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Wärtsilä Q4 Huomenna - Lieviä Huolia Ilmassa Aamukatsaus 26.01.2016 Pääuutiset Wärtsilä Q4 huomenna - lieviä huolia ilmassa Caverion Q4 huomenna - ohjeistus pääosassa Kesko päivitys - osake oikein hinnoiteltu, aika siirtyä seuraamaan kehitystä sivusta Saksan elinkeinoelämän luottamus rapisi selvästi tammikuussa Indeksit Inderesin TOP3 OMXH 8175.0 OMXS 467.8 DAX 9736 Eurostoxx 336.3 Päätös Tavoite Suositus Citycon 2.19 2.60 Lisää -0.3 % -0.3 % -0.3 % -0.6 % "Arvostusero verrokkeihin revennyt liian suureksi." Vuoden alusta -4.9 % Vuoden alusta -7.4 % Vuoden alusta -9.4 % Vuoden alusta -8.1 % Stora Enso 7.37 9.00 Osta S&P 500 1877.1 Nikkei 16654.7 Shanghai 2867.5 EUR/USD 1.085 "Riskipreemio on noussut liikaa" -1.6 % -2.7 % -2.4 % 0.0 % Taaleritehdas 8.70 10.00 Lisää Vuoden alusta -8.2 % Vuoden alusta -12.5 % Vuoden alusta -19.0 % Vuoden alusta -0.1 % "Näemme osakkeessa useita positiivisia ajureita lyhyellä aikavälillä" Edellisen pörssipäivän nousijat ja laskijat Ajankohtaista Yhtiö Päätös Muutos Yhtiö Päätös Muutos Detection Technology 4.70 10.6 % Soprano 0.37 -10.7 % Seuraavassa aamukatsauksessa: Bittium 6.51 8.1 % Ixonos 0.06 -6.0 % - Q4-tuloskommentit: Wärtsilä Aktia 11.96 7.7 % Tecnotree 0.11 -5.1 % - Q4-ennakkokommentit: Zeeland Family Cleantech 1.32 5.8 % Talenom 4.80 -4.0 % Herantis Pharma 1.28 5.8 % Viking Line 22.20 -3.9 % Mukana katsauksessa ovat seuraavat yhtiöt: Kesko, Caverion, Wärtsilä, Innofactor, United Bankers, eQ, Taaleritehdas Kalenteri Yhtiö Klo Ennuste (EBIT) Konsensus Vuosi sitten Talousluvut Klo Konsensus ** Edellinen US: S&P/Case-Shiller-asuntohintaindeksi16:00 5.7 % 5.5 % US: Kuluttajaluottamus 17:00 96.5 96.5 * Aasian kurssit noin 08:00 ** Reuters Inderes Aamukatsaus sivu 1 Inderes Pörssikanava www.inderes.fi/porssikanava Q4’15-tuloskausi Sijoitusvuosi 2016 Nixu-tutkimus yhteenveto Panostaja Q4 Markkinakatsaus Viimeisimmät raportit inderes.fi-palvelussa: Kehittyneillä markkinoilla Euroopassa viikko alkoi pääasiassa laskutunnelmissa ja lasku jatkui myös USA:ssa, jossa Dow Jones sulki 1,3 % ja S&P 500 sekä Nasdaq 1,6 % 25.1 Soprano Myy miinuksella. Öljyn hinnan painuminen uuteen luisuun laski mielialoja myös markkinalla, Riskitaso noussut korkeaksi jossa päivän laskukärjessä oli jälleen energiasektori. 25.1 Nokian Renkaat Vähennä Kurssilaskusta huolimatta arvostus on haastava Aasian markkinoilla tiistai alkoi laskun merkeissä. MSCI Asia APEX oli aamukahdeksalta 1,9 % ja Shanghai Composite 2,6 % miinuksella. Japanin 22.1 Stora Enso Osta elvytysspekulaatiot hiipuivat, kun markkinan huomio keskittyi öljyn hinnan luisuun. Turvamarginaalia on jo riittävästi Bloombergin mukaan osakkeiden ja öljyn hintojen korrelaatio on nyt suurimmillaan vuoden 2013 jälkeen. 21.1 Konecranes Lisää Korkea epävarmuus painaa arvostusta Valuuttamarkkinoilla euron kurssi dollaria vastaan on pysynyt melko vakaana ennen 20.1 CapMan Lisää Fedin huomista korkokokousta. Eiliset odotettua heikommat luvut Saksan Ifo- Tarjolla varma yli 7 %:n osinkotuotto indeksistä lisäsivät hieman painetta euron kurssiin. Aamulla yhteisvaluutta noteerattiin 1,085 dollarissa. Raaka-ainemarkkinalla rajut vaihtelut öljyn hinnassa jatkuivat maanantaina. WTI- futuurit painuivat päivän aikana lähes 8 % perjantain kovan nousun jälkeen ja pysyivät laskussa myös aamulla, jolloin futuurit liikkuivat 29,56 dollarissa/bbl. Markkinat ja valuutat OMX Helsinki EUR/USD-kurssi 10000 1,45 9500 1,4 1,35 9000 1,3 8500 1,25 8000 1,2 1,15 7500 1,1 7000 1,05 6500 1 6000 1/2014 4/2014 7/2014 10/2014 1/2015 4/2015 7/2015 10/2015 Inderes Aamukatsaus sivu 2 Makrokatsaus Saksan elinkeinoelämän luottamus rapisi selvästi tammikuussa Marianne Palmu Alkuvuosi ei ole ollut kovin vahva euroalueen elinkeinoelämälle talousindikaattoreista Saksan talous on odotuksissamme päätellen. Viime perjantaina julkaistut Markit Economicsin ostopäällikköindeksit näyttivät yksi euroalueen tunnelmien heikentyneen sekä teollisuudessa että palvelusektorilla, ja eilen Saksan talouskasvuvetureista kuluvalle elinkeinoelämän tunnelmia kuvaava Ifo-indeksi jäi tammikuun osalta markkinaodotuksista. vuodelle, ja maan hallitus arvioi Indeksi laski tasolle 107,3 joulukuun lukemasta 108,6. Yritysten näkemys nykyisestä talouskasvuksi 1,7 % vuonna 2016. taloustilanteesta pysyi suhteellisen hyvänä, mutta laski tulevaisuuden osalta merkittävästi, Saksan suuren painoarvon ansiosta ja mikä on epämiellyttävä yllätys Saksan talousnäkymiin viitaten. kasvulukemien toteutuessa euroalueen kokonaiskasvu noussee Erot eri toimialojen välillä pysyivät suurina Ifo-kyselyssä. Tehdasteollisuuden tunnelmat lähelle Saksan lukemia. Eiliset luvut painuivat 12 kuukauden pohjiin, samoin rakentamisessa tunnelmat synkentyivät, mutta ovat kuitenkin osoitus siitä, että riskit pysyivät selvästi pitkän aikavälin keskiarvon yläpuolella. Sen sijaan vähittäismyynnissä yritysten toimintaympäristössä ovat odotukset kohentuivat verrattuna joulukuuhun. Sektorikohtaiset luvut kertovat euroalueen nousseet ja pysyvät korkeina. talouskasvuajureiden keskittymisestä kuluttajasektorille, kun taas teollisuuden tuska jatkuu Suhtaudumme edelleen optimistisesti myös alkuvuonna. Saksan näkymiin, sillä etenkin vähittäismyynti- ja palvelusektorilla Saksan talous on odotuksissamme yksi euroalueen talouskasvuvetureista kuluvalle on kaikki ainekset kasvuun. vuodelle, ja maan hallitus arvioi talouskasvuksi 1,7 % vuonna 2016. Saksan suuren painoarvon ansiosta ja kasvulukemien toteutuessa euroalueen kokonaiskasvu noussee lähelle Saksan lukemia. Eiliset luvut ovat kuitenkin osoitus siitä, että riskit yritysten toimintaympäristössä ovat nousseet ja pysyvät korkeina. Suhtaudumme edelleen optimistisesti Saksan näkymiin, sillä etenkin vähittäismyynti- ja palvelusektorilla on kaikki ainekset kasvuun. Saksan Ifo-indeksi 120 115 110 105 100 95 90 85 80 75 70 Lähde: Thomson Reuters Inderes Aamukatsaus sivu 3 Teknologia Innofactorille 0,55 MEUR:n tilaus Kevalta Mikael Rautanen Innofactor kertoi eilen Kevan valinneen julkisen hankinnan kilpailutuksessa Innofactorin Kyseessä on nykyisen Innofactorin toimittamaan verkkopalveluiden julkaisualustan ja siihen liittyvät palvelut. mittakaavassa jo pienehkö tilaus, sillä yhtiön liikevaihto nousee tänä vuonna Järjestelmätoimitus sisältää uuden järjestelmän käyttöönottoprojektin, ylläpito- ja yrityskaupan myötä lähes 60 MEUR:n tukipalvelut. Hankinnan arvonlisäveroton vertailuhinta sopimuskauden ajalta on 0,55 luokkaan. miljoonaa euroa. Kyseessä on nykyisen Innofactorin mittakaavassa jo pienehkö tilaus, sillä yhtiön liikevaihto nousee tänä vuonna yrityskaupan myötä lähes 60 MEUR:n luokkaan. Innofactor ( IFA1V ) PÄÄTÖS: EUR 0.91 Vähennä TAVOITE: EUR 0.90 Konepajat Wärtsilä Q4 huomenna - lieviä huolia ilmassa Juha Kinnunen Ennustetaulukko Q4'14 Q4'15 Q4'15e Q4'15e Konsensus 2015e Wärtsilä julkaisee Q4-raporttinsa MEUR / EUR Vertailu Toteutunut Inderes Konsensus Alin Ylin Inderes huomenaamulla noin kello 8:30. Keskeiset konsensusodotukset ovat: Liikevaihto 1549 1642 1665 1600 - 1759 5081 Liikevoitto (oikaistu) 196,0 221,7 227,7 213,5 - 254,0 618,7 Liikevaihto 1665 MEUR Tulos ennen veroja 157,0 205,7 213,1 188,1 - 271,0 559,7 Liikevoitto ilman kertaeriä 228 EPS (oikaistu) 0,76 0,85 0,86 0,74 - 1,06 2,36 MEUR Osinko/osake 1,15 1,30 1,23 1,16 - 1,36 1,30 Kertaluontoisia kuluja -14 MEUR Liikevaihdon kasvu-% 9,8 % 6,0 % 7,5 % 3,3 % - 13,6 % 6,3 % Oikaistu EPS 0,86 euroa Liikevoitto-% (oikaistu) 12,7 % 13,5 % 13,7 % 13,3 % - 14,4 % 12,2 % Uudet tilaukset 1370 MEUR Lähde: Inderes & Vara Research (konsensus) Omat ennusteemme ovat konsensuksen alapuolella, mutta Wärtsilä julkaisee tilinpäätöksensä huomenaamulla noin kello 8:30. Poikkeuksellisen odotamme kuitenkin yhtiöltä varsin epävarmassa markkinatilanteessa huomiomme kiinnittyy erityisesti ohjeistukseen vuodelle vahvaa Q4-tulosta. 2016, uusiin tilauksiin sekä kommentteihin markkinoiden kehityksestä. Q4 on myös yhtiölle kausiluontoisesti selvästi paras neljännes, joten se on myös tuloksellisesti tärkeä. Markkinatilanne on tällä hetkellä Ennusteemme ovat hieman konsensuksen alapuolella. Mielestämme osake on tällä poikkeuksellisen epävarma, minkä hetkellä arvostettu varsin korkealle suhteessa epävarmoihin näkymiin. takia suurin huomiomme keskittyy ohjeistukseen, uusiin tilauksiin sekä Odotamme Wärtsilän tehneen Q4:llä noin 222 MEUR:n puhdistetun liikevoiton (Q4’14: 196 kommentteihin markkinakehityksestä. MEUR) noin 1,64 miljardin euron liikevaihdolla (+6 % vertailukaudesta). Tulosennusteita sekoittavat mahdolliset negatiiviset kertaerät, joita olemme itse odottaneen kirjattavan 10 Odotamme yhtiön liikevaihdon MEUR liittyen yhtiön uuteen säästöohjelmaan (yhtiön arvio koko ohjelman kertakuluista kasvavan noin 2 % vuonna 2016, mitä 25-30 MEUR). Vara Researchin keräämä konsensus sisälsi keskimäärin 14 MEUR:n ohjeistuksen pitäisi heijastella. kertakulut, mutta ennusteemme ovat myös operatiivisesti konsensuksen alapuolella. Kannattavuuden suhteen odotamme ohjeistuksen olevan sama kuin 2015 Päähuomiomme tilinpäätöksessä keskittyy ohjeistukseen. Odotamme Wärtsilän eli 12,0-12,5 % (EBIT-% ilman ohjeistavan perinteiseen tyyliinsä liikevaihdon kasvua ja kannattavuutta (EBIT-% ennen kertaeriä). kertaeriä). Liikevaihdon kasvun suhteen haarukka voi olla aikaisempi 0-10 % tai mahdollisesti heikompi -5 - +5 %, sillä odotamme tällä hetkellä vuoden 2016 liikevaihdon Ennustamme uusien tilauksien olleen kasvavan noin 2 % (kuten myös konsensus). Ennustamme kannattavuuden olevan tänä Q4:llä noin 1330 MEUR, mikä on vuonna samalla tasolle kuin vuonna 2015 (ennuste 12,2 %), joten ohjeistushaarukka lienee hieman konsensuksen alapuolella. jälleen 12,0-12,5 %.
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