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Doing Business with the Euro: Risks and Opportunities THE ARTS This PDF document was made available from www.rand.org as a public CHILD POLICY service of the RAND Corporation. CIVIL JUSTICE EDUCATION Jump down to document ENERGY AND ENVIRONMENT 6 HEALTH AND HEALTH CARE INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS The RAND Corporation is a nonprofit research NATIONAL SECURITY POPULATION AND AGING organization providing objective analysis and effective PUBLIC SAFETY solutions that address the challenges facing the public SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY and private sectors around the world. 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The papers herein have been commented on by the conference attendees and both the in- troduction and collection itself have been reviewed and approved by RAND Science and Technology. Doing Business with the Euro Risks and Opportunities Keith Crane, Nathan Chandler Prepared for the Delegation of the European Commission to the United States The research described here was prepared for the Delegation of the European Commission to the United States. ISBN 0-8330-3886-9 The RAND Corporation is a nonprofit research organization providing objective analysis and effective solutions that address the challenges facing the public and private sectors around the world. RAND’s publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors. R® is a registered trademark. © Copyright 2005 RAND Corporation All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reproduced in any form by any electronic or mechanical means (including photocopying, recording, or information storage and retrieval) without permission in writing from RAND. Published 2005 by the RAND Corporation 1776 Main Street, P.O. Box 2138, Santa Monica, CA 90407-2138 1200 South Hayes Street, Arlington, VA 22202-5050 201 North Craig Street, Suite 202, Pittsburgh, PA 15213-1516 RAND URL: http://www.rand.org/ To order RAND documents or to obtain additional information, contact Distribution Services: Telephone: (310) 451-7002; Fax: (310) 451-6915; Email: [email protected] PREFACE On May 18, 2005, the RAND Corporation and the Delegation of the European Commission to the United States held a conference in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, on “Doing Business with the Euro.” The purpose of the event was to promote discussion between senior policymakers and corporate executives on the young currency’s expanding role in the global economy. The conference focused on the strategic and operational ways in which several leading U.S. corporations have successfully adjusted their accounting, financial management, and European operations to adapt to the post-euro economy, and to counsel corporations and financial institutions in the Pittsburgh region and beyond on ways to boost exports and profits by taking advantage of the emergence of the euro. This research project was conducted under the auspices of International Programs at the RAND Corporation. International Programs conducts research on regionally and internationally focused topics for a wide range of U.S. as well as international clients, including governments, foundations, and corporations. For more information on RAND's International Programs, contact the Director, Susan Everingham. She can be reached by e-mail at [email protected]; by phone at 310-393-0411, extension 7654; or by mail at the RAND Corporation, 1776 Main Street, Santa Monica, California 90407-2138. More information about RAND is available at www.rand.org. iii CONTENTS PREFACE ...................................................................................................................................... iii FIGURES ........................................................................................................................................vi ACKNOWLEDGMENTS............................................................................................................. vii I. INTRODUCTION..................................................................................................................1 The Evolution of the Euro...................................................................................................1 II. THE EURO, THE YEN, THE RENMINBI, AND THE DOLLAR: PORTFOLIO SHIFTS AND CAPITAL ACCOUNT BALANCES ...........................................................................4 The International Role of the Euro......................................................................................4 Global Current Account Imbalances...................................................................................7 Outlook for the International Role of the Euro ...................................................................8 Asia .................................................................................................................................10 III. THE EURO AND GLOBAL FINANCE: IMPLICATIONS FOR EUROPEAN AND NORTH AMERICAN BUSINESS ......................................................................................14 Corporate Transaction Financing Before the Euro ...........................................................14 Corporate Transaction Financing Since the Euro .............................................................15 IV. SYNOPSIS OF SECRETARY O’NEILL’S KEYNOTE ADDRESS..................................16 V. CORPORATE EXPERIENCES WITH THE EURO: EFFECTS ON BUSINESS STRATEGIES AND OPERATIONS...................................................................................18 Corporate Experiences: A Case Study in Adaptation .......................................................18 VI. THE EURO: IMPLICATIONS FOR GLOBAL TRADE AND INVESTMENT................22 The First Six Years: Impact on Trade and Foreign Direct Investment .............................22 The Euro Into the Future ...................................................................................................26 VII. CONCLUSIONS ..................................................................................................................31 A. CONFERENCE AGENDA ..................................................................................................35 B. SPEAKER BIOGRAPHIES .................................................................................................37 v FIGURES Figure 1: Change in the Share of Euro-Denominated Securities in the Stock of International Issues—1994–2004 (Percent Points), Source: European Central Bank Calculations. ........6 Figure 2: Declines in Inflation in Central Europe, Source: International Financial Statistics, International Monetary Fund .............................................................................................29 vi ACKNOWLEDGMENTS We would like to express our deep gratitude to the Delegation of the European Commission to the United States for sponsoring this conference, particular Mr. Hervé Carré, Mr. Moreno Bertoldi, Ambassador John Bruton, and Ms. Amy Medearis. We would also like to thank the conference participants for their valuable contributions: Dr. J. Onno de Beaufort Wijnholds, Dr. Norbert Walter, Dr. William Overholt, Professor Alberta Sbragia, Mr. James Rohr, Mr. L. Patrick Hassey, Dr. James Thomson, Mr. Paul H. O’Neill, Dr. Attila Molnar, Mr. David Richards, Ambassador James Dobbins, Mr. Gary Litman, Mr. Barry Balmat,andMr.TedSmyth. Finally, we are grateful to Ms. Lynn Helbling Sirinek, Ms. Michelle McMullen, Ms. Vicki Wiedrich, and Ms. Paige Parham for their assistance in coordinating the details of this conference. vii I. INTRODUCTION On May 18, 2005, the RAND Corporation, with the support of the Delegation of the European Commission to the United States, organized a conference in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, on “Doing Business with the Euro: Risks and Opportunities.” The conference brought together over 90 executives of major corporations, senior policymakers, and academic specialists from throughout the United States and Europe. Its purpose was to better inform leaders of the American business and financial communities about the economic effects and implications of the euro for U.S. business operations, and to share the experiences of U.S. and European chief executive officers (CEOs) in reorganizing their operations in response to the introduction of the new currency in 1999. The day’s discussions were highlighted by a keynote address by Paul H. O’Neill, former Secretary of the United States Treasury and former CEO of Alcoa. This report summarizes the discussions of the conference. James Thomson, President and CEO of RAND, and Hervé Carré, Minister for Economic, Financial and Development Affairs at the Delegation of the European Commission to the United States, introduced the conference. In his opening statement, Dr. Thomson noted that the timing of conferences often seems to coincide,
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