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Western Europe Pay TV Subs Up, Revenues Down

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Western Europe Pay TV Subs Up, Revenues Down Western Europe pay TV subs up, revenues down Western European pay TV will gain subscribers between 2017 and 2023. Although this only represents a 2.6% increase, the Western Europe Pay TV Forecasts report estimates nearly 3 million more subs to take the total to 106 million. Simon Murray, Principal Analyst at Digital TV Research, said: “Much of the pay TV subscriber growth will come from countries with traditionally low pay TV penetration. More than half of the region’s next additions will come from Italy [up by 960,000 between 2017 and 2023] and Spain [up by 716,000]. Germany will add 913,000 subscribers.” Murray continued: “However, subscriber numbers will fall for six of the 18 countries covered in the report. The UK will be the worst affected, although it will only lose 234,000 subs between 2017 and 2023.” IPTV is gaining share at the expense of the other pay TV platforms; having overtaken satellite TV in 2015. IPTV will add 8 million subscribers between 2017 and 2023 but pay satellite TV will lose more than 2 million. Some telcos (especially Telefonica in Spain and Canal Plus in France) are actively moving their satellite TV subs to more lucrative broadband bundles. Spain and France will both lose 1 million pay satellite TV subs between 2017 and 2023. Sky will soon offer its full satellite TV line-up online. Some satellite TV subs are expected to convert to the online platform; resulting in 691,000 fewer pay satellite TV subs in the UK between 2017 and 2023. Despite subscriptions increasing, pay TV revenues will fall – by $2.11 billion between 2017 and 2023 to $27.27 billion. Revenues will fall in all but three of the 18 countries covered in the report. The UK will lose $628 million over this period, although it will remain the most lucrative pay TV market by 2023. Regardless of having the most pay TV subs by some distance, Germany’s pay TV revenues will remain a lot lower than the UK – at $3.61 billion by 2023. Italy will overtake Germany in 2023. Satellite TV will remain the highest-earning pay TV platform, but its revenues will fall every year from 2011 – and will decline by $2 billion between 2017 and 2023. Mirroring its subscriber increases, IPTV revenues will climb by 16% between 2017 and 2023 to $6.43 billion – or up by $883 million. Cable TV revenues peaked in 2010. Cable TV will lose $866 million between 2017 and 2023. Western Europe’s top three operators will account for 39% of the region’s pay TV subscribers by 2023. The same companies will take 50% of pay TV revenues. Western Europe pay TV revenues by platform ($ million) 35,000 30,000 891 589 53 25,000 8,675 8,926 8,647 20,000 5,546 5,870 15,000 6,429 1,662 1,658 1,516 10,000 12,610 5,000 12,234 10,630 0 2017 2018 2023 Satellite TV Pay DTT IPTV Digital cable TV Analog cable TV Source: Digital TV Research Ltd Liberty Global has been the largest international pay TV operator in Europe for some time. However, Sky is closing the gap. By 2023, Liberty Global will have 17.89 million subscribers (including all of Ziggo) compared with Sky’s 14.86 million (satellite TV only). Third-placed Vodafone will have 8.85 million subscribers (excluding the Netherlands’ Ziggo). Vodafone may acquire at least some of Liberty Global’s European assets. Sky will remain the pay TV revenue leader by some distance, with $8.49 billion from its satellite TV operations in 2023. Liberty Global will contribute a further $3.91 billion and Vodafone $1.21 billion. Western Europe Pay TV Forecasts Table of Contents Published in March 2018, this 218-page PDF and excel report comes in six parts: • Executive summary and regional forecasts, with handy comparison tables to reveal the best growth prospects; • Regional forecasts summary from 2010 to 2023 by platform, by household penetration, by pay TV subscribers and by pay TV revenues; • Major pay TV operators; • Country profiles and analysis for 18 territories; • Detailed forecasts for 18 countries, including 79 operators. • NEW FOR 2018: Prospects. Summary subscriber forecasts for 18 countries in a graphically appealing 39-page document. For more information, please click here or contact [email protected] If you do not want the full report, you can buy the Western Europe Pay TV Prospects report for half the price of the full report. Please contact [email protected] for more details, including the table of contents and sample pages. Forecasts for the following 18 countries and 79 operators: Country No of ops Operators Austria 4 Telekom Austria; UPC; Sky; Liwest Belgium 5 Proximus; SFR; Telenet; VOO; Telesat/TV Vlaanderen Denmark 6 Canal Digital; Viasat; You See; Stofa; Boxer; TDC Finland 5 Elisa; Telia; DNA; Canal Digital; Viasat France 7 Orange; SFR; CanalSat; Altice; Free; Bouygues; TNT Germany 8 Kabel Deutschland; Vodafone; DT/T-Home; Sky; Unitymedia; Telecolumbus; HD+; Freenet Iceland 2 Vodafone, Siminn Ireland 3 Virgin; Sky; eir Italy 3 Mediaset; Sky; Telecom Italia Luxembourg 2 Tele des P&T; Eltrona Malta 2 Melita; Go Netherlands 5 UPC/Ziggo; Canal Digitaal; Tele 2; KPN/Digitenne Norway 5 Canal Digital; Viasat; Riks TV; Telenor; Get Portugal 4 Meo/PT; NOS/Zon; Nowo/Cabovisao; Vodafone Spain 5 Ono/Vodafone; Canal Plus/Telefonica/Movistar; Euskatel; Orange; Telecable Sweden 6 Canal Digital; Viasat; Com Hem; Telia; Boxer; Telenor Switzerland 3 Swisscom; UPC/Cablecom; Sunrise UK 4 Sky; Virgin; BT; TalkTalk SAMPLE: Denmark pay TV insight • Pay TV penetration already runs at 91% - so it will not grow. Pay TV penetration shot up in 2011 as public broadcaster TV2 moved from the FTA DTT to the pay DTT option. However, pay DTT is forecast to fall. Competition will intensify, leading to lower TV ARPU figures and falling pay TV revenues from 2015 onwards. Main assumptions behind the forecasts • Pay TV penetration is already high. • Little movement is expected between platforms, although IPTV will see some growth and cable and satellite TV will fall. • Market maturity will lead to lower ARPUs • The local currency strengthened against the USD in 2017. Source: Digital TV Research • Full digital TV conversion was achieved in 2017. Cable TV penetration is at 56% of homes, down from 67% in 2010. IPTV will continue to grow – to more than a fifth of TV households. Pay satellite TV will continue to experience falling subs numbers as homes convert to cheaper options and bundles on other platforms, with pay DTT also falling. • Denmark has 1.41 million cable households, although saturation point has been reached. Leading operators TDC’s YouSee and Stofa together control about 90% of cable subs. • Stofa’s cable subscription growth has been marginal in recent years. The company has about 329,000 subs, of which half are counted via third-party local operators (mostly 300 housing associations). We do not expect any TV subscriber growth. Digital subs pay DKK229-549/month ($35.73-85.65) for 27- 61 channels. Stofa also offers SVOD platforms C More and Viasat Film. About 200,000 subs also take broadband services. • In October 2012, co-operative Syd Energi bought Stofa from Sweden’s Ratos for DKK1,900 million. In early 2015, Stofa took a 25% stake in broadband provider Waoo! • TDC had 1.30 million basic cable TV subs at end-2017; down year-on-year. TDC’s cable (YouSee) and IPTV interests accounted for 56% of Denmark’s pay TV subscribers at end-2017. TDC TV controls about two-thirds of the IPTV market; with 312,000 subscribers at end-2017, with 353,000 expected by 2023. TDC TV and YouSee operational highlights 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 TDC TV subs (000) 128 152 190 218 258 277 297 YouSee TV subs (000) 1,179 1,192 1,166 1,152 1,099 1,082 Total TV subs (000) 1,392 1,393 1,420 1,377 1,379 1,299 TDC TV ARPU (DKK) 335 333 308 323 315 305 YouSee TV ARPU (DKK) 214 226 234 234 242 TV ARPU (DKK) 254 256 258 Source: TDC • The company introduced a 300Mbps broadband service in January 2015. Mobile services were added in January 2013. The HBO SVOD platform is also available. • The company launched quad-play services in 2011 across its HFC network that covers 1.5 million premises. By 2018, TDC wants to be able to offer 50% of households 1,000Mbps, 70% 100Mbps and 100% 10Mbps. TDC had 1.90 million mobile subs and 1.03 million residential broadband ones by end-2017. • In February 2018, TDC received a takeover bid from Macquarie and some pension funds. This bid came days after TDC acquired MTG’s Nordic entertainment assets for €2 billion. The bid for MTG’s assets was dropped following the Macquarie bid. Viasat Nordic pay TV operations (000) 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Denmark 106 104 98 92 86 84 75 66 Finland 46 45 42 40 36 34 31 27 Norway 159 153 131 118 111 108 97 86 Sweden 352 336 321 309 293 282 253 223 Premium satellite TV 663 638 592 559 526 508 456 402 subs of which ViasatPlus 158 188 192 of which multiroom 235 250 250 235 of which HD 210 297 341 358 Basic satellite TV subs 43 38 46 40 33 18 Wholesale cable & 394 421 427 418 456 506 544 529 IPTV subs Annualized ARPU 4,555 4,791 4,988 5,075 5,254 5,161 5,508 5,500 (SEK) Source: Modern Times Group.
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