New Income Buys for 2019 Dear Friend, the US Economy Continues to We Are Now Fully Into 2019, and the General Stock Market Has Taken a Pause from Grow
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VOL. 30, NO. 2 February 2019 Economy Good, But the Markets…? New Income Buys for 2019 Dear Friend, The US economy continues to We are now fully into 2019, and the general stock market has taken a pause from grow. When the fourth-quarter the aggressive selling. For now, at least, the S&P 500 index is modestly positive. numbers come in, we should see But this doesn’t mean that now is the time to embrace risk. Instead, continue to them cap off a year of healthy focus on the defensive parts of the markets. But the good news is, this doesn’t mean domestic production. And even that you need to sacrifice good and even great rates of return, even as I’ve added with the economy coming off of further safe havens to our model portfolios over the past few months. the boil, most expectations are There are plenty of investments that are now on offer that can not only side- for 2019 to see further upward step much of the risk of the general stock market, but also pay you well. In progress. this issue, I’ll introduce a collection of investments that continue to quietly pay Fueling the economy is the US quarterly dividends that range from 7 to 9% or more. And at the same time, they consumer, who is comfortable to are by default lower-volatility investments that will let you eat well and sleep well keep spending. And businesses not only during the winter months but nicely into the spring and summer. remain generally optimistic and I’ll be starting with a series of curated individual preferred shares from cash willing to make investments to cow companies that will easily make their ample dividend payments. Then I’ll meet consumer demand. While bring in a different class of investments that may be new to you, which I call the initial impact of the corporate minibonds. While they have been around for decades, traders and institutions tax cuts of 2017 on company have paid them little heed, as they were designed, built and brought to the market profits might be ebbing, the for individual investors. But while they might be smaller in price, they are big in lower rates continue to support dependable dividends. I’ll show you a great collection to buy right now. continued gains in after-tax But as I said above, we’re not abandoning growth, as I’ll also show where we profitability (if at a somewhat have plenty of companies that continue to deliver in the model portfolios, all slower pace than last year). while paying nice dividends themselves. But will the markets care? Much So, I’ll start with the lay of the land for the markets and the economy—then of the last quarter of 2018 showed it’s on to the new additions and changes to our portfolios. that less profit growth meant less enthusiasm to buy stocks. And while stocks are recovering so far Growth Strategies in January, it’s getting harder to What Worked Is Still Working see an exuberantly bullish case for For the fourth quarter of 2018 and into where we stand in 2019, it is generally buying. accepted that the overall growth of earnings for the members of the S&P 500 Instead, the best recipe for a Index will slow. successful 2019 is dividends, Right now, Bloomberg’s compiled earnings estimates for the S&P 500 especially from steady companies members show growth for the past year coming in at 16.38%. That is projected focused on maintaining and to drop to 10.15% for 2019 and 7.89% for 2020. With the projected decline in improving margins. This is growth in earnings, it is not surprising that the valuation for the index relative exactly what we’ve been doing to earnings fell over the fourth quarter of 2018. for the last year, and in this issue, This is one of the warnings for growth investors looking for a bet on a repeat we’re expanding the focus on of higher earnings growth, and the reason why many of the stocks that drive higher dividends for better returns the index have fallen along with the other indexes (and the indexed funds and regardless of the general stock ETFs keyed off them) over the past few months. market’s actions. Now, we could just throw in the towel, back further into cash and wait out the bearish general stock market we may well return to in 2019. However, there are plenty of sectors and stocks that aren’t as reliant on ever- higher rates of earnings growth to successfully deliver positive returns for shareholders. (continued) REITs Still Right more than 2.13 times the yield of the the impact of the TCJA on utilities’22.00 Real estate investment trusts (REITs) S&P 500 Index, it is no wonder that profitability. The argument was that were one of the better success stories this remains an ever-more-attractive lower corporate taxes would reduce21.00 for investors last year. From the low sector with improving values and regulated services rates, reflecting for the sector in February 2018 to date, better dividend payouts. This is why lower corporate tax liabilities. That20.00 REITs, as tracked by the Bloomberg US we continue to have so many of the and a fear of spiking interest rates had REITs inside the Total Return Portfolio, some investors fleeing. But as with REITs Index, have delivered a return 19.00 of 12.54% even with the big general as well as in the Incredible Dividend REITs, investors figured out that the market downdraft in the fourth quarter. Machine, the Niche Investments and impact of the TCJA was not going be REITs, of course, aren’t about in real estate funds held in the Model as they feared and that interest rate18.00 fast-track growth, but steady asset MutualS&P 500 FundPrice to Portfolios.Earnings Ratio spikes weren’t on the horizon. appreciation and maximizing lease Since June, utility stocks, as 17.0017.095 Utility Players Prove Out tracked by the S&P Utilities Index, revenues for shareholders. REITs Utilities areSep another sectorDec that is Mar Jun Sep Dec pay out the majority of their profits 2017 have turned in a 201return8 of 11.65%. showing its strength. Like the REITs, Utilities aren’t focused on aggres- to shareholders without the double- last year started out with concerns over taxation challenge of corporate taxes. And in turn, individual investors get a Falling Expectations for Earnings tax break from the TCJA, which allows 22.00 for a deduction of 20% of the dividends paid from their taxable income. 21.00 There are plenty of different REITs because there are plenty of different types of real estate, but in 20.00 general, there is demand for quality properties supporting solid to rising 19.00 rents. This, in turn, is supporting attractive dividend payouts, which are 18.00 supporting improving valuations for S&P 500 Price to Earnings Ratio the REIT stocks. Take a look at the 17.0017.095 growth in the price to earnings for the Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Bloomberg REIT Index in the bottom 2017 2018 chart on this page. Source: Bloomberg Finance, L.P. This graph shows that unlike the REIT Values on the Rise S&P 500 Index, the market for REITs Bloomberg US REIT Index Price to Earnings Ratio is better valuing the underlying 48.00 profits for real estate companies by beginning to bid up values. And yet, 46.00 while the market has been bolstering 44.00 43.401 the shares in this market segment, 42.00 REITs are still a relative value. The average book value for the member 40.00 companies inside the index is only 38.00 sitting at 2.45 times, which is lower 36.00 than recent highs of the past five years by 13.12%. That makes the 34.00 sector still a very good value. 32.00 Mar Jun Sep Dec And with the average dividend yield 2018 2019 for the index sitting at 4.42%, which is Source: Bloomberg Finance, L.P. Neil George’s Profitable Investing® (ISSN 2577-9311) is published monthly by InvestorPlace Media, LLC, 9201 Corporate Blvd., Suite 200, Rockville, MD 20850-3334. Please write or call if you have any questions. Phone: 800/211-8566. Email: [email protected]. Web site: profitableinvesting.investorplace.com Editor: Neil George Chief Executive Officer: Brian Hunt Marketing Director: Mary Southard Managing Editor: David Clarfield Chief Marketing Officer: Brad Hoppmann Marketing Director: Katy Anadale Editorial Coordinator: Wola Odeniran BloombergSenior Designer: US REIT IndexMarc GagarinPrice to Earnings Ratio 48.00 Subscriptions: $249 per year. © 2018 by InvestorPlace Media, LLC, Founding Member of the Newsletter Publishers Association of America. Photocopying, reproduction or quotation strictly prohibited without the written permission of the publisher. While the information provided is based upon sources believed to be reliable, its accuracy cannot be guaranteed, nor can the publication be considered liable for the investment performance of any securities or strategies mentioned. Subscribers should review the full disclaimer and securities holdings disclosure46.00 policy at https://profitableinvesting.investorplace.com/disclaimers-and-disclosures or call 800/219-8592 for a mailed copy. Periodicals postage rates paid at Rockville, MD, and at additional mailing offices. Postmaster: Send address changes to Neil George’s Profitable Investing®, InvestorPlace Media, LLC, 9201 Corporate Blvd., Suite 200, Rockville, MD 20850-3334. 44.00 43.401 2 Profitable Investing | February 2019 | profitableinvesting.investorplace42.00.com 40.00 38.00 36.00 34.00 32.00 Mar Jun Sep Dec 2018 2019 S&P Utilities Index Price to Earnings Ratio 17.50 17.00 16.50 16.395 16.00 Mar Jun Sep Dec 2018 2019 S&P Utilities Index Price to Earnings Ratio 17.50 S&P Preferred Stock Index Total Return 35 30 17.00 25 20 16.50 16.39515 10 16.00 5 Mar Jun Sep Dec 0 2018 2019 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018