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A Preliminary Tsunami Hazard Assessment of The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iii TABLE OF CONTENTS ABSTRACT....................................................................................................................................1 INTRODUCTION ..........................................................................................................................2 Tsunami Wave Height Threshold for Potential Damage............................................................2 Tsunami Hazard Analysis...........................................................................................................3 Assessment of subduction earthquake sources ....................................................................... 3 Assessment of landslide sources ............................................................................................. 6 PACIFIC COAST ...........................................................................................................................7 Earthquake Tsunamis..................................................................................................................7 Far-field tsunamis from Pacific subduction zones.................................................................. 7 Cascadia subduction zone....................................................................................................... 8 Explorer-North America plate boundary.............................................................................. 11 Queen Charlotte margin ....................................................................................................... 12 Local crustal earthquakes..................................................................................................... 14 Landslide Tsunamis ..................................................................................................................17 Local landslides .................................................................................................................... 17 Continental slope landslides................................................................................................. 18 Hawaiian Islands .................................................................................................................. 19 Aleutian Islands .................................................................................................................... 19 ATLANTIC COAST ....................................................................................................................20 Earthquake Tsunamis................................................................................................................20 Gibraltar-Cadiz..................................................................................................................... 20 NE Caribbean: the Puerto Rico trench and the Lesser Antilles ........................................... 23 St. Lawrence Estuary crustal earthquakes............................................................................ 26 Landslide Tsunamis ..................................................................................................................27 Continental slope landslides................................................................................................. 27 Canary Islands...................................................................................................................... 32 Storegga ................................................................................................................................ 33 ARCTIC COAST..........................................................................................................................33 Earthquake Tsunamis................................................................................................................34 Mackenzie thrust ................................................................................................................... 34 Landslide Tsunamis ..................................................................................................................35 Local landslides .................................................................................................................... 35 Continental slope landslides................................................................................................. 36 CUMULATIVE TSUNAMI HAZARD OF THE CANADIAN COASTLINE...........................37 Regional Recommendations .....................................................................................................38 Pacific Coast......................................................................................................................... 38 iv Atlantic Coast........................................................................................................................ 39 Arctic Coast .......................................................................................................................... 39 NOTE ADDED IN PROOF: OCTOBER 27 2012 HAIDA GWAII EVENT..............................40 ACKNOWLEDGMENTS ............................................................................................................40 REFERENCES .............................................................................................................................41 APPENDIX A: GLOSSARY OF RELEVANT TECHNICAL TERMS .....................................98 APPENDIX B: DEFINITION OF FAULT PARAMETERS FOR EARTHQUAKE MAGNITUDE ESTIMATION...................................................................................................108 Fault rupture area ....................................................................................................................108 Slip rate ...................................................................................................................................108 Shear modulus.........................................................................................................................108 APPENDIX C: HAZARD ZONES ............................................................................................110 Pacific .....................................................................................................................................110 Atlantic....................................................................................................................................111 Arctic.......................................................................................................................................111 APPENDIX D: PROBABILISTIC TSUNAMI HAZARD MAPS FOR CANADA FOR VARIOUS TIME PERIODS ......................................................................................................114 APPENDIX E: SOURCE CONTRIBUTIONS TO THE TSUNAMI HAZARD OF EACH ZONE .....................................................................................................................................................119 v LIST OF TABLES Table 1. Damaging coastal tsunamis (from geological sources) documented in Canada............60 Table 2. Tsunami runup relative to Mw predicted from the empirical relations of Abe (1995)...61 Table 3. Probabilities of exceedance of potentially damaging tsunami runup from far-field tsunamis at locations in coastal British Columbia...............................................................62 Table 4. Tide gauge amplitude measurements and ratios of some larger tsunamis at Tofino and Victoria, British Columbia ..................................................................................................62 Table 5. Probabilities of exceedance of potentially damaging runup from tsunamis generated by megathrust earthquakes on the Cascadia subduction zone (M~9.0 long ruptures and M 8 southern ruptures)................................................................................................................63 Table 6. Estimation of earthquake magnitude and recurrence on the Explorer megathrust........63 Table 7. Probabilities of exceedance of potentially damaging runup from tsunamis generated by earthquakes on the Explorer megathrust .............................................................................64 Table 8. Estimation of earthquake magnitude and recurrence on the Queen Charlotte megathrust .............................................................................................................................................64 Table 9. Probabilities of exceedance of potentially damaging runup from tsunamis generated by earthquakes on the Queen Charlotte megathrust.................................................................65 Table 10. Probabilities of exceedance of potentially damaging runup at coastal sites in Juan de Fuca Strait and Georgia Strait from tsunamis generated by earthquakes on local crustal faults ....................................................................................................................................66
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