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The ENIAC Forecasts THE ENIAC NCEP–NCAR reanalyses help show that four historic forecasts made in 1950 with a pioneering electronic FORECASTS computer all had some predictive skill and, with a A Re-creation minor modification, might have been still better. BY PETER LYNCH he first weather forecasts executed on an auto- However, they were not verified objectively. In this matic computer were described in a landmark study, we recreate the four forecasts using data avail- T paper by Charney et al. (1950, hereafter CFvN). able through the National Centers for Environmental They used the Electronic Numerical Integrator and Prediction–National Center for Atmospheric Research Computer (ENIAC), which was the most powerful (NCEP–NCAR) 50-year reanalysis project. A com- computer available for the project, albeit primitive parison of the original and reconstructed forecasts by modern standards. The results were sufficiently shows them to be in good agreement. Quantitative encouraging that numerical weather prediction be- verification of the forecasts yields surprising results: came an operational reality within about five years. On the basis of root-mean-square errors, persistence CFvN subjectively compared the forecasts to analy- beats the forecast in three of the four cases. The mean ses and drew general conclusions about their quality. error, or bias, is smaller for persistence in all four cases. However, when S1 scores (Teweles and Wobus 1954) are compared, all four forecasts show skill, and three FIG. 1. Visitors and some participants in the 1950 ENIAC are substantially better than persistence. computations. (left to right) Harry Wexler, John von Neumann, M. H. Frankel, Jerome Namias, John Freeman, Ragnar Fjørtoft, Francis Reichelderfer, and Jule Charney. (Provided PREPARING THE GROUND. John von by MIT Museum.) Neumann was one of the leading mathematicians of AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY JANUARY 2008 | 45 the twentieth century. He made important contribu- impossibility of accurately calculating the divergence tions in several areas: mathematical logic, functional from the observations. The key paper, “On a physical analysis, abstract algebra, quantum physics, game basis for numerical prediction of large-scale motions theory, and the development and application of in the atmosphere” (Charney 1949), addresses some computers. In the mid-1930s von Neumann became crucially important issues. In this paper, Charney interested in turbulent fluid flows. He saw that prog- considered the means of dealing with high-frequency ress in hydrodynamics would be greatly accelerated if noise, proposing a hierarchy of filtered models. In his a means for solving complex equations numerically baroclinic instability study, Charney had derived a were available. It was clear that very fast automatic mathematically tractable equation for the unstable computing machinery was required. According to waves “by eliminating from consideration at the Thompson (1983), von Neumann regarded weather outset the meteorologically unimportant acoustic prediction by numerical means as “the most complex, and shearing-gravitational oscillations” (Charney interactive, and highly nonlinear problem that had 1947). He realized that a general filtering principle ever been conceived of—one that would challenge the was desirable. Such a system would have dramatic capabilities of the fastest computing devices for many consequences for numerical integration. The time years.” Indeed, weather forecasting has remained a step dictated by the CFL criterion varies inversely grand challenge for computing ever since. with the speed of the fastest solution—fast gravity In May 1946, a proposal to establish the Meteorology waves imply a very short time step, and the removal Project at the Institute for Advanced Study (IAS) in of these waves leads to a far less stringent limitation, Princeton, New Jersey, was successful in attracting funds allowing a much larger time step to be used. from the U.S. Navy’s Office of Research and Inventions An account of the filtered system was published [the proposal is reprinted in Thompson (1983)]. A in the paper “On the scale of atmospheric motions” conference on meteorology was arranged at IAS the (Charney 1948); this paper was to have a profound following August, and many of the leaders of the field impact on the subsequent development of dynamic attended. At the time, Jule Charney was visiting Rossby, meteorology. Charney analyzed the primitive equa- who arranged for him to participate in the conference. tions using the technique of scale analysis. He was Perhaps the most significant consequence of this con- able to simplify the system in such a way that the ference was the opportunity for von Neumann to meet gravity wave solutions were completely eliminated. Charney. Von Neumann later persuaded Charney to The resulting equations are known as the quasi- lead the Meteorology Project, the primary goal of which geostrophic equations. The system boils down to a was to investigate weather prediction by numerical single prognostic equation for the quasigeostrophic means. The project ran from 1948 to 1956. potential vorticity. All that is required by way of The initial plan was to integrate the primitive initial data to solve this equation is a knowledge of equations of the atmosphere, but the existence of the three-dimensional pressure field (and appropriate high-speed gravity wave solutions meant that the boundary conditions). volume of computation would exceed the capabilities In the special case of horizontal flow with con- of the available computers. The limitation, known stant static stability, the vertical variation can be as the Courant–Friedrichs–Lewy (CFL) criterion, separated out and the quasigeostrophic potential restricts the maximum time step permitted for vorticity equation reduces to the nondivergent baro- stable numerical integrations (Courant et al. 1928). tropic vorticity equation [BVE; see appendix A, (A1)]. There was also a more fundamental difficulty: the This equation represents the conservation of absolute vorticity, the sum of the vorticity of the flow, and the vorticity resulting from the Earth’s spin. The baro- AFFILIATIONS: LYNCH—University College Dublin, Dublin, Ireland tropic equation had, of course, been used by Rossby CORRESPONDING AUTHOR: Peter Lynch, UCD Meteorology & Climate Centre, School of Mathematical Sciences, University in his analytical study of atmospheric waves (Rossby College Dublin, Belfield, Dublin 4, Ireland 1939), but the scientific view was that it was incapable E-mail: [email protected] of producing a quantitatively accurate prediction of atmospheric flow. We will describe the pioneering The abstract for this article can be found in this issue, following the table of contents. achievement of the group that carried out the first DOI:10.1175/BAMS-89-1-45 numerical integration of this simple equation, and will present the results of repeating the forecasts In final form 4 July 2007 ©2008 American Meteorological Society using initial data derived from the NCEP–NCAR 50-year reanalysis. 46 | JANUARY 2008 INTO ACTION. The original integrations, which required to solve the BVE were investigated. It tran- were the first computer weather forecasts ever made, spires that, to determine the motion, it is necessary are described in the much-cited paper of CFvN. This and sufficient to specify the height on the whole paper gives a complete account of the computational boundary and the vorticity over that part where the algorithm and discusses four forecast cases, all from flow is inward. initial data in 1949. The paper caused quite a stir when Initial data for the forecasts were taken from the it appeared. A close study of it is recommended to manual 500-hPa analysis of the U.S. Weather Bureau, readers wishing to have a deeper understanding of this discretized to a grid of 19 × 16 points (Fig. 2). The pioneering work, because we must omit many details. grid interval was 736 km at the North Pole (494 km The authors outlined their reasons for starting at 20°N), corresponding to 8° longitude at 45°N. with the barotropic equation as follows: the large- Centered spatial finite differences and a leapfrog scale motions of the atmosphere are predominantly time scheme were used. The boundary heights were barotropic; the simple model could serve as a valuable held constant, at their initial values, throughout each pilot study for more complex integrations; and, if the 24-h integration. The BVE gives an expression for the results proved to be sufficiently accurate, barotropic rate of change of the Laplacian of geopotential height forecasts could be utilized in an operational context. in terms of the advection (the Jacobian term). Once In fact, few if any people anticipated the enormous this quantity is calculated, the tendency of the height practical value of this simple model and the leading field is obtained by solving a Poisson equation with role it was to play in operational prediction for many homogeneous boundary conditions. The height may years to come (Platzman 1979). then be advanced to the next time level. This cycle The ENIAC, which had been completed in 1945, may be repeated as often as required. was the first multipurpose electronic digital computer As the construction of von Neumann’s computer ever built. It was installed at the U.S. Army’s Ballistics at IAS was delayed, permission was obtained to use Research Laboratories at Aberdeen, Maryland. ENIAC. This was arranged through the offices of ENIAC was gigantic, weighing 30 tons, with 18,000 Francis Reichelderfer, Chief of the Weather Bureau. thermionic valves, massive banks of switches, and The story of the mission to Aberdeen was recounted large plug boards with tangled skeins of connecting by George Platzman (1979) in his Victor P. Starr wires, filling a large room and consuming some Memorial Lecture. The venture began on 5 March 140 kW of power. Program commands were specified 1950 when “an eager band of five meteorologists by setting the positions of a multi- tude of 10-pole rotary switches on large arrays called function tables, and input and output were generated by means of punch cards.
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