Houston Business A Perspective on the Houston Economy

Fort Bend County: Life in the Urban Fast Lane

Fort Bend County, 14 miles southwest of the central business district, is the fastest growing part of the Houston metropolitan area. Fort Bend’s spectacular success in recent years has earned it a long and growing list of accolades: Woods and Poole, an economic consulting group, listed it as having the 10th strongest economic base of any Location and U.S. county; American Demographics Inc. named timing have worked it the nation’s third-best address for managerial for Fort Bend. Large and professional workers; Texas Business named its Sugar Land community the second-best city in tracts of land located Texas for corporate expansion or relocation. Cen-

FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF DALLAS HOUSTON BRANCH December 1996 close to the inner city sus data show that among counties with 250,000 or more residents, Fort Bend enjoyed the second- give it important fastest population growth of any U.S. county advantages over other through the first half of the 1990s, trailing only Houston suburbs. Clark County in the Las Vegas, Nevada, area. What’s the formula for this kind of growth? Fort Bend’s companions on these high-performance lists are mostly suburban counties across the United States, including cities such as Washington, D.C., Atlanta and Memphis. High-growth Texas counties include Williamson (Round Rock and Georgetown near Austin) and the more mature Collin County (Plano and North Dallas). Fort Bend might be dismissed as just another emerging suburb, except that its level of success sets it apart. This article examines the general formula for suburban growth, as well as Fort Bend’s adroit application of these high-growth principles.

RISING INCOME LEVELS Is the growth of the suburbs simply a product of growing affluence? The economic studies avail- able say no. There are two conflicting forces at work in suburbanization as income rises, and the forces offset one another. Sugar Co. The project’s success quickly led to First, as affluence rises, commuters sacrifice Imperial Sugar’s sale of another 7,500 acres of more income per minute of travel time. The its plantation to Gerald Hines, who opened the opportunity cost of commuting increases, and massive First Colony development. Now, more the attraction of long trips to work decreases. than 25 years later, First Colony covers 9,700 Second, higher income makes larger lots attrac- acres and is nearing the end of its development tive. As income increases, consumers are will- life. The most recent of the county’s 11 planned ing to travel greater distances as they are pulled communities, just beginning development, is toward inexpensive suburban land. the 6,100-acre Sienna Plantation on Highway 6 On average, for suburbs of cities across the near Arcola. In another 20 to 25 years, this United States, the studies suggest that the two community is expected to be home to 35,000 conflicting effects tend to cancel each other residents in 14,000 households. out. For Fort Bend, however, these factors Location and timing have worked for Fort probably yield local advantages. First, the key Bend. Large tracts of land located close to the competitor suburbs of Houston—such as the inner city give it important advantages over Woodlands, the FM 1960 area or Kingwood— other Houston suburbs. are to the north and northwest; the suburbs in eastern Fort Bend County are closer and SUBURB VERSUS CENTRAL CITY offer better commuting times to both the Suburban advantages over the central city central business district and the Galleria office usually assume three dimensions: taxes, schools and retail complex. Other things equal, Fort and crime. Fort Bend has been able to exploit Bend should be the first choice of the affluent all three factors. commuter. The Houston metropolitan area does not Second, throughout the Houston suburbs, suffer the classic central city/suburban fiscal we find an unusually large supply of inexpen- relationship, characterized by a downward spi- sive land. This is the result, in part, of geogra- ral in the inner city touched off a declining tax phy and history and, in part, of Houston’s base, which forces higher central city tax rates, unique reliance on more than 500 municipal which drive business to the suburbs, and so utility districts that develop suburban infra- forth. Although Fort Bend has used its growing structure on demand. In Fort Bend’s case, land tax base to cut its property taxes in recent has been available in extraordinarily large tracts. years, property taxes generally remain higher In the 1980s, as the oil bust sent residential throughout the suburbs than in the city, and property values across the city plummeting, Houston’s inner loop has actually experienced Houston’s large master-planned communities moderate population growth in the 1990s. became a safe haven for homeowners, with Fort Bend’s fiscal advantages have been property values preserved best in large devel- strategic strikes. For example, Stafford—located opments that offered a uniform and high- on the rich retail alley along Interstate 59 quality product. These planned communities South—has eliminated all property taxes to also provided significant cost savings to the draw retailers and, instead, finances the city developer through economies of scale, and budget through its growing sales tax revenue. developers in turn offered highly competitive Throughout the county, various communities home prices. Such large-scale developments, have dropped the statewide tax on invento- however, depended on the unique availability ries—the so-called freeport exemption—and of large tracts of land. have attracted numerous valve and computer It was here that Sugar Land and Fort Bend manufacturers as a result. Finally, aggressive County’s past as an agricultural area—espe- city and county property tax abatements are cially its plantation history in sugar, rice and negotiated with companies that bring well- other products—came into play. Fort Bend’s paying jobs or match the upscale image the legacy was the large tracts required for residen- county promotes. tial development. Schools and crime are important factors in The first of the 11 planned communities drawing population to the suburbs. According now located in Fort Bend was the 1,200-acre to Texas’ test-based rating system for schools, Sugar Creek development, begun in the late in 1994–95 both the Houston Independent 1960s on farmland belonging to the Imperial School District (HISD) and the Fort Bend ISD had seven schools achieve the top “exemplary” Figure 1 rating. The total number of schools ranked, Commuter Contribution to County Wages and Salaries however, was 263 HISD schools, compared Percentage of wages and salaries with 41 in Fort Bend ISD. All the Fort Bend 70 schools were at least “acceptable” under this rating system, while over a quarter of the HISD 60 schools were not. Similar comparisons can be 50 made to school districts located throughout suburban Fort Bend, Harris and Montgomery 40 counties. 30 There is no question that the Houston met- ropolitan area has made great progress in re- 20 Fort Bend Montgomery ducing its overall crime rate in recent years: 10 crime in Houston is now lower than in Dallas, San Antonio and even Austin. However, within 0 the metropolitan area, violent crimes are three ’69 ’74 ’79 ’84 ’89 ’94 times more common in Harris County than in Fort Bend, and nonviolent crime is twice as common in Harris County. the First Colony Mall and retail centers such as The role of race in Houston’s suburbani- the Fountains in Stafford have brought higher zation is harder to fathom today. In the 1960s, levels of retailing to Fort Bend. Taxable retail the integration of many of Houston’s inner-city sales averaged annual increases of 9 percent neighborhoods led to white-flight, and neigh- from 1989 to 1995. The addition of First Colony borhood demographics shifted quickly into Mall in 1995, however, pushed retail sales up minority status. Today, the planned communi- 15.8 percent between 1995 and 1996. ties of suburban Fort Bend County are racially The second phase of suburban business and ethnically integrated, but income and class development comes as employers follow em- have replaced race as the selection criteria for ployees back to the suburbs. With only 20 entry. These new suburbs still leave the eco- percent of Houston’s office space in the central nomically disadvantaged behind as an inner- business district and most of it spread across city problem. the city’s freeways and interchanges, suburbs like Fort Bend have become significant white- MORE THAN A SUBURB? collar employers. Companies such as Fluor Fort Bend primarily depends on the com- Daniel, Prudential Insurance, Schlumberger, muter for income. Figure 1 shows the net gain Unocal and MCI continue to move large num- in wages, salaries and employer-paid benefits bers of professional and managerial employees to Fort Bend and Montgomery County as com- into Fort Bend County. muters cross county lines. In 1994, 54 percent Combining this white-collar employment of wages and salaries earned by Fort Bend with a growing contingent of clean, light in- residents came from outside the county, a fig- dustry in electronics, valves and oil equip- ure that slipped from 58.6 percent in 1990. Fort ment, Fort Bend is slowly developing a local Bend’s rise as a commuter county in the 1970s economic base apart from its commuters. is also evident in Figure 1, as is Montgomery Its dependence on the city of Houston and County’s similar dependence on commuter traffic Harris County remains high, however, not for half or more of local wages and salaries. just for commuter income but for the social, The first businesses to follow commuters to cultural and sporting amenities the suburbs the suburbs are retailers, and the relatively cannot provide. affluent Fort Bend commuters have not been neglected in this regard. Development followed — Robert W. Gilmer a predictable pattern: at first, “one-stop” retail- Timothy K. Hopper ers such as dry cleaners, building materials and food stores moved to Fort Bend, with compari- son shopping such as clothing and furniture left to the city. However, the recent opening of HOUSTON BEIGE BOOK NOVEMBER 1996 costs almostasfastproductprices. tories andrisingcrudepricesraisedproduction oil productpricestobuildprofits,aslowinven- down unusuallyearly. cent below1995levelsandarebeingdrawn over $3.Naturalgasinventoriesremain8per- gas attheHenryHubinLouisianahavebeen to $25perbarrel,andspotpricesfornatural Coast revivedboth.Crudeoilreboundedto$23 cember intheMidwestandalongEast in warmNovemberweather,butacoldDe- at thistimelastyear. pump havebeenabout17centshigherthan levels in25years.Gasolinepricesatthe and pulledgasolinestockstothelowest have cutgasolineproductionandinventories year’s levels,andeffortstorebuildstocks inventories arestill16percentunderlast ucts, especiallyheatingoil.Heatingoil ing marketsforcrudeoilandrelatedprod- ENERGY PRICESANDREFINING excellent sales. before Thanksgiving,andearlyresultsindicate year. Heavyseasonalpromotionsbeganwell however, areconcernedaboutitsshortnessthis ing forwardtoagreatholidayseason.Some, RETAILING sponse tohigherenergyprices. turing employmentcontinuetogrowinre- retailers. Oilmachineryanddurablemanufac- sults indicateagoodholidayseasonaheadfor local constructioninrecentmonths.Earlyre- in Houston,withanotableslowdownthe Refiners wereunabletocapitalizeonrising Crude oilandnaturalgaspriceslanguished Weather inrecentweekshasbeendriv- After goodfallsales,localretailersarelook- E conomic expansionremainsmoderate The views expressedare thoseofthe authoranddo notnecessarily reflectthepositions ilGle oso rnh•Federal ReserveBank ofDallas • Houston Branch • Bill Gilmer of the Federal Reserve Bank ofDallas or the Federal Reserve System. For moreinformation,call Bill Gilmerat(713)652-1546. ..Bx27 Houston, Texas 77252 • P.O. Box2578 For acopyofthispublication, writeto for modestexpansion. the suburbanofficemarketisprobablypoised dustrial warehousemarketremainsstrong,and lords beginningtograntconcessions.Thein- a softermarketfornewapartments,withland- board prices. pushed upsharplybyhigherlumberandwall- ago, andpricesofnewlybuilthomeswere inventories wereup19percentoverayear home salesdropped14percent.New percent overtheOctober1995level,whilenew sults inOctober.Existinghomesaleswereup2 REAL ESTATE cent increaseinfeedstockcosts. not strongenoughtopassthroughallthere- mestic andforeigndemandremainsstrong,but are hurtingpetrochemicalproducers.Bothdo- PETROCHEMICALS Texas, withnaturalgasasthechiefobjective. beyond theGulfCoastregionandintoSouth shore expansion.Texasdrillinghasextended Texas hasbeenthebiggestwinnerinthison- rigs overthistimelastyear. tic onshoredrillinghasincreasedbyabout75 rigs unavailabletoexpandoperations.Domes- manufacturing. in oilfieldmachineryand6,200durable past 12months,Houstonhasadded1,300jobs and oilfieldskillsarebeingreported.Overthe ited andnumerousshortagesofgeophysical remains exceptionallystrong,capacityislim- OIL SERVICESANDMACHINERY One respondentexpressedconcernabout Home salesinHoustonshowedmixedre- Higher pricesfornaturalgasliquidsandoil With 50ormorerigsaddedinrecentweeks, Offshore workhaspeakedworldwide,with Demand foroilservicesandmachinery