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REAL ESTATE July 2020

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REAL ESTATE July 2020 LISTED MARKETS – REAL ESTATE July 2020 Leo Zielinski Partner Tel. +44 (0)7980 809031 [email protected] John Rodgers Partner Tel. +44 (0)7810 307422 [email protected] Will Strachan Partner Tel. +44 (0)7929 885859 [email protected] Lloyd Davies We track the share price movement and regulatory announcements Partner of 57 real estate owning listed entities (“Gerald Eve tracked index”). Tel. +44 (0)7767 311254 A summary of the Gerald Eve tracked index in terms of GAV, NAV, [email protected] LTV, Dividend, Share Price, Market Cap, Discount/Premium to NAV and their respective weekly movement is attached. Lorenzo Solazzo Data Analyst We provide a comparison to share price data from 3 February 2020 Tel. +44 (0)783 309 5582 [email protected] (pre-Covid-19 level) to present day to demonstrate the impact across certain entities as a direct result of Covid-19. James Brown Surveyor As at 30 of June, the Gerald Eve tracked index is currently down 30% to pre- Tel. +44 (0)7464 656563 Covid-19 level, under-performing the FTSE350 which is slowly recovering and is [email protected] now down 16%. The tracked listed REITs share price decreased on average 3% since 1 June 2020 (March: -25%, April: +6%, May: -3%). To provide context around the share price movement, the average discount to NAV is currently 31% against 3% pre-Covid-19. It is unsurprising to note that specialist sector entities across Industrial, Healthcare and Supermarkets have out-performed the REIT universe relative to other strategies within the Gerald Eve tracked index. Clearly, there are variations across the various sectors/strategies which we highlight in more detail within this report. Share price impact from 3 February 2020 Supermarket 3% (pre-Covid-19 level) to present day Source: Gerald Eve Research/Publicly Available Information -2% Healthcare -3% Industrial -28% Alternative Sector/ Long Income -30% Gerald Eve Tracked Index -34% Mixed Strategies (Excluding -36% London Strategies Supermarket Strategies) -65% -52% Retail Strategies -16% FTSE 350 -70% -60% -50% -40% -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% geraldeve.com Top 5 Biggest Risers and Fallers between 1 June 2020 and 30 June 2020 Risers Share Share price Fallers Share Share price price relative to NAV price relative to NAV gain as at 30 June 2020 fall as at 30 June 2020 1 RDI REIT PLC (RDI) +17% 55.5% Discount 1 Intu Properties PLC (INTU) -68% 98.8% Discount 2 Stenprop Ltd (STP) +14% 15.8% Discount 2 Capital & Regional PLC (CAL) -35% 76.5% Discount 3 Panther Securities PLC (PNS) +14% 52.3% Discount 3 BMO Commercial Property Trust Ltd (BCPT) -20% 51.9% Discount 4 Ediston Property Investment Company PLC (EPIC) +13% 43.9% Discount 4 Schroder Real Estate Investment Trust Ltd (SREI) -18% 49.3% Discount 5 Harworth Group PLC (HWG) +13% 33.8% Discount 5 Shaftesbury PLC (SHB) -17% 38.8% Discount Top 5 Biggest Risers and Fallers since February (pre-Covid-19) Risers Share Share price Fallers Share Share price price relative to NAV price relative to NAV gain as at 30 June 2020 fall as at 30 June 2020 1 Civitas Social Housing PLC (CSH) +11% 2.2% Premium 1 Intu Properties PLC (INTU) -90% 98.8% Discount 2 Atlantic Leaf Properties Ltd (ALP) +10% 26.2% Discount 2 Newriver Reit PLC (NRR) -67% 68.8% Discount 3 Tritax Big Box Reit PLC (BBOX) +5% 3.4% Discount 3 Hammerson PLC (HMSO) -65% 86.6% Discount 4 Supermarket Income REIT PLC (SUPR) +3% 14.7% Premium 4 Capital & Regional PLC (CAL) -64% 76.5% Discount 5 Assura PLC (AGR) +1% 45.4% Premium 5 Town Centre Securities PLC (TOWN) -57% 73.2% Discount * NAV may not be reflective of recent mergers/acquisitions/disposals and only reflect those reported from RNS statements. As such these figures are a guide only. All data reported has been collected from publicly available sources and therefore we cannot guarantee its accuracy. Source: Gerald Eve Research/Publicly available Information A comprehensive analysis of the Gerald Eve Tracked Index can be viewed in the Listed Entities Report at the back of this newsletter. Q2 (to June 2020) rent collection averaged 74% across the Gerald Eve Tracked Index Source: Goodbody/Gerald Eve Research/Publicly Available Information % 100 80 60 40 20 0 ) LXI REIT PLC (LXI) Stenprop Ltd (STP) SEGRO PLC (SGRO) Shaftesbury PLC (SHB Regional REIT Ltd (RGL) Newriver REIT PLC (NRR) Palace Capital PLC (PCA) Hammerson PLC (HMSO) Circle Property PLC (CRC) Custodian REIT PLC (CREI) AEW UK REIT PLC (AEWU) Intu pROPERTIES plc (INTU) Warehouse REIT PLC (WHR) Capital & Regional PLC (CAL) Secure Income REIT PLC (SIR) McKay Securities PLC (MCKS) Urban Logistics REIT PLC (SHED) Tritax Big Box REIT PLAC (BBOX) Atlantic Leaf Properties Ltd (ALP) Great Portland Estates Plc (GPOR) Londonmetric Property PLC (LMP) Alternative Income REIT PLC (AIRE) Picton Property Income Ltd (PCTN) Primary Health Properties PLC (PHP) Town Centre Securities PLC (TOWN) Supermarket Income REIT PLC (SUPR) BMO Real Estate Investments Ltd (BREI) BMO Commercial Property Trust Ltd (BCPT) Triple Point Social Housing REIT PLC (S0HO) Ediston Property Investment Company PLC (EPIC) Standard Life Investments Property Income Trust Ltd (SLI) Industrial Diversified Mixed Strategies Specialist / Alternative Asset Retail London Stratgeies * We will report further around the June quarter day rent collection once more data is available. Latest reported figures have been used in the creation of this graph. Rent collection figures change daily and therefore may not be accurate at the date of publication and therefore this graph is indicative only. KEY EVENTS IN JUNE 2020 AMONGST THE GERALD EVE TRACKED INDEX INDUSTRIAL STRATEGIES The industrial sector REITs share price increased 5% across June and is 3% down from pre- Covid-19 levels, showing exceptional performance relative to other sectors/strategies. It’s no secret that the industrial and logistics sector has not only been relatively unscathed by the coronavirus crisis, but in many cases actively boosted by it. Shifts towards online retail have been accelerated by the lockdown, and warehouses are set to be the major beneficiaries. Investor interest in the sector has continued its pre-crisis upward trajectory. • Warehouse REIT (WHR) announced on 6 July 2020 that they had successfully completed a £153m equity raise, ahead of the original £100m target in March. WHR report that this raise will be used to fund their near- term pipeline of acquisitions, stating that their total ‘firepower’ is now well in excess of £200m. • London Metric (LMP) reported Year-End results on the 10 June 2020. Contracted income was reported up 37% to £123.3m, assisted by the £455m Mucklow acquisition (amongst others). March quarter date rent collection recorded at 93%. NAV per share reported at 171.7p with current share price trading at NAV. Post year-end LMP have acquired £85m of assets including long income assets let to Kwik Fit and Euro Garages, an urban logistics unit let to Ocado and five supermarkets via a S&L with Waitrose. • Stenprop Limited (STP) – the company continues to deliver its transition plan to be wholly Multi Let Industrial (MLI) / Urban Logistics by March 2022 with currently around two thirds of its portfolio weighted to industrial vs 46% the previous year. STP reported Year-End results on the 12 June 2020. At 31 May 2020, 82% of the portfolio’s total rent invoiced for the March 2020 quarter date has been collected. Total dividend for the year ended 31 March 2020 of 6.75 pence per share (2019: 6.75 pence per share). NAV per share of 139p with share price currently trading at a c.16% discount. • SEGRO (SGRO) announced the acquisition of Perivale Park for £202.5m NIY 3.5% and raised £680m via a share placing and retail offer. SEGRO also announced the sale of City Park Vienna to Nuveen Real Estate for €65m concluding SEGRO’s presence in Austria, in line with the Group’s strategy. The sheds vs retail divergence couldn’t be more clearly shown through the share price performance (rebased from Feb 2016) of SEGRO vs Hammerson as below: Hammerson vs SEGRO – Share price (rebased from Feb’16) Source: Gerald Eve Research, Publicly Available Information Index = 100 250 200 150 100 50 0 Feb ‘16 Sept ‘16 Apr ‘17 Nov‘17 Jun‘18 Jan‘19 Aug‘19 Mar’20 geraldeve.com MIXED STRATEGIES Mixed sector/strategy portfolios are down on average 34% from pre-Covid-19 levels. In our view certain mid-cap entities have been harshly written down considering strong rent collection performance since February relative to other strategies and their respective asset sector weightings. It is unsurprising to note Private Equity are circling some of these mid-cap listed entities given the significant share price falls since February and the heavy discounts to NAV. Apollo’s proposed acquisition of the entire share capital of Atlantic Leaf, Tristan Capital’s acquisition of 13.2% of share capital of McKay Securities and Starwood’s acquisition of 29.4% of the share capital in RDI are recent examples. We expect this trend to continue into H2 with further M&A and consolidation. • McKay Securities (MCKS) reported Year-End results on the 9 June 2020. Portfolio valuation of £510m (March 2019: £482.7m). MCKS has minimal retail or leisure asset exposure in their portfolio with 77% weighted to offices and 18% to industrial. Total dividend for the year of 7.2p per share (March 2019: 10.2p), reduced by 29.4%. NAV per share of 329p with share price currently trading at a c.45% discount. Tristan Capital Partners are now a 13.2% shareholder. • Atlantic Leaf Properties Limited (ALP) – Apollo have announced the proposed acquisition of the entire share capital in ALP for approximately £152m or 80.5 pence per share representing a premium of over 33% against 60.53 pence per share prior to the statement, which reflects a c.22% discount to last reported NAV.
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