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Tesis Doctoral TESIS DOCTORAL AFGANISTÁN 2017, ¿MISIÓN CUMPLIDA? Manuel Alejandro Apellániz Vélez Enseñanza Militar de Grado Superior UNIVERSIDAD NACIONAL DE EDUCACIÓN A DISTANCIA INSTITUTO UNIVERSITARIO GENERAL GUTIÉRREZ MELLADO Director: Dr. D. Enrique Vega Fernández Codirector: Dr. D. Javier Gil Pérez Tutora: Dra. Dª Alicia Gil Gil 2015 TESIS DOCTORAL AFGANISTÁN 2017, ¿MISIÓN CUMPLIDA? Manuel Alejandro Apellániz Vélez Enseñanza Militar de Grado Superior UNIVERSIDAD NACIONAL DE EDUCACIÓN A DISTANCIA INSTITUTO UNIVERSITARIO GENERAL GUTIÉRREZ MELLADO Director: Dr. D. Enrique Vega Fernández Codirector: Dr. D. Javier Gil Pérez Tutora: Dra. Dª Alicia Gil Gil 2015 AGRADECIMIENTOS Esta tesis se ha podido realizar gracias al apoyo y aportación de numerosas personas, nombrar a todos ellos sería una labor imposible, pero quisiera agradecer personalmente a algunas de ellas, sin duda las más importantes. En primer lugar a mis directores de tesis, Enrique Vega y Javier Gil, son sin duda los guías que todo alumno quisiera tener antes de emprender un proyecto como este. Han sabido estar siempre motivándome en los momentos de debilidad, su disponibilidad ha sido absoluta, nunca tuvieron vacaciones, iluminando mi camino con esfuerzo y sabiduría. Enrique, Javier, gracias por vuestros consejos que han conseguido hacerme llegar hasta el final logrando el objetivo. A mi familia, mis padres y hermana, su plena confianza en mis capacidades a lo largo de toda mi vida ha forjado un carácter, sin él nunca hubiese siquiera soñado afrontar este reto. A mi mujer, Arantxa, la que realmente ha sufrido las horas de estudio y dedicación. El apoyo que siempre me has mostrado ha sido la razón última por la que he sido capaz de terminar este proyecto, esta tesis es más tuya que mía. Eres sin duda la clave del éxito de esta obra. A todos los compañeros anónimos que me han acompañado en mis despliegues sobre el terreno, sin saberlo han aportado la parte más importante de este análisis, la opinión de expertos, de ciudadanos, que han teñido este trabajo del nivel de realidad que necesita una investigación de este tipo. Y, por supuesto, al pueblo afgano, principio y final de esta tesis, hacedores de un gran país que espero les dote del futuro esperanzador que se merecen. INDICE I. LISTA DE ACRONIMOS II. INTRODUCCION 1. JUSTIFICACION ……………………………………………… 1 2. OBJETO ……………………………………………… 2 3. OBJETIVO ……………………………………………… 4 4. HIPOTESIS ……………………………………………... 4 5. METODOLOGIA ……………………………………………… 4 6. FUENTES ……………………………………………… 5 7. ESTRUCTURA ……………………………………………… 5 1. ACTORES INTERNOS 1.1 GENERALIDADES ……………………………………… 7 1.2 TALIBANES ……………………………………………… 8 1.3 OTROS GRUPOS VIOLENTOS 1.3.1 AL-QAEDA ……………………………………………… 26 1.3.2 HIZB-I ISLAMI GULBUDDIN ……………………… 28 1.3.3 RED HAQQANI …………………………….... 31 1.3.4 CRIMEN ORGANIZADO ……………………………… 37 1.3.5 ULTIMAS TENDENCIAS ……………………………... 40 1.4 LOS PODERES REGIONALES Y LOCALES 1.4.1 GENERALIDADES ……………………………… 46 1.4.2 VIEJOS SEÑORES DE LA GUERRA ……………… 47 1.4.3 NUEVOS FACTORES DE INFLUENCIA, LOS “SEÑORES FEUDALES LOCALES” ……………… 57 1.4.4 CORRUPCION, HERRAMIENTA DE LOS PODERES FACTICOS LOCALES ……………………………… 59 2. ESTRUCTURAS GUBERNAMENTALES 2.1 GENERALIDADES ……………………………………… 64 2.2 GOBIERNO AFGANO 2.2.1 GENERALIDADES ……………………………………… 66 2.2.2 GOBIERNO CENTRAL Y LOCAL ……………………… 72 2.2.3 ALCANCE Y EFICACIA ……………………………… 76 2.3 CONSTITUCION AFGANA: DESCRIPCIÓN Y CONTENIDO 2.3.1 GENERALIDADES ……………………………………... 80 2.3.2 CONTENIDO Y LIMITACIONES ……………………… 81 2.3.3 VALOR REAL EN LA SOCIEDAD AFGANA …………. 83 2.4 FUERZAS DE SEGURIDAD AFGANAS (ANDSF) 2.4.1 GENERALIDADES ……………………………………… 85 2.4.2 ESTRUCTURA Y FINANCIACIÓN …………………….. 88 2.4.3 ESTRATEGIA Y REALIDAD ……………………… 93 2.5 ULTIMAS TENDENCIAS ……………………………………… 97 3. PAKISTAN 3.1 GENERALIDADES ……………………………………………. 102 3.2 PAKISTAN EN CLAVE INTERNA ……………………… 104 3.3 OBJETIVOS PAKISTANIES EN AFGANISTÁN, PROFUNDIDAD ESTRATEGICA ……………………… 120 3.4 INFLUENCIA AFGANA EN PAKISTAN ……………………. 126 3.5 PAKISTAN Vs INDIA, CONSECUENCIAS PARA AFGANISTAN ………………………………………………….. 129 3.6 ULTIMAS TENDENCIAS ……………………………………… 133 4. IRÁN 4.1 RELACIONES HISTORICAS CON AFGANISTÁN …..……… 135 4.2 RELACIONES RECIENTES CON AFGANISTÁN …………… 138 4.3 IRÁN POST AHMADINEJAD ……………………………… 141 4.4 LOS TRES PRINCIPALES CONTENCIOSOS ………………… 144 4.5 ULTIMAS TENDENCIAS ……………………………………… 148 5. OTROS ACTORES EXTERNOS 5.1 ESTADOS UNIDOS ……………………………………… 151 5.1.1 ACUERDO ESTRATÉGICO …………………………….. 153 5.1.2 INTERESES DE LOS ESTADOS UNIDOS EN AFGANISTÁN ……………………………………….. 154 5.2 CHINA ……………………………………………………… 160 5.2.1 INTERESES ECONÓMICOS …………………………….. 161 5.2.2 INTERESES GEOPOLÍTICOS ………………………….. 163 5.3 RUSIA ……………………………………………………… 166 5.4 LA INDIA ……………………………………………………… 171 5.5 ULTIMAS TENDENCIAS ……………………………………... 177 6. CONCLUSIONES ……………………………………………… 180 III. REFERENCIAS BIBLIOGRAFICAS ……………………………… 183 II. LISTA DE ACRONIMOS AIEA: Agencia Internacional de la Energía Atómica ANA: Afghan National Army ANP: Awami National Party ANBP: Afghan National Border Police Af-Pak: Afganistán-Pakistán APPF: Afghan Public Protection Force ATFC: Afghan Threat Finance Cell ANDSF: Afghan National Security Forces BLA: Baluchistan Liberation Army BNP: Baluchistan National Party BSA: Bilateral Security Agreement CSTO: Collective Security Treaty Organization ECC: Electoral Complaints Commission ETIM: East Turkestan Islamic Movement FATA: Federally Administered Tribal Areas FLB: Frente de Liberación de Beluchistán HIA: Hizb-i Islami Afganistán HIG: Hizb-i Islami Gulbuddin HPC: (Afghan) High Peace Council HRW: Human Rights Watch HuA: Harkat-ul Ansar HuM: Harkat-ul Muyahidín ICSIC: Independent Commission for Supervision of the Implementation of the Constitution IDA: Islamic Democratic Alliance IDLG: Independent Directorate for Local Governance IED: Improvised Explosive Device IMU: Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan ISAF: International Security Assistance Force ISI: Inter-Services Intelligence ISIL-KP: Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant in Korashan Province JAWG: Joint Attrition Working Group JD: Jamaat-ud-Dawa JeM: Jaish-e Mohammad JI: Jamiat-e-Islami JIA: Jamiat-i Islami-yi Afganistán JuD: Jamaat-ud-Dawa JUI-F: Jamaat-e Ulema-e Islam KANA: Kashmir Affairs and Northern Areas KPK: Khyber Pakhtunkhwa LeB: Lashkar-e-Baluchistan LeJ: Lashkar-e-Jhangvi LeT: Lashkar-e-Taiba LMP: Liga Musulmana de Pakistán LMP-N: Liga de Nawaz Sharif LOTFA: Law an Order Trust Fund for Afghanistan MMA: Muttahida Majilis-e Amal MQM: Muttahida Qaumi Movement MWM: Majlis-e-Wahdatul Muslimeen NDS: National Directorate of Security NUG: National Unity Government NWFP: North-West Frontier Province OEF: Operation Enduring Freedom ONU: Organización de las Naciones Unidas OSCE: Organización para la Seguridad y Cooperacion en Europa OTAN: Organización del Tratado del Atlántico Norte PAT: Pakistan Awami Therik PDPA: Partido Democratico Popular de Afganistán PIB: Producto Interior Bruto PKMAP: Pakhtunkhwa Milli Awami Party PPP: Partido del Pueblo de Pakistán PRT: Provincial Reconstruction Team PTI: Pakistan Tehereek-e-Insaf RSM: Resolute Support Mission SCA: Strategic Cooperation Agreement SCO: Shanghai Cooperation Organization SPA: Strategic Partnership Agreement SEATO: South East Asia Treaty Organization SIGAR: Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction TAPI: Turkmenistán, Afganistán, Pakistán, India TTP: Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan UNAMA: United Nations Mission in Afghanistan UNDP: United Nations Development Program UNHCR: United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees UNISCI: Unit on International Security and Cooperation UNODOC: United Nations Office on Drugs and Organized Crime. USAID: United States Agency for International Development I. INTRODUCCIÓN 1. Justificación Afganistán lleva más de treinta años en guerra, periodo que data desde la entrada de las tropas soviéticas a finales de los setenta hasta el presente 2015. Las cifras del conflicto afgano arrojan más de un millón de víctimas mortales y unos tres millones de afganos que actualmente siguen manteniendo la condición de refugiados. La retirada soviética de Afganistán se identificó como uno de los símbolos más representativos del final de la era comunista, el comienzo de la llamada era unipolar dominada por los Estados Unidos. Afganistán dejó de ser interesante para occidente una vez la URSS desapareció del mapa político. Incluso en la actualidad tampoco genera demasiados titulares, a pesar de ser la intervención militar más exigente para las tropas occidentales y la más larga para las tropas estadounidenses. Afganistán está enormemente vinculado con los atentados del 11 de septiembre del 2001. Atentados que supusieron la causa del cambio en la política internacional en la que los Estados Unidos fijaron su esfuerzo principal en la lucha contra el terrorismo a escala global. Afganistán es el origen del noventa por ciento del opio del mundo (United Nations Office on Drugs and Organized Crime, 2012a, pp. 6). El país del Hindu Kush ha sido, sin lugar a dudas, el teatro donde la OTAN ha desarrollado su misión más demandante, ¿por qué parece despertar tan poco interés en la comunidad internacional? La intervención en Irak del 2003 tuvo mucha más cobertura durante toda la campaña, sin embargo de Afganistán apenas si se habló en las últimas elecciones norteamericanas, algo que ha sucedido con cierta regularidad en los comicios estadounidenses (Rashid, 2010, pp. 177-178). Sin embargo el éxito o fracaso de la intervención militar en Afganistán podría ser algo a tener muy en cuenta, precisamente porque Afganistán ha sido el teatro más complicado y exigente en el
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