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Climate Vulnerability Assessment and Management Report Is a Document of the Borrower Anhui Huangshan Xin’an River Ecological Protection and Green Development Project Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment and Management – Technical Report August 2019 (for ADB Final) CURRENCY EQUIVALENTS (as of Aug 2 2019) Currency unit – yuan (CNY) CNY1.00 = €0.1306 €1.00 = CNY7.6576 WEIGHTS AND MEASURES oC degree centigrade m2 square meter dB decibel m3/a cubic meter per annum g gram m3 cubic meter ha hectare m3/d cubic meter per day km kilometer m3/s cubic meter per second km2 square kilometer mg/l milligram per liter kW kilowatt mg/m3 milligram per cubic meter L liter mm millimeter LAeq Equivalent continuous A-weighted sound t metric ton MW megawattpressure level t/d metric ton per day m meter t/a ton per annum tCO2e Carbon ton equivalent NOTE In this report, “€” refers to Euro This climate vulnerability assessment and management report is a document of the borrower. The views expressed herein do not necessarily represent those of ADB’s Board of Directors, Management, or staff, and may be preliminary in nature. Your attention is directed to the “terms of use” section of this website. In preparing any country program or strategy, financing any project, or by making any designation of or reference to a particular territory or geographic area in this document, the Asian Development Bank does not intend to make any judgments as to the legal or other status of any territory or area. TABLE OF CONTENTS Page 1 INTRODUCTION 1 1.1 Climate Change, Risk Management, and Development 3 1.2 Climatic Background of Anhui Province 3 1.3 Objective of Climate Change Risk Assessment in this Report 4 2 Climate vulnerabilities and risks 4 2.1 Urban/River flood hazard 5 2.2 Extreme heat hazard 6 2.3 Water scarcity hazard 6 2.4 Wildfire hazard 6 3 Historical Weather and Climate Information 6 3.1 Historical Climate Data Source 6 3.2 Temperature Changes in Huangshan City 7 3.3 Precipitation Changes in Huangshan City 8 3.4 Other Climate Changes in Huangshan City 9 4 Multi-decadal Climate Change Projections 10 4.1 Climate Change Projection Dataset 10 4.2 Climate Change Projection in Temperature 10 4.3 Climate Change Projection in Precipitation 12 5 Potential Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation Options for the Huangshan Project 13 5.1 General Principles 13 5.2 Potential Climate Change Impacts on the Huangshan Project 14 5.3 Climate Change Adaptation Options for Huangshan Project 15 6 Climate Mitigation for Huangshan Project 22 6.1 Innovative Low carbon Engineering Measures 22 6.1.1 Smart carbon efficiency during construction stage 22 6.1.2 Energy efficiency measures and Impacts to Climate Change 22 6.2 Carbon Sequestration 23 6.2.1 Carbon sequestration of vegetation and crops 23 6.2.2 Influence of Pine Forest Disease Prevention on Carbon Sequestration 25 7 Summary of Climate Finance 26 7.1 Climate Adaptation Cost Estimate 26 7.2 Climate Mitigation Cost Estimate 28 8 Risks and Opportunities 31 LIST OF TABLES Page Table 1 : Summary of climate vulnerabilities and risks in Huangshan City 4 Table 2 : Decadal changes in annual average, maximum and minimum temperature versus 1960s 7 Table 3 : Changes of Annual Maximum, Minimum and Mean Temperature in Huangshan over 2020 to 2100 versus 1960 to 2015 12 Table 4 : Changes of Annual Precipitation in Huangshan over 2020 to 2100 versus 1960 to 2015 13 Table 5 : Summary of Potential Climate Change Impacts 14 Table 6 : Potential Impacts 14 Table 7 : Adaptation Measures 16 Table 8 : Application of Sponge City Facilities 17 Table 9 : Carbon Bio-sequestration by Different Types of Land 23 Table 10 : Preliminary Calculation of Carbon Sink from Vegetation Plantation and Improved Croplands 24 Table 11 : Determining eligible climate adaptation activities in the project through Three- step Method 26 Table 12 : Detailed cost estimate of climate adaptation 27 Table 13 : Detailed cost estimate of climate mitigation 29 Table 14 : Summary of Recommendations 33 LIST OF FIGURES Page Figure 1: Yangtze River and its floodplain 1 Figure 2 : Hydrogeological position of Huangshan relative to Yangtze River basin and Xin’an River basin 2 Figure 3: Surface water system in Huangshan area 3 Figure 4 : Hazard map of water scarcity, cyclone and extreme heat in Anhui Province 5 Figure 5 : Hazard map of wildfire, earthquake and landslide in Anhui Province 5 Figure 6 : Hazard map of urban, river and coastal flood in Anhui Province 5 Figure 7 : Historical Decadal Average and Annual Mean Temperature (Tmean), Maximum Temperature (Tmax) and Minimum Temperature (Tmin) in Huangshan during 1960 to 2015 7 Figure 8 : Monthly Average Temperature in Huangshan during 1960 to 1989 and 1990 to 2015 8 Figure 9 : Decadal Average and Annual Precipitation (PRE), Rain Days and Max Daily Precipitation (P-MaxDay) in Huangshan during 1960 to 2015 8 Figure 10 : Monthly Precipitation in Huangshan during 1960 to 1989 and 1990 to 2015 9 Figure 11 : Changes of annual hot days (daily max temperature ≥ 35 ℃) and cold days (daily min temperature ≤ 0 ℃) in Huangshan over 1981 to 2018 versus 1953 to 1980 9 Figure 12 : Changes of annual days with heavy rainfalls (daily precipitation ≥ 50mm) in Huangshan over 2000 to 2018 versus the average of 1980 to 1999 10 Figure 13 : Projected Annual Maximum, Minimum and Average Temperature in Huangshan during 2020 to 2100 11 Figure 14 : Projected Annual Precipitation in Huangshan during 2020 to 2100 12 Figure 15 : Stone cage wetland design 20 Figure 16 : Terraced Riverside wetland design 20 Figure 17: Flood in Huangshan city 13 July 2019 by Xinhuanet.com 31 Figure 18: Development with enhanced local activities/water sport 32 Figure 19: Enhanced interconnected green corridor with green landscaping node and walkable trail/cycle track linkage 32 LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS ADB Asian Development Bank BOD Biochemical Oxygen Demand COD Chemical Oxygen Demand CNY Chinese Yuan EA Executive Agency EIA Environment Impact Assessment EMP Environmental Management Plan EUR Euro FSR Feasibility Study Report GAP Gender Action Plan GDP Gross Domestic Product GIS Geographic Information System HAC Huangshan Agriculture Commission HDRC Huangshan Development and Reform Commission HFB Huangshan Finance Bureau HMG Huangshan Municipality Government HPMO Huangshan Municipal Project Management Office HTIC Huangshan Trust and Investment Corporation IA Implementation Agency ICT Information Communication Technology IEE Initial Environmental Examination LID Low Impact Development LIBOR London Interbank Offered Rate MIS Management Information System MOU Memorandum of Understanding PLG Project Leading Group PMO Project Management Office PSA Poverty and Social Analysis Report QCPMO Qimen County Project Management Office TRTA Project Preparatory Technical Assistance PRA Procurement Risk Assessment PRC People’s Republic of China RP Resettlement Plan RR River Rehabilitation SCPMO She County Project Management Office SDAP Social Development Action Plan SIA Social Impact Assessment SPS Safeguards Policy Statement STFF Soil Test and Formulated Fertilization TA Technical Assistance TDPMO Tunxi District Project Management Office TNC The Nature Conservancy TN Total Nitrogen TP Total Phosphorus USD United States Dollar WWTP Wastewater Treatment Plant XCPMO Xiuning County Project Management Office XEDPB Xin’an River Basin Ecological Development and Protection Bureau YCPMO Yi County Project Management Office YREB Yangtze River Economic Belt TA-9311 PRC: Preparing Yangtze River Economic Belt Projects - Anhui Huangshan Xin’an River Ecological Protection and Green Development Project Climate Vulnerability Assessment and Management Report 1 INTRODUCTION 1 Huangshan, as part of the Yangtze River Economic Belt (YREB), is a prefecture-level municipality in the southern part of Anhui Province in eastern the People’s Republic of China’s (PRC) with a population of 1.5 million. It comprises three urban districts and four counties and has an area of 9,807 km2. Huangshan is a famous tourist destination in PRC, situated in the upstream region of the Xin’an River Basin. Rapid economic development, urbanization, intensive agriculture production, and the growth of tourism in the area have increased both environmental and ecological pressures across the Xin’an River Basin. As a result, maintaining the level of water quality in the upstream of Xin’an River with current management practices is growing increasingly difficult. Ecological protection of the Xin’an River in Huangshan will strengthen the water safety and livelihood of residents and improve sustainability of tourism and the region’s green development. 2 The YREB covers nine provinces and two specially administered municipalities. In 2014, it accounts for over 43% of the PRC population and freshwater resources; serves as the drinking water resource for 600 million people; and contributes about 42% of the PRC’s economic output.1 Given its economic significance, the YREB has been earmarked as one of the three key growth engines for the PRC’s development. Figure 1: Yangtze River and its floodplain 1 China Water Risk and the Foreign Economic Cooperation Office, 2016. Water-nomics of the Yangtze River Economic Belt: Strategies & recommendations for green development along the river. The Ministry of Environmental Protection of the PRC. Doc. No. 10-02118017 Rev.1 Page 1 TA-9311 PRC: Preparing Yangtze River Economic Belt Projects - Anhui Huangshan Xin’an River Ecological Protection and Green Development Project Climate Vulnerability Assessment and Management Report 3 The rapid economic growth in the YREB has been accompanied by increased water consumption,
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