FEATURES

Environmental changes in perspective: The global response to challenges

Through Earthwatch and the Agenda 21 action plan, the IAEA is contributing to global efforts addressing environmental problems

by Pier Roberto we approach the end of the second millen- a "cosmic clock". (See figure, page 4.) This Danesi and Hadj nium, a series of major problems seems to clock has a dial compressing the entire history of Slimane Cherif threaten the world's rapidly expanding popula- the planet into a 24-hour day. The birth of the tion: the consequences of global warming, the planet is set at 00:00 hours and the present is set hole in the ozone layer, of the Earth's at 24:00 hours. On this scale the appearance of oceans, fresh waters, soil and atmosphere, the homo sapiens occurs only at about two seconds declining , and the degradation of before present. The rapidity of the induced land and soil quality. Concerns appear to be changes is even more striking when one consid- justified, at least as long as the world's main ers that our ancestors were hunter-gatherers until development goals continue to be the economic 10,000 years ago when, with the domestication levels of its wealthiest nations and their high of plants and animals, agriculture was invented. consumption and waste production patterns. It is then only at about 0.2 seconds before present How can we better assess and appreciate the in the "cosmic clock", when human communi- impact that anthropogenic environmental ties started to become controllers of the global changes have made to our planet and the magni- ecosystem rather than an integral part of it. (See tude of growth? table, page 4.) It may first be worthwhile to place them into As agriculture developed and more of the an appropriate time perspective relative to the Earth's surface was modified, food surpluses overall age of the Earth. Our planet was formed permitted the establishment of permanent settle- about 4.5 billion years ago. It took about one ments. With the introduction of metal-working billion years before the first bacterial organisms technology, more efficient tools for environ- appeared and about 2.5 billion years before the mental manipulation were introduced. Gradually atmosphere contained enough oxygen to eventu- agriculture and metal smelting expanded at the ally permit the formation of the first modern cells expense of forests. Cleared land was used for (eucaryotic cells). Nevertheless, their develop- cultivation and forest wood for construction and ment required another one billion years. The to generate charcoal for larger scale metal smelt- development of life over the following 1.5 bil- ing. However these processes had moderate or lion years progressively brought the environ- negligible impacts on the global environment ment of our planet to the state it was known to until the beginning of the Industrial Revolution the first homo sapiens of about 100,000 years (about 250 years ago or just 0.004 seconds be- ago. In practice, it took the entire age of the fore present on the "cosmic clock"). Earth, namely about 4.5 billion years, to develop As coal replaced wood for fuel, triggering the a natural environment that stayed practically un- rapid rise of fossil fuel consumption and the affected by anthropogenic effects until about beginning of industrialization in northwest 10,000 years ago. Europe, the magnitude of environmental The "Cosmic Clock". The time of major changes started to increase dramatically. Inten- events which characterized the evolution of the sive agriculture and expanding industrial activi- Earth can be represented on what has been called ties — the creators of and wealth which permitted the human race to expand — would also become threats to the Earth's life Mr. Danesi is Director of the IAEA's Laboratories at Seibers- support system. However, considering that in dorf and Vienna. Mr. Cherif is Special Assistant to the IAEA 1830 the was about one billion, Director General in the area of technical co-operation, nuclear power and safety, and nuclear applications. it is not surprising that it took more than another

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century before the world started to become tary problems when human and industrial waste Rice fields in Indonesia. aware of the environmental changes that indus- is disposed of without appropriate and costly (Credit: Curt Camemark, trial development and agriculture were causing. measures. At the same time, rural areas tend to World Bank) The size of the problem can be fully appreci- become environmentally damaged as migration ated when one considers the rapidity of the world to towns encourages the abandonment of envi- population's growth after the Industrial Revolu- ronmentally sound agricultural practices, such as tion. (See graph, next page.) The population of irrigation, terracing, and crop rotation. The push the world was about 200 million at the time the towards the introduction of cash crops creates Greek philosopher Aristotle was born (384 BC). additional environmental problems. It took about 2000 years (1650) to reach 500 However, it must be emphasized that the million. Over the next 150 years (by 1830) the influence of population growth on environ- population had doubled to one billion and it took mental changes is rather complex. It involves, only 100 years (1930) to reach two billion. among others, complex correlations among in- Now, only 65 years later, we are approaching come levels, production, and consumption pat- the six billion value. By the year 2100 we will be terns. For example, although the industrialized 12 billion. This population growth is particularly countries contain 23% of the world population, alarming because it will almost entirely occur in it has been estimated that they are presently pro- the developing countries, which already host ducing more than 75% of the world's waste. The 77% of the world population but share only 15% main reason is that these countries, with their of the world income. high living standards, produce and consume Moreover, actual trends indicate that soon large quantities of energy to manufacture goods the world population will mainly concentrate and deliver the services their population expects. (about 50%) in big megacities, having between This is inevitably associated with the generation 15 and 25 million inhabitants. The concentration of considerable waste. of people in big has strong negative effects Although the gap in income between the rich on both urban and rural environments. Cities and poor countries of the world may not decrease generate huge amounts of solid, liquid, and gase- in the future, it is expected that the income levels ous wastes, causing water and air pollution prob- of the poor countries will slowly rise between lems. Moreover, they can create enormous sani- now and the year 2025. A minor income in-

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Some approximate dates important for the The "Cosmic Clock": 4.5 billion years of the planet Earth evolution of life, humans and culture compressed into one day Years Time of the Homo Sapiens before event before appears at 23:59:58 present present on the 24-hour cosmic clock Plants invade Birth of land Planet Earth Life First Vertebrates 500 million 2 hrs and 30 min Multicellular Ancient First Reptiles 300 million 1 hr and 30 min organisms bedrocks First Mammals 200 million 1 hr First Primates 70 million 20 min First bacterial organisms Humans Earliest Homides 4 million 80 sec Stone tools 2 million 40 sec Homo Sapiens 100 000 2 sec Modern cells Culture Blue-green algae; photosynthesis Invention 10 000 0.2 sec of agriculture First cities and 5 000 0.1 sec writing Scientific Age 500 0.01 sec (Copernicus) Source: Adapted from "Svensk Industrial Age 250 0.004 sec Energifdrsdrjning 1990". Twentieth Century 100 0.002 sec

Adapted from A. Hobson, "Education in Global Change", A Planet in our Hands, G. Marx, Editor, Roland Eotvos Physical Society, Budapest (1995). The population explosion

12 billion by the year 2100 AD crease, coupled with a sharp increase of the population, has led to the estimate that by the year 2025 about half of the world's waste (and 85% of the new wastes) will be generated by developing countries. This indicates that it is not simply population growth but population growth combined with living standards that threatens to accelerate environmental degradation.

\ 6 billion by the year 2100 AD Signs of environmental changes

At this point, a legitimate question might be asked: To what extent has human development al- ready caused environmental changes during the last two thousandths of a second (0.002 sec), which represents the 20th century, on the "cosmic clock'? 2 billion in 1900AD Much has been written on the greenhouse effect caused by the release of carbon dioxide 1 billion in 1800 AD during the burning of fossil fuels and by other gases, and about global wanning and whether it 400 200 0 200 400 600 800 1000120014001600180020002200 already has been detected. Extensive literature B.C. B.C. Year also exists on the causes and consequences of the hole in the ozone layer and other signs of local Source: Adapted from A. Hobson, 'Education in Global Change', from "A Planet in and global environmental changes induced by Our Hands',G. Marx Ed., Roland E6tv6s Physical Society, Budapest, 1995, Page 18. human activities. Unfortunately, precise envi- ronmental indicators are in general still lacking

IAEA BULLETIN, 2/1996 FEATURES and in most cases only approximate estimates are available. The signs are in any case rather alarm- Differentregions of the world affected by land degradation ing. A few examples will be sufficient to sense (million hectares) the extent of the global and local problems we are and will be facing in the near future. For example, it has been estimated that each second we lose 1000 tonnes of top soil and 3000 South and square meters of forest worldwide. Another 2000 Type Africa Asia Central Total square meters of arable land become desert, America 1000 tonnes of unwanted gases are released to the atmosphere, and 1000 tonnes of wastes are Water erosion 170 315 77 562 generated.* The number of living species which Wind erosion 98 90 16 204 become exterminated every day has been esti- mated to be close to 100. Nutrient loss 25 10 43 78 As far as the production of food is concerned, Salination 10 26 — 36 land degradation is one of the major environ- mental issues. Population growth, urbanization, Total 880 and the need to raise the standard of living of developing countries are increasingly modifying land use. Desertification, erosion and urbaniza- Source: H. Oldeman et al., 1990 tion have apparently reduced the arable land per person from about 0.45 hectares (ha) per person in 1960 to about 0.24 ha/person in 1995 and it has been estimated that by the year 2025 this will How world soil conditions limit agriculture be further reduced to only 0.13 ha/person. Differ- ent regions of the world are affected by land degradation to different extents, with the major • Too dry problems experienced by the poorest countries of Africa and Asia. (See table.) Moreover, B Chemical problems chemical problems and lack of water affect more n Soil too shallow than 50% of the soil, and only 11% of the world soil presents no limitations for agriculture. (See • Too wet graph.) • Permafrost The mobilization of chemicals in water, soil, and the atmosphere is another issue of • No limitations serious environmental concern. Today more than 11 million chemical substances are known and 70,000 of them are in general use. The Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) has identified only Source: Data from This is Codex Alimentarius", 2nd edition, 1500 chemicals produced in excess of 1000 FAO/WHO I/T353OE/1/5.94/5000. tonnes/year; unfortunately adequate data about the toxicological and environmental ef- fects exist only for a small fraction of them. grated into most political and economic deci- This means that decisions about their permit- sion-making mechanisms and have become as ted environmental limits have to be taken in fundamental as economics in determining devel- most cases in the absence of adequate scien- opment policies. tific knowledge. This can lead to negative con- sequences on people, in the event of uncon- trolled release to the environment of toxic sub- The UN response: Agenda 21 stances. It can also create serious impediments to agricultural and industrial development, if regu- The concept of latory authorities apply rigid precautionary prin- stems from the conviction that the basic standard ciples to practically harmless compounds. of living of the world's population can be in- These examples explain why over the years creased without unnecessarily depleting the ex- environmental factors have been gradually inte- isting finite resources of the planet and degrad- ing further the environment. At the Earth Sum- * See Environmental Management Handbook, S. Ryding.IOS mit in in June 1992, a plan of Press, Amsterdam, Oxford, (1992). action was formulated and agreed upon by the

IAEA BULLETIN, 2/1996 FEATURES world community. This plan, known as Agenda partments, to make sure that they receive appro- 21 deals, as the name indicates, with the chal- priate priority, and to monitor the evaluation and lenges of the 21st century.* The plan addresses assessment of the relevant results. many pressing problems of the world and sug- Nuclear techniques and technologies for gests a certain number of interrelated actions. sustainable development. Technology can be the These actions are to be taken by the various key key a more effective and rational utilization of the players in different countries according to their world's limited resources and to sustainable devel- capacities, situations and priorities, while taking opment as well. The progress in science and technol- into account the principles contained in the Rio ogy is a significant factor in setting the pattern and declaration on Environment and Development. rate of development of the human societies around Agenda 21 covers a large number of topics the world. The common belief is that with the help of under the broad concept of sustainable develop- science and technology it is possible to find ap- ment. It is divided into 40 chapters, covering proaches to strike a balance between develop- subjects ranging from combating poverty to pro- ment needs and environmental conservation. tection of the atmosphere, combating deforesta- In particular, the utility and applicability of tion, , the management of nuclear science and technology for both devel- toxic chemicals and hazardous waste, and sci- oping and developed countries has been amply ence for sustainable development. While the im- demonstrated. They have demonstrated their ef- plementation of Agenda 21 is the responsibility fectiveness in fields such as human health, fresh of governments, international co-operation water resources, climate change, protection of should support and supplement national efforts. the atmosphere, the oceans and the seas, food In this context the system has security, and sustainable agriculture. Radiation a key role to play and has taken important steps technology and isotope techniques have a broad in this respect. In 1993, the General Assembly domain of application in practically all areas established a Commission on Sustainable Devel- covered by Agenda 21 and are indeed relevant to opment (CSD), consisting of 53 elected UN the protection of the environment and to sustain- Member States, to ensure effective follow-up to able industrial and agricultural development. the Rio Conference and monitor progress in the Nuclear technology is now a fact of everyday life implementation of Agenda 21. The Inter- and the knowledge acquired over 100 years since Agency Committee on Sustainable Develop- the discovery of radioactivity still continues to ment (IACSD), in which the IAEA is an active be put to good use for the benefit of humanity, member, ensures co-ordination among the or- both in material terms and for improving the ganizations and specialized agencies of the quality of life. United Nations system. The IAEA has contrib- uted to the work of the CSD in several sectoral topical clusters, including health, land, desertifi- Earthwatch & environmental cation, forests and biodiversity, atmosphere, monitoring: IAEA contributions oceans and fresh water, toxic chemicals, and hazardous wastes. The IAEA is also the task Twenty-five years ago, in 1972, Earthwatch manager for the follow-up to the chapter of was established as part of the United Nations Agenda 21 (Chapter 22) on radioactive wastes. system-wide mechanism, co-ordinated by The United Nations Environment Pro- UNEP, to monitor major global disturbances in gramme (UNEP), which has received the man- the environment and to give early warning of date to co-ordinate environmental activities in problems requiring urgent action. In 1994 the the United Nations system, established in 1995 mission of Earthwatch was redefined as: to co- an Inter-Agency Environmental Co-ordination ordinate, harmonize and integrate observations, Group (IAEG). The IAEA is an active member assessment, and reporting activities across the of this consultative body, whose terms of refer- United Nations system in order to provide envi- ence and plan of work are prepared in full co-or- ronmental and appropriate socioeconomic in- dination with IACSD. formation for national and international deci- Within the IAEA's Secretariat, an Inter-De- sion-making for sustainable development and partmental Co-ordination Group on Agenda 21 for early warning of emerging problems requir- has been set up for co-ordinated follow-up of the ing international action. large number of environment and sustainable The IAEA has participated in Earthwatch development projects addressed by several De- activities since its inception. Presently it pro- vides input through its environmental data col- lection and assessment tasks which constitute a *Agenda 21: Earth's Action Plan, annotated, D. Nicholas, A. Robinson, Editors, IUCN Environmental Policy and Law substantial part of its programme. Of primary Paper No. 27, New York, Oceana Publications (1993). relevance to the Agency's mandate is the com-

IAEA BULLETIN, 2/1996 FEATURES prehensive technical support for national, re- Different means are used to collect data, gional, and global assessments of radioactive namely through: pollutants. The Agency also uses nuclear and • the analysis of samples carried out directly at nuclear-related techniques for the analysis of IAEA Laboratories in Seibersdorf, Vienna, and non-radioactive pollutants and for the study of the Monaco by nuclear and nuclear-related analyti- pollution impact on humans and the environment. cal techniques. The samples are taken by IAEA With respect to Earthwatch, the Agency is experts during missions or are sent to the Agency active in various areas: data collection, assess- from throughout the world, including collection ment and reporting; capacity building; harmoni- stations networks. zation and quality control of data as well as • laboratories participating in intercomparison standardization of methodologies to ensure reli- exercises, whereby samples are analyzed by sev- able and comparable information on the environ- eral laboratories to check the reliability of their ment at the national and international level; and performance. establishing early warning, notification and • co-ordinated research programmes. emergency response systems. • questionnaires sent to Member States. Range of IAEA activities. The Agency's ac- • the scientific literature. tivities cover the analysis of radioactive contami- • official data from Member States, including nants in the environment and food; environmental responses to formal requests. radioactivity monitoring for surveillance and for • national centres of the International Nuclear compliance with authorized procedures; the analy- Information System (IMS). These centres are sis of non-radioactive pollutants (toxic metals, designated by the respective governments and chlorinated organic compounds, pesticides) in air, maintain close liaison with INIS Headquarters at water, soil, and biota by nuclear and nuclear-re- the IAEA Secretariat in Vienna. lated analytical techniques; studies on pollutant The data relevant to Earthwatch directly gen- transport in air and water; and safety analysis and erated or collected by the IAEA can be grouped assessment of nuclear installations and facilities. into several categories, namely: Emergency response. Of major relevance to • data on concentrations of radionuclides, trace Earthwatch is the Emergency Response System metals, and organic compounds in soil, air, air- operated in conjunction with the Convention on borne particulate matter, fresh waters, food and Early Notification of a Nuclear Accident and the the marine environment (water, sediments and Convention on Assistance in the Case of a Nu- biota). The analytical data refer to (1) man-made clear Accident or Radiological Emergency. In and natural radionuclides with determination of the Early Notification Convention of 27 October strontium-90 (Sr-90), ruthenium-106 (Ru-106), 1986, States Parties have agreed that for an acci- antimony-125 (Sb-125), caesium-134 (Cs-134), dent having actual or potential transboundary Cs-137, plutonium-238 (Pu-238), Pu-239, Pu- radioactive consequences, they will provide im- 240, americium-241 (Am-241), iodine-129 (I- mediate notification to the IAEA and to those 129), potassium-40 (K-40), lead-210 (Pb-210), countries that could possibly be affected and any polonium-210 (Po-210), radium-226 (Ra-226), supplementary information to take appropriate Ra-228, actinium-228 (Ac-228), thorium (Th), response actions. Through the Assistance Con- uranium (U); (2) major elements, including cal- vention of 26 February 1987, States Parties have cium (Ca), K, sodium (Na), and magnesium (Mg); additionally agreed to provide available assistance trace elements, including aluminum (Al), barium to countries responding to a radiological incident. (Ba), chromium (Cr), iron (Fe), manganese (Mn), In the frame of the two Conventions, the rubidium (Rb), Sr, and zinc (Zn), as well as ultra- IAEA is required to maintain a list of national trace elements silver (Ag), arsenic (As), Cs, cad- points of contact who would receive notifica- mium (Cd), cobalt (Co), europium (Eu), mercury tions and co-ordinate implementation activities. (Hg), lanthanum (La), Pb, Sb, scandium (Sc), sele- To carry out its responsibilities in an effective nium (Se), Th, U, and vanadium (V); and (3) and timely manner, the Agency has established organic pollutants like chlorinated pesticides, her- an Emergency Response Unit. This is a dedi- bicides, PCBs, and petroleum compounds. Meas- cated facility utilizing communication equip- urements of accidentally released radionuclides ment, computers, documents, and databases. in the environment are part of this effort. Moreover, if an event requires action by IAEA, • data on the analytical performance of laborato- well-trained experts are readily available. ries in Member States for self-assessment. The Environmental data collection. The infor- efforts are primarily directed towards the produc- mation collected by the IAEA on radioactive and tion of analytical data acceptable on a global scale. non-radioactive pollutants is analyzed and made Data on biological and environmental reference available to the international community through materials and laboratory intercomparison exercises several publications. using reference materials are also gathered.

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• data on disposal of radioactive wastes in the non-conventional literature on any published world's oceans, with an inventory of radioactive item on environmental and economic aspects of material entering the marine environment. These nuclear and other sources of energy. data are organized in a database which includes Data analysis and distribution. The IAEA information on the radionuclides entering the also performs assessments and analyses of data. oceans as a result of accidents, for example due Examples are the comparative assessment of the to the sinking of nuclear submarines and satellite health and environmental risk from near-surface re-entry. disposal of solid hazardous wastes; the assess- • data on the concentration of tritium, deute- ment of the isotope monitoring of the atmos- rium, and oxygen-18 in composite precipitation pheric greenhouse gases; the application of inte- samples, along with some selected meteorologi- grated approaches to the development, manage- cal data such as monthly mean values of amount ment and use of water resources; the safety of precipitation, type of precipitation, vapour analysis and assessment of nuclear installations pressure and surface air temperature; and facilities using nuclear material and/or ra- • qualitative and quantitative data on changes dioisotopes and/or ionizing radiation; and the in soil organic matter and nutrients, including analysis and assessment of radioactive and non- nitrogen, phosphorus and sulphur, as a result radioactive pollutants in the marine environment. of changes in land management and forest In consideration that the availability of infor- clearing. Measurements of amounts of nitro- mation is an important factor for the decision- gen contained in leached water after the appli- making process as well as for public awareness cation of chemical fertilizers are undertaken. In of environmental issues, a large spectrum of addition, erosion losses are being measured publications is issued by the Agency, ranging within catchment basins. from scientific and technical journals to press • data on greenhouse gases, flows of energy and releases, technical documents, data books, and materials of the various links of different energy reports. A number of safety standards, guides, chains, including fossil, nuclear, and renewable recommendations, procedures, and technical re- energies; ports are published annually. Reference materials • data on the isotopic composition variations of and intercomparison of analytical data are publish- atmospheric CO2, CH4, and CO in time and ed in Analytical Quality Control Service (AQCS) space, in support of studies on global climatic catalogues and reports. Certain information prod- changes, and on the variation of isotopic compo- ucts and databases, such as INIS or the Global sition in lacustrine deposits, speleotherms, tree Network Isotopes in Precipitation, now are also rings etc., to identify past climatic fluctuations available on CD ROM and over the IAEA's In- and their causes; ternet-based electronic information services. • data and other relevant information on radio- active in Member States, particularly in relation to waste disposal plans An ongoing response and programmes, projected and accumulated waste volumes, waste in storage and national and The global dimensions of environmental regulatory policies; problems increasingly demand a concerted, • data on nuclear power reactors in operation, committed, and co-ordinated international res- under construction or in the design phase around ponse. The world's rising population, particu- the world, and data on research reactors; larly in developing countries, will place even • data on the safety of nuclear power plants greater strains on the capacities of cities and collected from IAEA Member States through countries to meet the social and economic needs missions of expert teams. They include the As- of citizens. Greater calls for action are likely, sessment of Safety Significant Events Teams, requiring decisions that are factually based, en- Operational Safety Review Teams, Incident Re- vironmentally responsive, and economically porting System for Nuclear Power Plants, Interna- sound. tional Nuclear Events Scale, Engineering Safety Through various avenues, the IAEA has Review Services, International Review of Radia- been working closely with its international part- tion Safety, and Transport Assessment Reviews. ners to support decision-making processes, and Likewise information on radiation protection to contribute toward global efforts to effectively and waste management infrastructures is collected monitor and assess the extent of environmental through Radiation Protection Assessment Teams changes. The work promises to take on added and Waste Management Assessment Programmes. importance in years ahead, in our ongoing re- Finally, the International Nuclear Informa- sponse to understanding and meeting the diffi- tion System (IMS) collects bibliographical ref- cult challenges of an environmentally sound erences to published literature and full texts of development. O

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