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The Narcotics Emirate of Afghanistan Examining Armed Polities and Their Roles in Illicit Drug Production and Conflict in Afghanistan 1980-2010

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The Narcotics Emirate of Afghanistan Examining Armed Polities and Their Roles in Illicit Drug Production and Conflict in Afghanistan 1980-2010 Calhoun: The NPS Institutional Archive Theses and Dissertations Thesis and Dissertation Collection 2010-12 The narcotics emirate of Afghanistan examining armed polities and their roles in illicit drug production and conflict in Afghanistan 1980-2010 DuPee, Matthew C. Monterey, California. Naval Postgraduate School http://hdl.handle.net/10945/5005 NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY, CALIFORNIA THESIS THE NARCOTICS EMIRATE OF AFGHANISTAN: ARMED POLITIES AND THEIR ROLES IN ILLICIT DRUG PRODUCTION AND CONFLICT 1980–2010 by Matthew C. DuPée December 2010 Thesis Advisor: Thomas H. Johnson Second Reader: Mohammad Hafez Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited THIS PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK REPORT DOCUMENTATION PAGE Form Approved OMB No. 0704-0188 Public reporting burden for this collection of information is estimated to average 1 hour per response, including the time for reviewing instruction, searching existing data sources, gathering and maintaining the data needed, and completing and reviewing the collection of information. Send comments regarding this burden estimate or any other aspect of this collection of information, including suggestions for reducing this burden, to Washington headquarters Services, Directorate for Information Operations and Reports, 1215 Jefferson Davis Highway, Suite 1204, Arlington, VA 22202-4302, and to the Office of Management and Budget, Paperwork Reduction Project (0704-0188) Washington DC 20503. 1. AGENCY USE ONLY (Leave blank) 2. REPORT DATE 3. REPORT TYPE AND DATES COVERED December 2010 Master’s Thesis 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE The Narcotics Emirate of Afghanistan: Armed Polities 5. FUNDING NUMBERS and Their Roles in Illicit Drug Production and Conflict 1980–2010 6. AUTHOR(S) Matthew C. DuPée 7. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION NAME(S) AND ADDRESS(ES) 8. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION Naval Postgraduate School REPORT NUMBER Monterey, CA 93943-5000 9. SPONSORING /MONITORING AGENCY NAME(S) AND ADDRESS(ES) 10. SPONSORING/MONITORING N/A AGENCY REPORT NUMBER 11. SUPPLEMENTARY NOTES The views expressed in this thesis are those of the author and do not reflect the official policy or position of the Department of Defense or the U.S. Government. IRB Protocol number ________________. 12a. DISTRIBUTION / AVAILABILITY STATEMENT 12b. DISTRIBUTION CODE Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited 13. ABSTRACT (maximum 200 words) The production of illicit narcotics in low-intensity conflict environments remains a serious concern for U.S. policymakers. Afghanistan is a solid example where the intersection of crime, narcotics production and insurgency has successfully thwarted U.S. stabilization and security efforts despite a 10-year military engagement there. This study seeks to examine the role of crime better, particularly narcotics related criminal enterprise, and its effect on the Taliban-led insurgency in Afghanistan. This study explores political, economic and conflict related factors that facilitate the narcotics industry and forges cooperation between drug trafficking organizations and insurgent movements. A key argument of this study is that nontraditional participants in narcotics production, such as insurgent groups or state representatives and institutions, acquire more than just profit and resources. Participants stand to gain political leverage, the social and political legitimacy derived from “protecting” the livelihoods of rural farmers, as well as “freedom of action;” the ability to operate unimpeded within a given territory or space because of public support. This study also suggests that one additional factor, social control, is a key motivator for an actor’s participation in the narcotics industry. 14. SUBJECT TERMS Afghanistan, Pakistan, Taliban, Narcotics, Opium, Heroin, Insurgency, 15. NUMBER OF Warlords, Organized Crime, Trafficking, Helmand, Kandahar PAGES 143 16. PRICE CODE 17. SECURITY 18. SECURITY 19. SECURITY 20. LIMITATION OF CLASSIFICATION OF CLASSIFICATION OF THIS CLASSIFICATION OF ABSTRACT REPORT PAGE ABSTRACT Unclassified Unclassified Unclassified UU NSN 7540-01-280-5500 Standard Form 298 (Rev. 2-89) Prescribed by ANSI Std. 239-18 i THIS PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK ii Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited THE NARCOTICS EMIRATE OF AFGHANISTAN: EXAMINING ARMED POLITIES AND THEIR ROLES IN ILLICIT DRUG PRODUCTION AND CONFLICT IN AFGHANISTAN 1980–2010 Matthew C. DuPée Civilian, Department of Defense B.A., Point Park University, 2002 Submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of MASTER OF ARTS IN SECURITY STUDIES (MIDDLE EAST, SOUTH ASIA, SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA) from the NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL December 2010 Author: Matthew C. DuPée Approved by: Thomas H. Johnson Thesis Advisor Mohammad Hafez Second Reader Harold A. Trinkunas, PhD Chairman, Department of National Security Affairs iii THIS PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK iv ABSTRACT The production of illicit narcotics in low-intensity conflict environments remains a serious concern for U.S. policymakers. Afghanistan is a solid example where the intersection of crime, narcotics production and insurgency has successfully thwarted U.S. stabilization and security efforts despite a 10-year military engagement there. This study seeks to examine the role of crime better, particularly narcotics related criminal enterprise, and its effect on the Taliban-led insurgency in Afghanistan. This study explores political, economic and conflict related factors that facilitate the narcotics industry and forges cooperation between drug trafficking organizations and insurgent movements. A key argument of this study is that nontraditional participants in narcotics production, such as insurgent groups or state representatives and institutions, acquire more than just profit and resources. Participants stand to gain political leverage, the social and political legitimacy derived from “protecting” the livelihoods of rural farmers, as well as “freedom of action;” the ability to operate unimpeded within a given territory or space because of public support. This study also suggests that one additional factor, social control, is a key motivator for an actor’s participation in the narcotics industry. v THIS PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK vi TABLE OF CONTENTS I. INTRODUCTION........................................................................................................1 A. RESEARCH QUESTION AND IMPORTANCE.........................................3 B. HYPOTHESES ................................................................................................5 C. METHODOLOGY ..........................................................................................8 D. ORGANIZATION OF THESIS ...................................................................12 II. THEORIZING THE NARCOTICS-INSURGENCY NEXUS ..............................15 A. BACKGROUND ON “NARCO-TERRORISM” AND THE “DRUG- INSURGENT NEXUS” .................................................................................15 B. CONTEMPORARY ISSUES: CRIMINAL AND INSURGENTS, DIVERGENT OR ANALOGOUS?..............................................................18 C. CRIME-REBELLION NEXUS AND CRIME-STATE NEXUS...............22 D. COOPERATION AND CONVERGENCE WATCH POINTS.................24 III. INTRA-STATE CONFLICT, NARCOTICS PRODUCTION AND SOCIAL CRISIS IN AFGHANISTAN (1980–1992)...............................................................29 A. AFGHAN NARCOTICS PRODUCTION IN A HISTORICAL SETTING........................................................................................................31 B. STRUCTURAL CHANGES IN THE INTERNATIONAL HEROIN MARKET........................................................................................................35 C. INTERNAL FACTORS THAT STIMULATED NARCOTICS PRODUCTION ..............................................................................................39 1. Poppy: Comparative Advantages and Characteristics ..................39 2. The Targeting of Afghanistan’s Agriculture Sector.......................41 3. Lack of State Control.........................................................................42 D. THE POLITICAL ECONOMY OF AFGHANISTAN’S NARCOTICS INDUSTRY.....................................................................................................44 1. Conflict Economy...............................................................................45 2. Shadow Economy...............................................................................47 3. Survival Economy ..............................................................................49 E. CONCLUSION ..............................................................................................50 IV. THE CIVIL WAR PERIOD AND THE RISE OF NARCO- FUNDAMENTALISM (1992–2001).........................................................................53 A. INTRODUCTION..........................................................................................53 B. 1994–1996: OPIUM, ORIGINS OF THE TALIBAN AND ITS ORGANIZATIONAL CONSTRUCT..........................................................54 C. 1997–2000: STREAMLINING OPIUM PRODUCTION AND HEROIN PROCESSING ..............................................................................59 D. THE TALIBAN’S OPIUM PROHIBITION: JULY 2000–OCTOBER 2001..................................................................................................................63 E. CONCLUSION ..............................................................................................66 vii V. POST-TALIBAN
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