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PRMS – Status & Plans PRMS – Status & Plans by: John Ritter, Occidental Petroleum John Etherington, PRA International Ltd Ryder Scott 11th Annual Reserves Conference Houston, Texas - September 2, 2015 1 Agenda Background - Resource Classification History - PRMS Development/Implementation PRMS 2015 Status PRMS Update Project Future View 2 Petroleum Resources Classification 1907 London Mines Institute 1937 API 1955 World Geological Congress 1961 AGA 1965 SPE (OGRC) 1972 USGS 1985 SPEE McKelvey 1978 SEC 1987 SPE 1997 SPE/WPC 2000 SPE/WPC/AAPG 2004 2009 SEC 2007 SPE/WPC/AAPG/SPEE/SEG ‐ PRMS 2011 PRMS Application Guidelines 3 “Vision” for Reserves/Resources (developed by OGRC – Sept 2004) Part 1 SPE/WPC/AAPG/SPEE definitions and classification system (and associated estimating guidelines) will continue to be maintained evergreen and enhanced to incorporate new best practices, and unconventional resources, and will be recognized as the premier classification standard. Part 2 Actively promote and facilitate in-depth understanding of the definitions and their adoption by the oil, gas, and related industries; international financial organizations; governments; regulatory agencies; and reporting bodies. 4 Petroleum Resources Management System Published in April 2007; maintained by SPE OGRC; co- sponsored by: Society of Petroleum Engineers (SPE) World Petroleum Council (WPC) American Association of Petroleum Geologists (AAPG) Society of Petroleum Evaluation Engineers (SPEE) Endorsed by Society of Exploration Geophysicists (SEG) 5 2007 Petroleum Resources Management System PRODUCTION RESERVES P90 P50 P10 1P 2P 3P COMMERCIAL Proved Probable Possible PLACE (PIIP) - IN - CONTINGENT DISCOVERED PIIP RESOURCES 1C 2C 3C SUB-COMMERCIAL UNRECOVERABLE PROSPECTIVE RESOURCES Increasing Chance of Commerciality TOTAL PETROLEUM INITIALLY TOTAL PETROLEUM Low Best High Estimate Estimate Estimate UNDISCOVERED PIIP UNDISCOVERED UNRECOVERABLE Range of Uncertainty Not to scale 6 PRMS Official Reference (www.spe.org) (all documents in pdf – free downloads) Also See: Mapping of Reserves Definitions & Estimating and Auditing Standards for Reserves 7 The PRMS Document “Consolidated Format” Section 1. Basic Principles & Definitions Discussion of Principles Section 2. Classification and Categorization Guidelines Section 3. Evaluation and Reporting Guidelines. Section 4. Estimating Recoverable Quantities 23 pages Resource Table I: Classes & Sub-classes Definitions & Table II: Resource Status Modifiers Guidelines Table III: Category Definitions & Guidelines 6 pages Auxiliary Appendix A: Glossary Cross-referenced to Text Definitions 20 pages 8 Guidelines for Application of PRMS PUBLISHED November 2011 (221 pages) Updates and replaces 2001 SPE “ Guidelines for the Evaluation of Petroleum Reserves and Resources” Contents Chapter 1 Introduction Chapter 2 Petroleum Resources Definitions, Classification, and Categorization Guidelines Chapter 3 Seismic Applications Chapter 4 Assessment of Petroleum Reserves using Deterministic Procedures Chapter 5 Probabilistic Reserves Estimation Chapter 6 Aggregation of Reserves Chapter 7 Evaluation of Petroleum Reserves and Resources Chapter 8 Unconventional Reserves Estimation Chapter 9 Production Measurement and Operational Issues Chapter 10 Reserves Entitlement and Recognition 9 Fulfilling the Vision Part 1: Publish the Standard Create and maintain an international standard petroleum reserves and resources classification system. Part 2: Implement the Standard Actively promote and facilitate in-depth understanding of the definitions and their adoption by the oil, gas, and related industries; international financial organizations; governments; regulatory agencies; and reporting bodies. Technical Presentations Training Sessions Mapping Projects Applied Technology Workshops 10 PRMS – Sharing the Vision Globally SPE Reserves ATW’s To Feb 2015 PRMS Training Sites PRMS Presentations 11 PRMS “Mapping” Projects (updates to 2005 Mapping Study) PRMS to CRIRSCO* (Minerals Classification) 2006 for International Accounting Standards Board PRMS to COGEH** (Canada guidelines) (completed 2008) PRMS to New SEC Rules – Completed 2009 PRMS to United Nations Framework Classification (UNFC) (UNFC_PRMS Bridging Document completed 2013) PRMS to Russian Federation Classification 2013 (Update ongoing 2015) PRMS to Chinese Classification (work in progress - 2015) *Committee for Mineral Reserves International Reporting Standards **Canadian Oil and Gas Evaluation Handbook 1212 • PRMS Status • PRMS Future Plans 13 PRMS Adoption Status - 2015 PRMS is implicitly or explicitly referenced by: Securities Oil & Gas Regulators Companies Government USA (SEC) Reporting Canada (CSA) Hong Kong (HKEX) BOEM Australia (ASX) PRMS ANP UK (LSE-AIM) EBN Singapore CNH Argentina Netherlands UNFC Brazil Italy Financial OPEC France IASB (ESMA) ESMA = European Securities and Markets Authority BOEM = Bureau of Ocean Energy Management ANP = Brazil Agencia National do Petroleo EBN = European Business Network CNH = Mexican Comision Nacional de Hidrocarburos 14 IASB Extractive Activities Project 2011 Discussion paper (accounting interface) 15 Applying PRMS Unconventional Resources Conventional Resources PRMS Fundamental to a standard is that the classification and categorization of the estimated marketable quantities derived from an evaluation does not depend on the method of evaluation or on the type of resource being evaluated. PRMS is being applied to the full range of unconventional resource projects: Heavy & Extra-Heavy Oil Bitumen Tight Oil & Gas Shale Gas Coal Bed Methane 16 PRMS Update Project February 2013 – Establish OGRC Update Committee Terms of Reference: 1. Improve clarity and, potentially, granularity 2. Align with COGEH and other systems 3. Potential revision of definitions (e.g. discovered) 4. Maintain core principles 5. Expand for other stakeholders (e.g. national inventories) This is an update – not a “rewrite” – part of “system maintenance” Target a draft report in late 2015 17 Main Issues to be Addressed in “PRMS Update” Incremental vs Scenario Methods Integrating Deterministic and Probabilistic Methods Clarify project definition Clarify the “5 year rule” Accommodating unconventional resources (statistical analyses?) Merge COGEH and PRMS Standardized Risking (discovery .. development) Incorporating national inventory requirements (UERR, reserves growth…) 18 Unconventional Resources What’s Different? Different trapping mechanisms & production processes affect evaluation procedures: Relatively limited production history and relatively few analogs on which to base evaluations. Traditional petrophysical analysis may not be relevant - log analysis models are still evolving. Porosity and water saturation may be of little relevance in some unconventional reservoirs - parameters such as total organic carbon or mechanical rock properties may be critical. Production mechanisms are not the same. Stimulation is generally required. Unconventional reservoirs may be very thick and laterally extensive, with ill-defined boundaries and variable mineralogy and mechanical properties. Expect significant variability of productivity & recovery efficiency 19 Classification - Does PRMS Still Apply? Do we need to modify the basic matrix? PRODUCTION RESERVES 1P 2P 3P COMMERCIAL Proved Probable Possible PLACE (PIIP) PLACE - IN CONTINGENT - RESOURCES DISCOVERED PIIP DISCOVERED (DPIIP) classify by 1C 2C 3C Chance of Commerciality SUB-COMMERCIAL UNRECOVERABLE (1- Risk) of project applied PROSPECTIVE RESOURCES Increasing Chance ofCommerciality TOTAL PETROLEUM INITIALLY PETROLEUM TOTAL Low Best High (UPIIP) Estimate Estimate Estimate UNDISCOVERED PIIP UNRECOVERABLE Range of Uncertainty Not to scale categorize estimates based on uncertainty of sales quantities associated with a project 20 Relook at Basic Definitions Net Pay is not defined in PRMS but is one of the most important parameters in the estimation of PIIP : the net portion of a reservoir from which petroleum can be produced or extracted, given a specific recovery technology. Cutoff is not defined in PRMS and is now defined as: A limiting value of a reservoir parameter that removes non- contributing intervals from resource calculations. (from COGEH ROTR study) 21 Relook at Basic Definitions Reservoir: A subsurface rock formation containing an individual and separate natural accumulation of moveable petroleum that is confined by impermeable rocks/formations and is characterized by a single-pressure system. A subsurface rock unit that contains an accumulation of petroleum. Discovered: A discovery is one petroleum accumulation, or several petroleum accumulations collectively, for which one or several exploratory wells have established through testing, sampling, and/or logging the existence of a significant quantity of potentially moveable hydrocarbons. (from COGEH ROTR study) 22 “Known Accumulations” What’s the Issue? The oil sands and most shale gas reservoirs were penetrated by 100’s of wells before the technology was available to recover petroleum. We knew it was there but we could not justify technical recovery. Thus is cannot be Contingent Resources. It was in effect “known” but was “unrecoverable” with current technology. This is common in early stages of unconventional resource exploration/exploitation. The PRMS bucket is Discovered Unrecoverable (or does it just remain as “Discovered PIIP”?) (from COGEH ROTR study) 23 Use of Analogs Analogy is the process of transferring information on a subject accumulation or reservoir to another accumulation
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