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The quest for coherence: a comparative analysis of EU crisis management in Africa Nicole Koenig PhD – University of Edinburgh and University of Cologne – 2014 Contents List of tables ................................................................................................................. i List of Figures ............................................................................................................. ii Declaration ................................................................................................................. iii Abstract ...................................................................................................................... iv Acknowledgements ..................................................................................................... v List of abbreviations ................................................................................................ vii Chapter 1: Introduction ............................................................................................ 1 1.1 The quest for coherence .................................................................................. 2 1.2 The broadening notion of EU crisis management ......................................... 12 1.3 Identifying the gap ........................................................................................ 21 1.4 Thesis outline ................................................................................................ 31 Chapter 2: Theorising coherence in EU crisis management ................................ 33 2.1 Coherence for EU crisis management ........................................................... 34 2.2 Liberal intergovernmentalism: a rational game ............................................ 41 2.3 Sociological institutionalism: a norm game .................................................. 49 2.4 A game of interests and norms ...................................................................... 55 Conclusion .............................................................................................................. 65 Chapter 3: Measuring coherence and its causes ................................................... 67 3.1 Degrees of coherence .................................................................................... 67 3.2 Interests, norms, and behaviour .................................................................... 74 3.3 Crisis responses: cases and players ............................................................... 81 3.4 Analysing and collecting data ....................................................................... 89 Conclusion .............................................................................................................. 96 Chapter 4: Libya – the first test for post-Lisbon crisis management .................. 98 4.1 Libya, the crisis, and the EU’s response ....................................................... 99 4.2 A low degree of coherence .......................................................................... 106 4.3 The ‘Big Three’: diverging interests and norms ......................................... 113 4.4 Institutional overlaps and tensions .............................................................. 124 Conclusion ............................................................................................................ 129 Chapter 5: Somalia – coherent crisis management and collective interests ..... 132 5.1 Conflict causes, symptoms, and reactions ................................................... 133 5.2 A relatively high degree of coherence ......................................................... 143 5.3 The ‘Big Three’: concurrent interests and compromised norms ................. 148 5.4 Institutions and bottom-up coordination ..................................................... 155 Conclusion ............................................................................................................ 159 Chapter 6: Mali – between collective strategy and individual action ............... 162 6.1 Malian crises and international responses ................................................... 163 6.2 An intermediate degree of coherence .......................................................... 172 6.3 The ‘Big Three’: French interests and loyal partners .................................. 178 6.4 Institutions: between tensions and French leadership ................................. 186 Conclusion ............................................................................................................ 190 Chapter 7: Comparing crisis responses and explaining variation ..................... 193 7.1 When domestic interests trump norms ........................................................ 194 7.2 Intergovernmental competition and cooperation ......................................... 201 7.3 EU institutions: limited impact and divisions ............................................. 205 7.4 EU players: converging and diverging ....................................................... 212 Conclusion ............................................................................................................ 220 Chapter 8: Conclusion ........................................................................................... 223 8.1 Linking theory and evidence ....................................................................... 223 8.2 Coherence and its trade-offs ........................................................................ 233 8.3 The EU’s future as a security actor ............................................................. 239 8.4 Limitations and future avenues of research ................................................. 246 Conclusion ............................................................................................................ 251 Appendix 1: Initial coding scheme ........................................................................ 252 Appendix 2: List of interviews .............................................................................. 257 Appendix 3: Sample interview questionnaire ...................................................... 260 Bibliography ........................................................................................................... 262 List of tables Table 1: CSDP missions and operations (2003-2009) ............................................... 16 Table 2: Causes of (in)coherence in the literature ..................................................... 22 Table 3: Consistency and coherence: key differences ............................................... 36 Table 4: Categories of coherence in EU crisis management ...................................... 40 Table 5: Core theoretical components of the ‘rational game’ .................................... 49 Table 6: Core theoretical components of the ‘norm game’ ........................................ 55 Table 7: Summary of hypotheses ............................................................................... 66 Table 8: Policy outputs by issue area ......................................................................... 70 Table 9: Ordinal scale for the measurement of coherence ......................................... 73 Table 10: Relevant opinion polling institutes ............................................................ 75 Table 11: Embedded norms in the ‘Big Three’ .......................................................... 78 Table 12: Formal coordination mechanisms for EU crisis management ................... 79 Table 13: Cases and their variation on relevant dimensions ...................................... 85 Table 14: Combined power of the ‘Big Three’ in numbers ....................................... 87 Table 15: Key players at the horizontal level ............................................................. 88 Table 16: Questions for structured focused comparison ............................................ 92 Table 17: Three modes of case comparison ............................................................... 93 Table 18: Data collection – national parliamentary debates ...................................... 94 Table 19: Libyan crisis and EU response ................................................................. 105 Table 20: Pirate attacks in Somali waters (January 2008 - December 2013) .......... 139 Table 21: Somali crisis and EU response (2008-2012) ............................................ 142 Table 22: Malian crises and EU response ................................................................ 170 Table 23: The Sahel Strategy at a glance ................................................................