Malaysia Daybreak | 29 October 2014
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REGIONAL DAILY December 26, 2012 MALAYSIA Malaysia Daybreak | 29 October 2014 Key Metrics ▌What’s on the Table… —————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————— FBMKLCI Index Plantations - Malaysia implements B7 1,900 We are positive on Malaysia's plans to start implementing the use of B7 biodiesel in stages starting Nov as this will boost the country's usage of palm oil. 1,850 We estimate that the rollout could raise the country's palm oil demand by 263k-390k tonnes per annum, or 1-2% of the total palm oil production in 2013. 1,800 As this equates to an additional monthly CPO demand of only 22k-33k tonnes, we keep our average CPO price forecast at RM2,390 and RM2,460 per tonne 1,750 for 2014 and 2015, respectively. We also maintain our Neutral rating on the Oct-13 Dec-13 Feb-14 Apr-14 Jun-14 Aug-14 Oct-14 sector. Our key picks in the sector are First Resources, Astra Agro and SIMP. ——————————————————————————— FBMKLCI GHL Systems Bhd - One-for-two bonus issue goes ex 1825.68 2.53pts 0.14% Oct Futures Nov Futures GHL’s one-for-two bonus issue has gone ex today. Ex-bonus, our target price 1825.5 - (0.44%) 1826 - (1.00%) adjusts to RM1.06, still based on 23.8x CY16 P/E (at 40% premium over the ——————————————————————————— global payment sector average of 17x, in view of its strong EPS CAGR of 75% in Gainers Losers Unchanged 285 528 274 FY13-16 and attractive PEG of 0.6x). Stronger earnings from the TPA segment, ——————————————————————————— M&A activities in new markets and the possibility that the company could be a Turnover takeover target are potential re-rating catalysts. Maintain Add. 1580.88m shares / RM1786.732m 3m avg volume traded 2671.31m shares Nestle (Malaysia) - Still the leader 3m avg value traded RM2178.39m ——————————————————————————— Regional Indices Nestle highlighted during its analysts’ briefing today that although domestic FBMKLCI FSSTI JCI SET HSI sales grew by only 5.8% yoy, the company considers the achievement 1,826 3,212 5,001 1,557 23,520 encouraging as the growth rate was above industry average. To boost profits, it ———————————————————————————————— Market Indices will continue to focus on increasing its operating efficiency. We trim our Close % chg YTD % chg FY14-16 net profit forecasts by 0.3-0.6% to factor in the higher capex as guided FBMKLCI 1,825.68 0.1 (2.2) by management. This reduces our DCF-based target price. We maintain an Add FBM100 12,315.87 (0.1) (2.2) FBMSC 17,269.52 (1.1) 10.0 rating on the stock given its strong branding, solid delivery track record and FBMMES 6,415.75 (0.6) 13.0 superior ROE. Key rerating catalysts include a positive impact from the cost Dow Jones 17,005.75 1.1 2.6 NASDAQ 4,564.29 1.7 9.3 pass-though and easing raw material prices. FSSTI 3,211.65 (0.4) 1.4 FTSE-100 6,402.17 0.6 (5.1) SENSEX 26,880.82 0.5 27.0 Hang Seng 23,520.36 1.6 0.9 ▌News of the Day… JCI 5,001.30 (0.5) 17.0 —————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————— KOSPI 1,925.68 (0.3) (4.3) Nikkei 225 15,329.91 (0.4) (5.9) • US consumer confidence index climbs to highest since Oct 2007 PCOMP 7,066.74 (0.5) 20.0 • SET 1,556.53 0.6 19.9 YTL aims to expand its global and hospitality REITs Shanghai 2,337.87 2.1 10.5 • MRT Corp refutes claim that tunnelling work is unsafe Taiwan 8,773.55 1.7 1.9 ———————————————————————————————— • MPOC expects CPO price to increase to RM2,100-2,500 in 2015 Top Actives • AirAsia X expects Australia to return to a profit in 4Q14 Close % chg Vol. (m) NI HSIN 0.520 8.3 50.4 • Malindo Air will double its Indonesian network during 4Q14 SUMATEC 0.340 (4.2) 41.8 IFCA MSC BHD 0.590 (3.3) 37.2 PDZ HOLDINGS 0.255 (5.6) 35.3 BERJAYA CORP 0.485 (3.0) 34.3 EFFICIENT 0.330 0.0 32.2 DGB ASIA 0.155 0.0 31.0 TAKASO 0.625 0.0 27.5 ———————————————————————————————— Economic Statistics Close % chg US$/Euro 1.2734 (0.01) RM/US$ (Spot) 3.2745 (0.03) RM/US$ (12-mth NDF) 3.3432 (0.08) OPR (% ) 3.24 0.93 BLR (% , CIMB Bank) 6.85 0.00 GOLD ( US$/oz) 1,228.13 (0.03) WTI crude oil US spot (US$/barrel) 81.42 0.52 CPO spot price (RM/tonne) 2,195.00 0.55 ———————————————————————————————————————— Terence WONG, CFA T (60) 3 2261 9088 E [email protected] Show Style "View Doc Map" Sources: CIMB. COMPANY REPORTS IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES, INCLUDING ANY REQUIRED RESEARCH CERTIFICATIONS, ARE PROVIDED AT THE END OF THIS REPORT. Sources: CIMB. COMPANY REPORTS Daybreak│Malaysia October 29, 2014 Global Economic News US durable goods orders decreased 1.3% mom in Sep (-18.3% mom in Aug). Excluding transportation, equipment bookings declined 0.2% mom in Sep (+0.7% mom in Aug). Orders for non-defence capital goods excluding aircraft dropped 1.7% mom in Sep (+0.3% mom in Aug), the most since Jan. Shipments of non-defense capital goods, used in calculating GDP, fell 0.2% mom in Sep (+0.1% mom in Aug). (Bloomberg) The US S&P/Case-Shiller composite index of 20 metropolitan cities increased 5.6% yoy in Aug (+6.7% yoy in Jul), the smallest gain since Nov 2012. Nationally, prices rose 5.1% yoy in Aug (+5.6% yoy in Jul). (Bloomberg) The US consumer confidence index climbed to 94.5 in Oct (89 in Sep), the highest since Oct 2007. (Bloomberg) The US seasonally adjusted home ownership rate fell to 64.3% in 3Q14 (64.8% in 2Q14), the lowest since the fourth quarter of 1994. (Reuters) The risk of price deflation in the euro zone is limited and European Central Bank (ECB) figures suggest a much lower probability than those of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), ECB chief economist Peter Praet said, but added that policy makers would need to remain vigilant about price deflation. (Reuters) Japanese retail sales climbed 2.7% mom (+1.9% mom in Aug) and rose 2.3% yoy in Sep (+1.2% yoy in Aug). For 3Q14, sales were up 1.4% yoy (-1.8% yoy in 2Q14). (Bloomberg) Bank of Japan (BOJ) Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said there is no pre-set deadline for ending its massive monetary stimulus, signalling that the bank's two-year timeframe for meeting its inflation target is not a rigid one. (Reuters) Bank of Japan (BOJ) Deputy Governor Kikuo Iwata said he sees no need to revise a law guaranteeing the central bank's independence from government interference just because its 2% inflation target cannot be achieved in two years, adding that "it's not set in stone like a train timetable, there is uncertainty." (Reuters) Japanese Finance Minister Taro Aso said that he will consider compiling an economic package to support the economy after examining GDP and other economic indicators for 3Q14, ahead of a sales tax hike next year. (Reuters) South Korea’s consumer confidence slid to 105.0 in Oct (107.0 in Sep). (RTT) In its half-yearly macroeconomic review, the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) said that Singapore’s GDP growth forecast would come in at between 2.5% and 3.5% this year, adding that broadly similar pace is expected for 2015. 2 Daybreak│Malaysia October 29, 2014 The MAS report highlighted that some external-oriented sectors of the economy should benefit from the uplift in the US economy. Still, some activity in the sector may be subject to sluggish demand in the eurozone and China. MAS also pointed out that the manufacturing sector is expected to move up the value chain towards high-margin activities such as research and development (R&D) as well as services. (CNA) Thailand’s exports growth bounced back to increase 3.2% yoy in Sep (-7.4% yoy in Aug). Imports were up 14.42% in Sep (-14.17% yoy in Aug). As a result, trade deficit was THB1.8bn in Sep (THB1.15bn in Aug). (Bangkok Post) Inflation in Philippines is expected to further decelerate in Oct due to the lower prices of oil and a number of food items, averaging between 3.7-4.6%, the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) said. The State Bank of Vietnam’s dong deposit rate cap for terms between one month to less than six months will be lowered to 5.5% from 6% with effect from 30 29 Oct. The refinance, discount and repurchase rates will remain unchanged. (Bloomberg) Malaysian Economic News Malaysia expects to see more anti-dumping cases being initiated over the next few years, as companies use such a trade remedy to protect their business operations. "We foresee an increase in the anti-dumping cases, but not exponentially," said the International Trade and Industry Ministry's (Miti) Senior Director, Mohamed Shahabar Abdul Kareem. He estimated the number could go up to six cases a year, from around three to four per annum in the past. The rise in the anti-dumping cases is attributable to more companies being aware of resorting to the trade remedy measure to fend off unhealthy competition, he told reporters here today after attending a seminar on trade remedies. (Bernama) Johor is confident of maintaining its high level of investment via the manufacturing sector which attracted RM18.8bn as at July this year.