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Vontobel Fund - European Equity 1/5 Monthly commentary / 31.10.2020 Vontobel Asset Management Vontobel Fund - European Equity Approved for institutional investors in: AT, CH, DE, ES, FI, FR, GB, IT, LI, LU, NL, NO, PT, SE, SG (Professional Investors only) Market developments Global equities diverged in October as the escalation of COVID-19 cases, particularly in Europe, shook markets. As the month drew to a close, France entered a new nationwide lockdown, while Germany closed restaurants and bars to curb the virus’s spread. The MSCI Europe Index fell, underperforming other regions, as investors digested the possibility of renewed wide- spread disruption. The US fell to a lesser degree as the looming election also weighed on markets. President Trump was in- fected by COVID-19, but was quickly back out on the campaign trail. Underperformance from the two major regions pulled the MSCI ACWI down for the month and back into negative territory for the year. In contrast, the MSCI Emerging Markets and MSCI Asia Pacific ex Japan Indices continued to make gains. The main driver was China’s accelerating recovery as it reported GDP growth of 4.9% in the third quarter. Portfolio review PURCHASES EXPERIAN ORD USD0.10 Experian is the largest credit bureau in the world. The company also provides analytics software and services. In most markets, the credit bureau industry is an oligopoly, with very high barriers to entry. We believe Experian’s adjusted EBITDA margin of 35% reflects the fact that it is an attractive business. Its capital intensity is low, leading to high ROEs and high free-cash-flow conversion. The company also tends to be resilient during recessions, as additional credit monitoring tends to partially offset falling volumes of credit report requests for loan origination purposes. SALES BANKINTER SA EUR0.30(REGD) - We reallocated capital to better opportunities. SVENSKA HANDELSBANKEN SER'A'NPV (P/S) - We reallocated capital to better opportunities. Performance analysis The Health Care and Consumer Discretionary sectors were positive contributors to relative performance over the month. The Information Technology and Financials sectors detracted from relative performance. On a country basis, France and Switzer- land contributed to relative performance, while Germany and the United Kingdom detracted from performance. TOP3 Contributors: FLUTTER ENTERTAINMENT PLC ORD EUR0.09 From a fundamental standpoint, there is nothing to report. We believe the strong share performance over the past month is a reflection of our investment thesis playing out. The stock price has benefitted from recent market chatter regarding inclusion in the EURO STOXX 50 index, and in our view the market is also beginning to indicate that FLTR may be a long-term winner fol- lowing the Covid-19 pandemic. Paddy Power Betfair announced a name change to Flutter Entertainment in March 2019 to re- flect its portfolio of brands after shareholders overwhelmingly backed the name change. The company was formed in 2016 through the combination of two fast-growing online gaming and betting operators in the UK: Paddy Power and Betfair. The Group runs a dual brand strategy targeting multiple audiences through various channels. With above 20% market share, we believe the company is well positioned to capitalize on the rapid change to online and mobile betting and gaming. CELLNEX TELECOM SA EUR0.25 For institutional investors only/not for public viewing or distribution 2/5 From a fundamental standpoint, there is nothing company-specific to report. Cellnex is the largest independent tower company in Europe. Historically, European telecommunications companies owned their own tower infrastructure, as a way to differentiate the quality of their network. The needs of the incumbent telcos have changed, however. Control of tower infrastructure is not only less relevant, but also capital inefficient. The telcos need to invest now in 5G technology, and many are considering selling their tower assets to finance these capex requirements. Leading the market by a wide margin, we believe Cellnex is in a prime position to lead the consolidation in the tower infrastructure space. Excluding M&A, we estimate the stock is potentially yielding a total return of 8%-13% depending on the terminal multiple assumption. We believe this is a predictable business with long- term contracts of 20 years, predictable growth in tower capacity, inflation linked price adjustment and moderate increase in ten- ants per tower. On top of that, there are opportunities for incremental revenues per tower from small cells, fiber capacity and equipment sharing. We estimate EPS compounding in the high teens (15%-18% per year). PROSUS N.V. EUR0.05 From a fundamental standpoint, there is nothing company-specific to report. Prosus is a Netherlands based technology com- pany with the majority of revenue derived from emerging markets including China (particularly Tencent Holdings Ltd.) and Rus- sia (mail.ru). It also owns outright, or has stakes in, businesses across gaming, social media, and e-commerce. In e-commerce it focuses on classifieds, payments, food delivery, fin-tech and retail. Previously these businesses were owned by the South African Naspers. Naspers grew to be too large for its market, as many local funds couldn't fully own a position which repre- sented north of 10% of various South African benchmarks. This caused the valuation gap between Naspers and its underlying holdings to grow to over 40%. Additionally a discount was applied due to tax leakage if and when holdings were sold or distribu- tions were made to Naspers shareholders. The value of the underlying holdings grew from 2002-2019 over 40% a year, and from 2008-2019 around 20% annually. Prosus, of which Naspers still owns more than 70%, is listed in Netherlands, where there is a dearth of fast growing technology companies. In Europe, it will not represent a huge portion of the indices in which it will join. And in the re-listing in Amsterdam, Prosus' holdings have been revalued to current market values, so distributions (up to $120B) can be given tax free. Our belief is that Prosus should trade at a smaller discount to its underlying holdings than Naspers did. Additionally, we believe that the value of the underlying holdings should continue to grow at a double digit annual rate. TOP3 Detractors: SAP SE During the quarterly earnings release, management guided that they will invest more aggressively to move towards a software- as-a-service payment model. We believe this will have a negative financial impact upfront but should yield a greater growth in cashflows once the investment is completed. SAP is a German based global Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP) software company. Within large organizations around the world SAP has a near monopoly position. ERP runs core operations and hence is difficult and expensive to replace which leads to very high renewal rates. As the industry moves to a cloud and software-as-a- service (SaaS) model revenues will become even more predictable. The company reported quarterly results where they showed strong indications that they are following through with the promise that the previous heavy investment in cloud and SaaS will start to trend down. Hence margins and cash flow are improving. Additionally dilution from stock options is declining as well. DCC ORD EUR0.25 DCC’s stock de-rated due to the lack of news on acquisitions, particularly in the energy segment. Buy-side consensus is expect- ing lower long-term growth ahead. DCC Plc is an international sales, marketing, distribution and business support services group. The company operates through four segments: DCC Energy, DCC Healthcare, DCC Technology and DCC Environmen- tal. The DCC Energy segment supplies, transport fuels, heating oils and fuel oils to commercial, retail, domestic, agricultural, industrial, aviation and marine customers in Britain, Ireland, Sweden, Denmark and Austria. The DCC Healthcare segment pro- vides marketing and distribution of pharmaceuticals and medical devices. The DCC Technology segment provides sales, mar- keting, distribution and supply chain services. The DCC Environmental division provides broad range of recycling, waste man- agement and resource recovery services. The company is headquartered in Dublin, Ireland and employs over 10,000 people across 14 countries. NESTLE SA CHF0.10(REGD) From a fundamental standpoint, there is nothing company-specific to report. Nestle is one of the largest food companies in the world with an vast product and geographic sales mix. The company delivers low to mid-single-digit constant currency organic sales growth consistently, driven by its focus on health and wellness, its diversified geographic exposure, and its wide product range from value to super premium. Under its new CEO it is also more quickly focused on margin improvement and focusing on its faster growing categories and disposing those that grow slower. For institutional investors only/not for public viewing or distribution 3/5 Outlook In volatile and unpredictable markets, it is important to seek a balance across regions and between high-growth and more de- fensive sectors. At Vontobel Quality Growth, we look for quality companies with differentiated growth drivers. We seek out busi- nesses with long-term structural growth prospects and strong balance sheets that are trading at reasonable valuations, as we believe quality companies can grow, regardless of the environment. For institutional investors only/not for public viewing or distribution 4/5 Performance (in %) Net returns Rolling 12-month net returns EUR Fund Index Start date End date Fund Index MTD -3.6 -5.0 01.11.2019 30.10.2020 -1.6 -13.1 YTD -4.9 -17.1 01.11.2018 31.10.2019 14.9 12.6 2019 28.6 26.1 01.11.2017 31.10.2018 -5.9 -5.8 3 years p.a. 2.1 -2.7 01.11.2016 31.10.2017 14.7 19.5 5 years p.a.
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