Kittery Area Comprehensive Transportation System Long Range Transportation Plan 2019
As approved by the KACTS Policy Committee on May 15, 2019
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KACTS 2019 Long Range Transportation Plan Table of Contents
1. Introduction……………………………………………………………….. ……... 1
2. Vision for 2045 and Plan Goals…………………………………………...... 6
3. Existing Conditions…………..…………………………………………………... 28
4. Planning for Future Conditions and Growth………….……………………….... 63
5. Implementation: Goals and Actions……………………………………... ……... 71
Vision and Purpose
The KACTS Long Range Transportation Plan is a reference document designed to guide the region’s long-range decision making in regards to its transportation network. It involves various transportation trends, priorities and projects and reflects a greater need to plan for the region’s future. The plan is a blueprint that identifies and describes goals, objectives and options for meeting current and future needs, thereby ensuring quality of life for all residents of the region.
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1. Introduction
The Kittery Area Comprehensive Transportation System (KACTS) is the federally designated Metropolitan Planning Organization (MPO) covering the Kittery, Maine urban area and Maine portions of the Dover-Rochester, New Hampshire urban area since 1982. MPOs are required by federal law to be established in urbanized regions with 50,000 or more people. In its role as an MPO, KACTS oversees transportation planning and initiatives in the towns of Berwick, Eliot, Kittery, South Berwick and York, Maine. Taking a regional approach, KACTS works to address issues in the areas of transit, traffic incident management, and transportation demand management. This includes working with our Maine counterparts, the Portland Area Comprehensive Transportation System, Androscoggin Transportation Resource Center, and the Bangor Area Comprehensive Transportation system. Similarly, KACTS works with its New Hampshire equivalents across the state line, the Strafford MPO and Rockingham MPO.
KACTS is primarily funded through the Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) Surface Transportation Program, but it also receives funds from the Federal Transit Administration (FTA) and the Maine Department of Transportation (MaineDOT) to oversee projects in the region. Each of these agencies promote transportation systems that are safe, accessible, multi-modal and comprehensive, with additional requirements changing upon the reauthorization of federal funding bills. Previously, the funding authorization came from a bill called Moving Ahead for Progress in the 21st Century, or MAP-21. Upon its expiration in 2015, Congress authorized MAP-21’s successor, Fixing America’s Surface Transportation Act, or FAST Act. Under the FAST Act, MPOs are required to outline Performance Measures to track their progress over time, as well as evaluate their assets and outline capital improvements and investments.
The KACTS region changes with each decennial census. Changes in population and road networks affect the urban area, and consequently the MPO area. Most recently, the 2010 census added York to the Kittery urban area, incorporating it into the KACTS region. Similarly, the 2000 census divided the Dover-Rochester-Portsmouth, New Hampshire urban area into two separate urban areas: Dover-Rochester and Portsmouth, both of which bleed into the KACTS geographic area.
The KACTS Region
Located at the tip of Southern Maine, the region boasts coastal and rural amenities while simultaneously being in proximity to Boston and Haverhill, Massachusetts, Portland, Maine and Portsmouth, New Hampshire. Harsh New England winter weather conditions and high volumes of traffic during summer months strain the major road networks in the KACTS region. Mainly, Interstate 95, U.S. Route 1, and several state highways such as Route 236 and Route 91 which span from Berwick to York. According to the 2017 American Community Survey, the KACTS region has
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a population of 47,071 and covers 161.8 square miles of land. The largest town in the region is York, with a population of 13,750 and the smallest, Eliot, has a population of 6,412. South Berwick, Berwick, and Kittery each have similar populations at 7,286, 7,919, and 9,687, respectively.
Each community has its own unique characteristics. Most notably, York and Kittery have several commercial areas, including York Village along Route 1A, the York and Kittery Outlets on Route 1, and Kittery Foreside, which harbors the Portsmouth Naval Shipyard, one of the largest employers in the region. Other clusters of residential developments also exist in the south central part of Berwick, Cape Neddick in York Beach, and along Route 103 in Eliot and Kittery. Primary road networks that experience large traffic flows include Route 236 in
Eliot, Route 9 in Berwick, and Route 1.
Source: Esri
Population Trends by Town
16000
14000
12000
10000
8000
6000
4000
2000
0 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2014 2015 2016 2017 Berwick Eliot Kittery South Berwick York Source: American Community Survey
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As is the trend across the country, much of the region’s population is comprised of “baby boomers”, or those born between roughly 1954 and 1964. Maine also has the 7th highest percentage of its population over the age of 65, with an estimated 14.4% of the state’s population age 65 or older. In the KACTS region, about 20% of the population is between age 55 and 59, as illustrated in the age pyramid on the right side of this page. With much of the population approaching retirement age, there are important considerations and planning strategies that must be incorporated into the transportation system. Increasing the walkability of our transportation system and transit opportunities will be crucial in preparing for this significant shift in demographics. Source: Esri, 2017 KACTS Administration
KACTS operates based on its work plan, or Unified Planning Work Program (UPWP). The UPWP outlines costs and how planning funds will be used for a two-year period. Similarly, the KACTS Transportation Improvement Program (TIP) outlines a list of upcoming projects for a period of four years. Each project is selected by the KACTS Policy Committee and appropriated based on town matching and MaineDOT funds. The Policy Committee has 2 voting members each for the towns of Kittery and York, and 1 voting member each for Eliot, South Berwick, Berwick, MaineDOT, Southern Maine Planning and Development Commission (SMPDC), the Maine Turnpike Authority (MTA) and a public transportation representative. In the case of KACTS, the public transportation representative is the York County Community Action Corporation. The committee also has the following non-voting members: Strafford Regional Planning Commission, Rockingham Planning Commission, New Hampshire Department of Transportation, Federal Highway Administration, and Federal Transit Administration.
Under the provisions of 23 U.S. Code § 134 (23 CFR Part 450.306), MPOs are required to, in cooperation with State and regional planning partners: “develop long-range transportation plans and TIPs through a performance-driven, outcome-based approach to planning for metropolitan areas of the state”. This performance-based approach is required to be in support of the national performance goals described in 23 USC § 150(b):
1. Safety – To achieve a significant reduction in traffic fatalities and serious injuries on all public roads.
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2. Infrastructure Condition – To maintain the highway infrastructure asset system in a state of good repair 3. Congestion Reduction – To achieve a significant reduction in congestion on the National Highway System 4. System Reliability – To improve the efficiency of the surface transportation system 5. Freight Movement and Economic Vitality – To improve the national freight network, strengthen the ability of rural communities to access national and international trade markets, and support regional economic development 6. Environmental Sustainability – To enhance the performance of the transportation system while protecting and enhancing the natural environment 7. Reduced Project Delivery Delays – To reduce project costs, promote jobs and the economy, and expedite the movement of people and goods by accelerating project completion through eliminating delays in the project development and delivery process, including reducing regulatory burdens and improving agencies’ work practices.
KACTS Planning Area
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KACTS operates to carry out the provisions of governing Federal laws. This allows the KACTS Policy Committee to make decisions at the local level, while collaborating with MaineDOT and the Southern Maine Planning & Development Commission (SMPDC) to provide technical and administrative support. FHWA, FTA and local and state matching revenues fund KACTS, and require the following administrative documents to be published:
The Long Range Transportation Plan
Updated every five years, the Long Range Transportation Plan (LRTP) covers transportation planning, policy and fiscal issues over at least a twenty-year period. All modes of transportation are considered including highways, transit services, airports, shipping and freight facilities, and bicycle and pedestrian networks. Looking at these networks and their relative safety, security and services in the long term is beneficial to KACTS. It allows for planning for network expansion, uniform decision making, climate change and coastal adaptation. KACTS’s last LRTP update was completed in 2014. Since then, the authorization of the FAST Act in December of 2015 has mandated the use of performance measures by MPOs. Using data from a number of sources, KACTS will analyze specific, numerical targets to determine whether performance measures were or are being met for the transportation network.
The Unified Planning Work Program
Covering a two year span, the Unified Planning Work Program (UPWP) is KACTS’s guide for planning funds. It outlines tasks and studies to be carried out by the MPO and their respective funding allocations.
The Transportation Improvement Program
The Transportation Improvement Program (TIP) for the Kittery Urbanized area is a prioritized listing of federally funded transportation projects. Including projects for a four year planning period (most recently 2018-2021), eligible projects are in Berwick, Eliot, Kittery, South Berwick, and York Maine.
The Public Participation Plan
The Public Participation Plan (PPP) is a proactive public participation tool and vital component of the MPO planning process. It is updated regularly and helps ensure everyone, including the region’s low income, minority and Limited English Proficiency populations, are given the opportunity to participate in the MPO process and initiatives. The PPP is required under Title VI and Environmental Justice programs. The most recent update, released in May 2018, contains information on how to reach KACTS, a list of interested parties as well as other information pertaining to how KACTS is operated.
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2. Vision for 2045 and Plan Goals
Goals of the Plan
KACTS believes transportation systems that are safe, accessible, multimodal and sustainable make our communities better. Going forward, this plan will advocate for transportation improvements and planning that emphasize connecting communities, adapting to our world’s changing climate, and creating livable, walkable communities where its citizens can safely live and work.
Performance Based Approach
In order to achieve the goals of this plan, KACTS will follow specific performance measures. These measures set targets for KACTS to reach in various categories and keep the MPO accountable for the performance of its network, projects and resources. Incorporation of performance based planning into the Long Range Transportation Plan was done in conjunction with MaineDOT, and will be continually evaluated moving forward, as required by the FAST Act. Under the FAST Act, KACTS must include in its plan:
• An assessment of capital investment and other strategies to preserve the existing and future transportation system and reduce the vulnerability of the existing transportation infrastructure to natural disasters • A description of the (Federally required) performance measures and performance targets used in assessing the performance of the transportation system • A system evaluation report evaluating the condition and performance of the transportation system with respect to the (Federally required) performance targets including progress achieved by the MPO toward the performance targets
Federal Standards and Targets
As listed in Section 1, the National Goals for the Federal Aid Highway System are:
1. Safety – To achieve a significant reduction in traffic fatalities and serious injuries on all public roads. 2. Infrastructure Condition – To maintain the highway infrastructure asset system in a state of good repair 3. Congestion Reduction – To achieve a significant reduction in congestion on the National Highway System 4. System Reliability – To improve the efficiency of the surface transportation system
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5. Freight Movement and Economic Vitality – To improve the national freight network, strengthen the ability of rural communities to access national and international trade markets, and support regional economic development 6. Environmental Sustainability – To enhance the performance of the transportation system while protecting and enhancing the natural environment 7. Reduced Project Delivery Delays – To reduce project costs, promote jobs and the economy, and expedite the movement of people and goods by accelerating project completion through eliminating delays in the project development and delivery process, including reducing regulatory burdens and improving agencies’ work practices.
To meet these goals, national performance measures are also utilized to assess progress the MPO has made. FHWA and FTA have created 21 metrics that each MPO must utilize as part of its transportation planning process. Of these, 17 were developed by FHWA and 4 by FTA. Broadly, they cover the following areas:
• Pavement condition on the Interstate System and on the remainder of the National Highway System (NHS) • Performance on the Interstate System and the remainder of the NHS • Bridge Condition on the NHS • Fatalities and serious injuries as both a number and rate per vehicle mile traveled on all public roads • Traffic congestion • On-road mobile source emissions • Freight movement on the Interstate System • Transit Asset Management • Transit Safety
KACTS Targets and Performance Measures
MaineDOT has established performance measures for urbanized areas in coordination with each of the state’s four MPOs. As part of this plan, KACTS will adopt Roadway Safety, Bridge, and Pavement performance measures set by MaineDOT and Transit Asset Management performance measures that were developed by the MPO. Each measure is outlined below:
Transit Asset Management
The KACTS Transit Asset Management (TAM) performance measures are divided into three parts: Rolling Stock, Equipment and Facilities. For the Rolling Stock and Equipment measures, KACTS used FTA vehicle classifications and their useful life benchmarks (ULB), copied below:
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Classification Vehicle or Equipment Type Useful Life (years) Class 1 Minivan, van, sedan 4 Class 2 Light-duty small bus, minibus, 5 small body-on-chassis, cutaways Class 3 Medium-duty transit bus < 30’, 7 trolley-like bus Class 4 Medium Size Heavy duty 10 transit bus 30’ Class 5 Heavy duty transit bus 35’ ; 12 Commuter Coach Class 6 Ferry Boats 40
For Facilities in the region, targets were developed by applying the Transit Economic Requirements Model (TERM) scale. The TERM scale is a 5-point scale ranging from poor condition (1.0) to excellent condition (5.0).
Using all of these definitions, KACTS came up with the following Performance Measures:
Asset Category* Performance Asset Class Baseline Target Measure Beyond Useful Life Beyond Useful Life Rolling Stock Age - % of revenue Class 1 68.5% 63.0% vehicles within a Class 2 31.8% 28.0% particular asset class Class 3 75.0% 75.0% that have met or Class 4 50.0% 47.0% exceeded their Useful Class 5 0.0% 0.0% Life Benchmark (ULB) Class 6 0.0% 0.0% Equipment Age - % of non-revenue Automobiles 100% 100% vehicles that have met Service Truck 100% 100% or exceeded their Useful Life Benchmark (ULB) Facilities Condition - % of facilities Support 0% 0% with a condition rating (Main. & below 3.0 on the FTA Admin.) Passenger
Note: Class 1 has two categories (minivans and vans) and separately reported as 60% and 96% consecutively. Note: Class 3, 4 and 5 were combined and reported under Bus for NTD reporting purposes: Baseline: 63.8%; Target: 63.2%
KACTS also set regional targets in conjunction with the Rockingham, New Hampshire MPO, and is adopting the same targets for COAST as have been developed by the Rockingham MPO. These targets, set as a percentage of resources at or over their ULB are highlighted in the table below:
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Roadway Safety
FHWA’s Safety Performance Measures Final Rule supports the Highway Safety Improvement Program (HSIP), as it establishes safety performance measure requirements for the purpose of carrying out HSIP and to assess fatalities and serious injuries on all public roads. The Final Rule establishes five performance measures as the five-year rolling averages to include:
1. Number of Fatalities 2. Rate of Fatalities per 100 million Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT) 3. Number of Serious Injuries 4. Rate of Serious Injuries per 100 VMT 5. Number of Non-motorized Fatalities and Non-motorized serious injuries
Under this rule, MPOs can agree to support State targets or establish their own specific, numeric targets. KACTS, along with the other three Maine MPOs are agreeing to support the State targets and have worked with MaineDOT to develop its own MPO targets. These are reported to MaineDOT and made available to FHWA upon request. The Maine 2018 Safety Performance Targets are shown below:
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KACTS Performance Measure Targets, as part of this rule, are shown below:
2013-2017 (5 YR 2009-2013 (5 YR 2019 Target (5 YR KACTS Total) Total) Annual Average) (5 Yr Totals) Number Rate Number Rate Number Rate All Jurisdictions Fatality 11 0.37 12 0.43 2.20 0.37 11
Serious Inj 103 3.44 115 4.16 20 3.30 98 Townway Fatality Rate=
Serious Inj= BIKE Serious inj 9 5 Fatals 0 0 Total 9 5 Non-Motorist PED Serious inj 3 4 Fatals 1 0 Total 4 4 Grand Total 13 9 13
Year SUM Annual VMT SUM HMVM 2013 573946287 5.739462867 2019 Targets will be largely driven by 2014 584507248 5.845072478 MPO 2017 results and follow state-wide 2015 605644661 6.056446606 2019 Target-setting methodolgy, but may 2016 612950782 6.129507817 be somewhat influenced by 2009-2013 2017 621204454 6.212044537 results. 5 YR AVG 599650686.4 5.996506861 5 YR TOTAL 2998253432 29.98253431
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Fatalities 3 2 1 3 3 3 2 2 1 Serious Injuries 19 29 32 19 19 20 27 15 22 Each target is based on a five year rolling average, with number targets being rounded to the nearest tenth decimal place, and rate targets rounded to the nearest thousandth.
These measures also make some general assumptions:
Economy and fuel prices remain fairly stable at current levels. Multi-agency safety efforts will continue to be refined and focused on primary serious crash trends such as lane departure and pedestrians. Based on recruitment difficulties along with state and local budgetary restraints, law enforcement agencies will continue to experience staffing challenges, reducing the effective crash-reducing impact that their on-road presence has. Impaired driving is a growing concern both due to legalization of marijuana and increased illicit drug use. That growing impairment problem translates to serious crash exposures. Maine’s VMT will continue to increase due to economic factors cited. This increases traffic exposure and in some situations, may decrease the level of service on high volume roads.
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For developing the serious injury measures, increased VMTs and lower 2015/2016 numbers will keep 2017 and 2018 numbers flat for the next two years, resulting in a reduced five year average. For non-motorized fatal and serious injury, recent spikes have driven MaineDOT to develop a focused pedestrian outreach program, launched in May 2017. The annual forecast for 2017/2018 has been placed at 90 (slightly under the current five year average of 91.2) and 88 for 2018. In this scenario, the 2018 five year average would be a 1.3% improvement over the 2016 five-year averages.
Bridge and Pavement Condition
KACTS has adopted the targets developed by MaineDOT. Each of Maine’s 4 MPO’s are evaluated in PM3. KACTS does not meet the state target set for percent of Person Miles Traveled on the non- interstate highway systems deemed reliable. Pavement conditions are evaluated as a percentage of miles that are in a state of good repair (SOGR).
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Source: MaineDOT
In addition to the national, state, and regional targets and performance measures presented above, KACTS is investigating the development of supplemental measures to address specific needs and conditions of the local transportation system and enhance transportation linkages to other regional planning initiatives and priorities. Climate change is a global issue that is already impacting the KACTS region and will likely become much more significant in the future. The Federal Highway Administration (FWHA) identifies climate change and associated extreme weather events as significant and growing risks to the safety, reliability, effectiveness, and sustainability of the Nation’s transportation infrastructure and operations. Further, the FHWA encourages MPOs to consider climate change in Long Range Transportation Plans and notes that preparing for climate change and extreme weather events is critical to protecting the integrity of the transportation system and the sound investment of taxpayer dollars.
The transportation network is inextricably linked to both the drivers of climate change and the resulting effects. The KACTS region is at increasing and critical risk from climate-driven stressors,
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such as extreme temperatures, more intense and frequent precipitation events, sea level rise, and powerful storm surge. Anticipated climate impacts will likely shorten infrastructure lifespans, increase the risk of catastrophic failures, and increase repair and replacement costs, hazards, and disruptions to society.
Planning for climate change requires consideration of two separate, Climate change impacts in the KACTS region yet complementary, topics: mitigation and adaptation. Mitigation include: refers to reducing the drivers of climate change, namely greenhouse • Extreme gasses (GHGs) such as CO2, while adaptation aims to minimize the temperatures impacts of climate change. Integrating climate considerations, • Increased precipitation & including both adaptation and mitigation strategies, into its long range stormwater planning provides an opportunity for KACTS to address local climate- • Sea level rise related vulnerabilities; pursue cost-effective, long-lasting infrastructure • Storm surge investments; advance efficient transportation options; and take • Rising groundwater proactive steps to develop a transportation system that is resilient to disruption and damage associated with extreme weather and changing environmental conditions. To address the region’s vulnerability and help ensure a resilient transportation network, KACTS aims to develop climate-related targets and performance measures in the coming years.
Public Involvement
As stated in the Public Participation Plan (PPP), KACTS values input from all sources and makes every effort to reach out to individuals of all abilities, backgrounds, ethnicities, incomes and disabilities. In developing this plan, KACTS was able to use a service known as MetroQuest, to design and distribute a survey asking the public and interested parties their values, preferences and issues with Southern Maine’s transportation system. The survey was also developed with the goal of receiving feedback to help prioritize future investments for the region. In developing the
survey, the KACTS Policy Committee considered several priorities and investment needs and their Map of problem and focus areas in the region impact on the region. This survey was made identified by the public by using the MetroQuest available online and at public places in each Survey. See pages 18-23 for more details.
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KACTS community (town halls, libraries, regional service centers). All results from the survey will be saved and utilized during the KACTS decision making process.
A summary of the data points and comments marked on the survey map
KACTS hosted a public meeting on March 7th, 2019 at Kittery Town Hall. Several members of the public came to comment on the plan. The discussion revolved around ensuring long term budgets are sustainable and a correction of a York County Community Action allocation amount. Members of the public indicated the clear need to have estimates for any projects (either by town or by financing agency) and the ability to plan the projects in conjunction with any utility, water and wastewater projects. MaineDOT commented that KACTS should address fiscal constraints and long term budgets.
MetroQuest Survey Results The MetroQuest survey KACTS put out had over 200 respondents and identified over 2,000 data points that identify problem areas (congestion, mobility, safety etc.) and strong points of the region’s transportation system. Respondents were asked to rank their priorities, allocate funds to certain types of projects, and give their main uses of the transportation system. These responses are outlined below:
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Key findings Locating Problem Areas Respondents were given an interactive map of the KACTS region where they were able to place map markers to locate challenges regarding congestion, a need for transit, safety concerns, an intersection, bike/walk, and road repairs. Through analyzation of the 2,800 data points collected it was determined that the largest issues were congestion, followed by safety concerns. It can be concluded from the data points that a majority of the concerns lie along Route 236 starting in Berwick and going down to Kittery, with a high amount of the problem areas being in South Berwick on Route 236.
Priority Ranking Survey participants were given 6 categories and asked to list their priorities from top to bottom resulting in a determination of which categories need the most focus. The results listed from respondents highest to lowest priorities are as follows; 1. Improve safety 2. State of good repair 3. Improve mobility 4. Resiliency/climate change 5. Economic versatility and 6. Integrate land use.
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Budget Allocation In order to determine the public’s opinion on allocating the budget, survey participants were given 15 coins to distribute and invest in 6 categories based on what they believe needs the most funding. Of the results the average spend in each category are as follows, 31% of coins were placed in improving safety for all users, 15% in more bicycle / pedestrian facilities, 18% in expanding public transportation, 16% in technology systems, 10% for preserving the current system and 10% in systems for older demographics.
Commute Time / Mode of Transportation Most of the respondents indicated their travel time to work is less than 15 minutes, followed by participants in the range of 15-24 minutes or 25-35 minutes, and around 9% of participants in the categories of 36-45 minutes or over 46 minutes for commute time. Of those a majority drive alone to work with 79% of participants in that category, followed by 8% of participants in both the categories of working at home or carpooling, and lastly 2% bike or walk and 3% use other modes of transportation.
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Financial Constraint
In a federal government climate that is constantly changing, KACTS needs to remain flexible to adapt to its environment. Despite this climate, KACTS has received the same funding levels for the last several years – approximately $795,027 including State and local matching funds. In early 2019, this amount was allocated for the Calendar Year 2022 for Capital Funding by MaineDOT. Previous funding levels are shown below:
KACTS Funding Allocation, 2009,2019 $900,000 $800,000 $700,000 $600,000 $500,000 $400,000 $300,000 $200,000 $100,000 $- 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
KACTS Funding
Having worked within this budget for the past 10 years, it has been determined that the current KACTS funding allocation is insufficient to suit the needs of the region. Current budgeting is enough for one larger or potentially two smaller projects per year. Additionally, between the ever increasing competitiveness of the labor market and upwards of 20% higher construction costs on most projects, working within the current KACTS funding allocation is infeasible and unsustainable. The result is shifting costs of larger projects on our small towns and inability to appropriately plan projects that will maintain the condition of the KACTS transportation system. With the need for additional revenue sources clear, KACTS will become more active in the funding allocation process to ensure it can serve the needs of Berwick, Eliot, Kittery, York and South Berwick.
In order to achieve this end, KACTS should:
1. Better represent itself in Maine’s capitol of Augusta, and in Washington, D.C., presenting fact-based performance standard achievements to lawmakers 2. Continue to maintain list of actively needed projects that are ready for design, engineering and/or construction to illustrate continued needs of the region
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3. Apply for the federal Municipal Partnership Initiative (MPI) program. The MPI program in 2019 was funded entirely by MaineDOT, so federal funding requirements did not apply. This made for a more wide array of projects to be selected 4. Fund projects in phases to maximize and make equal long term investments
Securing funds necessary to meet the region’s transportation needs outlined in this plan may be the biggest challenge facing decision makers in the MPO process, across all levels of government.
MPO CAPITAL IMPROVEMENT FUNDING FORMULA
Maine allocates capital improvement money to the four MPOs based on the formula that the U.S. Congress uses to distribute transportation funding to the states. The formula uses a weighted combination of non-interstate lane miles, vehicle miles traveled and population to calculate NHS, STP and Equity Bonus allocations. The NHS and non-NHS amounts are combined to determine the total federal allocation for each MPO.
DISTRIBUTION FORMULA FOR NHS FUNDS
Maine NHS Funds × [(WtVMT × % MPO VMT) + (WtLM × % MPO LM) +
(WtLM/Pop × % MPO LM/Pop)] …where:
Maine NHS Funds = Maine’s biennial apportionment of NHS funding, drawn from the FHWA Fiscal Management Information System Report W10A, with an obligation limitation.
WtVMT = Weighting factor for vehicle miles traveled (0.50), based on the federal formula. % MPO VMT = Percentage of statewide system VMT within an MPO area.
WtLM = Weighting factor for lane miles (0.36), based on the federal NHS formula. % MPO LM = Percentage of statewide non-interstate lane miles in an MPO area.
WtLM/Pop = Weighting factor for lane miles ÷ population (0.14), based on federal formula.
% MPO LM/Pop = Percentage of statewide non-interstate lane miles ÷ MPO population.
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NHS weighting factors, modeled after federal formula
Factor Federal Formula Maine Formula*
Vehicle Miles Traveled 0.35 0.50
Lane Miles 0.25 0.36
LM/POP 0.10 0.14
Diesel Fuel Use 0.30 0.00
Total 1.00 1.00
* Note: The federal NHS formula considers estimates of fuel tax payments from motorists in each state to the national Highway Trust Fund. The MPO formula does not use this factor and adjusts the others proportionally.
DISTRIBUTION FORMULA FOR STP FUNDS
Maine STP Funds × [(WtVMT × % MPO VMT) + (WtLM × % MPO LM)] … where:
Maine STP Funds = Maine’s apportionment of STP funding in a given biennium, drawn from Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) Fiscal Management Information System (FMIS) Report W10A, with an obligation limitation applied.
WtVMT = Weighting factor for vehicle miles traveled (0.62), based on the formula for apportioning federal STP funding to Maine. % MPO VMT = Percentage of statewide system VMT within an MPO area.
WtLM = Weighting factor for lane miles (0.38), based on the formula for apportioning STP funding to Maine.
% MPO LM = Percentage of statewide system lane miles within an MPO area Data for MPO NHS funding formula
NHS Vehicle Miles Traveled Non-Interstate NHS Lane Miles LM ÷ POP MPO (#) (%) (#) (%) Ratio
ATRC 139,321,770 5.4% 78 3.5% 0.0056
BACTS 76,971,153 3.0% 52 2.3% 0.0051
KACTS 15,278,312 0.6% 7 0.3% 0.0054
PACTS 204,122,005 7.9% 90 4.0% 0.0039
MPO areas 435,693,240 16.9% 226 10.1% 0.0046
Outside MPO areas 2,147,202,078 83.1% 2,008 89.9% 0.0117
Total, Statewide 2,582,895,318 100.0% 2,234 100.0% 0.0097
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STP weighting factors, based on federal formula
Factor Federal Formula Maine Formula*
Vehicle Miles Traveled 0.40 0.62
Lane Miles 0.25 0.38
Highway Trust Fund 0.35 0.00
Total 1.00 1.00
* Note: The federal STP formula considers estimates of fuel tax payments from motorists in each state to the national Highway Trust Fund. Maine’s formula does not use this factor and adjusts the others proportionally.
Data for MPO STP funding formula
Non-NHS Vehicle Miles Traveled Non-NHS Lane Miles MPO (#) (%) (#) (%)
ATRC 258,609,413.1 4.1% 298.96 2.9%
BACTS 318,293,979.5 5.1% 273.62 2.6%
KACTS 124,244,467.0 2.0% 104.71 1.0%
PACTS 913,756,001.5 14.6% 665.00 6.4%
MPO areas 1,614,903,861.1 25.7% 1,342.29 12.9%
Outside MPO areas 4,659,858,698.9 74.3% 9,060.71 87.1%
Total, Statewide 6,274,762,560.0 100.0% 10,403.00 100.0%
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3. Existing Conditions
Housing
In order for a community to maintain its health, diversity and manage growth, creating a housing stock that is affordable and reliable is key. For the KACTS region, using the Maine State Housing Authority’s affordability index helps local officials determine how affordable housing is in our communities. The index shows the relationship between available household income and housing cost. An affordability index of less than 1.0 is considered unaffordable for a median income family, while anything higher is considered affordable for a median income family.
KACTS, York County, and Maine Housing Affordability Index
Source: Maine State Housing Authority, 2017
As shown in the table above, housing in the 22,665 housing units in the KACTS region are mostly unaffordable, similar to that of both Maine and York County. Three of the five KACTS municipalities are as unaffordable or more so than housing in the state and York County. Kittery and York both have vacancy rates estimated by the ACS to be 14% and 36% respectively. The remaining KACTS communities have vacancy rates from 6 to nearly 8 percent. Homeowner vacancy rates in particular are especially low, illustrating the competitive nature of Southern Maine’s housing market. These rates range from 1% in York to 2.8% in Kittery.
The number of housing units in the KACTS region has grown since the 1990’s, with decennial increases at roughly 1.3%-1.4%. The highest average annual growth (total growth divided by 27) occurred in Berwick, with an average annual growth rate of 1.55% in this 27 year period. Most of these units are single family, market rate housing. When combining all of the town percentages
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regarding types of housing, the five town average for the region was 75.5% single family units, 17.8% multi-family units, and 6.7% mobile home and other units.
Housing Unit Growth in the KACTS Region by Town 10,000
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
0 Berwick Eliot Kittery South Berwick York
1990 2000 2010 2017
Town % Units Single Family % Units Multi Family % Mobile Home and Other Berwick 72.7% 12.0% 15.3% Eliot 81.4% 13.7% 4.9% Kittery 63.8% 30.9% 5.3% South Berwick 77.8% 16.4% 5.8% York 82.0% 15.9% 2.1% Regional Average 75.5% 17.8% 6.7% Source: Maine State Housing Authority, 2012-2016 According to Maine State Housing Authority data, the Region has 13 housing complexes that are age restricted, affordable housing, disability housing, income restricted or a combination of each. Berwick, Kittery and South Berwick each have three, while Eliot and York each have two. MSHA does not state the size of these complexes, and their locations vary. South Berwick, York and Berwick each have complexes in their downtown, village areas (including York Village), while in Eliot and Kittery these complexes can be found along Routes 1 and 236. Kittery also has an affordable housing complex in its Admiralty Village area, just north of the Kittery’s Foreside area. The Town of York has its own housing authority.
The competitive market and unaffordability of housing in the region makes it more difficult for employees and residents alike to find places to live. The result is more impacts - traffic and volume - on the transportation network, as workers live in more rural areas and commute in. With minimal public transportation resources available in the region, the KACTS employed and unemployed/retired population alike are at a disadvantage if they don’t either own a personal vehicle
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or live within walking distance to the places they need to go. Even for those that choose to walk, bike or ride to work by means other than personal vehicles, public infrastructure such as sidewalks, curb ramps and accessibility can cause a hazard to mobility in the network. Similarly, infrastructure upgrades and restrictions limit where housing can be located, and how many people it can serve.
In the long term, KACTS and its communities should seek to make housing more affordable, expand infrastructure such as telecommunications, public water and sewer (where deemed appropriate), and work to make housing stock more accessible to those with disabilities and mobility concerns. The transportation network will play a vital role in helping to achieve these ends, and our communities will be better off by planning with these considerations in mind.
Land Use
Land use is another aspect of the planning process that is directly linked to the transportation network. In the later part of the 20th century, communities across the U.S. experienced what is known as urban sprawl, or the development of suburbs as the transportation network expanded with more roads, highways and bridges. As sprawl continued, land became more and more available and affordable in the newly developed suburb neighborhoods, and in a cyclical manner roadway expansion continued to support added volume. FHWA deems this cycle as the “Transportation Land Use Cycle”, illustrated in Figure 1.
Today, the KACTS region has a density of 290 persons per square mile of land, with mixes of industrial, commercial and residential populating many downtown corridors and arterial roadways. The majority of the region is rural outside of the small, village and Figure 1 downtown centers. Additionally, helping to prevent sprawl and encouraging growth in downtown areas, the region has several mixed use development properties, containing both residential and commercial uses. Mixed uses conserve space, allow people to live, work and shop in one place, and prevent sprawl. In addition to addressing sprawl, mixed use buildings often do not require parking lots or driveways, which reduce impervious surfaces that are not absorbent to rain and wastewater. These requirements vary by town. For example, in York, parking lots and driveways are required outside of Village or downtown areas. For the areas that do not require these surfaces, it puts less strain on
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stormwater management systems, and disperses fewer toxins into major water bodies.
KACTS General Land Use and Zoning Characteristics
The map above categorizes the land use patterns in each KACTS community. Generally, residential uses are allowed and common in the village areas, while they are less common in commercial areas. Smaller businesses may also be located in residential areas. The purpose of this map is to show in general, how each town uses its land. It is in no way authoritative or exact. Most of the zones are rural and residential, with specific, downtown and village areas that have been highlighted throughout this document.
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Southern Maine’s Transportation System
There is a total of 148 miles of highways in the current KACTS area. The major road networks include Interstate-95, U.S. Route 1, and State Routes 4, 9, 91, 101, 103 and 236. Outlined in the graphic to the right are their respective mileages by roadway class.
Roadway Classification
Principal Arterials (Interstate & Other) are the highest classification. They serve through trips and provide limited access to adjacent land use, provide longer through travel between major trip generators (larger cities, recreational areas, etc.).
Minor Arterials are designed to provide for relatively high overall speeds with minimum interference. MaineDOT further classifies arterials as either “mobility” or “retrograde”. A mobility arterial is a rural arterial with posted speed limit of 40 mph or more that Source: MaineDOT, 2018 carries 5,000 or more vehicles per day for at least 50% of its length. Retrograde arterials have Access- related crash-per mile rates that exceed the 1999 statewide average for Arterials of the same posted speed limit.
Collectors have the function to link local roads and streets with arterials; they collect traffic from the local roads and also connect smaller cities and towns with each other and to the arterials.
Local roads provide access to private property or low volume public facilities. These divisions may be used as a basis for determining jurisdiction, design standards, and allocation of funds. The KACTS region has 297.8 miles KACTS Long Range Transportation Plan 2019 of local roadways. 32
Major Roadway Network Trends
Interstate 95 (I-95) is Maine’s primary interstate highway. Spanning 305 miles from Kittery to the U.S.-Canadian border in Houlton, it serves as the primary interstate connector in the region to neighboring cities such as Portland and Portsmouth. I-95 has 6 lanes throughout the 14 mile stretch in York and Kittery. Mile marker 7.3 in York includes a toll plaza consisting of 17 combined northbound and southbound lanes. Of the lanes, three on the northbound side and two on the southbound side are dedicated E-Z Pass lanes, with the rest being for any vehicle including cash and receipts. The York Toll is often a source of congestion during the final day of a weekend or long holiday weekends in the summer months. In Kittery, crossing into Maine can be equally congested from the New Hampshire side, but traffic usually begins to flow once on the Maine side.
The Maine Turnpike Authority has received a permit from the Maine Department of Environmental Protection (DEP) to construct a new, high speed toll at mile marker 8.8 at a cost of $40 million. The proposed project will include both cash and electronic tolling (E-Z Pass) lanes and replace the existing, 50 year old toll facility at mile marker 7.3 in York.
Average Daily Traffic by Month, Kittery - I-95 at NH State Line 120000 110000 100000 90000 80000 70000 60000 50000
2015 2016 2017 2018
Source: MaineDOT
U.S. Route 1 runs parallel to I-95. With four lanes in Kittery becoming two lanes in York, it sees high volumes of seasonal traffic during the summer months. Common routes traveled take drivers from New Hampshire through York County and up toward the northeastern part of Maine. Route 1 in Portsmouth and Kittery both have roundabout intersections that link back to I-95 and connect the Kittery outlet malls.
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Average Daily Traffic by Month, York - Route 1 North of Pine Hill Road 14000 13000 12000 11000 10000 9000 8000 7000 6000 5000
2015 2016 2017 2018
Source: MaineDOT
Traffic counts south of the Kittery bypass cite Annual Average Daily Traffic (AADT) of 10,170 in 2016, with volumes as high as 16,930 at points southwest of State Route 101.
State Route 236 connects the downtowns of Berwick, South Berwick and the industrial corridor in Eliot with the Kittery foreside and Route 1 bypass, making it one of the heaviest traveled non- interstate roadways in the KACTS Region. Traffic counts in 2016 ranged from over 18,000 northwest of Bolt Hill Road in Eliot and at Kittery’s Route 1 bypass, to 20,210 in South Berwick at its intersection with Route 4. The Town of Eliot has identified several pedestrian safety and intersection issues on Route 236, where the speed limit is 45 miles per hour. Many smaller, collector roads run to Route 236 and in some areas sightlines reduce driver visibility, leading to high speed t- bone crashes.
I-95 and Route 1 are both parts of the National Highway System (NHS). NHS is a system of roadways across the U.S. that have been deemed vital for economic, mobility and defense purposes. These roadways must comply with Federal design standards, oversight procedures, contract administration requirements, and data requirements relating to performance measure reporting. Federal dollars are encouraged to be used by MPOs to improve these high priority roadways, with ten new measures being applied after the implementation of the FAST Act. They are:
1. Percent of NHS bridges by deck area in Good condition 2. Percent of NHS bridges by deck area in Poor condition 3. Percent of Interstate pavements in Good condition 4. Percent of Interstate pavements in Poor condition
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5. Percent of non-Interstate NHS pavements in Good condition 6. Percent of non-Interstate NHS pavements in Poor condition 7. A measure that will assess the percent of reliable personal-miles traveled on the Interstate 8. A measure that will assess the percent of reliable person miles traveled on the non-Interstate NHS 9. A measure that will assess freight movement on the Interstate by the percentage of Interstate system mileage providing for reliable truck travel time 10. Annual hours of peak hour excessive delay (PHED) per capita on the NHS
Commuter Patterns Figure 2: Commuter Destination by County for The American Community Survey KACTS Workforce estimated that in 2015 the KACTS region had a workforce population of 16,365. Of these, approximately 30 percent worked within the MPO region, while 70 percent worked outside of the region. Figure 2 outlines workplace by county for KACTS residents. It illustrates that since 2002, more KACTS residents have worked outside of Maine, with nearly double the workers participating in the workforce in 2015. The most common workplace destinations in 2002 were Kittery, York, and Eliot while in 2015 the most common destinations were Kittery, York, South Berwick and Dover, Somersworth and Portsmouth, New Hampshire.
Commute times to work in 2016 were relatively short, with over 80% of residents within the KACTS region commuting less than 45 minutes, a large Source: U.S. Census portion of which (45%) had a commute of less than a half hour. In each of the towns, 74% or more workers drove alone, 9-12% carpooled (with the exception of Eliot where 4.8% of residents carpooled), 2% or less biked or walked (except in Kittery where this number was 7.3%), and 1-2% of workers took public transit. Eliot had the most residents use public transit as a means of commuting at 2.2%.
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Traffic Safety
Since 2009, there have been 7,688 crashes in the KACTS region, according to MaineDOT and State Police data. The total number of crashes in this period has remained close to 800 until in 2015, 2016 and 2017 when spikes occurred. With 956 crashes in 2015, 919 in 2016 and 946 in 2017 KACTS is seeing increased crash rates in its towns close to 18%. Injury rates vary, and are difficult to quantify as an incident may involve more than 1 passenger per vehicle. Injury degrees are reported in five categories: no injury, possible injury, non-incapacitating injury, incapacitating injury and fatal. In the 2015-2017 timeframe, Berwick had the most fatalities with 14, while York had 3, Kittery had 2, and Eliot and South Berwick had none.
Crashes involving bicyclists and pedestrians have been increasing across Maine since 2010. MaineDOT reported in 2015 that there were 19 pedestrian deaths, the highest since 2006 which had reported 10 fatalities. This trend far exceeds Maine’s 5.9% population increase from 2006-2017. Initial statewide data for 2016 and 2017 indicates this trend has continued, with close to 30 pedestrian deaths – a 300% increase. In the KACTS region, vehicle crashes involving bicycles and pedestrians increased from 10 incidents in 2003 to 11 in 2017, with the severity of the crashes being unknown. In response to this increase in fatalities, MaineDOT has begun several campaigns to increase both driver and pedestrian awareness, visibility and knowledge. This includes handing out hundreds of reflective bracelets, stickers and pamphlets at public meetings and to town officials including police officers. Other state assistance has been utilized to fund local installation of flashing indicators for pedestrian crossings in high crash locations. KACTS is committed to providing a safe transportation network for its residents and visitors, and will work with MaineDOT to improve bicycle and pedestrian safety in southern Maine.
Source: MaineDOT
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Road Network Safety and Deficiencies
One of the ways KACTS and MaineDOT measure roadway safety is by reviewing intersection and roadway segment crash data. These are combined into a list of intersection and segments known as Maine’s High Crash Locations (HCLs). In order to be an HCL, a location must have 8 crashes in a three year period and above a 1.0 Critical Rate Factor (CRF). The CRF is a statistical tool used by transportation professionals to calculate the expected crashes on a particular type of road. If crashes exceed these expectations, the CRF is adjusted proportionally above 1.0.
For the period from 2014-2016, the KACTS region had 20 HCLs, with CRFs ranging from 1 to 8 and crashes ranging from 8-48. These locations are outlined on the map on page 24.
Source: MaineDOT
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The highest CRFs were on the York I-95 off ramps (7.0 and 8.0) and at the Kittery Traffic Circle off of I-95 (5.1).
MaineDOT also tracks customer service level for roadways based on three categories: Safety, Condition, and Service. Each category is ranked from “A” to “F”, with “A” being the best and “F” being the worst service levels.
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KACTS Long Range Transportation Plan 2019 39
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Each category has several indicators that are used. For Safety, they are: Crash History, Paved Roadway Width (including shoulders), Pavement Rutting (excessive rutting in a wheel path can lead to hydroplaning and icing during the winter), and Bridge Reliability. For Condition: Pavement Condition, Roadway Strength, Bridge Condition, and Ride Quality. Lastly, for Service, these indicators are: Posted Road, Posted Bridge and Congestion. For more details, including an in depth explanation of each of these indicators, please visit: http://www.maine.gov/mdot/about/assets/glossary/index.shtml#2|glossary2
Bridges
Located across the Piscataqua River from New Hampshire, KACTS has several large scale bridges that connect its MPO area to the Portsmouth, New Hampshire urban area. Three bridges currently span Kittery and Portsmouth: The Piscataqua River bridge (I-95), Sarah Mildred Long bridge (Route 1 Bypass) and the Memorial bridge (Route 1). Each bridge is jointly owned by the MaineDOT and New Hampshire Department of Transportation (NHDOT).
The KACTS region has 92 bridges according to MaineDOT’s 2018 data. 54 are owned by MaineDOT, 19 by KACTS municipalities, 10 by the Maine Turnpike Authority, 2 by the federal government (these bridges access the Portsmouth Naval Shipyard), 2 by Railroads, 1 by private and 1 by “other”. Averaging 41,085 and 40,441 (Northbound and Southbound, respectively) vehicles daily in 2017, the Piscataqua River Bridge sees the most traffic.
MaineDOT inspects all Bridges and Minor Spans on public ways every two years in accordance with the Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) and MaineDOT's Bridge Management Coding Guides. The inspections result in a Federal Sufficiency Rating (FSR) for each bridge, which is calculated by analyzing the condition of each of the bridge's components, such as the deck, the substructure, the superstructure, etc. Table 5-1 describes the FSR scale. Out of the 92 bridges in the KACTS Region, 17 (18.4%) were rated below the FSR range for satisfactory.
FSR Range Condition Description FSR Range Condition Description 90-100 Excellent 40-49 Poor 80-89 Very Good 30-39 Serious 70-79 Good 20-29 Critical 60-69 Satisfactory 1-19 Imminent Failure 50-59 Fair 0 Failed
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KACTS Bridges
Source: MaineDOT, 2018
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The Sarah Mildred Long Bridge, originally constructed in the 1940’s was replaced in 2017 and opened in Spring of 2018. The new bridge features:
• A new bridge alignment, improving marine navigation by straightening the navigational channel. This allows larger ships to access the port and shipyard. • Its larger vertical clearance of 56 feet in “resting position” will reduce bridge openings by 68%, according to MaineDOT. • 11 fewer piers than the former bridge, improving the gateway span leading into downtown Portsmouth.
Freight
Freight is a crucial aspect of a transportation system, and allows for the importation and exportation of larger goods via truck, rail, ship, air and pipelines. In 2015, MaineDOT estimated 97 million tons of goods, worth $96 billion traveled in Maine through its freight networks and resources. The Maine Integrated Freight Strategy lists York County to have total In/Out/Intra Flows for freight exceeding 11.5 million tons of goods in 2015. This trend is projected to remain through the year 2045.
The tables on page 32 and 33 show Maine freight movements by mode for 2015 and projections for 2045. Each column represents freight moving within Maine entirely, from Maine to other states, and to Maine from other states. The trends shown in these tables illustrate that Maine’s freight is primarily done through trucking, water or multiple modes, and each mode will see increased volumes between 2015 and 2045.
The top commodities and trading partners for Maine’s freight system are as follows:
Top Commodities by Value (in Millions of dollars)
Within State From State To State
Total 23,771.16 Total 32,663.71 Total 30,567.44
Mixed Freight 3,990.04 Mixed freight 4,068.46 Mixed freight 4,868.74
Transport equip. 1,203.10 Transport equip. 4,054.12 Motorized vehicles 3,426.47
Coal-n.e.c. 904.15 Machinery 2,274.83 Coal-n.e.c. 2,154.02
Electronics 694.61 Other foodstuffs 1,781.88 Machinery 1,903.11
Machinery 665.83 Textiles/leather 1,402.66 Electronics 1,452.67
Source: Freight Analysis Framework, Federal Highway Administration
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Top Commodities by Weight (in Thousands of tons)
Within State From State To State
Total 49,215.99 Total 24,586.19 Total 12,562.28
Wood prods. 3,631.93 Other foodstuffs 7,733.34 Coal-n.e.c. 1,863.42
Fuel oils 3,591.26 Newsprint/paper 3,707.34 Wood prods. 1,585.80
Nonmetal min. prods. 2,831.50 Fuel oils 1,481.46 Other foodstuffs 1,327.72
Basic chemicals 2,733.66 Wood prods. 1,467.61 Mixed freight 1,162.43
Coal-n.e.c. 2,028.15 Mixed freight 1,405.52 Basic chemicals 620.03
Source: Freight Analysis Framework, Federal Highway Administration
Top Trading Partners by Value (in Millions of dollars) Total 56,352 Maine 23,959 New Hampshire 6,152 Massachusetts 5,208 New York 4,003 Texas 2,562
Top Trading Partners by Weight (in Thousands of tons) Total 74,358 Maine 49,797 New Hampshire 7,983 Massachusetts 3,322 New York 2,881 New Jersey 2,519
Source: Freight Analysis Framework, Federal Highway Administration
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State Freight Movements by Value (in millions of dollars)
Within From To Trade Mode 2015 2045 2015 2045 2015 2045 Domestic Truck 19,265.9 23,608.9 15,269.3 22,571.7 20,335.0 32,486.9 Rail 89.0 84.0 592.5 674.7 768.8 1,042.3 Water 1,284.0 23,608.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Air (include truck-air) 0.0 0.0 54.2 104.9 511.8 736.7 Multiple modes & mail 1,061.5 1,895.3 3,765.2 4,747.6 5,574.6 11,646.4 Pipeline 23.0 46.8 348.7 352.2 526.9 1,211.2 Other and unknown 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total 21,723.4 28,380.4 20,029.9 28,451.0 27,717.1 47,123.4 Imports Truck 1,361.5 2,334.1 3,864.0 10,214.7 736.7 2,439.1 Rail 117.4 284.8 616.9 1,058.7 183.8 478.3 Water 182.7 401.4 2,237.9 2,473.4 247.7 656.1 Air (include truck-air) 0.0 0.0 5.4 23.0 311.5 1,318.6 Multiple modes & mail 281.2 1,065.5 4,028.0 16,763.1 352.9 1,238.9 Pipeline 297.9 702.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Other and unknown 212.0 509.0 637.4 2,665.1 17.0 66.8 Total 2,452.7 5,297.2 11,389.6 33,198.0 1,849.6 6,197.7 Exports Truck 720.1 1,966.7 593.7 1,660.6 2,244.8 7,229.5 Rail 66.4 149.6 53.9 123.9 67.7 227.7 Water 34.3 96.7 233.3 1,660.6 32.9 186.8 Air (include truck-air) 0.0 0.0 884.8 3,538.2 770.7 2,306.0 Multiple modes & mail 48.9 109.6 50.6 139.0 369.9 1,349.5 Pipeline 144.5 274.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Other and unknown 32.2 61.3 1.2 2.0 8.3 22.2 Total 1,046.4 2,658.2 1,817.6 6,305.9 3,494.3 11,321.8
Source: Freight Analysis Framework, Federal Highway Administration
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State Freight Movements by Weight (in thousands of tons)
Within From To Trade Mode 2015 2045 2015 2045 2015 2045 Domestic Truck 47,368.3 63,260.8 16,233.5 25,518.2 9,174.1 14,029.2 Rail 339.8 301.8 807.1 951.9 1,087.7 1,501.6 Water 6.9 14.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Air (include truck-air) 0.0 0.0 2.2 3.4 1,651.7 22.3 Multiple modes & mail 118.1 157.8 514.4 605.1 419.9 527.8 Pipeline 403.1 819.9 908.5 917.5 1,269.8 2,918.8 Other and unknown 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total 48,236.2 64,555.0 18,465.7 27,996.2 11,969.2 18,999.6 Imports Truck 2,195.4 4,383.5 2,919.3 6,437.3 356.9 1,034.9 Rail 430.0 1,084.3 1,076.5 2,264.1 387.3 1,060.6 Water 148.5 220.1 3,019.5 3,566.6 41.7 77.5 Air (include truck-air) 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.8 4.1 14.6 Multiple modes & mail 35.2 111.8 168.9 584.9 63.3 208.5 Pipeline 1,613.0 3,803.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Other and unknown 1,375.7 3,249.2 4.4 12.3 2.1 8.3 Total 5,797.7 12,852.5 7,188.9 12,866.1 855.6 2,404.4 Exports Truck 1,541.2 3,185.2 302.9 750.6 745.5 2,194.7 Rail 252.5 536.1 65.5 149.1 154.3 285.2 Water 41.1 84.4 60.4 168.0 0.7 2.4 Air (include truck-air) 0.0 0.0 12.7 42.4 1.3 5.3 Multiple modes & mail 34.7 87.5 29.9 67.6 18.6 67.1 Pipeline 625.8 1,188.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Other and unknown 185.8 352.8 0.5 1.0 0.5 1.5 Total 2,681.0 5,434.4 471.9 1,178.7 920.8 2,556.3
Source: Freight Analysis Framework, Federal Highway Administration Freight Rail
While most freight that moves to, through, or from the KACTS region does so via truck, there are two freight rail lines in the region as well. The Amtrak Downeaster passenger rail service shares a rail line with Pan Am Railways (formerly Guilford Transportation Industries). In 2016, MaineDOT prioritized $40 million in state, federal and private funds to upgrade Portland’s International Marine Terminal (IMT), including the addition of a 1,500 feet of track to connect with an existing Pan Am Railways main line nearby. Poland Spring now uses this line to get its water from its facilities in Hollis to Portland IMT. It is then shipped south, through the KACTS region to Massachusetts three days a week: Friday, Saturday and Sunday. It is estimated that Poland Spring moved 4,600 containers from Maine by rail instead of trucks in 2016, a reduction of 500,000 road miles and 5,400 metric tons of carbon emissions. The Pan Am Railway runs parallel to Route 4 from Rollinsford, New
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Hampshire through South Berwick, Berwick and then into North Berwick. From there it heads Northeast towards Saco and Old Orchard Beach before heading North to Portland and beyond.
The other freight line is the New Hampshire Northcoast Corporation, which runs along the Maine/New Hampshire border from Ossipee, NH to its connection with the Pan Am main line in Rollinsford, NH. The PanAm line also serves the Naval Shipyard in Kittery and Portsmouth.
Freight Trucking
KACTS has several major roadways that are vital to the success of Maine’s trucking industry (I-95, Route 1 and Route 9 to name a few). Trucking is the most common type of freight in Southern Maine and is projected to be for the foreseeable future. There are several important things to consider when considering freight in the KACTS region:
1. Keeping freight trucks on roads able to support their load. This prevents trucks from damaging roadways and shoulders, as well as aprons and accessories to the roadway. 2. In order to save time, money and the environment, freight trucking can become most efficient by coordinating with waste removal services as well as other manufacturing and retail companies to reduce empty backhauls. Defined as a trip taken back to a truck’s destination with no cargo, empty backhauls are a wasted trip. KACTS will promote coordination between these service sectors in the transportation network to make it as efficient as possible. 3. KACTS has one interstate truck enforcement facility, located in York. KACTS has worked with the U.S. Department of Transportation and FHWA to integrate modern technology to make the enforcement facility check as smooth as possible. This includes use of Weigh in Motion strips that determine weight compliance as the truck proceeds to the checkpoint and Optical Character Reader which checks the truck’s identification number against potential “flags” related to safety ratings, suspensions or other items of interest. 4. Public private partnerships benefit everyone in the freight network. As a result of assisting MaineDOT in locating a much needed truck rest area in the southern part of York County, Howell’s Truck Stop in Kittery was partnered with and thus expanded, with various amenities installed for drivers.
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Source: MaineDOT
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Air Service
Major airports located in proximity to the KACTS region include Boston’s Logan Airport, the Portland International Jetport, and the Manchester-Boston Regional Airport. Each of these facilities offers long distance and international connections. To connect to any of these airports via the KACTS region via public transit, one would need to take the Shoreline Explorer to the Wells Transportation Center, where connections can be made to Boston, Manchester or Portland.
Marine Facilities
Port of Portsmouth
Located on the Piscataqua River, the Port of Portsmouth terminal sits adjacent to Market Street in Portsmouth, and is operated by the New Hampshire Division of Ports (DPH) and harbors. It is the only public access general cargo facility on the river. DPH is the Grantee of Foreign Trade Zone #81 – a designation given by the U.S. Department of Commerce, Foreign Trade Zones Board. This designation allows for goods to enter into the zone but be considered as outside of the U.S., therefore no duty is imposed while in the zone. The Foreign Trade Zone includes 2 subzones (Westinghouse Electric in Newington and Millipore Corporation in Jaffery) and 5 sites:
1. The Market Street Terminal (11 Acres) 2. Portsmouth Industrial Park (75 Acres) 3. Dover Industrial Park (50 Acres) 4. Manchester Airport (1400 Acres) 5. Pease International Tradeport (1900 Acres) Vessel and Cargo Statistics for Ports of Portsmouth and Newington, 2017
Source: New Hampshire Port Authority
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Source: New Hampshire Port Authority
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Public Transportation
Bus Services
Public transportation plays an important role in mobility, access and transportation alike. Its presence in the region reduces congestion, improves air quality, and drives southern Maine’s economy. Transit in the KACTS region is provided mainly by York County Community Action Corporation (YCCAC) and Cooperative Alliance for Seacoast Transportation (COAST). Each of these services receives KACTS funding which is outlined below:
YCCAC COAST
Source: KACTS 2019-2022 Transportation Improvement Program YCCAC provides service from South Berwick and Berwick to Somersworth and Dover, New Hampshire on Thursdays by appointment. Eliot, Kittery and York are served on Fridays, with service running to Portsmouth and Newington, New Hampshire. Riders are required to make a reservation 24 hours in advance to be picked up at their homes. Fares vary with considerations made by YCCAC to the rider’s ability to pay, age and other considerations. YCCAC also operates its seasonal Shoreline Explorer service which stops at Long Sands Beach in York. From there riders are able to make connections to Wells, Sanford, Biddeford, Saco, and Portland, as well as Boston via the Wells Transportation Center and Amtrak.
COAST provides the only fixed route bus service in the KACTS region. From Berwick, COAST runs buses to the Dover Transportation Center and Shaw’s on Central Ave in Dover. Additional stops include WalMart and a large apartment complex, both located in Somersworth. According to the COAST Trip Planner this trip takes approximately 45 minutes and costs $1.50.
COAST’s Clipper Connection serves the Portsmouth Naval Shipyard (PNSY), which is the largest employer in the Region with over 6,400 employees as of 2017. It offers several connections to Kittery, Dover, Rochester, and Somersworth, which all drop off at the Portsmouth Naval Shipyard Gate 1 (Government Street) in downtown Kittery. The 101 route runs from Dover, the 103 from
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Rochester, and the 41cc from Market Square in Portsmouth. Utilizing its Clipper Connection Route 100 service, PNSY workers can take the bus from Berwick at either Town Hall or at the intersection of Allen Street/Saw Mill Hill starting at 6:01AM. The route continues into South Berwick and stops at Main/Norton Streets at 6:09AM, and Main Street at the Central School at 6:10AM. The shuttle arrives at PNSY Gate 1 (Government Street, Kittery) at 6:33AM.
For the return trip, riders may get on the shuttle at PNSY Building 86 or PNSY Gate 1 at 3:40PM. The return shuttle stops at Eliot Commons at 3:56PM by request only and then in South Berwick at 4:11 and 4:13, at Town Hall and the Post Office. The return route continues to Allen Street/Saw Mill Hill Road in Berwick and Berwick Town Hall at 4:19PM and 4:21PM, respectively. The shuttle also runs into Somersworth, New Hampshire, picking up at 5:50AM and dropping off at 4:32PM. Clipper Connection fares are $7, cash only. Half fares are available for individuals who are 65 & older, disabled or have valid Medicare ID.
COAST - Clipper Connection Ridership Rates, 2014-2018 2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
- July July July July May May May May May March March March March March January January January January January September September September September November November November November 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Clipper 100 Clipper 101 Clipper 103 Clipper 44/2
Source: COAST
COAST Route 1 Total Ridership, 2000 - 2018 80,000 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Source: COAST KACTS Long Range Transportation Plan 2019 52
Interstate Bus and Van Services
Service to Logan Airport and Boston is provided by C & J Trailways, and Greyhound Bus Lines. C & J offers daily service out of Dover, Durham and Portsmouth, while Greyhound offers limited service in Dover, New Hampshire. With a reservation, Mermaid Transportation provides van service to Logan and Manchester airports and makes stops at all Park and Ride lots along the Maine Turnpike South.
Passenger Rail
The Amtrak Downeaster provides service rail that runs through the KACTS region, however it does not have a designated stop in the region. The closest passenger stops are located in Dover, New Hampshire, and Wells, Maine. Persons wishing to enter at the Dover Amtrak stop from Berwick are able to use COAST Route 1, which stops in Downtown Dover.
Private Ridesharing App and Services
Services such as Uber and Lyft do not appear to have affected the KACTS region transportation system. This is likely due to a minimal presence of drivers in the KACTS area.
Transportation Demand Management
As population increases in the KACTS region and roads are more heavily traveled, Transportation Demand Management (TDM) has emerged as an opportunity to improve the efficiency of the region’s transportation system. Through encouraging alternate modes to driving alone, TDM can reduce costs of road maintenance and promote the use of existing system resources. These alternatives include, but are not limited to, carpooling and van pooling systems, public transit, interstate bus and van systems, and commercial trucking.
Ridesharing Programs
Sponsored by the Maine Turnpike Authority and MaineDOT, GOMaine is a statewide commuter program. Users of the program are given information on carpooling locations, vanpool pickup and drop off locations, transit options and bicycle and pedestrian tips for those interested. GoMaine’s vanpools are operated privately by Enterprise RideShare.
Eligible participants of the GoMaine program may participate in the Emergency Ride Home Benefit Program, which entitles each participant to a free taxi or rental car ride home (two times in one month or eight times in a calendar year). To qualify, participants need to utilize one of the GoMaine programs at least three times per week.
Another resource to those in the KACTS region is CommuteSMART Seacoast. Operated through COAST in Dover, New Hampshire, CommuteSMART’s mission is to “promote sustainable
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commuting choices (ridesharing, public transit, walk/bike, telecommuting) to support a vibrant greater Seacoast”. It offers commuters confidential, online carpool and vanpool matching service and other workshops and advocacy activities to its members. Additionally, an Emergency Ride Home program for registered commuters working for member employers is available. As part of the Emergency Ride Home program these commuters are eligible for up to 6 free rides home if an emergency occurs during work hours.
Park & Ride Lots
As part of the programs mentioned above, carpooling is encouraged in the KACTS region. According to MaineDOT, the KACTS region has 1 Park and Ride location in York (Chases Pond Rd, west of I-95). It has 26 spots and is a lit parking lot. There is also a signed Park & Ride location, which is town sponsored, in South Berwick next to Town Hall. According to the 2014 KACTS Long Range Transportation Plan, the South Berwick lot had 30 spaces and was owned by the town.
Bicycle and Pedestrian Network
Bicycle and Pedestrian Trends
As our communities and their needs continue to change, so must our approach to planning. In the last several decades, roadways have become more crowded, and people have become more health and environmentally conscious. Although vehicles will remain the dominant transportation mode for the foreseeable future, developing a system that is multi-modal is crucial to the success of the KACTS transportation network. For bicycle and pedestrian planning, this includes incorporating sidewalks, bus stops, bike racks and connections to other modes in the network. Investing in these facilities promotes public health, safety and the overall well-being of our communities.
Along with assisting its member communities writing Comprehensive Plan Transportation Chapters as part of its work with MaineDOT - KACTS will continue to coordinate and collaborate with local and state bicycle and pedestrian groups. In Southern Maine, these include: the Bicycle Coalition of Maine, the Eastern Trail Alliance, and several municipal bicycle and pedestrian committees.
Curb Ramps
The dots in the map below represent curb ramps in the KACTS region. The color variations symbolize who last collected data on the points and are irrelevant to this document. As of 2018, MaineDOT is undertaking a large project to check for compliance with the Americans with Disabilities Act (ADA) for all curb ramps across the State of Maine. KACTS and Southern Maine Planning & Development Commission staff are working with MaineDOT to conduct this work in southern Maine. Data collected includes curb ramp slope, cross slope, width, obstructions to the curb ramps, condition and proximity to public facilities.
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KACTS Curb Ramps
Sidewalks
Many of the sidewalks in the KACTS region are located in downtown, village areas such as the Kittery Foreside, York Village, Eliot town center and Cape Neddick. Sidewalks should be wide enough to accommodate either two people passing each other, or wide enough for a wheelchair to turn easily. Any new sidewalks installed in the region, either as part of a road project or otherwise,
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should meet modern ADA standards. Part of this compliance includes curb ramps near intersections and driveway entrances. Other desirable qualities for sidewalks in the KACTS region include separation from the traveled roadway, either by vegetation or a buffer strip. Sidewalks built with federal funds are also required to be clear of snow during winter months, which add to maintenance costs and wear and tear on the network.
The only KACTS community that has sidewalks beyond its downtown area is South Berwick, which has them located in its residential neighborhoods as outlined in the map “KACTS Sidewalks”, below.
KACTS Sidewalks
Source: Kittery Foreside Land Use, Parking and Transportation Study (2018), York Bicycle and Pedestrian Master Plan (2017), Google Maps
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For bicyclists, having paved shoulders and designated bike lanes improves safety, efficiency and the accessibility of the network. It also avoids pedestrians on sidewalks traveling at slower speeds. In the KACTS region there are bike lanes in both:
1. South Berwick along Knights Pond Road, Agamenticus Road and Willow Drive 2. York along Route 1A.
The Eastern Trail represents the only designated bike route in the KACTS region at this time, running from Portsmouth, through Kittery, Eliot and South Berwick before heading northeast to North Berwick. The Eastern Trail Management District and the Eastern Trail Alliance are the two organizations responsible for developing and maintaining trail segments. The Eastern Trail is part of a greater network of trails across the eastern portion of the U.S. known as the East Coast Greenway (ECG). The ECG (shown in orange on the map below) begins in Key West, Florida, and runs 381 miles in Maine from Kittery to Calais. The Maine segment of the ECG is 34% off road pathways and greenways.
A map of trails and necessary connections to be made in and around the KACTS region is below:
Source: Southern Maine Planning & Development Commission, 2018 KACTS Long Range Transportation Plan 2019 57
Pedestrian Infrastructure
For pedestrians in the KACTS region, sidewalks are the primary facility provided to meet their needs. The American Society of State Highway and Transportation Officials (AASHTO), has developed a Guide for the Planning, Design and Operation of Pedestrian Facilities, which categorizes pedestrian characteristics by age:
Pedestrian Characteristics by Age, as Defined by AASHTO
Maine state law (Title 29-a Subsection 2056, 4) requires vehicles to yield the right-of-way to a pedestrian entering a marked crosswalk when a traffic control device is not in operation.
Bicycle and Pedestrian Safety
According to Maine Statute, Title 29 0 A (§2070 1-A. Passing bicycle or roller skier), “An operator of a motor vehicle that is passing a bicycle or roller skier proceeding in the same direction shall exercise due care by leaving distance between the motor vehicle and the bicycle or roller skier of not less than 3 feet while the motor vehicle is passing the bicycle or roller skier. A motor vehicle operator may pass a bicycle or roller skier traveling in the same direction in a no passing zone only when it is safe to do so. The collision of a motor vehicle with a person operating a bicycle or on roller skis is prima facie evidence of a violation of this subsection.”. Known as “The Three Foot Rule”, this policy is at the center of Maine’s educational outreach to motor vehicle users of the transportation network. Supplemental to this effort is MaineDOT’s campaign to raise awareness of both drivers
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and pedestrians. By enforcement of such traffic laws and educational outreach efforts, making the transportation safer for all users will become easier.
In addition to the three foot rule, KACTS uses complete streets policies in its projects (where possible) that accommodate users of all kinds: bicyclists, pedestrians, transit users, and drivers.
Bike and Pedestrian crashes in the KACTS region are most common in the summer, as tourism creates increased volumes on the roadway, bicycle, and pedestrian networks alike. Between 2010 and 2015, there were 67 bike and pedestrian crashes in the region.
Bicycle and Pedestrian Crashes in the KACTS Region by Town
20
15
10
5
0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Berwick Eliot Kittery South Berwick York
Source: MaineDOT
Resources available to KACTS to address bicycle and pedestrian safety include the Transportation Alternatives Program (TAP) and the Maine Strategic Highway Safety Plan. TAP was established in July 2012 under the federal transportation bill, MAP-21, combining several bike and pedestrian programs and funding from the previous federal transportation bill (SAFTEA-LU). Now, TAP includes the Safe Routes to School Program and Recreational Trails Program, aimed at providing accessible alternatives to vehicular transportation. The program has a 20% local match requirement, meaning municipal grantees must provide 20% of a TAP project’s funding. Successful projects must demonstrate that they will provide improved access or improved safety conditions.
Funding for the TAP program totals $850,000,000 nationwide for fiscal years 2018 through 2020. A portion of the TAP program funding is allocated for non-Recreational Trails Program projects. Half
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of the remaining funds are allocated to funding specific geographic areas and populations listed below:
1. Urbanized areas with populations greater than 200,000 2. Urban areas with populations between 5,001 to 200,000 3. Areas with populations less than 5,000
Federal requirements also mandate MPO Long Range Transportation Plans comply with State Strategic Highway Safety Plans (HSP). Established under SAFTEA-LU, such plans aim to reduce fatalities on the nation’s highways. Maine’s most recent HSP, which was released in 2017, maintains the federally set goal to drive safety performance toward zero deaths. KACTS is committed to this same cause.
Maine’s HSP revolves around the following 14 focus areas:
• Lane Departure • Motorcycles • Illegal/Unsafe Speed • Winter Crashes • Seat Belt Usage • Intersection Crashes • Younger Drivers • Commercial Trucks and Buses • Impaired Driving (Alcohol) • Pedestrians and Bicyclists • Distracted Driving • Large Animals (Moose/Deer) • Mature Drivers (65+ Years Old) • Operating After Suspension
Through supporting the Maine HSP, the Towards Zero Deaths initiative, and by utilizing existing programs that promote education to drivers and pedestrians alike, KACTS can reduce its bicycle and pedestrian crashes, increase safety, and make the network more accessible to all users.
Climate and Resiliency
Greenhouse Gas Emissions
Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, specifically CO2, are the primary driver of observed climate change, and transportation produces a substantial portion of these emissions. In 2015, the transportation sector was responsible for 52% of Maine’s GHG emissions; an increase from the historical average of 42%. Maine’s 2003 Act to Provide Leadership in Addressing the Threat of Climate Change established GHG reduction targets for 2010, 2020, and beyond. The Act set a short-term goal of reducing emissions within the State to 1990 levels by January 1, 2010; to 10% less than 1990 levels by 2020; and reductions sufficient to eliminate any dangerous threat to climate in the long-term (38 M.R.S.A. §576). The Maine Department of Environmental Protection has
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determined that the State met the first statutory reduction target and is currently on track to meet the second reduction target.
Maine CO2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion by sector for 2015. (Adapted from Maine Department of Environmental Protection: 7th Report on Progress toward Greenhouse Gas Reduction Goals)
Extreme Precipitation
Precipitation events can disrupt traffic, damage roadways, bridges, and culverts, and reduce service life of transportation infrastructure. The Northeast has experienced a greater recent increase in extreme precipitation than any other region in the United States; between 1958 and 2010, the area saw more than a 70% increase in the amount of precipitation falling in very heavy events (defined as the heaviest 1% of all daily events). Over that same time period, precipitation in the region increased by approximately five inches, or more than 10% per decade. In the KACTS region, intense rain events have damaged pavement, washed out culverts, and caused travel disruptions due to flooded roadways.
Sea Level Rise and Storm Surge
Sea level rise and storm surge pose significant threats to coastal KACTS communities. In the Northeast, sea level has increased by approximately 1 foot since 1900, an increase that exceeds the global average of approximately 8 inches. This increase threatens infrastructure with periodic inundation, damaging waves, and prolonged exposure to corrosive salt water. The KACTS region is already experiencing impacts of increased sea levels and storm surge. Astronomically high tides and storm-driven surge and waves have flooded coastal roads and caused significant infrastructure damage, requiring costly and recurring repairs. Future sea level rise will exacerbate these impacts, leading to more widespread inundation and Ocean water rushes over Route 1A adjacent to Long more frequent and severe damage. Sands Beach in York, ME during a 2018 winter storm.
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Rising Groundwater
Increasing sea level will not only result in inundation aboveground, it will also cause impacts belowground by “lifting” groundwater. Normally, groundwater levels are higher than sea levels, driving groundwater discharge toward the ocean. However, as sea level rises in the future, groundwater will be slowly forced up toward pavement base layers that need to stay dry to defend their strength, thus reducing the service life of pavement.
Changing Temperatures
Extreme and varied temperatures can wreak havoc on transportation infrastructure, degrading materials, softening pavement, and expanding bridge joints causing stresses on affected assets and resulting in shorter replacement cycles and more costly maintenance. Between 1895 and 2011, temperatures in the Northeast increased by almost 2˚F (0.16˚F per decade). In Maine, the mean annual temperature increased by 3°F between 1895 and 2014.
Maine's mean annual temperature between 1895 and 2014. A simplified linear trend (black dashed line) indicates that the temperature increased 3°F over the record period. (Source: Maine’s Climate Future: 2015 Update)
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4. Planning for Future Conditions and Growth
Population
In 2015, the Maine Department of Administrative and Financial Services (DAFS) State Economist developed population projections for each town in the entire state of Maine. Overall, Maine’s population has been decreasing. From 2010 to 2016, only four of Maine’s sixteen counties experienced positive population growth: Cumberland (2.32%), York (1.73%), Waldo (0.73%), and Hancock (0.12%). As is illustrated by the State Economist’s projections, this largely concentrated growth is projected to continue in York County and neighboring Cumberland County through 2034.
Population Growth by County in Southern Maine and New Hampshire, 2015-2035
Map courtesy of Sanford Regional Economic Growth Council. Maine data source: DAFS, New Hampshire Data: New Hampshire Office of Energy and Planning (OEP). Note: New Hampshire Data is calculated for 2015-2035, Maine Data calculated for 2019-2034.
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Of Maine’s sixteen counties, York County is ranked third in growth during this period, while Cumberland County is ranked second. Similarly of New Hampshire’s ten counties, Strafford and Rockingham Counties ranked first and fourth, respectively, in growth during this period.
At the municipal level, each KACTS community’s projected population is outlined below:
KACTS Population By Town, 2019-2034 KACTS Population By Town, 2019-2034 14,000 14,000 12,000 12,000 10,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 8,000 4,000 2,000 6,000 2019 2024 2029 2034 0 Berwick Eliot Kittery South York Berwick Eliot Kittery Berwick
South Berwick York 2019 2024 2029 2034
Total Percent change from percent Town County Population observed Population projected previous period change 2019- 2024- 2029- 2014- 2004 2009 2014 2019 2024 2029 2034 2024 2029 2034 2034 Berwick York 6,972 7,211 7,484 7,750 7,954 8,119 8,232 2.6% 2.1% 1.4% 10.0% Eliot York 6,258 6,210 6,292 6,337 6,363 6,356 6,308 0.4% -0.1% -0.8% 0.3% Kittery York 9,834 9,535 9,653 9,772 9,856 9,889 9,859 0.9% 0.3% -0.3% 2.1% South Berwick York 7,172 7,213 7,310 7,353 7,366 7,341 7,269 0.2% -0.3% -1.0% -0.6% York York 13,103 12,600 12,810 13,007 13,173 13,273 13,288 1.3% 0.8% 0.1% 3.7%
Source: DAFS State Economist
Of all KACTS towns, Berwick is expected to see the most population growth by 2034, at 10%, with only South Berwick seeing a population decrease.
Employment One of the single largest factors in driving population growth is employment. When large employers establish themselves in a region, it is vital that they coordinate with local officials to mitigate and plan for transportation system impacts. Increased employment impacts roadway congestion during peak commute times, transit ridership, transportation system wear, and housing in areas surrounding larger employers.
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Although Maine does not forecast employment by town or by county, the Maine Center for Workforce Research and Information (CWRI) does project this data by industry. According to the 2016 SMPDC Comprehensive Economic Development Strategy (CEDS), the top industries in Southern Maine by number of employees are: Manufacturing o Nine of the top 25 private employers in York and Oxford County are manufacturing based Healthcare and Education o Of the top fifty businesses in the region, 14 are in these two sectors Non-Profit o Five of the top fifty businesses in the region are non-profit social service organizations Industrial Sectors o Trade Transportation and Utilities o Professional and Business Services o Financial Activities Also of importance to the KACTS network, is Southern Maine’s reliance on small business. The CEDS notes that York and Oxford County are made up of 92.7% of businesses that have twenty employees or less.
Source: Maine Center for Workforce Research and Information
According to the CWRI projections, Southern Maine’s economy will see decreased employment in its major industry: manufacturing, which is slated to decrease 5% statewide. Although, these losses will be recouped by the continuing emergence of the healthcare and education industries.
CWRI’s Conditions & Outlook report produced annually is also a good indicator of labor force participation rates moving forward. According to CWRI’s 2018 report, “through 2026, we expect labor force participation rates will rise in nearly all age groups, but the overall rate will decline due to an increasing share of senior population”.
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Labor Force Participation Rates (LFPR)
Overall, it appears Southern Maine’s workforce may be impacted by statewide decreases in manufacturing based employment in the next decade. With the potential for education and healthcare sectors to grow in Maine, and decreased labor participation rates due to retiring “baby boomers”, the transportation network should be planned with these factors in mind.
Impacts on the Transportation Network
Given the above trends and conditions, KACTS should prepare for the following:
Aging Population
Maine has the highest average age in the nation, at 44.5 years. The largest age cohort, nationally and in Maine are “baby boomers”, or those born between 1954 and 1964. Currently, KACTS is comprised of 20% baby boomers, who are now in their late fifties and early sixties. As our population ages, many residents will be unable to drive themselves or walk as far as they previously had. This will make providing transit opportunities and connections crucial to the success of the transportation network. Similarly, providing age friendly housing, land use policies and principles to age in place will benefit all transportation network users. Some examples of such policies include:
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• Transit Oriented Development (TOD) – Strategically planning integration of facilities into service routes (grocery stores, medical facilities, retirement/residential areas). TOD often encompasses several modes (trains, buses, bicyclists, pedestrians). • Land Use Policies o Tax, financial and other incentives for development of transit oriented development properties where appropriate o Establishment of municipal volunteers and sand supply to decrease weather-related falls during the winter o Promote farmer’s market style display at public events/places with specialized “tool table”, which would include tools that help seniors stay independent and in their own homes. This has been done in Bethel, Maine and is an action referenced in Berwick’s Age Friendly Action plan, which is sponsored by the American Association of Retired Persons. • Housing Policies o Volunteer tax program for property tax credits for those aged 65 and older o Educate seniors about existing tax exemptions o Develop a list of trusted community members or contractors who can replace lightbulbs, door and window fixtures, etc. o Wheelchair and scooter access to housing. This could include municipal ordinances for any major housing projects.
KACTS remains committed to providing an accessible transportation network for all users. Developing projects, goals and strategies with these ideas in mind will be crucial to the region’s success.
Incorporation of Autonomous Vehicles into the Transportation Network
Although this could alleviate some of the concerns raised for our aging population noted above, autonomous vehicles will require clear and visible roadway markings and signals. Planning to incorporate autonomous vehicles into the network could reduce traffic congestion and decrease accident rates and collision impacts caused by human error. Parking may also benefit from the use of such vehicles, as autonomous vehicles could drop off passengers and then park anywhere parking is available.
Climate and Resiliency
Greenhouse Gas Emissions
Due to the long lifespan of CO2 molecules in the atmosphere and relatively slow response time of global processes, GHG’s effect on climate cannot be quickly halted or reversed. However, curbing
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emissions is critical for mitigating climate change and its impacts. FHWA points out that by addressing GHG emissions at the beginning of the planning process, MPOs can reduce their environmental impact while improving transportation decision-making and efficiency at the program level. The Maine Department of Environmental Protection has determined that the State is on track to meet the statutory reduction target for GHG emissions of 10% below 1990 levels by 2020, as established in the State’s Act to Provide Leadership in Addressing the Threat of Climate Change. KACTS can implement mitigation strategies to help reduce local GHG emissions and ensure future State-wide emissions targets are met.
Extreme Precipitation
Precipitation in the Northeast is predicted to continue to increase by 5 to 10% between 2014 and 2050. Higher total precipitation and a higher frequency of extreme precipitation events are expected in coastal Maine, including the KACTS region, due to the area’s proximity to Atlantic storm tracks. Increased precipitation is expected to cause significant damage to road infrastructure and strain the water flow capacity of culverts and bridges. Furthermore, projected population growth and associated development in the KACTS region will lead to an increase in impervious surface, exacerbating impacts of more frequent and intense precipitation events. Regional transportation planning should factor projected increases in precipitation and stormwater into design standards to ensure infrastructure can accommodate and withstand future hydrologic conditions.
Total annual precipitation for 1995 - 2014 (left), 2035 – 2054 (center), and the predicted change or difference between the two time periods (right). The predicted precipitation increase by 2050 ranges from 1 – 7% from the coast inland to the Canadian border. (Source: Maine’s Climate Future: 2015 Update)
Sea Level Rise
Recent projections of sea level rise indicate that Maine could experience between approximately 1 foot and 3.5 feet of sea level rise by 2050 and up to more than 10 feet by 2100. In the KACTS
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region, many significant roadways and rail systems span areas that are vulnerable to coastal flooding. An analysis conducted by the Maine Geological Survey of local road impacts from storm events found that in the KACTS communities of Kittery and York, a total of 30.8 miles of road consisting of 259 roads would potentially be inundated by storm surge associated with a category 2 hurricane. Key roadways impacted include Short Sands Beach; Long Sands Beach; Route 103; Birch Hill Road; and Cider Hill Road in York and Interstate 95 and Route 1 in both York and Kittery.
As seas rise, coastal flooding will become more frequent and severe and impacts of storm surge will intensify. These impacts could undermine or disable critical infrastructure, cause more costly recovery and repairs, and threaten public safety. KACTS can play a key role in increasing Transportation infrastructure in the KACTS communities of Kittery and York that would potentially be inundated by storm the resiliency of the region by supporting surge from a Category 2 hurricane. (Figure Courtesy of Maine Geological Survey) efforts to assess potential impacts and vulnerabilities of sea level rise and storm surge, integrate consideration of future coastal flood hazards in project planning and design, and develop targeted adaptation measures to protect transportation coastal infrastructure.
Rising Groundwater
As sea level continues to increase, groundwater in coastal communities will rise, threatening the structural integrity of transportation infrastructure as roadways become inundated from below. Furthermore, recent research conducted in coastal New Hampshire suggests that rising groundwater levels may also increase the extent of wetlands throughout the seacoast region, which could impact exposure of existing infrastructure to wet conditions. Research also demonstrated that sea level rise- induced groundwater rise could occur more than three times further inland than surface-water inundation from increasing sea levels. Specific impacts of rising groundwater in the KACTS region will be dependent upon local environmental conditions but include deterioration of pavement condition, performance, and service life and will likely compound the effects of surface flooding.
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Changing Temperatures
As global emissions of greenhouse gasses continue, the frequency, intensity, and duration of heat waves is expected to increase. In Maine, the annual temperature is expected to increase three to five degrees Fahrenheit between 2015 and 2050 and the number of days over 90°F is projected to substantially increase. Researchers at the University of New Hampshire modeled the effects of rising temperature on local pavement condition and performance and found a significant increase in deterioration of roads resulting from projected climate change-driven temperature changes. The MPO can support consideration of expected temperature changes in project planning and encourage the use of infrastructure materials that are resistant to extreme temperatures.
Mean annual temperature for 1995 – 2014 (left), 2035 – 2054 (center), and the predicted change or difference between the two time periods (right). The predicted rise in temperature by 2050 ranges from 3.0 to 5.0°F from the coast inland to the Canadian border. (Source: Maine’s Climate Future: 2015 Update) Information Needs
To adequately prepare for climate change impacts and develop appropriate mitigation and adaptation strategies that increase the resilience of the transportation network, KACTS requires an improved understanding of what local climate impacts will be and how vulnerable existing infrastructure is to those impacts. Locally specific information about future conditions and hazards will allow the MPO to better assess climate-related vulnerabilities; identify areas of likely failure; prioritize maintenance, repair, and replacement activities; and make sound transportation expenditures and investments that better serve and protect people, property, and the environment.
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5. Implementation: Goals and Actions
Goal 1: Protect the transportation network, incorporating resiliency and adaptive measures into the KACTS planning process
Incorporating climate change and resiliency in long range planning will enable KACTS to address potential climate-related vulnerabilities, reduce the likelihood, magnitude, duration and cost of disruptions associated with extreme weather and make sound investments in a resilient transportation system. The importance of climate mitigation and adaptation is emphasized in federal and state directives and initiatives and is supported by many of KACTS communities’ Comprehensive Plans. Although there is a pressing need to better integrate climate resiliency into transportation planning and design, there are few tools and analytic frameworks to assist fiscally- constrained transportation organizations to evaluate adaptation and mitigation options. A locally- tailored planning framework that assesses transportation projects for resiliency to climate impacts as well as cost efficiency and savings would help KACTS enhance the long-term resilience of its transportation network.
The KACTS MPO can take a number of practical steps to help mitigate and adapt to climate change impacts and enhance the resilience of the region’s transportation network. Reducing local GHG emissions will help to curb climate impacts and can be achieved through measures such as encouraging better fuel efficiency for vehicles; promoting the use of alternative fuels; installing alternative fuel infrastructure (e.g. electric vehicle charging stations); encouraging transit ridership; and increasing transit, bicycle, and pedestrian options. KACTS could also partner with Maine Clean Communities in its efforts to reduce the use of petroleum in transportation.
Adaptation measures should be integrated into the planning process to help ensure proposed projects are evaluated for resiliency to local climate impacts and hazards. Recommended adaptation actions for KACTS to consider undertaking include supporting studies of climate impacts on the transportation network; encouraging region-wide and site-specific vulnerability assessments of the transportation network to identify assets most at risk of damage or failure due to climate related events; integrating local and regional hazard mitigation planning in transportation planning processes; incorporating the latest sea level rise projections, storm surge data, precipitation modeling, and anticipated future land use and growth in planning and design of projects; assessing proposed projects for long-term sustainability; integrating resiliency criteria in cost-benefit analyses and project prioritization methods. Additionally, KACTS should continue to collaborate with neighboring Strafford and Rockingham MPOs in New Hampshire to develop a regional all hazard transportation recovery plan that incorporates climate-related information and facilitates recovery and repair that enhances resiliency of transportation infrastructure.
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Actions
1. Increase multimodal transportation opportunities by working with COAST and YCCAC a. Develop comprehensive list of service providers, public agencies, employment centers and housing clusters to better plan service routes 2. Incorporate electronic vehicle charging stations at municipal buildings in the region 3. Utilize Maine Flood Resiliency Checklist to workshop adaptive strategies 4. Work with Strafford and Rockingham MPOs to develop all hazard transportation recovery plan
Goal 2: Continue to efficiently plan for transportation systems that are accessible and improve mobility
Transportation systems such as roadways and bridges that are in need of repair often involve removing or relocating utilities. During these improvements, KACTS should consider notifying utility providers who may be considering upgrades to their networks in the near future. This will prevent the same roadway and land from being torn up twice in a short span. These upgrades can also be planned in conjunction with MaineDOT’s Results and Information Office to add ADA compliant curb ramps where existing ramps do not meet the standard. Such improvements along with supporting projects that involve Transit Oriented Development will sustain Maine’s population and economy in the long run, as our population ages.
Actions
1. Coordination of utility projects and construction projects 2. Upgrade Curb Ramps to ADA standard if project is proposed in area with non-compliant ramps 3. Advocate for projects that encourage Transit Oriented Development 4. Adopt complete streets policy that ensures all modes and users are accommodated
Goal 3: Improve safety for all transportation system users
To combat Maine’s rising bicycle and pedestrian incident rate, KACTS will work with MaineDOT to raise awareness of drivers and active transportation users alike. Intersections that have high incident rates will also be analyzed to ensure they remain safe for all network users for the foreseeable future. KACTS will continue to work with local first responders to train, educate and inform the public and transportation network stakeholders on best practices for traffic incident management and response. This includes supporting Traffic Demand Management techniques proposed by the Maine Turnpike Authority, MaineDOT or other administrative bodies.
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Actions
1. Adopt complete streets policy that ensures all modes and users are accommodated 2. Continue High Crash Location analysis with MaineDOT, using crash diagrams, available crash data and site visits to compile KACTS High Crash Location report and recommendations 3. Support MaineDOT’s “Towards Zero Deaths” initiative. Work with local police departments to educate and hand out reflective strips and clothing to network users 4. Continue to work with Maine Traffic Incident Management Committee(s) to coordinate incident response and after action reports on Interstate 95 5. Work with MaineDOT Region 1 to formalize detour routes for I-95 corridor towns
Goal 4: Integrate Land Use
KACTS should seek to promote consistency between transportation improvements and state and local planned growth and development patterns. By efficiently utilizing existing land uses and planning accordingly, future developments can minimize impacts to the transportation network and focus more on making it a network that is more diverse and improved overall.
Actions
1. Consider recommendations made by Kittery-Portsmouth Naval Shipyard Joint Land Use Study (JLUS) 2. Promote Mixed Use Development that works in conjunction with any Transit Oriented Development 3. Assist municipalities in identifying appropriate locations for development at densities and in patterns that support public transit
Goal 5: Achieve a State of Good Repair
Maine has continually received low scores from the American Army Corps of Engineers on its roadway network. In order to facilitate improving KACTS roads and bridges, KACTS will work with MaineDOT to develop a list of projects that improve state of good repair. Using MaineDOT’s customer service level information, and the department’s roadway scanning technology to create such an inventory.
Actions
1. Make bridge improvements a higher priority than new roadway capacity improvements, using MaineDOT and FHWA bridge sufficiency ratings to prioritize each project 2. Continue to prioritize limited funding to high priority roads and bridges, in particular those that provide a transit or bicycle and pedestrian function
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3. Coordinate retrieval of roadway scanning data collected by MaineDOT. The vehicle used is called the “ARAN”. KACTS will retrieve the ARAN data from the department. 4. Use KACTS 2016 and updated 2018/2019 High Crash Locations report produced by SMPDC to evaluate which intersections and segments may have safety issues as a result of roadway condition
Goal 6: Improve Economic Versatility and Safety of Freight Movement
As the gateway to Maine, the KACTS region serves as a vital economic point for the state. With both the Portsmouth Naval Shipyard and the Port of Portsmouth in the area, continuing to keep the region’s waterways, roads and rail facilities operational and accessible is key to regional economic success. York County was second among Maine Counties in 2016 for total freight crashes with 17%. Additionally, 2016 saw greater than 15 crashes per 100 square miles in each KACTS community, according to the Maine Integrated Freight Strategy.
Actions:
1. Support development of program to reduce empty backhauls, coordinating with waste management companies and others in the freight industry 2. Support projects that increase resiliency of freight facilities that are prone to coastal or storm based flooding 3. Mitigate impacts of Kittery-Portsmouth I-95 bridge replacement and York High Speed Toll construction on freight 4. Support projects that are multimodal in nature 5. Work with MaineDOT to reduce York County’s high number of Maine’s total freight crashes
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