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2020 10-Year System Outlook Nova Scotia Utility and Review Board IN THE MATTER OF The Public Utilities Act, R.S.N.S. 1989, c.380, as amended 2020 10-Year System Outlook NS Power June 30, 2020 NON-CONFIDENTIAL 2020 10-Year System Outlook NON-CONFIDENTIAL 1 TABLE OF CONTENTS 2 3 1.0 INTRODUCTION ............................................................................................................... 5 4 2.0 LOAD FORECAST ............................................................................................................. 7 5 3.0 GENERATION RESOURCES .......................................................................................... 11 6 3.1 Existing Generation Resources ................................................................................................... 11 7 3.1.1 Maximum Unit Capacity Rating Adjustments .................................................................... 13 8 3.1.2 Mersey Hydro ..................................................................................................................... 14 9 3.1.3 Wreck Cove Hydro ............................................................................................................. 14 10 3.2 Changes in Capacity ................................................................................................................... 15 11 3.2.1 Tusket Combustion Turbine ................................................................................................ 15 12 3.2.2 Victoria Junction Combustion Turbine ............................................................................... 16 13 3.2.3 Annapolis Tidal ................................................................................................................... 16 14 3.3 Unit Utilization & Investment Strategy ...................................................................................... 17 15 3.3.1 Evolution of the Energy Mix in Nova Scotia ...................................................................... 17 16 3.3.2 Projections of Unit Utilization ............................................................................................ 19 17 3.3.3 Steam Fleet Retirement Outlook ......................................................................................... 20 18 4.0 NEW SUPPLY SIDE FACILITIES .................................................................................. 21 19 5.0 QUEUED SYSTEM IMPACT STUDIES ......................................................................... 22 20 5.1 OATT Transmission Service Queue ........................................................................................... 23 21 6.0 ENVIRONMENTAL AND EMISSIONS REGULATORY REQUIREMENTS ............. 25 22 6.1 Renewable Electricity Requirements .......................................................................................... 25 23 6.2 Environmental Regulatory Requirements ................................................................................... 28 24 6.3 Upcoming Policy Changes .......................................................................................................... 32 25 7.0 RESOURCE ADEQUACY ............................................................................................... 33 26 7.1 Operating Reserve Criteria.......................................................................................................... 33 27 7.2 Planning Reserve Criteria ........................................................................................................... 34 28 7.3 Capacity Contribution of Renewable Resources in Nova Scotia ................................................ 36 29 7.3.1 Energy Resource Interconnection Service Connected Resources ....................................... 37 30 7.4 Load and Resources Review ....................................................................................................... 38 31 8.0 TRANSMISSION PLANNING ........................................................................................ 41 DATE FILED: June 30, 2020 Page 2 of 58 2020 10-Year System Outlook NON-CONFIDENTIAL 32 8.1 System Description ..................................................................................................................... 41 33 8.2 Transmission Design Criteria ...................................................................................................... 42 34 8.2.1 Bulk Power System (BPS) .................................................................................................. 43 35 8.2.2 Bulk Electric System (BES) ................................................................................................ 43 36 8.2.3 Special Protection Systems (SPS) ....................................................................................... 44 37 8.2.4 NPCC A-10 Standard Update ............................................................................................. 44 38 8.3 Transmission Life Extension ...................................................................................................... 46 39 8.4 Transmission Project Approval ................................................................................................... 46 40 8.5 New Large load Customer Interconnection Requests ................................................................. 47 41 8.6 Wind Integration Stability Study - PSC ...................................................................................... 48 42 9.0 TRANSMISSION DEVELOPMENT 2020 to 2030 ......................................................... 51 43 9.1 Impact of Proposed Load Facilities ............................................................................................ 51 44 9.2 129H-Kearney Lake Relocation .................................................................................................. 52 45 9.3 Transmission Development Plans ............................................................................................... 52 46 9.4 Western Valley Transmission System – Phase II Study ............................................................. 55 47 10.0 PANDEMIC RESPONSE .................................................................................................. 56 48 11.0 CONCLUSION .................................................................................................................. 57 49 DATE FILED: June 30, 2020 Page 3 of 58 2020 10-Year System Outlook NON-CONFIDENTIAL 1 TABLE OF FIGURES 2 3 Figure 1: Net System Requirement with Future DSM Program Effects (actuals are not weather adjusted) 8 4 Figure 2: Coincident Peak Demand with Future DSM Program Effects ...................................................... 9 5 Figure 3: 2020 Firm Generating Capability for NS Power and IPPs .......................................................... 12 6 Figure 4: Firm Capacity Changes & DSM .................................................................................................. 15 7 Figure 5: 2005, 2019 Actual, 2021 Forecast Energy Mix ........................................................................... 18 8 Figure 6: Peak System Demand Trend ....................................................................................................... 19 9 Figure 7: Combined Transmission & Distribution Advanced Stage Interconnection Queue as of June 17, 10 2020 ............................................................................................................................................................ 22 11 Figure 8: Requests in the OATT Transmission Queue ............................................................................... 23 12 Figure 9: RES Compliance Forecast ........................................................................................................... 27 13 Figure 10: Multi-year Greenhouse Gas Emission Limits ........................................................................... 28 14 Figure 11: Greenhouse Gas Free Allowances 2019-2022........................................................................... 29 15 Figure 12: Emissions (SO2, NOx, Hg) ....................................................................................................... 31 16 Figure 13: NS Power 10 Year Load and Resources Outlook ...................................................................... 40 17 Figure 14: NS Power Major Facilities in Service 2020 .............................................................................. 41 18 DATE FILED: June 30, 2020 Page 4 of 58 2020 10-Year System Outlook NON-CONFIDENTIAL 1 1.0 INTRODUCTION 2 3 In accordance with the 3.4.2.11 Market Rule requirements, this Report provides the 10- 4 Year System Outlook on behalf of the Nova Scotia Power System Operator (NSPSO) for 5 2020. 6 7 The 2020 10-Year System Outlook Report contains the following information: 8 9 • A summary of the Nova Scotia Power Incorporated (NS Power, Company) load 10 forecast and update on the Demand Side Management (DSM) forecast in Section 11 2. 12 13 • A summary of generation expansion anticipated for facilities owned by NS Power 14 and others in Sections 3-5. NS Power’s generation planning for existing Facilities, 15 including retirements as well as investments in upgrades, refurbishment or life 16 extension and new Generating Facilities committed in accordance with previously 17 approved NSPSO system plans. 18 19 • A summary of environmental and emissions regulatory requirements, as well as 20 forecast compliance in Section 6. This Section also includes projections of the 21 level of renewable energy available.
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