UNCLASSIFIED USCENTCOM COMBINED STRATEGIC ANALYSIS GROUP (CSAG) Strategic Estimate 2021 May 2021 Combined Strategic Analysis Group – CCJ5-G – USCENTCOM UNCLASSIFIED UNCLASSIFIED 0 UNCLASSIFIED UNCLASSIFIED FOREWORD The Coalition Strategic Analysis Group (CSAG) is a unique organization. Charged with providing 'unvarnished advice' to the Commander and Staff, it leverages its vastly experienced and diverse international membership to provide different perspectives, challenge perceptions, and provide a counter-view for planners and commanders within United States Central Command. The Annual Strategic Estimate is one of the principal mechanisms for doing so. By reviewing the last year, the CSAG draws on open source (and, therefore, unclassified) reporting to generate conclusions and recommendations for the coming period. I do not intend to rehearse the significant events of the period here as they were numerous and complex; suffice it to say that the situation in the Central Region continued to evolve at a high tempo. But there are certainly themes and patterns of behavior that have endured, that bear consideration as we plan for the future and which CSAG officers have analyzed within this document. We do not expect that many will read what follows from cover to cover, but anticipate more selective reading of those sections and chapters that are of particular interest. Either way, we would welcome comment and feedback through the administrative team or direct to the authors, whose details are included at the end of each section. Finally, we encourage you to engage CSAG members in your work, to provide a different perspective and to challenge your thinking. Brigadier (O7) James C. Coote, British Army Deputy Director CCJ5 (CSAG) USCENTCOM (813) 529-5005 SVOIP (302) 529-5005
[email protected] 12 May 2021 1 UNCLASSIFIED UNCLASSIFIED 2 UNCLASSIFIED UNCLASSIFIED INTRODUCTION USCENTCOM CCJ5 Combined Strategic Analysis Group (CSAG) produces a yearly, forward looking AOR Strategic Estimate for Commander USCENTCOM and staff.