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Into Eurasia INTO EURASIA MONITORING THE EU’S CENTRAL ASIA STRATEGY INTO EURASIA MONITORING THE EU’S CENTRAL ASIA STRATEGY REPORT OF THE EUCAM PROJECT MICHAEL EMERSON & JOS BOONSTRA (RAPPORTEURS) NAFISA HASANOVA, MARLENE LARUELLE, SEBASTIEN PEYROUSE CENTRE FOR EUROPEAN POLICY STUDIES (CEPS), BRUSSELS FUNDACIÓN PARA LAS RELACIONES INTERNACIONALES Y EL DIÁLOGO EXTERIOR (FRIDE), MADRID The Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS) is an independent policy research institute based in Brussels. Its mission is to produce sound analytical research leading to constructive solutions to the challenges facing Europe today. FRIDE is an independent European think tank based in Madrid that provides innovative thinking on Europe’s role on the international stage; its core research interests include democracy, human rights, peace and security. Support for the EU-Central Asia Monitoring (EUCAM) project is gratefully acknowledged from the Open Society Institute and the ministries of foreign affairs of The Netherlands, the Czech Republic, Spain and the United Kingdom. The views expressed in this report are those of the authors writing in a personal capacity and do not necessarily reflect those of CEPS, FRIDE or any other institution with which they are associated. Cover: Decorations inside the Gur-e Amir mausoleum in Samarkand, Uzbekistan. Photo credit: Doron. ISBN 978-92-9079-966-5 © Copyright 2010, Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS), Brussels, and Fundación para las Relaciones Internacionales y el Diálogo Exterior (FRIDE), Madrid. CONTENTS Preface...................................................................................................................... i Executive Summary & Recommendations ........................................................ 1 1. Introduction – Rationale for a European Union Strategy towards Central Asia ..................................................................................................... 8 2. The Political, Economic and Social Landscape in Central Asia.............. 11 2.1 Political regimes, civil society............................................................ 11 2.2 Economic and social conditions ........................................................ 16 2.3 External trade and investment structures........................................ 22 2.4 Security threats and challenges......................................................... 26 2.5 Regional cooperation and tensions................................................... 31 3. Roles of International Actors....................................................................... 36 3.1 Russia.................................................................................................... 36 3.2 China..................................................................................................... 40 3.3 The United States ................................................................................ 43 3.4 Turkey, Iran, Japan, India .................................................................. 47 3.5 International organisations (OSCE/UNDP/NATO/ADB/EBRD/IBRD).................................. 52 4. The European Union in Central Asia......................................................... 58 4.1 Presence of the EU and member states since independence......... 58 4.2 The EU Central Asia strategy since 2007 ......................................... 64 4.2.1 Political dialogue ....................................................................... 65 4.2.2 Human rights and democracy................................................. 66 4.2.3 Rule of law.................................................................................. 72 4.2.4 Education.................................................................................... 74 4.2.5 Energy – oil and gas.................................................................. 77 4.2.6 Water and hydro-energy .......................................................... 81 4.2.7 Transport corridors ................................................................... 84 4.2.8 Security and border management........................................... 87 4.3 EU assistance........................................................................................ 91 4.4 Differentiated policies towards the Central Asian states ............ 102 4.4.1 Kazakhstan ............................................................................... 102 4.4.2 Kyrgyzstan................................................................................ 104 4.4.3 Tajikistan................................................................................... 106 4.4.4 Turkmenistan ........................................................................... 107 4.4.5 Uzbekistan ................................................................................ 109 4.4.6 The regional dimension – from Central Asia to EurAsia... 111 5. Locating Central Asia in a normative global strategy ........................... 115 5.1 Protection from security threats...................................................... 119 5.2 Projection of values ........................................................................... 120 Annexes............................................................................................................... 124 Annex A: Official text of the EU’s Central Asia Strategy, 2007 “The EU and Central Asia: Strategy for a New Partnership”..... 124 Annex B: The EUCAM Expert Working Group...................................... 139 Annex C: List of EUCAM Events.............................................................. 140 Annex D: EUCAM Publications at www.eucentralasia.eu ................... 141 Annex E: About the Authors ..................................................................... 143 List of Tables and Boxes Table 1. Democracy ratings, 2009...................................................................... 13 Table 2. Central Asian GDP growth rates, 2000-2009..................................... 18 Table 3. Central Asian economic structures in 2008* ..................................... 19 Table 4. Percentage of exports to the GDP and exported production.......... 22 Table 5. Exports of the Central Asian countries (2007) .................................. 24 Table 6. Imports of the Central Asian countries (2007).................................. 24 Table 7. Share of Russia, China, and the EU in Central Asian countries’ imports, exports and total trade (2008) (€ million) and their rank .. 26 Table 8. Turkey, Iran, Japan and Indian bilateral trade with Central Asia, 2008 (€ million)........................................................................................ 51 Table 9. Diplomatic representation of the EU in Central Asia as of 2009.... 60 Table 10. Total number of projects in Central Asia by country and by EU member state underway or planned in 2008 .......................... 62 Table 11. EU grant aid to Central Asia in 2007-20010 .................................... 92 Table 12. Central Asia Indicative Programme for Technical Assistance (2011-2013, draft) .................................................................................... 93 Table 13. Commitments and payments to Central Asia under Tacis and DCI programmes, 2004 to 2008 (€ million).................................. 94 Table 14. European Instrument for Democracy and Human Rights (EIDHR) ongoing projects, 2005-2011 (as of 5 March 2009).............. 99 Box 1. EU sanctions on Uzbekistan after Andijan........................................... 69 Box 2. Agenda for the human rights dialogue with Kazakhstan................ 104 Box 3. Agenda for the human rights dialogue with Kyrgyzstan................ 106 Box 4. Agenda for the human rights dialogue with Tajikistan ................... 107 Box 5. Agenda for the human rights dialogue with Turkmenistan ........... 109 Box 6. Agenda for the human rights dialogue with Uzbekistan ................ 111 Box 7. Lisbon Treaty - General Provisions on the EU’s External Action – Art. 21..................................................................................................... 117 Glossary of Abbreviations ADB Asian Development Bank AIDCO Aid and Cooperation Directorate General (European Commission) AKDN Aga Khan Foundation for Development ASEAN Association of Southeast Asian Nations bcm Billions of cubic metres BISTRO EC programme (TACIS BISTRO) for Russia and Central Asia BIT Bilateral Investment Treaty BOMBAF Border Management Badakhshan, Afghanistan BOMCA Border Management Programme for Central Asia BTC Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan oil pipeline BTE Baku-Tbilisi-Erzerum gas pipeline CAAEF Central-Asian American Enterprise Fund CACO Central Asian Cooperation Organization CADAP Central Asia Drug Action Program CAREC Central Asia Regional Economic Cooperation CAREN Central Asia Research and Education Network CEPS Centre for European Policy Studies CIS Commonwealth of Independent States CSTO Collective Security Treaty Organization DCI Development Cooperation Instrument DED Deutscher Entwicklungsdienst (German Development Service) DFID Department for International Development (UK) EaP Eastern Partnership EAPC Euro-Atlantic Partnership Council EBRD European Bank of Reconstruction and Development EC European Communities ECO Economic Cooperation Organization EECCA Eastern Europe, Caucasus and Central Asia EIB European Investment Bank EIDHR European Instrument for Democracy and Human Rights ENPI European Neighbourhood Policy Instrument EU European Union EurAsEC Eurasian Economic Community EUCAM
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