Finding Restaurant Investment Opportunities As the Moat -Disruptive Fast-Casual Category Matures
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? April 2015 September 2014 Finding Restaurant Investment Opportunities as the Moat-Disruptive Fast-Casual Category Matures Contents Executive Summary Restaurants have been one of the most intriguing categories within the consumer space the past several 2 Key Takeaways 5 Best Ideas years, with fast-casual chains like Chipotle and Panera increasingly becoming disruptive forces for both traditional quick-service and casual-dining restaurant chains. Broadly speaking, we believe that many 7 Fast-Casual Has Reshaped Preferences Across the Restaurant Category, fast-casual concepts warrant premium valuations relative to their peers because of the pricing power Resulting in Material Changes in inherent in their brands—the impetus for positive moat trends for many players in the space—as well Industry Pricing Power as a cost-effective model than casual-dining players. However, as many established fast-casual chains 27 Are There Any Restaurant Investment reach maturity at a time when smaller emergent players have relatively easy access to attractive real Opportunities in a Market Willing to Pay estate and inexpensive rents, we believe investors must be cognizant of the potential fast-casual More Than 500 Times for Shake Shack? "bubble" in the market today. 49 Assessing Traditional Restaurants' Countermeasures to Fast-Casual Additionally, increased competition from fast-casual players has triggered many strategic Competitive Pressures countermeasures to unlock value across other quick-service and casual-dining restaurant chains. This 67 How Have Restaurant Industry includes more straightforward efforts such as localized/regional menu and marketing decisions, Changes Reshaped Our Moat Rating increased customization, mobile ordering, and reimaging efforts leveraging digital platforms but also Methodology? more aggressive tactics such as more aggressive franchising/refranchising, real estate transactions, and Restaurant Coverage Universe spin-offs. In this report, we also examine which strategic actions can realistically unlock shareholder value, and opportunities where these efforts haven't been priced into the stocks. 69 Panera 71 Yum Brands 73 Starbucks Morningstar’s Top Restaurant Investment Ideas 75 Restaurant Brands International 77 McDonald's Economic Moat Fair Value Current Uncertainty Morningstar Credit Market 79 Chipotle Name/Ticker Moat Trend Currency Estimate Price Rating Rating Rating Cap(Bil) 81 Darden Panera PNRA None Positive USD 184.00 165.97 Medium QQQQ — 4.4 83 Dunkin' Brands Starbucks SBUX Wide Positive USD 50.00 47.62 Medium QQQ A- 71.4 Yum Brands YUM Narrow Stable USD 88.00 78.30 Medium QQQQ BBB 33.9 85 Appendix Page 2 of 86 Consumer Observer | 9 April 2015 Page 2 of 86 Healthcare Observer | 14 April 2015 Key Takeaways Fast-Casual Has Reshaped Preferences Across the Restaurant Category, Resulting in Material Lead Analyst Changes in Industry Pricing Power × Fast-casual restaurants have better adjusted to changes in consumer behavior during the past several R. J. Hottovy, CFA years, including increased spending power among minority groups and millennials (which has created Consumer Equity Strategist +1 312-244-7060 demand for a wider variety of flavors, better-for-you products, and locally sourced food), evolving views [email protected] about in-restaurant experiences (resulting in consumer calls for customizable menus and faster throughput), and widespread advances in consumer-facing technologies (leading to mobile-based ordering, payment, and loyalty programs as well as in-restaurant wireless offerings). × More important, consumers aren't just willing to visit fast-casual chains more frequently; they're also willing to pay premium prices for the product and restaurant experience. The companies that have stayed ahead of changing consumer preferences have also experienced a meaningful increase in average checks during the past five years, while the increase for traditional quick-service restaurants, or QSRs, has been more muted. In our view, the increase in average check suggests greater pricing power, and by extension, a strengthening of the brand intangible asset source that we consider when evaluating economic moats among retailers and restaurants. × The ability to adapt to evolving consumer preferences, and the subsequent pricing power, was a key consideration behind the positive moat trends we've assigned to fast-casual chains such as Chipotle and Panera as well as Starbucks. Likewise, the inability to react to these changes was a factor in our negative moat trend for McDonald's and the removal of our narrow moat rating for Darden. Are There Any Restaurant Investment Opportunities in a Market Willing to Pay 500 Times for Shake Shack? × With fast-casual restaurants aligned with changes in consumer dining-out preferences and favorable retail rent and vacancy trends, we expect the fast-casual category revenue to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 9.4% during the next five years, taking share from QSRs and casual-dining restaurants, or CDRs, which we expect to grow 4.1% and 3.7%, respectively. × The rise of e-commerce has reduced the number of reliable growth concepts among traditional retailers, which we believe has led to higher valuations across much of the restaurant industry (which now trades at a forward price/earnings multiple of almost 26 times, up from 16 times five years ago). While some of this multiple expansion is warranted given the growth potential and the lack of a major disruptive presence like Amazon, we generally believe the market has overshot the longer-term potential of many fast-casual concepts such as Noodles & Company, Zoe's Kitchen, and Habit Restaurants. × Conversely, we find shares of Panera attractive at current levels and believe the market isn't giving the company enough credit for its longer-term unit growth opportunities (both traditional locations and delivery and catering hubs) and the cash flow potential of its "Panera 2.0" restaurant remodeling initiative. Page 3 of 86 Consumer Observer | 9 April 2015 Page 3 of 86 Healthcare Observer | 14 April 2015 Assessing Traditional Restaurants' Countermeasures to Fast-Casual Competitive Pressures × We believe consumers' willingness to pay premium prices has been at the heart of the recent QSR industry movement toward fewer menu items, but more customization options. However, we believe it will take time for QSRs to realize the benefits of these menu changes, where rationalizing the number of menu items helps speed up service and customer experience improves over the next year or so followed by increased awareness and adoption of menu customization options. × For many traditional restaurant operators, we believe that expansion into other dayparts (breakfast and snacking, for example), increased adoption of technology to increase throughput via mobile ordering and payments, and greater delivery/catering alternatives have the potential to improve store productivity through both increased guest counts and higher average checks. We view each of the Best Ideas that we've highlighted in this report—Panera, Starbucks, and Yum Brands—as well-positioned to achieve better utilization trends out of their existing restaurants in the years to come. × While refranchising isn't the sole factor driving multiple expansion in the industry, it's noteworthy that the companies that have pursued refranchising more aggressively have generally experienced greater multiple expansion over the past five years. We believe McDonald's will probably explore refranchising options in the near future, as recently appointed CEO Steve Easterbrook has said he is committed to considering "all options" to improve shareholder value. However, refranchising efforts at Panera and Yum could also provide positive catalysts over the next several years. × We believe the market's appetite for potential real estate transactions have increased over the past year given the current low interest-rate environment and REIT spin-off announcements from other retailer and restaurant chains. With $39 billion in land and building assets on its balance sheet as of December 2014 and $6.1 billion in rents collected from franchisees last year, McDonald's remains a popular target for real estate transactions among activist investors and hedge funds. The potential tax savings would ultimately depend on how much real estate the company was willing to commit to a property company subsidiary, but because REITs must pay out at least 90% of taxable earnings to shareholders as dividends and don't pay federal income taxes on income distributed to shareholders, we believe McDonald's could unlock shareholder value by creating an internal REIT. × We generally have mixed views on separating multibrand restaurant companies into separate publicly or privately held entities. On one hand, we appreciate that different chains have different target audiences, growth trajectories, and capital needs, which can put considerable strain on management teams. On the other hand, separating brands also runs the risk of trading short-term gains for diminished scale advantages—particularly with respect to overhead, purchasing, and advertising—which can destroy value. The idea of separating Yum's China division has some merit, as we've long thought that Yum was much more than a China growth story and believe that separation would allow investors to tailor their level of exposure to China and Yum's other emerging markets. Additionally, Yum China is a mostly self- contained supply chain, distribution, site selection,