On the Feasibility of Saltational Evolution
On the feasibility of saltational evolution Mikhail I. Katsnelsona,1, Yuri I. Wolfb, and Eugene V. Kooninb,1 aInstitute for Molecules and Materials, Radboud University, 6525AJ Nijmegen, The Netherlands; and bNational Center for Biotechnology Information, National Library of Medicine, Bethesda, MD 20894 Contributed by Eugene V. Koonin, August 28, 2019 (sent for review May 28, 2019; reviewed by Christoph Adami and Claus O. Wilke) Is evolution always gradual or can it make leaps? We examine a in the landscape, for example to the slope of a different, mathematical model of an evolutionary process on a fitness land- higher peak, via simultaneous fixation of multiple mutations scape and obtain analytic solutions for the probability of multimutation (Fig. 1). leaps, that is, several mutations occurring simultaneously, within a We sought to obtain analytically, within the population single generation in 1 genome, and being fixed all together in the genetics framework, the conditions under which multimuta- evolving population. The results indicate that, for typical, empir- tional leaps might be feasible. The results suggest that, under ically observed combinations of the parameters of the evolution- most typical parameters of the evolutionary process, leaps ary process, namely, effective population size, mutation rate, and distribution of selection coefficients of mutations, the probabil- cannot be fixed. However, taking sign epistasis into account, we ity of a multimutation leap is low, and accordingly the contribu- show that saltational evolution could become relevant under tion of such leaps is minor at best. However, we show that, conditions of elevated mutation rate under stress so that stress- taking sign epistasis into account, leaps could become an induced mutagenesis could be considered an evolvable adaptation important factor of evolution in cases of substantially elevated strategy.
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