Csa Speaker Bulletin 01

CSA CELEBRITY SPEAKERS ISSUE 1 FEBRUARY 2015 SPEAKER BULLETIN

A World at The Crossroads Dambisa Moyo - page 02

A Comeback Strategy for Europe Carl Bildt - page 04

global speaker bureau CSA SPEAKER BULLETIN 01

From the editor...

There are reasons to be optimistic not unpredictable as Stephane Garelli about the World Economy, despite the explains (page 3). developed world struggling to recover from the 2007/2008 financial crisis. The On the more positive side we have the emerging countries have fared better phenomenon of the technical revolution, but they, too, have started to flounder with the potential to catapult individuals lately. In this issue some of the world’s and organisations into a new world of most influential voices comment on the success and growth. Joshua Klein world’s most important and immediate explains on page 9 what he believes the developments that affect our global and technical revolution looks like and Ray economic future. Hammond (page 11) analyses whether social media is a force for peace or growth. Reading page 10 ‘Rocking From looking at the blood soaked instability. Your Business World’ might be a shambles across the world, in particular start. It is amazing how rock stars can Ukraine- please note the comments I trust the brief contents of this issue’s invigorate businesses by demonstrating of Joschka Fischer (page 7), and Syria Bulletin creates the right degree of that everyone and every business can - by Ana Palacio (page 6), adding the awareness as to what is happening become a rock star! rise of radical terrorism evoked through around us, but at the same time ISIS, the world is again at a new inspires you to find to some ideal way Dagmar O’Toole crossroads, and the world is volatile but to create a culture of success and [email protected]

Contents

Latest News

2 A World at The 6 Noreena Hertz at WEF Feb Kemal Dervis discusses the Crossroads - Noreena Hertz 16 economic choices facing Europe - Dambisa Moyo 7 Europe’s War in Ukraine Feb Nouriel Roubini talks about 3 The World is Volatile but - Joschka Fischer 1 monetary policies since the not Unpredictable… global financial crisis. - Stéphane Garelli 8 Greece is Playing to Lose - Anatole Kaletsky Jan Carl Bildt, Former Swedish PM, 4 A Comeback Strategy for 29 discusses the UK in the EU. Europe 9 What Real Technological - Carl Bildt Revolution Looks Like - Joshua Klein Munich Security Conference 2015 10 Rocking Your Business - Carl Bildt World - Ian Gillan, Uli Jon Roth, Dee 5 The Greek Crisis Snider - Leszek Balcerowicz 11 Social Media: A Force for 6 Syria’s No-Solution Peace or Instability? CSA is delighted to feature our latest Solution - Ray Hammond digital Corporate Brochure, featuring - Ana Palacio a host of new, as well as established, exciting speakers. Click here to view.

Dambisa Moyo A World at the Crossroads

n 2015, global headwinds – technology, demographic shifts, income inequality and resource Idepletion- will continue to push long-term global growth prospects downwards.

We will continue to grapple with the defining challenge of our time: how to create solid and sustained economic growth and continue to meaningfully put a dent in poverty across the world.

In essence, how do we restore robust growth in the Eurozone, the United States, and around the industrialized economies creaking under mounting debt, challenging demographics, and stagnating productivity; and how do we boost growth in the developing world - home to 90% of the world’s population and where, on average, 70% of the population is less than 25 years old - as a period of unprecedented economic expansion begins to slow in some places and regress in others?

Against this backdrop, the efficacy of democracy and market capitalism will continue to be challenged. Moreover, the temptation of policy makers to pivot to inferior models of economics and politics (including state-led capitalism, trade protectionism and reduced cross- border capital flows, de-prioritizing liberal democracy) will continue to Dr Dambisa Moyo is an international economist and author of mount. Global Bestsellers ‘Winner Take All’, ‘Dead Aid’ and ‘How the West Was Lost’. She has travelled to more than 75 countries From an investment stand point, over the last decade, during which time she has developed a opportunities will be in those countries unique knowledge base on the political, economic, and financial and sectors that benefit from workings of emerging economies, in particular the BRICs and the greater global volatility and declining frontier economies in Asia, South America, Africa and the Middle globalization. n East.

is volatileThe but notWorld unpredictable…

olatility is increasing. What was inflation has not disappeared elsewhere true a few months ago can shift drastically: think about Large companies are cash rich Vcommodity prices, currencies worldwide and use it for dividends, or the performance of emerging share buybacks and M&As…. markets… Never before has the economic and business environment ...While smaller companies continue to had such an impact on companies. struggle to borrow cheaper money

All this volatility can be dangerous Capital expenditures remain alarmingly because it distracts companies low as global demand stagnates from focusing on the essentials: what are the trends that will shape International taxation shifts: pay where So, how can companies take the competitiveness landscape in you make money not where you are advantage of these trends and make 2015, and beyond? What will really registered a difference? matter and where should companies concentrate their efforts and expand Compliance becomes pervasive and The key for success lies in three levels their competitive advantage? shadow banking is next on the list of management excellence: efficiency, change and complexity. Furthermore, Because the world is volatile, it does Family businesses remain a success companies need to stimulate a mind- not mean that it is totally unpredictable. story in Europe and in emerging set of imagination (why not?), of energy It is possible – and indeed critical – economies (why not now) and of commitment (why to identify those major issues that will not me). have a deeper and more fundamental New global companies emerge and impact on business and society. new brands proliferate In addition another phenomenon is The most successful companies gaining momentum: companies are will be those who will address these Consumer attitudes evolve from “I need increasingly questioned about their changes and opportunities early, and it” to “I want it” contribution to society, above and turn them into a competitive beyond their financial results. The strategy. The emerging poor ($2-$10 a day) - “legality” of their actions - conforming 2.8bn people - need a new business to the law - is no longer enough in Hence, what should be on our radar model a world where public opinion also screen in 2015? demands “legitimacy” - conforming Oil price volatility sends a shock wave to a higher standard. In such a world, The « New Normal » may consist of and affects exchange rates, budget companies will need to answer the softer growth with short bursts of balances, etc. broader question: why us? And to activity better anticipate what society expects The cost of energy is key: soon 50% from them. How? n Emerging economies will be less cheaper in the US than in Europe and vibrant, especially if raw material prices Japan Stéphane Garelli is a remain low Professor at both the Urbanization and climate change also International Institute for Interest rates will stay insignificant in affect the cost structure of business Management Development Europe and Japan, a little higher in the (IMD), and at the University US The “Silver” economy (60+) implies of Lausanne, Director of a new focus on Wealth and Health The World Competitiveness Deflation is a threat for Europe but management Yearbook.

from both inside the Continent A Comeback and out.

“When Pope Francis addressed the Strategy for European Parliament last November, he compared the European Union to a grandmother – pleasant and Europe rich with experience, but lacking the vitality and energy of the past. It is high time, Francis argued, that EU leaders Carl Bildt was Sweden’s shed their dozy image, recognize the other countries would create a mega- foreign minister from 2006 to strategic challenges that Europe faces, regional free-trade zone – would October 2014, and was Prime and forge a clear policy for tackling most likely accelerate this shift (all Minister from 1991 to 1994, them. the more so if China eventually joins). when he negotiated Sweden’s Though the TPP faces no shortage of EU accession. A renowned Admittedly, the pope’s characterization hurdles to clear before an agreement international diplomat, he was alarmingly accurate in some is finalized, its potential to augment served as EU Special Envoy to respects. But, despite its seeming Asia’s economic power cannot be the Former Yugoslavia, High lassitude, Europe retains significant underestimated. Representative for Bosnia strengths. It is a hub of high-level and Herzegovina, UN Special thought and innovation; it is home to Europe must work to secure its position Envoy to the Balkans, and some of the world’s most competitive in the new world order – beginning by Co-Chairman of the Dayton regions and industries; and, perhaps enhancing its own trade and investment Peace Conference. He is a most impressive, it has built a ties with the US. The problem is that, member of the World Economic community and market encompassing as the TPP negotiations progress, talks Forum’s Global Agenda Council a half-billion people. on the EU-US Transatlantic Trade and on Europe. Carl Bildt, with Investment Partnership (TTIP) have Javier Solana, discuss here But the world is changing: the Asia- become so deeply mired in domestic what a comeback strategy Pacific region is increasingly influencing controversies that the entire project may for Europe could look like and global developments, economic and well be scuttled.” Read more. n what challenges face Europe otherwise. The Trans-Pacific Partnership moving forward, with pressures – by which the United States and 11 Courtesy of Project Syndicate

Munich Security Conference 2015

his January saw the 51st in previous years. Two key figures at alike. Munich Security Conference this year’s event were Carl Bildt and take place. The aims and Wolfgang Ischinger. As Chairman of the Munich Security Tobjectives of the MSC are to Conference since 2008, Wolfgang be an independent forum dedicated to Carl Bildt, chair of the Global Ischinger is a key figure at the promoting peaceful conflict resolution Commission on Internet Governance, Conference. He set the tone of the and international cooperation and not only attended many of the event during his Welcome Remarks as dialogue in dealing with today’s and presentations, he was also on the panel well as giving the Closing Statement. future security challenges. Over the of the workshop ‘Cyber threats to He moderated a number of debates on decades the MSC has become a key critical infrastructure and its impact on topics such as Russia, Ukraine crisis as annual gathering for the international global governance’. The recent cyber- well as the Chairman’s Debate and the strategic community. This event is attack on Sony Pictures Entertainment discussion with Joseph R Biden Jr the perhaps more topical and crucial than highlights the very real challenge that Vice President of the United States. n faces businesses and governments

The Greek crisis: Be flexible on debt, but intransigent on reforms

Professor Leszek Balcerowicz, the public sector and rent-seeking and the IMF). There has been a sharp the architect of Poland’s to the detriment of honest private divergence between the agreed and economic transformation, activity. These policies were facilitated the implemented programs, and the recently co-authored the by massive inflows of cheap credit latter has had such a time structure following article about the from more-developed countries of the that it has sharply reduced the inherited Greek Crisis, in Europe’s euro area, which in turn were due to imbalances. World. Published every 4 some policy failures at the level of the months, Europe’s World is the euro area, that produced an extreme But there have been high costs in the only independent Europe- suppression of the credit spreads in this form of a deep cumulative decline wide policy journal, produced area. in GDP (over 25% between 2010 in association with some and 2014) and a sharp increase in 150-plus leading European unemployment. The implemented think tanks and academic “ The main benefit of the Grexit policies relied first on the tax increases. institutions. They delayed reforms on the spending option is that, like a sword of side as well as the structural reforms, which were absolutely essential to reece’s voters have spoken; Damocles, it could increase improve conditions for business. This it is now time to act quickly was in sharp contrast to the policies to prevent a Grexit, and it will discipline in the euro area and implemented in the Baltics and in Grequire sacrifice on all sides. Ireland, where rebalancing of the We can better understand what is the raise the vigilance of the financial economy after the acute boom bust proper strategy for Greece – and the episodes was achieved at much lower EU – if we remind ourselves of some markets.“ costs to GDP and employment. It had basic facts: been the nature of the implemented programme in Greece and not 1. Until 2010 Greece had accumulated 2. In response to the crisis that ”austerity” (a bad word) which is to extreme fiscal and macroeconomic emerged in 2010, Greece has found blame for the especially high costs of imbalances while maintaining an itself under the supervision of the economic rebalancing in Greece. institutional regime which favoured Troika (the EU Commission, the ECB, Read more. n

Syria’s But, against this bleak background, there is reason for cautious optimism. Kurdish forces recently succeeded, after No-Solution months of heavy fighting, in expelling the Islamic State from the border town of Kobane. Moreover, the new UN Solution envoy, Staffan de Mistura, has initiated a pragmatic and determined “Aleppo first” strategy, which aims to freeze ADRID – Syria is a blood- military operations in the shattered city soaked shambles. Four and facilitate the entry of aid. Could this Ana Palacio is a former years of civil war have left mark a turning point for Syria? Senior Vice President of Mmore than 200,000 dead, the World Bank, a former one million wounded, and 6.7 million When the crisis in Syria erupted, Spanish foreign minister and people internally displaced. Another 3.8 nobody predicted how serious, a member of the Spanish million are living as refugees outside the protracted, and complex it would Council of State, a visiting country, and 13 million (out of a pre-war turn out to be. For starters, observers lecturer at Georgetown population of 20 million) are in need of underestimated citizens’ ever- University and a member of humanitarian assistance. Two illustrious deepening sense of hopelessness, the World Economic Forum’s United Nations special envoys – Kofi which has driven them to support jihadi Global Agenda Council on the Annan and Lakhdar Brahimi – have groups or the Assad regime. Read resigned in the face of Syria’s self- more. n perpetuating spiral of violence. Courtesy of Project Syndicate

year olds) at Davos/The World Noreena Economic Forum last month to a great reception. She shared her insights into this key target market, Hertz at including what they want, how they consume, and what they value - with an audience that included WEF Marissa Mayer, CEO Yahoo, Kazuo Hirai, CEO of Sony, Richard Solomons CEO Intercontinental An influential economist on the Hotel Group, and Maurice Levy, international stage whose career CEO of Publicis. has spanned Europe, the United States, Russia, the Middle East and Her take on this demographic Africa, Noreena Hertz advises some really resonated with the audience of the biggest organizations and most and this subject area is one she senior figures in the world on strategy, is actively researching. Noreena decision-making and data, global remains of course deeply engaged economic and geo-political trends, with her usual speaking topics: millennials/Generations Y and Z and corporate social responsibility. Global Trends: Geopolitical, Economic, Technological Noreena launched her latest thinking - on Millennials and Younger - a group Decision Making in A Complex she identifies as “Generation K” (13-21 Age. n

Joschka Fischer Europe’s War in Ukraine

Joschka Fischer served as Germany’s Minister of Foreign Affairs ERLIN – War is ravaging and Vice Chancellor from 1998-2005. He is still very active both in Europe’s east. Ukraine is politics and business. He currently runs an advisory firm serving a victim of Russian military a wide range of corporations and institutions, is Co-Chair of the Baggression, and, like it or not, Executive Board of the European Council on Foreign Relations its fate will essentially determine that and is political advisor to various energy companies. of Europe’s, because the current crisis will define the rules and principles that Europeans live by in the twenty-first century.

Will Europe be governed by the principles of freedom, democracy, the rule of law, and the inviolability of national borders? Or will sheer might and the willingness to use force triumph? Will “managed” democracy and spheres of influence trump the right of countries, large or small, to determine their own future?

With the Cold War’s end and the collapse of the Soviet Union, Ukraine’s independence and territorial integrity quickly became a cornerstone of the European order. This strategic fact is more evident now than ever before. Simply put, today’s democratic Ukraine is fighting for Europe’s future.

Russian President Vladimir Putin wants to restore an international order based on exclusive spheres of influence controlled by major powers – the system that prevailed in Europe’s war-torn eighteenth and nineteenth centuries. A European Ukraine and the European Union stand in the way of this goal. That is why current Russian policy seeks to destabilize Ukraine permanently, especially militarily and financially. In its own interest, Europe must not allow this policy to prevail. Read more. n

Courtesy of Project Syndicate

between a weak, but determined, Greece is combatant and a strong opponent “ Game theory suggests that some with much less commitment. In these scenarios, the most stable outcome of the most unpredictable conflicts tends to be a draw in which both sides Playing to are partly satisfied. are between a weak, but determined, In the Greek-German confrontation, combatant and a strong opponent it is easy, at least in theory, to design Lose such a positive-sum game. All we must with much less commitment.“ do is ignore political rhetoric and focus on the economic outcomes that the ONDON – The future of Europe protagonists really want. now depends on something Anatole Kaletsky is an apparently impossible: Greece Germany is determined to resist any award-winning journalist Land Germany must strike a debt write-offs. For German voters, and financial economist deal. What makes such a deal seem this objective matters much more than who, having written for impossible is not the principled the details of Greek structural reforms. The Economist and the opposition of the two governments Greece, for its part, is determined Financial Times, is now with – Greece has demanded a debt to gain relief from the punitive and Reuters. Anatole is also a reduction, while Germany has insisted counter-productive austerity imposed chief economist of GaveKal that not a euro of debt can be written on it, at Germany’s insistence, by the Dragonomics, a Hong Kong- off – but something more fundamental: “troika” (the European Commission, based group which provides while Greece is obviously the weaker the European Central Bank, and the investment analysis to party in this conflict, it has far more at International Monetary Fund). For Greek 800 investment institutions stake. voters, this objective matters much around the globe. more than detailed calculations about Game theory suggests that some of the net present value of national debt in the most unpredictable conflicts are 30 years. Read more. n Courtesy of Project Syndicate

What Real Technological Revolution Looks Like

he developed world is about to receive a collective technological spanking. Worse, despite growing fervor over “innovation”, that punishment is likely to catch us all Tby surprise. A big component of this is actually financial. The black market shadows every existing regulated market on the globe, and is about to become the largest in the world. We don’t think about it, but when we pay the babysitter in cash, or tip a waitress, it’s the black market. Right now, one in seven dollars in the US economy is currently traded this way. What’s more, it’s currently the primary way the bulk of the world does its business - and it’s growing fast.

Similarly, only 1/3 of the planet is currently online, where we Joshua Klein is a fervent hacker of all things - he appear to be spending the bulk of our time trading pictures will hack anything that moves. He specialises of cats. But over the next 5 to 15 years this will change. The in translating these insights into actionable remaining two thirds of the planet will receive the results of a strategies for business leaders. tipping point in tablets, smart phones, netbooks, and concomitant networking technologies on which to run them. clinical trials, vastly improving the resulting research.

These people have more serious issues to solve than playing Another is cloud services which provide the means to manage Candy Crush or Angry Birds. They will instead use these new citizenship (and any attached benefits, such as tax sheltering) technologies to overthrow despotic governments, create new from anywhere on the globe - a service Estonia recently started solutions to under-resourced health care offerings, or transfer marketing as “E-Estonia”. Aside from purchasing citizenship, you $500 billion in annual remittance wages at something less can also open a business in under 20 minutes, sign contracts than the current 10-20% average fee. All of these are efforts online, and, of course, manage your remote bank account. based on new technologies (such as social media, big data, or cryptocurrencies) that are underway today. The good news is that as these changes appear a growing number of us will adapt. That adaptation is likely to take the These two trends alone are concerning. But they become much form of unexpected, far-reaching, and unusual enterprises - more so when you examine them in light of new technologies like AirBnB, or Yo! Those enterprises will use rapid iterations emerging now. One such technology, the blockchain (which and community-driven pivots to conquer new and more underlies Bitcoin) promises to disintermediate the entire global narrowly defined market niches. They will leverage emerging banking system by offering cryptographically enforceable technologies to produce organizations focused on distributed contracts, escrow payments, and authentication. gains and decentralized architectures. And through it all, existing models and industries will fall to their more nimble, quicker, and Similarly, big data offers the means to replace major medical, unexpected competitors. That may be bad for business as usual. governmental, and political systems en masse. Flatiron Health’s But it’s almost certainly good for those of us who are willing to OncologyCloud platform, for example, aggregates data from cast wider nets and shoot for more game-changing solutions. electronic medical records and billing systems. This incorporates There are two sides to risk. Despite the potential for negative data from the 96 per cent of the US who do *not* participate in impact, the potential for massive gains has never been better. n

corporations are looking for new ways dinner talks as well as his ‘life and times Rocking to invigorate their businesses. They of’ chronicling his career highs and are discovering that they can learn from lows. He is also perfect as an awards legendary music acts and the deep, host, bringing showbusiness sparkle to Your emotional connections that they forge any event. with their ‘customers’, ie the fans and how this can be adapted for traditional Uli Jon Roth is the lead guitarist with the Business businesses. Scorpions. He produces and directs his own albums and videos and artistically is an inspiration to other musicians as World well as audiences. He can talk about creativity and inspires and entertains business audiences around the globe. SA Celebrity Speakers is proud to announce new, Dee Snider is a singer-songwriter, innovative business speakers radio personality, actor and is most Cfrom the wider music scene, famous as the lead singer of glam metal to inspire, motivate and entertain your band Twisted Sister. Dee entertains, audience. Rock music has a unique motivates and inspires those around ability to inspire fanatical support from Ian Gillan, lead singer and song writer him. Dee shares his life lessons, its customers; the loyalty poured on with Deep Purple, has been in the demonstrating that everyone can top act performers and those who business for over 30 years. He has become a ‘rock star’, showing how his create it are unmatched. In today’s a wealth of experience and success experiences perfectly translate to help exceedingly competitive marketplace, and can entertain audiences with after any career. n

Latest selection of CSA microsites

Here at CSA we have created a microsite section on our website. Constantly updated and with new microsites being added we are sure they will give you an in-depth insight for a selection of our exclusive speakers. We have developed a suite of information for each of our speakers, from interviews to a range of media. We feature just three of the latest microsites here in Speaker Bulletin, for our full range visit: www.csaspeakers.com/eng/our-business/csa-microsites. n

Click here to view Florence Eid’s Click here to view Dan Hunt’s Click here to view Kate Sweetman’s microsite. microsite. microsite.

Ray Hammond SOCIAL MEDIA: A FORCE FOR PEACE OR INSTABILITY?

Ray Hammond is Europe’s So, has the social media that was internet and streaming media, ordinary most experienced and most invented for entirely peaceful and people are stepping into the role of widely published futurologist. sociable purposes inadvertently news providers and using social media For over 30 years he has provided a terrorist group with a to become part of the Fourth Estate – researched, written and global communications network and to protect freedom and democracy and spoken about how future command structure? It has. ISIS to fight against illegality and corruption. trends will affect society and today has the sort of communications business. reach about which military leaders of You may or may not approve of the past could only have dreamed. WikiLeaks’ publications or the use that Edward Snowden made of social witter, Facebook and YouTube Does this mean that social media has media, but in an age of ever greater were credited as being powerful turned out to be a force for evil rather inequality, social media is giving ordinary drivers and facilitators of the than a force for good? The same people the chance to right wrongs, to Tso-called “Arab Spring” of question was, no doubt, asked about set the record straight and to be heard. 2011. Populations in Tunisia, Egypt, books after the first printed editions Our rulers and their state institutions Libya and Yemen rose up to demand started to be distributed widely. now understand the power of social democracy. media and tread more warily because Social media gives everyone a voice: of it. Today the Arab Spring has turned into a that is what is so special and compelling winter of repressive discontent in most about the medium. The bedridden On a humanitarian level, social media of the nations that were involved and in invalid without political connections or amplifies the kindness inherent in the Middle East in general (Tunisia money can make him or herself heard human nature and translates it into being the honourable exception). But and, if they have something funny, immediate action. Witness the the role of social media in all areas of interesting, wacky, moving, or super- surprising sums of money raised political and social life has continued to appealing to say or show, it’s always online for vulnerable mugging victims, grow. possible that their content will go viral terminal patients with a worthy goal and and millions of people will read or watch straightforward charity fundraising. Recently the internet and social their postings. media have become powerful Like the book (only more so), social propaganda weapons for terrorist Bloggers, citizen-journalists and online media can be used for evil purposes. groups. ISIS now posts videos of campaigners take this opportunity one But, like the book (only more so), it also its gruesome and barbaric murders step further and use social media for has the potential for making the world a online and uses social media in various specific ends, most of them good. In a better and fairer place. My bet is that, forms to recruit disaffected and time when print journalism is in decline as ever in human affairs, the good of impressionable young men and women and television (and therefore TV news) social media will far outweigh the evil. n to its perverted and insane cause. is being splintered and disrupted by the

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