Tana Sub-basin Integrated Land Use Planning and Environmental Study Project

Amhara National Regional State

Bureau of Environmental Protection, Land Administration and Use (BoEPLAU)

Tana sub basin integrated Land Use Planning and Environmental impact Study Project

Technical Report: Land Use Land Cover and Change Detection

(ADSWE, LUPESP/TSB: RS 03/2015)

February, 2015

Bahir Dar

Client: ANRS, Bureau of Environmental Protection, Land Administration and Use (BoEPLAU)

Address:

P.O.Box: 145 Telephone: +251-582-265458 Fax: (058) 2265479 E-mail:Amhara [email protected]

Bahir Dar, Ethiopia

Consultant: Amhara Design & Supervision Works Enterprise (ADSWE)

Address:

P.O.Box: 1921 Telephone: +251-582-181023/ 180638/181201/181254 Fax: (058) 2180550/0560 E-mail:amhara [email protected]

Bahir Dar, Ethiopia

BoEPLAU Land Use Land Cover Assessment Draft Final Report ADSWE Page i Tana Sub-basin Integrated Land Use Planning and Environmental Study Project

LIST OF REPORTS

SECTION I: MAIN REPORT SECTION II: RESOURCE ASSESSMENT REPORTS RS 01: Soil Resource Assessment RS 02: Climatic Resource Assessment RS 03: Land Use Land Cover and Change Detection RS 04: Livestock Production and Range Land Resource Assessment RS 05: Animal Health Assessment

RS 06: Hydrology And Water Resource Assessment RS 07: Forest And Wildlife Assessment RS 08: Strategic Environmental Assessment RS 09: Soil and water conservation Assessment RS 10: Agronomy Report RS 11: Socio Economic Survey SECTION III PLANNING REPORTS PL 01: Approaches, Procedures and Methodology PL 02: Land Utilization Types Description PL 03: Land Use Requirements (LUR) PL 04: Planning Units description PL 05: Land Suitability Evaluation PL 06: Land Use Plan PL 07: Land Management Guideline PL 08: Implementation Guideline SECTION IV ANNEXES Map Albums and Data Base

Notes: 1. RS-Resource assessment reports

2. PL-Planning reports

BoEPLAU Land Use Land Cover Assessment Draft Final Report ADSWE Page ii Tana Sub-basin Integrated Land Use Planning and Environmental Study Project

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Knowledge of the spatial distribution of land cover types is essential for many purposes. Land cover maps are frequently used as a tool for land use planning and natural resource management, and they can assist in targeting and prioritizing risk mitigation activities (Cleve et al., 2008).

The aim of this study is to develop and apply a method to automatically map land cover classes in areas with different environmental and land cover characteristics from VHR image data. Eight subsets of image data with four multi-spectral bands and 2.5 m pixels were used to develop a method for mapping land cover classes using the ERDAS Imagine Change Detection Suite. The detail methodology employed in the Land Cover and Land Use study in Tana sub-basin includes:

 Reviewing previous nationwide, regional and lake Tana area studies,  Recent Satellite imagery collection and preprocessing,  Necessary field data and signature collection,  Post-field Land cover and Land use interpretation, analysis and classification based on field and imagery signatures of objects using ERDAS imaging software,  Verification and validation through review and field data  Final Land Cover and Land Use map preparation,  Data analysis and report writing,

Following the above stages of work, the study identified 8 major Land Cover and Land Use classes and 18 sub-units of which many sub-units were inseparable from units which were closely similar and dominant within their major class. Their analysis has done with one hectare minimum delineable area.

Tana sub-basin has diverse land use and land cover types dominated by cultivated land. From the total area of this study, about 55.71% is covered by cultivated lands followed by water body (19.69%) and built-up areas (7.22%). The afro-alpine and sub-afro-alpine vegetation (0.85%) is constitute the smallest cover in the sub-basin, restricted to Guna mountain and its surroundings.

To assess the land use land cover change occurred in Tana sub-basin, a total of 28 years (1986- 2014), divided in to two periods, were analyzed. The period considers the impacts of long years

BoEPLAU Land Use Land Cover Assessment Draft Final Report ADSWE Page iii Tana Sub-basin Integrated Land Use Planning and Environmental Study Project of Imperial regime and coincides with Derg and EPRDF regimes. Over these years much has changed in the sub-basin but, much also has remains the same.

Three years were selected as a time of change assessment years: 1986, 2000 and 2014. Landsat image for each year is collected and classified based on field ground control points. The initial analysis has made using the classification result. However, for detail interpretation, a transitional matrix analysis has applied.

In spite of the complex influx and the heavy agrarian population pressure in Tana sub-basin, the amount of land use land cover change in the last 28 years wasn't more than 30 percent. The amount of land cover remain unchanged in the first period (1986-2000) was 77.70 percent and it was 75.10 percent in the next period (2000-2014). However, the overall (1986-2014) changes recorded increased a little bit more than 30 percent, which pushed the unchanged down to 68.59 percent.

In general, water body keeps by far the highest percentage of survived cover, having unchanged coverage of 99.36 percent in the first period, 99.77 percent in the second and 99.78 percent in the whole assessment years. Built-up areas are highly transformed and converted to other land cover types, particularly to cultivated land. As usual, cultivated land showed a progressive increase of its percentage of share from 37.42 to 41.48 in the first period and then, to 50.12 percent of the sub-basin in the second period of assessment.

BoEPLAU Land Use Land Cover Assessment Draft Final Report ADSWE Page iv Tana Sub-basin Integrated Land Use Planning and Environmental Study Project

TABLE OF CONTENTS

LIST OF REPORTS ...... II EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ...... III TABLE OF CONTENTS ...... V LIST OF TABLES ...... VII LIST OF FIGURES ...... VIII ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS ...... IX PART I: LAND USE AND LAND COVER...... X 1 INTRODUCTION ...... 1

1.1 BACKGROUND ...... 1 1.2 OBJECTIVES ...... 2 1.2.1 General Objective ...... 2 1.2.2 Specific objectives ...... 2 1.3 SCOPE OF THE STUDY ...... 2 1.4 LIMITATIONS ...... 3 2 LITERATURE REVIEW ...... 4 3 METHODOLOGY ...... 15

3.1 DESCRIPTION OF THE STUDY AREA...... 15 3.2 DATA COLLECTION, PRE-PROCESSING AND ANALYSIS ...... 18 3.2.1 Data collection ...... 18 3.2.2 Pre-processing ...... 18 3.2.3 LULC classification ...... 20 3.2.4 Conversion to Polygons and Elimination ...... 21 3.2.5 Data analysis ...... 22 4 RESULTS AND DISCUSSION ...... 24

4.1 BUILT-UP AREA ...... 24 4.1.1 Towns ...... 25 4.1.2 Farm villages ...... 26 4.2 CULTIVATED LAND ...... 27 4.2.1 Intensively cultivated land ...... 27 4.2.2 Moderately cultivated land ...... 29 4.2.3 Sparsely cultivated land ...... 31 4.3 FOREST LAND ...... 33 4.3.1 Dense natural forest ...... 33 4.3.2 Plantation forest ...... 34 4.4 BUSH AND SHRUB LAND ...... 34 4.4.1 Dense shrub land ...... 35 4.4.2 Open shrub land ...... 35 4.4.3 Degraded wooded shrub land ...... 35 4.5 GRASS LAND ...... 37

BoEPLAU Land Use Land Cover Assessment Draft Final Report ADSWE Page v Tana Sub-basin Integrated Land Use Planning and Environmental Study Project

4.5.1 Open grass land ...... 37 4.5.2 Shrub grass land ...... 37 4.6 WETLANDS ...... 37 4.6.1 Seasonal wetlands ...... 38 4.6.2 Permanent wetlands ...... 38 4.7 WATER BODY...... 39 4.7.1 Lake ...... 39 4.7.2 Rivers ...... 39 4.7.3 Ponds and dams ...... 40 4.8 SUB-AFRO-ALPINE VEGETATION ...... 40 4.9 DISTRIBUTION OF LAND USE AND LAND COVER AT WOREDA LEVEL ...... 44 4.10 DISTRIBUTION OF CULTIVATED LAND ACROSS SLOPE GRADIENTS ...... 46 4.11 DISTRIBUTION OF FOREST LAND ACROSS SLOPE GRADIENTS ...... 46 4.12 THE COVERS CHANGE ASSESSMEN ACROSS THE DIFFERENT PERIODS ...... 49 4.13 TRANSFORMED VERSUS UNCHANGED ...... 50 4.14 TRANSITION MATRIX ANALYSIS ...... 51 5 CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATION ...... 54

5.1 CONCLUSION ...... 54 5.2 RECOMMENDATION ...... 54 6 REFERENC ...... 56 ANNEX I: MAPS AND IMAGES ...... 59

BoEPLAU Land Use Land Cover Assessment Draft Final Report ADSWE Page vi Tana Sub-basin Integrated Land Use Planning and Environmental Study Project

LIST OF TABLES

Table 1: Land use and land cover classification classes ...... 21

Table 2: Existing Land Use and Land Cover classification result (6.4 hectares MDA) ...... 43

Table 3: Existing Land Use and Land Cover classification (1 hectares MDA) ...... 43

Table 4: Distribution of Land use and land cover at woreda level ...... 44

Table 5: Cultivated land distribution across different slopes ...... 46

Table 6: The distribution of forest land along slope gradients ...... 47

Table 7: Summary of LuLc classification ...... 49

Table 8: The amount of each cover remain unchanged ...... 50

Table 9: Transitional matrix of 1986-2000 ...... 52

Table 10: Transitional matrix of 2000-2014 ...... 52

Table 11: Transitional matrix of 1986-2014 ...... 53

BoEPLAU Land Use Land Cover Assessment Draft Final Report ADSWE Page vii Tana Sub-basin Integrated Land Use Planning and Environmental Study Project

LIST OF FIGURES

Figure 1:Saturated condition within wetlands (source: Adrian, 2001) ...... 8

Figure 2: Location map of Tana sub-basin ...... 15

Figure 3: Distribution of built-up areas in Tana sub-basin ...... 25

Figure 4: Farm villages in Guzara area(left), and near FerenjiWuha(right) ...... 26

Figure 5: Intensively cultivated land along Rib River (left) and southwest of Yifag town (right) ...... 28

Figure 6: Cultivated land distribution in Tana sub-basin ...... 28

Figure 7: Intensive cultivated land cover across different slope gradient ...... 29

Figure 8: Moderate cultivation in Lay Armachiho and Agro-forestry system near GindMeteya ...... 30

Figure 9: Moderately cultivated land cover cross different slope gradient ...... 31

Figure 10: Sparse cultivation near Arno town (left) and Lay Armachiho (right) ...... 32

Figure 11: Sparsely cultivated land cover cross different slope gradient ...... 32

Figure 12: Fachi forest on the road to Ebnat woreda (left) and Part of Tara Gedam forest (right) ...... 33

Figure 13: Eucalyptus in Kosoye(top-left), GindMeteya (top-right) and Kimir Dingay town (bottom) ...... 34

Figure 14: Shrub land in Ebnat (left) and Dense shrub land near Tara Gedam (right) ...... 35

Figure 15: Open shrubs in Serawedi, Ebnat ...... 35

Figure 16: Forest cover type across different slope gradient ...... 36

Figure 17: Silage production in Farta Woreda (left) and Grazing land near Alem Saga Foerst (right) ...... 37

Figure 18: GoshoMesk wetland near Woreta Town (left) and Wetland near DengelBer Town (right) ...... 38

Figure 19: Rib Rier (left) and River (right) ...... 40

Figure 20: Selamko Dam near Debre Tabor Town and pond in Fogera ...... 40

Figure 21: All exist in Guna Mountain, South Gondar ...... 41

Figure 22: Existing Land use and Land cover of Tana sub-basin ...... 42

Figure 23: Distribution of forest lands in Tana sub-basin ...... 48

Figure 24: Land use Land cover map of 1986 ...... 59

Figure 25: Land use Land cover map of 2000 ...... 60

Figure 26: Land use Land cover map of 2014 ...... 61

BoEPLAU Land Use Land Cover Assessment Draft Final Report ADSWE Page viii Tana Sub-basin Integrated Land Use Planning and Environmental Study Project

ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS

ADSWE Amhara Design and Supervision Works Enterprise CBPWD Community Based Participatory Watershed Development DEM Digital Elevation Model EMA Ethiopian Mapping Agency ERDAS Earth Resource Data Analysis System FAO Food Agriculture Organization GIS Geographical Information System GPS Global Positioning System LADA Land degradation Assessment in Dry land Areas Land Sat TM Land Satellite Thematic Mapper LUPRD Land Use Planning and Regulatory Department MDA Minimum Delineable Area MoA Ministry of Agriculture NGO None Governmental Organization RUSLE Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation SCRP Soil Conservation Research Project SWAT Soil Water Assessment Tool SWC Soil and Water Conservation T/ha/yr Tons per hectare per year UTM Universal Transverse Mercator VHR Very high spatial resolution

BoEPLAU Land Use Land Cover Assessment Draft Final Report ADSWE Page ix Tana Sub-basin Integrated Land Use Planning and Environmental Study Project

PART I: LAND USE AND LAND COVER

BoEPLAU Land Use Land Cover Assessment Draft Final Report ADSWE Page x Tana Sub-basin Integrated Land Use Planning and Environmental Study Project

1 INTRODUCTION

1.1 Background

Knowledge of the spatial distribution of land cover types is essential for many purposes. Land cover maps are frequently used as a tool for urban planning and natural resource management, and they can assist in targeting and prioritizing risk mitigation activities (Cleve et al., 2008).

Remotely sensed image data are a very valuable source of information for land cover mapping which have been extensively used for this purpose (Foody, 2002; Lucas et al., 2007). In the recent years, a significant research effort has been placed on the analysis of very high spatial resolution (VHR) imagery, mainly due to the increased availability of VHR sensors (Johansen et al., 2008). Therefore, the land use land cover mapping of Tana sub-basin has made using very high resolution (2.5 meters) of SPOT image acquired in November, 2013.

The land use land cover analysis has made using spectral signature image analysis method. However, the classification has supported by object-oriented or segmentation method. After classification has done, there was an intensive editing and modification based on ground truths and observations.

A geographic object-based image analysis was used for this study. Object-based analysis has been successfully adopted for the analysis of VHR imagery in a broad range of scientific disciplines. Encouraging results have been obtained, for example, for mapping urban areas, land cover types, forest fuels, terrestrial oil spills, as well as in change detection analyses and the assessment of the riparian zone condition. Although there are a number of studies that confirm the benefits of the object-based classification of VHR imagery, they are restricted to small study areas; of 1 to 10 Km2. Very little is known about how these methods would behave for larger areas, showing variation in environmental and land cover characteristics. Therefore, in this study limited areas which required detail analysis are further classified by object oriented classification system. The whole classification and analysis has done using image signature analysis method.

These days, Lake Tana region is at the centre of Ethiopia‟s plans for water resource development owing to its huge water resource potential. Consequently, a number of schemes are under development and planned for the future.

BoEPLAU Land Use Land Cover Assessment Draft Final Report ADSWE Page 1 Tana Sub-basin Integrated Land Use Planning and Environmental Study Project

The aim of this study is to develop and apply a method to automatically map land cover classes in areas with different environmental and land cover characteristics from VHR image data. Eight subsets of image data with four multi-spectral bands and 2.5 m pixels were used to develop a method for mapping land cover classes using the ERDAS Imagine Change Detection Suite.

1.2 Objectives

1.2.1 General Objective

The overall objective of the study was to identify and assess the major land use and land cover types and changes, and the problems facing to the existence of land covers so as to plan to the current and potential development of Tana sub-basin.

1.2.2 Specific objectives

(a) To undertake inventory and mapping of the recent Land Use and Land Cover of the Tana sub-basin based on recent Satellite imagery and field verification;

(b) To describe and map the integration of Land use and Land cover with other parameters of the sub-basin and identify potentials and constraints;

(c) To assess whether there have been changes in land use and land cover in the Tana sub- basin; (d) To identify the factors responsible for land use and land cover change in the sub-basin; (e) To produce map and source statistical data for other thematic report of the sub-basin;

1.3 Scope of the Study

This Land Use and Land Cover report presents the findings of Tana sub-basin integrated Land use planning project study through the project life time. The report concentrates on topics of: presentation of methods and procedures used for the study; tools and techniques adopted, data types and their usage, presenting major findings, and recommendation forwarded.

The study followed to the contents of the Terms of Reference (ToR). Thestudy covered parts or the whole of 29 woredas and three administrative zones in Tana sub-basin. These include Banja, FagetaLekuma and Dangila woredas in Awi zone; Sekela, South Achefer, North Achefer, Mecha and BahirDar Zuriaworedas in WestGojjam zone; BahirDar Town in BahirDar Town administration; Dera, Estie, Farta, Libo Kemkem, Ebnat and Fogera woredas in South Gondar

BoEPLAU Land Use Land Cover Assessment Draft Final Report ADSWE Page 2 Tana Sub-basin Integrated Land Use Planning and Environmental Study Project zone; Debre Tabor Town in Debre Tabor Town Administration; Gondar Zuria, Wogera, Lay Armachiho, Dembia, Chilga, Alefa and Takusa in North Gondar zone and Gondar Town in Gondar Town Administration.

During the main field survey, data and information was collected correspondingly with physical field observation by conducting key informant interviewing of elders and technical persons from development agents up to woreda technical experts for further analysis. Based on image-based land cover classification result, agro-climatic zone and slope variability, different land cover types were addressed and more than 225 field data (ground truth and associated descriptions) were collected during the main field survey.

1.4 Limitations

Much detail work has run in this study. A detail pre-field preparation and an intensive reconnaissance survey and detail study were carried out. High amounts of data had collected during the detail survey phase. However, there were limitations during the process. Inaccessibility of the area was the major problem. The data collection was limited to the places where roads are available.

BoEPLAU Land Use Land Cover Assessment Draft Final Report ADSWE Page 3 Tana Sub-basin Integrated Land Use Planning and Environmental Study Project

2 LITERATURE REVIEW

Current Land Management in Lake Tana watersheds: Future challenges and opportunities for Sustainable Land Management,Dr. TaddesseAmsalu

The main objective of this paper was to show the future challenges and opportunities for sustainable land management of Lake Tana and its environs. It believes that a number of barriers and root causes contribute for serous land degradation in the sub-basin. Ever-increasing unwise utilization of resources coupled with land use changes, agricultural intensification, rapid population growth, and urbanization with its close proximity in particular and watershed in general have become sever threats to the long term survival of the lake. Lack of integrated watershed/landscape management and lack of proper land use planning and clarity in the procedures for, and jurisdictions over, resource utilization of the lake and its associated wetlands have also been contributory causes.

The methods applied were analyzing and correlate different studies and data collected by different consultants and organizations. The proceeding paper tries to indicate the danger facing Lake Tana and its surrounding by using the status of land cover and continued land use changes as a result of uncontrolled land fragmentation and the intensive use of sub land division and deforestation have long been encouraging massive soil erosion rates almost in all parts of the watershed. It uses the map and statistical result of Land use Land cover and soil erosion loss rates of Lake Tana basin produced by EPLAUA GIS team in2006.

The research paper noted that variation in landscape and climate play significant role for the existence of various land cover types and ever-changing land use system in the basin. The wide range in altitude has featured the basin with diversified in climatic conditions and physiographic features including extensive flood plains, mountain peaks, plateau, ridges and valleys, gorges, cliffs, hillsides and peninsulas. As a result of such considerable climatic variations, the basin has Weina Dega and Dega agro-climatic zones making it suitable for various types of land use forms and vegetation. From the derived analysis, 11 land cover types with their proportional area are stated. The statistics has supported by map and some of the land cover classes are further elaborated and discussed.

BoEPLAU Land Use Land Cover Assessment Draft Final Report ADSWE Page 4 Tana Sub-basin Integrated Land Use Planning and Environmental Study Project

The potential assessment survey on land use land cover in this document was initiated by investment office of ANRS and conducted by Development Studies Associates (DSA) and Shewel Consult international (SCI) since 2006. The main objectives of the study was to identify opportunities for investment, enhance the participation of private investment/capital based on the region‟s potential resources, and to enhance markets for goods & services through the establishment of various types of projects in the region. Specific objective of the land use land cover study was to undertake inventory and mapping of the recent land cover and land use of the ANRS based on recent satellite imagery and limited field verification.

The methodology employed and approaches and procedures exercised during different stages of the study include pre-field, field and post-field work activities. The methodology includes the following:

 Collecting and reviewing previous nationwide and regional studies including specific area studies within the region;  Recent satellite imagery interpretation and analysis;  Preliminary land cover and land use classification, legend building and mapping;  Field checking, verification/validation and necessary field data and signature collection;  Post-field land cover and land use reinterpretation, analysis and reclassification based on field and imagery signatures of objects using ERDAS imaging software;  Final land cover/land use map preparation and legend building;  Data analysis and report writing;  Field and imagery data analysis and report writing;

Finally, from satellite imagery analysis and limited field survey conducted in the region, the main land cover types are determined, which include built up areas, cultivated lands, Afro-alpine and sub-afro-alpine vegetation, forest, woodland, shrub land, grassland, marshland, exposed surface and water body. The spatial occurrences of these resources, their distribution and the influence imposed on them are analyzed in detail. The interference of human on these natural and manmade covers has examined and interpreted. For instance, built up area, cultivated land and forest are highly influenced by human needs and activities more than other cover types. Built up area and cultivated lands are highly man made land features while forests in the region are partially man made and partially natural. Built up areas and cultivated lands are established at places of natural vegetation including forest lands at the expense of the natural fauna and flora of the region.

BoEPLAU Land Use Land Cover Assessment Draft Final Report ADSWE Page 5 Tana Sub-basin Integrated Land Use Planning and Environmental Study Project

Land Use changes occurred in the ANRS in the last ten years period are mainly due to growing needs of the farmers for cropping and actions by the government to conserve or control natural resources on steep slopes by establishing soil and stone bunds and planting trees. Allocation of communal grasslands to investors especially in the plain areas by the government has also brought land use changes. Croplands have expanded into communal grazing lands and into steep side slopes of gorges, valleys and hills.

Following the above stages of work, the study identified 12 major land cover/land use classes and 37 sub-units, which have closesimilarity and some are inseparable. The major land cover classes are given in table 1 with their corresponding areas of land in hectare and their extent in percent in the ANRS.

This regional study has important inputs for the Tana sub-basin Land Use Planning detail study. On one hand, it indicates significant activities to be taken at pre-field, on-field and post-field stages of the study. Starting from review of previous studies, it stated important tasks up to the interpretation of the final results. On the other hand, it able to identify and summarized major land cover classes with appropriate naming.

The study also identifies the major land use change occurred, the major causes for the recorded change and observed land use conflicts in the region. These results are very important indicators for land use planning and to device and implement mitigation measures against the continuing land degradation and resources deterioration.

Object-Oriented Image Classification Methods, PENNSTATE, College of Earth and Mineral Sciences, John A. Dutton e-Education Institute (webpage)

The objective of this literature is to compare the traditional pixel-based classification and the recent object-based classification systems so as to update the methods we apply to the land use land cover analysis. In Tana sub-basin land use planning, we made a shift from pixel-based to object-oriented segment-based classification due to the large scale study applied. Object-oriented segment-based classification is an approach that classifies remotely-sensed images and ancillary data based on these objects rather than individual pixels. It is highly suited for applications that utilize medium to high resolution satellite imagery and is a useful addition for those mapping land cover and monitoring land change. It includes segmentation of pixels in to homogenous groups.

BoEPLAU Land Use Land Cover Assessment Draft Final Report ADSWE Page 6 Tana Sub-basin Integrated Land Use Planning and Environmental Study Project

The methods and algorithms involved object-oriented image classification includes identification of image objects, or segments, that are spatially contiguous pixels of similar texture, color, and tone (Green and Congalton, 2012). This approach allows for consideration of shape, size, and context as well as spectral content. Relationships between objects can play an important role in their identification and classification. Object-oriented methods are often more effective than pixel-based methods when classifying high-resolution imagery, because as spatial resolution increases, the more variability there may be in the spectral content of individual pixels all belonging to the same class. Considering groups of pixels as objects helps to overcome the increased complexity of a high-resolution scene due to shadows, changes in vegetation density, or the similar spectral signatures of dissimilar features (i.e. asphalt roof shingles and asphalt road surfaces).

Objects are a more powerful classification unit than pixels because they can be delineated to correspond with physical features in the landscape' pixels, on the other hand, are arbitrary "boxes" of spectral content. Object-oriented classifiers more closely mimic the elements of manual interpretation that were studied earlier in the course. Objects created by segmentation have sizes and shapes that can be quantified, as can the distance of one type of object from another (for example, a pixel containing the spectral signature may be very close to a road centerline or within a building footprint, as indicated by ancillary data.

Wetlands of Ethiopia: Proceedings of a seminar on the resources and status of in Ethiopia’s wetlands; Wetlands, gender and poverty: some elements in the development of sustainable and equitable wetland management; Ethiopian Wetlands Research Programme. Adrian Wood

Wetlands is a term which has been developed to describe a range of situations where land is affected by water. As sited by Adrian wood, Davies indicated the importance of water in the following definition of wetlands: “Wetlands are areas where water is the primary factor controlling the environment and the associated plant and animal life. They occur where the water table is at or near the surface of the land, or where the land is covered by shallow water.” (Adrian, 2001) He also noted the different components of wetlands considering always water is a dominant feature of wetlands.

BoEPLAU Land Use Land Cover Assessment Draft Final Report ADSWE Page 7 Tana Sub-basin Integrated Land Use Planning and Environmental Study Project

“Wetland are areas of marsh, fen, peatland or water, whether natural or artificial, permanent or temporary, with water that is static or flowing, fresh, brackish or salt, including areas of marine water the depth of which at low tide does not exceed six metres.” (Adrian, 2001)

Wetland wet season water level

Seasonally saturated

Permanently saturated

dry season water level Figure 1:Saturated condition within wetlands (source: Adrian, 2001)

The note put in the title Wetlands, gender and poverty: some elements inthe development of sustainable and equitablewetland managementby Adrian Wood in theProceedings of a seminar on the resources and status of in Ethiopia‟s wetlandsindicatesthe existence of many types of wetlands in Ethiopia. If theInternational Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN, 1996) wetland typology is used, Ethiopia has representatives of almost all wetland types, with the exception of coastal ones. For instance, it has riverine wetlands of a seasonal and permanent nature along many of its rivers, palustrine wetlands (swamps and marshes), lacustrine wetlands around lakes, montane peat bog wetlands, as well as man-made wetlands around dams.

Wettlands of Tana sub-basin, in most cases, are estuaries - where rivers meet the lake, riverine - land periodically inundated by river overtopping (IUCN, 1997), lacustrine- wetlands around lakes and palustrine – where there is more or less permanent water (Adrian, 2001).

Improved Water and Land Management in the Ethiopian Highlands: Its Impact on Downstream stakeholders Dependent on the Blue Nile; Intermediate Results Dissemination Workshop, February 5-6, 2009, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia. IWMI

Lake Tana is the largest water body in Tana sub-basin. Lake Tana occupies a shallow depression (mean depth 9 m and maximum depth 14 m) in Ethiopian plateau located at an altitude of 1786

BoEPLAU Land Use Land Cover Assessment Draft Final Report ADSWE Page 8 Tana Sub-basin Integrated Land Use Planning and Environmental Study Project masl. It is the largest freshwater lake in Ethiopia with catchment area of more than 15,000 km2(IWMI, 2009).

Lake Tana is a natural reservoir for the Blue Nile River which has huge potential for hydropower and irrigation development. Water resource development is being encouraged by the government to stimulate economic growth and reduce poverty in the area. According to the study of International Water Management Institute, if the full future development occurs, on average, 2,207 GWhyof powercould be generated and 548 Mm3yof water could be supplied to irrigation schemes.However, the mean annual water level of the lake would be lowered by 0.33 meters (m)with a consequent decrease of 23 km2in the average surface area of the lake. Besideshaving adverse ecological impacts, this would also have significant implications forshipping and the livelihoods of many local people (IWMI, 2009).

Although the lake is fed by more than 66 rivers and streams, 93% of the water comesfrom just four major rivers: Gilgel Abbay, Ribb, Gumara and Megech.

The surrounding of Lake Tana is one of the most populated areas in Ethiopia. About 904,482 people (CSA, 2007) lived on about 305,885.33 hectares or 3,058.85 square kilo meters of land (excluding Lake Tana). As a result, the population density of the area reaches to 295 persons per km2. The total population in the lake catchment was estimated to be in excess of 3 million in 2007 (CSA, 2003). The largest city on the lake shore, Bahir Dar, has a population of over 200,000 and at least 15,000 people are believed to live on the 37 islands in the lake. The majority of the population lives in rural areas and their livelihoods are mainly dependent on Rainfed agriculture (Seleshi and et al, 2009).

As sited in the study of Nile Trans-boundary Environmental Action Project of Nile Basin Initiative, Alemayehu described that the land-use pattern of the Lake Tana sub-basin depicts an area which is heavily populated and cultivated (Alemayehu, 2006). The Initiative study further described that different crop types are produced in the various agro-climatic conditions with cereal production the dominant use of the cultivated area. Due to this land-use pattern, soil erosion is inevitable and appears to be one of the biggest problems in the area in terms of siltation of Lake Tana. The direct manifestations of land degradation, such as forest clearance, overgrazing, erosion, siltation and loss of soil fertility have already been the subject of much analytical research with inadequate application of many technical solutions. However, neither the

BoEPLAU Land Use Land Cover Assessment Draft Final Report ADSWE Page 9 Tana Sub-basin Integrated Land Use Planning and Environmental Study Project indirect impacts nor the root causes of land degradation have had the same level of analysis (Nile Basin Initiative, 2009).

The Nile Basin Initiative Studies (2009) also stated the impact of urban expansion and industries development along the shoreline on Lake Tana. Expansion of Bahir Dar and other cities in the Amhara Region is putting pressure on natural resources and land with resultant compromises for biodiversity conservation and food security. The major industries claiming land on the shores of Lake Tana include hotels, food factories, a textile factory, and two tanneries; in each case there has been poor integration of environmental concerns with development needs.

The study also depicts People exploit the natural resources as a means of survival. This is putting pressure on the few remaining patches of the already impoverished forests and grassy fields, which may give way to further conversion to agriculture given the lack of alternatives. In the process, biodiversity is being lost, wetlands are drained and products such as papyrus and grasses are harvested for domestic purposes. These activities are enhancing sediment deposition around the alluvial plains and the sloping landscape.

The integrity of the ecological systems of the lake and its adjoining wetlands are increasingly being subjected to profound impacts upon the biological, chemical and physical processes essential to maintaining the structures and functions of the ecosystems. Particularly, ever- increasing unwise utilization of resources coupled with land use changes, agricultural intensification, rapid population growth, and urbanization with its close proximity in particular and watershed degradation in general have become sever threats to the long term survival of the lake. Lack of integrated watershed/landscape management and lack of proper land use planning and clarity in the procedures for, and jurisdictions over, resource utilization of the lake and its associated wetlands have also been contributory causes. If the current trend of environmental degradation is not halted running a sustainable tourism development in Lake Tana and its environs will be severely threatened.

Wetlands and its threat

Wetlands are dynamic systems, continually undergoing natural change due to subsidence, drought, sea-level rise, or infilling with sediment or organic material. Thus, many wetlands are only temporary features of the landscape and will be expected to change and eventually disappear, whilst new wetlands are created elsewhere. Direct and indirect human activity has considerably altered the rate of change of wetlands. To some degree, we have created new

BoEPLAU Land Use Land Cover Assessment Draft Final Report ADSWE Page 10 Tana Sub-basin Integrated Land Use Planning and Environmental Study Project artificial wetlands by building reservoirs, canals and flood storage areas. However, the loss of wetlands has far outstripped the gains.

The view that wetlands are wastelands, resulting from ignorance or misunderstanding of the value of the goods and services available, has led to their conversion to intensive agricultural, industrial or residential uses. Individual desires of farmers or developers have been supported by government policy and subsidies. In addition to direct action on the land, river engineering schemes have diverted water away from wetlands, as it has been believed that this water is wasted in the wetland or at least has a lower value than its use for rice irrigation upstream. Some organisations still look upon wetlands only in terms of their potential to provide farm land to feed an ever-expanding population, which normally requires alteration of the natural system. Wetlands may also be lost by pollution, waste disposal, mining or groundwater abstraction.

The amount of wetland lost is difficult to quantify, since the total area of wetland in the world is uncertain. There are, however, some figures for individual countries which indicate the scale of the problem. The United States has lost some 87 million hectares (54%) of its original wetlands (Tiner, 1984), primarily to agricultural production. In Portugal some 70% of the Western Algarve has been converted for agriculture and industrial development (Pullan, 1988). The European Union policy is that there should be no further wetland loss or degradation. In the Philippines, some 300,000 hectares (67%) of the country‟s mangrove resources were lost in the 60 years from 1920 to 1980 (Zamora, 1984).

Wetlands are ecosystems or units of the landscape that are found on the interface between land and water. While water is a major factor of wetland definition (Ramsar Convention Bureau, 1997), soils, vegetation and animal life also contribute to their unique characteristics (Koetze, 1996; Howard, 1995; Roggeri, 1995). Wetlands are distributed all over the globe and are estimated to cover about 6% of the earth‟s surface (Maltby, 1986) – some 5.7 million km2 (WCMC, 1992). Although Africa is best known for its savannahs and hot deserts, 1% of its surface area (345,000 km2) is covered by wetlands (Finlayson and Moser, 1991).

Wetlands are part of complex environmental and socio-economic systems. They are linked through the hydrological system to upstream catchments and downstream areas. What happens upstream may affect a wetland, while what happens in a wetland will affect people living downstream. However, wetlands may also be influenced by broader environmental changes, such as deforestation and climate change, and by socioeconomic influences, including national

BoEPLAU Land Use Land Cover Assessment Draft Final Report ADSWE Page 11 Tana Sub-basin Integrated Land Use Planning and Environmental Study Project economic policies and local market conditions. The influences and impacts at different levels mean that in order to manage wetlands effectively the communities, who undertake their day to day management, and the higher level planners, who address policy and regional development, need to give attention to a wide range of causal influences and linkages.

Land use within both the wetland and its catchment influence the ecological functioning of the wetland and the products it produces (Abbot and Afework, 2001). Research on wetlands in Illubabor suggests that the key external influences on this system are government policy and climate, especially rainfall, whilst the key internal influences are catchment tree cover, population density, indigenous knowledge and local policies.

The Dembya, Fogera and Kunzila plains form extensive wetlands in the north, east and southwest, respectively of the lake during the rainy season. As a result of the high heterogeneity in habitats, the lake and surrounding riparian areas support high biodiversity and are listed in the top 250 lake regions of global importance for biodiversity. About a quarter of the 65 fish species found in the lake are endemic. The lake contains eighteen species of barbus fish (i.e. of the Cyprinidaefamily) and the only extended cyprinid species flock in Africa (Eshete, 2003; Seleshi and et al, 2009).

The Welala and Shesher wetlands are shrinking at an alarming rate, mainly because of unsustainable farming practices and a huge irrigation project on Ribb River which is at presently under construction. Farming practices include draining and pumping of water for irrigation and expansion of farmland at the cost of the wetlands. The construction of a dam in Ribb River prevents overflow from Ribb River into the wetlands and disrupts the connection with Lake Tana which is vital for the survival of these two wetlands. We conclude that the Welala and Shesher Wetlands are valuable wetlands which need urgently protection (Negash et al, 2011).

In some places, close to the lake shore, there is extensive growth of papyrus (Cyprus papyrus). The littoral zone (depth 0-4 m) of the lake, which comprises water-logged swamps, the shallow lake margins and the mouths of rivers feeding the lake, is relatively small, covered papyrus and alluvial deposits (Eshete, 2003).

Even, the wetlands at the outlet of Abay River have seriously deteriorated. A study conducted by Bahir Dar Blue Nile River Millennium Park Office of Bahir Dar City Administration reveals that wetlands bordering the town along the river Abay are being diminishing (BDBNRMP, 2010).

BoEPLAU Land Use Land Cover Assessment Draft Final Report ADSWE Page 12 Tana Sub-basin Integrated Land Use Planning and Environmental Study Project

According to this study, many areas of wetlands around the outlet of river Abay from Lake Tana, Kebele 8 and Addis Alem kebeles being diminishing. Alarmingly, it calls for urgent deterring mechanism for unrestricted habitat use pursuing seasonal fluctuation of water volume and soil fertility due to silt accumulation and investment beyond the natural potential and use this ecosystem only competing for the benefit of proximity to Bahir Dar and river Abay. Other areas at the mid and lower course of Abay river with in the park an extensive area of wetland being used for Chat and Sugar Cane production and few for vegetables and fruit crops which inter devastative for natural habitats and ecosystems which is not compensated by returns from this system of habitats use (BDBNRMP, 2010).

Challenges on vegetation

Major causes of threat on habitats and vegetation are Poverty and Strong Dependency on Nature, Lack of Suitable Management Systems, and Increased Population and Resource Use. Inequality in Management and Benefit, Low Level of Improved Technologies Utilization and Fall to Valuing Natural Environment in the Past had minor effects on degradation of habitats and diversity.

Causes for threats on woody plants and habitats largely emanated from the long year uncontrolled harvest of forest resources strongly linked with traditional pattern of life along the river, excessive dependency on nature coupled with misuse of habitats and plants.

Multiple pressures and threats analyses indicated that even though priority pressure and threats are prevalent in all forest patches with variable scale there is a great opportunity to rehabilitate both threatened habitats and vegetation to their natural state. Permanence or rehabilitation could take midterm to long-term that depends on the management effort and suitable decision management authorities.

The only preserved and undisturbed forest in this area is a remnant dry Afro-montane forest (1,238.8ha) of Zegie Peninsula. This is because of the specific economic engagement of the people; on forest coffee and fish based livelihood (World Bank, 2003). However, the harmony of the settlement with the forest biodiversity seems to be not long-lasting. The natural resources of Zegie have been under continuous encroachment and pressure because of an expanding human population demand inside and around the peninsula.

BoEPLAU Land Use Land Cover Assessment Draft Final Report ADSWE Page 13 Tana Sub-basin Integrated Land Use Planning and Environmental Study Project

The lack of effective resources conservation plan and alternative livelihood activities, insufficient facilitation of tourism infrastructure, accommodations and services coupled with traditional way of resource management, limited efforts to implement good management and lack of sustainable challenge reduction practices to the area are reasonable causes of Zegie natural resource threats

BoEPLAU Land Use Land Cover Assessment Draft Final Report ADSWE Page 14 Tana Sub-basin Integrated Land Use Planning and Environmental Study Project

3 METHODOLOGY

3.1 Description of the study area

Tana sub basin is found in the Amhara region. Geographically, the basin is located between North latitude 1210669m – 1411084m and East longitude 254549 - 416363m. Its elevation is ranging 1327 - 4109 meter above sea level. The basin has a total area of 1,589,654.98 hectares. It is one of the most important potential areas for all development in Amhara region. The largest lake in Ethiopia, Lake Tana is found in the sub basin.

Parts or the whole of 29 Woredas and three administrative zones are encompasses in the sub- basin. These include Banja, Fageta Lekuma and Dangila Woredas in Awi zone; Sekela, South Achefer, North Achefer, Mecha and Bahir Dar Zuria Woredas in West Gojjam zone; BahirDar Town in BahirDar Town administration; Dera, Estie, Farta, Libo Kemkem, Ebinat and Fogera Woredas in South Gondar zone; Debre Tabor Town in Debre Tabor Town Administration; Gondar Zuria, Wogera, Lay Armachiho, Dembia, Chilga, Alefa and Takusa in North Gondar zone and Gondar Town in Gondar Town Administration

Figure 2: Location map of Tana sub-basin

BoEPLAU Land Use Land Cover Assessment Draft Final Report ADSWE Page 15 Tana Sub-basin Integrated Land Use Planning and Environmental Study Project

Human population in Tana Sub Basin is generally homogeneous linguistically and consists of the main ethnic families of Amhara. According to CSAs 2007 census and Woredas, the study area has a total population of 3158247 with male 1587394and female 1570853 this is about 16 percent of the total regional population. The very big proportion or 76.9 percent of the population of the area is living in rural areas where as the remaining 23.1 percent are concentrated in urban and semi urban centers. The settlement pattern of the study area is dominantly scattered and the average population density of the area is 200 persons per km square.

The sub basin is endowed with eight different agro-climatic zones namely, moist tepid, sub- humid tepid, moist cool, moist warm, moist cold, moist very cold, sub-humid cool and sub-humid cold. Most of the project area (79.4%) is found in moist tepid agro climatic zone followed by sub- humid tepid, moist cool and sub-humid cool which account for 12%, 5% and 3% respectively. The area is dominated by one main rainy season, from June to September and one dry season between October and May. The rainfall distribution of area is controlled by the northward and southward movement of the inter-tropical convergence zone (ITCZ) resulting in a single rainy season

River Megech, Rib, Gumara and Gilgel Abbay are the main permanent water resources in the Basin, However, the Megech and Rib rivers sometimes dries-up at downstream during the dry seasons. Both Rivers used to supply water for human and livestock consumption and also for crop irrigation. The others seasonal rivers originate from the upper in the mountainous range in the north and in hilly zones in the inter-riverine area of river Megech and Rib are also other sources of water. River Infranz, River Jema, River Awra Arda, River Derba, River Arno-Garno, River Shine, River Selamko, River Dengura are some of prominent seasonal rivers found in the study area.

The sub basin is one among the other agrarian areas of the nation, where by Agricultural field crop production is predominantly prevailing. With this respect, Agriculture production is the mainstay for the livelihood of people in the sub basin. Beyond the presence of huge arable land resource, the sub basin is adequately endowed with a wide variety of indigenous plants with a unique heritage of diverse germplasm of vegetables, fruits, oil crops, forages, tubers, cereals and pulses. Teff, Noug, safflower, rape seed, caster bean, Gesho, are among indigenous plants grown in the basin. Maize, sorghum, beans, barley finger millet, wheat, chickpea and others are commonly grown crops.

BoEPLAU Land Use Land Cover Assessment Draft Final Report ADSWE Page 16 Tana Sub-basin Integrated Land Use Planning and Environmental Study Project

Livestock constitutes a major part of the farming system next to crop production, providing draft power, producing milk and conferring a certain degree of security against crop failures. However, performance in the production of the major food commodities of livestock origin has been poor compared with other African countries, including neighboring Kenya (IFAD/EPLAUA, 2007). Inadequate feed and nutrition, widespread diseases and poor health, poor breeding stock, and infrastructure have been cited as major constraints affecting livestock performance.

Forest resource offer the main energy supply is one of the most dynamic economic activity in sub basin; it also contribute to sustainable agricultural systems; and are a source for agro-biodiversity and a major storehouse for carbon and water. However, Forest resource in the sub basin is being depleted, biodiversity is declining, timber and non-timber forest products and services are weakened, and most of the important biological endemic species, that have a potential to sustain the livelihood in the basin, are now vulnerable.

The sub basin is rich in fish and wetland resources. However the fishery of Lake Tana is at an early stage of development due to low level of technology employed by fishery man and a lack of marketing facilities. On other hand the wetlands resources also declining due to ever-increasing population in the study area coupled with inappropriate land use and wetland management system.

The position of the basin in its cultural heritage is remarkable. For example, Some 37 islands & 21 monasteries surviving remnants of a very old meditative tradition have been used as safe keeping places for the religious relics and art treasures during the times of trouble. And these monasteries from all corners of the country have architectural significances, beautiful mural paintings and icons, as well as numerous strikingly illustrated parchments and intricately decorated processional and hand crosses. It is also house myriads of treasures, beautiful mural paintings, icons, parchment manuscripts, scrolls and emperors assets. However, efforts and progress made on archaeological searches for historical values in the area are still at infancy. As a result, most of the attractions including those that have been declared world heritage by UNESCO have long suffered from severe deterioration by both natural calamities and human interferences

BoEPLAU Land Use Land Cover Assessment Draft Final Report ADSWE Page 17 Tana Sub-basin Integrated Land Use Planning and Environmental Study Project

3.2 Data collection, Pre-processing and Analysis

To do the Land Use and Land Cover and cover change assessment of Tana sub-basin, a number of activities were takes place.

First, three years were selected as a time of change assessment years: 1986, 2000 and 2014. The years are selected based on assessment of the occurrence of events. The year 1986 is the mid of Derg reign which is a year after long years of population pressure and the resulting severe land cover change due to expansion of cultivated land and deforestation. This year is taken as the starting point of change assessment. The year 2000 is the after math of the great cover change occurred during government transition time of 1991 and the following years. 2014 is the most recent year at which we can evaluate the overall changes occur and different mitigation measures applied by current government.

Two periods, each has a length of 14 years, are assessed through this change detection: 1986- 2000 and 2000-2014 and, the whole 28 years, since 1986 up to 2014, has taken as a third assessment period.

3.2.1 Data collection

SPOT 5 images acquired in November, 2013 were used for this classification. It is collected from NABU project purchased for Lake Tana area Biosphere reserve study. The image has 2.5 meters ground resolution with four band width.

There are areas which can't be covered by the SPOT image and parts of the image covered by cloud and its shadow. These areas are filled with 2013 Landsat 8 images of the same season.

3.2.2 Pre-processing

The SPOT 5 images have already had preprocessing tasks. The only task has done is identifying the areas of the sub-basin which has not covered by the SPOT images and which part of the image has cloud cover and its shadow. And then, subset only the required parts of the images using 1km buffer study area boundary shape file. 1km radius addition of area around the boundary shape file very important to avoid the loss or gain of some areas of the imagesduring the processing.

However, the Landsat 8 images required preprocessing tasks step-by-step. First, the downloaded zipped images are extracted. Next, the bands are layer-stacked together. The layer-stacked scenes

BoEPLAU Land Use Land Cover Assessment Draft Final Report ADSWE Page 18 Tana Sub-basin Integrated Land Use Planning and Environmental Study Project are mosaic together. The Landsat is clipped out using buffered boundary. The clipping process is done using ERDAS Imagine 9.1 subset tool.

The Landsat TM images were registered to UTM coordinate system with root mean square errors of less than 0.5 pixels. Because of the impacts of atmosphere on short wavelengths and high correlation between the visible bands, TM band 1 (blue band) was not used during image classification. Instead, Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and Normalized Difference Moisture Index (NDMI) derived from TM images were incorporated into the classification procedure in order to assist distinction of different vegetation types. The images were then stratified into urban and rural. An unsupervised classification was implemented for individual portions separately. According to the complexity of landscape of individual portions and their areas, diffident numbers of clusters were produced. For example, rural area generated 100 spectral clusters and urban portion generated, 30-40 clusters. The spectral features of different Land use land cover types were analyzed and aerial photographs and previous LULC thematic maps were used to assist the assignment of meaningful class for each cluster.

Eight Land use land types were identified. The whole land cover map for each year was merged by adding individual portions together. For the obliviously misclassified areas, post-refinement was conducted by manual corrections. Finally, six land-cover types were merged. Areas and percentages of each land-cover type were calculated.

The post-classification comparison approach was used to detect Land use land cover changes. Change matrixes were produced by comprising Land use land cover maps between two years. Land use land cover change areas were calculated and spatial distribution and trajectories of changes were analyzed (Pan and Li, 2007).

Landsat TM images of scene p169r052, p170r052 and p170r051 of year 1986, 2000 and 2014 and thematic maps showing the roads, towns, and drainage systems were used for the study. Remote sensing software: Erdas Imagine version 2010 and ArcGIS version 10.1 were used for the processing of the images. The raw satellite image was converted from Tag Image file format (Tiff) to img format using Erdas in order to be compatible with other Erdas Imagine files. The layers were stacked and subset to delineate the sub-basin for classification. The UTM Zone 37N Coordinate on the WGS 84 was used to geocode the imported image. This was followed by georeferencing using the Traverse Mercator projection with reference units in meters to allow compatible positioning of other themes such as roads, towns and drainage which were already

BoEPLAU Land Use Land Cover Assessment Draft Final Report ADSWE Page 19 Tana Sub-basin Integrated Land Use Planning and Environmental Study Project digitized in that format. Then, the digitized map showing the roads, towns, drainage and the outline of the sub-basin was overlaid on the georeferenced image.

Band combination of red, blue and green was used to display the raw images in standard color composites. The spectral band combination for displaying images often varies with different applications (Trotter, 1998). This was necessary for the visual interpretation of the images. A band combination of red, blue and green (RGB) is often used to display images in standard color composites for land use and vegetation mapping (Trotter, 1998). In this study, the Landsat TM images were displayed in a band combination of 1, 2 and 3 (red, blue and green), which is standard for visual interpretation of vegetation mapping in the tropics (Prakash and Gupta 1998; Trotter, 1998).

3.2.3 LULC classification

The Land use and Land cover classification has done with band combination of 4, 5, and 3 using ERDAS Imagine software.The study was conducted based on base maps prepared at office. It was a land use land cover classification base map supported with different shape files like woreda and kebele administrative boundaries, rivers, roads and 50 meter interval contours.

The survey was done by considering representative land cover types in different agro-climatic zones and slopes that include administrative zones, woredas and kebeles falling in the development corridor. During the field survey period, activities like field verification of mapping units and collection of field data on land form, altitude, major & minor land cover/land use types, crops, vegetation, soils, erosion status, management practices, slopes, land use changes & conflicts, environmental problems that would affecting current land use and land cover type, detail characterization of potentials, limitations and present management condition and field level suitability evaluations has been carried out based on prepared data collection format. Attribute data and land cover signatures were collected on each selected observation sites.

Field data collection formats or checklists were prepared, which includes detail major and sub- unit land cover classification types, to assess and analyse every types of covers found in the sub- basin. The recorded cover types are supported with photographs captured at each cover type. Some open-ended questions were used for focus Group Discussion (FGD) in areas where further information is required.

BoEPLAU Land Use Land Cover Assessment Draft Final Report ADSWE Page 20 Tana Sub-basin Integrated Land Use Planning and Environmental Study Project

The minimum delineable area (MDA) of Tana sub-basin integrated land use planning study is 6.4 hectares considering 1:20,000 scale of the study. However, this classification result is based on one hectare minimum delineable area in order to have significant area of important land cover types which are detriment for the study.

Table 1: Land use and land cover classification classes No Sub-units Major covers No Remark 1 Town Road, Airport, Quarry

2 Farm village Built-up area 1 3 Intensively cultivated land 4 Moderately cultivated land

5 Sparsely cultivated land Cultivated land 2 6 Dense natural forest

7 Plantation forest Forest 3 8 Dense shrub land 9 Open shrub land

10 Degraded wooded shrub land Bush and shrub land 4 11 Open grass land

12 Shrub grass land Grass land 5 13 Seasonal wetland

14 Permanent wetland Wetland 6 15 Lake 16 Rivers

17 Ponds and Dams Water body 7 18 Sub-afro-alpine vegetation Afro alpine and sub-afro- alpine vegetation 8

3.2.4 Conversion to Polygons and Elimination

Probably, this is the difficult task in Land Use and Land Cover classification. The final classification result is converted to vector format using ArcGIS software. After conversion, about thousands of millions of polygons are produced in each scene. This is a huge amount to eliminate those polygons which are less than the minimum delineable areas of the study (6.4ha). Therefore, it requires disintegrate each scene in to pieces so as to make manageable size. Each scene parted up to 50 pieces and elimination has done and finally, re-mosaic to the original scene.

BoEPLAU Land Use Land Cover Assessment Draft Final Report ADSWE Page 21 Tana Sub-basin Integrated Land Use Planning and Environmental Study Project

3.2.5 Data analysis

The collected GPS data will used as a signature (representative of each cover type) and become sample for the final classification of the land use land cover. The type of classification will apply is object-based and unsupervised classification types in combination using ERDAS Imagine 2010 and ENVI 5.0 software. First, the SPOT image will segmented in to different classes only based on shapes, supported by spectral values. Finally, the experts assigns class names by using their background knowledge and interpreting from the original image.

The additional data collected by checklists and from FGD will used to verify, analyze and further interpret the classification results. The photographs captured at each site become important supporting documents.

The most commonly used land change detection methods includes i) image overlay ii) classification comparisons of land cover statistics iii) change vector analysis iv) principal component analysis and v) image rationing and vi) the differencing of normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) (Duadze, 2004).

The method used in this research was that of classification comparison of land cover statistics. This method was adopted because the study sought to find out the quantitative changes in the areas of the various land cover categories. Using the post-classification procedure, the area statistic for each of the land cover classes was derived from the classifications of the images for each date (1986, 2000 and 2014) separately, using functions in the Erdas Imagine software. The areas covered by each land cover type for the various periods were compared. Then the directions of the changes (positive or negative) in each land cover type 1986 and 2000, 2000 and 2014, and 1986 and 2014 were determined.

ERDAS IMAGINE provides two tools for change detection under the Image Interpreter button. From Utilities, the Change Detection operation allows for two continuous images as input. The user can define a threshold value for the change a single pixel must have from one year to the next to be marked as change. A “highlight” file will then be created, marking pixels that have increased or decreased more than the threshold value. Those highlighted pixels could represent areas where a new building has been constructed or a forested area clear cut. The tool is meant to give a quick look at the amount of change between the two dates. The output of this operation is rarely useable as a GIS layer. It gives the high-level view of change for an area so that the amount of effort to capture the change can be more reasonably estimated.

BoEPLAU Land Use Land Cover Assessment Draft Final Report ADSWE Page 22 Tana Sub-basin Integrated Land Use Planning and Environmental Study Project

The function does not differentiate between the types of change or perform any pre-processing to eliminate false positives due to problems with the data (such as radiometric differences, mis- registration, clouds, etc.). For this type of change detection, the IMAGINE DeltaCue module is more appropriate.

The Matrix operation from the GIS Analysis menu allows two thematic images or vector files of different years to be compared. By comparing two classified or vector sets of data, you eliminate false positives due to radiometric differences. If, for example, two simple classified images were fed into the process and had three classes in each file of water, bare ground and forest, the resulting file from the Matrix operation is a thematic image where classes such as „was water is now water‟ shows no change from year one to year two. Other classes like „was forest is now bare ground‟ would show areas that had been clear-cut.

BoEPLAU Land Use Land Cover Assessment Draft Final Report ADSWE Page 23 Tana Sub-basin Integrated Land Use Planning and Environmental Study Project

4 RESULTS AND DISCUSSION

This classification includes eight major covers and eighteen sub-units. The standard used to determine the number and type of covers is the classification system used by Amhara National Regional State Investment Bureau. The consultants which handle the then study was Shawel Consultant and Development Study Associates (DSA). Some amount of modification has made to relate the observed land use and land cover types of Tana sub-basin. The investment bureau used 12 major and 38 sub-unit cover types for the classification. For Tana sub-basin, it is limited to 8 major covers and 18 sub-units.

4.1 Built-up area

The built-up area constituted towns and farm villages which were recognized by patterns of constructions, trees grown around homesteads and along roadsides and grasslands left for livestock and sometimes as playing ground. Built-up areas were mainly recognized along main and secondary roads in cases of towns.In cases of farm villages, they were common on foot slopes of valley sides and on foot slopes of hills and sometimes on flat top of hills. Farm villages were also recognized being scattered in cultivated areas of various intensity classes.

The mapped unit classes of built-up areas occupy about 87,829.29ha of land area which accounts for about 5.56% of the entire area of the Tana sub-basin. These units resembling to different land cover types and because of their small size to be mapped at 1:20,000 scale were difficult.

BoEPLAU Land Use Land Cover Assessment Draft Final Report ADSWE Page 24 Tana Sub-basin Integrated Land Use Planning and Environmental Study Project

Figure 3: Distribution of built-up areas in Tana sub-basin

4.1.1 Towns

Towns are areas which have manmade construction including buildings, houses, roads, airports and quarry sites. According to this classification, all known areas within the administrative boundary can't be taken as town; rather there must be real patterns of construction and human intervention like buildings and roads.

There are more than 30 known towns in Tana sub-basin. Some of them Gondar, Debre Tabor, Woreta, Merawi, Addis Zemen, Koladiba, Gorgora, Dangla, Merawi, Durbete, Hamusit, Gishe Abay,Yifag, AlemBer, Infraz, Maksegnit, Chuahit, DengelBer, Delgi, EseyDebir, Kunzila, Kimir Dengay, Ayimba, Ambesami, Ambo Meda, Zege, Wotet Abay, Parts of Bahir Dar,Parts of Enjibara, Parts of Addis Kidam, Parts of AribGebeya, Parts of Gasay, Parts of Aykel, Parts of Meshenti, Parts of Yismala and Parts of Fendika.Almost all towns are established along major roads means they are a result of exchange of goods and services. However, the distribution is more or less even across the sub-basin.

This cover type also includes roads and airports in the sub-basin. The asphalted roads of Debre Markos - Bahir Dar - Gondar, Wereta - Debre Tabor and Azezo - Metema are the main roads crosses the sub-basin. There are also gravel all weather roads such as Addis Zemen - Ebnat, Azezo - Gorgora (under construction to asphalt), Durbete - Kunzila - Shahura - Delgi - Aykel or

BoEPLAU Land Use Land Cover Assessment Draft Final Report ADSWE Page 25 Tana Sub-basin Integrated Land Use Planning and Environmental Study Project

Delgi - Gorgora, Bahir Dar - Zege - Kunzila, Woreta/Addis Zemen - Yifag, Tseda - Mirab Belesa and Hamusit - Ambesami.

Bahir Dar International air port and AtseTewodros (Gondar) air port are the two known air ports included in Tana sub-basin. Quarry sites around Bahir Dar Town, Gondar Town and near to some other small towns are also part of this class.

Towns, including roads, air ports and some quarry sites, constitute about 0.26 percent (4,181.21 hectare) of the sub-basin.Lack of consistency in identification of roads by signature created a problem of discontinuity in roads pattern in the classification result. In addition, these units resembles other cover types and covered by eucalyptus to be mapped.

4.1.2 Farm villages

This cover type focus on rural villages and its surrounding. Farm villages are resident areas of the rural population. It includes houses (Gojo and Korkoro), farm land (guaro), plantations particularly eucalyptus, shrubs and bushes and small areas of grazing land (mostly degraded).

Tana sub-basin supports a large amount of population, of which majority the people live in rural villages and engaged on agriculture. According to the Central Statistics Agency, there are more than 4,000 farm villages (rural) in than sub-basin(CSA, 2007). All the farm villages may not clearly indentified in this classification due to the scale of classification and problem of similarity with other classes particularly with eucalyptus plantation areas. Therefore, eucalyptus plantation sites are an indication of the existence of villages around.

Farm villages are vital cover classes in this study due to that it is the center of all development plans. Infrastructures and agriculture development inputs will planned considering the location of farm villages.

Figure 4: Farm villages in Guzara area(left), and near FerenjiWuha(right)

BoEPLAU Land Use Land Cover Assessment Draft Final Report ADSWE Page 26 Tana Sub-basin Integrated Land Use Planning and Environmental Study Project

4.2 Cultivated land

As a result of dominant agrarian population around Lake Tana, more than half of Tana sub-basin is occupied by cultivated land. Extensive plains bordering the Lake, valleys of major rivers and plateau in the highland areas are major croplands of the farming system. Cultivated lands cover a total of 825,176.23 hectares of land, which constitutes 52.26% of the total area and 65.04% of the dry lands of the sub-basin.

According to this classification system, cultivated land has divided in to three sub-units: intensive, moderate and sparsely cultivated land. There is a pattern of decrease in intensity of cultivation from Lake Tana outwards in every direction.

4.2.1 Intensively cultivated land

Intensively cultivated land is the most dominant units in the sub-basin. Almost all the population of the sub-basin has engaged on crop production. Tana sub-basin has extensive plains and plateaus highly suitable for crop production. The black soils of Fogera and Dembia plain, the red soil of Mecha, Achefer, Dera and Chilga woreda are productive areas of crops and are intensively cultivated.

The unit is characterized by greater or equal to 80% of the mapped area which is put under cultivation of crops and less than 20% allotted to field boundaries covered with grass, trees and shrubs. Farmhouses in this unit are very rare and un-map-able at the given scale of the study. The major farm power used in the unit is oxen plough and family labor. Major crops grown in the unit include cereals, pulses, oil crops and vegetables. Perennials are grown in homestead areas surrounded by eucalyptus and natural trees, along perennial rivers with traditional and improved irrigation systems. The crop types grown are barley, wheat, teff, maize, sorghum, horse bean, field peas, Niger seed, sunflower, lentils, chickpeas, rape seed, beetroot, cabbage and carrot.

BoEPLAU Land Use Land Cover Assessment Draft Final Report ADSWE Page 27 Tana Sub-basin Integrated Land Use Planning and Environmental Study Project

Figure 5: Intensively cultivated land along Rib River (left) and southwest of Yifag town (right)

Figure 6: Cultivated land distribution in Tana sub-basin Majority of the intensive farm lands occupied the lower slopes. Plain areas, particularly Dembia and Fogera areas, are intensively cultivated.

BoEPLAU Land Use Land Cover Assessment Draft Final Report ADSWE Page 28 Tana Sub-basin Integrated Land Use Planning and Environmental Study Project

Figure 7: Intensive cultivated land cover across different slope gradient

4.2.2 Moderately cultivated land

The unit is mainly used for cultivation of crops, grazing and browsing and wood collection for firewood, construction and tools. Natural trees scattered in cultivated fields are obvious features of the unit. Patches of grasslands occur in between crops fields and on field boundaries with or without woody vegetation. People mainly live outside of the unit. The livestock graze on grasslands of crop field boundaries and on grasslands situated on degraded areas. Scattered trees

BoEPLAU Land Use Land Cover Assessment Draft Final Report ADSWE Page 29 Tana Sub-basin Integrated Land Use Planning and Environmental Study Project in crop fields also serve as sources of organic matter and nutrients after the leaves and pods fall on the ground and decay.

This unit constitutes homesteads with eucalyptus plantation.Homesteads in the form of villages or scattered farmhouses are common in this unit.Woods are mainly collected by lopping branches of trees left in crop fields. Livestock graze mainly on grasslands situated between crop fields and on boundaries of crop fields. It is characterized by 60–79% of the unit area being used for crop cultivation and the remaining being used for grazing & browsing, tree collection and tree planting around homesteads and on boundaries of crop fields. The unit covers 241,910.52hectares of the land area which accounts for 15.32%of the entire Tana sub-basin.

Figure 8: Moderate cultivation in Lay Armachiho and Agro-forestry system near GindMeteya Moderately cultivated lands occupy the moderate to higher slopes dominating the higher altitudes. This unit is dominant in the peripheral part of the sub-basin except the eastern part. There are also extensive lands of moderate cultivation on both sides of the Bahir Dar-Debre Markos road and Dera woreda.

BoEPLAU Land Use Land Cover Assessment Draft Final Report ADSWE Page 30 Tana Sub-basin Integrated Land Use Planning and Environmental Study Project

Figure 9: Moderately cultivated land cover cross different slope gradient

4.2.3 Sparsely cultivated land

This unit of the cultivated land occurs in areas of steep slopes with shallow and stony soils and plains in the North, North-west and North-east part of the sub-basin. The unit is used by smallholder farmers. Cultivated lands in this unit are scattered because of the physical land resources such as soils are not conducive for cropping. It is mainly used for rain-fed crops cultivation that tolerates moisture stress and shallow soils. Crops grown in this unit are annuals that include cereals, pulses, oil crops and vegetables. In this unit homesteads are not common since they were open to supplement land shortage that occurs in intensively cultivated areas. The

BoEPLAU Land Use Land Cover Assessment Draft Final Report ADSWE Page 31 Tana Sub-basin Integrated Land Use Planning and Environmental Study Project major land utilization activities in the unit are crop cultivation, grazing, woodcutting and firewood collection. It is characterized by 40-59% of cultivated land and 41-60% by natural vegetation covers that were disturbed by cultivation of crops. The unit occupies 55,429.09hectares of the mapped land area which accounts for about 3.51%of the entire sub- basin.

Figure 10: Sparse cultivation near Arno town (left) and Lay Armachiho (right)

Figure 11: Sparsely cultivated land cover cross different slope gradient

BoEPLAU Land Use Land Cover Assessment Draft Final Report ADSWE Page 32 Tana Sub-basin Integrated Land Use Planning and Environmental Study Project

4.3 Forest land

Forest lands are important land cover types for our ecosystem. There are significant amount of forest cover in Tana sub-basin. Particularly, Rib, Megech and Gumara watersheds have significant forest patches around their upper catchments. In general, forest patches constitute 4.95% covering about 78,179.02hectares of land. The mitigation measures against long years forest clearing trend of the people and the protection of indigenous tree species, at least, enable to preserve the forest patches at hand.

On the other hand, there is an indication of increase on forest cover is due to continuous plantation and regeneration due to enclosure and protection on the degraded forest areas in the sub-basin. There are many shrub land closed areas protected by recent conservation and rehabilitation campaign of the government.

There are different types of forest classes in the sub-basin. However, only two of them are treated in this classification: dense natural forest land and Plantation forest.Natural forests and natural forests mixed with plantation forest mainly occupy steep slopes that are situated on escarpments, hill and mountain slopes, while plantation forests occur mainly on degraded river valley sides, hill and mountain sides and at places around homesteads on well drained areas.

4.3.1 Dense natural forest

This sub-unit includes different types of natural and indigenous trees with different levels of density.

Figure 12: Fachi forest on the road to Ebnat woreda (left) and Part of Tara Gedam forest (right)

BoEPLAU Land Use Land Cover Assessment Draft Final Report ADSWE Page 33 Tana Sub-basin Integrated Land Use Planning and Environmental Study Project

4.3.2 Plantation forest

This is solely indicates eucalyptus tree which highly intensify in the sub-basin. Tana sub-basin is one of highly vegetated by eucalyptus plantation in the country which become an important source of wood log and cheap wood raw materials.

Wogera, Mecha, Achefer, Lay Armachiho, Farta and Chilga woredas are the most eucalyptus tree plantation areas.

Figure 13: Eucalyptus in Kosoye(top-left), GindMeteya (top-right) and Kimir Dingay town (bottom)

4.4 Bush and shrub land

Bushes and shrubs are a dominant feature in the high altitude of the sub-basin. It dominates high altitude where cultivated moderate or low and degraded lands. It extensively stretches across rugged lands of Lay Armachiho, Chilga, Gondar Zuriya, Libo Kemkem, Ebnat and Farta woredas. Guna mountain and its surroundings are also the major lands of bush and shrubs. It also covers the extrusive volcano rock lands (Geucha) across Mecha and Bahir Dar Zuriya areas. There are significant amount of cover also near and Sekela areas.

BoEPLAU Land Use Land Cover Assessment Draft Final Report ADSWE Page 34 Tana Sub-basin Integrated Land Use Planning and Environmental Study Project

According to this classification, bush and shrub lands include dense shrub land, open shrub land and degraded wooded shrub lands.

4.4.1 Dense shrub land

Dominantly, dense shrub exits in and around Guna mountain and some parts of Chilga and Lay Armachiho woredas. The volcanic rock areas in Mecha woreda and patches of isolated areas in Ebnat and libo Kemkem woredas also have some amount. Dense shrub lands cover 30,223.05 hectares of land which constitute 1.91% of the entire sub-basin.

Figure 14: Shrub land in Ebnat (left) and Dense shrub land near Tara Gedam (right)

4.4.2 Open shrub land

Open shrub lands are found in all areas where the major cover covers. It exists in high land and rugged lands of the sub-basin. It also covers rocky areas of Mecha and Bahir Dar Zuriya woredas.

Figure 15: Open shrubs in Serawedi, Ebnat

4.4.3 Degraded wooded shrub land

This cover type covers areas which are highly degraded due to over cultivation, over grazing and deforestation. It occupies the high altitudes and sleep slopes of the sub-basin. There are also some

BoEPLAU Land Use Land Cover Assessment Draft Final Report ADSWE Page 35 Tana Sub-basin Integrated Land Use Planning and Environmental Study Project degraded lands near Lake Tana and around wetlands. It only covers 3,668.75 hectares to constitute 0.17% of the sub-basin. However, it is large amount as consider the land we made non- productive.

Figure 16: Forest cover type across different slope gradient

BoEPLAU Land Use Land Cover Assessment Draft Final Report ADSWE Page 36 Tana Sub-basin Integrated Land Use Planning and Environmental Study Project

4.5 Grass land

Grass lands are an important land cover types in relation to the economic system of the sub-basin that majority of the agriculturalists follow mixed farming system. There are large number of animal population in the area. However, the grazing land is small and can't carry the existing animal population.

Tana sub-basin has about 137,952.74 hectares of grass lands which covers 8.74% of the total area. It is exits almost in all parts of the sub-basin. The grass lands are alarmingly decreasing due to continues expansion of cultivation lands. However, the recent conservation and protection of communal lands at least able to keep the existing grazing lands and tries to the pressure on it.

4.5.1 Open grass land

Open grass lands are usual grazing lands in highland parts of Ethiopia. It constitutes more than 80% of the existing grass lands in Tana sub-basin. It covers 104,473.70 hectares to share 6.62% of the sub-basin. Open grass lands found in every parts of the sub-basin as small plots of land near to farm villages and along the rivers.

Figure 17: Silage production in Farta Woreda (left) and Grazing land near Alem Saga Foerst (right)

4.5.2 Shrub grass land

Shrub grass lands cover 33,479.04 hectares of land in Tana sub-basin. It covers 2.12% of the total area. It exists in all parts dominating the western side of the sub-basin.

4.6 Wetlands

The Dembia, Fogera and Kunzila plains form extensive wetlands in the north, east andsouthwest, respectively of the lake during the rainy season. There are also significant welands near Zegie and Blue Nile outlet areas. In some places, close to the lake shore there is extensive growth of papyrus (Cyprus papyrus). The littoral zone (depth 0-4 m) of the lake, which comprises water-logged

BoEPLAU Land Use Land Cover Assessment Draft Final Report ADSWE Page 37 Tana Sub-basin Integrated Land Use Planning and Environmental Study Project swamps, the shallow lake margins and the mouths of rivers feeding the lake, is relatively small, covering about 10% of the total surface area (Eshete 2003).

4.6.1 Seasonal wetlands

There are extensive areas of seasonal wetland in Tana sub-basin which hold water during rainy season. However, all these type of areas aren't considered as wetland due to its use for cultivation. For example, Fogera plain is a wetland in rainy season. But, due to its use for rice production, it doesn't considered as wetland currently. There are many other lands which is swampy during wet season but used for different purposes.

The area covered by seasonal wetlands is 6,895.61 hectares which covers 0.44% of the sub-basin. It covers the inlet areas of the four major rivers of Dembia, Fogera and Kunzila areas. The lower course of rivers and very gentle slopes around lake Tana are areas of seasonal wetlands.

4.6.2 Permanent wetlands

Contrary to their serious encroachment, Tana sub-basin has well known permanent wetlands. Shesher and Welala in Fogera plain, Yiganda near Zegie, Estumit and Sancra near kunzila and in Dembia plain are among the major known wetlands in the sub-basin.

Permanent wetlands covers about 18,307.72 hectares of land which constitute about 1.16% of the total sub-basin. These wetlands are the home of many types of birds and site for fish breeding.

Even though a number of studies indicated the danger facing the wetlands around Lake Tana, the serious encroachment and pressure is still continuing.

Figure 18: GoshoMesk wetland near Woreta Town (left) and Wetland near DengelBer Town (right)

BoEPLAU Land Use Land Cover Assessment Draft Final Report ADSWE Page 38 Tana Sub-basin Integrated Land Use Planning and Environmental Study Project

4.7 Water body

Water body occupies 19.66% of Tana sub-basin. The total area it covers reaches 310,423.42 hectare of land. It includes lakes, rivers, and ponds and dams. Rivers aren't all clearly outlined by this classification. However, major rivers of the sub-basin are identified particularly, to the downstream to Lake Tana.

4.7.1 Lake

This unit solely constitutes Lake Tana. The Lake occupies 305,650.00 hectares of land in the sub-basin which covers 19.36% of the total. The area of Lake Tana varies from classification to classification at different data sources. This is due to variation in used data type, variation in season of the image acquired, method of classification and the capacity of the classifier. Based on the maximum level classification result for the study of Lake Tana and its environs tourism and transport potential assessment, the area of Lake Tana is 309,132.12 hectares in which most of neighboring permanent wetlands and recession areas are included. It is about 303,280.68 hectares based on the data distributed by Bureau of Finance and Economic Development (BoFED), ANRS.

There is a symptom of shrinking of Lake Tana due to continues sedimentation of severe erosion in the up-stream highlands and serious encroachment of the farmers for a need of fertile land. The SPOT image used for this classification able to indicated parts of the lake which has affected by deposition and resulted decrease in its depth.

4.7.2 Rivers

The classification did not effectively indicated all rivers and all parts of a river. However, due to its significance for the land use planning, at least the major rivers are included by supporting with manual editing. The major rivers of the sub-basin Gumara, Rib, Gilgel Abay and Megech are indicated.

Rivers comprises 0.17% covering a total of 2,737.30 hectares of land. It includes not only the water but also the dry valley of the river course.

BoEPLAU Land Use Land Cover Assessment Draft Final Report ADSWE Page 39 Tana Sub-basin Integrated Land Use Planning and Environmental Study Project

Figure 19: Rib Rier (left) and River (right)

4.7.3 Ponds and dams

All the natural and man-made stagnant water bodies are included in this class. The class includes Selamko pond near Debere Tabor, near Gondar, Koga dam, in Mecha woreda and many other small ponds around the lake. There are a total of 60 and more ponds and dams in the sub-basin identified by this classification, which occupy 2,036.12 hectares to share 0.13% of the sub-basin.

Figure 20: Selamko Dam near Debre Tabor Town and pond in Fogera

4.8 Sub-afro-alpine vegetation

This major vegetation type mainly occurs in the highland areas of above 2800m elevation above sea level, specifically in Guna Mountain and its surroundings. The vegetation type may includes woodland, wooded shrub grassland, Shrub grassland, and grasslands. These sub categories occur side by side or one after the other depending on differences of slope, soil and terrain features. All sub-types of the afro alpine and sub-afro-alpine vegetation are highly influenced by cold climate and wet conditions of the area where they occur.

BoEPLAU Land Use Land Cover Assessment Draft Final Report ADSWE Page 40 Tana Sub-basin Integrated Land Use Planning and Environmental Study Project

The sub-categories in most places had been severely affected by cultivation and intensive grazing resulting from land shortages in the sub-basin. The afro-alpine and sub-afro-alpine vegetation all- together covers a total of 12,261.75hectares of land which is only 0.78% of the entire Tana sub- basin. The main vegetation species occurring in these sub-categories of the physiognomic vegetation types are Juniperusprocera, Erica arborea, Erythrinabrucei, Hageniaabyssinica, Arundnariaalpina, Rosa abyssinica, Enjori, Guassa grass, Trifolium sp. Wulkifa, Parochetuscommunis, Carex ramose and Hypericumrevolutem.

Figure 21: All exist in Guna Mountain, South Gondar

BoEPLAU Land Use Land Cover Assessment Draft Final Report ADSWE Page 41 Tana Sub-basin Integrated Land Use Planning and Environmental Study Project

Figure 22: Existing Land use and Land cover of Tana sub-basin

BoEPLAU Land Use Land Cover Assessment Draft Final Report ADSWE Page 42 Tana sub-basin Integrated Land Use Planning and Environmental Study Project

Table 2: Existing Land Use and Land Cover classification result (6.4 hectares MDA) No Sub-units Area (ha) % Major covers Area (ha) % 1 Town 4,552.14 0.29% 2 Farm village 109,421.81 6.93% Built-up area 113,973.95 7.22% 3 Intensively cultivated 586,984.38 37.17% land 4 Moderately cultivated 252,247.24 15.97% land 5 Sparsely cultivated land 40,415.46 2.56% Cultivated land 879,647.08 55.71% 6 Dense natural forest 14,453.68 0.92% 7 Plantation forest 45,425.62 2.88% Forest 59,879.31 3.79% 8 Dense shrub land 26,420.85 1.67% 9 Open shrub land 50,809.17 3.22% 10 Degraded wooded shrub 203.49 0.01% Bush and shrub land land 77,433.51 4.90% 11 Open grass land 99,015.93 6.27% 12 Shrub grass land 740.95 0.05% Grass land 99,756.87 6.32% 13 Seasonal wetland 4,681.35 0.30% 14 Permanent wetland 19,365.17 1.23% Wetland 24,046.52 1.52% 15 Lake 306,532.43 19.41% 16 Rivers 2,304.92 0.15% 17 Ponds and Dams 2,059.56 0.13% Water body 310,896.91 19.69% Afro alpine and Sub-afro-alpine sub-afro-alpine 18 vegetation 13,462.79 0.85% vegetation 13,462.79 0.85% Total 1,579,096.94 100.00% 1,579,096.94 100.00%

Table 3: Existing Land Use and Land Cover classification (1 hectares MDA)

No Sub-units Area (ha) % Major covers Area (ha) % 1 Town 4,181.21 0.26% 2 Farm village 83,648.08 5.30% Built-up area 87,829.29 5.56% Intensively cultivated 3 land 527,836.62 33.43% Moderately cultivated 4 land 241,910.52 15.32% 5 Sparsely cultivated land 55,429.09 3.51% Cultivated land 825,176.23 52.26% 6 Dense natural forest 17,828.38 1.13% 7 Plantation forest 60,350.65 3.82% Forest 78,179.02 4.95% 8 Dense shrub land 30,223.05 1.91% 9 Open shrub land 68,179.35 4.32% Degraded wooded shrub Bush and shrub 10 land 3,668.75 0.23% land 102,071.16 6.46% 11 Open grass land 104,473.70 6.62% Grass land 137,952.74 8.74%

BoEPLAU Land Use Land Cover Assessment Draft Final Report ADSWE Page 43 Tana sub-basin Integrated Land Use Planning and Environmental Study Project

12 Shrub grass land 33,479.04 2.12% 13 Seasonal wetland 6,895.61 0.44% 14 Permanent wetland 18,307.72 1.16% Wetland 25,203.33 1.60% 15 Lake 305,650.00 19.36% 16 Rivers 2,737.30 0.17% 17 Ponds and Dams 2,036.12 0.13% Water body 310,423.42 19.66% Afro alpine and Sub-afro-alpine sub-afro-alpine 18 vegetation 12,261.75 0.78% vegetation 12,261.75 0.78%

Total 1,579,096.94 100.00% 1,579,096.94 100.00%

4.9 Distribution of Land use and land cover at woreda level

Table 4: Distribution of Land use and land cover at woreda level Wered Land use and land cover at woreda level a Built-up Cultivated Forest Shrub and Water Afro Name area land land Grass land bush body Wetland alpine Area % Area % Area % Area % Area % Area % Area % Area % 14 1. 0. 522. 2. 14,20 79. 0. 2,662 .8 248. 1. 177. 0 168. 9 0. Alefa 70 90 4.00 00 0.00 00 .00 0 40 40 00 0 90 0 0.00 00 Bahir 16 4. 7. Dar 344. 3. 5,770. 60. 532. 5. 1,516 .0 261. 2. 378. 0 703. 4 0. town 20 60 00 70 30 60 .00 0 30 70 00 0 60 0 0.00 00 Bahir 11 13 1. 7. Dar 3,42 4. 448,7 59. 2,25 3. 83,64 .0 9,98 .0 1,32 7 5,45 2 0. Zuriya 4.70 50 22.00 30 4.00 00 1.00 0 2.00 0 0.00 0 1.00 0 0.00 00 Banja 0. 0. Shekud 389. 4. 8,220. 95. 0. 0. 0. 0 0 0. ad 30 50 20 50 0.00 00 0.00 00 0.00 00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 00 12 0. 0. 3,58 8. 30,15 72. 913. 2. 5,268 .6 1,96 4. 0 0 0. Chilga 8.50 60 1.20 00 90 20 .00 0 5.00 70 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 00 18 0. 0. Debret 945. 8. 5,850. 52. 940. 8. 303.2 2. 1,98 .0 43.6 4 0 1017 9. abor 70 50 40 80 30 50 0 70 7.00 0 0 0 0.00 0 .00 20 0. 2. 0. Dembi 8,70 6. 100,1 79. 1,32 1. 11,78 9. 426. 0. 1,09 9 2,69 1 00 a 2.10 90 75.00 40 2.00 00 4.00 30 30 30 0.00 0 6.00 0 0.00 11 0. 0. 0. Dengil 3,62 8. 29,84 71. 4,63 .0 3,296 7. 204. 0. 0 0 00 a 9.00 72 9.00 70 1.00 0 .00 90 00 50 1.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 10 1. 0. 0. 7,26 .8 51,45 76. 1,08 1. 4,595 6. 1,20 1. 1,16 7 520. 8 00 Dera 9.10 0 8.80 50 7.00 60 .00 80 6.00 80 6.00 0 10 0 0.00 0. 0. 1,95 7. 16,46 65. 392. 1. 2,311 9. 2,47 9. 0 0 1392 5. Ebinat 6.20 80 6.40 90 00 60 .00 20 1.00 90 0.00 0 0.00 0 .00 60 Fagita 0. 0. Lekom 1,88 5. 33,67 89. 2,08 5. 0. 0. 0 0 0. a 5.20 00 6.00 30 9.00 50 42.50 10 0.00 00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 00

BoEPLAU Land Use Land Cover Assessment Draft Final Report ADSWE Page 44 Tana sub-basin Integrated Land Use Planning and Environmental Study Project

11,7 12 16,4 17 0. 0. 62.0 .3 50,16 52. 4,86 5. 4,617 4. 97.0 .2 261. 3 0 7818 8. Farta 0 0 2.40 30 8.00 10 .00 80 0 0 40 0 0.00 0 .00 10 1. 2. 7,52 6. 87,27 78. 1,95 1. 4,364 3. 4,46 4. 1,26 1 3,06 8 1224 1. Fogera 4.90 80 7.00 50 5.00 80 .00 90 7.00 00 6.00 0 5.00 0 .00 10 10 0. 0. Gondar 3,00 .3 22,17 75. 1,48 5. 2,089 7. 210. 0. 203. 7 0 72.5 0. Town 0.30 0 9.10 90 5.00 10 .00 10 30 70 50 0 0.00 0 0 20 12,8 13 0. 0. Gondar 6,65 7. 63,03 66. 2,77 2. 8,170 8. 74.0 .6 659. 7 687. 7 0. Zuriya 1.80 00 2.10 50 6.00 90 .00 60 0 0 70 0 20 0 0.00 00 10 0. 0. 0. 0.0 0. 0. 0. 0 0 0. Jawi 0.00 00 12.30 0 0.00 00 0.00 00 0.00 00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 00 Lay 11 19 0. 0. Armac 3,57 .2 18,33 57. 2,19 6. 1,586 5. 6,05 .0 56.3 2 0 101. 0. hew 2.10 0 8.50 50 8.00 90 .00 00 7.00 0 0 0 0.00 0 70 30 0. 0. 10 Lay 0. 0.0 0. 0. 0. 0 0 44.7 0. Gayint 0.00 00 0.00 0 0.00 00 0.00 00 0.00 00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0 0 24,9 11 1. 0. Liboke 7,23 9. 56,91 71. 21.0 3. 2,532 3. 8,77 .1 825. 0 469. 6 0. mkem 4.70 10 1.80 80 0 10 .00 20 2.00 0 10 0 30 0 0.00 00 11,5 15,5 12 2. 0. 34.0 8. 89,09 67. 05.0 .0 7,485 5. 5,23 4. 2,58 0 553. 4 0. Mecha 0 70 4.80 50 0 0 .00 70 6.00 00 3.00 0 50 0 0.00 00 14 26 0. 0. Merab 22.3 .6 58. 0. 0. 40.6 .5 0 0 0. Belesa 0 0 90.40 90 0.00 00 0.00 00 0 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 00 11 11 0. 0. Misrak 2,65 .1 16,05 67. 766. 3. 530.9 2. 2,65 .1 0 0 1,27 5. Este 3.30 0 0.70 10 50 20 0 20 5.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 6 30 North 10 1. 7. Achefe 2,95 4. 49,98 75. 229. 0. 6,615 .0 536. 0. 797. 2 5,19 8 0. r 8.70 50 5.20 40 70 30 .00 0 70 80 50 0 6.00 0 0.00 00 0. 0. 26.3 2. 1,094. 97. 0. 0. 0. 0 0 0. Quarit 0 30 00 70 0.00 00 0.00 00 0.00 00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 00 0. 0. 2,16 5. 35,46 86. 3,30 8. 0. 0. 0 0 0. Sekela 4.50 30 6.60 60 2.00 10 15.20 00 0.00 00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 00 South 11 0. 0. Achefe 3,54 5. 53,77 80. 1,75 2. 7,335 .0 215. 0. 0 0 0. r 0.40 30 3.30 70 3.00 60 .00 0 70 30 6.10 0 0.00 0 0.00 00 2. 2. 1,38 4. 26,33 81. 43.6 0. 3,138 9. 27.9 0. 887. 7 707. 2 0. Takusa 0.10 20 4.20 00 0 10 .00 60 0 10 90 0 90 0 0.00 00 10 0. 0. Weger 611. .3 4,531. 76. 359. 6. 165.7 2. 265. 4. 0 0 27.9 0. a 50 0 40 00 40 00 0 80 70 50 0.00 0 0.00 0 0 50 28 0. 0. Yilman 0. 592.6 71. 231. .0 0. 0. 0 0 0. aDensa 0.00 00 0 90 30 0 0.00 00 0.00 00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 00 97,2 1,319, 74,5 76,6 11,7 20,2 12,9 94.0 469.0 55.0 164,0 05.9 22.1 18.5 73.8 Total 0 0 0 61.50 0 0 0 0

BoEPLAU Land Use Land Cover Assessment Draft Final Report ADSWE Page 45 Tana sub-basin Integrated Land Use Planning and Environmental Study Project

The distribution of land use and land cover only show the eight major cover across the woredas in the sub-basin. The woredas may have some of or the whole major covers. This is related with part of the woreda included to the sub-basin.

4.10 Distribution of cultivated land across slope gradients

According to the government of Ethiopia land use proclamations (Proclamation No. 456/2005) and development strategies,development of annual crops on rural lands that have slopes between 31-60 percent may be allowed only through making bench terraces. However, as opposite to Ethiopian land proclamation, the distribution of cultivated land cross slope gradient analysis result showed that 55,042.34 ha of land is under annual crop cultivation within a slope greater than 30 percent. This land can be used safely for conservation and protection forest, or wildlife or some combination of these under proper management. Thus this has to be revised and reconsidered in this new land use planning study.

Table 5: Cultivated land distribution across different slopes Cultivated land cover per slope classes Slope Intensive Cu/land Moderately Cu/land Sparsely Cu/land total classes (%) area(ha) % Area(ha) % Area(ha) % area % 0-2 15,0046.5 25.6 31,007.56 12.37 2,975.37 7.4 184,029.43 20.9

2-5 165,657 28.2 49,169.3 19.54 4,852.39 12.0 218,789.37 24.9

5-8 68108.4 11.6 35,771.2 14.25 3,963.07 9.8 107,842.67 12.3

8-15 97,994.4 16.7 62,705.7 24.93 8,556.24 21.2 169,256.34 19.3

15-30 77,052.7 13.1 54,608.2 21.62 12,136.64 30.0 143,797.54 16.4

30-60 26,765.4 4.6 18,276 7.2 7,333.92 18.1 52,375.32 6.0

>60 1,359.9 0.2 709.3 0.3 597.82 1.5 2,667.02 0.3

Total 586,984.3 100 252,247.3 100 40,415.45 100 879,647.07 100.0

4.11 Distribution of forest land across slope gradients

The result of forest cover analysis across different slope shown that, the distribution of forestland varies along slope gradients. Despite the overall decline of the forest cover in the area, better cover was observed in the slope category of 15-30 %. As indicated in Table below, as the slope

BoEPLAU Land Use Land Cover Assessment Draft Final Report ADSWE Page 46 Tana sub-basin Integrated Land Use Planning and Environmental Study Project steepness increases (above 30%), the proportion of forest covers is decreasing. This can be justified that a very steep slope or hillsides areas in Ethiopia are commonly belong to a communal land where illegal forest encroachment is more intensive as compared to the areas that belong to private owned land area.

It is understood that the declining of forest cover in such very steep slope in the study area is the main root cause of land degradation, soil erosion, siltation and sedimentation of water bodies including the large Lake Tana. Therefore the land having slope >30% should be well managed and protected by using proper land use planning for sustainable land resource development in the study area.

Table 6: The distribution of forest land along slope gradients Slope Forest land Afro alpine &sub Shrub &bush Total classes afro alpine vet. area(ha) In % Area(ha) In % Area(ha) In % Area (ha) In %

0-2 6,753.00 11.3 191.10 1.4 9,027.60 11.7 15,971.70 10.6 2-5 14,578.70 24.3 975.60 7.2 8,728.60 11.3 24,282.90 16.1 5-8 6497.50 10.9 1,003.40 7.5 3,977.40 5.1 11,478.30 7.6 8-15 8883.40 14.8 2,985.30 22.2 9,717.00 12.5 21,585.70 14.3 15-30 13,875.80 23.2 4,746.00 35.3 22,712.90 29.3 41,334.70 27.4 30-60 8915.90 14.9 3,329.00 24.7 21,677.20 28 33,922.10 22.5 >60 375.10 0.6 232.50 1.7 1,592.80 2.1 2,200.40 1.5 Total 59,879.40 100 13,462.90 100 77,433.50 100 150,775.80 100

BoEPLAU Land Use Land Cover Assessment Draft Final Report ADSWE Page 47 Tana sub-basin Integrated Land Use Planning and Environmental Study Project

Figure 23: Distribution of forest lands in Tana sub-basin

BoEPLAU Land Use Land Cover Assessment Draft Final Report ADSWE Page 48 Tana sub-basin Integrated Land Use Planning and Environmental Study Project

4.12 The covers change assessmen across the different periods

Most of the vegetation covers showed a decrease in the last 28 years (Table ). Forest land and grass land have decreased continuously in these years. Sub-afro-alpine vegetation showed a dramatic decrease in the second period of assessment. On the other hand, bushes and shrubs recorded a one percent increase from the total area and unexpected fast decline in the second period.

As expected, water body and wetlands showed small variation as compared to the other cover types. Water body, particularly Lake Tana, showed a continuous increase in size, small amount in the first period and higher water overage in the second period. From the total area of the sub- basin, wetlands decrease to 0.63 from 0.69 percent in the first assessment period and increased to 0.76 percent in the final period.

Another well expectation was the increase of cultivated lands. It progressed from 37.42 to 41.48 in the first period and then, to 50.12 percent in the second period of assessment, considering from the total area of the sub-basin. Tana sub-basin is one of the area in Ethiopia influenced by population pressure dominantly engaged on agriculture. Therefore, there was a continuous pressure on the surrounding vegetation cover in need of expanding the cultivated lands.

Table 7: Summary of LuLc classification Change assessment years Cover type 1986 % 2000 % 2014 % Forest land 70,197.31 4.45 36,319.12 2.3 27,842.44 1.76 Sub-afro-alpine vegetation 12,304.15 0.78 1,037.76 0.07 3,811.29 0.24 Built-up area 15,032.41 0.95 4,349.06 0.28 4,420.81 0.28 Bush and shrub land 388,640.53 24.61 405,033.71 25.65 282,016.83 17.86 Grass land 186,032.07 11.78 160,976.29 10.19 147,546.18 9.34 Water body 305,146.05 19.32 306,356.37 19.40 310,135.26 19.64 Wetland 10,895.29 0.69 10,019.54 0.63 12,002.96 0.76 Cultivated land 590,849.12 37.42 655,005.08 41.48 791,321.16 50.12

Total 1,579,096.93 100 1,579,096.93 100 1,579,096.93 100

The classification result of built-up area, which includes farm villages and towns, doesn't indicate a good trend. The size of the cover tremendously decrease in the first period and remain low in the second assessment years. This doesn't reflect the actual distribution of built-p areas in the sub- basin. This is related to two main problems. First, the landsat image isn't detail enough to detect

BoEPLAU Land Use Land Cover Assessment Draft Final Report ADSWE Page 49 Tana sub-basin Integrated Land Use Planning and Environmental Study Project such scattered tiny rural village houses. Secondly, the problem may related to the lack of taking appropriate ground control points at the field and signatures during classification time.

In general, the classification result of the selected years can give a view how the land use land cover types have changed over time. However, it doesn't indicate the transition of area from one cover type to another and where the changes occurred. The statistics doesn't answer the questions to which cover transformed the loses of one cover type. Therefore, a much detail change analysis has made using the next transition matrix analysis.

4.13 Transformed versus Unchanged

In spite of the complex influx and the heavy agrarian population pressure in Tana sub-basin, the amount of land use land cover change in the last 28 years wasn't more than 30 percent. The amount of land cover remain unchanged in the first period (1986-2000) was 77.70 percent and it was 75.10 percent in the next period (2000-2014). However, the overall (1986-2014) changes recorded increased a little bit more than 30 percent, which pushed the unchanged down to 68.59 percent.

Table 8: The amount of each cover remain unchanged Periods Cover type 1986-2000 % 2000-2014 % 1986-2014 % Forest land 28,615.60 40.76 18,192.90 50.09 17,368.73 24.74 Sub-afro-alpine vegetation 522.67 4.25 852.47 82.15 2,460.03 20.00 Built-up area 1,237.89 8.24 463.95 10.67 490.03 3.26 Bush and shrub land 255,949.07 65.86 201,890.45 49.85 155,161.46 39.92 Grass land 116,735.37 62.75 89,420.94 55.55 83,088.39 44.66 Water body 305,186.31 99.36 305,646.98 99.77 304,473.43 99.78 Wetland 3,643.94 33.45 2,759.74 27.54 2,378.41 21.83 Cultivated land 515,122.92 88.18 566,620.30 86.51 517,661.38 87.61 Total 1,227,013.77 77.70 1,185,847.73 75.10 1,083,081.86 68.59

As indicated in Table 8, in the first period (1986-2000), of all eight major covers, water body keeps by far the highest percentage of survival coverage, having 99.36 percent unchanged. There is no also significant cover conversion on cultivated lands. More than two-third of bushes, shrubs and grass lands are remain unchanged in this period. On the other hand, sub-afro-alpine vegetation (4.25%) followed by built-up areas (8.24%) have the lowest unchanged coverage. In other word, these land uses are the most disturbed cover types and strongly transformed to other cover types in last 28 years.

BoEPLAU Land Use Land Cover Assessment Draft Final Report ADSWE Page 50 Tana sub-basin Integrated Land Use Planning and Environmental Study Project

In the second assessment period (2000-2014), still water body preserved its 99.77 percent of coverage in the first period, 99.77 percent in the second and 99.78 percent in the whole assessment years. Similarly, built-up areas are also the least maintained (10.67%) cover type in the period. Wetlands are the second least preserved, only maintain 27.54 percent of its previous wetland areas.

When comparing Table and Table , one may get controversy statistics. For instance, taking wetlands as an example, it is almost the same in all three assessment years: 10,895.29 hectares in 1986, 10,019.54 hectares in 2000 and 12,002.96 hectares in 2014. However, wetlands are one of the highly transformed land cover in the sub-basin. From 1986-2000, it is only 33.45 percent of its coverage remain unchanged. The preserved coverage decreased to 27.54 percent in the second period (2000-2014) and 21.83 percent between 1986-2014. What does it mean?

Keeping the total size doesn't mean necessarily there is no change on that particular land cover. This means, even though wetlands lose its coverage over the assessment years, it compensate its size from other land cover types through land use land cover conversion. How it could be? Does any land cover type converted to wetlands?

Based on the classification result, new wetlands are detected at different parts of the sub-basin. There emergence related to the development of reservoir water, river diversions and dams. For example, the construction of drinking water reservoir of Gondar and Debre Tabor towns, the river diversions along Gumara, Rib, Megech and Gilgel Abay rivers, the construction of Koga Dam and many other small ponds lead to the emergence of wetlands around.

Similarly, there are other cover types which maintain its total coverage size but showed a large amount of conversion over the years.

4.14 Transition Matrix analysis

The transitional matrix is a good indicator of the change of land cover from one type to another. It also shows how much of the cover under discussion remain unchanged over the specified time.

Many research works in Tana sub-basin indicate the transformation and conversion of wetlands, grasslands, shrubs and coast line of Lake Tana to another cover type particularly, to cultivated land. According to this study, the change is not as such scholars claim. Compared to other parts of the country, the conversion is not beyond normal.

BoEPLAU Land Use Land Cover Assessment Draft Final Report ADSWE Page 51 Tana sub-basin Integrated Land Use Planning and Environmental Study Project

The transition matrix also shows the conversion of the cover is compensated by transformation from other cover types. Normally, the wetlands and shrub lands are highly filled its lose by gaining from other types of covers through time.

Table 9: Transitional matrix of 1986-2000

2000 Forest Sub- Built- Bush and Grass Water Wetland Cultivated land afro- up area shrub land body land alpine 1986 Forest land 28,615.60 253 10.37 34,008.88 1,512.08 579.52 2,044.82 1,864.10 Sub-afro-alpine 404.52 522.67 14.37 7,123.01 3,361.62 ---- 11.04 514.53 Built-up area 12.97 --- 1,237.89 3,781.47 87.82 ---- 75.74 7,226.35 Bush and shrub 3,739.73 53.41 1,089.36 255,949.07 25,293.96 176.06 2,206.04 90,850.22 Grass land 1,021.21 225 115.25 27,252.31 116,735.37 6.86 504.71 42,044.60 Water body 201.01 ---- 6.3 195.62 ---- 305,186.31 177.55 ---- Wetland 2,564.92 ---- 13.73 2,567.35 444.65 933.65 3,643.94 179.42 Cultivated land 548.63 ---- 809.74 72,537.69 12,353.65 ---- 1,084.32 515,122.92

Table 10: Transitional matrix of 2000-2014 2014 Forest Sub- Built- Bush and Grass Water Wetland Cultivated land afro- up area shrub land body land alpine 2000 Forest land 18,192.90 42.15 152.48 10,208.36 406.1 1,640.92 2,154.83 2,617.13 Sub-afro-alpine 1.17 852.47 --- 131.53 47.21 ------9.76 Built-up area 4.29 --- 463.95 98.36 97.66 3.53 15.13 3,591.25 Bush and shrub 5,931.64 2,196.61 2,711.39 201,890.45 15,133.46 1,698.32 4,317.46 168,728.73 Grass land 1,012.72 453.85 145.7 22,726.04 89,420.94 432.54 883.95 43,795.58 Water body 190.6 --- 24.37 303.77 5.69 305,646.98 483.92 401.12 Wetland 1,171.89 --- 126.85 940.07 173.39 1,123.47 2,759.74 3,314.30 Cultivated land 1,395.02 158.72 575.85 46,364.03 43,729.20 56.18 1,320.87 566,620.30

BoEPLAU Land Use Land Cover Assessment Draft Final Report ADSWE Page 52 Tana sub-basin Integrated Land Use Planning and Environmental Study Project

Table 11: Transitional matrix of 1986-2014 2014 Forest Sub- Built- Bush and Grass Water Wetland Cultivated land afro- up area shrub land body land alpine 1986 Forest land 17,368.73 271.8 326.3 36,707.61 1,926.33 1,783.69 2,229.37 9,324.16 Sub-afro-alpine 447.21 2,460.03 18.8 2,509.20 5,149.46 --- 1.5 990.28 Built-up area 20.51 --- 490.03 1,046.37 1,710.09 9.91 51.99 10,283.87 Bush and shrub 5,184.81 283.42 1,908.78 155,161.46 21,796.33 860.91 3,179.40 191,667.02 Grass land 2,794.77 773.19 425.07 34,457.80 83,088.39 865.1 1,641.00 63,867.57 Water body 190.87 --- 14.8 320.25 11 304,473.43 544.2 323.06 Wetland 1,018.56 2.34 108.78 1,409.82 269.54 2,783.36 2,378.41 2,743.62 Cultivated land 1,701.63 --- 744.58 45,668.52 31,486.02 50.45 2,110.11 517,661.38

In general, built-up areas are highly transformed and converted to other land cover types, particularly to cultivated land. The villagization program of 1986/87 of Derg may transformed many rural villages to purely cultivated land. However, as stated before, the transition statistics of built-up area is not a good indicator of the change expected actually on the ground

BoEPLAU Land Use Land Cover Assessment Draft Final Report ADSWE Page 53 Tana sub-basin Integrated Land Use Planning and Environmental Study Project

5 CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATION

5.1 Conclusion

The existing land use land cover of Tana sub-basin is dominated by cultivated land (52.66%) followed by water bodies (19.66%) with the presence of Lake Tana. All the other land cover types have individual share of less than 10 percent. Afro-alpine and sub-afro-alpine vegetation constitutes the least amount in the sub-basin with only 0.78 percent.

The forest cover of the sub-basin (4.95%) is almost the same with the current forest percentageshare of Ethiopia. Of course, the cover includes plantation forests particularly eucalyptus plantation. However, significant amount of eucalyptus trees are part of the class of farm villages.

In spite of the strong pressure of cultivated land expansion, Tana sub-basin still has large area of grass land (grazing land)coverage. Grass land is the third largest in amount of coverage with 137,952.74 hectare in the sub-basin. The recent conservation and rehabilitation program of the government resulted significant coverage of bushes and shrubs.

Through the last 28 years, water body, including Lake Tana, is the least disturbed in terms of coverage. On the other hand, sub-afro-alpine vegetation is the most transformed cover. Cultivated lands gained large area of cover from the other types.

5.2 Recommendation

Tana sub-basin is predominantly inhabited by agrarian population. The fast increase in population number and the need to expand cultivated land pressurize other covers of the sub-basin. There must be a mission keeping the balance between the existence of these covers and the expansion of cultivated land. In general, the following recommendation are indicated as possible actions.

1. Above all, wetlands of Tana sub-basin are vital for the regulation of the surrounding ecosystem. Even though it covers 25,203.33 hectares of land only sharing 1.65 percent of the sub-basin, it is very important the balance of the biodiversity, mitigation of the siltation and sedimentation of Lake Tana, breading site of fish species of the lake, home of many bird species and many other valuable addition. Therefore, the government, the people and all other stakeholders should work to the preservation of wetlands. Already

BoEPLAU Land Use Land Cover Assessment Draft Final Report ADSWE Page 54 Tana sub-basin Integrated Land Use Planning and Environmental Study Project

started activities like Biosphere Reserve needs to be supported and motivated by every actors. 2. Tana sub-basin is one of the area where remnants of indigenous trees found in Ethiopia. Particularly, the northern and eastern part of the sub-basin is endowed with age-long trees. Much has done to keep and conserve these forest patches in the previous years. Still, the work has to be more organized and strengthened to sustain the forests existence effectively. 3. Lake Tana is the largest fresh water in the country and the home of a number of endemic fish species. The lake supports the life of many population in the surrounding areas. Therefore, keeping the sustainable existence of Lake Tana is not a matter of argument rather it is a question of survival. The major rivers and many other tributaries should be managed wisely and effectively. The dams and ponds constructed in the sub-basin needs to be handled in a better way in order to reduce the consequences on Lake Tana. 4. Currently, the Ministry of Agriculture has worked a lot in conservation of the existing vegetation cover all over the country. This resulted in the rehabilitation of cleared and degraded areas and flourishing of shrubs and bushes in every localities. There are many conserved and protected shrub lands in Tana sub-basin.The local community has participated and involved strongly in the conservation program. This has to be sustainable and continual in the future. 5. Tana sub-basin is one of the potential area of crop production in Ethiopia. More than 85 percent of the population in the sub-basin engaged on agriculture. However, with the increasing size of the population, croplands expand at the expense of other cover types particularly, wetlands, grass lands and shrubs. For instance, the introduction of rice in Fogera plain is vital for the economic development of the surrounding community. However, the rice production land expansion across the Fogera plain wetlands and along the shore lines of Lake Tana seriously endangered the existence of the valuable wetlands there. There must be a measure to keep the balance of protecting the existing wetlands and increase the economic benefit of the people from rice production.

BoEPLAU Land Use Land Cover Assessment Draft Final Report ADSWE Page 55 Tana sub-basin Integrated Land Use Planning and Environmental Study Project

6 REFERENC

AdemGobena, 2008. Assessment of Ecotourism Potentials for Sustainable Natural Resources Management in and Around Abijata-Shala Lakes National Park in the Central Ethiopian Rift Valley: Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.

Adrian Wood (2001). Wetlands of Ethiopia: Proceedings of a seminar on the resources and status of in Ethiopia‟s wetlands; Wetlands, gender and poverty: some elements in the development of sustainable and equitable wetland management; Ethiopian Wetlands Research Programme, University of Huddersfield, Yorkshire, England.

Amhara Design & Supervision Works Enterprise, 2011. Sikor River Diversion Irrigation Project: Watershed Management Feasibility Study. Bahir Dar.

ANRS, Investment Office. 2005. Tourism resources potential study report; Development Studies Associates and Shawel Consult International. Bahir Dar.

AzeneBekele and Ann Birnie, 1993. Useful trees and shrubs for Ethiopia. SIDA‟s Regional Soil conservation Unit. Addis Ababa. Ethiopia.

BCTPD. 2011. Tourism destinations networking development plan for Lake Tana and its vicinities. Bahir Dar, Addiss Ababa.

Birru Y., 2007. Land Degradation and Options for Sustainable Land Management in the Lake Tana Basin (LTB), Amhara Region, Ethiopia. Centre for Development and Environment (CDE) GeographischesInstitu. Bern.

BoFED. 2006. The 2004/05 budget year statistical bulletin of Amhara Region. Bahir Dar.

Bradley et al. 2010.Incorporating Ecosystem Services into Coastal and Watershed Management: EPA Report.US.

Central Statistics Authority (CSA) (2003). “Ethiopian agricultural sample enumeration, 2001/2002 results for Amhara region, statistical reports on area and production of crops, part II B”. Central Statistics Agency, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.

Cleve, C., Kelly, M., Kearns, F.R., and Moritz, M., (2008). Classification of the wild land–urban interface: A comparison of pixel- and object-based classifications using high- resolution aerial photography. Computers, Environment and Urban Systems.

Edward B, Barbier, Mike Acreman and Duncan Knowler (1997). EconomicValuation of Wetlands:A Guide for Policy Makers and Planners, Ramsar Convention Bureau Department of Environmental Economics and Environmental Management, University of York Institute of Hydrology; IUCN-The World Conservation Union. Edward B, Barbier, Mike Acreman and Duncan Knowler.1997. EconomicValuation of Wetlands: A Guide for Policy Makers and Planners, Ramsar Convention Bureau Department of Environmental Economics and Environmental Management, University of York Institute of Hydrology; IUCN-The World Conservation Union.

BoEPLAU Land Use Land Cover Assessment Draft Final Report ADSWE Page 56 Tana sub-basin Integrated Land Use Planning and Environmental Study Project

EndeshawMulatu. 2006. Socio-economic issues in Lake Tana Watershed: Future challenges and opportunities for sustainable development. Paper presented on the national workshop on Lake Tana and its Environment: Conservation, Utilization, Development and Threats. Nov. 6-7, 2006. Bahir Dar.

EPLAUA 2006 Ecological Significances, Threats And Management Options Of Lake Tana-Associated Wetland. Bahir Dar.

EPLAUA. 2007. Amhara National Regional State Community-based Integrated Natural Resources Management in Lake Tana Watershed; Baseline Information on Crop Production. Bahir Dar.

Eshete, D. (2003). “The small barbs of Lake Tana”. Doctoral thesis, Experimental Zoology Group, Wageningen University, The Netherlands.

Handbook Of Ecotourism In Protected Areas Of Vietnam.

Henry Busulwa and Christine Lippai(Eds). (2009): The Wetlands, Biodiversity and Water quality Status of Lake Tana Sub Basin. Wetlands and Biodiversity Conservation Component of the NileTransboundary Environmental Action Project. Nile Basin Initiative Secretariat.

IFAD/EPLAUA 20007, Community-based Integrated Natural Resources Management In Lake Tana Watershed on, Policies, Institutional and Legal Aspects.Bahir Dar.

IFAD/EPLAUA, 2006, Community Based Integrated Natural Resources Management On Forestry/Agro Forestry/ Soil And Water Conservation In Lake Tana. Bahir Dar.

IFAD/EPLAUA. 2007. Community-based Integrated Natural Resources Management in Lake Tana Watershed on Water Resource, Watershed, Water Harvesting and Land Use. Bahir Dar.

International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN)(1996). A Wetland Classification System for East Africa. Regional Wetland Biodiversity Group Meeting, Mbale, Uganda.

IWMI. (2009). Improved Water and Land Management in the Ethiopian Highlands: Its Impact on Downstream stakeholders Dependent on the Blue Nile; Intermediate Results Dissemination Workshop, February 5-6, 2009, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.

Karanja, F and Lohmann, P., 2000. The contribution of GIS and remote sensing in urban land use negotiation in developing counters, IAPRS, Vol. XXXIII; Amsterdam.

Kebede, S., Travi, Y., Alemayehu, T. and Marc, V. (2006). “Water balance of Lake Tana and its sensitivity to fluctuations in rainfall, Blue Nile Basin, Ethiopia.” Journal of Hydrology 316, 233-247.

Leotaud, N. (2006). Linking tourism to watersheds and people: A preliminary analysis of the potential of the tourism sector to contribute to payments for watershed services in Dunn‟s River, Ocho Rios, Jamaica and Speyside, Tobago. CANARI Who Pays for Water? ProjectDocument No. 3. Caribbean Natural Resources Institute (CANARI), Laventille, Trinidad andTobago and International Institute for Environment and Development, London, UK.

MoARD, Jan.2005.Community Based Participatory Watershed Development: Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.

BoEPLAU Land Use Land Cover Assessment Draft Final Report ADSWE Page 57 Tana sub-basin Integrated Land Use Planning and Environmental Study Project

Molla&Menilk. 2004. Study on Environmental Pollution & Impact Assessment of Lake Tana. Bahir Dar.

NegashAtnafu, EsheteDejen, JacobusVijverberg. 2011. Assessment of the Ecological Status andThreats of Welala and Shesher Wetlands, Lake TanaSub-Basin (Ethiopia); Amhara Tourism and Culture Bureau, Bahir Dar, Ethiopia;Food and Agricultural Organization, Sub-regional Office for Eastern Africa, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia; Department of Aquatic Ecology, Netherlands Institute of Ecology (NIOO-KNAW), Wageningen, The Netherlands.

Nile Basin Initiative. 2009. The biodiversity, wetlands and water quality of the Lake Tana Sub Basin. Bahir Dar.

ReinhardFichtl and AdmasuAdi, 1994. Honey bee flora of Ethiopia. Benedict press, Germany.

SeyoumMengistou. ZerhinWoldu, EmiruSeyoum, EsheteDejen, Samy A. Saber, Wambura John, Bakuneta Chris, BezarhirEmana. 2003. The Biodiversity, Wetlands And Water Quality Of The Lake TanaSub Basin (LTSB).

SMEC (2008). “Hydrological Study of the Tana-Beles sub-basins, main report.” Ministry of Water Resource, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.

Tadesse, A.Seifu, K. and McCartney, M.P. (2009). Simulation of Water Resource Development and Environmental Flows in the Lake Tana Sub-basin. International Water Management Institute (IWMI), Addis Ababa, Ethiopia; Addis Ababa University, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.

UNESCO. 2004. World Water Assessment National Water Development Report for Ethiopia: Addis Ababa

BoEPLAU Land Use Land Cover Assessment Draft Final Report ADSWE Page 58 Tana sub-basin Integrated Land Use Planning and Environmental Study Project

ANNEX I: MAPS AND IMAGES

Figure 24: Land use Land cover map of 1986

BoEPLAU Land Use Land Cover Assessment Draft Final Report ADSWE Page 59 Tana sub-basin Integrated Land Use Planning and Environmental Study Project

Figure 25: Land use Land cover map of 2000

BoEPLAU Land Use Land Cover Assessment Draft Final Report ADSWE Page 60 Tana sub-basin Integrated Land Use Planning and Environmental Study Project

Figure 26: Land use Land cover map of 2014

BoEPLAU Land Use Land Cover Assessment Draft Final Report ADSWE Page 61