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Hindustan Unilever Equity Research INDIA January 28, 2021 BSE Sensex: 47410 Hindustan Unilever ADD ICICI Securities Limited Maintained is the author and Volume focus over margins continues Rs2,391 distributor of this report Strong double-digit growth in health, hygiene and nutrition portfolio was encouraging to note in 3QFY21. However, underlying volume growth of 4% (JYL Q3FY21 result review reported 15% volume growth on the same day) was a tad underwhelming. We note and earnings revision that this underperformance could reduce given HUL’s focus on volume growth even at the expense of gross margins in the near-term (see report). We like the (1) Consumer Staples & increase in consumer-relevant innovation intensity for hygiene related products Discretionary (and more), (2) double-digit growth in nutrition business (albeit potentially at lower margins), (3) increase in assortment & outlet coverage (back to pre-Covid levels) Target price Rs2,600 and (4) continuing plans to gain market share in tea from unorganised players by Earnings revision partially absorbing input cost inflation. Maintain ADD. (%) FY21E FY22E We note that 3Q results missed comments on profitability of Nutrition business Sales ↑ 3.7 ↑ 1.7 (was mentioned in 1Q and 2Q) – a potential risk to margins given Foods & EBITDA ↑ 4.5 ↑ 2.1 PAT ↓ 0.3 ↓ 2.3 Refreshment margins down 380bps YoY. Overall revenue performance improved: Reported revenue / EBITDA / recurring PAT grew 20% / 17% / 15%. Underlying domestic consumer business revenue Shareholding pattern Jun Sep Dec (excluding merger of GSK CH and VWash) grew 7% with 4% volume growth (UVG). ‘20 ‘20 ‘20 Health, Hygiene and Nutrition (80% of company portfolio) witnessed 10% revenue Promoters 61.9 61.9 61.9 Institutional growth. On the other side, discretionary segments of Skin care, Deos and Colour investors 23.2 25.4 25.6 MFs and others 4.4 4.0 3.5 cosmetics (15% revenue contribution) and out of home consumption businesses like Banks, FI’s, water, ice-creams, food solutions and vending (5% revenue contribution) declined Insurance co 3.8 3.8 4.0 1% and 15% respectively. FIIs 15.0 17.6 18.1 Others 14.9 12.7 12.5 Source: BSE Gross margin impacted due to commodity headwinds: Gross margin declined 25bps to 54% due to an inflationary trend in input costs which was largely offset by Price chart price hikes and better product mix. HUL continued with the strategy to not pass on 2600 the steep inflation completely through price hikes in order to gain market shares. It 2300 continues to believe that if it can retain and recruit new consumers, margin 2000 expansion can be achieved over time. 1700 (Rs) 1400 Cost savings, lower ad-spends limit operating margin decline: Reported 1100 EBITDA margin declined 90bps YoY to 24.1% due to higher other operating 800 expenses (+70bps YoY) – increased investment in GTM strategy to capture demand when it revives, investment in packaged foods and future capabilities. Jul-18 Jul-19 Jul-20 Jan-18 Jan-19 Jan-20 Jan-21 Valuation and risks: We cut our earnings estimates by ~2%; modelling revenue / EBITDA / PAT CAGR of 15 / 16 / 15 (%) over FY2020-23E. Maintain ADD rating with DCF-based target price unchanged at Rs2,600. Key downside risks are delayed recovery in demand and irrational competition. Market Cap Rs5618bn/US$77.2bn Year to March FY20 FY21E FY22E FY23E Reuters/Bloomberg HLL.BO/HUVR IN Net Revenue (Rs mn) 387,850 458,321 514,255 585,929 Research Analysts: Shares Outstanding (mn) 2,349.6 Net Profit (Rs mn) 69,350 77,869 89,883 104,882 Manoj Menon 52-week Range (Rs) 2488/1838 Dil. EPS (Rs) 32.1 33.2 38.3 44.7 [email protected] Free Float (%) 38.1 % Chg YoY 10.7 3.4 15.4 16.7 +91 22 6637 7209 Vismaya Agarwal, CFA FII (%) 18.1 P/E (x) 74.5 72.0 62.4 53.5 [email protected] Daily Volume (US$'000) 68,873 CEPS (Rs) 36.4 37.6 43.3 50.3 +91 22 2277 7632 Absolute Return 3m (%) 10.6 EV/EBITDA (x) 53.2 49.5 42.8 36.8 Karan Bhuwania Absolute Return 12m (%) [email protected] 18.0 Dividend Yield (%) 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.6 +91 22 6637 7351 Sensex Return 3m (%) 17.1 RoCE (%) 64.6 26.9 18.7 20.9 Sensex Return 12m (%) 16.6 RoE (%) 88.4 30.4 20.4 22.8 Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report Hindustan Unilever, January 28, 2021 ICICI Securities Table 1: Q3FY21 result review (Rs mn, year ending March 31) Q3FY21 Q3FY20 YoY (%) Q2FY21 QoQ (%) 9MFY21 9MFY20 YoY (%) Volume growth (%) 4.0 5.0 -100 bps 1.0 300 bps (1.0) 5.0 -600 bps Net sales 116,820 96,960 20 112,760 4 333,640 293,880 14 Other operating income 1,800 1,120 61 1,660 8 5,000 3,860 30 Net Revenue 118,620 98,080 21 114,420 4 338,640 297,740 14 COGS (54,590) (44,900) 22 (53,750) 2 (159,210) (136,230) 17 Gross Profit 64,030 53,180 20 60,670 6 179,430 161,510 11 Staff cost (5,560) (4,540) 22 (5,590) (1) (17,070) (13,360) 28 A&SP (13,880) (11,630) 19 (11,390) 22 (33,240) (35,220) (6) Other opex (16,050) (12,560) 28 (15,000) 7 (45,450) (37,580) 21 Total expenditure (35,490) (28,730) 24 (31,980) 11 (95,760) (86,160) 11 EBITDA 28,540 24,450 17 28,690 (1) 83,670 75,350 11 Other income 970 1,400 (31) 1,510 (36) 4,040 4,670 (13) Finance cost (410) (250) 64 (290) 41 (990) (800) 24 D&A (2,720) (2,320) 17 (2,490) 9 (7,630) (6,830) 12 PBT 26,380 23,280 13 27,420 (4) 79,090 72,390 9 Tax (6,870) (6,380) 8 (7,070) (3) (20,500) (19,660) 4 PAT (recurring) 19,510 16,900 15 20,350 (4) 58,590 52,730 11 Extraordinary items (300) (740) (260) (480) (540) Net profit (reported) 19,210 16,160 19 20,090 (4) 58,110 52,190 11 Core EPS (recurring) 8.3 7.8 6 8.7 (4) 24.9 24.4 2 Ratios (% of net revenues) COGS 46.0 45.8 24 bps 47.0 -96 bps 47.0 45.8 125 bps Gross margin (%) 54.0 54.2 -25 bps 53.0 95 bps 53.0 54.2 -126 bps Staff cost 4.7 4.6 5 bps 4.9 -20 bps 5.0 4.5 55 bps A&SP 11.7 11.9 -16 bps 10.0 174 bps 9.8 11.8 -202 bps Other opex 13.5 12.8 72 bps 13.1 42 bps 13.4 12.6 79 bps EBITDA margin (%) 24.1 24.9 -87 bps 25.1 -102 bps 24.7 25.3 -60 bps Effective tax rate 26.0 27.4 -137 bps 25.8 25 bps 25.9 27.2 -124 bps Segment revenues Home care 34,090 34,560 (1) 33,180 3 101,190 102,920 (2) Beauty & Personal Care 48,410 44,120 10 45,350 7 134,150 135,440 (1) Foods & Refreshments 33,560 18,650 80 33,790 (1) 96,930 56,620 71 Others (incl exports) 2,560 750 241 2,100 22 6,370 2,760 131 Total segment revenue 118,620 98,080 21 114,420 4 338,640 297,740 14 Segment EBIT Home care 6,460 6,290 3 6,780 (5) 19,610 19,230 2 Beauty & Personal Care 14,130 12,520 13 13,280 6 38,750 39,250 (1) Foods & Refreshments 4,730 3,340 42 5,590 (15) 16,140 10,070 60 Others (incl exports) 500 (20) NM 550 (9) 1,540 20 Total segment EBIT 25,820 22,130 17 26,200 (1) 76,040 68,570 11 Segment EBIT margin (%) Home care 18.9 18.2 74 bps 20.4 -149 bps 19.4 18.7 69 bps Beauty & Personal Care 29.2 28.4 81 bps 29.3 -10 bps 28.9 29.0 -10 bps Foods & Refreshments 14.1 17.9 -382 bps 16.5 -245 bps 16.7 17.8 -114 bps Others (incl exports) 19.5 (2.7) 26.2 24.2 0.7 Total 21.8 22.6 -80 bps 22.9 -114 bps 22.5 23.0 -58 bps Source: Company data, I-Sec research 2 Hindustan Unilever, January 28, 2021 ICICI Securities Chart 1: Volume growth Chart 2: Revenue growth 15 25 12 21 11 11 10 10 20 16 10 7 7 15 6 6 11 11 11 11 11 5 5 5 9 5 4 4 4 4 4 10 6 7 7 5 6 4 4 1 5 3 (%) 0 (%) 2 1 2 1 0 0 (1) (0) (1) (5) (5) (4) (10) (7) (9) (10) (8) (15) Q1FY16 Q2FY16 Q3FY16 Q4FY16 Q1FY17 Q2FY17 Q3FY17 Q4FY17 Q1FY18 Q2FY18 Q3FY18 Q4FY18 Q1FY19 Q2FY19 Q3FY19 Q4FY19 Q1FY20 Q2FY20 Q3FY20 Q4FY20 Q1FY21 Q2FY21 Q3FY21 Q1FY16 Q2FY16 Q3FY16 Q4FY16 Q1FY17 Q2FY17 Q3FY17 Q4FY17 Q1FY18 Q2FY18 Q3FY18 Q4FY18 Q1FY19 Q2FY19 Q3FY19 Q4FY19 Q1FY20 Q2FY20 Q3FY20 Q4FY20 Q1FY21 Q2FY21 Q3FY21 Source: Company data, I-Sec research Source: Company data, I-Sec research Chart 3: Gross margin Chart 4: EBITDA margin 56 27 26.2 26.2 54.5 54.5 54.5 54.5 25.1 25.0 25.0 24.9 24.9 54.2 54.2 24.8 24.8 54.0 54.0 54.0 54.0 54.0 54.0 53.8 53.8 53.7 53.7 25 24.1 54 23.7 53.0 53.0 23.3 23.3 52.7 52.7 22.9 22.9 52.6 52.6 52.3 52.3 22.5 22.5 52.1 52.1 52.0 52.0 51.8 51.8 23 51.8 51.8 21.9 21.9 51.4 51.4 21.4 21.4 51.3 51.3 52 51.2 51.0 51.0 20.2 50.3 50.3 20.1 20.1 21 20.1 (%) (%) 19.6 19.6 49.6 49.6 19.3 19.3 49.5 49.5 50 19.0 19 18.4 17.9 17.9 17.6 17.6 17.3 17.3 48 17 46 15 Q1FY16 Q2FY16 Q3FY16 Q4FY16 Q1FY17 Q2FY17 Q3FY17 Q4FY17 Q1FY18 Q2FY18 Q3FY18 Q4FY18 Q1FY19 Q2FY19 Q3FY19 Q4FY19 Q1FY20 Q2FY20 Q3FY20 Q4FY20 Q1FY21 Q2FY21 Q3FY21 Q1FY16 Q2FY16 Q3FY16 Q4FY16 Q1FY17 Q2FY17 Q3FY17 Q4FY17 Q1FY18 Q2FY18 Q3FY18 Q4FY18 Q1FY19 Q2FY19 Q3FY19 Q4FY19 Q1FY20 Q2FY20 Q3FY20 Q4FY20 Q1FY21 Q2FY21 Q3FY21 Source: Company data, I-Sec research Source: Company data, I-Sec research Chart 5: EBIDTA growth Chart 6: PBT growth 30 30 28 24 24 24 24 25 22 21 25 21 20 21 20 20 18 18 18 17 18 20 17 20 16 16 16 14 14 13 15 12 13 15 13 13 13 10 8 9 10 8 7 8 10 7 7 8 5 6 (%) (%) 5 5 0 0 (0) (5) (5) (1) (10) (5) (10) (15) (11) (15) (10) (11) Q1FY16 Q2FY16 Q3FY16 Q4FY16 Q1FY17 Q2FY17 Q3FY17 Q4FY17 Q1FY18 Q2FY18 Q3FY18 Q4FY18 Q1FY19 Q2FY19 Q3FY19 Q4FY19 Q1FY20 Q2FY20 Q3FY20 Q4FY20 Q1FY21 Q2FY21 Q3FY21 Q1FY16 Q2FY16 Q3FY16 Q4FY16 Q1FY17 Q2FY17 Q3FY17 Q4FY17 Q1FY18 Q2FY18 Q3FY18 Q4FY18 Q1FY19 Q2FY19 Q3FY19 Q4FY19 Q1FY20 Q2FY20 Q3FY20 Q4FY20 Q1FY21 Q2FY21 Q3FY21 Source: Company data, I-Sec research Source: Company data, I-Sec research 3 35 30 8 30 26 7 23 5.7 5.7 25 21 5.7 20 20 21 5.6 6 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.2 5.1 5.1 17 5.0 20 4.9 4.9 4.9 4.9 4.9 4.9 4.9 4.7 4.7 15 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.7 15 4.6 14 4.6 4.5 4.5 4.4 4.4 15 13 12 5 4.4 11 4.0 9 3.9 10 8 7 8 7 4 (%) (%) 6 4 5 3 0 2 (5) 1 (10) (8) (15) (10) 0 Source: Company data,I Chart Source: Company da Chart Source: Company data,I Chart 4
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