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Institutional Repository - Research Portal Dépôt Institutionnel - Portail De La Recherche Institutional Repository - Research Portal Dépôt Institutionnel - Portail de la Recherche University of Namurresearchportal.unamur.be THESIS / THÈSE DOCTEUR EN SCIENCES Etude de populations observées ou synthétiques de débris spatiaux depuis les données jusqu'aux modèles Author(s) - Auteur(s) : Petit, Alexis Award date: 2017 Awarding institution: SupervisorUniversite - deCo- NamurSupervisor / Promoteur - Co-Promoteur : Link to publication Publication date - Date de publication : Permanent link - Permalien : Rights / License - Licence de droit d’auteur : General rights Copyright and moral rights for the publications made accessible in the public portal are retained by the authors and/or other copyright owners and it is a condition of accessing publications that users recognise and abide by the legal requirements associated with these rights. • Users may download and print one copy of any publication from the public portal for the purpose of private study or research. • You may not further distribute the material or use it for any profit-making activity or commercial gain • You may freely distribute the URL identifying the publication in the public portal ? 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Bibliothèque Universitaire Moretus Plantin Download date: 08. oct.. 2021 UNIVERSITE´ DE NAMUR FACULTE´ DES SCIENCES DEPARTEMENT´ DE MATHEMATIQUE´ Etude´ de populations observ´eesou synth´etiquesde d´ebrisspatiaux depuis les donn´eesjusqu’aux mod`eles These` present´ ee´ par Alexis Petit pour l’obtention du grade de Docteur en Sciences Composition du Jury : Timoteo CARLETTI (President´ du Jury) Florent DELEFLIE Anne LEMAITRE (Promoteur) Alessandro ROSSI Thomas SCHILDKNECHT Septembre 2017 Graphisme de couverture : ©Presses universitaires de Namur ©Presses universitaires de Namur & Alexis Petit Rempart de la Vierge, 13 B-5000 Namur (Belgique) Toute reproduction d’un extrait quelconque de ce livre, hors des limites restrictives prevues´ par la loi, par quelque proced´ e´ que ce soit, et notamment par photocopie ou scanner, est strictement interdite pour tous pays. Imprime´ en Belgique ISBN : 978-2-87037-772-7 Dep´ otˆ legal´ : D/2017/1881/41 Etude´ de populations observ´eesou synth´etiquesde d´ebrisspatiaux depuis les donn´eesjusqu’aux mod`eles par Alexis Petit R´esum´e: Depuis le lancement du premier satellite, Spoutnik, en 1957, les acti- vit´esspatiales en orbite terrestre produisent des d´ebrisspatiaux qui me- nacent les satellites op´erationnelset les stations habit´ees.Ainsi, l’´etudeet la prise en charge pr´eventivedes populations de d´ebrisspatiaux sont deve- nues cruciales pour le bon d´eroulementdes activit´esspatiales. En particu- lier, notre capacit´e`aobserver et `asuivre les plus petits objets ´etantlimit´ee, il nous faut produire des mod`elescapables d’estimer l’ensemble des popu- lations de d´ebrisexistantes et d’´etudierleur ´evolutiondurant les prochaines d´ecennies. Cette th`eseest consacr´ee`ala mod´elisationde populations de d´ebrisspa- tiaux et `al’´etudede leur ´evolution. Les points cl´essont la propagation d’or- bite, la mod´elisationdes sources, et l’ajustement par rapport aux donn´ees d’observation. Le premier point a ´et´etrait´een d´eveloppantun logiciel, incluant les pro- pagateurs NIMASTEP et SYMPLEC, capable de propager l’orbite d’un objet en prenant en compte le g´eopotentiel,l’attraction de la Lune et du Soleil, la pression de radiation solaire avec l’effet de l’ombre de la Terre, et le freinage atmosph´erique.Un effort particulier a ´et´econsacr´e`al’impl´ementationdu freinage atmosph´erique(pour NIMASTEP uniquement) avec trois mod`eles de densit´eatmosph´erique(JB2008, DTM2013 et TD88) et `ala parall´elisation permettant d’utiliser plusieurs CPUs pour calculer un grand nombre d’or- bites en un temps raisonnable. Les second et troisi`emepoints ont ´et´etrait´es en impl´ementantun mod`elede fragmentation et en le calibrant en utili- sant les observations TLE. Pour r´epondreau troisi`emepoint, nous avons ´egalementintroduit le concept de population synth´etique.Cette technique de microsimulation appliqu´eeaux d´ebrisspatiaux permet de pond´ererune population simul´eepour r´eduirel’´ecartavec la population r´eelle. Study of the population observed or synthetic of space debris from the data to the models by Alexis Petit Abstract : Since the beginning of the space era, the space activities have created numerous debris in Earth orbit, which represent a threat for satellites and crews of space stations. The studies of populations of space debris represent a major issue for the space community. Indeed, the space operators are very iv interested in the risk of collision which depends on the density of debris at different altitudes and inclinations. The aim of this thesis is the dynamical simulation of populations of space debris. The key points are the orbit propagation, the model of sources, and the fitting of the models on the observational data. The first key point is the improvement of the propagators (NIMASTEP and SYMPLEC) which include the computation of the geopotential, the at- traction of the Moon and the Sun, the solar radiation pressure with the effect of the Earth umbra, and now, the atmospheric drag (for NIMASTEP only). We have implemented three atmospheric density models (JB2008, DTM2013 and TD88) and checked their ability to compute an orbit with accuracy by comparison with the observations TLE. Moreover, we have parallelized the code to use several CPUs in order to compute numerous orbits in a reaso- nable time. The second and third points consist of using the historical ob- servations TLE to calibrate a fragmentation model that gives the fragments created by the breakup of a satellite or an upper-stage. Thus, we are able to simulate the historical population of space debris with more agreement with the observational data available. We end up with the introduction of the concept of synthetic population, a technique of microsimulation weigh- ting our simulated population to reduce the discrepancy with the real po- pulation. These` de doctorat en Sciences (Ph.D. thesis in Sciences) Date : 13/10/2017 Departement´ de Mathematique´ Promoteur (Advisor) : Anne LEMAITRE Remerciements Cette these` n’est pas le fruit de quatre annees´ de travail mais plutotˆ d’au moins une bonne vingtaine d’annees´ de passion pour l’astronomie, la phy- sique et les sciences en gen´ eral.´ Ainsi je pense qu’il faut que je remercie avant tout ma grand-mere` pour l’abonnement a` Astronomie Pratique qui m’a donne´ quelques bases avant d’attaquer quelques annees´ plus tard Celestial Dyna- mics, Chaoticity and Dynamics of Celestial Systems sur les plages du Sud Ouest. Entre temps, il a fallu me soutenir pendant mes etudes´ (que certains qualifie- raient de longues). Un long chemin de decouvertes´ entre physique, histoire des sciences (Alexis Clairaut je ne t’oublie pas), et systemes` dynamiques. Je remercie donc ma mere` et mes grand-parents pour avoir et´ e´ toujours derriere` moi quoi qu’il arrive. Ce travail est aussi le resultat´ de rencontres. J’ai eu la chance de decouvrir´ ce metier´ avec des personnes aux qualites´ humaines sans pareil (les qualites´ scientifiques vont egalement´ de soi). Je pense tout d’abord a` Anne Lemaˆıtre. Alors que je prenais goutˆ aux transformees´ de Lie lors de mon stage de M1 avec Jean Souchay, j’ai contacte´ Teo´ (alors a` la teteˆ de Naxys) pour savoir si a` tout hasard il y a avait un quelconque moyen de faire une these` a` Namur (que je decouvrais).´ Il m’a rapidement redirige´ vers toi. Tu m’as propose´ de candidater au FNRS, et c¸a a marche´ ! Me voila` alors parti pour quatre folles annees´ en Belgique. Un comite´ de these` s’est constitue´ et m’a accompagne´ au cours de mes recherches. Ainsi je tiens a` remercier tres` chaleureusement Florent Deleflie, Alessandro Rossi, et Timoteo Carletti pour leur disponibi- lite,´ leurs precieux´ conseils, et leur gentillesse. Et un grand merci a` Thomas Schildknecht qui m’a fait l’honneur de participer a` mon jury. N’oublions pas mes collaborateurs, Daniel Casanova toujours present´ a` mes cotˆ es´ depuis le debut´ de la these,` memeˆ depuis Saragosse, et Morgane Du- mont qui m’a initie´ aux mysteres` des populations synthetiques.´ De tres` nom- breuses publications nous attendent j’espere.` Florent et Delphine, nous avons partage´ dej´ a` de nombreuses conferences,´ je vous rejoins maintenant avec un grand plaisir (non ce n’est pas seulement pour le cafe´ chez Mme Ballenghein). Enfin, pendant deux ans j’ai eu le plaisir de partager mon bureau avec une cosmologiste adepte de la permaculture nommee´ Sandrine Schlogel. Nous avons mis Rosetta en orbite autour d’une comete` d’un nouveau type (95% de polystyrene` et 5% de papier craft), accompagnee´ de Philae toujours bien vii viii REMERCIEMENTS coince´ dans son cratere.` Je pense egalement´ aux membres du departement´ de Mathematique,´ aux repas partages´ en salle cafe,´ aux soupers de these,` aux bieres,` aux drinks, aux rallyes maths, aux dˆıners d’equipe´ de mecanique´ celeste´ chez Anne, aux expeditions´ a` Bruxelles pour ecouter´ les conferences´ de l’Academie´ avec Sandrine et Eve-Aline, a` tous ces bons moments qui n’appar- tiennent qu’a` Namur. Benoˆıt, Magda, Manon, Mara, Anne-Sophie, Arnaud, je vous quitte avec regrets, mais je sais que vous ferez vivre la mecanique´ celeste´ a` Namur et j’espere` vous revoir en conference.´ Un grand merci egalement´ a` Lisa qui en me faisant entrer en douce a` la fameuse AnacondaCon a introduit une bonne dose de data science dans cette these.` J’ai une pensee´ egalement´ pour mes amis qui m’ont apporte´ tant de bonnes choses. Camille, Cindy, Jean, Etienne, Flavien, Marie... c¸a y est vous pouvez dire que vous connaissez un docteur en astronomie ! C’est pas encore la NASA mais presque.
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