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Addis Ababa University School of Graduate Studies Faculity of Technology ADDIS ABABA UNIVERSITY SCHOOL OF GRADUATE STUDIES FACULITY OF TECHNOLOGY FLOOD FREQUENCY ANALYSIS FOR LOWER AWASH SUBBASIN [TRIBUTARIES FROM NORTHERN WOLLO HIGH LANDS] USING SWAT 2005 MODEL A thesis submitted to the School of Graduate Studies of Addis Ababa University in partial fulfillment of the Degree of Masters of Science in Civil Engineering (Major in Hydraulic Engineering) By Yidenkachew Argaw Addis Ababa Ethiopia JUNE, 2008 ADDIS ABABA UNIVERSITY SCHOOL OF GRADUATE STUDIES FACULITY OF TECHNOLOGY FLOOD FREQUENCY ANALYSIS FOR LOWER AWASH SUBBASIN [TRIBUTARIES FROM NORTHERN WOLLO HIGH LANDS] USING SWAT 2005 MODEL A thesis submitted to the school of Gradute Studies of AddisAbaba University in partial fulfillment of the Degree of Masters of Science in Hydraulics Engineering By Yidenkachew Argaw Approval by Board of Examiners ---------------------------------------------------- ------------------ Chairman (department of graduate committee) Signature ---------------------------------------------------- ------------------ Advisor Signature ---------------------------------------------------- ------------------ Internal Examiner Signature ---------------------------------------------------- ------------------ External Examiner Signature ACKNOWLEDGEMENT It is difficult to single out a few people from the many who contribute to this research project. My first thanks therefore go to everybody who gives their contribution to this research work. I am thankful to my family for their great support at all the time and for giving me a word of confidence every once in a while, without their support the research work would be impossible. My sincere appreciation goes to my advisor Dr.Yilma Seleshi (Instructor in AdissAbaba University) and my friend Mr.Gedion Tsegaye (Hydro geologist and GIS expert in Hal crow at Awash Basin Flood Protection Project) for their continuous Support and Advice. The data receipt used in this study , from Ethiopian Ministry of Water Resource ,Ethiopian Meteorological Service Agency and Halcrow ;Awash Basin Flood Protection Project is gratefully acknowledged. Contacts from the Halcrow, Awash Basin Flood Protection Project, were very instrumental in this modeling effort as Halcrow provided Land use map, DEM (57m resolution) that formed the basis for model inputs. I TABLE OF CONTENTS ACKNOWLEDGEMENT---------------------------------------------------------------------I TABLE OF CONTENTS----------------------------------------------------------------------II LIST OF FIGURES----------------------------------------------------------------------------VI LIST OF TABLES-----------------------------------------------------------------------------IX ABSTRACT------------------------------------------------------------------------------------XI 1. GENERAL INTRODUCTION-----------------------------------------------------------1 1.1Objective---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------2 1.2 Statement of the Problem ------------------------------------------------------------------2 2. DESCRIPTION OF THE STUDY AREA---------------------------------------------6 2.1 Location------------------------------------------------------------------------------ --------6 2.2 Physiographic--------------------------------------------------------------------------------8 2.3 Geomorphology-----------------------------------------------------------------------------9 2.4 Altitude and Slopes------------------------------------------------------------------------10 2.5 Climate --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------13 2.6 Rainfall--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------13 2.7 Thermal Zones-----------------------------------------------------------------------------14 2.8 Agro–Ecological Zones-------------------------------------------------------------------15 2.9 Agriculture----------------------------------------------------------------------------------18 2.9.1Change in Basin Irrigated Agriculture since 1989-----------------------------------18 3 LITERATURE REVIEW-----------------------------------------------------------------20 3.1 Introduction--------------------------------------------------------------------------------20 II 3.2 Formulation of Hydrological Processes-------------------------------------------------22 3.5 Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) Version 2005----------------------------25 3.5.1Previous Applications of SWAT-------------------------------------------------------29 4 MATERIAL AND METHODS----------------------------------------------------------31 4.1 Model Description-------------------------------------------------------------------------31 4.2 AVSWAT Model Approach--------------------------------------------------------------32 4.2.1Weather Generator------------------------------------------------------------------------34 4.2.2Watershed Delineation-------------------------------------------------------------------35 4.2.3 Determination of Hydrologic Response Units (HRUs) ----------------------------36 4.2.4 Surface Runoff Simulation--------------------------------------------------------------37 4.2.4.1 Surface Runoff Volume---------------------------------------------------------------37 4.2.4.2 Peak Discharge--------------------------------------------------------------------------38 4.2.4.3 Time of Concentration----------------------------------------------------------------40 4.2.4.4 Surface Runoff Lag--------------------------------------------------------------------42 4.2.5 Potential Evapotranspiration (PET) ---------------------------------------------------42 4.2.6 Soil Water - Percolation, Bypass Flow, and Lateral Flow--------------------------43 4.2.7 Channel Routing-------------------------------------------------------------------------44 4.2.8 Flow Separation--------------------------------------------------------------------------46 4.3 Evaluation of Model Simulation ---------------------------------------------------------46 4.3.1 Model performance statistics-----------------------------------------------------------46 4.3.2 Calibration---------------------------------------------------------------------------------48 4.3.3 Validation----------------------------------------------------------------------------------49 4.4 AVSWAT Model Data Inputs and Analysis--------------------------------------------51 4.4.1 Inputs for Delineation of Stream Network------------------------------------------51 4.4.1.1 Digital Elevation Model (DEM) ----------------------------------------------------51 4.4.1.2 Digitized Stream Networks-----------------------------------------------------------53 4.4.2 Land Uses---------------------------------------------------------------------------------54 4.4.3 Soil Input----------------------------------------------------------------------------------59 4.4.4 Meteorological Records-----------------------------------------------------------------64 III 4.4.5 River Flow Data--------------------------------------------------------------------------66 4.5 Model Input File Generation Using the SWAT 2005 Arcview Interface (AVSWAT) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------67 4.6 Flood Frequency Estimation--------------------------------------------------------------68 4.6.1 Parameter and Quintile Estimation ----------------------------------------------------69 4.6.1.2 Parameter Estimation------------------------------------------------------------------70 4.6.1.3 Quantile Estimation--------------------------------------------------------------------71 4.6.2 Selection of Probability Distribution -------------------------------------------------71 4.6.2.1 Chi-Square Test------------------------------------------------------------------------72 4.6.2.2 Kolmogrov-Smirnov Test------------------------------------------------------------73 4.6.3 Procedure to select the Distribution---------------------------------------------------73 5 RESULTS AND DISCUSSIONS---------------------------------------------------------75 5.1 SWAT Hydrological Model Data Analysis and Results------------------------------75 5.1.1Flow Simulation for _Mille watershed-------------------------------------------------75 5.1.2 Flow Simulation for _Logiya watershed----------------------------------------------78 5.1.3 Base Flow Separation _Mille and Logiya watershed-------------------------------81 5.1.4 Sensitivity Analysis _ Mille and Logiya Watershed---------------------------------82 5.1.5 Flow Calibration for Mille and Logiya Sub watershed------------------------------84 5.1.6 Flow Validation for the Watersheds---------------------------------------------------92 5.2 Flood Frequency Analysis----------------------------------------------------------------97 5.2.1 Selection of Distribution----------------------------------------------------------------97 5.2.2 Descriptive Statistics Result------------------------------------------------------------98 5.2.3 Goodness of Fit Test---------------------------------------------------------------------98 5.2.4 Parameter Estimation--------------------------------------------------------------------99 5.2.5 Graphical Selection of Distribution---------------------------------------------------101 5.2.5.1 Q-Q Plot---------------------------------------------------------------------------------101 5.2.5.2 Probability Difference-----------------------------------------------------------------106 5.2.6
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