Comments on a Monetarist Approach to Demand Management
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Walter Heller Oral History Interview II, 12/21/71, by David G
LYNDON BAINES JOHNSON LIBRARY ORAL HISTORY COLLECTION LBJ Library 2313 Red River Street Austin, Texas 78705 http://www.lbjlib.utexas.edu/johnson/archives.hom/biopage.asp WALTER HELLER ORAL HISTORY, INTERVIEW II PREFERRED CITATION For Internet Copy: Transcript, Walter Heller Oral History Interview II, 12/21/71, by David G. McComb, Internet Copy, LBJ Library. For Electronic Copy on Compact Disc from the LBJ Library: Transcript, Walter Heller Oral History Interview II, 12/21/71, by David G. McComb, Electronic Copy, LBJ Library. GENERAL SERVICES ADNINISTRATION NATIONAL ARCHIVES AND RECORDS SERVICE LYNDON BAINES JOHNSON LIBRARY Legal Agreement Pertaining to the Oral History Interviews of Walter W. Heller In accordance with the provisions of Chapter 21 of Title 44, United States Code and subject to the terms and conditions hereinafter· set forth, I, Walter W. Heller of Minneapolis, Minnesota do hereby give, donate and convey to the United States of America all my rights, title and interest in the tape record- ings and transcripts of the personal interviews conducted on February 20, 1970 and December 21,1971 in Minneapolis, Minnesota and prepared for deposit in the Lyndon Baines Johnson Library. This assignment is subject to the following terms and conditions: (1) The edited transcripts shall be available for use by researchers as soon as they have been deposited in the Lyndon Baines Johnson Library. (2) The tape recordings shall not be available to researchers. (3) During my lifetime I retain all copyright in the material given to the United States by the terms of this instrument. Thereafter the copyright in the edited transcripts shall pass to the United States Government. -
Kermit Gordon and Walter W
Kermit Gordon and Walter W. Heller Oral History Interview –JFK #2, 9/14/1972 Administrative Information Creator: Kermit Gordon and Walter W. Heller Interviewer: Larry J. Hackman and Joseph A. Pechman Date of Interview: September 14, 1972 Place of Interview: Washington, D.C. Length: 50 pp. Biographical Note Gordon, Kermit; Economist, Member, Council of Economic Advisers (1961-1962). Heller, Walter W.; Economist, Chairman, Council of Economic Advisers (1961-1964). Gordon and Heller discuss wage-price guideposts, the steel crises in 1962 and 1963, John F. Kennedy’s [JFK] relationship with the business community, and their efforts regarding tax reform and a tax cut bill, among other issues. Access Restrictions No restrictions. Usage Restrictions Copyright of these materials have passed to the United States Government upon the death of the interviewees. Users of these materials are advised to determine the copyright status of any document from which they wish to publish. Copyright The copyright law of the United States (Title 17, United States Code) governs the making of photocopies or other reproductions of copyrighted material. Under certain conditions specified in the law, libraries and archives are authorized to furnish a photocopy or other reproduction. One of these specified conditions is that the photocopy or reproduction is not to be “used for any purpose other than private study, scholarship, or research.” If a user makes a request for, or later uses, a photocopy or reproduction for purposes in excesses of “fair use,” that user may be liable for copyright infringement. This institution reserves the right to refuse to accept a copying order if, in its judgment, fulfillment of the order would involve violation of copyright law. -
Front Matter To" Modeling the Distribution and Intergenerational
This PDF is a selection from an out-of-print volume from the National Bureau of Economic Research Volume Title: Modeling the Distribution and Intergenerational Transmission of Wealth Volume Author/Editor: James D. Smith, ed. Volume Publisher: University of Chicago Press Volume ISBN: 0-226-76454-0 Volume URL: http://www.nber.org/books/smit80-1 Publication Date: 1980 Chapter Title: Front matter "Modeling the Distribution and Intergenerational Transmission of Wealth Chapter Author: James D. Smith Chapter URL: http://www.nber.org/chapters/c7441 Chapter pages in book: (p. -10 - 0) This Page Intentionally Left Blank Modeling the Distribution and Intergenerational Transmission of Wealth Studies in Income and Wealth [\FE Volume 46 i= -1 National Bureau of Economic Research Conference on Research in Income and Wealth Modeling the Distribution and Intergenerational Transmission of Wealth Editedby James D. Smith -423- The University of Chicago Press iww Chicago and London JAMES D. SMITHis Senior Project Director, Institute for Social Research, University of Michigan. The University of Chicago Press, Chicago 60637 The University of Chicago Press, Ltd., London 87 86 85 84 83 82 81 80 5 4 3 2 1 @ 1980 by the National Bureau of Economic Research All rights reserved. Published 1980 Printed in the United States of America Library of Congress Cataloging in Publication Data Main entry under title: Modeling the distribution and intergenerational trans- mission of wealth. (Studies in income and wealth ; v. 46) Includes indexes. 1. Wealth-United States-Addresses, essays, lec- tures. 2. Inheritance and succession-United States- Addresses, essays, lectures. I. Smith, James D. 11. Series: Conference on Research in Income and Wealth. -
Report to the President on the Activities of the Council of Economic Advisers During 2009
APPENDIX A REPORT TO THE PRESIDENT ON THE ACTIVITIES OF THE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS DURING 2009 letter of transmittal Council of Economic Advisers Washington, D.C., December 31, 2009 Mr. President: The Council of Economic Advisers submits this report on its activities during calendar year 2009 in accordance with the requirements of the Congress, as set forth in section 10(d) of the Employment Act of 1946 as amended by the Full Employment and Balanced Growth Act of 1978. Sincerely, Christina D. Romer, Chair Austan Goolsbee, Member Cecilia Elena Rouse, Member 307 Council Members and Their Dates of Service Name Position Oath of office date Separation date Edwin G. Nourse Chairman August 9, 1946 November 1, 1949 Leon H. Keyserling Vice Chairman August 9, 1946 Acting Chairman November 2, 1949 Chairman May 10, 1950 January 20, 1953 John D. Clark Member August 9, 1946 Vice Chairman May 10, 1950 February 11, 1953 Roy Blough Member June 29, 1950 August 20, 1952 Robert C. Turner Member September 8, 1952 January 20, 1953 Arthur F. Burns Chairman March 19, 1953 December 1, 1956 Neil H. Jacoby Member September 15, 1953 February 9, 1955 Walter W. Stewart Member December 2, 1953 April 29, 1955 Raymond J. Saulnier Member April 4, 1955 Chairman December 3, 1956 January 20, 1961 Joseph S. Davis Member May 2, 1955 October 31, 1958 Paul W. McCracken Member December 3, 1956 January 31, 1959 Karl Brandt Member November 1, 1958 January 20, 1961 Henry C. Wallich Member May 7, 1959 January 20, 1961 Walter W. Heller Chairman January 29, 1961 November 15, 1964 James Tobin Member January 29, 1961 July 31, 1962 Kermit Gordon Member January 29, 1961 December 27, 1962 Gardner Ackley Member August 3, 1962 Chairman November 16, 1964 February 15, 1968 John P. -
Nber Working Paper Series David Laidler On
NBER WORKING PAPER SERIES DAVID LAIDLER ON MONETARISM Michael Bordo Anna J. Schwartz Working Paper 12593 http://www.nber.org/papers/w12593 NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH 1050 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge, MA 02138 October 2006 This paper has been prepared for the Festschrift in Honor of David Laidler, University of Western Ontario, August 18-20, 2006. The views expressed herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Bureau of Economic Research. © 2006 by Michael Bordo and Anna J. Schwartz. All rights reserved. Short sections of text, not to exceed two paragraphs, may be quoted without explicit permission provided that full credit, including © notice, is given to the source. David Laidler on Monetarism Michael Bordo and Anna J. Schwartz NBER Working Paper No. 12593 October 2006 JEL No. E00,E50 ABSTRACT David Laidler has been a major player in the development of the monetarist tradition. As the monetarist approach lost influence on policy makers he kept defending the importance of many of its principles. In this paper we survey and assess the impact on monetary economics of Laidler's work on the demand for money and the quantity theory of money; the transmission mechanism on the link between money and nominal income; the Phillips Curve; the monetary approach to the balance of payments; and monetary policy. Michael Bordo Faculty of Economics Cambridge University Austin Robinson Building Siegwick Avenue Cambridge ENGLAND CD3, 9DD and NBER [email protected] Anna J. Schwartz NBER 365 Fifth Ave, 5th Floor New York, NY 10016-4309 and NBER [email protected] 1. -
The Transformation of Economic Analysis at the Federal Reserve During the 1960S
The Transformation of Economic Analysis at the Federal Reserve during the 1960s by Juan Acosta and Beatrice Cherrier CHOPE Working Paper No. 2019-04 January 2019 The transformation of economic analysis at the Federal Reserve during the 1960s Juan Acosta (Université de Lille) and Beatrice Cherrier (CNRS-THEMA, University of Cergy Pontoise) November 2018 Abstract: In this paper, we build on data on Fed officials, oral history repositories, and hitherto under-researched archival sources to unpack the torturous path toward crafting an institutional and intellectual space for postwar economic analysis within the Federal Reserve. We show that growing attention to new macroeconomic research was a reaction to both mounting external criticisms against the Fed’s decision- making process and a process internal to the discipline whereby institutionalism was displaced by neoclassical theory and econometrics. We argue that the rise of the number of PhD economists working at the Fed is a symptom rather than a cause of this transformation. Key to our story are a handful of economists from the Board of Governors’ Division of Research and Statistics (DRS) who paradoxically did not always held a PhD but envisioned their role as going beyond mere data accumulation and got involved in large-scale macroeconometric model building. We conclude that the divide between PhD and non-PhD economists may not be fully relevant to understand both the shift in the type of economics practiced at the Fed and the uses of this knowledge in the decision making-process. Equally important was the rift between different styles of economic analysis. 1 I. -
The Evolution of U.S. Monetary Policy
The Evolution of U. S. Monetary Policy Robert L. Hetzel Senior Economist Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond Research Department P. O. Box 27622 Richmond VA 23261 804-697-8213 [email protected] December 5, 2017 Working Paper No. 18-01 Abstract: Since the establishment of the Federal Reserve System in 1913, policymakers have always pursued the goal of economic stability. At the same time, their understanding of the world and of the role of monetary policy has changed dramatically. This evolution of views provides a laboratory for understanding what kinds of monetary policy stabilize the economy and what kinds destabilize it. JEL: E52 and E58 Paper prepared for Handbook of the History of Money and Currency, eds, Stefano Battilossi, Youssef Cassis, and Kazuhiko Yago, Springer Publishing. The author is senior economist and research advisor at the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. Stefano Battilossi provided helpful comments. The views in this paper are the author’s not the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond’s or the Federal Reserve System’s. DOI: https://doi.org/10.21144/wp18-01 Since the creation of the Federal Reserve System, the goal of policymakers has been economic stability. Policymakers’ strategies for achieving that goal have evolved with their understanding of how the world works. An overview of that understanding and of its consequences for monetary policy provides an approximation to a laboratory for understanding what constitutes a stabilizing monetary policy. As an institution, when has the Fed been a major contributor to economic stability and when has it been a major source of instability? This laboratory provides guidance in the construction of a model that allows for identification of the forces that drive prices and the business cycle. -
Tax Policy and Aggregate Demand Management Under Catching up with the Joneses
Tax Policy and Aggregate Demand Management Under Catching Up with the Joneses By LARS LJUNGQVIST AND HARALD UHLIG* This paper examines the role for tax policies in productivity-shock driven economies with catching-up-with-the-Joneses utility functions. The optimal tax policy is shown to affect the economy countercyclically via procyclical taxes, i.e., “cooling down” the economy with higher taxes when it is “overheating” in booms and “stimulating” the economy with lower taxes in recessions to keep consumption up. Thus, models with catching-up-with-the-Joneses utility functions call for traditional Keynesian demand-management policies but for rather unorthodox reasons. (JEL E21, E62, E63) Envy is one important motive of human be- the aggregate desire by other agents to “catch havior. In macroeconomics, theories built on up.” While this may not make much of a dif- envy have been used in trying to explain the ference for asset-pricing implications aside equity premium puzzle as described by Rajnish from convenience, it is interesting to take the Mehra and Edward C. Prescott (1985). Andrew externality implied by the “catching-up” formu- B. Abel (1990, 1999) and John Y. Campbell and lation seriously, and investigate its policy im- John H. Cochrane (1999) postulate utility func- plications. The externality allows room for tions exhibiting a desire to catch up with the beneficial government intervention: the optimal Joneses, i.e., if others consume more today, you, tax policy would induce agents in the competi- yourself, will experience a higher marginal util- tive equilibrium to behave in a first-best man- ity from an additional unit of consumption in ner, which is given by the solution to a social the future.1 In some ways, the idea of catching planner’s problem with habit formation. -
2017 Economic Report of the President
APPENDIX A REPORT TO THE PRESIDENT ON THE ACTIVITIES OF THE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS DURING 2016 letter of transmittal Council of Economic Advisers Washington, D.C., December 15, 2016 Mr. President: The Council of Economic Advisers submits this report on its activities during calendar year 2016 in accordance with the requirements of the Congress, as set forth in section 10(d) of the Employment Act of 1946 as amended by the Full Employment and Balanced Growth Act of 1978. Sincerely yours, Jason Furman, Chairman Sandra E. Black, Member Jay C. Shambaugh, Member Activities of the Council of Economic Advisers During 2016 | 547 Council Members and Their Dates of Service Name Position Oath of office date Separation date Edwin G. Nourse Chairman August 9, 1946 November 1, 1949 Leon H. Keyserling Vice Chairman August 9, 1946 Acting Chairman November 2, 1949 Chairman May 10, 1950 January 20, 1953 John D. Clark Member August 9, 1946 Vice Chairman May 10, 1950 February 11, 1953 Roy Blough Member June 29, 1950 August 20, 1952 Robert C. Turner Member September 8, 1952 January 20, 1953 Arthur F. Burns Chairman March 19, 1953 December 1, 1956 Neil H. Jacoby Member September 15, 1953 February 9, 1955 Walter W. Stewart Member December 2, 1953 April 29, 1955 Raymond J. Saulnier Member April 4, 1955 Chairman December 3, 1956 January 20, 1961 Joseph S. Davis Member May 2, 1955 October 31, 1958 Paul W. McCracken Member December 3, 1956 January 31, 1959 Karl Brandt Member November 1, 1958 January 20, 1961 Henry C. Wallich Member May 7, 1959 January 20, 1961 Walter W. -
Intermediate Macroeconomics: New Keynesian Model
Intermediate Macroeconomics: New Keynesian Model Eric Sims University of Notre Dame Fall 2014 1 Introduction Among mainstream academic economists and policymakers, the leading alternative to the real business cycle theory is the New Keynesian model. Whereas the real business cycle model features monetary neutrality and emphasizes that there should be no active stabilization policy by govern- ments, the New Keynesian model builds in a friction that generates monetary non-neutrality and gives rise to a welfare justification for activist economic policies. New Keynesian economics is sometimes caricatured as being radically different than real business cycle theory. This caricature is unfair. The New Keynesian model is built from exactly the same core that our benchmark model is { there are optimizing households and firms, who interact in markets and whose interactions give rise to equilibrium prices and allocations. There is really only one fundamental difference in the New Keynesian model relative to the real business cycle model { nominal prices are assumed to be \sticky." By \sticky" I simply mean that there exists some friction that prevents Pt, the money price of goods, from adjusting quickly to changing conditions. This friction gives rise to monetary non-neutrality and means that the competitive equilibrium outcome of the economy will, in general, be inefficient. By “inefficient" we mean that the equilibrium allocations in the sticky price economy are different than the fictitious social planner would choose. New Keynesian economics is to be differentiated from \old" Keynesian economics. Old Keyne- sian economics arose out of the Great Depression, adopting its name from John Maynard Keynes. Old Keynesian models were typically much more ad hoc than the optimizing models with which we work and did not feature very serious dynamics. -
The Quantity Theory, Inflation, and the Demand for Money
Quantity Theory, Inflation, and the Demand for Money This lecture examines the link between the quantity theory of money and the demand for money with special emphasis placed on how much the quantity of money demanded is affected by changes in the interest rate. The Classical Quantity Theory of Money A. Velocity of money and the equation of exchange 1. The velocity of money (V) is the average number of times per year that a dollar is spent buying goods and services in the economy , (1) where P×Y is nominal GDP and MS is the nominal money supply. 2. Example: Suppose nominal GDP is $15 trillion and the nominal money supply is $3 trillion, then velocity is $ (2) $ Thus, money turns over an average of five times a year. 3. The equation of exchange relates nominal GDP to the nominal money supply and the velocity of money MS×V = P×Y. (3) 4. The relationship in (3) is nothing more than an identity between money and nominal GDP because it does not tell us whether money or money velocity changes when nominal GDP changes. 5. Determinants of money velocity a. Institutional and technological features of the economy affect money velocity slowly over time. b. Money velocity is reasonably constant in the short run. 6. Money demand (MD) a. Lets divide both sides of (3) by V MS = (1/V)×P×Y. (4) b. In the money market, MS = MD in equilibrium. If we set k = (1/V), then (4) can be rewritten as a money demand equation MD = k×P×Y. -
Cyclical Unemployment and Policy Prescription True to Keynes, We Tell Our Story Peak to Peak
TIME AND MONEY fact that his discussion of cyclical variation is relegated to Book IV of the General Theory, titled “Short Notes Suggested by the General Theory,” and, more specifically, to a chapter entitled “Notes on the Trade Cycle.” Allowing cyclical unemployment to be the whole story as told with the aid of Figures 7.1 through 8.4 is strictly a matter of heuristics. After we have turned from the issues of cyclical unemployment and stabilization policy to the 8 issues of secular unemployment and social reform, we can easily transplant our entire discussion of business cycles into the context of an economy that is suffering from ongoing secular unemployment. Cyclical Unemployment and Policy Prescription True to Keynes, we tell our story peak to peak. Unlike the boom-begets- bust story that emerges from the capital-based macroeconomics of Chapter 4, the story told by Keynes opens with the bust. The onset of the crisis takes the FROM ACCIDENT TO DESIGN form of a “sudden collapse in the marginal efficiency of capital”–the Beginning with “Full Employment by Accident,” depicted in Figure 7.1, and suddenness being attributable to the nature of the uncertainties that attach to ending with “Full Employment by Design,” depicted in Figure 8.4, we deal long-term investment decisions in a market economy. The crisis is illustrated with the issues of market malady and fiscal fix in terms of the phases (peak-to- in Figure 8.1, “Market Malady (a Collapse in Investment Demand).” The peak) of the business cycle. The sequence of cause and consequence is tailored collapse is shown in Panel 6 as a leftward shift (from D to D’) in the demand to Keynes’s treatment of business cycles in Chapter 22 of the General Theory, for investment funds.