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Macroeconomic Adjustment in Developing THEWORLD BANK ERS6 Public Disclosure Authorized DiscussionPaper DEVELOPMENT POLICY ISSUES SERIES Report No. VPERS6 MacroeconomicAdjustment in Public Disclosure Authorized DevelopingCountries: A PolicyPerspective Mohsin S. Khan Public Disclosure Authorized August 1986 Office of the Vice President Economics and Research Public Disclosure Authorized The views presented here are those of the author,and they should not be interpretedas reflectingthose of the World Bank. MACROECONOMICADJUSTMENT IN DEVELOPINGCOUNTRIES: A POLICY PERSPECTIVE by Mohsin S. Khan August 1986 The author is Chief, MacroeconomicsDivision, DevelopmentResearch Department, World Bank, on leave from the InternationalMonetary Fund. The author is grateful to Willem Buiter, Mansoor Dailami, Indermit Gill, Nadeem U. Haque, Malcolm Knight, Anne Krueger, Ricardo Martin, Costas Michalopoulos,and Peter Montiel for helpful comments and suggestions. The World Bank does not acceptresponsibility for the views expressedherein which are those of the author(s)and shouldnot be attributedto the World Bank or to its affiliatedorganizations. The findings,interpretations, and conclusionsare the resultsof researchsupported by the Bank; they do not necessarilyrepresent official policy of the Bank. The designationsemployed, the presentationof material,and any maps used in this documentare solely for the convenienceof the readerand do not imply the expressionof any opinionwhatsoever on the part of the World Bank or its affiliatesconcerning the legal statusof any country,territory, city, area, or of its authorities, or concerningthe delimitationsof its boundariesor nationalaffiliation. Abstract Broadly speaking, a comprehensivemacroeconomic adjustment program is expected to have the following objectives: a sustainablecurrent account position, a stable and high rate of economic growth that would allow for a steady rise in per capita consumption,a reduced rate of inflation, and a manageable level of foreign debt. Given these multiple objectives,the package that is designed would typically include a variety of policy measures that simultaneouslyrestrain aggregate demand and increase the availabilityof resources. These policies may be grouped as follows: demand-management policies; structuralpolicies; exchange rate policies;and external financing policies. The purpose of this paper is to describe how these policies can be expected to achieve the goal of macroeconomicadjustment. The focus is primarily on the theoreticaland empirical links between policy instruments and the ultimate objectives. An examinationof these links is necessary before issues of the appropriatemix of demand-management,structural, exchange rate, and external policies, and the sequencingof these policies in a program, can be properly addressed. Table of Contents Page No. I. Introduction ............................ I II. Demand-Management Policies ...... ............................ 5 A. Monetary Policy ........................................ 6 B. Fiscal Policy ........................................ 9 III. Structural Policies ........................................ 11 A. Policies to Improve Efficiency and Resource Allocation ......... ... *.... ... *... ... ... 12 B. Policies to Increase the Rate of Growthof Capacity Output ......................... 15 IV. Exchange Rate Policies ...................................... 20 A. Determiningthe Extent of Exchange Rate Adjustment ................... ............... 22 B. Policies to Achieve a Target Real Exchange Rate ....................... ....... ..... 23 C. Effects of Exchange Rate Changes .... ................... 25 D. Exchange Rate Systems and Regimes .... .................. 26 V. External Financing Policies ................................. 28 VI. Conclusions ................ 34 MacroeconomicAdjustment in DevelopingCountries: A PolicyPerspective MohsinS. Khan I. Introduction In recentyears developingcountries have found themselvesin serious economicdifficulties, including worsening balance of paymentspositions, risingrates of inflation,and decliningrates of growth. The predicamentof these countrieshas led to a heightenedinterest in the subjectof macroeconomicadjustment, and particularlyon how to eliminatethe disequilibriumin the economiesthat gave rise to these problemswithout sacrificinggrowth in the process. The basic questionthat is currentlybeing asked by academics,policymakers in the developingworld, and the internationaleconomic community at large,is what policiescan be employed, and in what combination,to achievethe goal of macroeconomicadjustment. The need for macroeconomicadjustment arises when a countryhas a fundamentalimbalance between aggregate domestic demand and aggregate supply. This demand-supplyimbalance can be a resultboth of external factors,such as a deteriorationin the termsof trade and an increasein foreigninterest rates, as well as inappropriatedomestic policies that expand aggregatedemand too rapidlyand reducethe rate of growthof productive capacityof the economy. In principle,a countrycan avoid adjustmentby borrowingabroad or imposingcontrols on trade and payments,or a combination of the two, and the disequilibriumin the economycan persistfor an extended period. There are, however,costs associatedwith this type of strategythat are well known. These includea wideningcurrent account deficit, increasing -2- inflation, overvaluationof the domestic currency and loss of international competitiveness,an inefficientallocation of resources because of distortions in relative prices, reduced economic growth, and a heavier foreign debt burden. This type of disequilibriumcannot continue indefinitely,and in the absence of appropriatepolicy actions to correct the underlying imbalances, living standards in the country would be adversely affected. Moreover, the steady loss of internationalcompetitiveness and an increasing level of foreign debt would affect the country's creditworthinessand thus its ability to obtain additional foreign financing. Naturally, a cessation of foreign financing would impose adjustment on the country, and as recent experience in a number of countries has shown, this forced adjustment is likely to be very disruptive. The fundamentalobjective of an adjustment program is to provide for an orderly eliminationof the imbalancebetween aggregate domestic demand and resource availabilitybefore the point at which the economy becomes seriouslydistorted and external resources are exhausted. To achieve this objective the adjustment program necessarilyhas to include a variety of policies that simultaneouslyreduce aggregate demand and increase the availabilityof total resources. Following Khan and Knight (1982), (1985), these policies can be broadly grouped according to whether their primary impact is on the level of absorption-- demand-managementpolicies -- on the level of current and potential output -- structural policies -- on the compositionof absorption and production as between tradable and nontradable goods - exchange rate policies -- and finally, on the level of capital flows -- external financing policies. -3- Demand-managementpolicies typically include monetary and fiscal measures designed to affect the aggregate level or rate of growth of demand relative to production. On the other hand, structural policies are intended to increase the supply of goods and services in the economy at any given level of domestic demand. Included in structuralpolicies would be, among others, measures to increase the level and efficiency of investment,reductions in tariffs and eliminationof other trade distortions,removal of subsidies, raising the efficiencyand profitabilityof public sector enterprises, measures to raise public and private savings, and increases in producer prices. Policies to improve internationalcompetitiveness and expand the supply of tradable goods through both reduced consumptionand increased production principallyinvolve changes in the real exchange rate. Exchange rate policies, therefore,have both demand-sideand structural characteristics,and thus are treated separately. Changes in the net flow of foreign financing, includingthe financingdirectly provided by international institutions,also affect absorption,and if they assist domestic capital formation, raise potential output as well. External financing polic:ies generally include measures to ensure that the supply of funds, both from official as well as private external sources, are at a sustainablelevel, changing the maturity and compositionof foreign debt, and reducing capital flight from developing countries. Generally speaking,comprehensive and long-term macroeconomic adjustment would involve elements of all four of the policies listed above. Programs aimed at adjustment with growth cannot rely exclusivelyon demand- management policies, nor for that matter solely on structural policies. In fact, these policies are closely interrelated. For example, the achievement -4- of a higher growth rate in the medium term generally requires an increase in productive investment,while stabilizationrequires a reduction in the savings-investmentgap. The policy package, therefore,must be designed to reduce the level of aggregatedomestic demand and simultaneouslyto cause a shift in the compositionof demand away from current consumptionand toward fixed capital formation. Exchange rate policies will assist in the adjustment process by dampening demand and creating incentives for investment in the tradables sector. External financing policies would set limits to the current and future availabilityof
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