4.3 Agro-Climatic Constraints

Study on Study Climate Change Adaptation Approaches for Sustainable and Improving Rural Livelihoods in Gujarat Technology Information, Forecasting and Assessment Council (TIFAC) Department of Science & Technology (Govt. of India) New Delhi TIFAC-IRMA Study Climate Change Adaptation Approaches for Sustainable Livelihoods The study has provided the methodology specifying the trans-disciplinarily approach of combining the biophysical, socioeconomic and demographic factors. For climate change impacts on crop suitability and agro-ecologically attainable yield, the study applied the Agro-Ecological Zones (AEZ) methodology, which was jointly developed by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) and the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA). The AEZ approach is a GIS-based modeling framework that combined land evaluation methods with socio-economic and multiple-criteria analysis to evaluate spatial and dynamic aspects of agriculture. The AEZ methodology provides data on current and future agricultural production. Based on the data on migration, the spatial pattern of future livelihoods could be analyzed. This would help spatial pattern of livelihoods and climate change adaption strategies. All this would devise guidance towards policies and governance of land and water, and mechanism for effectiveTIFAC acknowledges climate change detailed adaptations. technology assessment and analysis by Institute of Rural Management Anand (IRMA), Gujarat for the study. TIFAC also acknowledges valued support from IIASA in developing AEZ model. Authors Pramod K Singh Günther Fischer Harrij Van Velthuizen Harpalsinh Chudasama Lakshmikant Tiwari Copyright 2019, TIFAC January 2019 Contents Page No. List of Figures v List of Tables x List of Abbreviations xii Executive Summary xv Chapter 1: Introduction 1 1.1 Objectives of the Study 5 1.2 Study Area 5 Chapter 2: Methodology 9 2.1 The Agro-Ecological Zones (AEZ) Methodology 9 2.1.1 Structure and Overview of AEZ Gujarat Procedures 9 2.1.2 Detailed Description of Modules 12 2.1.3 Description of Input Datasets 14 2.2 The Fuzzy Cognitive Mapping (FCM) Methodology 16 2.2.1 Assets Sensitivity and Adaptive Capacity: Fuzzy Cognitive Mapping (FCM) Approach 16 2.2.2 Livelihood Vulnerability Assessment 22 2.2.4 FCM Sampling 25 2.2.3 Simulations to Evaluate Effectiveness of Existing Adaptation Practices 23 Chapter 3: Spatial and Temporal Patterns of Climatic and Bio-Physical Parameters 27 3.1 Spatial and Temporal Variability of Climatic Parameters 27 3.1.1 Annual Mean Temperature 27 3.1.2 Annual Mean Precipitation 29 3.1.3 Total Number of Rainy Days 32 3.1.4 Number of Consecutive Dry Days (During Rainy Season) 33 3.2 Spatial Patterns of Bio-Physical Parameters 35 3.2.1 Spatial Patterns of Soil 35 3.2.2 Spatial Patterns of Land 44 3.2.3 Spatial Patterns of Forest 52 3.2.4 Spatial Patterns of Water 61 Chapter 4: Crop Suitability and Agro-Ecologically Attainable Yield 74 4.1 Agro-Climatic Analysis 74 4.1.1 Annual Actual Evapotranspiration 74 4.1.3 Potential Evapotranspiration of Reference Soil (mm) 79 4.1.2 Reference Evapotranspiration Deficit (mm) 76 4.1.4 Length of Growing Period (LGP, Days) 81 4.1.5 P/Pet Ratio 84 4.2 Biomass and Yield Calculation 86 4.3 Agro-Climatic Constraints 88 4.4 Agro-Edaphic Constraints 88 4.5 Integration of Climatic and Edaphic Evaluation 90 4.6 Net Primary Production 91 4.6.1 Net Primary Production for Rain-Fed Region 91 4.6.2 Net Primary Production for Irrigated Region 94 4.7 Climate Change Impacts on Crop Suitability, Average Output, and Attainable Yield 95 4.8 Limitations 145 Chapter 5: Adaptation Options or Enhancing Livelihoods of Rural Communities 146 5.1 Micro-Irrigation to Increase Crop Production in Surendranagar District 146 5.1.1 Climate-Related Impacts and Adaptations as Perceived by the Stakeholders 146 5.1.2 Livelihood Vulnerability to Climate Variability and Change in Surendranagar 151 5.1.3 Scenarios 154 5.2 Water Budgeting in Mahesana District 157 5.2.1 Climate-Related Impacts and Adaptations as Perceived by the Stakeholders 157 5.2.2 Livelihood Vulnerability to Climate Variability and Change in Mahesana 162 5.2.3 Scenarios 165 5.3 Participatory Irrigation Management (PIM) and Resilience to Climate Variability and Change in Mahesana District of Gujarat 168 5.3.1 Climate-Related Impacts and Adaptations as Perceived by the Stakeholders 168 5.3.2 Scenarios 171 5.4 Wadi Schemes and Resilience to Climate Variability and Change in Valsad District of Gujarat 172 5.4.1 Climate-Related Impacts and Adaptations as Perceived by the Stakeholders 172 5.4.2 Livelihood Vulnerability to Climate Variability and Change in Valsad 182 5.4.3 Scenarios 184 Chapter 6: Guidance Toward Policies and Governance 187 6.1 Management of Land Resources 187 6.2 Management of Water Resources 188 Chapter 7: Conclusions 191 References 194 Climate Change Adaptation Approaches for Sustaining and Improving Rural Livelihoods in Gujarat List of Figures Page No. Figure 1.1: Administrative Map of Gujarat Showing Five Regions of the State 6 Figure 1.2: Climatic Regions of Gujarat 7 Figure 2.1: Overall Structure and Data Integration of AEZ Gujarat V4 (Module I-V) 9 Figure 2.2: The Methodological Approach Followed for the Study 18 Figure 2.3: A Sample Fuzzy Cognitive Map 19 Figure 2.4: Accumulation Curve for Sampling 20 Figure 3.1: Mean Annual Temperature for Gujarat 28 Figure 3.2: Change in Mean Annual Temperature for Gujarat 29 Figure 3.3: Mean Annual Precipitation for Gujarat 30 Figure 3.4: Change in Mean Annual Precipitation for Gujarat 31 Figure 3.5: Total Number of Rainy Days 32 Figure 3.6: Change in Total Number of Rainy Days 33 Figure 3.7: Number of Consecutive Dry Days (During Rainy Season) 34 Figure 3.8: Change in Number of Consecutive Dry Days (During Rainy Season) 35 Figure 3.9: Soil Texture Map of Gujarat 37 Figure 3.10: Soil Organic Carbon Map of Gujarat 37 Figure 3.11: FAO'90 Soil Units Map of Gujarat 38 Figure 3.12: Soil Salinity Map of Gujarat 39 Figure 3.13: Soil Depth Map of Gujarat 40 Figure 3.14: Soil pH Map of Gujarat 41 Figure 3.15: Top Soil Texture Map of Gujarat 42 Figure 3.16: Soil Erosion Map of Gujarat 42 Figure 3.17: Soil Drainage Map of Gujarat 43 Figure 3.18: Calcium Carbonate of the Top Soil Map of Gujarat 44 Figure 3.19: Elevation from Mean Sea Level (MSL) for Gujarat 45 Figure 3.20: Terrain Slope of Gujarat 46 Figure 3.21: Land use Land Cover Map of Gujarat for 2007–2008 48 v Climate Change Adaptation Approaches for Sustaining and Improving Rural Livelihoods in Gujarat Figure 3.22: Land use Land Cover Map of Gujarat for 2011–2012 49 Figure 3.23:3.24: DifferentPercentage Types of Land of useLand to use Total in AreaGujarat of Gujarat 4950 Figure 3.25: Region Wise Built up Area of Gujarat 50 Figure 3.26: Region Wise Agricultural Practices in Percentage to Total Geographical Area 51 Figure 3.27:3.28: Region Wise DifferentForest Covers Agricultural to Total ForestPractices Area 5253 Figure 3.29: Percentage of Forest Cover to Total Geographical Area of the Region 54 Figure 3.30: Region Wise Forest Covers of Gujarat 54 Figure 3.31: Forest Resources of Central Gujarat 55 Figure 3.32: Forest Resources of North Gujarat 55 Figure 3.33: Forest Resources of Saurashtra 56 Figure 3.34: Forest Resources of South Gujarat 56 Figure 3.35: Forest Resources of Kutch 57 Figure 3.36: Region Wise Mangroves Distribution 57 Figure 3.37: Region Wise Waste Land Distribution 58 Figure 3.38: Region Wise Waste Land Distributions in Gujarat 59 Figure 3.39: Region Wise Distribution of Wetland in Gujarat 60 Figure 3.40: Distribution of Different Types of Wetlands in Gujarat 60 Figure 3.41:3.42: TotalRegion Fresh Wise Water Surface in DifferentWater Availability Regions inof GujaratGujarat 6264 Figure 3.43: Ground Water Availability in Gujarat 65 Figure 3.44: Geo-Hydrological Conditions in Gujarat 66 Figure 3.45: Dynamics of Ground Water (May 1990 to May 2000) 67 Figure 3.46: Ground Water Dynamics (May 2000 to May 2010) 67 Figure 3.47: Check Dam Constructions in Gujarat (1990–2011) 70 Figure 4.1: Actual Evapotranspiration of Reference Soil and Reference Crop for Gujarat 75 Figure 4.2: Change in Actual Evapotranspiration of Reference Soil and Reference Crop for Gujarat 76 Figure 4.3: Reference Evapotranspiration Deficit for Gujarat 77 Figure 4.4:4.5: ChangePotential in Evapotranspiration Reference Evapotranspiration of Reference Deficit Soil (mm) for Gujarat 7879 Figure 4.6: Potential Evapotranspiration of Reference Soil (mm) 80 Figure 4.7: Length of Growing Period (LGP, Days) for Gujarat 81 vi Climate Change Adaptation Approaches for Sustaining and Improving Rural Livelihoods in Gujarat Figure 4.8: Change in Length of Growing Period (LGP, Days) for Gujarat 82 Figure 4.9: Aridity Index for Gujarat 82 Figure 4.10: Change in Aridity Index for Gujarat 83 Figure 4.11: Annual P/Pet Ratio for Gujarat 85 Figure 4.12: Change in Annual P/Pet Ratio for Gujarat 86 Figure 4.13: Net Primary Production for Rain-Fed Region in Gujarat 92 Figure 4.14: Change in Net Primary Production for Rain-Fed Region in Gujarat 93 Figure 4.15: Net Primary Production for Irrigated Region in Gujarat 94 Figure 4.16: Change in Net Primary Production for Irrigated Region in Gujarat 95 Figure 4.17: Harvested Areas by Crops for Reference Climate (1981–2010) and for RCP4.5 Scenario 2050s (2041–2070) in Kutch 96 Figure 4.18: Harvested Areas by Crops for Reference Climate (1981–2010) and for RCP4.5 Scenario 2050s (2041–2070) in North Gujarat 97 Figure 4.19: Harvested Areas by Crops for Reference Climate (1981–2010)

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