trouble, much with color centers in home in Karlsruhe, pouring since the reports appeared crystals. Franck introduces something from a bottle into a before his thesis was Max, Pohl accepts him and tray. A box camera rests on a completed. The graduate Max is soon measuring the table. To one side stands a man students' nightmare. Max number ofF-centers in a in his middle twenties, showing escaped with only a little particular kind of crystal. Pohl Max how to develop the additional work, extending the is an elegant experimentalist photograph he has taken. It is results to nitrogen. whose lectures are known Kasimir Fajans, Georg Now the final picture from throughout Germany for their Bredig's greatest pupil. He his student days-Max in beautiful demonstrations. Max discovered the first isotope of formal dress, preparing to enter builds an interferometer, element 91 (later called the examination room. He inherently an elegant protactinium), stated the law of doesn't look quite so timid as in instrument, for his radioactive displacement the earlier pictures, and if he measurements. Once again we (independently of Soddy), and doesn't look confident, at least have a picture of the student, influenced deeply the he looks determined. Ai; well he the professor, and a visitor. development of valence theory. might. The quality of his thesis What is Pohl pointing to? Pohl, It is fitting to have him in the and of his final examination the master of instrumentation. last picture we see, because he led Haber to recommend him to He is pointing to a carpenter's was Max's lifelong friend. J (and get him accepted by) G. N. wooden clamp with which Max So, that is all the pictures for Lewis at Berkeley. However, he has fastened two crystals tonight. Perhaps another was wearing the wrong suit for together. In his institute, he evening soon. Goodnight. his examination, namely his remarks with pride, they use Goodnight. Outside it's cooler own. He should have borrowed whatever equipment serves the with a little breeze blowing Herman Mark's, which was purpose. Across the coffee table down from Outer Drive. What worn by Wigner and many and across fifty years I bow to days those must have been! other notables who did not, like Max and to Robert Pohl. Haber-Bonhoeffer and Max and Mark, possess their I take the occasion of bowing Harteck-Polanyi and Wigner. own. The picture wouldn't to check the tape recorder, Max Today, we can buy, out of a looked much different, but Max asks if I have enough, I look at catalog or out of a computer, thinks now that he missed a my watch, decide I do and start the means to do the things they good thing. Maybe that's why gathering up my things. "Oh, did so beautifully and so he didn't get to Berkeley. His here's a picture taken at painfully. But, can we do the support was to be through the Karlsruhe when I was an things they couldn't do or Rockefeller Foundation, and undergraduate. I'm in the back didn't imagine? Perhaps we their representative found him row." I pick Max out, he points can't, but if we believe in too young and too unsure of the out one or two others, and I ask Camelot we have to try. My English language for them to about some husky looking orange car looks yellow under take the responsibility for types lying on the ground in the mercury streetlight. I get in turning him loose in Berkeley. front. They'd be athletes in an and start the engine. 1 So, on Haber's American photo of the same recommendation to James era. They're machinists and

26 OAK RIDGE NATIONAL LABORATORY Review This is an account of a little-known activity, the management of the government-o wned reservation surrounding the plants and city of Oak Ridge. Since 1972, it has been in the hands of Dennis Bradburn , a 1969 graduate of The Un iversity of Tennessee 's School of Forestry. Bradburn worked for Union Camp Corporation before joining ORNL's Environmental Sciences Division as a forester. He is chairman of the East Tennessee Chapter of American Foresters. An ecolog ist, woodsman , hunter, fisherman , conservation ist, and above all an environmentalist, he sees his stewardship of the ERDA forests to be a fulfillment of his responsibility as much to the forests as to ERDA . Ste ards ip ofE DA's Forests

By BARBARA LYON

OREST MANAGEMENT is an activity that, unattended within sight of the roads used by the for the most part, maintains a modest thousands of workers in their daily commutings to profile in the public consciousness. And so it has and from the plants. been with the ERDA forests. Except for occasional Despite signs that proclaimed the activity to drastic clearcutting for pine beetle control, the be "controlled burning," the general cry was that year-round work that goes into the healthy no one was tending the flames, and, indeed, it did maintenance of the U.S. Government's woodlands look like a neglected pursuit. in Oak Ridge has gone largely unremarked by the The burnings were, in fact, an integral part of area occupants. a systematic and coordinated forest management Last winter, however, considerable attention, program that has been in practice since 1972, most of it critical, was attracted by what appeared when Dennis Bradburn joined ORNL's Environ­ to be deliberate forest fires set and left burning mental Sciences Division as supervisor of forest

FALL 1977 27 ma~agem~nt for the ERDA Oak Ridge Reser­ then until 1960, MSI planted some nine million vatw~. Tins program has as its goals the provision pine seedlings in old fields and open areas over a of smtB;ble B;reas ~or ecological research, plant total of about 4500 acres. To give an idea of these production s1tes With buffers for protection and pines' growth rate, some of the 1947 plantings are future expansion, and sustained yield of high­ now 60 ft tall and can be seen on the north side of value timber products. the Oak Ridge Turnpike, between the Oak Ridge Gaseous Diffusion Plant and Blair Road. H" Over the years, selective disposal has been The 58,000-acre Oak Ridge Reservation was made of the land, and of the original58,000 acres, acquired by the U.S. Army in 1942 for the about 37,000 are still government owned. Of this construction of the city of Oak Ridge. It comprised acreage, locations totaling about 1500 acres are small farms and a few rural communities and the protected from activities that would alter the uses to which the land had been put varied widely. land's unique character- areas that include the At the time of the purchase, the Army asked TVA many undisturbed cemeteries and structures that for an inventory of structural timber available on qualify as antiquities, as well as habitats of rare the Reservation, but because of the top-secret biota. The five main ERDA installations­ nature of the project at the time, no record exists ORGDP, the Y-12 Plant, ORNL, the Experimental telling how much timber was cut for construction Gas-Cooled Reactor site, and the Comparative use. In 1947, the AEC contractor responsible for Animal Research Laboratory- with their pro­ the operation of the city, Management Services, tected buffer zones occupy about 20,000 acres; the Inc., undertook a reforestation program. From rest is devoted to ecological research and timber production. One of the pine stands that will be kept unburned It was not until 1961 that the benefits of a for comparison studies. forest management program were called to the attention of AEC, when TVA made another timber assessment using a forestry method called the Continuous Forest Inventory. In 1965, these data were used to calculate the growth of the volume of

Tackling a top from a previously felled tree cut for sawtimber, W. P. Gammell and his daughter, Paula, of Karns Community cut firewood on Nursery Road near Gas Line Road.

28 OAK RIDGE NATIONAL LABORATORY Review timber on the Reservation, forming the basis for In 1973, a serious outbreak of southern pine the first management plan. Since then, inven­ beetles necessitated cut-and-burn tactics which tories have been conducted in 1970 and 1975, and resulted in greatly accelerated harvesting of pine the 5-year periods have been designated as the pulpwood. This activity, in which stands of forest management cycles. The inventories are infested pines were clearcut and the residual slash updated at these intervals to keep up with changes burned, extended through 1975, in which year 4800 in the land and its uses and to take advantage of cords of damaged pine timber were salvaged. So new developments in forestry technology. extensive was the damage from the beetle that

T A pine forest that underwent prescription burning last winter. Note the ready access to trees over the already In 1969, the AEC, TVA, the city of Norris, and flourishing ground growth. the Emory River Land Company entered into a 10- year timber contract with Longleaf Industries, Inc., to establish a timber industry in the Oak Ridge area. Longleaf set up a sawmill in Marlow, and in 6 years harvested 7.7 million board feet (mmbf) of sawtimber, considerably less than the 1.5 mmbf per year allowed for optimum preser­ vation of the forests. In 1964, it had been ascertained that an annual harvest of 1.5 mmbf would stimulate timber growth while improving the quality of the growing stock during the rotation period. Three types of harvesting operations are conducted in the management of the Reservation: Sawtimber is harvested in a volume ratio of about 1:3 pine to hard wood; pulpwood is cut by contractors for resale to nearby papermills; and firewood is available to private citizens who pay a flat fee for a permit to enter specific timber areas and cut all they can carry away.

Theodore Ward, of the Anderson County Pulpwood Company, pauses in his pulpwood cutting. His truck, r. , stands waiting, nearly full.

FALL 1977 29 federal assistance in the control operations was given, the fastest growing is the cottonwood, rendered through the U.S. Forestry Service. which grows as much as 15 ft in 2 years. The To balance the severe predation of the eastern red cedar, used primarily for furniture and southern pine beetle, 300 acres of trees are being fenceposts, becomes timber quality at diameters planted each year on the Reservation. greater than 5-in. Like the Virginia pine, however, Extensive timber harvesting requires a corre­ it is not planted here. Both species are self­ sponding reforestation operation. The planting of proliferating. seedlings is intensive during the appropriate The management plan includes several con­ season; from March 1 to May 1 of this year, for straints to timber harvest, in order to maintain a instance, a total of 236,000 seedlings, as many as substantial timber resource base. Normal harvest­ 6000 a day, were planted on prepared land located ing may not exceed one-third of the volume of in four different Reservation areas. Preparing the timber from any one acre, nor may it exceed in any land consists of clearcutting merchantable timber, year more than a specified number of board feet clearing the underbrush and scrub growth (or established annually by ERDA. This number culls), piling and burning the brush, and then ranges narrowly above and below 1.5 mmbf; the harrowing the land to break up the soil. These actual harvest this year is 1.6 mmbf. The trees activities are performed with the use of a bulldozer selected for cutting are in mature stands, and from and a harrow of, needless to say, titanic a distance only a practiced eye can detect their proportions-the latter alone weighing 6 tons. The absence. After the logging is done in the field, the choice of tree species to be planted depends on the tops are left on the forest floor. During the nature of the location: the orientation of the slope, firewood cuts, the tops are available to the permit the quality of the soil, whether ridge or bottom holders. land, its drainage, etc. Pines are planted on the poorer sites because they have a long taproot, adapt best to poor land, break up the soil and add Prescribed burning is a timber management humus, and eventually provide a hospitable tool, used on the Reservation in the culture of the environment for the shade-tolerant hardwoods. loblolly pine. Pine stands are the only ones on There are five southern yellow pine species­ which this practice can be used; hardwoods are slash, long leaf, loblolly, short leaf, and Virginia­ damaged or killed by fire (with the exception, of which loblolly is the most extensively planted oddly, of mature dogwood). But controlled burning here. It is fast growing (an old field planted in 20- of the undergrowth and forest litter has many in. seedlings in 1973 now has 10-ft trees); it grows useful purposes, the foremost of which is to reduce straight, a necessity for quality sawtimber; and it the hazard of wildfire posed by the dry vegetation is self-pruning, that is, as its upper branches grow, around the trees. Fire reduces competition by the lower branches break at the trunk and add to hardwood seedlings, and returns some of the the forest litter. In some species, such as Virginia nutrients to the soil. A side benefit ofbuming is the pine, the lower branches remain on the tree after improvement of wildlife habitat, and the new they have died. growth that follows a bum provides leafy Other species planted on the Reservation are provender for the wild animals at a level where cottonwood, river birch, sweet gum, yellow poplar, they can reach it. Additionally, clearing the forest sycamore, white pine, butternut, black walnut, floor makes access to the trees for thinning and black alder, and green ash. By far the most cutting much easier. valuable species planted here is the black walnut, Needless to say, precautions prior to a burn are which is in high demand for fine furniture and extensive and detailed. Fire lines are plowed veneer. A small plantation of black walnut at the around the designated stands. The three plant intersection of White Wing and Bear Creek roads is supervisors, the Oak Ridge Fire Department, the becoming well established after three years. The ORNL Fire Department, the ERDA-ORO Environ­ trees will be merchantable by 1994. Cottonwood ment and Safety Department, and the State seedlings, like black walnut, require cultivation Forestry Service are all notified of the proposed during the first few years of their growth; activity. Equipment consisting of a tractor for competition must be curbed, and if straight plowing the fire lines, two four-wheel-drive walnut trunks are wanted, a certain amount of pickups equipped with pumper tanks, and the pruning or tying is needed. Of the list of trees necessary hand tools used on terrain inaccessible

30 OAK RIDGE NATIONAL LABORATORY Review to vehicles are all operated with the assistance of ORNL's Plant and Equipment Division workers. The fires are set with a "drip torch," a gallon cannister with a long tube attached, filled with a mixture of gasoline and diesel fuel. One person using such a device can set about a half a mile of fireline. Burning operations are undertaken only under favorable weather conditions in January and February. Bums are conducted either in the One of the novelties Bradburn has come across in the late afternoon when there is least probability of forest: a comb built by wild bees, unusual in that it is unpredictable winds, or more frequently late at fully exposed. It hangs some 25 ft high from a sycamore night, a circumstance which gives rise to the branch. burners' chief problems. If the burning is done AFP, specifying an eventual broadening of the close to the highway, traffic congestion results; if it sawmill's capabilities. Subject to this stipulation, is done farther a way in the hills, telephone the contract will be renewed with AFP in 1979. switchboards fill up with the voices of good Pulpwood sales are achieved under short-term citizens reporting the forest fires. contract offered to-the general public by sealed-bid The most obvious impact of controlled auctions. All timber sales are handled by the burning, of course, is the smoke, and the extent to Nuclear Division's Purchasing Division. which it is harmful is dependent on wind Bradburn's responsibilities under these con­ conditions. The particulate matter remains in the tracts are to mark the timber to be sold and air to some degree until the first rainfall, at which compute its volume; to settle any disagreements time it is washed out. As bad as it is, smoke from with the contractor by cruising the sale area under controlled burning is minimal compared to the dispute with him; to help the loggers find the smoke from wildfire, which controlled burning is cutting boundaries, skid trails, log loading areas, intended to prevent. and access routes; to keep a close check on the Prescribed burning, a new management tool logging operations; to oversee all cleanup work; to the Reservation, has been an established and to keep detailed records of the transactions. practice in the Southeast for 30 years, but was only Income from the sales serve to offset the cost instigated in Tennessee, on the ERDA Reserva­ of managing the Reservation. tion, for the first time in 1972. It was conducted An inventory of the area in 1975 estimated the infrequently during the war against the sawtimber volume to be 126.9 mmbf, of which Southern pine beetle, but has started up again this approximately 30% is southern yellow pine, one­ year and may be expected to proceed regularly seventh white oak, and one-tenth each yellow from now on. Burning is the key element in the poplar, chestnut oak, and red oaks. The remainder control of kudzu, a vine that grows as fast as 2ft a is made up of gums, sycamore, maple, hickory, and week in the summer, covering and consequently beech. From 1961 to 1975, growth averaged 184 killing entire trees if unchecked. Approximately 50 board feet per acre per year; in the last 5 years of acres on the Reservation will need a vigilant that period, this rate had accelerated to 257. program of kudzu control over the next 5 years to protect neighboring timber stands. Because there is still dialogue, some of it Over the long haul, Bradburn contends, the spirited, in the prescribed burning argument, cumulative effects of the selection method of certain loblolly pine stands have been left timber harvesting in individual stands will unburned for comparison studies. ultimately be a change in species composition on the Reservation toward high-quality, tolerant or moderately tolerant trees such as white oak, The contract with Longleaf Industries, Inc. yellow poplar, red oaks, white pine, and black will terminate December 31 , 1978, but since its walnut. Systematic removal of overmature and signing the corporation has sold its interests to cull trees will ensure an increasingly healthy and American Forest Products, Inc. Early last year, an vigorous forest, eventually with an increase in the extension of the contract was negotiated with density of valuable hardwoods.&

FALL 1977 31 Lawrence Berkeley Laboratory granted her an interview on the condition that it take place while he piloted his twin-engine Cessna. Although she enjoyed the view ofthe West Coast, there were unforgettable turbu­ lent moments when she kept saying to herself, "Anything for a story." Her other adventures have included a two­ week tour of seven European laboratories in 1973 and a 1968 visit to a Moscow laboratory where she witnessed an experimental laser fusion demonstration. Lubkin has covered fusion developments in depth over the years. Gloria Lubkin One of the highlights of her reporting career was her interview at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology with the late Lev Artsimovich, who spearheaded the Russian Physics Reporter at ORNL effort to develop the tokamak, now the most heavily funded concept in the U.S. fusion ORNL researchers last June heard a program. She has also reported extensively seminar given by Gloria Lubkin, who writes on the continuing search for superheavy for the "yellow pages" -not the phone book elements, a story colored by the dispute variety, but rather the "State and Society" between Lawrence Berkeley Laboratory and and "Search and Discovery" sections of the Soviet Union as to who first discovered Physics Today, the newsmagazine for phys­ elements 102, 104, 105, and 106 and what the icists. "But we don't practice yellow journal­ names should be. In response to one of her ism," quips Lubkin, who has been with the articles on the dispute, G. N. Flerov of the magazine 14 years. The personable senior Kurchatov Institute wrote, " It would be good editor, who holds a master's degree in nuclear if all women understood physics like you." physics from Boston University and has Commented Lubkin: "I didn't know whether worked in industry and as a physics to be flattered or insulted." instructor at Sarah Lawrence College, has Lubkin was atORNLinJune 1976totalk to reported on the spectrum of physics subfields, Alex Zucker, Lew Keller, and Bob Gentry including high-energy physics, biophysics, about possible evidence for the existence of and one of her favorite areas, astrophysics. superheavy elements in the giant halos of She would probably enjoy working for what monazite crystals. She has covered other jokingly has been proposed as the companion interesting searches which have come to volume for Physics Today-Astronomy To­ naught, including quests for organic super­ night. conductors, gravity waves, and the magnetic Ms. Lubkin scans 30 scientific journals a monopole. But most of her contributions to month plus numerous press releases (most of "Search and Discovery" have dealt with which end up in the wastebasket), but she significant advances in physics, including gets most of her leads on hot physics stories the discoveries of pulsars and the J particle. from cocktail parties, corridor conversations, These articles have been thoroughly checked and questions asked of speakers at national for accuracy but occasionally draw criticism physics meetings. Although she has spent from physicists who feel they have not been most of her writing career glued to the accorded proper credit. Perhaps that's why telephone and typewriter, she has had her the "Search and Discovery" section has been share of on-the-job adventures. Five years facetiously dubbed by some readers as ago, for example, Luis Alvarez of ERDA's "Search and Destroy." - CK

32 OAK RIDGE NATIONAL LABORATORY Review The national Molten Salt Reactor Program at ORNL is now dead , but molten salt chemistry is alive and well and making contributions to solving the nation 's energy problems . That's one message of Stan Cantor's capsule history of molten salt chemistry at ORNL. Stan joined the Aircraft Nuclear Propulsion Chemistry Section of the Materials Chemistry Division at ORNL in 1955 after obtaining his Ph .D. from Tulane University. He has been at ORNL since then , except for a one­ year assignment at Harwell , England , during 1963-1964. Most of his research activities at ORNL have been associated with the chemistry of molten salts ; he has published nearly 30 papers on the subject. Currently in the Chemistry Division , Stan is working on chemical aspects of energy storage. Because Stan was not here for the first five years of the molten salt chemistry program , he had to enrich his storehouse of knowledge on the program by mining the documentary resources-progress reports , 189s , and journal articles. "But," Stan notes, "the resource of \ recollection provides a perspective that documents seldom \ impart. I thank three chemists-Warren Grimes , Pedro Smith, Max Bredig-and two nonchemists-Aivin Weinberg and Ed Bettis-for taking the time to complete my education about this period ." Because space dictates that this history be necessarily brief, Cantor apologizes to his colleagues who may feel that the article suffers from omissions or lack of proper emphasis . "Let me assure you ," Cantor says to his colleagues , past and present, "that my respectforyourwork and your intellectual efforts is , nonetheless , undiminished. "

te Salt Chemistry at OR L A Short History

By STANLEY CANTOR

N 1950, molten-salt chemistry became a Why the sudden interest in molten salts? The significant area of research at Oak Ridge most direct answer: salts, especially fluoride melts National Laboratory. Warren Grimes and his containing uranium, had become a very promising group in the Materials Chemistry Division were fuel for an aircraft reactor. And aircraft reactors intensively studying phase equilibria of uranium had become important to the Laboratory. In tetrafluoride in alkali and alkaline-earth fluorides September 1949, the Atomic Energy Commission and trying to determine if particles of uranium had desjgnated ORNL to carry out the reactor compounds would remain suspended in molten research for the Aircraft Nuclear Propulsion sodium hydroxide. Max Bredig was beginning a Program. Alvin Weinberg first headed the ANP new research program and acting as liaison program, and C. B. Ellis, a civilian employee of the scientist from the Chemistry Division to a new Air Force assigned to ORNL, acted as project reactor program. G. Pedro Smith, in the Metal­ coordinator. The ANP program grew rapidly. The lurgy Division, was investigating corrosion of first quarterly progress report (period ending metals in molten sodium hydroxide. November 30, 1949) mentions 42 people on ANP. A

FALL 1977 33 year later, the quarterly report notes 236 technical fuel solvent (3300 lb of an equimolar mixture of people in 13 Laboratory divisions. Many of the NaF and ZrF4) and fuel concentrate (Na2UFs, engineers were assigned to a newly created ANP highly enriched uranium) by the end of 1953- a Division headed by Ray Briant, who also had been year before the ARE would be in operation. It is not appointed ANP program director. difficult to imagine the intense research required The use of molten ionic fluorides as the to assure that the fuel salt would perform properly uranium solvent in a liquid-fueled aircraft reactor in the ARE. The necessary research efforts in seems to have occurred to others, but the first phase equilibria, in salt purification methods, and document which systematically develops the idea in several aspects of corrosion chemistry were is an ORNL report (Y-657, dated July 20, 1950) on carried out under the direction of Warren Grimes high-temperature liquid fuels by Warren Grimes within the Materials Chemistry Division. and Doug Hill (Doug, a chemistry professor at During this period in the Chemistry Division, Duke University, worked at ORNL almost every research activity focused on the interaction of summer from the late forties to the late sixties). liquid metals and salts and on electrical transport This report concluded: "The system BeF2-UF4- behavior in molten salts. Max Bredig, J. W. NaF or LiF offers the best hope of providing a "Swede" Johnson, and Harry Bronstein deter­ solvent for uranium of good stability, concentra­ mined phase equilibria in alkali metal-alkali tion and moderator properties." halide systems; they were assisted by Prof. Although it was soon established that William Smith (University of Tennessee). In fluorides would not be sufficiently self-moder­ another group under E. R. Van Artsdalen, I. S. ating, they did possess the chemical stability Yaffee carried out the definitive measurements of required. By the end of 1950, Charlie Barton, the electrical conductivity of alkali halides, and in George Nessie, Bob Moore, and Paul Blakely had 1955, Art Dworkin began measuring self-diffusion performed enough measurements to show that coefficients in molten nitrates. molten alkali fluorides containing UF4 could be a In the Metallurgy Division, corrosion chemis­ reactor fuel with a fairly low melting point. The try of molten fluorides was also being advanced by lowest melting (454°C) alkali fluoride mixture was metallurgists George Adamson and Al Taboada, the eutectic composed of the fluorides of lithium, using thermal-convection loops fabricated from a sodium, and potassium, for which the clever good many alloys. The study of hydroxides wB:s acronym FLiNaK was invented. continued, although it was apparent that therr Molten caustic (NaOH) had also been a corrosivity would be too great to permit their use in candidate fuel solvent. Its advantages as a high-temperature reactors. Hydroxide research neutron moderator were offset by its well-known was carried out by Pedro Smith, E. E. Hoffman, corrosivity to most metals of construction. John Mark Steidlitz, John Cathcart, and Chuck Boston. Redman, Lyle Overholser, and D. E. Nicholson In the course of these studies, intriguing color found, in the summer of 1950, that uranium changes were observed in molten hydroxides in compounds were only slightly soluble in molten the absence of contacting metal. These color NaOH. Thereafter, ANP fuel mixtures involving changes and their relationship to structure could hydroxides were accorded less consideration. be studied with greater precision by the methods of optical spectroscopy. Thus began the pion~ri~g 1951-195.3: Forrnati e Years and thoroughgoing series of spectroscopic m­ vestigations in molten salts carried out by Smith, The first develop men tal goal of the Aircraft Boston, and many others. Nuclear Propulsion Program was to build and operate a facility to test the feasibility of using 1955-1963: The 'T k -0 molten salt fuels. This facility, the Aircraft Reactor Experiment, operated for 221 hr (not The successful operation of the ARE notwith­ counting prenuclear operations) in November standing it was apparent to the now more 1954, only five years after the ANP program experien~ed reactor chemists (Warren Grimes~ in started at ORNL. Ed Bettis described the ARE in particular) that if molten-salt reactors were go~g his inimitable fashion in the Fall1976 issue ofthe to be a part of the nation's nuclear electnc­ ORNL Review. What is remarkable is that generating capacity, a broad fundamental re­ George Nessie and his associates had prepared the search program in molten-salt chemistry would be

34 OAK RIDGE NATIONAL LABORATORY Review Roy Thoma investigates phase diagrams for molten salt reactors in 1959.

a prerequisite to such nuclear development. Enthusiasm for molten salt research spread to Research into fuels, coolants, fuel processing other divisions. In the Metallurgy Division, optical methods, fission-product behavior, and corrosion spectroscopy under Pedro Smith developed very reactions would have to be pursued with the rapidly; by the early 1960's, there was a steady highest competence, and that competence had to stream of post-docs, students, and well-established be developed at Oak Ridge National Laboratory. professional chemists working with Pedro on some Thus, in 1955 in Grimes's ANP Chemistry aspect of molten-salt spectroscopy. In the Ana­ section of the Materials Chemistry Division, a new lytical Chemistry Division, at this time, Jack group was formed under Forrest Blankenship to Young developed windowless cells and other study "Physico-Chemical Principles of Reactions ingenious experimental means for studying the in High Temperature Molten Salt Media" (the spectroscopic behavior of fluoride melts. Del actual title of the 189). The group consisted Manning and AI Meyer began the work which led initially of Mort Panish, Leo Topol, Bert Clampitt, to their development of electrochemical "in-line" Sid Langer, Milt Blander, and myself. Roy analytical methods. Newton, formerly a chemistry professor at Purdue In the Chemistry Division, a spectacular University, served as full-time consultant to the advance in understanding the structure of molten group; with his specialty in chemical thermo­ salts occurred with the x-ray and neutron dynamics, an important aspect of this group's diffraction studies of Henri Levy, "Dan" Danford, effort as well as of much of the research effort in Paul Agron, and Max Bredig. In brief, for molten the ANP Chemistry section, Newton was an halides, they found that nearest neighbor atoms extremely valuable consultant. Bob Minturn, then were, on the average, closer together than in the an Air Force officer assigned to ORNL, also crystal but that the number of nearest neighbors became a member of the group. Curt Beusman, a was reduced. By pure coincidence (which seems to recent ORSORT graduate, joined this group in be the norm in any hot new scientific field) a 1956 and completed his dissertation research in similar investigation was being pursued in molten-salt thermodynamics. France, where J. Zarzycki, working in the Other groups under Grimes were also tackling laboratory of the St. Gobain Company, obtained x­ significant problems by fundamental physical­ ray diffraction patterns for several molten halides. chemical means. George Watson, who came to the Both investigations yielded substantially the Lab in 1955 from a professorship at Texas A and same results. The ORNL study had the advantage M, promptly started determining solubilities and of neutron diffraction measurements of the reaction equilibria in molten fluorides; by the end lithium halides; from these measurements charge of 1956, George had persuaded two of his former ordering between oppositely charged ions could be students at Texas A and M, Jim Shaffer and Bob directly identified. Evans, to join his group. Another former student, Also in the Chemistry Division, an elegant Minton Kelly, was already at ORNL in the I & C series of measurements of electrical conductivity Division; he later joined Watson in the Reactor of molten alkali metal-alkali halide mixtures was Chemistry Division. The work on phase equilibria carried out by Harry Bronstein and Max Bredig. was also expanded at this time under Roy These experiments demonstrated the considerable Thoma and Charlie Barton; by 1959, Thoma had electronic conduction in these mixtures. The published the exceedingly valuable compilation results have been a continuing source of inspira­ Phase Diagrams of Nuclear Reactor Materials tion to Prof. Norman Nachtrieb and his students (0RNI.r2545). at the University of Chicago, who, by magnetic

FALL 1977 35 susceptibility measurements, have explored the reached criticality. In the MSRE the fluoride fuel mechanism of electronic conduction in these circulated through a core of graphite bars. The core liquids. vessel, pipes, pumps, heat exchangers, and salt A publication highlight of this period was a containers were all fabricated from a nickel­ volume of reviews, Molten Salt Chemistry (Inter­ molybdenum alloy called Hastelloy N, which had science Publishers, New York, 1964), edited by Milt been developed at ORNL for the ANP program. 7 Blander. Half of the chapters were written by The MSRE coolant consisted of LiF and BeF2 in ORNL chemists. Blander wrote the chapter on the molar ratio 2:1. The composition of the fuel salt solution thermodynamics, Levy and Danford was 7LiF-BeF2-ZrF4-UF4, roughly 65-29-5-1 mole %. reviewed diffraction studies, Max Bredig contri­ ZrF4 was present in the fuel salt to prevent the buted a chapter on metal-salt interactions, Pedro precipitation of uranium oxide in case of in­ Smith wrote the chapter on electronic spectra. The advertent oxide contamination. chapter reviewing vibrational spectra was written Given the importance of molten solutions of by a New Zealander, David James, while he was LiF and BeF2 to the MSRE in particular and to based in the Metals and Ceramics Division. This molten-salt reactors in general, it is under­ volume, a splendid review of basic molten-salt standable why this system had to be studied chemistry up to about 1963, emphasized the intensively and comprehensively. A list of those scientific leadership of ORNL in this field. who carried out these chemical studies would contain the names of about half the people in the Reactor Chemistry Division (formed in 1958 with 1963-1975: MSRE and M~RP Warren Grimes as its director) and, also, many in the Chemistry and Analytical Chemistry Di­ visions. However, I do wish to note that much of In 1963, within the building that had housed the chemical thermodynamics and the polymer the ARE, a new machine, the Molten Salt Reactor model represented the efforts of Charlie Baes Experiment, was taking shape. Some nonchemical and his group; the massive effort represented by historical highlights of the period from ARE to phase diagrams was performed by Roy Thoma MSRE are as follows: By 1955, it was obvious that and the people who worked with him; the very any embodiment of an aircraft reactor was going exacting measurements on electrochemical trans­ to be a very challenging enterprise, and ORNL's port were carried out primarily by Jerry molten-salt version was, if anything, even more Braunstein. challenging. It is not too hard to imagine the Chemists were, of course, assigned to analyze inherent difficulties of designing a reactor with salt samples removed from the reactor and to two hot circulating liquids, fluoride fuel mixture study the chemical behavior of the salts in the and sodium coolant, for a plane that would, on MSRE itself. Roy Thoma has documented this in occasion, have to fly upside down! In 1957-1958, his report Chemical Aspects of MSRE Operations work on the molten-salt aircraft reactor was (0RNIA658). Ed Compere, Stan Kirslis, Ed phased out, but R&D in support of other aircraft Bohlmann, Forrest Blankenship, and Warren reactor concepts continued here un til1961. Shortly Grimes have published (ORNL-4865) a thorough­ after President Kennedy took office, the national going analysis of fission product behavior in the program was canceled. In 1956, an ORNL group MSRE. Many chemical analyses and an im­ under H. G. MacPherson began studying a number portant tritium study were carried out by Al Meyer, of designs for molten-salt converters and breeders. John Dale, and Ralph Apple. The results of these studies were considered in 1959 The salts that were used in the MSRE were by an ad hoc committee convened by the AEC to prepared, purified, and loaded into the reactor by evaluate fluid-fuel reactor concepts, the other two Jim Shaffer and his group. The fuel for nuclear being the aqueous homogeneous reactor and the operations in the period from June 1965 through liquid-metal-fueled reactor. The committee con­ March 1968 was uranium-235. During the summer cluded that, of the three concepts, the molten-salt of 1968, after the original uranium from the fuel reactor had "the highest probability of achieving salt was extracted by means of fluorine gas, the technical feasibility." fuel salt was charged with uranium-233 (in the The design of the reactor began in the summer form of a 7LiF-233UF4 fuel concentrate), thereby of 1960, and on June 1, 1965, the MSRE first making the MSRE the world's first reactor to

36 OAK RIDGE NATIONAL LABORATORY Review operate with this nuclear fuel. Operation of the gated in the Chemical Technology Division (by reactor with uranium-233 took place from October Ferris, Gene McNeese, Mailen, and Fred Smith) for 1968 through 1969. To demonstrate that plutonium removing the rare earths from liquid bismuth by could be used as a makeup fuel in molten-salt extracting with molten lithium chloride. In reactors, about 180 g of this nuclear fuel was added essence, the newer fuel processing methods to the MSRE in the form of crystalline 239PuF3 permitted the mixing of fuel and fertile streams during August and September 1969. into a single melt, thereby simplifying the design With the MSRE proceeding smoothly, the next of the breeder. phase of reactor development was the design of the Although fuel processing by reductive ex­ breeder in which uranium-233 could be bred by traction and metal transfer became part of the neutron bombardment of thorium. The core of this conceptual design 'of the breeder, other methods for machine was conceived as containing two fluids protactinium removal were proposed and actively separated by graphite. The fuel salt was to be UF4- pursued. Charlie Baes, Carlos Bamberger, and LiF-BeF2 (0.2-68.3-31.5 mole %); the fertile salt, Bob Ross, following up on a process studied some circulating in a separate blanket circuit, would be years earlier by Jim Shaffer, Minton Kelly, and ThF4-LiF-BeF2 (2-71-27mole %) . By 1968,however, George Watson, investigated the use of oxides to the breeder concept changed over to a single-fluid precipitate protactinium from the fuel salt. In so core in which fissile and fertile material were doing, they showed that protactinium precipitated contained in the same salt melt. One development as a pentavalent species. that led to the change was new irradiation data, Another interesting processing scheme that obtained first at Harwell, that clearly showed was experimentally investigated concerned the graphite undergoing neutron-induced dimen­ chemical removal of a significant amount of sional changes at a rate faster than had been xenon-135, the fission product with the highest previously believed. Thus, the complex graphite capture cross section for thermal neutrons. Baes, core required for a two-fluid breeder would have to Bamberger, and Bob Wichner showed that by be replaced more often than had been anticipated. bubbling a gaseous mixture of hydrogen fluoride But a second, and more important, reason for (HF) and hydrogen (H2) through molten fluoride, changing to a single-fluid core arose from they could effectively remove iodine-135 before it chemical advances in fuel processing. decayed to xenon-135. Fuel is bred in a molten-salt breeder reactor­ Another question demanding attention con­ or in any thermal breeder reactor-by transmuta­ cerned the coolant for the breeder reactor. tion of thorium into protactinium-233; the protac­ Although molten LiF-BeF2 was entirely adequate tinium then decays with a 27.4-day half-life to for the MSRE, a lower melting, less expensive fissionable uranium-233. But protactinium-233 alternative was clearly desirable. From the has a relatively high capture cross section for information screened, the eutectic mixture of thermal neutrons (about 43 barns), which neces­ sodium fluoroborate (NaBF4) and sodium fluoride sitates its removal from the neutron flux on a short (NaF) seemed to be the best choice. The time cycle (three to five days). The trick in a single­ fluoroborate coolant, as it came to be called, was fluid breeder is to selectively remove the protac­ lower melting, far less expensive, and less viscous tinium; this is difficult since protactinium and than the MSRE coolant. At reactor temperatures, uranium are chemically very similar. Reactions by it decomposed slightly, volatilizing gaseous boron which protactinium could be chemically reduced trifluoride (BF3), but this was considered tolerable. by thorium metal and extracted into liquid As might be expected, its thermal behavior had to bismuth were proposed in 1966 and tested by be characterized. I measured vapor pressures and Warren Grimes, Jim Shaffer, Dave Moulton, densities, L. 0. Gilpatrick and Charlie Barton Charlie Barton, and Bob Ross in the Reactor obtained the phase diagram of the NaBF4-NaF Chemistry Division. Important confirmatory data system, Art Dworkin determined heats of tran­ about these reactions were obtained by Les Ferris sition and heat capacities, and Jim Cooke, Reactor and Jim Mailen in the Chemical Technology Division, measured its thermal conductivity. Division. Further work showed that a similar It is certainly beyond the scope of this account reductive extraction could remove the rare earth to trace the factors leading to the end of the MSRP. fission products from the fuel. A so-called metal Suffice it to say that the AEC decided to emphasize transfer process was later formulated and investi- (and fund) the development of liquid-metal-cooled

FALL 1977 37 fast breeders. At the end of January 1973, it was thermal conductivity; these properties are learned that the MSRP would not be funded for the especially useful in storage subsystems of solar following fiscal year. At that stage, virtually all thermal conversion installations and also in project-related research and development activity high-temperature process-heat applications. ceased. 3. Coal conversion catalysis. Lewis acids such as But by December 1973 the program was SbCb , AlCl3, and ZnCh can catalyze hydro­ partially refunded, and Gene McNeese was cracking reactions to produce fuels. appointed as the new director. For a bit more than 4. Fusion reactor blankets. Molten alkali nitrate­ two years the chemistry of molten-salt reactors nitrite solutions as coolants; molten LiF-BeFz advanced. In that period, experiments carried out for breeding tritium, a fusion reactor fuel. by Jim Keiser and Herb McCoy (Metals and Ceramics Division) indicated that tellurium­ There are other ERDA programs where future induced embrittlement of Hastelloy N might be prospects should be good. Molten-salt batteries are avoided (1) by maintaining a relatively small being developed as energy storage devices for fraction (0.033 or greater) of the uranium in the electrical power load leveling and for powering trivalent state and (2) by adding 1 to 2%niobium to motor vehicles. A battery program at ORNL might the alloy. By spectrophotometric techniques, Mac start from closely related ongoing efforts in fuel Toth and L. 0 . Gilpatrick elucidated the chemistry cells and in thermal energy storage by utilizing our of UF3 and UF4 in molten LiF-BeFz, greatly expertise in electrochemistry, in heat transfer, and extending earlier work of Geoffry Long (an in handling high-temperature liquids. exchange scientist from Harwell in 1963-1964) Another exciting area may involve converting and Forrest Blankenship. Mechanisms for pre­ the devil's playground into a useful power source. venting the passage of tritium into the steam Underlying many areas of the United States subsystem were explored in bench-scale experi­ (Yellowstone Park for example) there are vast ments by Leon Maya and on a much larger scale (cubic kilometers is the characteristic dimension) (in a loopwithcirculatingmoltenNaBF4-NaFthat reservoirs of magma-hot, viscous mixtures of was constructed from hardware cannibalized from molten and solid rock. The heat from magmas the MSRE coolant loop) by Gus Smith, Dick Engel, represents a limitless geothermal energy resource, and their associates in the Reactor Division. so ERDA is funding a small program, mostly at The question of which coolant would best Sandia Laboratories, aimed at developing this serve the needs of the breeder reactor was concept. Two very important chemical compo­ reexamined in depth by a special task force, nents of magma are Si02 and MgO. Because of manned by experienced project personnel. They similarities in atomic size, the chemical and concluded that a double-coolant configuration of physical behavior of Si02 and MgO is very much LiF-BeF2 and of helium would be optimal but that like that of BeF2 and LiF. Thus, it would not be molten NaBF4-NaF might be adequate. In early much of a trick to translate ORNL's know-how

1976, the MSRP was again halted, despite the with BeF2 and LiF into advancing research steady technical progress that had been made. directed at exploiting the heat contained in magma bodies. Finally- and we've come full circle- what about molten-salt reactors? It should be re­ Although molten-salt fission-reactor R&D is, membered that this reactor is a thermal breeder, once again, in another period of quietus, there are producing uranium-233, not plutonium. Moreover, many ERDA projects where molten-salt chemistry since good breeding performance and, therefore, plays, or can play, important roles. In current economic operation require that the fuel be ORNL programs, molten salts are under investi­ reprocessed at or very near the reactor site, the gation in the following areas: probability of diverting fissionable material while in transit would be minimized. Thus, the nation 1. Fuel cells. Molten alkali carbonates are an may come around to considering again molten-salt important class of electrolytes. reactors as a viable energy option, and where 2. Thermal energy storage. The advantage here is better than at ORNL could research, engineering, that molten salts are dense fluids, of high heat and intellectual enthusiasm carry such a program capacity (or heat of melting) and of good to the stage of successful implementation? I

38 OAK RIDGE NATIONAL LABORATORY Review z 0 (/) c.. ::; 0 I f­ z ....,0

The welding torch is in a position to strike a preheating Research Shop arc to the tantalum support plate beneath the silicon. The silicon is thus heated, and alternating arcs, rapidly applied, will heat both pieces. Finally, one pass across ~chievement the silicon itself completes the weld.

Welding technologists some­ did not work. Hunley ob­ times solve unique welding tained permission to use problems. tantalum as a support. By A researcher needed the striking the arc to the tan­ ends of silicon strip pairs talum and increasing the sili­ welded together. Electron con temperature to a con­ beam welding had been tried ductive level, he was able to unsuccessfuly with the silicon weld the silicon joints quickly resting on a quartz plate to and successfully. prevent contamination. Part Strangely enough, manual of the problem is the non­ dexterity may have overrid­ conductive nature of silicon at den machine reliability, as room temperature. the critical point in this sili­ The problem was given to con weld was breaking the arc welding technologist J. W. at the moment the silicon Hunley. Tungsten arc weld­ pieces welded. ing with the quartz support Next problem?

FALL 1977 39 Charlie Baes, Jerry Olson, Ralph Ratty, and Hal Goeller ponder the global impact of increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations.

How Fast Can We Safely Burn Coal?

By CAROLYN KRAUSE

OME SCENARIOS FOR THE YEAR 2040: In the Great Plains, wheat farmers who have For the first time in years, the White House not been wiped out financially by dustbowl storms has not received a Fraser balsam fir from the Blue are contemplating moving to the cornbelt to raise Ridge Mountains for its official Christmas tree. A their crops and establish their silos. They have change in climate there and in the Great Smoky become persuaded that the cyclic droughts of Mountains has caused these outlying areas of recent years are part of a permanent trend to Maritime Canada climate to warm up. The warmer warming and drying, not a series of temporary climate is unsuitable for the fir trees and, aberrations, so they are preparing for a migra· furthermore, favors a devastating insect pest-the tion. balsam wooly aphid-to hasten destruction of the Other regions of the world are benefiting from fir forests. The Fraser fir is in danger of becoming the warming trend. Some deserts bloom in extinct, and forest rangers and national park response to greater-than-normal rainfall, for officials are worried that the aphid will start to example. work on a new host-the red spruce trees which, Climatologists attribute the warming trend to along with the firs, have thrived for hundreds of the furnaces of civilization which have been thousands of years in these mountains. spewing forth increasing loads of carbon dioxide

40 OAK RIDGE NATIONAL LABORATORY Review to the atmosphere. This colorless and odorless gas, message ofWeinberg and the Oak Ridge report has exhaled by man and used by plants to make not been lost on the Carter Administration, which themselves green, restricts the escape into space of proposed $3 million fornewC02-climate studies in infrared radiation from the sun-warmed earth. the FY 1978 budget. Since increased C02 absorbs more of the infrared radiation than formerly, a larger amount of heat accumulates, causing a slight but significant According to the Oak Ridge report, atmo­ increase in average global temperature. This spheric C02 has grown steadily from 295 ppm in impact of atmospheric C02 on climate- dubbed 1860 (when the Industrial Revolution gathered the "greenhouse effect"-has become more ap­ momentum) to 330 ppm now, an increase of 12%. parent in recent years because of the escalating The C02 content of the atmosphere has been rate at which power plants and industry through­ increasing at 0.2% per year since 1958 when out the world have burned coal, oil from shale, and regular, accurate measurements commenced. The synthetic oil and gas. overall increase has thus far been equivalent to half of the cumulative release of C02 from the worldwide combustion of fossil fuels. The other These scenarios may never happen, but they half of the released fossil carbon presumably has m;:~y be within the realm of possibility if the world been absorbed by the oceans and land biota. usage of fossil fuels continues to grow and coal One of the messages of the report is this: If becomes the principal global source of energy. In combustion of fossil fuels continues to grow at the 1976, Alvin Weinberg, former ORNL Director and historical annual rate of 4.3% (an unlikely scenario now head of the Institite for Energy Analysis at unless there is a ban on nuclear power), the Oak Ridge Associated Universities, warned that a atmospheric C02 concentration could double in 60 sharp rise in the rate at which the world burns years, resulting in an increase in the average fossil fuel over the next few decades could result in global temperature of perhaps 2 to 3°C. On the a large increase in atmospheric C02 content, other hand, a much slower rate ofincreaseoffossil which in turn could boost the surface temperature fuel combustion might not affect the climate of the earth enough to have serious economic and enough to produce unacceptable changes. So the ecological implications. The same year, Alex question that needs to be answered is this: Is there Zucker, ORNL's Associate Director for Physical a maximum rate at which we can safely burn oil, Sciences, assembled an ad hoc study group to gas, and coal without dangerously disturbing the compile a state-of-the-art report on atmospheric climate? C02 and climate-a report which would summa­ Answering this question requires more ex­ rize what is known about the problem, what tensive mathematical modeling to determine studies are being done, and what research is levels of C02 and its distribution among air, required to dispel the uncertainties. Appointed to oceans, and terrestrial plant life. Mechanisms that the group were Charlie Baes of the Chemistry must be accounted for in these models, according Division, group chairman; Jerry Olson of the to the Oak Ridge report, are decreased snow and Environmental Sciences Division, who was al­ ice cover (which would result in a decrease in ready at work on such an assessment and had reflected radiation, thus producing additional advocated such a study since the 1960s; Hal warming), changes in cloud cover and in the Goeller of ORNL's Program Planning and temperature of cloud tops, effects of ocean Analysis Office, who has been concerned with circulation on C02 absorption, and effects of resource problems; and Ralph Rotty, meteorologist changes in water balance and terrestrial plant life and engineer at the Institute for Energy Analysis, on atmospheric C02 levels. who has long been concerned with fuels and climatic implications. In August 1976, the group issued an ORNL report entitled "The Global Carbon Dioxide In addition to the need to predict more Problem;" an abbreviated version of this report accurately the climatic effects of increasing entitled "Carbon Dioxide and Climate: The atmospheric C02, the Oak Ridge group calls for Uncontrolled Experiment" was published in the research to learn moreaboutthecarboncycle-the May-June 1977 issue of American Scientist. The flow of C02 into the atmosphere not only by

FALL 1977 41 ATMOSPHERE

711

GPP Rg GPP Rg 74 39 i 43 14 5 2 90 90 Rh Rh to NPP + 31 NPP + 3 31 25 25 F F

SURFACE 580 LIVE

DEAD 12,000 RAPID SLOW THER MOCLINE 6,600 1,650

{ 7,500 recoverable) 160 1,600 DEEP 31,800 REACTIVE SEDIMENTS 400

FOSSIL FUELS TERRESTRIAL OCEAN AND SHALE BIOSPHERE

The major fluxes (in gigatons per year) and pool sizes (in gigatons) of carbon are shown for the carbon cycle. and the other half is rapidly absorbed by the ocean Fluxes include gross primary production (GPP), green and land. Thus, for every ton of coal burned, at plant respiration (Rg), net primary production (NPP = least one ton of COz is left in the atmosphere, GPP- Rg), respiration by heterotrophs (Rh), and fires (F). accounting for the buildup evident in the past 120 years. Extra C02 has also been released from forest clearing and from erosion and oxidation of burning of fossil fuels but also by plant and animal humus in soils, but there is controversy on how respiration, decay, burning of wood, periodic large these sources have been. releases from volcanoes, and weathering of One of the unknowns with regard to the limestone; and the absorption of atmospheric CO z carbon cycle is the extent to which plants may now by oceans and lakes, by growth of terrestrial plant be "fertilized" by the ~owing amounts of life through photosynthesis, and by formation of atmospheric COz. Photosynthetic capacities may limestone on the ocean floor. In the carbon cycle, be enhanced by the greater availability ofCOz, but exchanges ofCOz take place continuously between it is unclear whether plants may be able to take up the air and the land (and its biota), between the air as much fossil carbon as some physiologists and the ocean, and between the seawater and its anticipate in view of other limitations such as biota and the ocean floor. But there is only moisture and nutrients. extremely slow natural cycling between fossil fuel Jerry Olson and Yip Hoi Chan, a Singapore deposits and these carbon pools compared with the Ph.D. candidate at the University of Tennessee, rate at which fossil fuels are being burned. For have been interested in studying another aspect of example, for every ton of coal that is burned, 2 to 3 the carbon cycle- carbon storage in plants and tons of CO z are produced. So far, on the average, how carbon storage capacities change with land half of this amount is retained in the atmosphere clearing as wooded areas are converted to

42 OAK RIDGE NATIONAL LABORATORY Review SLOWLY EXCHANGING RAPIDLY EXCHANGING LIVE LARGE STEM LIVE FUNGI, BACTERIA LARGE ROOT MOST ANIMALS LONG-LIVED ANIMAL SMALL STEM SMALL ROOT OEAO THICK RAWHUMUS REPRODUCTIVE PEAT FOLIAGE SHALLOW HUMUS OEAO NONDURABLE PRODUCTS DEEP HUMUS STANDING DEAD DURABLE PRODUCTS SURFACE UTTER BURIED UTTER

NORTHE RN WOODS

The quanttttes of carbon in the various terrestrial ecosystems are shown as concentration (vertical direc­

SOUTHERN WOODS tion) us area (horizontal direction). The vertical line divides rapidly exchanging from slowly exchanging organic forms. AGRO·URBAN ~ OTHER NONWOODS V> MARSH 0 0 GRASSLAND ~ OPEN SAVANNA 2 TUNDRA, BOG SCALES 0 2 ALPINE "' ..J DESERT ~ CARBON 9 ;:! SEMI DESERT a::~"' '§! 100•10 0 <( metric tons >- 0 According to the American Scientist article: N +--__,-l 2 "Man can have a significant influence on the LAKES AND STREAMS ? 5 kg m (5,000 tons km2 GLACIERS AND SNOW orga nic cor bon fluxes between the land and the atmosphere. If, for per-unit area) example, he could cause the living biomass (600 gigatons, or billion metric tons) to increase at a rate of 1% per year, this would more than agricultural production and to urban development counterbalance the current annual production of to accommodate the expanding population. Since CO z from fossil fuel (5 Gtlyr). Since woods have trees absorb CO z and then store more carbon than more carbon per hectare, this could be accom­ small plants occupying an equivalent area, man's plished by conversion of more land to woods. conversion of forests to farmland and other uses However, the maximum increase in biomass that reduces the land's storage capacity and hence its could be realized would be small compared to the ability, at least temporarily, to remove excess total mass of fossil carbon (perhaps 7300 Gt) that fossil carbon from the atmosphere. man might ultimately consume." Says Olson: "Forest clearing has a significant Charlie Baes, who has long been interested in impact on the global environment. In some the chemistry of water solutions, and his tropical countries, rain forests are being cleared Chemistry Division colleagues hope to examine rapidly-sometimes to accommodate sudden in­ the oceans' role in the carbon cycle. They have creases in population and sometimes for more proposed to study experimentally the chemical extensive cattle grazing. We are not doing what is equilibria involved in the uptake of atmospheric most promising for taking full advantage of what COzby the oceans as well as the rate processes by nature offers us for carbon storage." which the calcium carbonate minerals calcite, As funding becomes available, Olson and his aragonite, and dolomite are formed on the ocean colleagues plan to conduct a thorough study of the floor and destroyed by weathering on land. carbon cycle with reference to the role of terrestrial Ocean chemistry is important in under­ plants and soils as carbon pools. They will standing the response of the ocean to fossil carbon. examine the effects of forest clearing and various As Baes notes, the capacity of the surface waters land-use schemes on terrestrial carbon pools. They alone to take up CO z is quite limited and is hope to work with groups elsewhere which have determined primarily by the presence of a small 2 developed global atmospheric computer models supply of carbonate ion (C03 -), which reacts with into which results from CO z models could be water and CO z to form bicarbonate ion (HC03-), entered to calculate the likely resulting climate which accounts for about 90% of all the inorganic changes. carbon in the sea.

FALL 1977 43 44 OAK RIDGE NATIONAL LABORATORY Review ---~ -- ~ ----

~ Here is an example of patchy land clearing in a tropical \ rain forest in southeastern Chiapas, Mexico, near the border of Guatemala. This slash-and-burn agriculture­ where forests are cleared so that the land can be used for crop farming, cattle grazing, and accommodating growing village populations-results in a decrease in biomass that absorbs C02• Large-scale forest clearing in Mexico takes place in areas Forest clearing by burning (inset). believed to offer other valuable resources such as oil and gas.

The Oak Ridge study group has also concluded which could wreak havoc on some crops and that more information is required so that we can forests. anticipate the consequences of climate change. • Inland water levels may be lowered as warming Based on what is known, the group foresees enhances evaporation; this occurrence could several possible adverse impacts of a permanent adversely affect many organisms, land use warming trend: patterns, and even hydroelectric power • Crops and animal species tuned to existing production. climatic conditions may have to give way to • In recent years, science writers have discussed others better adapted to a warming trend. the possibility that the greenhouse effect could • Rates of plant respiration and decay may increase the rate of glacial melting enough to outstrip photosynthetic production, resulting in cause a sharp rise in the sea level. They have release of additional C02. painted an alarming picture oflow-lying coastal cities being inundated, forcing evacuation of • Microbial and insect pests from adjacent regions millions of people to higher ground. The Oak may be favored over existing species, a situation Ridge group does not expect such changes to be

FALL 1977 45 sudden, in light of uncertainties associated with production of plants that take up C02. "The the melting process, but agrees that many problem with that scheme," Baes says, "is that counties in the United States could start losing increased production of plankton could result in ground in the next century. According to the greater production than consumption of C02 American Scientist article: because plankton create calcium carbonate shells, and release C02 in the process." "Perhaps the most often cited effect of a Another less plausible but more costly general warming is the rise in sea level that would solution is to contain and liquefy or solidify C02 accompany the melting of glacial ice. A complete from coal-fired power plants, deliver it by pipeline melting could raise the level of the oceans over to the ocean, and inject it deep enough so that the 50 m, and quite obviously even a partial melting water pressure prevents it from rising to the could have profound effects on the shorelands of surface. the world and all their associated values. The It may well be that there really are no good melting process, however, is quite complex and not emergency measures that can be implemented to yet understood well enough to predict the rate at combat the climatic effects of too rapid a buildup of which this could occur. Warmer air alone could fossil carbon in the atmosphere. As Olson puts it, produce only a slow melting but warm polar "The winter of 1977 suggested that we are ill­ waters could induce a flow of ice from the prepared to cope with a warming that may become continental shelves into the sea, possibly raising several times as great as the cooling we just the sea level5 min 300 years." experienced in the eastern half ofNorth America." Even if there were ways to reverse the climatic effects, political repercussions could ensue as residents of regions benefiting from a warming Until the consequences of climatic change are trend mount a protest. better understood, it will not be feasible to determine whether implementation of expensive remedial measures are justified to reduce the The earth's surface temperature, which aver­ growth of atmospheric C02. What might some of ages 15° C, rose about 0.6°C in the 60 years before these measures be? Suggestions include: 1940. In the past three decades, the earth has 1. Reduce coal combustion by increasing undergone a cooling, with its temperature drop­ energy conservation, by relying more heavily on ping 0.3°C. Some scientists ascribed this slight nuclear and solar power, and by replacing some cooling to industrial pollution, theorizing that coal with wood and other biomass as fuel. airborne particulates can shade the earth by Says Baes: "The wood will slowly decay reflecting back incoming solar radiation. (Cool anyway and tum to C02, so we might as well use summers tend to follow the larger volcanic more of it as fuel. We could grow wood for fuel eruptions for several years because of the dust purposes." Wood can have the added advantage blown into the stratosphere which settles out for long storage, as in building structures, that slowly.) Industry spews forth both C02 and delay the return to C02during eventual burning or particulates, but the latter's effects are mostly decay. "Another method tha"t has been suggested local and likely to remain much less than would be to grow kelp in the ocean, or water meteorologists are coming to expect from C02. hyacinth (a floating plant that proliferates ra!)idly Opposing influences on climate may have been in Florida fresh waters), which can be converted to canceling each other's effects lately, giving rise to methane through fermentation," Baes adds. the controversy over whether the net effects of 2. Establish a worldwide food reserve in case man's future activities will be a cooling or a disruption of climatic patterns results in a warming trend. decline in agricultural production, even tempo­ In recent national meetings on climate or the rarily, until food producers find better species, C02 problem, Olson finds scientists generally varieties, and marketing arrangements for new tending to agree now that discharges of fossil crop patterns. carbon pose substantially more threat to the There have been less plausible suggestions, climate on a global scale than do particles from too. One is to dump nutrients like phosphorous, energy sources. (The particles, incidentally, may silicon, and nitrogen into the ocean to increase absorb some solar radiation, thus adding heat to

46 OAK RIDGE NATIONAL LABORATORY Review 35

32 .... 0 Q) ~ ~ 28 :::;, E ...J 0. w a. :::;) (.) 24 Here are two scenarios considered plausible for the use of LJ._ · ~ Q) fossil fuels over the next 100 years. In the high-use case, ...J.c (jj ~ 20 assuming an annual growth rate of 4.3% reduced in (/) 0 proportion to the fraction of the ultimate fossil fuel o E u.- supply that has been consumed, more than half of all 0 0u. -c ~6 fossil fuel carbon will be released in less than a century. Q) In the low-use case, assuming a 2%growth rate until2025 w- 1- g followed by a symmetrical decrease, only about a fourth <1 ·- 12 a:: 5- as much fossil carbon will be released as in the high-use Q) case. 8

4

0 ~=±==~=-L-~--~--L-~--~__...J 1900 ~940 1980 2020 2060 the atmosphere, but the extent to which this carbon released would be 1.5 times the carbon absorption occurs depends on the location and the content of the pre-industrial atmosphere, or one­ various particles' optical properties.) Thermal fourth that of the realistic high-use hypothesis. discharges from energy sources, Olson adds, are Olson believes the fossil fuel consumption considered even less of a threat to the next pattern that will be adopted will lie somewhere century's global climate, although they could have near the high-use rate at first, followed by a adverse localized impacts. struggle to return to a low-use scenario after effects There is 10 times as much carbon in the of the excess release are belatedly recognized. How world's fossil fuel reserves as in the atmosphere; any fossil fuel use scenario will affect man's or, more specifically, the atmosphere contains welfare cannot be predicted until more knowledge 700 x 109 metric tons of carbon while the is obtained on the carbon cycle, on the likely recoverable fossil fuel reserves hold 7300 x 109 climatic effects of increasing atmospheric C02, tons. and on the ecological and economic consequences The Oak Ridge group considers as a high-use of climate change. How well the various parts of scenario one involving the use of fossil fuel at a the problem can be organized and solved will growth rate near 4% per year for a while followed challenge the best efforts of all the people and by an eventual gradual decrease as the supply is agencies who become involved. used up. In this scenario, roughly half of all fossil As Roger Revelle and H. E. Seuss stated in carbon resources might be released to the 1957: "Human beings are now carrying out a large­ atmosphere in less than 100 years-a situation scale geophysical experiment of a kind that could which could produce many of the consequences not have happened in the past nor be repeated in mentioned above. In the group's low-use scenario, the future. Within a few centuries we are returning which might have more acceptable, or at least to the atmosphere and oceans the concentrated delayed, consequences, they envision the use of organic carbon stored in the sedimentary rocks fossil fuel growing at 2% of the present rate per over hundreds of millions of years. This experi­ year until the year 2025, followed by a decrease as ment, if adequately documented, may yield a far­ renewable energy sources become available and as reaching insight into the processes determining fossil fuel use is discouraged. The total fossil weather and climate." I

FALL 1977 47 A ards Appointed director of the newly A• "'po · ·""'e ·s created Health and Safety Re­ search Division is Steve Kaye. ~

Phillip R. Westmoreland W. J. Lackey was elected was given the Publicity Chair­ Fellow of the American Ce­ man Award at the March ramics Society. Also, in recog­ meeting of the American Insti­ nition of outstanding pro­ tute of Chemical Engineers. fessional accomplishment, he was asked to serve on a panel which evaluates applications The Tennessee Institute of in the National Research Chemists, the state chapter of Council's postdoctoral re­ the American Institute of search associate programs. Chemists, elected R. G. Wymer president and P. S. Baker secretary-treasurer J. E. Cunningham was ap­ at its May meeting. pointed to a 3-year term on the National Nominating Committee of the American The Materials Sciences and Society of Metals, a 3-yearterm Technology Division of the on the ASM Advisory Tech­ American Nuclear Society be­ nical Awareness Council, stowed the Best Paper Award and an indefinite term on the on E . C. Beahm. Newly elected ASM-ANS Nuclear Engineer­ ANS Fellows are A. L. Lotts ing Materials Handbook Edito­ and J. L. Scott. rial Board. J. R. Weir was nominated for a 3-year term on the ASM Board of Trustees. John Auxier became presi­ Domenic Canonico, Henry dent of the Health Physics Inouye, and D. L. McElroy Society in June for a one-year were named Fellows in ASM. term.

For many contributions, in­ H. R. Livesay's drawing of cluding "outstanding service to the thorium utilization pro­ the nation in both scientific gram's particle size analyzer and managerial progress in the was chosen for the cover of the utilization of atomic energy," IAEA proceedings of the Nu­ D. B. Trauger was designated clear Fuel Quality Assurance by Tennessee Wesleyan Col­ Seminar held last spring in lege to receive the honorary Oslo, Norway. degree of Doctor of Science.

48 OAK RIDGE NATIONAL LABORATORY Review R. F. Limburg, president of Bandy received First Awards Whitesides, Chairman; Nu­ the Knoxville chapter of the of Excellence; and two by Jim clear Fuel Cycle Division­ National Association of Ac­ Richmond received Second Ray Wymer, secretary-trea­ countants and secretary of its Awards of Excellence. All the surer; and Nuclear Reactor Tennessee Council, was se­ Court of Honor and Best of Safety Division-Bill Cot­ lected by that association for Show prints will be placed on a trell, vice chairman. its 1977 Man of the Year traveling loan exhibit for a Award. year. All the honored photo­ The National Aeronautics and graphers are on the ORNL Space Administration Group Photography staff. Five of the Nuclear Division's Achievement Award this year six entries won Industrial Re­ was bestowed on a team of ORNL metallurgists, A. C. search's IR-100 Awards this R. W. McClung and K. Ka­ Schaffhauser, R. W. Knight, year: the Portable Centrifugal washima have been selected Fast Analyser, C. D. Scott; C. T. Liu, and Henry Inouye, for the American Society for for their contributions to the Johnson Noise Power Ther­ Nondestructive Testing 1977 Pioneer XI mission to Saturn. mometer, C. J. Borkowski; Achievement Award for "the Small Angle X Ray Scattering most outstanding contribution Camera, R. W. Hendricks; in materials evaluation during Pete Patriarca received one Cytriage Blood Centrifuge, 1976." K. V. Cook was elected of the two 1977 Honorary J. P. Breillatt, Jr.; and a Fellow in ASNDT. Member Awards given by the Single Atom Detection, Sam American Welding Society Hurst. Board of Directors for his At the annual meeting of the "outstanding contributions to American Nuclear Society in welding knowledge through his At the 27th Annual Con­ June, the Society's Special work in materials research and vention of the Tennessee Pro­ Award was given to J. 0. development as one of the fessional Photographers' As­ Blomeke, Floyd L. Culler, industry's experts on welding sociation in Gatlinburg, 17 D. E. Ferguson, and R. G. as applied to nuclear reactor ORNL photographs were se­ Wymer for their outstanding components and fuel element lected for awards: four by work on the fuel cycle and in fabrication. This esteemed Gary Welch won First recognition of their leading elective honor is presented to a Awards of Excellence, of which roles over the past 30 years in person of acknowledged emi­ one was chosen BestofShowin the chemical technology of fuel nence in the welding profes­ the Industrial Photography recycle. Also at the meeting, the sion." The Society also be­ category; five by Jon Thomp­ following ORNL staff members stowed its Committee Service son received First Awards of were elected to offices: Isotopes Award on G. M. Goodwin in Excellence, of which two were Division-Enzo Ricci, chair­ recognition ofhis contributions awarded Court of Honor dis­ man; Environmental Sciences as chairman of its National tinction; four by Charles Division-Thomas H. Row, Awards Committee, and gave Tucker received First Awards vice chairman; Controlled Nu­ its Dedicated Service Award to of Excellence, with one in the clear Fusion Division-Don G. M. Slaughter for serving Court of Honor; one by Terry Steiner, Chairman; Nuclear as chairman of its Committee Marlar and one by Ward Criticality Safety-Elliott on Brazing and Welding.