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LONDON MARKETS the Definitive Guide to London’S Office Markets

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LONDON MARKETS the Definitive Guide to London’S Office Markets LONDON MARKETS The definitive guide to London’s office markets Summer 2019 geraldeve.com 3.6 MILLION SQ FT 4.9% Q2 2019 AVAILABILITY TAKE-UP RATE £115 PER SQ FT 30% WEST END GRADE A PRIME RENT AVAILABILITY £72.50 11.3 PER SQ FT MILLION SQ FT MIDTOWN UNDER PRIME RENT CONSTRUCTION £68.50 PER SQ FT 18.9% CITY TENANT PRIME RENT SPACE 2 LONDON MARKETS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Quarterly take-up by region Availability rate by market Source: Gerald Eve Source: Gerald Eve Million sq ft % 5.0 10 4.5 9 4.0 8 3.5 7 3.0 6 2.5 5 2.0 4 1.5 3 1.0 2 0.5 1 0 0 City Soho Q1 2017 Q1 2019 Q1 2018 Q3 2017 London Q2 2017 Q4 2017 Q3 2016 Q2 2019 Q3 2018 Victoria Q2 2016 Q2 2018 Q4 2016 Q4 2018 Fitzrovia Midtown Southbank Shoreditch Paddington Marylebone Canary Wharf Knightsbridge Canary Wharf Southbank Covent Garden East Five year average Mayfair & St James’s West King’s Cross & Euston Farringdon & Clerkenwell Occupier confidence remains despite slow start to the year Premiums paid on larger floor plates due to limited grade A availability Following a slow start to the year, leasing activity picked up during the second quarter, where 3.6 million sq ft was taken, The high volume of leasing activity, as well as some conversion which is in line with the five year average. of office stock to other uses, has led to a fall in the availability rate to 4.9%. In 2019, the availability rate fell in 9 of our 15 markets, Despite the uncertainty surrounding Brexit, and the threat of and as a result, occupiers are having to pay a premium on larger a “no-deal” scenario increasing, the finance & banking sector floor plates where available. displayed its confidence in the London market and accounted for 29% of acquisitions over the last six months. Notably the The development pipeline will help ease the supply squeeze with European Bank for Reconstruction and Development signed a 11.4 million sq ft currently under construction. However 43% of pre-let to take 365,000 sq ft at 5 Bank Street in Canary Wharf, this space has already been let, and the majority of the remaining whilst in the City, Brewin Dolphin & Co took 114,000 sq ft at 25 available space is expected to be taken as the developments Cannon Street. The demand from this sector has overwhelmingly move nearer to completion. A large increase in London’s been driven by lease events, however the Fintech sector is availability rate is therefore unlikely. increasingly becoming an area of growth for financial service firms across London. Development pipeline Media & Technology occupiers have also been active and continue Source: Gerald Eve to be one of the main drivers of occupier demand across the capital, accounting for 19% of deals in 2019 so far. The largest deal Million sq ft from this sector was by G-Research, which signed the first pre-let 8 at One Soho Place, taking 103,000 sq ft. Derwent’s development 7 only began construction in Q1 2019, highlighting the strong occupier demand for new space. The ability to recruit and retain 6 the best talent has led to occupiers targeting high quality office 5 space and over the last 12 months, 48% of lettings were for new 4 space, compared to the five year average of 39%. 3 Serviced office providers accounted for 14% of activity in the first 2 half of the year, with WeWork particularly active taking 255,000 sq 1 ft across the capital. The increase in offering from serviced office 0 providers has lured smaller firms that might previously have signed 2011 2017 2013 2012 2021 2019 2015 2016 2018 2014 2010 2020 conventional deals elsewhere, and as a result, the availability rate 2009 for smaller offices has gradually increased since 2015. Completed Under construction let Under construction available EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 3 REPURPOSING RETAIL – OXFORD STREET 500,000 270 15,000 pedestrians through buses per hour taxi pick up/set downs Oxford Circus per day per day 10 of top 24 60 million History TfL’s pedestrian collision Estimated increase Debenhams – 1870 hot spots are on in footfall per annum John Lewis – 1864 t Oxford Stree with opening of House of Fraser – 1879 Elizabeth Line Selfridges – 1909 Marks & Spencer – 1930 4 LONDON MARKETS Potential impact on value The retail and casual dining sector is under pressure, with news of store closures and CVAs getting strong publicity. Retaining current rental income is difficult with many tenants demanding that landlords accommodate additional flexible payment plans or reductions. With a lack of new operators ready to occupy any vacant units, landlord options are somewhat limited. Such a negative outlook has placed retail at the bottom of most investor wish lists, although the release of surplus retail space, particularly on upper floors, could present opportunities for alternative uses. Value as single-let Value of re-geared retail block retail – with offices OFFICES £85 per sq ft + 4.25% £1,870 psf 5th 5th5th 5th5th 5th5th 5th 4th ALL4th4th RETAIL 4th4th 4th4th RETAIL 4th 3rd £253rd3rd per sq ft 3rd3rd £703rd3rd per sq ft 3rd 2nd 2nd2nd 2nd2nd 2nd2nd + 3.00% 2nd 1st 1st1st+ 3.25% 1st1st 1st1st 1st Ground GroundGround£720 psf GroundGround GroundGround£2,200 psf Ground Basement BasementBasement BasementBasement BasementBasement Basement 326% 20% 53% increase in online reduction in increase in CVAs in 2018 transactions since 2008 floorspace expected by West End retailers in the next decade TO LET 16% -6.0% 2.6% of all transactions Average annual capital office availability rate are now online value decline for high in Marylebone street retail over the next three years REPURPOSING RETAIL – OXFORD STREET 5 LIFE SCIENCES IN LONDON Key life sciences locations across London The Francis Crick Institute, Imperial College London’s Campus, The Cube, King’s Cross & Euston White City East London Bringing together 1,500 scientists and Co-locating researchers, businesses and A post-incubator scientific research & support staff, with a focus on finding new higher education partners on a 25-acre development facility in Dagenham, ways to treat, diagnose and prevent a site, White City Place is fast becoming East London. range of illnesses. the centre of the emerging life science cluster in West London. 6 LONDON MARKETS London has a long history as a centre for In early 2019, the British Library signed a development agreement with Stanhope plc and Mitsui Fudosan UK Ltd to advancement in medicine and biology and develop plans to build a 100,000 sq ft extension to the Grade I together with Oxford and Cambridge, forms listed building. The agreement is the next stage in the Library’s the Golden Triangle, a global hub for life plans to develop its 2.8 acre site to the north of the Library at sciences. The Mayor of London has given his St Pancras, next door to the Francis Crick Institute, which will house a new headquarters for the national institute for data support to different sectors working together science and artificial intelligence, The Alan Turing Institute. to solve healthcare challenges, including exploring the safe use of health data for This development will be facilitated by the construction of research, supporting increased investment to extensive commercial space for organisations and companies seeking to locate in the heart of the Knowledge Quarter, an area allow innovative life sciences firms to grow, supported by MedCity and at the intersection of learning, data and enabling new life science developments to science and biomedical research. expand across London. There are also new plans proposing the creation of a thriving life Advances in medicine and global demographic trends point sciences centre at the heart of Whitechapel. The presence of a to an overall expansion of the life sciences industry. Global life sciences cluster would be a powerful incentive for attracting healthcare expenditure is expected to have increased by 24% new start-ups and other innovative and dynamic enterprises to between 2015 and 2020. At the same time, the pace of change the area. driven by technology, big data and personalised therapies creates unprecedented opportunities in life sciences. Post-Brexit, the life science sector is set to become increasingly The strength of these fundamentals implies increasing more important to economic growth in the UK leading to a demand for life sciences space. greater demand for space. At the end of 2018, GammaDelta Therapeutics became the latest life sciences company to take With a unique ecosystem combining a rich network of world- space at White City Place, joining pharmaceutical giant Novartis, class universities, renowned research centres, healthcare which recently announced plans to locate their UK headquarters providers, medical charities, innovative small businesses to the site. and global industry players, London is highly attractive for investment in life sciences. London’s life sciences sector now GammaDelta Therapeutics will be taking approximately has over 1,300 companies, employs over 60,000 and has an 12,000 sq ft of office and lab space, joining fellow innovators annual turnover of £14.4 bn. This covers biotech R&D, Autolus and Synthace in White City Place and OpenCell, healthcare, medical and optical equipment and Rebelbio, and Blenheim Chalcot. Other tenants at White City pharmaceutical manufacture. Place include the Yoox Net-a-Porter technology centre and the pioneering tech ‘scale-ups’ Attention Seekers and Arts Alliance Media. With a unique ecosystem combining a rich network of world-class universities, renowned research centres, healthcare providers, medical charities, innovative small businesses and global industry players, London is highly attractive for investment in life sciences.
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