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June 1984 the Office of Foreign Disaster Assistance of the United GLOBAL DISASTER EARLY WARNING SYSTE1 POLICY PLANNING June 1984 Prepared for: The Office of Foreign Disaster Assistance of the United States Agency for International Development Contract No. PDC-1406-1-02-2084-00 Prepared by: Matthew R. Willard Carolyn R. Teich Floyd I. Roberson Donald K. Dement RESOURCES DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATES, INC. P.O. BOX 407 DIAMOND SPRINGS, CALIFORNIA 95619 (916)-622-8841 TABLE OF CONTENTS Page 1.0 EXECUTIVE SUMMAH. .. .. .. .*. e o e . * e 1 1.1 Disaster Management and Information: A Framework For Understanding .. .. * *s ee 2 1.1 •IEarly Warning e. .... ..... * 2 1.1.2 Emergency Decision-Making . .... 3 1.1.3 Country Preparedness .e. .... 4 1.1.4 Emergency Relief. .s. e .. ... .. 5 1.1.5 Rehabilitation .a. .. .. *e e * 5 1.2 Characteristics of Natural Disasters and Data Requirements .. * . .. * 5 1.2.1 Communications Requirements for Disaster Early Warning .. ... 7 1.2.2 Applicability of Satellite Telecommunications to Disaster Managements .. .. ... 8 1.2.3 Institutional Requirements for the Use of Satellite Technolo in Developing Countries 10 1.3 Satellite (and Associated) Technology Applicable to Disaster Early Warning . ... o . 11 1.3.1 Geostationary Meteorological Satellites . 11 1.3.2 Earth Resource Sensing Satellites . .. .. 12 1.3.3 Overview of Communications Satellites Technology . .. .. .... .... 14 1.4 Computer Technology for Geographic Information systems 0. ....... .. .. .. ...00 0 .. 17 1.5 Satellite Applications to Disaster Warning and Management . 19 TABLE OF CONTENTS (Continued) Page 1.6 Challenges to an Operational Satellite-based EarlWarning Sstem for Natural Disasters* .a . 20 1.6.1 Senarios for U.S. Initiatives Development of a Global Early Warning System. .a. 20 1.6.2 Domestic Policy Issues .o. .. .. 22 1.6.2.1 Interagency Responsibility . 22 1.6.2.2 Private vs. Public Sector Interests. 23 1.6.2.3 Civil/Military Interface ...... 24 1.6.2.4 Domestic Policy vs. Foreign Policy . 25 1.6.3 International Policy Issues .'. .. 25 1.6.3.1 Transborder Data Flow .o. 26 1.6.3.2 Training and Technology Transfer . 26 1.6.3.3 Dependence arnd Accountability* .o. 27 1.6.3.4 System Structure/Integration . .. 28 1.6.4 Summary . .............. 28 1.7 A Conference on Satellite Applications to Early Warning of Natural Disasters. .o. .. .. .. 30 1.7.1 Illustrative Bu .... .... • 35 1.7.2 Steps to Holding the Conference . .. 37 1.7.3 Summary ... .. .... ....... 38 2.0 GLOBAL DISASTER EARLY WARNING SYSTEI POLICY PLANNING 40 2.1 Disaster Management and Information: A Framework for Understanding .. .. .. .. .. .. o • • 41 2.1.1 Early Warning .. .. .. .. .. .. 42 2.1.2 Emergency Decision Making . .. o 43 2.1.3 Country Preparedness .o.......... 44 ii TABLE OF CONTENTS (Continued) Page 2.1.4 Emergency Relief. ............. 45 2.1.5 Rehabilitation .............. 45 2.2 Characteristics of Natural Disasters and Data Requirements. .. .. .. .. .. 45 2.2.1 Location. .. .. .. .. 46 2.2.2 Impact Area .. .. .. ..... * 46 2.2.3 Disaster Development Time .s.. .. .. 47 2.2.4 Frequency of Occurrence .. .. .. .. 51 2.2.5 Number of People Affected .. .. .. ... 51 2.2.6 Severity .. .. .. .. .. .. 51 2.2.7 Visible Indicators* .o. .. .. .. 52 2.2.8 Disaster Characteristics and Data Requirements. Summar . 53 2.3 Communications Requirements for Disaster Early Warning . .. .. .. .. 54 2.3.1 Voice . .. .. 55 2.3.2 Low-speed Data. .e. o .. .. .. 55 2.3.3 Television. .. .. .. .. 57 2.3.4 Communication Needs in Disaster Management. 58 2.3.4.1 The Need for Television . 58 2.3.4.2 The Need for Voice .e. .. 59 2.3.4.3 The Need for Data .. .. 60 2.3.4.4 Communications Requirements, Summary 62 2.3.5 Applicability of Satellite Telecommunications to Disaster Management .o. .. .. 62 2.4 Institutional Requirements for the Use of Satellite Technology in Developing Countries. .. 65 2.5 Summary .. ...... .. .... ..... 66 ii0 TABLE OF CONTENTS (Continued) Page 3.0 SATELLITE (AND ASSOCIATED) TECHNOLOGY APPLICABLE TO DISASTER EARLY WARNING .................... 69 3.1 Geostationary Meteorological Satellites .. .. 69 3.1.1 The US Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) Systen . 69 3.1.2 European Meteorological Satellite Program • 72 3.1.3 Japanese Geostationary Meteorological Satellite (GMS) . .. .. ... 73 3.1.4 Indian National Satellite System (INSAT).. 73 3.1.5 Soviet Union's Geostationary Operational Meteorological Satellites (GOMS). - o . 74 3.2 Polar-Orbiting Sateilites . .. .. 74 3.2.1 US NOAA/Advanced TIROS-N Satellite System o 74 3.2.2 USSR Meteor-2 Polar-Orbiting Satellite. 76 3.3 Earth Resource Sensing Satellites . .. .. 84 3.3.1 United States ............... 87 3.3.2 France. ................. 89 3.3.3 Japan ................... 91 3.3.4 Soviet Union ................ 92 3.3.5 India .. .. .. .. .. 93 3.3.6 Brazil. .. .. .. .. .. .. 94 3.3.7 Netherlands . .. .. .. 94 3.3.8 Canada... .. .. .. .. .. .. .. 95 3.3.9 People's Republic of China. 95 3.3.10 Germany . .......... 96 3.3.1i European Space Agency ..... ..... 96 iv TABLE OF CONTENTS (Cotinued) Page 3.4 Overview of Communications Satellite Technology. .. e . 97 3.4.1 Currently-Operating Communications Satellites. .. .. ... 97 3.4.2 Fixed-Service Satellites . .. 98 3.4.3 Foreign Fixed-Service Satellites. 006" " 101 3.4.4 U.S. Military Mobile Satellite Communications 101 3.4.5 Broadcast Satellites. .. .. .. 102 3.4.6 Foreign Broadcast Satellites . .. 106 3.5 Satellites Communications for Disaster Situations 107 3.5.1 Today's Direct Broadcast Satellites .. 107 3.5.2 Land Mobile Satellite Communications. ... 111 3.6 Computer Technology for Geographic Information Systems e.. ...... ...... .......* o e 113 3.6.1 Processors. .0. .. .. 115 3.6.2 Information Storage Technology .a. 116 3.6.3 Data Communications .. .......... 117 3.6.4 Software/Data Management .. .. o o 119 4.0 APPLICATIONS OF SATELLITE TECHNOLOGY TO DISASTER WARNING 123 4.1 Tropical Cyclone and Storm Surge Warnings .a. 123 4.2 Hurricane Warning Programe .o. 125 4.3 Tsunamis. ... ... .. .. ..... • 125 4.3.1 Tsunami Warning System* .e. 127 4.4 Rainfall Estimation/Forecasting and Flood Monitoring. .. .. o o 130 4.5 Earthquake Detection and Monitoring .. 131 V TABLE OF CONTENTS (Continued) Page 4.6 Early Warning Crop Assessment .......... 132 4.6.1 FAO Global Information and Early Warning System on Food and Agriculture. ..... 133 4.6.2 USAID Agroclimatic Analysis and Development of Climate/Crop Yield Models' • 134 4.6.3 Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA .... 135 4.6.4 Climate Impact Assessment .. .. .. .. 137 4.6.5 Landsat Data and Agricultural Early Warning 138 4.7 Desertification .. 139 4.8 Satellite Telecommunications. .9. 140 4.8.1 Communications Technology Satellite, CTS. 140 4.8.2 ApplLca&tions Technology Satellites, ATS • . 142 4.9 Other Applications* .. * e a 145 4.9.1 Monitoring Volcanic Activity and High Winds 145 4.9.2 Sea State Measurements* .w. e 148 4.1• 0ummdry . .. ........... 148 5.0 CHALLENGES TO AN OPERATIONAL SATELLITE EARLY WARNING SY S T E Kf . e. e e•. • • 1 5 1 5.1 Development of Global Early Warning Systems . 151 5.2 Domestic Policy Issues* .9. 153 5.2.1 Interagency Funding and Responsibility. 154 5.2.2 Private vs. Public Secton Interests . .. 155 5.2.3 Military vs. Civil Government . 157 5.2.4 Domestic Policy vs. Foreign Policy. 157 vi TABLE OF CONTENTS (Contents) Page 5.3 International Issues. 158 5.3.1 Transborder Data Flow ........... 159 5.3.2 Training and Technology Transfer. ..... 160 5.3.3 Dependence and Accountability . ..... 160 5.3.4 System Structure/Integration. ...... 162 5.4 Summary . e . e e a a e e e e . e e e . a 162 6.0 A CONFERENCE ON SATELLITE APPLICATIONS TO EARLY WARNING OF ATURAL DISASTERS ................... 167 6.1 Interagency Program Committee ......... • 168 6.2 Tentative Conference Ae . .... • 171 6.3 Illustrative Budget ....... ..... 173 6.4 Steps to Holding the Conference . .. • • • 175 APfENDIXt PROGRAMS RELATED TO DISASTER EARLY WARNING . 177 vii 1.0 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY At the Second United Nations Conference on the Exploration and Peaceful Uses of Outer Space, (UNISPACE 82), held in Vienna, Austria in August 1982, the United States delegation presented several 'initiatives', to be pursued with other interested governments in an effort to further apply space technology to problems on Earth. One such initiative was proposed by the United States Office of Foreign Disaster Assistance, in the U.S. Agency for International Development. The description of the initiative, as it appeared in the paper presented by the U.S. Delegation is 1 as follows: In order that the use of Outer Space Technologies in assessing and reacting to natural disasters of varying natures and dimensions may be examined, the United States proposes to sponsor a five-day conference by the U.S. Agency for International Development, Office of Foreign Disaster Assistance in Washington, D.C., in the spring of 1984. This conference would address problems In areas such as global drought assessment, agroclimate, famine early warning, tsunami and severe storm early warning, and considers how satellite based data and communication systems can be of assistance in these areas. Current operational systems, Systems under development and future applicable technologies would be examined. Such a conference would make more generally available information on those technologies and their applications currently existing and suitable for operational implementation worldwide. The conference would help to focus internatiunal consideration of this important topic and assist in definition of future systems reuirements. Opportunity would be given for participants, especially from developing countries, to examine new advance technologies available to them. Participants at the expert level would discuss concrete mechanisms, including relatively sophisticated environmental monitoring systems which can mitigate the impact of natural disasters and save lives through preparation and early warning using current and future satellite-based early warning systems and data collection platforms. As a precursor to the conference, the Office of Foreign Disaster Assistance initiated the current study to lay the planning groundwork for the conference.
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