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Trans Mountain Expansion Project File Number OF-Fac-Oil-T260-2013-03 02 Ref: Hearing Order OH-001-2014 Metro Vancouver Information Request No.1 Supplementary Reference Documents Dated May 9, 2014

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VOLUME 2B: Environment Trans Mountain Expansion Project File Number OF-Fac-Oil-T260-2013-03 02 Ref: Hearing Order OH-001-2014 Metro Vancouver Information Request No.1 Supplementary Reference Documents Dated May 9, 2014

The Earthquake Threat in Southwestern British Columbia: A Geologic Perspective.

Clague, John J.(2002)

Referenced in:

The Earthquake Threat in Southwestern British Columbia: A Geologic Perspective

JOHN J. CLAGUE Department of Earth Sciences, Simon Fraser University, Burnaby, B.C. V5A 1S6, Canada; and Geological Survey of Canada, 101 - 605 Robson Street, Vancouver, B.C. V6B 5J3, Canada, E-mail [email protected]

Abstract. Ten moderate to large (magnitude 6–7) earthquakes have occurred in southwestern British Columbia and northwestern Washington in the last 130 years. A future large earthquake close to Vancouver, Victoria, or Seattle would cause tens of billions of dollars damage and would seriously impact the economies of Canada and the United States. An improved understanding of seismic hazards and risk in the region has been gained in recent years by using geologic data to extend the short period of instrumented seismicity. Geologic studies have demonstrated that historically unprecedented, magnitude 8 to 9 earthquakes have struck the coastal Paciﬁc Northwest on average once every 500 years over the last several thousand years; another earthquake of this size can be expected in the future. Geologic data also provide insights into the likely damaging effects of future large earthquakes in the region. Much of the earthquake damage will result directly from ground shaking, but damage can also be expected from secondary phenomena, including liquefaction, landslides, and tsunamis. Vancouver is at great risk from earthquakes because important infrastructure, including energy and transportation lifelines, probably would be damaged or destroyed by landslides and liquefaction-induced ground failure.

Key words: earthquake, tsunami, hazard, risk, British Columbia

1. Introduction The populated south-coastal region of British Columbia lies at the leading edge of the North America plate, just east of the Juan de Fuca plate, which is subducting beneath, and deforming, the continent (Figure 1). Hemmed in by the sea and mountains of the North America Cordillera, Vancouver, Victoria, and other communities in the region are vulnerable to damage and isolation during a large earthquake. Highways and rail lines, which are the economic arteries of Vancouver, pass through mountain valleys and might be blocked by seismically triggered landslides. Key facilities, including the Vancouver International Airport, a ferry terminal, gas and hydroelectric lines, and critical bridges, might be damaged by earthquake-induced liquefaction, ground settlement, or slope failure. Heightened awareness of seismic hazards, stemming partly from earthquake disasters in the San Francisco area in 1989, Los Angeles in 1994, Kobe, Japan, in 1995, and Turkey and 8 JOHN J. CLAGUE

Figure 1. Tectonic setting of southwestern British Columbia and northwestern Washington. The oceanic Juan de Fuca plate is subducting beneath the continental crust of North America along the Cascadia subduction zone. Subduction and displacement of blocks of the North America plate on crustal faults are responsible for the large earthquakes that occur in the region. THE EARTHQUAKE THREAT IN SOUTHWESTERN BRITISH COLUMBIA 9

Taiwan in 1999, has prompted new concerns about public safety and emergency preparedness. Ten moderate to large (moment magnitude, Mw, 6–7) earthquakes have occurred within 250 km of Vancouver and Victoria during the last 130 years (Rogers, 1998). This statistic alone indicates that the earthquake risk in the region is relatively high. The historic record, however, is short and may misrepresent the actual hazard: an earthquake larger than any in the last 130 years could strike the south coast, seriously damaging one or more cities in the region. The brief instrumented record of seismicity can be extended, albeit incom- pletely, using geologic information. Some coastal sediments in British Columbia, Washington, and elsewhere record past earthquakes. By studying these sediments, geologists have documented large earthquakes that occurred hundreds to thousands of years ago. The geologic information, together with new data obtained through geodetic and other geophysical studies, has improved our understanding of seismic hazards in southwestern British Columbia. It is now known, for example, that the region experiences infrequent, great (Mw 8–9) earthquakes that have no historic precedent. Geologic studies have also provided new insights into how the ground responds to seismic shaking and have shown that future earthquake damage will be strongly inﬂuenced by local soil conditions. The objectives of this paper are (1) to evaluate the earthquake threat to south- coastal British Columbia based on historic seismicity and geologic evidence, and (2) to show how geologic information contributes to a better understanding of earthquake hazards and risk in this region.

2. Tectonic Setting Earthquakes in southwestern British Columbia result from interactions of the Pa- ciﬁc, North America, and Juan de Fuca plates (Figure 1; Riddihough, 1977), and from internal deformation of the North America plate (Wells et al., 1998). The Juan de Fuca plate is moving eastward beneath North America along a subduction zone that extends along the coast from northern California to central Vancouver Island (Cascadia subduction zone). Five lines of evidence indicate that subduction is occurring in the region: (1) a zone of earthquakes at 35-80 km depth, distinct from crustal earthquakes, is inclined downward to the east from the coast (Cros- son, 1983; Rogers, 1983; Cockerham, 1984; Taber and Smith, 1985); (2) an active chain of andesitic volcanoes extends from northern California to southern British Columbia (McBirney and White, 1982); (3) a zone of low heat ﬂux lies oceanward of the volcanic chain (Blackwell et al., 1982; Hyndman, 1984); (4) the pattern of free-air and Bouguer gravity anomalies is consistent with subduction (Riddihough, 1979); and (5) an accretionary wedge of deformed Tertiary and Quaternary sediments occurs at the continental margin where the converging plates meet. Current vertical and horizontal movements of the land surface are consistent with a locked subduction zone, in which strain is accumulating that will ultimately be released 10 JOHN J. CLAGUE

Figure 2. Epicenters of earthquakes in southwestern British Columbia and northwestern Washington from 1980 through 1991 (Rogers, 1998, Figure 3; data from Geological Survey of Canada and University of Washington). Dot size is proportional to magnitude. The smallest plotted earthquakes are magnitude 1; the largest earthquake is a magnitude 5.2 offshore event. Earthquakes within the corridor outlined by the rectangle are plotted in Figure 4. Stars are Quaternary volcanoes. during one or more large plate-boundary earthquakes (Hyndman and Wang, 1993, 1995; Dragert et al., 1994; Dragert and Hyndman, 1995). Large earthquakes also occur on faults within the North America plate. Most of these earthquakes are probably caused by northerly clockwise rotation of a large crustal block against the southern Coast Mountains of British Columbia (Wells et al., 1998). The movement results in a dominant north-south compressional regime within the crust, which is very different from the northeast convergence of the Juan de Fuca and North America plates. Crustal earthquakes commonly occur along east-trending reverse faults (e.g., Johnson et al., 1996) or northwest-trending complex structures.

3. Historic Seismicity More than 200 earthquakes occur each year in southwestern British Columbia, making it one of Canada’s most seismically active regions (Figure 2; Rogers, 1998). Nearly all of these earthquakes are too small to be felt, but one capable of major structural damage (Mw 6 or larger) has happened, on average, once every 15 years during the last century (Table I). THE EARTHQUAKE THREAT IN SOUTHWESTERN BRITISH COLUMBIA 11 Columbia and Victoria Vancouver Island at Vancouver and Victoria Vancouver, Victoria, and Kelowna 5.57.4 Gulf Island6.0 region; felt strongly at Washington Vancouver and state Victoria south of Hope, B.C.; Gulf felt Island5.5 region; throughout felt strongly most at Vancouver of and Victoria settled British Gulf Island region; felt strongly at Vancouver and Victoria 7.0 Southern Puget Lowland; much damage in Seattle and Tacoma, felt at Vancouver 5.5 Felt by many at Vancouver ∼ ∼ ∼ ∼ ∼ ∼ Signiﬁcant earthquakes felt in the Vancouver and Victoria areas W W W W 7.0W W West coast ofW Vancouver Island; 6.2 feltW at 6.4 Vancouver, damage on 7.3 west coastW Southern Puget of Lowland Southern Puget Lowland W Central Vancouver Island; muchW damage on central 6.3 Vancouver Island, feltW strongly 6.5W 5.3 WesternW Vancouver Island 5.0 BeneathW Seattle; much damage 5.5 in Seattle, felt Beneath by Pender most Island; at 6.8 felt Vancouver and by Victoria most East at of Vancouver Seattle; and felt Victoria by many at West of Vancouver and Seattle; Victoria felt by some at Southwest Vancouver and Victoria of Seattle; much damage in Seattle, Tacoma, and Olympia; felt at ◦ ◦ ◦ ◦ ◦ ◦ ◦ ◦ ◦ ◦ ◦ ◦ ◦ ◦ ◦ W Table I. ◦ N, 123.0 N, 121.0 N, 128.8 N, 126.2 N, 123.0 N, 122.6 N, 122.9 N, 125.3 N, 123.0 N, 127.0 N, 122.3 N, 123.4 N, 121.9 N, 123.5 N, 122.9 ◦ ◦ ◦ ◦ ◦ ◦ ◦ ◦ ◦ ◦ ◦ ◦ ◦ ◦ ◦ N, 123 ◦ January 11, 1909 48.7 December 16, 1957 49.6 DateOctober 29, 1864 48.0 Epicenter Magnitude Comment January 24, 1920 48.6 April 13, 1949 47.1 February 15, 1946June 23, 1946 47.3 49.8 April 29, 1965May 16, 1976May 3, 1996 47.4 July 3, 1999 48.8 February 28, 2001 47.8 47.1 47.1 December 15, 1872 48.5 December 6, 1918 49.4 September 17, 1926 50 November 13, 1939 47.4 12 JOHN J. CLAGUE

Figure 3. Modified Mercalli Intensity maps of the 1872 northern Washington and 1946 Van- couver Island earthquakes (modified from Rogers, 1980, Figure 1, and Shedlock and Weaver, 1991, Figure 5). Most damage occurred within zones VII and VII. These earthquakes occurred at times when the population and economic infrastructure of the Pacific Northwest were much smaller than today.

The most recent large earthquake in southwestern British Columbia, in 1946, was a magnitude 7.3 event centered northwest of Courtenay on Vancouver Island (Figure 3; Rogers and Hasegawa, 1978). Although widely felt throughout British Columbia, damage was limited because the area of strongest shaking was sparsely populated. In towns nearest the epicenter, chimneys fell, windows broke, and walls cracked. Roads and water and utility lines were also damaged. The earthquake triggered hundreds of small landslides (Mathews, 1979), and liquefaction-induced ground failure was common (Rogers, 1980). Were a comparable earthquake to occur today near Vancouver, damage would likely be in the tens of billions of dollars (Munich Reinsurance Company of Canada, 1992). THE EARTHQUAKE THREAT IN SOUTHWESTERN BRITISH COLUMBIA 13

Figure 4. Distribution of earthquakes along a cross-section through southwestern British Columbia where the Juan de Fuca plate is subducting beneath the North America plate (Clague, 1996, Figure 4; modiﬁed from Dragert et al., 1994, Figure 1). Earthquakes within a 100-km-wide band have been projected onto the cross-section, which extends from the continental shelf across Vancouver Island, through the Strait of Georgia and Vancouver, and into the southernmost Coast Mountains (Figure 2). Circle sizes are proportional to magnitude. Earthquakes occur in continental crust at depths less than 30 km and as deep as 80 km within the downgoing plate. No earthquakes, however, have been detected on the thrust fault that ◦ separates the two plates. The short-dashed line shows the 350 Cisotherm.

Damaging earthquakes in southwestern British Columbia occur within the North America plate (crustal earthquakes), within the subducting Juan de Fuca plate (intraplate or subcrustal earthquakes), and along the thrust fault separating the North America and Juan de Fuca plates (plate-boundary or subduction earthquakes) (Figure 4; Shedlock and Weaver, 1991; Rogers, 1998). Crustal earthquakes include, but are not limited to, moderate to large events with foci beneath central Vancouver Island, perhaps on the transform fault that forms the north end of the Juan de Fuca plate. All historic earthquakes in southwestern British Columbia and northwestern Washington have been crustal and intraplate events. Crustal earthquakes are more common north of about 49◦ north latitude, whereas intraplate earthquakes are more common to the south, in northwestern Washington (Figure 5).

4. Plate-Boundary Earthquakes The North America – Juan de Fuca plate boundary is presently aseismic, but geophysical evidence demonstrates that it is locked, accumulating strain, and thus capable of very large earthquakes (see Clague, 1997 for review). Considerable geologic evidence, summarized below, shows that great plate-boundary earthquakes have occurred many times in the last several thousand years, most recently 300 years ago. Although the source of these great earthquakes is 100–200 km from Victoria, Vancouver, Seattle, and other coastal cities in the Paciﬁc Northwest, the amount of energy they release is so large that damage would be considerable. 14 JOHN J. CLAGUE

Figure 5. Epicenters of intraplate (subcrustal) earthquakes with focal depths of 50 km or more from 1980 through 1991 (Rogers, 1998, Figure 7). These earthquakes are a subset of those shown in Figure 2. The smallest earthquakes are magnitude 1; the largest is magnitude 3.9.

Geologic evidence for great plate-boundary earthquakes has been found in tidal marshes and low-elevation bogs and lakes on the Paciﬁc coast from Vancouver Island to northern California (Clague, 1997). This evidence is of three types: (1) buried marsh and forest soils attributed to coseismic subsidence of the crust; (2) sheets of sand and gravel deposited by tsunamis; and (3) dykes and mounds of sand and silt produced by seismically induced liquefaction. THE EARTHQUAKE THREAT IN SOUTHWESTERN BRITISH COLUMBIA 15

4.1. BURIED SOILS Sediments in tidal marshes on western Vancouver Island record a large earthquake and tsunami 300 years ago (Clague and Bobrowsky, 1994a, 1994b, 1999). A buried peaty soil, similar to the present-day marsh soil, is sharply overlain by a sheet of sand and by intertidal mud. Foraminifera (Guilbault et al., 1995, 1996), diatoms, and vascular plants show that the subsurface peaty soil was submerged suddenly, almost certainly due to coseismic subsidence. Similar stratigraphic sequences of the same age have been reported from more than a dozen estuaries along the Paciﬁc coasts of Washington, Oregon, and northern California, suggesting that an earthquake caused many hundred kilometers of the Paciﬁc coast to subside (Atwater et al., 1995; Nelson et al., 1995; Clague, 1997). The inferred pattern of subsidence is analogous to the widespread subsidence of great historic earthquakes at subduction zones in south-central Alaska, southern Chile, and Japan (Nelson et al., 1995). The earthquake has been dated to the winter of 1699-1700 by studying the rings of trees that it killed and injured (Jacoby et al., 1997; Yamaguchi et al., 1997). It has been more precisely dated to January 26, 1700, from written records of its tsunami in Japan (Satake et al., 1996). Other similar buried soils, which record older plate-boundary earthquakes, are present in tidal marshes in Washington and Oregon (Figure 6; Atwater and Hemphill-Haley, 1997) but have not been found in British Columbia. Their absence in British Columbia does not mean that this region was spared from great subduction zone earthquakes. Rather, the geologic evidence of the older earthquakes has been destroyed or obscured by gradual uplift, which is occuring at a rate of about 1 m per thousand years on the west coast of Vancouver Island (Clague et al., 1982; Friele and Hutchinson, 1993). The uplift gradually raises tidal marshes above the limit of tides and thus out of the zone where they can record coseismic subsidence and tsunamis (Clague, 1997; Hutchinson et al., 1997).

4.2. TSUNAMI DSPOSITS Tsunami sand mantles the A.D. 1700 buried soil in British Columbia (Figure 7; Clague and Bobrowsky, 1994b; Benson et al., 1997), Washington (Atwater, 1987, 1992; Atwater and Yamaguchi, 1991), and Oregon (Darienzo and Peterson, 1990; Darienzo et al., 1994). It occurs as a sheet that thins and ﬁnes away from the coast and commonly contains marine fossils indicative of deposition by landward- directed ﬂow (Benson et al., 1997). Stems and leaves of fossil plants rooted in the soil are covered by, or extend into, the overlying sand, implying that deposition occurred no more than a few years after the soil subsided. This relationship demonstrates that the tsunami and subsidence were caused by the same phenomenon, namely an earthquake. Tsunami deposits attributed to pre-A.D. 1700 plate-boundary earthquakes are present in some coastal lakes and at least one tidal marsh on western Vancouver Island (Clague and Bobrowsky, 1994b; Clague et al., 1997, 1999; Hutchinson et 16 JOHN J. CLAGUE

Figure 6. Land-level, vegetation, and soil changes at an estuary in southwestern Washington where there is evidence for seven large earthquakes in the last 3500 years (Clague, 1997; modiﬁed from Atwater and Hemphill-Haley, 1997, Figure 15). Each buried soil, shown as a lettered horizontal line in the stratigraphic columns, records an earthquake that caused at least 0.5 m of subsidence. Soils are separated by muds deposited between earthquakes. The age ranges of the earthquakes are based on radiocarbon ages. al., 1997, 2000). They have also been found at marshes and lakes in Oregon (Kelsey et al., 1994; Nelson et al., 1996) and at a tidal marsh in Washington at the east end of Juan de Fuca Strait (Williams and Hutchinson, 2000).

4.3. LIQUEFACTION FEATURES Sand dykes and blows attributed to the A.D. 1700 earthquake have been found along the lower Columbia River at the border between Washington and Oregon. River banks up to 60 km from the coast expose sand that ﬂowed upward along fractures and onto a vegetated surface that subsided during the earthquake (Ober- meier, 1995; Obermeier and Dickenson, 1997). Shaking from great earthquakes also has been inferred from Holocene, deep-sea turbidites off the Washington and Oregon coasts (Adams, 1990; Nelson et al., 2000).

5. Crustal Earthquakes Geologic evidence has been found for other large earthquakes close to Vancouver. Sudden land-level change about 3500 and 1700 years ago has been inferred from sediments at tidal marshes and bogs south of Vancouver and near Victoria (Math- ewes and Clague, 1994). The older earthquake produced minor subsidence on southern Vancouver Island and perhaps uplift in the Vancouver area. This pattern of THE EARTHQUAKE THREAT IN SOUTHWESTERN BRITISH COLUMBIA 17

Figure 7. Tsunami sand overlying an eroded peaty soil in a pit dug in a tidal marsh near Toﬁno, British Columbia. The sand was deposited by the tsunami of the great earthquake of January 1700. (Photo by J.J. Clague).

deformation is consistent with the deformation expected for a great plate-boundary earthquake, but it could equally well result from a large crustal earthquake in the southern Strait of Georgia. The younger earthquake produced subsidence from Victoria to Vancouver, but it is particularly well recorded in several exposures along Serpentine River south of Vancouver, where a woody freshwater peat is abruptly overlain by intertidal mud (Mathewes and Clague, 1994; Clague, 1996; Clague et al., 1998a). At one of the Serpentine River sites, submergence can be linked to injection and venting of silt. Stratigraphic relations show that injection and venting occurred at the same time as submergence and suggest that both phenomena are seismic in origin. Sand dykes and blows are common on the Fraser River delta just north of Serpentine River (Clague et al., 1992, 1998a; Naesgaard et al., 1992). Liquefaction and upward ﬂow of sand and water deformed a capping layer of mud, causing the delta plain to subside locally (Figure 8). At least some of the sand dykes and blows formed 1600- 1700 years ago at about the same time as the subsidence event at Serpentine River. Signiﬁcant coseismic subsidence would not be expected in the Vancouver area from a plate-boundary earthquake. The most likely source of this earthquake is thus a fault in the North America plate. 18 JOHN J. CLAGUE

Figure 8. Proﬁle of sand dykes and “sand blows” exposed in the shallow wall of an excavation on the Fraser River delta south of Vancouver (Clague, 1996, Figure 50). Vented sand forming the sand blows directly overlies a brown soil. Note the vertical displacement of the soil and the subjacent mud along the two main feeder dykes.

Table II. Comparison of average recurrence and affected area for different earthquakes in southwestern British Columbia and northwestern Washington

Type and size of earthquake Average recurrence1 Area of damage1 (moment magnitude) (years) (km2)

Subduction, Mw 8–9+ 500 100,000 Crustal/intraplate, Mw 7–7.5 30–40 20,000 Crustal/intraplate, Mw 6 20 5,000 Crustal/intraplate, Mw 5 5 1,000

1 Values are approximate.

Large earthquakes may occur on crustal faults near cities in the Paciﬁc Northw- est. A notable example, documented through careful geologic work, is a prehistoric earthquake on the Seattle fault, which extends beneath Puget Sound and Seattle. The earthquake produced up to 7 m of coseismic uplift (Bucknam et al., 1992) and triggered a large tsunami in Puget Sound (Atwater and Moore, 1992) (Figure 9).

6. Earthquake Recurrence The record of historic seismicity, although brief, may be used to estimate recurrence of moderate and large crustal and intraplate earthquakes. This record indicates that a magnitude 7 earthquake can be expected somewhere in southwestern British Columbia or northern Washington approximately once every 30–40 years, a magnitude 6 earthquake once about every 20 years, and a magnitude 5 earthquake once every 5 years (Table II). Earthquakes smaller than magnitude 5 are common, but most cause little or no damage. Radiocarbon ages on plant fossils collected from buried soils and overlying tsunami deposits in southwestern Washington indicate that the average recurrence interval for great plate-boundary earthquakes in Cascadia is about 500 years (Fig- ure 6, Table II; Atwater and Hemphill-Haley, 1997). Intervals between successive THE EARTHQUAKE THREAT IN SOUTHWESTERN BRITISH COLUMBIA 19

Figure 9. Top: LIDAR image of part of Bainbridge Island in Puget Sound, showing glacially streamlined topography offset along the Seattle fault (arrowed). Slip along the fault about 1000 years ago raised a wave-cut terrace 7 m above sea level (bottom). plate-boundary earthquakes, however, differ considerably. Three earthquakes occurred between 3500–3320 and 2800–2400 years ago; their mean recurrence is thus more than 270 years but less than 550 years. An interval of 700–1300 years separated the youngest of these three events from the next recognized earthquake, which dates to sometime between 1700 and 1500 years ago. Two earthquakes occurred 1350–1130 and 1300–900 years ago; after this, a period of 600–1000 years elapsed before the most recent earthquake 300 years ago.

7. Effects of a Large Earthquake Historic large earthquakes in southwestern British Columbia and northern Wash- ington, especially those on Vancouver Island in 1946 (M 7.3), at Seattle in 1965 (M 6.5), and near Olympia in 2001 (M 6.8) provide insights into the likely damaging effects of future earthquakes in this region. Observations from historic earthquakes are supplemented by geologically based inferences about the effects of great plate-boundary earthquakes. Collectively, the data suggest that a great plate-boundary earthquake or a large, crustal or intraplate earthquake centered near 20 JOHN J. CLAGUE any of the large cities in Paciﬁc Northwest will cause tens of billions of dollars damage (Munich Reinsurance Company, 1992). Much of the damage will result from ground shaking, which will vary in intensity over the region’s geologically and topographically diverse landscape. Considerable damage will also result from secondary phenomena, including liquefaction, landslides, and tsunamis.

7.1. GROUND MOTION AMPLIFICATION The ground surface response to seismic shaking of sediments may differ markedly from that of bedrock. Seismic waves also differ in their velocities depending on the type of unconsolidated sediments they pass through. Shear-wave velocities in sediments overridden by Pleistocene glaciers, for example, are much higher than those in postglacial alluvial and deltaic sediments. Potential adverse effects of seismic shaking on sediments include ground motion amplification and liquefaction. Thick Holocene sediments prone to ground motion amplification are common in the Vancouver and Victoria metropolitan areas. The delta plain of the Fraser River, for example, is underlain by up to 235 m of loose, water-saturated, clay, silt, and sand of Holocene age (Clague et al., 1998b). The response of the Fraser delta to seismic shaking is of particular concern because it supports a large population (200,000 people), as well as critical transportation, energy, and communication lines. Modeling of ground motion amplification in this area suggests that low amplitude, long-period seismic waves would be amplified by the thick deltaic sediments (Harris et al., 1998). However, high-amplitude, short-period waves, which are most destructive to small structures, would be amplified only along the margins of the delta where Holocene deltaic sediments thin against adjacent Pleistocene uplands and in a few other places. The modeling highlights the importance of the depth of the top of the Pleistocene glacial succession beneath the Fraser delta to seismic ground motion intensities. Other factors may also influence surface ground motions. A poorly understood, but probably important factor is topography. Seismic waves may reflect or refract off steep slopes, which are common in the large metropolitan areas of southwestern British Columbia. Incoming, refracted, and reflected waves may locally resonate, greatly increasing the damage they do.

7.2. LIQUEFACTION Liquefaction involves the transformation of saturated, non-cohesive sediment from a solid into a liquid state. Pore-water pressure increases and grain-to-grain contact forces decrease. As the contact forces among grains approach zero, individual grains become suspended in pore water. The sediment then loses most of its strength and behaves essentially as a fluid. The liquefied sediment may flow upward along fractures to the surface where it accumulates as mounds. Liquefac- THE EARTHQUAKE THREAT IN SOUTHWESTERN BRITISH COLUMBIA 21

Figure 10. Known sites of soil failure during the magnitude 7.3, 1946 Vancouver Island earthquake (Clague, 1996, Figure 42; modified from Rogers, 1980, Figures 1 and 2). Data such as these provide insights into the effects and damage likely to be experienced during a future earthquake of similar magnitude. tion may be accompanied by lateral spreading, ground subsidence, and a loss of sediment-bearing capacity. Liquefaction was common in the epicentral area of the 1946 Vancouver Island earthquake, mainly along the shoreline of eastern Vancouver Island (Figure 10; Hodgson, 1946; Rogers, 1980). The greatest damage was to a fish cannery 100 km south-southeast of the epicenter. Pilings supporting the cannery settled in liquefied sediment during 30 seconds of strong shaking, necessitating US $100,000 in repairs (1946 dollars). Liquefaction has accompanied other historic earthquakes in the region, including a magnitude 7 quake at Olympia, Washington, in 1949, and the earthquake at Seattle in 1965. One of the lessons learned from these events is that liquefaction will cause considerable damage during any future large earthquake near an urban center in southwestern British Columbia. Areas that are vulnerable to liquefaction can be identified through surface and subsurface geologic studies. Areas of highest hazard in and around Vancouver include the Fraser River delta and floodplain, smaller deltas, landfill sites, and shorelines (Watts et al., 1992). Geological engineers have conducted extensive 22 JOHN J. CLAGUE tests of Fraser delta sediments to determine how they would respond to seismic shaking (Robertson et al., 2000; and references therein). The studies indicate that liquefiable sediments are widespread at shallow depth beneath much of the Fraser delta plain. The liquefiable sediments include modern and recent channel sands and a thick sheet of distributary channel sands deposited by the Fraser River during middle and late Holocene time (Monahan et al., 1993). The British Columbia Geological Survey has produced earthquake hazards maps that show the susceptibility of populated areas to liquefaction, ground motion amplification, and landslides (Levson et al., 1996; Monahan et al., 2000). These maps are similar in design to maps produced by the U.S. Geological Survey for urban areas in Washington and Oregon.

7.3. LANDSLIDES

Ground shaking during earthquakes may trigger landslides that damage or destroy buildings and bridges, bury roads and rail lines, and kill and injure people. The 1976 Guatemala earthquake (M 7.5), for example, caused more than 10,000 landslides that claimed hundreds of lives over an area of approximately 16,000 km2, and severely disrupted road and rail trafﬁc (Harp et al., 1981). Rockfalls and small slides may be triggered by small (M 4–5) earthquakes (Keefer, 1984). In contrast, large rock and soil slides and lateral spreads generally occur only during large earthquakes. A relation also exists between earthquake magnitude and the areal extent of landsliding (Keefer, 1984): the affected area increases from 0 for a magnitude 3–4 quake to 500,000 km2 for a magnitude 9 event. The 1946 Vancouver Island earthquake (M 7.3) triggered more than 300 landslides over an area of about 20,000 km2 (Mathews, 1979), providing some indication as to what might happen during a future earthquake of this magnitude. Most of the landslides in 1946 were rockfalls and small rock and soil slides on steep slopes. Similar slope failures can be expected in the southern Coast Moun- tains should a large earthquake strike close to Vancouver. The main highways, rail lines, and energy transmission lines in southwestern British Columbia pass through valleys and canyons in the Coast Mountains, and probably would be blocked by landslides during a strong earthquake. Numerous blockages over a large area would disrupt economic activity and restrict access to Vancouver. In this context, even small landslides, which are the vast majority of those triggered by earthquakes, can be severely disruptive. Landslides might not be as great a problem in the Vancouver and Victoria urban areas because the relief there is not as large as in the mountains. There are, however, some steep slopes in Vancouver and Victoria that might slump or slide during an earthquake. In addition, liquefaction could trigger destructive lateral spreads on the Fraser River delta and ﬂoodplain. THE EARTHQUAKE THREAT IN SOUTHWESTERN BRITISH COLUMBIA 23

Figure 11. The village of Hot Springs Cove, on Vancouver Island, shortly after the tsunami of the great Alaska earthquake of March 1964. (Photo by Charles Ford).

7.4. TSUNAMIS

The only destructive historic tsunami in British Columbia was triggered by the great Alaska earthquake in March 1964. The tsunami damaged several communities on Vancouver Island but had no impact elsewhere in British Columbia (Figure 11; Wigen and White, 1964; Murty and Boilard, 1970). Areas in British Columbia most vulnerable to far-travelled Pacific tsunamis such as this are the central mainland coast and the west coasts of Vancouver Island (Figure 12) and the Queen Charlotte Islands. The highly developed coastline of the Strait of Georgia is not threatened by far-travelled Pacific tsunamis. The next great plate-boundary earthquake at the Cascadia subduction zone will probably produce a very destructive tsunami. Maximum wave amplitudes on the west coast of Vancouver Island for a simulated magnitude 8.5 earthquake that ruptures the northern section of the subduction zone are about 5 m (Ng et al., 1991). Amplification, up to a factor of three, is likely for some inlets on western Vancouver Island (Figure 12). Much energy will be lost as the tsunami moves through narrow passages connecting Juan de Fuca Strait to Puget Sound and the Strait of Georgia, and tsunami amplitudes will be reduced to 1 m or less by the time the waves reach Seattle and Vancouver (Figure 12; Hebenstreit and Murty, 1989). Of course, the tsunami will be superimposed on the tides, which in southwestern British Columbia have a range of up to 5 m. A positive sea-level displacement at low tide will have much less impact than one at high tide. However, the tsunami of a Cascadia subduction zone earthquake will persist through a tidal cycle, thus extreme water levels will likely combine tsunami and tidal effects (Ng et al., 1991). 24 JOHN J. CLAGUE

Figure 12. Generalized tsunami hazard map for south-coastal British Columbia based on the distribution of tsunami deposits and numerical modeling of wave heights (Clague et al., 2000, Figure 13. The map shows four generalized hazard zones, as well as sites with evidence for large prehistoric tsunamis and maximum wave heights of the 1964 Alaska tsunami. Details on three important recent tsunamis are given at the bottom.

A tsunami generated at the Cascadia subduction zone will reach the British Columbia coast soon after the shaking stops. The ﬁrst wave will strike western Vancouver Island in minutes to, at most, one hour (Hebenstreit and Murty, 1989; Murty, 1992). Travel times to Victoria and Vancouver might be as little as 1.5 and 3 hours, respectively. In contrast, the 1964 Alaska tsunami arrived on the west coast of Vancouver Island about 5 hours after the earthquake. THE EARTHQUAKE THREAT IN SOUTHWESTERN BRITISH COLUMBIA 25

A damaging tsunami could also be triggered by a large earthquake within the North America plate. Locally generated tsunami waves could damage areas that are not vulnerable to tsunamis of distant earthquakes. As mentioned before, a crustal earthquake near Seattle about 1000 years ago triggered a large tsunami in Puget Sound (Atwater and Moore, 1992). Wave run-ups in Puget Sound near the epicenter may have equaled those of large, far-traveled tsunamis on the exposed, outer coast. No evidence has yet been found around the Strait of Georgia for such a large, locally triggered tsunami, but deposits of prehistoric tsunamis attributed to crustal earthquakes recently have been reported from Whidbey Island at the east end of Juan de Fuca Strait (Williams and Hutchinson, 2000).

7.5. OTHER EFFECTS Land level may change during a large earthquake. Docks, wharfs, and other coastal infrastructure may be elevated above sea level or, alternatively, submerged. Geo- detic data and comparisons with other subduction zones suggest that the west coast of Vancouver Island may subside about 1 m during the next great earthquake at the Cascadia subduction zone. The subsidence will increase the damage produced by the tsunami that immediately follows the earthquake. Rupture during large crustal earthquakes may extend to the ground surface, directly damaging structures located on the faults. No historic earthquake in Brit- ish Columbia or Washington has ruptured the surface, but a large earthquake on the Seattle fault about 1000 years ago produced meters of uplift (Figure 9) and subsidence.

8. Earthquake Risk

8.1. PLATE-BOUNDARY EARTHQUAKES The severity of shaking during a future Cascadia plate-boundary earthquake will depend, to a large degree, on the extent and geometry of the rupture. Although few doubt that great plate-boundary earthquakes occur in the Pacific Northwest, rupture lengths along the subduction zone are poorly constrained. The entire 1000- km length of the subduction zone may rupture, as happened in Chile in 1960. Such an earthquake might exceed moment magnitude 9 (Rogers, 1988) and would damage all coastal cities in the Pacific Northwest. Geologic data (Atwater et al., 1991; Nelson et al., 1995; Jacoby et al., 1997; Yamaguchi et al., 1997), and historic records from Japan (Satake et al., 1996) suggest that the last earthquake, in A.D. 1700, did rupture the entire length of the subduction zone and thus was at least a magnitude 9 event. Some earthquakes, however, probably rupture shorter lengths of the subduction zone, 100 km to several hundred kilometers in length, producing moment magnitude 8 earthquakes. This is likely if the subduction zone is segmented and strain is accumulating at different rates in different areas. Shorter ruptures may be 26 JOHN J. CLAGUE facilitated by the fact that the orientation of the subduction zone changes from northwest-southeast off Vancouver Island to north-south off Washington, coin- ciding with a change in the rate and direction of convergence. In addition, the subducting Juan de Fuca plate arches upward beneath southern and central Puget Sound (Weaver and Baker, 1988). Beneath southwestern Washington, the plate dips to the east, whereas in northwestern Washington and southwestern British Columbia, it dips to the northeast. Finally, zones of complex plate interaction at the north and south ends of the Juan de Fuca plate complicate the tectonic regime. Earthquakes smaller than moment magnitude 8, which rupture less than 100 km of the plate boundary, are much less likely than larger quakes. The 40–50 mm a−1 convergence of the Juan de Fuca and North America plates requires that such small ruptures occur frequently (Dragert et al., 1994), once every hundred years or less, and none has happened in the past 150 years. Segmentation is an important issue in evaluating the threat posed by plate- boundary earthquakes. A magnitude 9 earthquake releases about 30 times the energy of a magnitude 8 event and thus damages a much larger area. Nonetheless, although all cities in southwestern British Columbia would likely be damaged by a magnitude 9 earthquake, the intensity of shaking in many areas might actually be less than that of a nearby, large, crustal earthquake. Strong shaking, however, would last much longer during a subduction earthquake, probably 1–3 minutes, as opposed to 30 seconds or less during a strong local quake. A magnitude 8 earthquake would affect a smaller total area than a magnitude 9 event. Shaking might not last as long, but would still be severe along the coast adjacent to the rupture. Although a magnitude 8 earthquake at the southern end of the subduction zone might have little effect on Vancouver, a succession of such earthquakes, rupturing different parts of the subduction zone over a period of days to perhaps years, might produce as much damage to the entire coastal Pacific Northwest as a single magnitude 9 event. A particularly disturbing prospect is that a magnitude 8 earthquake would not fully release the accumulated strain along part of the plate boundary and would lead to another earthquake in the same area a short time later, destroying already damaged and weakened buildings. The fear of a second or third large earthquake might impede reconstruction and resumption of normal economic activity and life in cities affected by the first earthquake. The severity of shaking during great Cascadia earthquakes also depends on the location and extent of the locked portion of the plate boundary, which is where the earthquakes nucleate. Geophysical modeling suggests that the locked zone is narrow and shallow off Vancouver Island, where the subducting plate is relatively hot and steep and is mantled by thick sediments; it probably lies beneath the continental slope and outer shelf, some 200 km from Vancouver (Hyndman and Wang, 1993). In contrast, the locked zone may be wider and closer to the coast off Washington, where the subducting plate is slightly cooler and dips more gently. A great subduction earthquake would contain much energy at long periods, thereby posing a threat to long-period structures such as bridges and high-rise THE EARTHQUAKE THREAT IN SOUTHWESTERN BRITISH COLUMBIA 27

Figure 13. Dates of large (M 6–7), historical earthquakes in southwestern British Columbia and northwestern Washington (modiﬁed from Clague, 1996, Figure 89). buildings. In contrast, large local crustal earthquakes pose a greater threat to smaller structures that respond to short-period motions. Intervals between successive great Cascadia earthquakes have ranged from perhaps as little as 100 years to more than 1000 years, making it difﬁcult to estimate the time of the next event. Recurrence intervals are also poorly known, because the number and ages of earthquakes are uncertain (Atwater et al., 1995). These uncertainties result in a broad range of probabilities, from a few percent to perhaps 30 percent, that a great earthquake will occur somewhere along the Cascadia subduction zone in the next 50 years.

8.2. LOCAL EARTHQUAKES Examination of the brief historic record of earthquakes in southwestern British Columbia and northwestern Washington indicates that the next large (magnitude 6–7) earthquake is likely to happen within 20 years and is almost certain to occur within 50 years. It is not possible to predict the time or location of this earthquake. Efforts to do so are thwarted by an inadequate understanding of the link between historic seismicity on the one hand and geologic structure and tectonics on the other. The record of instrumented earthquakes does suggest, however, that large crustal and intraplate earthquakes do not occur randomly throughout the region. The three largest earthquakes in southwestern British Columbia in the twentieth century have been relatively shallow events beneath central Vancouver Island. In contrast, most earthquakes of similar size in northwestern Washington have been deep events, with foci in the Juan de Fuca plate. Five of these earthquakes were centered in the central and southern Puget Lowland. There was only one magnitude 6 earthquake in the northern Puget Lowland in the twentieth century (1909) and none beneath the Strait of Georgia, although a magnitude 5.4 earthquake occurred deep under Pender Island in 1976. Similarly, large historic earthquakes in the region have not been evenly spaced in time (Figure 13; Table I). Five magnitude 6–7 earthquakes occurred between 1946 and 1957, but there has been only one such earthquake since 1965. Modified Mercalli Intensity plots of historic earthquakes (Figure 3) show that a magnitude 7 event can produce significant damage within 50–100 km of the epicenter. In contrast, the radius of widespread damage for a magnitude 6 event is only 20-50 km. Damage that might result from a future magnitude 6–7 earthquake 28 JOHN J. CLAGUE would, of course, depend on the location of the focus. Obviously, a magnitude 7 earthquake beneath the southern Strait of Georgia, within 50 km of Vancouver, would be much more damaging than one on central Vancouver Island some 200 km away. And a large shallow crustal earthquake beneath Victoria would probably be more damaging than a deeper intraplate earthquake in the same area because of the shorter travel distance of seismic waves produced by the former. A study of the economic impact of a hypothetical, magnitude 6.5 crustal earthquake with a focus 10 km beneath Vancouver provides some idea of the damage that could be expected from a large earthquake in the region. The study concluded that the total economic loss from such an earthquake would be between Can $14 and $32 billion (1992 dollars; Munich Reinsurance Company of Canada, 1992). Ground motions and secondary effects, particularly landslides, liquefaction, and fire, would cause much of the damage during a large earthquake. Closure of critical roads, rail lines, bridges, airports, and communication facilities might delay recovery and resumption of normal economic activity for weeks or months following the earthquake. Most wood-framed houses and newer multi-story buildings would withstand the shaking, but old masonry buildings, as well as structures on poor ground, might be severely damaged. On the positive side, it is unlikely, although not impossible, that such an earthquake would trigger a large tsunami, and any co-seismic subsidence or uplift would probably be localized. There are an average of about 50 magnitude 6–7 earthquakes for each magnitude 8–9 plate-boundary event in the Pacific Northwest (Figure 14). Con- sequently, it is likely that the next earthquake to damage Vancouver will be one centered in the North America or Juan de Fuca plate, rather than at the plate boundary. In view of the fact that the Mw 6.7 Northridge (Los Angeles) earthquake in 1994 caused more than US $15 billion damage, we would be well advised to be at least as concerned about magnitude 6–7 earthquakes as the much larger, but rarer, plate-boundary events.

8.3. VULNERABILITY Since 1946, when the last large earthquake struck southwestern British Columbia, the population of this region has grown from about 700,000 to 2.5 million, and the value of the region’s economic infrastructure has increased two orders of magnitude. Much more of the region is urbanized now than in 1946 and the infrastructure is far more complex and integrated. As a consequence, the next large earthquake in southwestern British Columbia is likely to be more devastating than a comparable earthquake decades ago when the region supported a much smaller population. The economy of Vancouver is critically dependent on highways, rail lines, natural gas pipelines, and electrical transmission lines that pass through steep-sided mountain valleys and that probably would be damaged or destroyed by landslides triggered by a large earthquake. The city’s international airport, the ferry terminal THE EARTHQUAKE THREAT IN SOUTHWESTERN BRITISH COLUMBIA 29

Figure 14. Cartoon illustrating the extent of damage in the Pacific Northwest that might result from earthquakes of different magnitudes (Clague, 1996, Figure 92). A magnitude 8–9 plate-boundary earthquake would affect a much larger area, but is far less likely, than a magnitude 7 crustal or intraplate earthquake. (Note: the earthquakes shown in this figure are hypothetical (the locations were arbitrarily chosen); in addition, patterns of damage would not be circular as shown, but rather elongate or irregular). linking Vancouver Island and mainland British Columbia, and the largest coal export facility in North America are located on liquefiable soils at the front of the Fraser River delta. Transmission cables that supply all of Victoria’s electricity extend across the submarine front of the Fraser delta, where landslides might occur during a strong earthquake. Commerce in Vancouver relies on a small number of bridges that span the harbor and the Fraser River; these are the “weak links” in the transportation system. Most of these bridges have been seismically upgraded in recent years, but are by no means earthquake proof; any significant damage to them would cripple the city. Much of Canada’s grain and lumber exports, as well as imports of cars and trucks from Japan and Korea, pass through Vancouver, and any lengthy disruption of the port or rail lines would damage the economy of the entire country. Residents of southwestern British Columbia are more aware of local earthquake hazards and risk than they were a decade ago, and considerable strides have been made in emergency preparedness by the provincial and federal governments. Most people, however, tend to dismiss the earthquake threat, largely because large, po- 30 JOHN J. CLAGUE tentially destructive earthquakes are rare in British Columbia. It is important to remember the lesson of Kobe, which until 1995 had not had a damaging earthquake in hundreds of years. The earthquake that devastated Kobe in January 1995 was smaller than several of the earthquakes in southwestern British Columbia and northwestern Washington in the twentieth century. Yet it killed over 5500 people, caused about US $75 billion dollars damage (1995 dollars), and shut down Japan’s second largest port for months (United Nations Centre for Regional Development, 1995). The earthquake damaged the national economy of Japan and may have extended its recession.

Acknowledgements The research that allowed me to write this paper was supported by the Geological Survey of Canada and Simon Fraser University. Gail Atkinson and Mark Darienzo reviewed the paper and contributed to its improvement.

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Metro Vancouver Species at Risk list

Metro Vancouver, 2012

Referenced in:

1.5.5 Species at Risk

Type English Name Scientific Name Mammals Grey Whale Eschrichtius robustus Mammals Grizzly Bear Ursus arctos Mammals Harbour Porpoise Phocoena phocoena Mammals Mountain Beaver Rainieri Subspecies Aplodontia rufa rainieri Mammals Steller Sea Lion Eumetopias jubatus Mammals Wolverine (luscus subspecies) Gulo gulo luscus Mammals Townsend's Big-eared Bat Corynorhinus townsendii Mammals Trowbridge's Shrew Sorex trowbridgii Mammals Mountain Beaver Rufus Subspecies Aplodontia rufa rufa Birds Pink-footed Shearwater Puffinus creatopus Birds Rough-legged Hawk Buteo lagopus Breeding Birds Barn Owl Tyto alba Breeding Birds Great Blue Heron (fannini subspecies) Ardea herodias fannini Breeding Birds Marbled Murrelet Brachyramphus marmoratus Breeding Birds Short-eared Owl Asio flammeus Western Screech Owl (kennicotti Breeding Birds subspecies) Megascops kennicottii kennicottii Breeding Birds Double-crested Cormorant Phalacrocorax auritus Breeding Birds Caspian Tern Hydroprogne caspia Breeding Birds American Bittern Botaurus lentiginosus Breeding Birds Barn Swallow Hirundo rustica Breeding Birds Purple Martin Progne subis Breeding Birds Olive-sided flycatcher Contopus cooperi Breeding Birds Band-tailed pigeon Patagioenas fasciata Breeding Birds Green Heron Butorides virescens Breeding Birds Sooty Grouse Dendragapus fuliginosus Amphibian Pacific Tailed Frog Ascaphus truei Amphibian Northern Red-legged Frog Rana aurora Amphibian Western Toad Anaxyrus boreas Fish Eulachon Thaleichthys pacificus Fish Bull Trout Salvelinus confluentus Fish Coastal Cutthroat Trout Oncorhynchus clarkii clarkii Insect Dun Skipper Euphyes vestris Insect Monarch Danaus plexippus Insect Beaverpond Baskettail Epitheca canis Insect Blue Dasher Pachydiplax longipennis Insect Autumn Meadowhawk Sympetrum vicinum Insect Emma's Dancer Argia emma Insect Black Petaltail Tanypteryx hageni

Insect Western Pine Elfin, Sheltonensis Subspecies Callophrys eryphon sheltonensis Insect Silver-spotted Skipper Epargyreus clarus Mollusc Olympia Oyster Ostrea conchaphila Mollusc Broadwhorl Tightcoil Pristiloma johnsoni Mollusc Scarletback Taildropper Prophysaon vanattae Mollusc Western Thorn Carychium occidentale Mollusc Pacific Sideband Monadenia fidelis Mollusc Black Gloss Zonitoides nitidus Vascular Plant Vancouver Island Beggarticks Bidens amplissima Vascular Plant Fox Sedge Carex vulpinoidea Vascular Plant Nuttall's waterweed Elodea nuttallii Vascular Plant Mountain Sneezeweed Helenium autumnale var. grandiflorum Vascular Plant Western Water-milfoil Myriophyllum hippuroides Vascular Plant Ussurian Water-milfoil Myriophyllum ussuriense Vascular Plant Nodding Semaphoregrass Pleuropogon refractus Vascular Plant California-tea Rupertia physodes Vascular Plant Yellow Marsh-marigold Caltha palustris var. radicans Vascular Plant Cascade Parsley Fern Cryptogramma cascadensis Vascular Plant Small Spike-rush Eleocharis parvula Vascular Plant Beaked Spike-rush Eleocharis rostellata Vascular Plant Nuttall's Quillwort Isoetes nuttallii Vascular Plant Pointed Rush Juncus oxymeris Vascular Plant Flowering Quillwort Lilaea scilloides Vascular Plant Blue Vervain Verbena hastata var. scabra Callitriche heterophylla var. Vascular Plant Two-edged Water-starwort heterophylla Vascular Plant Pointed Broom Sedge Carex scoparia Vascular Plant Small-fruited Willowherb Epilobium leptocarpum Vascular Plant Slender-spiked Mannagrass Glyceria leptostachya Vascular Plant Snow Bramble Rubus nivalis Vascular Plant Henderson's Checker-mallow Sidalcea hendersonii Vascular Plant Field Dodder Cuscuta campestris Vascular Plant Three-flowered Waterwort Elatine rubella Vascular Plant Western St. John's-wort Hypericum scouleri ssp. nortoniae Vascular Plant False-pimpernel Lindernia dubia var. anagallidea Vascular Plant Short-flowered Monkey-flower Mimulus breviflorus Vascular Plant American Sweet-flag Acorus americanus Vascular Plant Chaffweed Anagallis minima Moss Lacks a Common Name Alsia californica Moss Lacks a Common Name Amblystegium varium Moss Lacks a Common Name Andreaea schofieldiana Moss Lacks a Common Name Atrichum flavisetum Moss Lacks a Common Name Brachythecium holzingeri Moss Lacks a Common Name Bryum canariense Moss Lacks a Common Name Bryum schleicheri Moss Lacks a Common Name Callicladium haldanianum Moss Lacks a Common Name Diphyscium foliosum Moss Lacks a Common Name Discelium nudum Moss Lacks a Common Name Drepanocladus aduncus Moss Lacks a Common Name Epipterygium tozeri Moss Lacks a Common Name Fissidens ventricosus Moss Lacks a Common Name Hygroamblystegium fluviatile Moss Lacks a Common Name Hygrohypnum alpinum Moss Lacks a Common Name Orthotrichum cupulatum Moss Lacks a Common Name Orthotrichum striatum Moss Lacks a Common Name Physcomitrium pyriforme Moss Lacks a Common Name Platyhypnidium riparioides Moss Lacks a Common Name Ptychomitrium gardneri Moss Lacks a Common Name Sphagnum contortum Moss Lacks a Common Name Warnstorfia pseudostraminea Mammals Wolverine Gulo gulo Fish Basking Shark Cetorhinus maximus Fish Rougheye rockfish Sebastes aleutianus Fish Yelloweye Rockfish Sebastes ruberrimus Fish Bocaccio Sebastes paucispinis Fish Canary rockfish Sebastes pinniger

Mammals Killer Whale (southern resident population) Orcinus orca pop. 5 Mammals Pacific Water Shrew Sorex bendirii Killer Whale (West Coast transient Mammals population) Orcinus orca pop. 3

Mammals Snowshoe Hare, washingtonii subspecies Lepus americanus washingtonii Southern Red-backed Vole, occidentalis Mammals subspecies Myodes gapperi occidentalis Mammals Olympic Shrew Sorex rohweri Mammals Keen's Myotis Myotis keenii

Mammals Long-tailed Weasel, Altifrontalis Subspecies Mustela frenata altifrontalis Birds Short-tailed Albatross Phoebastria albatrus Birds Black-crowned Night-heron Nycticorax nycticorax Breeding Birds Northern Goshawk (laingi subspecies) Accipiter gentilis laingi Breeding Birds Peregrine Falcon (anatum subspecies) Falco peregrinus anatum Breeding Birds Spotted Owl Strix occidentalis Breeding Birds Red Knot Calidris canutus Western Bluebird (Georgia Depression Breeding Birds population) Sialia mexicana pop. 1 Western PaintedTurtle (Pacific coast Reptile population) Chrysemys picta pop. 1 Amphibian Oregon Spotted Frog Rana pretiosa Fish Green Sturgeon Acipenser medirostris Fish Nooksack Dace Rhinichthys cataractae - Chehalis Fish Salish Sucker Catostomus sp. 4 Fish Pygmy Longfin Smelt Spirinchus sp. 1 White Sturgeon (Lower Fraser River Fish population) Acipenser transmontanus pop. 4 Insect Greenish Blue, insulanus subspecies Plebejus saepiolus insulanus Insect Grappletail Octogomphus specularis Insect Audouin's Night-stalking Tiger Beetle Omus audouini Insect Johnson's Hairstreak Callophrys johnsoni

Insect Zerene Fritillary, Bremnerii Subspecies Speyeria zerene bremnerii Mollusc Northern Abalone Haliotis kamtschatkana Mollusc Oregon Forestsnail Allogona townsendiana Mollusc Rocky Mountain Fingernailclam Sphaerium patella Mollusc Evening Fieldslug Deroceras hesperium Mollusc Threaded Vertigo Nearctula sp. 1 Vascular Plant Streambank Lupine Lupinus rivularis Vascular Plant Small-flowered Bitter-cress Cardamine parviflora var. arenicola Vascular Plant Joe-pye Weed Eutrochium maculatum var. bruneri Vascular Plant Yellowseed False-pimpernel Lindernia dubia var. dubia Vascular Plant Northern Water-meal Wolffia borealis Vascular Plant Green-fruited Sedge Carex interrupta Vascular Plant Green Parrot's-feather Myriophyllum pinnatum Vascular Plant Washington Springbeauty Claytonia washingtoniana Vascular Plant Needle-leaved Navarretia Navarretia intertexta Vascular Plant Pacific Vertigo Vertigo andrusiana Vascular Plant Carolina Meadow-foxtail Alopecurus carolinianus Vascular Plant Nuttall's Sunflower Helianthus nuttallii ssp. rydbergii Moss Poor Pocket Moss Fissidens pauperculus Moss Lacks a Common Name Andreaea sinuosa Moss Lacks a Common Name Brachythecium reflexum var. pacificum Moss Roell's Brotherella Brotherella roellii Moss Lacks a Common Name Physcomitrium immersum Moss Lacks a Common Name Pohlia cardotii Moss Lacks a Common Name Pseudephemerum nitidum Moss Lacks a Common Name Steerecleus serrulatus Breeding bird (ex) Yellow-billed cuckoo Coccyzus americanus Lewis's Woodpecker (Georgia Depression Breeding bird (ex) population) Melanerpes lewis pop. 1 Western Meadowlark (Georgia Depression Breeding bird (ex) population) Sturnella neglecta pop. 1 Reptile (ex) Pacific Pond Turtle Actinemys marmorata Mulluscs (ex) Puget Oregonian Snail Cryptomastix devia Breeding Birds Common Nighthawk Chordeiles minor Breeding Birds Sandhill Crane Grus canadensis Reptile Rubber Boa Charina bottae Sockeye Salmon (Cultus and Sakinaw Lake Fish populations) Oncorhynchus nerka

Fish Coho Salmon (interior Fraser populations) Oncorhynchus kisutch Fish Dolly Varden Salvelinus malma Vascular Plant Dotted Smartweed Persicaria punctata Row Labels Count of Type Blue 97 BC Conservation Status Red 52 3% 4% 4% Yellow 7 Blue None 6 Red Red - Extirpated 5 Grand Total 167 31% Yellow 58% None Red - Extirpated

Row Labels Count of Type Amphibian 4 Birds 4

Breeding bird (ex) 3 Breeding Birds 21 Fish 16 Insect 14 Mammals 18 Mollusc 11 Moss 30 Mulluscs (ex) 1 Reptile 2 Reptile (ex) 1 Vascular Plant 42 Grand Total 167 Trans Mountain Expansion Project File Number OF-Fac-Oil-T260-2013-03 02 Ref: Hearing Order OH-001-2014 Metro Vancouver Information Request No.1 Supplementary Reference Documents Dated May 9, 2014

Species at Risk Act

Government of Canada, October 2003

Referenced in:

1.5.5 Species at Risk

List S 1

- 17

105 -

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Website of the Invasive Species Council of Metro Vancouver http://www.iscmv.ca/

referenced in:

1.5.6 Invasive Species

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The Invasive Species Council of Metro Vancouver, formerly the Greater Vancouver Invasive Plant Search... Search Council, is a non profit society that is working to improve the way we manage invasive species in the Metro Vancouver region. There are many biological invaders in our region that threaten the environment, economy and public safety. The purpose of this site is to provide you with News information about invasive species, specific species of interest in our region, control methods, ISCMV's services and to keep you updated on invasive species activities in the region. 2014 Annual Spring Forum and AGM Join the ISCMV for our 2014 Annual Spring What's New? Forum and AGM and make new discoveries about old stuff! We have some great... The ISCMV is holding its 2014 Annual Spring Forum and AGM on Read More April 15th, 2014. We have a great lineup of speakers that promise to surprise you with new information about "old stuff". ISCMV is hiring for 2014 field Check out the flyer/agenda highlights and register online before season April 10th. The ISCMV is hiring for 2 summer student positions for the 2014 field season. This The ISCMV is hiring for two summer student positions through positions are offered via the... the Canada Summer Jobs Program. Check out the hiring criteria Read More and postings here!

Follow The ISCMV Alienbusters are booking up fast for the 2014 field Tweets Follow season. ISCMV's operational program offers inventory, control and monitoring services to its regional stakeholders. For more Jennifer Grenz 11m information check out our Services Page. @iscmv Thanks to @Steve4Kelowna #mflnro Have you seen Giant Hogweed? Before you send us a report, we encourage you to watch this @christyclarkbc for protecting #bc from youtube video on Giant Hogweed to make sure you've identified the right suspect! #bcinvasives newsroom.gov.bc.ca/2014/05/bc-gra… #invSp What does ISCMV do? Raises the profile of invasive species Jennifer Grenz 17h @iscmv Provides education to the public and land managers on invasive species Tweet to @iscmv Provides land managers assistance with planning invasive species management Conducts on-the-ground management of invasive plants (inventory and control) Conducts research activities pertaining to invasive species management Provides regional direction on invasive species management

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