Anhui Huangshan Xin’an River Ecological Protection and Green Development Project
Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment and Management – Technical Report
August 2019 (for ADB Final)
CURRENCY EQUIVALENTS (as of Aug 2 2019) Currency unit – yuan (CNY) CNY1.00 = €0.1306 €1.00 = CNY7.6576
WEIGHTS AND MEASURES oC degree centigrade m2 square meter dB decibel m3/a cubic meter per annum g gram m3 cubic meter ha hectare m3/d cubic meter per day km kilometer m3/s cubic meter per second km2 square kilometer mg/l milligram per liter kW kilowatt mg/m3 milligram per cubic meter L liter mm millimeter
LAeq Equivalent continuous A-weighted sound t metric ton MW megawattpressure level t/d metric ton per day m meter t/a ton per annum tCO2e Carbon ton equivalent
NOTE
In this report, “€” refers to Euro
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TABLE OF CONTENTS
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1 INTRODUCTION 1 1.1 Climate Change, Risk Management, and Development 3 1.2 Climatic Background of Anhui Province 3 1.3 Objective of Climate Change Risk Assessment in this Report 4 2 Climate vulnerabilities and risks 4 2.1 Urban/River flood hazard 5 2.2 Extreme heat hazard 6 2.3 Water scarcity hazard 6 2.4 Wildfire hazard 6 3 Historical Weather and Climate Information 6 3.1 Historical Climate Data Source 6 3.2 Temperature Changes in Huangshan City 7 3.3 Precipitation Changes in Huangshan City 8 3.4 Other Climate Changes in Huangshan City 9 4 Multi-decadal Climate Change Projections 10 4.1 Climate Change Projection Dataset 10 4.2 Climate Change Projection in Temperature 10 4.3 Climate Change Projection in Precipitation 12 5 Potential Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation Options for the Huangshan Project 13 5.1 General Principles 13 5.2 Potential Climate Change Impacts on the Huangshan Project 14 5.3 Climate Change Adaptation Options for Huangshan Project 15 6 Climate Mitigation for Huangshan Project 22 6.1 Innovative Low carbon Engineering Measures 22 6.1.1 Smart carbon efficiency during construction stage 22 6.1.2 Energy efficiency measures and Impacts to Climate Change 22 6.2 Carbon Sequestration 23 6.2.1 Carbon sequestration of vegetation and crops 23 6.2.2 Influence of Pine Forest Disease Prevention on Carbon Sequestration 25 7 Summary of Climate Finance 26 7.1 Climate Adaptation Cost Estimate 26 7.2 Climate Mitigation Cost Estimate 28 8 Risks and Opportunities 31
LIST OF TABLES
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Table 1 : Summary of climate vulnerabilities and risks in Huangshan City 4 Table 2 : Decadal changes in annual average, maximum and minimum temperature versus 1960s 7 Table 3 : Changes of Annual Maximum, Minimum and Mean Temperature in Huangshan over 2020 to 2100 versus 1960 to 2015 12 Table 4 : Changes of Annual Precipitation in Huangshan over 2020 to 2100 versus 1960 to 2015 13 Table 5 : Summary of Potential Climate Change Impacts 14 Table 6 : Potential Impacts 14 Table 7 : Adaptation Measures 16 Table 8 : Application of Sponge City Facilities 17 Table 9 : Carbon Bio-sequestration by Different Types of Land 23 Table 10 : Preliminary Calculation of Carbon Sink from Vegetation Plantation and Improved Croplands 24 Table 11 : Determining eligible climate adaptation activities in the project through Three- step Method 26 Table 12 : Detailed cost estimate of climate adaptation 27 Table 13 : Detailed cost estimate of climate mitigation 29 Table 14 : Summary of Recommendations 33
LIST OF FIGURES
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Figure 1: Yangtze River and its floodplain 1 Figure 2 : Hydrogeological position of Huangshan relative to Yangtze River basin and Xin’an River basin 2 Figure 3: Surface water system in Huangshan area 3 Figure 4 : Hazard map of water scarcity, cyclone and extreme heat in Anhui Province 5 Figure 5 : Hazard map of wildfire, earthquake and landslide in Anhui Province 5 Figure 6 : Hazard map of urban, river and coastal flood in Anhui Province 5 Figure 7 : Historical Decadal Average and Annual Mean Temperature (Tmean), Maximum Temperature (Tmax) and Minimum Temperature (Tmin) in Huangshan during 1960 to 2015 7 Figure 8 : Monthly Average Temperature in Huangshan during 1960 to 1989 and 1990 to 2015 8 Figure 9 : Decadal Average and Annual Precipitation (PRE), Rain Days and Max Daily Precipitation (P-MaxDay) in Huangshan during 1960 to 2015 8 Figure 10 : Monthly Precipitation in Huangshan during 1960 to 1989 and 1990 to 2015 9
Figure 11 : Changes of annual hot days (daily max temperature ≥ 35 ℃) and cold days (daily min temperature ≤ 0 ℃) in Huangshan over 1981 to 2018 versus 1953 to 1980 9 Figure 12 : Changes of annual days with heavy rainfalls (daily precipitation ≥ 50mm) in Huangshan over 2000 to 2018 versus the average of 1980 to 1999 10 Figure 13 : Projected Annual Maximum, Minimum and Average Temperature in Huangshan during 2020 to 2100 11 Figure 14 : Projected Annual Precipitation in Huangshan during 2020 to 2100 12 Figure 15 : Stone cage wetland design 20 Figure 16 : Terraced Riverside wetland design 20 Figure 17: Flood in Huangshan city 13 July 2019 by Xinhuanet.com 31 Figure 18: Development with enhanced local activities/water sport 32 Figure 19: Enhanced interconnected green corridor with green landscaping node and walkable trail/cycle track linkage 32
LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS ADB Asian Development Bank BOD Biochemical Oxygen Demand COD Chemical Oxygen Demand CNY Chinese Yuan EA Executive Agency EIA Environment Impact Assessment EMP Environmental Management Plan EUR Euro FSR Feasibility Study Report GAP Gender Action Plan GDP Gross Domestic Product GIS Geographic Information System HAC Huangshan Agriculture Commission HDRC Huangshan Development and Reform Commission HFB Huangshan Finance Bureau HMG Huangshan Municipality Government HPMO Huangshan Municipal Project Management Office HTIC Huangshan Trust and Investment Corporation IA Implementation Agency ICT Information Communication Technology IEE Initial Environmental Examination LID Low Impact Development LIBOR London Interbank Offered Rate MIS Management Information System MOU Memorandum of Understanding PLG Project Leading Group PMO Project Management Office PSA Poverty and Social Analysis Report QCPMO Qimen County Project Management Office TRTA Project Preparatory Technical Assistance PRA Procurement Risk Assessment PRC People’s Republic of China RP Resettlement Plan RR River Rehabilitation SCPMO She County Project Management Office SDAP Social Development Action Plan SIA Social Impact Assessment SPS Safeguards Policy Statement STFF Soil Test and Formulated Fertilization TA Technical Assistance TDPMO Tunxi District Project Management Office TNC The Nature Conservancy TN Total Nitrogen TP Total Phosphorus USD United States Dollar WWTP Wastewater Treatment Plant XCPMO Xiuning County Project Management Office XEDPB Xin’an River Basin Ecological Development and Protection Bureau YCPMO Yi County Project Management Office YREB Yangtze River Economic Belt
TA-9311 PRC: Preparing Yangtze River Economic Belt Projects - Anhui Huangshan Xin’an River Ecological Protection and Green Development Project Climate Vulnerability Assessment and Management Report
1 INTRODUCTION 1 Huangshan, as part of the Yangtze River Economic Belt (YREB), is a prefecture-level municipality in the southern part of Anhui Province in eastern the People’s Republic of China’s (PRC) with a population of 1.5 million. It comprises three urban districts and four counties and has an area of 9,807 km2. Huangshan is a famous tourist destination in PRC, situated in the upstream region of the Xin’an River Basin. Rapid economic development, urbanization, intensive agriculture production, and the growth of tourism in the area have increased both environmental and ecological pressures across the Xin’an River Basin. As a result, maintaining the level of water quality in the upstream of Xin’an River with current management practices is growing increasingly difficult. Ecological protection of the Xin’an River in Huangshan will strengthen the water safety and livelihood of residents and improve sustainability of tourism and the region’s green development.
2 The YREB covers nine provinces and two specially administered municipalities. In 2014, it accounts for over 43% of the PRC population and freshwater resources; serves as the drinking water resource for 600 million people; and contributes about 42% of the PRC’s economic output.1
Given its economic significance, the YREB has been earmarked as one of the three key growth engines for the PRC’s development.
Figure 1: Yangtze River and its floodplain
1 China Water Risk and the Foreign Economic Cooperation Office, 2016. Water-nomics of the Yangtze River Economic Belt: Strategies & recommendations for green development along the river. The Ministry of Environmental Protection of the PRC.
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3 The rapid economic growth in the YREB has been accompanied by increased water consumption, pollutant discharges, and ecosystem degradation, imposing economic, ecological and health-related risks, and threatening the PRC’s sustainable development. 2 The Government of the PRC has formulated the YREB development plan, 2016–2030, which stipulated the prioritization of ecological protection and promotion of green development as the guiding principle for the YREB development. The Asian Development Bank (ADB) and the Government of the PRC have agreed to adopt a framework approach, providing about 2.0 billion USD of funding in the YREB during 2018– 2020 to strategically program ADB’s lending support for development initiatives with priority given to the following four areas: (i) ecosystem restoration, environmental protection, and water resources management; (ii) green and inclusive industrial transformation; (iii) construction of an integrated multimodal transport corridor; and (iv) institutional strengthening and policy reform.
Figure 2 : Hydrogeological position of Huangshan relative to Yangtze River basin and Xin’an River basin
4 Xin’an River is an independent river system located within YREB, originating in Huangshan Municipality (Huangshan) in Anhui Province and passing through Hangzhou, the capital city of Zhejiang Province, before entering the East China Sea. The Xin’an River is 373 km, about 242 km of which is located at the upper reach in Huangshan before entering Qiandao Lake, the largest water body in Zhejiang Province. The Xin’an River is the main source of drinking water for the 10 million residents living in the urban and rural areas surrounding Qiandao Lake and Hangzhou. Xin’an River was selected as the first demonstration case to pilot the innovative trans-provincial ecological compensation (eco-compensation) mechanism for protecting ecosystem in the PRC. Good progress has been made during the initial two phases3 of the pilot water quality improvement as measured by
2 The Government of the PRC. 2016. Outline of the Yangtze River Economic Belt Development Plan, 2016–2030. Beijing. 3 The pilot implementation’s first phase (2012–2014) and second phase (2015–2017) were highly successful in exhibiting trans-provincial watershed management in the PRC.
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TA-9311 PRC: Preparing Yangtze River Economic Belt Projects - Anhui Huangshan Xin’an River Ecological Protection and Green Development Project Climate Vulnerability Assessment and Management Report the Anhui and Zhejiang provinces.
Lian R
Xin’an R
Heng R Xin’an R
ShuaishuiR Q iandao Lake (17.8km 3)
Figure 3: Surface water system in Huangshan area
5 This report describes the (i) observed and projected climate change in the Huangshan Municipality and (ii) potential climate change impacts and adaptation options for the project.
1.1 Climate Change, Risk Management, and Development 6 Climate change and variability poses risks for humans, investments, built infrastructures, and natural systems. Climate change risk management is an approach to identify, assess, and respond to the impacts of climate risks. Managing the risks of climate change involves socio-economic pathway as well as integration of adaptation, and mitigation measures in decision making that has implications for future generations, economies, and environments. Climate change adaptation refers to the process of adapting to the actual or expected climate and its impacts. Climate change is a threat to sustainable development, and the climate-resilient pathways are sustainable development trajectories. Climate-resilient pathways combine adaptation and mitigation measures to reduce climate change and its impacts.4
7 The purpose of climate change risk management is to ensure that the expected development outcomes., strategy strategic interventions, be it in policy and investments, can be achieved. Climate change risk management is an effective way of ensuring sustainability of development interventions.
1.2 Climatic Background of Anhui Province 8 In the SE of China beyond the Qinling Mountain Range, Anhui province lies in the monsoonal area of lower reach of Yangtze River. The northern area has a warm-temperate, semi-humid monsoonal climate while the southern area has a sub-tropical, humid monsoonal climate. The average annual temperature of Anhui is between 14 and 17 oC. The annual temperature averages below 15 oC in the northern area of the Huaihe River and the Dabie Mountain area, and only 7.8 oC on the top of Huangshan Mountain. Meanwhile, the average annual temperature of the area along
4 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. 2014. Summary for Policymakers. In: Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Part A: Global and Sectoral Aspects. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. pp. 1–32. Cambridge, United Kingdom; and New York, New York, United States of America: Cambridge University Press.
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TA-9311 PRC: Preparing Yangtze River Economic Belt Projects - Anhui Huangshan Xin’an River Ecological Protection and Green Development Project Climate Vulnerability Assessment and Management Report the Yangtze River and in South Anhui is higher than 16 oC. The rest of the province is between 15 oC and 16 oC; only two degrees centigrade difference between the northern and southern areas.
9 Compared with the climate in other parts of China, Anhui is characterized by rain concentrating in the hot season from June to August and a remarkable continental monsoonal climate in the same months. In addition, Anhui has a mild climate, abundant sunshine, distinctive seasons (warm spring, hot summer, cool fall and cold winter) and an obvious monsoon due to its geographical position.
1.3 Objective of Climate Change Risk Assessment in this Report 10 All ADB projects were screened for climate risks. A list of project outputs and contents is tabulated in Appendix 1. For the projects at “medium” or “high” risk, the climate risk and vulnerability assessment, evaluation of adaptation options, and co-financing arrangements are required by ADB during project preparation.
11 The climate change risk assessment for this project was aimed at (i) using the best science and evidence based data to understand the range of climate change and variability that might have on the project; (ii) understanding better the vulnerability of the project to the current climate; (iii) assessing— using a risk-based approach—what measures can be put in place now and in the future to increase the resilience of the project; and (d) minimizing the risk of significant climate change impacts.
2 Climate vulnerabilities and risks
12 Based on probabilistic algorithm, the World Bank Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery (GFDRR) has developed a conservative climate change screening tool, Thinkhazard5. The climate vulnerabilities and risks of Huangshan City are summarized in Table 2 and the hazard maps of Anhui Province are presented in Figure 4. The major/ medium to high level climate related risks of Huangshan are mainly from urban flood, extreme heat, water scarcity and wildfire. The other low level risks are from cyclone, land slide, earthquake, river flood and costal flood.
Table 1 : Summary of climate vulnerabilities and risks in Huangshan City
Risk Hazard Level Urban flood hazard (0.5m, 1 in 10 years) High Extreme heat hazard (32oC 1 in 5 years) High Water scarcity hazard (<500m3/c/yr, I in 5 years) Medium Wildfire hazard (FWI 30, 1 in 2 years) Medium Cyclone hazard Low Land slide hazard Low Earthquake hazard Very low River flood hazard (0.5m, 1 in 10 years) Very low Costal flood hazard Very low Data source: Think Hazard (http://thinkhazard.org/ )
5 Stuart Fraser, et al, 2017. Methodology report: Updated for ThinkHazard! Version 2. Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery, the World Bank. Doc. No. 10-02118017 Rev.1 Page 4
TA-9311 PRC: Preparing Yangtze River Economic Belt Projects - Anhui Huangshan Xin’an River Ecological Protection and Green Development Project Climate Vulnerability Assessment and Management Report
Figure 4 : Hazard map of water scarcity, cyclone and extreme heat in Anhui Province
Figure 5 : Hazard map of wildfire, earthquake and landslide in Anhui Province
Figure 6 : Hazard map of urban, river and coastal flood in Anhui Province
2.1 Urban/River flood hazard 13 According to the model, urban flood hazard in Huangshan is classified as high. This means that potentially damaging and life-threatening urban floods are expected to occur at least once in the next 10 years with an inundation depth of 0.5m. In view of the conservative algorithm of 0.5m of water depth, all major cities along the Yangtze River should be able to ameliorate such flooding conditions. Nevertheless, suitable adaptation measures should be factored into the project planning decisions, project design, and construction methods to ensure protection against urban flood hazard. Even though the river flood hazard is considered low, the river rehabilitation works of the project could help flood improvement in the long run.
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2.2 Extreme heat hazard 14 Extreme heat hazard in Huangshan City is classified as high. This means that prolonged exposure to extreme heat, resulting in heat stress, is expected to occur at least once in the next five years with a high temperature exceeding 32oC. According to the assessment report of the Intergovernmental panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 2013), continued emissions of greenhouse gases will cause further warming, and it is virtually certain that there will be more frequent hot temperature extremes over most land areas during the next fifty years. It would be prudent to design projects in Huangshan to be robust to global warming in the long-term.
2.3 Water scarcity hazard 15 Water scarcity in Huangshan is classified as medium from the probabilistic analysis. This means that there is up to a 20% chance of drought causing less than 500m3 of water per capita per year in the coming 10 years. Comparing the daily consumption of 180-320L in China, the potential impact of drought should lead to water conservation measures in all phases of the project in support of the project’s personnel and stakeholders, and implementation of the design of buildings and infrastructure. Project planning decisions, project design, and construction methods should take into account the level of drought hazard as climate change may exacerbate the present drought hazard level. It would be prudent to design projects in Huangshan to be robust to increased drought hazard and water scarcity in the long-term.
2.4 Wildfire hazard 16 According to the information provided by ThinkHazard tool, the wildfire hazard in Huangshan is classified as medium. This means that there is between a 10% and 50% chance of experiencing weather that could support a hazardous wildfire that may poses some risk of life and property loss in any given year. Based on this information, the impact of wildfire should be considered in the project, in particular during project design and construction. Project planning decisions, project design, construction methods and emergency response planning should take into account the level of wildfire hazard. Note that impacts on people and property can not only occur due to direct flame and radiation exposure but also due to ember storm and low-level surface fire.
3 Historical Weather and Climate Information 3.1 Historical Climate Data Source 17 The annual average temperature in Huangshan City is about 16°C. The monthly average temperature reaches the lowest in January at around 4°C and the highest in July at about 28°C. The annual average precipitation is around 1717mm. The precipitation of raining season (April to July) contributes to 55% of annual rainfall. The climate changes were analyzed based on the monitoring data in the Tunxi Meteorological Station (located at 118.17° E, 29.43° N) during 1960 to 2015.6 The station is located in a typical residential area along Xin’an River and its monitoring data could well represent the climate close to the most residents in Huangshan City.
18 The following climate parameters were calculated and summarized to present the long-term trend of climate changes: • Temperature (annual maximum, minimum and average temperature, monthly distribution); • Precipitation (annual precipitation, rain days and max daily precipitation, monthly distribution); • Extreme events, including hot days (daily max temperature ≥ 35 ℃), cold days (daily min
6 Data Source: The dataset of China Meteorological Administration (CMA, http://www.cma.gov.cn/en/) Doc. No. 10-02118017 Rev.1 Page 6
TA-9311 PRC: Preparing Yangtze River Economic Belt Projects - Anhui Huangshan Xin’an River Ecological Protection and Green Development Project Climate Vulnerability Assessment and Management Report
temperature ≤ 0 ℃) and heavy rainfall (daily precipitation ≥ 50 mm).
3.2 Temperature Changes in Huangshan City 19 In general, the annual temperature change in Huangshan was from 1oC to 2oC as it went on a down trending path during the period from 1960 to 1980. Thereafter, the mean annual temperature rose until 2000; the range of temperature changes was from a minimum of 0.27°C/decade to a maximum of 0.62°C/decade for maximum temperature leading to a mean of a 0.57°C/decade. During the last decade (2010 to 2015), the annual minimum, maximum and mean temperatures all changed compared to the data of the previous decade; average annual mean temperature from 2010 to 2015 increased 0.69°C up from compared with 1960s and 1.05 °C compared with the relatively cold decade 1980s. And the largest annual mean temperature from 1960 to 2015 reached 40.7 °C in year 2013. The annual and decadal average, minimum and maximum temperatures in Huangshan from 1960 to 2015 are presented in Figure 7.
Figure 7 : Historical Decadal Average and Annual Mean Temperature (Tmean), Maximum Temperature (Tmax) and Minimum Temperature (Tmin) in Huangshan during 1960 to 2015
Table 2 : Decadal changes in annual average, maximum and minimum temperature versus 1960s Annual average Annual max Annual min temperature (℃) temperature (℃) temperature (℃) 1970s -0.24 -0.22 -0.31 1980s -0.36 -0.93 1.17 1990s 0.07 -0.62 0.64 2000s 0.79 0.31 1.70 2010-2015 0.69 0.22 1.88
Comparing monthly average temperature of 1960 to 1989 and 1990 to 2015 (Figure 6), the average temperature of every month has exhibited a general escalation of less than 1℃, while the distribution
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TA-9311 PRC: Preparing Yangtze River Economic Belt Projects - Anhui Huangshan Xin’an River Ecological Protection and Green Development Project Climate Vulnerability Assessment and Management Report pattern remains almost the same. The monthly average temperatures increased over 10% to 26% in January, February, March and December, and were relatively constant in other months (increasing rate less than 6%).
Figure 8 : Monthly Average Temperature in Huangshan during 1960 to 1989 and 1990 to 2015
3.3 Precipitation Changes in Huangshan City 20 A summary of precipitation records from 1960 to 2015 were further analysed as presented in the following charts. The average annual total precipitation showed an increasing trend of 114mm per decade, while the annual rainy days ranged from 140-160 days. A minor increasing trend on maximum daily precipitation at 8.2mm per decade was recorded. The annual and decadal average precipitation and maximum daily precipitation in Huangshan from 1960 to 2015 are presented in Figure 9.
Figure 9 : Decadal Average and Annual Precipitation (PRE), Rain Days and Max Daily Precipitation (P- MaxDay) in Huangshan during 1960 to 2015
21 On a monthly basis, a set of data from1960-1989 is compared with another set of data from 1990-2015 as shown in Figure 10 below where it exhibited a bigger variability within the compared ranges. The largest monthly precipitation (June) was about 283mm from 1961–1989 and increased
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TA-9311 PRC: Preparing Yangtze River Economic Belt Projects - Anhui Huangshan Xin’an River Ecological Protection and Green Development Project Climate Vulnerability Assessment and Management Report to 372mm from 1990–2015 (up by 89mm). The analysis indicated a general increasing trend year round; January, June, July, August, November and December showed 15% to 45% increases while monthly precipitation in the dry autumn months of September and October showed a 30% decrease.
Figure 10 : Monthly Precipitation in Huangshan during 1960 to 1989 and 1990 to 2015
3.4 Other Climate Changes in Huangshan City 22 Historical temperature data has revealed a general warming trend in Huangshan, which resulted in more heat waves in the summer and less freezing cold days in the winter. Compared with the averages in the reference period of 1953-1980 against the period from 1980 onwards, the annual number of days, with the daily maximum temperature hotter than 35℃, has increased by 6 days in the recent decade, and the annual number of days, with the daily minimum temperature less than 0℃, has decreased by 12.6 days in the recent decade (Figure 11).
Figure 11 : Changes of annual hot days (daily max temperature ≥ 35 ℃) and cold days (daily min temperature ≤ 0 ℃) in Huangshan over 1981 to 2018 versus 1953 to 1980
23 When compared with the average rainy days of 6.6 days per year in the reference period (1980 to 1999) in Figure 12 below, the annual number of days with daily precipitation more than 50mm is in a general increasing channel of variability of 4 days or less.
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Figure 12 : Changes of annual days with heavy rainfalls (daily precipitation ≥ 50mm) in Huangshan over 2000 to 2018 versus the average of 1980 to 1999
4 Multi-decadal Climate Change Projections 4.1 Climate Change Projection Dataset 24 In support of the IPCC/CMIP5 (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change/Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5), the Beijing Climate Center has developed a decadal model suitable for regional and global climate change projection. The dataset of climate change projection adopted in this report was derived by the Beijing Climate Center Climate System Model version 1.1 Modified (BCC_CSM1.1-M). The climate change in Huangshan was further simulated by MarkSim DSSAT weather file generator 7 under the greenhouse gas emission scenarios of the representative concentration pathways (RCPs)—RCP 2.6, RCP4.5 RCP 6.0 and RCP8.5 as per the IPCC/AR5. The maximum, minimum and average temperatures and precipitations during 2020-2100 were projected for future climate change analysis.
25 Representative Concentration Pathways. Generally, future climate projections are based on climate model forcing by future greenhouse gas (GHG) emission scenarios. Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) are four GHG concentration—not emissions—trajectories adopted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change for its fifth assessment report in 2014. It supersedes the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios projections published in 2000. The RCPs were used for climate modelling and research. They describe four possible climate futures, all of which will be considered possible depending on how much GHGs will be emitted in the years to come. The four RCPs are RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0, and RCP8.5. They are named after a possible range of radiative forcing values in the year 2100 relative to pre-industrial values (+2.6, +4.5, +6.0, and +8.5 watts per square meter).
4.2 Climate Change Projection in Temperature 26 Under each RCP scenario, the projected climate change will lead to changes on annual mean, minimum and maximum temperatures for the period 2020 to 2100 (Figure 13) causing substantial warming in Huangshan. As shown in the graphs, the magnitude of warming trend is very scenario- based; the maximum, minimum and mean temperatures will continue to increase under RCP 8.5 scenario, while under the other scenarios the temperatures will increase in a much slower trend and reach stabilization or decrease towards the latter 21st century.
7 http://gismap.ciat.cgiar.org/MarksimGCM/#
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TA-9311 PRC: Preparing Yangtze River Economic Belt Projects - Anhui Huangshan Xin’an River Ecological Protection and Green Development Project Climate Vulnerability Assessment and Management Report
Figure 13 : Projected Annual Maximum, Minimum and Average Temperature in Huangshan during 2020 to 2100
27 In general, the temperature in Huangshan will evidently rise in the 21st century, shown by decadal changes of annual maximum, minimum and mean temperature in Huangshan over the period 2020 to 2100 versus the baseline period 1960 to 2015 (Table 3). Under RCP 8.5 scenario, the maximum and minimum temperatures will keep increasing rapidly during 2020 to 2100 while the mean temperatures will rise to a peak in 2090 of 1.16 hotter than the reference temperature. Under RCP 4.5 and 6.0 scenarios, the maximum and minimum temperatures continue to increase to the peak in later 21st century and decrease afterwards, while the mean temperatures will fluctuate between the range of 0.46℃ to 0.79℃ and 0.05℃ to 0.52℃ hotter than the reference temperature, respectively. Under the RCP 2.6 scenario, the maximum and minimum temperatures will reach the maximum in 2090 and 2060, respectively, while the mean temperature will fluctuate before 2060, continue to increase after 2016 and reach 1.03℃ hotter than the reference temperature in 2100.
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TA-9311 PRC: Preparing Yangtze River Economic Belt Projects - Anhui Huangshan Xin’an River Ecological Protection and Green Development Project Climate Vulnerability Assessment and Management Report
Table 3 : Changes of Annual Maximum, Minimum and Mean Temperature in Huangshan over 2020 to 2100 versus 1960 to 2015
Max Temperature (℃) Min Temperature (℃) Mean Temperature (℃) RCP 2.6 4.5 6.0 8.5 2.6 4.5 6.0 8.5 2.6 4.5 6.0 8.5 2020 0.56 1.46 1.36 0.76 0.84 1.24 1.24 1.54 0.68 0.53 0.30 0.08 2030 0.76 1.96 0.76 1.16 1.24 1.44 1.44 1.94 0.37 0.68 0.08 0.30 2040 1.36 2.26 1.16 1.66 1.64 1.64 1.64 2.24 0.46 0.63 0.13 0.56 2050 1.66 2.66 1.56 2.26 1.74 1.84 1.94 2.44 0.47 0.68 0.14 0.72 2060 1.56 2.86 1.86 3.06 1.84 2.04 2.24 2.64 0.41 0.62 0.05 0.83 2070 1.76 2.76 2.06 3.86 1.74 2.24 2.54 2.84 0.78 0.79 0.32 0.94 2080 2.06 2.56 2.76 4.56 1.54 2.34 2.74 3.14 0.85 0.78 0.52 1.07 2090 2.16 2.16 2.86 5.66 1.24 2.34 2.74 3.64 0.88 0.71 0.43 1.16 2100 1.96 2.06 3.26 6.96 1.14 2.24 2.54 4.04 1.03 0.46 0.46 1.04 Baseline* 38.04 -6.74 16.58 Note: The baseline data are the average numbers of maximum, minimum and mean temperature in Huangshan over 1960 to 2015.
4.3 Climate Change Projection in Precipitation 28 The projected precipitation changes in Huangshan for 2020 to 2100 will vary under different scenarios, as shown in Figure 14 and Table 45. Under RCP 2.6 scenario, the projected annual precipitation and rainy days will increase to the peak of 138.05mm and 10.76 days higher than the reference numbers (averages of 1960 to 2015) in 2060 and slowly decrease after 2060. Under RCP 4.5 scenario, the projected annual precipitation and rainy days will continue to growth and reach the maximum in the end of 21th century. Under RCP 6.0 scenario, the projected annual precipitation and rain days will fluctuate with a slightly decreasing trend. Under RCP 8.5 scenario, the projected annual precipitation will increase to the peak of about 140mm higher than the reference number in 2070 and decrease drastically after 2070, while the projected rain days will continue to decrease and reach about 8 days less than the reference number in 2100.
Figure 14 : Projected Annual Precipitation in Huangshan during 2020 to 2100
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Table 4 : Changes of Annual Precipitation in Huangshan over 2020 to 2100 versus 1960 to 2015
Change of Annual Precipitation (mm) Change of Annual Rain Days (days) Decade RCP2.6 RCP4.5 RCP6.0 RCP8.5 RCP2.6 RCP4.5 RCP6.0 RCP8.5 2020 58.05 38.95 68.15 48.45 -0.62 0.56 7.22 7.63 2030 92.49 58.25 45.45 53.55 6.56 0.50 7.66 4.54 2040 120.15 82.05 35.25 70.95 7.54 3.56 6.07 2.06 2050 135.65 106.75 39.35 96.95 9.05 5.60 5.84 1.79 2060 138.05 129.45 54.45 123.95 10.76 8.69 7.78 2.24 2070 130.15 147.55 71.95 139.95 5.69 7.67 5.41 1.93 2080 119.45 158.35 77.95 129.65 4.31 8.44 2.63 -0.38 2090 117.35 161.25 53.85 72.65 3.47 9.29 1.46 -5.60 2100 124.65 159.05 23.05 19.25 1.61 12.08 -2.09 -7.97 Baseline* 1714.95 151.13 Note: The baseline data are the average annual precipitation and rain days in Huangshan over 1960 to 2015.
5 Potential Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation Options for the Huangshan Project 5.1 General Principles 29 In February 2016, the National Development and Reform Commission joined with the PRC’s Ministry of Housing and Urban Construction promulgating the "Urban Adaptation to Climate Change Action Plan". Their vision is to incorporate the climate change adaptation principles and methods into the urban and rural planning systems, construction standards, and the industry development plan by 2020.8 There were 28 cities identified for the pilot in the following year. The main tasks include, (i) enhancing the climate change adaptation concept; (ii) improving the monitoring and early warning capacity; (iii) developing the key adaptation actions to climate change; (iv) establishing a policy test base; and (v) building a platform for international cooperation until 2020.
30 Although Huangshan is not a pilot city, the climate change vulnerability assessment from ADB will, (i) employ the best science and evidence based data to understand (a) the range of climate changes wmight face, and (b) what effects they might have; (ii) understand better the vulnerability to our current climate; (iii) assess what we can put in place now, and plan for the future to increase the resilience of the project; (iv) minimize the risk of significant climate change impacts; and (v) propose the climate change adaptation/mitigation actions to support a green development path for Huangshan. All these efforts will (i) improve Huangshan’s capacity for adaptation to climate change; and (ii) fill the gaps from the national urban adaptation strategy.
31 In March 2016, the PRC’s Thirteenth Five-Year Plan (Plan) emphasized the active adaptation to climate change. 9 The Plan also recommended that climate change should be considered in urban and rural planning, infrastructure construction, productivity layout, and relative economic and social activities. Relevant technical standards should be promoted and adjusted for better management of climate change. Climate change action plan should be implemented. Climate change observation system and scientific research should be strengthened, climate prediction and early warning system should be improved, and the capacity to deal with extreme weather and climate events should be enhanced.
8 National Development and Reform Commission and Government of the PRC, Ministry of Housing and Urban Construction. 2016. Urban Adaptation to Climate Change Action Plan. National Development and Reform Commission Issue No. 245. Beijing. 9 Government of the PRC. 2016. Outline of the Thirteenth Five-Year Program for National Economic and Social Development, 2016–2020. Beijing.
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5.2 Potential Climate Change Impacts on the Huangshan Project 32 In Huangshan, projected changes of annual mean temperature during the period 2020–2100 are in a rising trend which could reach as high as +0.86oC from the reference temperature (16.58oC, annual average temperature over 1960 to 2015). This significant elevated hot climate will also bring along more precipitation of 140mm above normal rainy day. Potential climate change impacts are summarized in Table 5.
Table 5 : Summary of Potential Climate Change Impacts Climate Change Environmental Impacts
- Vegetation degradation Variability of elevated high/low temperatures - Higher soil temperature Intense high and/or low quantity of precipitation - Flood, drought, storm
33 Climate change poses some potential risks to this project. Projected temperature increases in Huangshan may stress physical structures and degrade materials. Precipitation changes are highly uncertain, with both small increases and decreases in total precipitation annually projected. However, the increase in rainfall variability and the intensity of extreme rainfall events will also potentially increase the flood risk. Sudden intense storms following a drought may lead to flash flood due to absorbent capacity of soils. It should be noted, however, that several factors besides climate change influence the flood risk. The anticipated risks due to climate change upon infrastructure projects are summarized in the Table 6.
34 Despite the uncertainties found in the projections by the climate change models, floods, severe storms, and droughts have historically had a high negative impact on the PRC’s economy, environment, and local quality of life. As future storms, floods, droughts, and high temperatures will likely have potential impacts on infrastructure in this project and/or current urban infrastructure, a suit of adaptation measures will be considered and discussed.
Potential Impacts 35 Storms, rainfall variability (alternating drought-wet conditions) and higher temperatures result in soil moisture variations. The water-soil-temperature interaction would certainly lead to differential ground settlement or even soil erosion to some extremes. The weakened soil bearing capacity would be damaging to all infrastructures, roadworks and river course. These are summarized in the following table.
Table 6 : Potential Impacts Impacts Scenario of infrastructure damages Soil bearing capacity Dislocation of pipelines, manholes, catch-pits, collapse of roads, utilities structures, weaken foundations of structures, etc. Embankment damages, subway flooding, power line damages, Serve flood water flows flooding treatment processes/upsetting treatment efficiency Elevated inflow/ Pipe leakage, dislocation, manhole backflow/overflow infiltration in pipelines Soil erosion Soil wash, debris flow, earth spread, topple in landscape/farming sites Drought Dry out irrigation water, plant dead, hazard to landscape/farming A greater fraction of absorbed solar radiation at the surface is converted to sensible rather than latent heat. This effect is due to the Heat Island Effect10 replacement of moist soils and plants with paved and waterproofed surfaces, and a resultant decline in surface moisture, ie. Concrete pipe laying grounds, access roads or concrete river bank parapet walls.
10 Oke, T.R. 1995. The heat island effect of the urban boundary layer: Characteristics, causes and effects. In J. E. Cernmak et al (eds.), Wind climate in cities. New York: Kluwer Academic, pp 81-108.
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5.3 Climate Change Adaptation Options for Huangshan Project 36 The IPCC defines climate change adaptation 11 as adjustment in natural or human systems in response to actual or expected climatic stimuli or their effects, which moderates harm or exploits beneficial opportunities. In short, this is a tool to take appropriate action to prevent or minimize the damage that the adverse impacts of climate change might cause. A well planned Huangshan project with adaptation measures embedded into engineering design, would save money and prevent damages in later stages.
Adaptation Options for Infrastructure Construction 37 The project will support improvements in public infrastructure through the upgrading the drainage systems, mainstreaming surface flow back to the nature pattern while improving the water quality via sewer systems for later reclamation of water resources. From the hydro-geological setting of Huangshan, the natural water divider is the 1,864m Huangshan Mountain in the north that allows natural streams along the northern slopes to flow towards the Yangtze River. The enhanced drainage and sewers in the local villages help minimize flooding risk. The proposed adaptation measure here is the installation of drainage pipes that would strengthen the flow networks in the areas thus increasing the resilience of Xin’an River against flood risks.
38 It is also in line with the China State Council Directive12 on sponge city interventions as promulgated in October 2015 in which a sponge city, in an urban environment, is constructed to soak up storm water and capture that water for reuse. A sponge city will be able to (i) deal with too much water, and (ii) reuse the rain water during drought. The Huangshan project is considering plans in this direction. The improvement in surface water management in rivers and lakes, enlargement of the green spaces via landscaping and the introduction of ecotourism are part of the measures to address the extreme weathers, such as, high heat, high evaporation rate for protection against wildfire, drought or even low atmospheric pressure for tropical cyclones.
39 Anticipated structural impacts need regular maintenance for efficient operation. Reinforced structural materials should be considered in the design and construction of roads and drains, various forms of pipes/pipe beddings, walkway, retaining structures/flood dams along rivers, wastewater treatment stations, tourism facilities as shown in the summary table above (Table 5 or 6?). Extra infiltration due to elevated ground water table/flooding can be met by enhanced pipe flow capacity or emergence outlets in some wastewater treatment stations. Damages to landscape works can be mitigated by maintaining the vegetation, for example, by irrigation during dry periods.
40 Regarding vegetation, the adaptation options considered in landscape project design should be based on (i) use of Chinese native species of the region; hence, with climate resilience for local conditions; (ii) use of local planting materials (seeds, seedlings, saplings, and cuttings) sourced from Anhui Province or the PRC; and (iii) careful selection of native species that can endure high temperature, and periodic waterlogging and drought. Some adaptation options are summarized in the following Table 7.
11 IPCC, 2014: Annex II: Glossary [Mach, K.J., S. Planton and C. von Stechow (eds.)]. In: Climate Change 2014: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Group I,II and III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernment Panel on Climate Change [Core Writing Team, R.K. Pachauri and L.A.Meyer (eds.)]. IPCC, Geneva, Switzerland, pp. 117-130. 12 National State Council, 2015. Guiding principles on the construction of sponge city, State Council Office issue No.75.
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Table 7 : Adaptation Measures Climate Adaptation Measures Applications Resilience Areas To address this issue, reinforced structural materials are suggested and will be adopted in accordance with National Standards of People’s Republic of China, GB 50268-2008 “Code for construction and acceptance of water and sewerage pipeline works13, such as, Enhanced • Strengthen pipeline with flexible joints construction for • Flexible high strength pipes, e.g., Steel belt reinforced climate changes HDPE pipes Output 1 & 2: • Pipeline should be designed with smooth hydraulic sewer/storm gradients pipes/culverts/ • Install backflow valves in critical sections manholes • Emergency bypass outfalls • Soil containment design • Flood water should be avoided from wastewater treatment facilities. Bypass of untreated water should be disinfected against potential waterborne diseases • Combined soul/storm water pipes should be separated as far as possible Design for sponge city facilities, such as, • Pervious surface to allow water flow • Sunken green space to absorb more water • Bioretention ditch to purify/filter natural runoff • Ecological tree pit to collect rainwater for green Output 1A-1, 1A-2, Flood, heavy Environmental catchpit to harvest rainwater for reuse 1A-3, 1A4, 1A-5, rain, drought, • 1A-6: roads & extreme heat • Planting ditch to act a green corridor to interconnect sponge city facilities drains • Vegetation buffer zone is a protective zone against heaving, increase flow concentration time reducing flooding • First flush manhole is a small chamber to settle out sand/debris better use of water Design for constructed wetland for flooding adaptation and Flood, heavy modify local temperature Output 1B-6, 2-2: rain, drought, • Wetland park development riverside land use extreme heat • Wetland rehabilitation Forest health monitoring and disease prevention Green cover, soil • Forestry monitoring and warning system erosion, forest • Quarantine and pest/disease prevention Output 2-4 fires and pest Pest/disease mitigation and management outbreaks • • Information system for pine tree disease control Smart management system Monitoring, • Smart IT system is applied to collect data for forewarn forecast, and Output 4A-3, 4A-4 GHGs/electricity usage and capacity building early warning
41 Application of Sponge City Adaptation: To enhance the climate change adaptative capacity, it is cost effective to factor into the project green facilities/technologies. According to the requirements of the “Management Measures for the Construction of Sponge City in Huangshan
13 GB 50268-2008. Code for construction and acceptance of water and sewerage pipeline works. National Standards of People’s Republic of China.
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City”14, the construction, reconstruction and expansion of Huangshan City will adopt sponge city facilities. For design/construction of urban drainage and flood control works, it is necessary to consider facilities against urban flooding, separate combined sewage systems, control first flush pollution, and discharge stormwater with preliminary screening before entering into natural streams. It is also essential to minimize leakage for interceptors and sewer pipelines. In sub-projects 1A-1 to 1A-6, detailed design will follow the "Sponge City Construction Technical Guide15" and "Anhui Sponge City Construction Technology - Rainwater Control and Utilization Engineering Standard Atlas16”. It is shown in Table 8 below.
Table 8 : Application of Sponge City Facilities
1. Pervious Surfacing: Permeable pavement can 2. Sunken Green Space: In small scale, it be divided into permeable brick paving, refers to a green space that is lower than permeable no fine concrete paving and 200mm from the surrounding paved ground or permeable open grade friction course (OGFC) road. In a large scale, it refers to a green space asphalt concrete paving according to different with a certain storage capacity to regulate and surface materials. Inlaid grass bricks, pebbles in purify runoff, such as, bioretention facilities, gravel pavement, gravel paving, etc. are also infiltration ponds, wet ponds, stormwater permeable pavement. Pervious brick paving and wetlands, and regulating ponds. permeable no fine concrete paving are mainly Sunken green spaces can be widely used in suitable for plazas, parking lots, sidewalks, and urban buildings and communities, roads, green roads with small traffic and loads, such as spaces and squares buildings and residential roads, non-motorized roads, etc. Permeable asphalt concrete pavement can also be used motor vehicle lane.
3. Bioretention Ditch filtrates and purifies runoff 4. Ecological Tree Pit is a kind of bioretention by plants, soils, and microbial systems in low-lying facility designed for tree habitat, including such areas, such as, rainwater gardens, bioretention as, rainwater scorpion, aquifer layer, bark cover zones, high level flower beds and ecological tree layer, tree planting soil layer, sand layer and pits. Bioretention facilities have various forms, gravel drainage layer, with runoff being filtered wide application, easy integration with by multiple layers, etc. This ecological landscapes, effective runoff control, and low treatment is effective on heavy metal pollutants construction/ maintenance costs. However, areas removal. After water purification, it can be with high groundwater levels, rock layers, poor infiltrated back to recharge groundwater. soil permeability and steep terrain requires additional measures such as soil replacement, seepage prevention, and/or terraced field are necessary to avoid secondary disasters with incurred construction costs.
14 Office of the Huangshan Municipal People’s Government, 2018. Notice of the interim measures for the construction and management of sponge city in Huangshan city. 15 Housing and Rural-urban Construction Bureau, 2014. Sponge City Construction Technical Guide, City construction issue [2014] No275 16 Research Institute of Anhui Urban Construction Design, 2015. Anhui Sponge City Construction Technology - Rainwater Control and Utilization Engineering Standard Atlas, Anhui 2015Z102
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5. Environmental Catchpit is an upgraded version 6. Planting Ditch refers to the surface ditch with of an ordinary simple catchpit. It provides vegetation, which can collect, transport and preliminary screening and filtration during first discharge runoff, and has some degree of flush and it does not affect the smooth discharge purification effect. It can be used to inter- of rainwater during heavy rain. It is widely used in connecting other single individual sponge city buildings and local communities, urban roads and facilities, urban stormwater pipeline system and plazas for rainwater polish before discharging to other overflow storm runoff discharge system. natural stream course. Water passes through Its basic function is to enhance the stormwater different chambers of the catchpit with filter layer carrying capacity against flooding, withhold partitions or even biofilters which could enhance surface runoff with increased retention rate, some degree of biodegradation function. It has reduce the surface flow rate, and prolong the the function to screen off mud/sand debris and concentration time of a storm. It provides an biodegrading organics and is suitable for auxiliary water-friendly areas in the vicinity of rainwater harvesting in low impact development local roads, plazas, parking lots and other areas. impervious areas, urban roads and urban green areas, etc., and can also be used as pretreatment facilities for low-impact development facilities such as bioretention facilities and wet ponds.
7. Vegetation Buffer Zone is a gentle sloping area covered with landscaping. In general, storm surface runoff would be intercepted by vegetation on slope with soil infiltration, the surface flow velocity would then be slowed down with certain degree of pollutant removals along the path. The designed slope is about 2-6% with a width not less than 2m. It can be used as a pre-treatment facility for low-impact development such as bio-retention facilities and/or as a waterfront green belt for urban water systems. Vegetation buffer belt construction and maintenance costs are low, but the requirements for site space and slope are high while runoff control effect is limited.
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8. First Flush Manhole is a settling manhole designed for intercepting first flush runoff with preliminary treatment to remove dirt and pollutants. The initial rainwater should be treated via sewerage pipe network (confluent pipe network) for treatment in centralized municipal sewage treatment plant.
42 Adaptation for Extreme Heat, Drought and Wildfire: The projection of climate change indicates that extreme heat or drought from a macro-climate perspective. At the city level, the observations17 in topoclimatic effects could have a dominant influence on micro-climate. It is proven that there would be a general temperature drop in the range of 1 oC to 2oC in some carefully planned areas with high ratio of green cover.18 The design of local landscape feature, slope gradient/angle, shading, solar radiation materials, soil temperature/drainage, wind passage corridor/speed, and precipitation/runoff routing. in the form of a sponge city design19 should help reduce hot dry weather days, enable reuse/recycle rain water, lead to water conservation as well as minimize the potential of wild hill fires in a water rich setting. In Huangshan, the adaptation via ecological-friendly constructed wetland with forest health monitoring to prevent plant diseases could further enhance climate change resilience and protect against extreme heat vulnerability. The project design should bear in mind to adopt the followings:
1. Smart development: The proposal should cover a range of development and conservation strategies that help not only nurture the local environment but also plan villages/communities more attractive, economically stronger, and more livable.
17 T. R. Oke, 2012, Local Climate Zones for Urban Temperature Studies. In Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 93(12):1879-1900 · December 2012 18 Alejandra S Coronel, Susana R Feldman, Emliano Jozami, Kehoe Facundo, Rubon D Piacentini, Marielle Dubbeling and Francisco J Escobedo, 2015. Effects of urban green areas on air temperature in a medium-sized Argentinian city. Environmental Science, Vol 2 Issue 3, 803-826 19 WU Dan-jie, ZHAN Sheng-ze, LI You-hua, TU Man-zhang, ZHENG Jian-yang, GUO Ying-yuan, PENG Hai-yang, 2016. New Trends and Practical Research on the Sponge Cities with Chinese Characteristics. In China Soft Science, vol. 2016-01.
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2. Green cover ratio: providing shade and cooling effect by increasing trees, shrubs and vegetation cover could in fact lower air temperature. Green root-top and/or vertical façade are some of the urban greening options. The enhanced insulating effect allow lesser air- conditioning dependent in hot summers means energy-saving.
3. Cool surface material with high thermal radiative effect: open grade friction course (OGFC) asphalt concrete or no-fine concrete with open structure road surfacing could be adopted and footpath, sidewalk or cycle track could be printed with environmentally-friendly colours, such as, green or yellowish green to increase its radiative efficiency and comfort.20
43 Application of Constructed wetland with green features. On both sides of the river, it is necessary to construct and upgrade river bank for better flood and drought resilience. Two pieces of land of 6000m2 and 4000m2 along Xin’an River in She County (ie. sub-project 1B-6) and 4000m2 for the Xin’an River Green Agriculture Demonstration Project in She County (ie. sub-project 2-2) are respectively demarcated for constructed wetland. In Figure 15, constructed wetland could use ecological retaining walls and/or the stone cage as well as natural revetment in places with high height difference. Constructed wetland could follow the natural terrain to form a terraced riverside wetland as shown in Figure 16. Constructed wetland is based on open texture material substrates like, sand, rubble and stone to encourage aeration pre-empting anaerobic processes with the side effects of smell or risky gas of methane. Similar practices are proven along some existing reaches of Xin’an River. The purpose is to construct aquatic habitats for plant diversity, stability of wetland communities and the use of aqua eco-system to stock a variety of waterfowls.
Figure 15 : Stone cage wetland design
Figure 16 : Terraced Riverside wetland design
20 Walid Briki and Lina Majed, 2019. Adaptive Effects of Seeing Green Environment on Psychophysiological Parameters When Walking or Running. In Frontier in Psychology, Feb 2019, Vol 10/252.
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44 Adaptation by forest health monitoring and disease prevention. Eco-system-based adaptation approach in Huangshan is to increase the resilience and reduce the vulnerability of forest environment to climate change, such as forest fires and pest outbreaks. The sub-project 2-4 is focused on 60 villages of 70,000ha forest with Pinus taiwanensis Hayata which is a kind of native species in Huangshan. • Forestry monitoring and warning system: set up 50 monitoring cameras together with drone monitoring; • Quarantine and pest/disease prevention: set up 29 quarantine stations; • Pest/disease mitigation and management: target to arrange 900,000 stem injection to keep good health; and, • Information system for pine tree disease control: set up online information center to provide pest/fire control information, survey data and analytical system for management.
45 Adaptation Option of Smart Systems. Smart management system is proposed for Huizhou District Industrial Park and She County Industrial Park in which an online monitoring system on specific stormwater/sewerage drainage, air pollution, solid waste data are collected. The adaptation options to climate change in management systems can include, but is not limited to, (i) information related to key extreme weather and climate event risks in the region; (ii) climate, climate change, and extreme event prediction information and monitoring index; (iii) emergency management scheme of disaster; and (iv) normalization of multisector joint defence and a sound action guarantee system for disaster.
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6 Climate Mitigation for Huangshan Project 46 Climate change has become a challenge to the international community. In 2016, China has signed the Paris Agreement within the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) 21 for combating greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The delivery of this project is committed to stand up to face this global challenge, climate mitigation options are examined, communicated with the local design team and the Huangshan government for further action to be taken on board to reduce GHG emission levels.
47 Mitigation of climate change is a human intervention to reduce the sources or enhance the sinks of GHGs as recommended by IPCC 22 which consists of actions to limit the magnitude or rate of long-term global warming. Climate change mitigation generally involves reductions or avoidance of anthropogenic emissions of GHGs. Mitigation can also be achieved via carbon sequestration by increasing the capacity of carbon sinks.23 It is a mission to minimize the carbon footprints of the Huangshan projects. This would involve the investigation into the intrinsic carbon footprints from the use of materials or the embodied carbon, as well as the energy consumed during project construction and operations. Green measures employed via landscaping, green farming and forestry management would definitely further mitigate the emissions of anthropogenic GHG through carbon sequestration via natural photosynthesis process.
6.1 Innovative Low carbon Engineering Measures 48 Low carbon technology for construction is an innovative engineering that involves all processes from cradle to grave. In UK, the construction trade calls for the 4 “Bs” approach, ie. i) build nothing – challenge the root cause of the need and explore alternative approaches to achieve the desired outcome; ii) build less – maximise the use of existing assets and optimise asset operation and management to reduce the extent of new construction required; iii) build clever – design in the use of low carbon materials, streamline delivery processes and minimize resource consumption; iv) build efficiently – embrace new construction technologies and eliminate waste.24 The guidelines apply to the life-cycle, namely, planning, design, construction, commissioning, operation and maintenance periods of the project. In China, low carbon engineering should follow the requirements in the relevant National Standards of the People’s Republic of China.25,26 This is the base of the blueprint for the project, in which low carbon materials and practices would be considered and adopted in Appendix 1 forming the backbone of construction and operation.
6.1.1 Smart carbon efficiency during construction stage 49 In Huangshan, the project is formulated and followed a suite of good practices on low carbon construction24 and use of low carbon materials; this essentially stipulates that the construction processes will consume less energy and emit less carbon as a ground rule. A lean construction approach will emphasize on green development, sponge city landscape, resource conservation, recycle, waste minimization, energy saving as well as GHGs reduction. The application of sponge city facilities are shown in Table 5-4 above.
6.1.2 Energy efficiency measures and Impacts to Climate Change 50 Too much GHGs trapping the sun’s heat leads to global warming and climate change. The implementation of the project involves the direct and indirect carbon utilization. The majority of the
21 2016 Paris Agreement ceremony: https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/list-of-representatives-to-high-level-signature-ceremony.pdf 22 IPCC, 2014: Annex II: Glossary [Mach, K.J., S. Planton and C. von Stechow (eds.)]. In: Climate Change 2014: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Group I,II and III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernment Panel on Climate Change [Core Writing Team, R.K. Pachauri and L.A.Meyer (eds.)]. IPCC, Geneva, Switzerland, pp. 117- 130. 23 IPCC, "Summary for policymakers", Climate Change 2007: Working Group III: Mitigation of Climate Change, Table SPM.3, C. Mitigation in the short and medium term (until 2030), in IPCC AR4 WG3 2007. 24 UK GBC, 2019. A Net Zero Carbon Buildings: Framework Definition 25 GB/51366 -2019. Standard for building carbon emission calculation. National Standards of People’s Republic of China. 26 GB/T51356-2019. Assessment standard for green building. National Standards of People’s Republic of China. Doc. No. 10-02118017 Rev.1 Page 22
TA-9311 PRC: Preparing Yangtze River Economic Belt Projects - Anhui Huangshan Xin’an River Ecological Protection and Green Development Project Climate Vulnerability Assessment and Management Report infrastructures is comprised of building materials which embodies with various degree of carbon footprints. It is required to maximize the structural efficiency of the materials and optimize the volumetric quantities, source materials from the proximity with priority given to local products, specify construction materials with lower carbon footprints while complying the relevant national codes of practice for construction safety. In China, focus is already on energy efficiency improvements.27
51 Carbon, is released by burning of fossil fuel. Any reduction in the amount of fuel used will save costs. Energy efficiency measures such as use of energy efficient equipment, and imposing restrictions on truck idling may result in less energy consumption and therefore lower contributions to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The reduced time of travel for cargo trucks and reduced time in transit, which are basic project objectives, also result in lower GHG emissions. During construction, energy efficiency measures are also considered via having lean construction team aimed to optimize design of temporary works, use of lower carbon material alternatives, implemtenation of activities on site planning to reduce wastage, consideration of re-use, recycling and return of waste materials on site, use of energy saving on lighting with LED light bulbs or solar lightings, and doing proper management/maintenance on transportation/plant operation as well as water-saving management on site.
6.2 Carbon Sequestration 52 Carbon sequestration is the uptake of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere.28 The low carbon principle of a sponge city is aimed at decoupling development from fossil fuel-based consumption and provide a landscape garden city with a high green coverage water urban/suburban living environment29. One of different types of sequestrations is the use of biological processes such as forestry or soil conservation as a carbon sink, commonly known as carbon bio-sequestration.
6.2.1 Carbon sequestration of vegetation and crops
53 The total amount of carbon assimilated by vegetable during photosynthesis is the Gross Primary Production (GPP). Some of this carbon is respired by the plants in the form of autotrophic respiration, Ra and returns as atmospheric CO2. The residual carbon is called Net Primary Production (NPP). Furthermore, some of the living and dead plants are consumed by trophic organisms releasing atmospheric CO2 through heterotrophic respiration, Rh. The resultant carbon remain is Net Ecosystem Production (NEP). Simply, it can be expressed as NEP = NPP - Rh = GPP - (Ra + Rh + other loss)
Table 9 : Carbon Bio-sequestration by Different Types of Land30
Land type Area/Km2 Carbon Storage gC/m2 GPP NPP NEP Above Below Ground gC/m2.yr gC/m2.yr gC/m2.yr Ground Forests 48,606,300 5000-15,000 15,000-31,000 800-3,500 270-900 40-400 Grasslands 15,786,500 200-1000 20,000-24,000 150-1,600 400 70-200 Croplands 18,493,500 200 18,000 1,000 200-1,000 250 Urban areas 308,000- 2000-9,000 1,000-14,000 NA NA NA 3,524,100
27 Hong JK, Shen G.O.P, Guo S, Xue F, Zheng W. (2016). Energy use embodied in China’s Construction Industry: A multi-regional input-output analysis, renewable & sustainable energy reviews, Vo 53, 1303-1312. DOI:10.1016/j.rser.2015.09.068, January. (SCI, 5-Year impact factor:7.445, Ranked 3/29 in Green & Sustainable Science & Technology and 6/88 in Energy & Fuels by JCR in 2015) 28 Source: https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/02/WGIIAR5-AnnexII_FINAL.pdf 29 WU Dan-jie, ZHAN Sheng-ze, LI You-hua, TU Man-zhang, ZHENG Jian-yang, GUO Ying-yuan, PENG Hai-yang, 2016. New Trends and Practical Research on the Sponge Cities with Chinese Characteristics. In China Soft Science, vol. 2016-01. 30 Galina Churkina, 2013. An introduction to carbon cycle science, in “Land and the carbon cycle” Ed. by D. G. Brown, D. T. Robinson, N. H. F. French, B. C. Reed, Cambridge University Press. Doc. No. 10-02118017 Rev.1 Page 23
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54 It is a current practice that adoption of a restorative land-use through proper land management practices on agricultural soils can reduce the release rate of atmospheric CO2 and have the co-benefit of having positive impacts on agriculture, water quality and the environment. A considerable part of the depleted Soil Organic Carbon (SOC) pool can be restored through conversion of marginal lands into restorative land uses, adoption of conservation tillage with cover crops and crop residue mulch, nutrient cycling including the use of compost and manure, and other systems of sustainable management of soil and water resources. Measured rates of soil carbon sequestration through the adoption of good soil management practice ranges from 50 to 1000 kg/ha.year. The global potential of SOC bio-sequestration through these practices is 0.9 0.3 Pg C/year; this could offset 25%-33% of the annual increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide.31
55 The total proposed new vegetation area in the project is about 3 hectares. While national estimates are not available for carbon sequestration by grasslands, only the planting area for woody plants (i.e. trees and bushes) was used for the calculation of the carbon sequestered. In the PRC, annual carbon sequestration capacity of forest is estimated to be 0.3-12 t C/ha32 depending on forest type, species, and age, as well as soil, water and weather (average annual sunshine hours, rainfall and temperature). Considering the weather conditions of Huangshan Municipality, the value of 3.32 t/ha/yr33 , 34 was applied for the calculation of carbon sequestration for the project. It is estimated that tree and shrub plantings in the project will achieve 1000 tons of carbon sequestration per year (Table 10).
56 In the green agricultural demonstration project, practices of formulated fertilization, and soil amelioration are proposed to improve the production of croplands and reduce non-point source pollution control. Assuming these adopted agricultural practices uplift 20% of the biodiversity and the carbon sequestration of cropland NEP (2.5 t/ha/yr, see Table 10), the improved croplands will contribute to additional carbon sequestration of 990 t/year. Thus, the carbon sequestration potential from vegetation plantation and improved croplands is 1000 t carbon/year (ie. 3666.7 t CO2e per year) and sum up to 91,667 t CO2e for 25 years.
Table 10 : Preliminary Calculation of Carbon Sink from Vegetation Plantation and Improved Croplands
Category Carbon Sink Carbon Sequestration County/District Area (ha) factor (t/ha/yr) Potential (t/year) Vegetation Huangshan District 0.81 2.7 plantation Yi County 0.60 2.0 3.32 She County 1.64 5.4 Sub-total 3.05 10.1 Improved She County 1300 650 croplands Huangshan District 680 340 0.5
Sub-total 1980 990 Total 1000
31 R. Lal, 2004. Soil carbon sequestration to mitigate climate change. In. Geoderma 123 (2004)1-22 32 Carbon sequestration capacity comparison. May 2011. http://www.carbontree.com.cn/News show asp ?bid=5725 33 C.D. Huang, J. Zhang et al. 2008 Dynameics on forest carbon stock in Sichuan Province and Chongqing City. Acta Ecologica Sinica, 2008, 28(3):0966-0975. 34 Xinliang XU, Mingkui CAO, Kerang LI. 2007 Temporal- spatial dynamics of carbon storage of forest vegetation in China. Institute of Geography Sciences and Nature Resources Research, CAS Beijing 100101, Progress in Geography. Vol 26 No.6 Nov. 207 Doc. No. 10-02118017 Rev.1 Page 24
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6.2.2 Influence of Pine Forest Disease Prevention on Carbon Sequestration
57 Huangshan area has been classified in January 2019 as the epidemic region of Bursaphelenchus xylophilus,35 a deadly disease for pine trees which is fatal within 40 days after infection. There are 71 townships identified as the serious disease zones in all districts and counties. Huangshan Municipality has initiated pine disease control since 1999 in which two major projects involved funding of RMB1.90 million and 95.85 million in the periods of 1999-2004 and 2009-2014, respectively. With such efforts, Huangshan has established a set of basic monitoring, survey, inspection and control systems. Even though the measures have helped maintain a lot of healthy pine trees, 23,035 trees within an area of over 2,500 hectares were found dead in 2018.
58 The proposed pine forest disease prevention component in the project includes the following: i) establishment of a monitoring system for pine forest disease;ii) a set of laboratory inspection and disease diagnosis equipment for pinewood; iii) prevention measures(e.g., chemical pest control of Monochamus alternatus for pine trees within a 7 million hectare area, and injections for 900,000 pine trees in 70 townships); iv) procurement of unmanned aerial vehicle monitoring service for an area of 30,000 hectares; and,v) a management information system (MIS) for pine wilt disease monitoring. With such strengthened monitoring and prevention measures, the disease would be controlled.
59 Amount of CO2 sequestrated in a Huangshan pine tree. The estimate of annual CO2 sequestration in a Huangshan pine tree includes the following three steps36:
(i) Determination of the total weight of the tree. The algorithm to calculate the weight of a tree is37 as follows :
W=0.25D2H (For trees with D<11) W=0.15D2H (For trees with D>=11)
Where W = Above-ground weight of the tree in pounds; D = Diameter of the trunk in inches; H = Height of the tree in feet
The average trunk diameter and height38 of the Huangshan pine trees are 24 cm (9.45 inches) and 19 m (62.34 feet), respectively. Using the above algorithm, the average above-ground weight of the Huangshan pine trees is estimated to be 1671 pounds.
(ii) Determinaiton of the dry weight of the tree. According to a publication from the University of Nebraska39, the average tree is 72.5% dry matter and 27.5% moisture. Thus, the average dry weight of the Huangshan pine tree equals to 1211 pounds (72.5% of the above ground weight).
(iii) Determination of the weight of CO2 sequestered in the tree.
35 Forestry Ministry, Huangshan Municipal Government Public Notice, 2019. 36 The National Computational Science Leadership Program (http://www.ncsec.org/cadre2/team18_2/students/purpose.html) and The Shodor Education Foundation (http://www.shodor.org/succeedhi/succeedhi/weightree/teacher/activities.html) 37 “Total-Tree Weight, Stem Weight, and Volume Tables for Hardwood Species in the Southeast,” Alexander Clark III, Joseph R. Saucier, and W. Henry McNab, Research Division, Georgia Forestry Commission, January 1986. 38 “Establishment of high distribution model of Pinus taiwanensis based on DBH distribution model”, CHEN Ming-jiu, Journal of Ningde Teachers College (Natural Science), 2018 39 “Heating With Wood: Producing, Harvesting and Processing Firewood,” Scott DeWald, Scott Josiah, and Becky Erdkamp, University of Nebraska – Lincoln Extension, Institute of Agriculture and Natural Resources, March 2005. Doc. No. 10-02118017 Rev.1 Page 25
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The average carbon content is generally 50% of the tree’s total volume40. Thus, the average weight of carbon in a Huangshan pine tree is 605.6 pounds (50% of the dry weight). Considering the weight of CO2 to C, CO2 sequestered in the tree equals to 2221 pounds (1007 kg).
60 Estimation of carbon sequestration in the component. The dead pine trees infected by pest are burnt to control the spread of pest and disease. The carbon sequestrated in the tree emits back to the atmosphere after burning. Assuming the pine tree infection rate in Huangshan area is reduced by 80% due to strengthened forest monitoring and disease prevention measures, the estimated 18,428 pines (80% of 23,035 dead pines in 2018) will be saved per year and the carbon sequestered will amount to 18,557 tons CO2 annually. The pine forest disease prevention project will provide additional carbon sequestration of 463,925 tons CO2 for the project period 25 years.
7 Summary of Climate Finance 61 Climate finance is the sum of financing provided for project elements that contribute to mitigation and/or adaptation. The estimation of climate finance was provided by the project preparatory TA consultant according to FSR and ADB guides.41
7.1 Climate Adaptation Cost Estimate 62 Climate adaptation activities are those designed to address the current and future impacts of climate change, which are identified as material to the context of the activities. Three-Step Method were applied to determine eligible adaptation activities in the project (Table 11). There are two main categories of eligible adaptation activities:
Table 11 : Determining eligible climate adaptation activities in the project through Three- step Method
Step 1. Climate 2. Statement of Intent 3. Link Between Project Vulnerability Activities and Identified Context Climate Vulnerability Sponge city Intense high and/or Enhance urban flooding The sponge city facilities, facilities low quantity of and drought resilience including ecological stormwater precipitation, through sponge city catchpit, ecological tree pit and resulting in flooding facilities installed in the porous pavement, are applied or drought urban infrastructure in the construction of urban drainage, pavement and flood control. Forest health Increased frequency improved forest fire (1) Forestry monitoring and monitoring and of forest fires and management and warning system disease pest/disease pest/disease outbreak (2) Quarantine and prevention outbreaks management pest/disease prevention (3) Pest/disease mitigation and management (4) Information system for pine tree disease control Constructed Extreme weather Establishment of a Wetland areas with vegetation wetland with high buffer zone for and water reservoir to reduce temperature and/or biodiversity and water impacts of drought extended period of would help reinforce resilience against water
40 “Carbon Storage and Accumulation in United States Forest Ecosystems, General Technical Report W0-59,” Richard A. Birdsey, United States Department of Agriculture Forest Service, Northeastern Forest Experiment Station, Radnor, PA, August 1992. 41 ADB 2016 Guidance Note on Counting Climate Finance; Feasibility Study Reports and Cost Estimates for the project, Huangshan Municipality. Doc. No. 10-02118017 Rev.1 Page 26
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Step 1. Climate 2. Statement of Intent 3. Link Between Project Vulnerability Activities and Identified Context Climate Vulnerability dry seasons would shortage and extreme cause drought droughts Smart Flooding, adverse Enhanced capacity of Flooding monitoring and Hydrology weather with monitoring, forecast, early warning of Smart Information extreme heat and early warning for Hydrology System System flooding and water environment deterioration.
63 Sponge city facilities. In the urban drainage system upgrade and pavement construction, only specific cost of sponge city facilities is counted as climate adaptation cost. ADB financing of €5.8 million (total cost of sponge city facilities €10.1 million) is counted as climate adaptation finance. Details are given in the Table 12.
64 Forest health monitoring and disease prevention. The subproject contributes to both climate change adaptation and mitigation, and is regards as dual benefit project according to Sec. 26 of the Guidance Note on Counting Climate Finance. Therefore, half of ADB financing for this subproject (3.3 € million, 50 % of total cost) is counted as climate adaptation finance.
65 Constructed wetland. The total cost of wetland construction and rehabilitation in the project is counted as climate adaptation cost and estimated to be €0.9 million. The ADB financing of € 0.55 million (61% of wetland associated cost) is counted as climate adaptation finance.
66 Smart Hydrology Information System. The monitoring and forewarning system for water resource management is counted as climate adaptation cost. ADB financing of €1.4 million (50% of smart hydrology system’s cost) is counted as climate adaptation finance.
Table 12 : Detailed cost estimate of climate adaptation Project Climate adaptation Estimated cost ADB financed Subproject No activity (€) cost (€) SCF - porous 1,410,364 860,322 pavement SCF - ecological Sewage and Stormwater 33,953 20,711 stormwater catchpit 1A-1 Sewer Upgrade Project SCF - ecological in Huizhou District 1,057,773 645,241 tree pit SCF - First flush 910,742 555,553 manhole SCF - porous 123,407 61,703 pavement Sewage and Stormwater SCF - ecological 1A-2 Sewer Upgrade Project 5,942 2,971 stormwater catchpit in Huangshan District SCF - ecological 185,110 92,555 tree pit SCF - porous 161,487 98,507 pavement Sewage and Stormwater SCF - ecological 1A-3 Sewer Upgrade Project 7,809 4,764 stormwater catchpit in Xiuning County SCF - ecological 242,230 147,760 tree pit SCF - ecological Sewage and Stormwater 185,110 112,917 tree pit 1A-4 Sewer Upgrade Project SCF - First flush in Yi County 69,108 42,156 manhole
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Project Climate adaptation Estimated cost ADB financed Subproject No activity (€) cost (€) SCF - porous 1,057,773 645,241 pavement SCF - ecological Sewage and Stormwater 86,411 52,711 stormwater catchpit 1A-5 Sewer Upgrade Project SCF - ecological in She County 1,586,659 967,862 tree pit SCF – stormwater 195,884 119,489 garden SCF - porous 1,217,431 608,716 pavement Sewage and Stormwater SCF - ecological 1A-6 Sewer Upgrade Project 49,232 24,616 stormwater catchpit in Qimen County SCF - ecological 1,551,400 775,700 tree pit Total for sponge city facilities 10,137,824 5,839,495 Tourism Infrastructure Improvement along wetland park 2A-6 658,170 401,483 Xin’an River in She development County Xin’an River Green Agriculture wetland 2B-1 245,508 149,760 Demonstration Project in rehabilitation She County Total for constructed wetland 903,677 551,243 Monitoring and 1,060,123 530,062 response system Inspection and 1,882,052 941,026 Prevention System Pine forest disease 2B-3 Disease control prevention project 9,976,363 4,988,182 system Information management 469,076 234,538 system 50% cost for forest management 6,693,807 3,346,904 Smart River Monitoring System of 4A-1 2,803,228 1,401,614 Huangshan Total 20,538,537 11,139,256 SCF= Sponge City Facilities, ADB= Asian Development Bank Source: The cost break down is provided in the feasibility study report.
7.2 Climate Mitigation Cost Estimate 67 Climate mitigation activities are those that promote efforts to reduce, avoid, or sequester the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Detailed mitigation activities and cost estimates are presented in the table 13.
(1) Eco-compensation scheme of green farming
68 The scheme will promote green agricultural practices, resulting in reduction of fertilizer use and non-CO2 GHG emissions from agricultural practices. The whole project, including the scheme implementation and the supporting consultancy services, is considered a mitigation project per Subcategory 4.1 of the Mitigation Typology and per the list of eligible mitigation activities under the Guidance Note on Counting Climate Finance in Agriculture. The ADB financing of €4.16 million (50% of the total cost) is counted as mitigation finance.
69 As analysed in the SD Huangshan Eco-compensation Scheme Design of Greener Tea Production, the nitrogen fertilizer of tea farming in Huangshan is currently applied at 277 kg
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N/ha/year with only 20% efficiency. Assuming 40% nitrogen fertilizers are finally emitted from agricultural soil to the ambient air in the form of N2O, the tea farming land generates 174 kg N2O/ha annually. Assuming eco-compensation reduces 10% pollutants and takes effect in around 4500 ha, 42 the GHG emission reduction is expected to be 78.3 ton N2O per year (23,333 ton CO2 equivalent ).
(2) Carbon bio-sequestration through plantation
70 The vegetation plantation component (including new green lands and improved croplands) in the project that will contribute to carbon bio-sequestration qualify as a mitigation component following Subcategory 4.2 of the Mitigation Typology and per list of eligible mitigation activities under the Guidance Note on Counting Climate Finance in Land-use. The ADB financing of €1.17 million (total vegetation plantation cost €1,98 million) is counted as mitigation finance. The carbon sequestration potential from vegetation plantation and improved croplands is estimated at 3666.7 tCO2e per year (See Table 13).
(3) Forest health monitoring and disease prevention
71 As explained under section 6.2.2 and para 60 above, this activity leads to a reduction of 463,925 tons CO2 for the project period 25 years. Under Sec. 26 of the Guidance Note on Counting Climate Finance, this may qualify as a dual benefit project. Therefore, half of ADB financing for this subproject (€3.3 million, 50 % of total cost) is counted as climate change mitigation finance.
Table 13 : Detailed cost estimate of climate mitigation ADB estimated Project financed Subproject Climate mitigation activity cost No cost (million €) (million €) Village Environment 2A-4 Improvement Project in New green land 3000m2 0.08 0.04 Xinhua Village Village Environment 2A-5 Improvement Project in She New green land 9000m2 0.23 0.14 County Tourism Infrastructure 2A-6 Improvement along Xin'an New green land 6674 m2 0.17 0.11 River (She County Section) Urban River Rehabilitation 1B-1 New green land 6000m2 0.19 0.11 Project in Yi County Caocun River Rehabilitation 1B-2 New green land 4800 m2 0.09 0.05 Project in Xinhua Village Xi'an River Green Agriculture New green land 650m2 0.02 0.01 2B-1 Demonstration Project in She Improved farming land 1.3 × 107 m2 1.04 0.63 County Xinhua Villiage Green New green land 300 m2 0.03 0.01 2B-2 Agriculture Demonstration Improved farming land 6.8 × 106 m2 0.14 0.07 Project in Huangshan District Sub-total for carbon bio-sequestration 1.98 1.17 Monitoring and response system 1.06 0.53 Pine forest disease prevention Inspection and Prevention System 1.88 0.94 2B-3 project Disease control system 9.98 4.99 Information management system 0.47 0.23 50% cost for forest management 6.69 3.35 3-2 Green Incentive Fund 7.44 3.72
42 EPA GHG Equivalent Calculator, https://www.epa.gov/energy/greenhouse-gas-equivalencies-calculator Doc. No. 10-02118017 Rev.1 Page 29
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ADB estimated Project financed Subproject Climate mitigation activity cost No cost (million €) (million €) Certification Study on 4B-4 Huangshan Eco- 0.44 0.22 Green Farming Eco-compensation Compensation Pilot Project piloting project Green Incentive Fund 4B-6 0.44 0.22 Feasibility Study Sub-total for Eco-compensation scheme of green farming 8.31 4.16 Total 16.98 8.67 Source: The cost break down is provided in the feasibility study report.
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8 Risks and Opportunities 72 The Huangshan sub-projects are initiated and planned individually for the needs of each different counties and districts. It is important and essential to consider in a holistic manner in some global and bigger issue such as, climate change, the municipality will be impacted by extreme weather from all directions.
73 The Risks i. It is vulnerable to climate change, like, storms, flooding, extreme weather in drought in various degree; ii. Climate change causes financial damage too; storms, flooding, drought can lead to major disruption in water supply, transportation, electricity/gas supply which is detrimental to business operation as well as city revenue; iii. It is hazard to urban growth with the rising of GHGs and larger city has a ravenous appetite for energy.
Figure 17: Flood in Huangshan city 13 July 2019 by Xinhuanet.com
74 The Opportunities i. It can develop a greener way to live; ii. Project development for a better quality of life, lower carbon footprint and promote a more green/sustainable transportation option, like cycling and walking.
75 The recommendations. Climate change recommendations are those designed to address the current and future impacts of climate change, which are identified as material to the context of the activities. The major recommendations are listed below:
(1) Vision: for a Climate-resilient and Low-carbon City 76 The Government of Huangshan, the project team and it’s design professionals could seek an opportune to adopt a well-knitted common stand to combat the risk of climate change with an vision inspiring for a betterment of future generations. i. To enhance the natural environment and green space of the municipality; ii. To shape the build-up areas and urban renewal areas to withstand future climate change impacts; iii. To strengthen climate change resilience early forewarning system; iv. To protect and upgrade tourism economy; v. To embrace, continuously, for adaptation capacities and expertise; vi. To maintain and upkeep local inheritance, walkability, water-friendly culture.
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Figure 18: Development with enhanced local activities/water sport
(2) Interconnected Green Corridor 77 The main objective of these drainage/sewerage sub-projects being brought forward are to revitalize Huangshan’s water bodies, namely, Huizhou District, Huangshan District, Xiuning County, Yi County, She County and Qimen County. In the proposal, many miles new and old pipes will be replaced and laid within the districts and counties in a fragmented manner. The construction trenches, pipe cover and manhole access could be laid green with landscape. Neighbouring districts and counties can further interconnected by footpaths, trails or cycle tracks, with an aim to enhance i) flooding prevention; ii) connectivity for sponge city facilities and constructed wetland; iii) walkability/waterfront cultural facilities. The proposal is an interconnecting node helps bring the kaleidoscopic patchwork of landscape, constructed wetland, sponge city facilities within one county/district to be communicating across it’s border to another forming one exuberance nature of Huangshan municipality as a whole. Similar interconnected green garden city concept is well received and applied successfully in Singapore, Sao Paulo and Adelaide. It is not only connecting many green spaces together, but also allowing locals to connect together with a green and user-friendly water-front transport route.
Figure 19: Enhanced interconnected green corridor with green landscaping node and walkable trail/cycle track linkage
(3) Overall Smart Management for Climate Change 78 Climate change extreme weather is detrimental to Huangshan, a holistic Smart IT system is far more useful than a fragmented system: i) detect underlying problems before they have an adverse effect; ii) detect problems that affect the city’s productivity; iii) collect data
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TA-9311 PRC: Preparing Yangtze River Economic Belt Projects - Anhui Huangshan Xin’an River Ecological Protection and Green Development Project Climate Vulnerability Assessment and Management Report when a problem occurs for the first time; iv) allow to establish a baseline for comparison; v) store information for future use in problem diagnosis; vi) display information for the benefit of day-to-day management vii) detect situations that require additional data collection; vii) tracking changes made to the system and applications. Data involve i) general weather: temperature, rainfall, storms, precipitation, relative humidity; ii) physical infrastructure: river flood water level, stormwater flow, treatment water level; iii) public utilities conditions: electricity supply/demand, water supply; iv) transport traffic conditions: road flooding level, drainage; v) major climatic disaster incidents.
79 Smart management is a monitoring involves a systematic collection of data for the purpose of detecting the baseline. Monitoring data are compared against trend indicators comprising on "action level" and "limit level" of quality performance limits. Should monitoring results go beyond these limits, action will be taken according to the action plan set for these limits. For the purpose of management monitoring, quality performance limits are normally in the form of a set of action / limit levels, which are defined as: Action Levels - the levels beyond which there is an indication of a deteriorating ambient situation. Appropriate remedial actions may be necessary to prevent the quality from going beyond the limit levels, which would be unacceptable. Limit Levels - the levels beyond which the works/production shall not proceed without appropriate remedial action, including a critical review of plant and work methods.
Table 14 : Summary of Recommendations
Recommendation 1. Climate 2. Statement of 3. Link Between Project Vulnerability Intent Activities and Identified Context Climate Vulnerability Vision: for a A consistent line of Seek support and To promote and well- Climate-resilient common align agreement communicate both laterally and Low-carbon understanding/ amongst various and vertically the agreed City action to combat counties and districts climate change vision for a climate change for a climate-resilient holistic and consistent and low-carbon city approach to fight against extreme weather Interconnected Intense high Improve green To map out interconnected Green Corridor and/or low quantity connectivity, enlarge green corridors, links and of precipitation, the extent of green nodes connecting resulting in cover ratio for quality landscape, constructed flooding, drought, walkability waterfront wetland, at grade drainage extreme heat trails/cycle tracks lines, sponge city facilities, river banks for i) Huizhou District, ii) Huangshan District, iii) Xiuning County, iv) Yi County, v) She County and vi) Qimen County. Overall Smart Extreme weather Monitoring, forecast, Overall Smart management Management for with high and early warning for system is proposed for Climate Change temperature global warming online monitoring and and/or extended action management plan to period of dry minimize impacts seasons would cause drought, storm/flood, forest fire
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Appendix 1: Subproject List
No. Subprojects Construction content
Output 1: Urban point source pollution management facilities installed A – Urban Drainage System Upgrade 1) install 28.04km of sewage pipes (open cut); 2) install 3.14km of stormwater drainage pipes (open cut); Sewage and Stormwater Sewer 3) construct one wastewater pump station; 1A-1 Upgrade Project in Huizhou 4) construct 21.27km of stormwater ditches; District 5) construct 60,000 m2 of porous pavement on sidewalk, 3000 ecological tree pits, and 400 gutter inlets during road surface restoration. 1) install 3.25km of sewage interception main (open cut); Sewage and Stormwater Sewer 2) install 1.87km of stormwater drainage pipes (open cut); 1A-2 Upgrade Project in Huangshan 3) construct 5,250 m2 of porous pavement on sidewalk, 525 District ecological tree pits, and 70 gutter inlets during road surface restoration. 1) renovate 4.38km of sewage main pipes along Binjiang Rd (pipe- jacking); Sewage and Stormwater Sewer 2) install 12.37km of sewage pipes (open cut); 1A-3 Upgrade Project in Xiuning 3) install 3.39km of stormwater drainage pipes (open cut); County 4) construct 6,870 m2 of porous pavement on sidewalk, 687 ecological tree pits, and 92 gutter inlets during road surface restoration 1) renovate 4.3km of sewage interceptor along Hexi Rd (pipe- Sewage and Stormwater Sewer jacking); 1A-4 Upgrade Project in Yi County 2) install 1.75km of sewage pipes (open cut); 3) construct 525 ecological tree pits. 1) renovate 9.22km of sewage pipes (open cut); 2) install 20.23km of sewage pipes (open cut); 3) install 25.45km of stormwater drainage pipes (open cut); Sewage and Stormwater Sewer 1A-5 4) install 1.43km of stormwater pipe culverts (open cut); Upgrade Project in She County 5) construct 45,000 m2 of porous pavement on sidewalk, 4,500 ecological tree pits, and 1,018 gutter inlets during road surface restoration. 1) renovate 10.22km of sewage pipes (open cut); 2) install 6.65km of sewage pipes (open cut); Sewage and Stormwater Sewer 3) install 14.51km of stormwater drainage pipes (open cut); 1A-6 Upgrade Project in Qimen 4) clean-up 2.42km of stormwater pipe culverts; County 5) construct 51,792 m2 of porous pavement on sidewalk, 3,960 ecological tree pits, and 580 gutter inlets during road surface restoration B-River Rehabilitation 1) construct river revetment in section from Jiudong Bridge to Zhang River Rehabilitation Project Dongmen Bridge (1.1 km); 1B-1 in Yi County 2) ecological landscaping improvement along Zhang River (3,200m2) and construction of 1.52km walkway. Rehabilitate and upgrade a 3.85 km section of flood control channel Caocun River Rehabilitation Project 1B-2 that starts from downstream of Dashankeng Reservoir and ends at in Huangshan District the confluence point of Caocun River and Xinhua River. Output 2: Rural point and non-point source pollution control enhanced A-Rural Environment Infrastructure Improvement For 32 natural villages: 1) install 41.42km of water supply pipes; Village Environment 2) construct 27 onsite wastewater treatment stations; 2A-1 Improvement Project in Xiuning 3) construct 2 wastewater pumping stations; County 4) install 67.11km of sewage pipes; 5) construct 16,848m2 of landscape walkway; 6) construct 3,000m2 of parking lot;
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No. Subprojects Construction content
7) construct 6 landscape pavilions and 10 lookouts. Village Environment For 8 natural villages: 2A-2 Improvement Project in Huizhou 1) construct 13 onsite wastewater treatment stations; District 2) install 5.67km of sewage pipes; For 54 natural villages: Village Environment 1) construct 4 onsite wastewater treatment stations; 2A-3 Improvement Project in Tunxi 2) install 50.8km of sewage pipes; District 3) construct 22 wastewater pump stations. For 7 natural villages: 1) construct 16 onsite wastewater treatment stations; Xinhua Village Environment 2) install 8.9km of sewage pipes; 2A-4 Improvement Project in Huangshan 3) construct 15,000m2 of walkway; District 4) road greening of 3,000m2; 5) construct 800m2 of parking lots; 6) construct 2 tourism toilets. For 20 natural villages: 1) construct 25 onsite wastewater treatment stations; 2) install 39km of sewage pipes; Xitou Village Environment 3) install 59.68km of water supply pipes; 2A-5 Improvement Project in She 4) construct 4,800m2 of walkway; County 5) landscape development of 450m2; 6) road greening of 3,000m2 and landscape of 6,000m2; 7) construct 600m2 of parking lots. A total of 10 villages and towns are involved: Environmental Infrastructure Construct 8,452 m2 of parking lots and other supporting facilities for 2A-6 Improvement along Xin'an River in eco-tourism development, including walkways, observation She County platforms, tourism toilets, landscape development, tourists rest stations, retaining walls, solid waste collection bins, etc. B - Non-point source pollution control 1) improve the agricultural infrastructure and tourism reception facilities in Nanping Village Characteristic Agricultural Park Xin’an River Green Agriculture (2000 mu), Takeng Citrus Demonstration Park (3000 mu) and 2B-1 Demonstration Project in She Miantan Loquat Demonstration Park (1500 mu) in Huicheng County Town, She County; 2) promote soil test formulated fertilization, application of organic fertilizer and solar energy powered insecticidal lamps, etc. 1) upgrade the agricultural infrastructure in Baishabao Lei Bamboo Ecological Demonstration Park (1000 mu), Xinchang Lei Bamboo Ecological Demonstration Park (700 mu) and Xinhua Oil Tea Ecological Demonstration Park (120 mu); Xinhua Village Green Agriculture 2) construct 650m main road and 5.24km walkway within the parks 2B-2 Demonstration Project in for daily agriculture activities and sightseeing; Huangshan District 3) construct tourism facilities, including parking lots, tourism toilets, lookouts, etc. 4) promote soil test formulated fertilization, application of organic fertilizer and solar energy powered insecticidal lamps, etc.
1) long-distance video monitoring and unmanned aerial vehicle monitoring of pinewood, and personnel training; 2) procurement of quarantine inspection equipment and Pine Forest Disease Prevention pulverisers; 2B-3 Project 3) tree trunk injection for healthy pine trees (900,000 tree-time) and chemical control of pine wilt by applying environmentally friendly chemicals (70,000 hm2); 4) development of an information management system for pine wilt control in Huangshan. Output 3: Green finance and eco-compensation mechanism piloted
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TA-9311 PRC: Preparing Yangtze River Economic Belt Projects - Anhui Huangshan Xin’an River Ecological Protection and Green Development Project Climate Vulnerability Assessment and Management Report
No. Subprojects Construction content
The Fund targets sustainable companies and partners which needs 3-1 Green Fund capital for investing into projects supporting the green agenda of Huangshan Municipality. 1) select 20,000 mu of main polluted areas for development of pilot green tea plantations; 2) establish technical standard for green production in tea gardens; Greener Tea Production Eco- 3-1 3) establish “green” tea production certification system; Compensation Scheme 4) evaluate the production, cost, revenue, ecological benefits and compensation standard for green production in tea gardens; 5) build good brand and establish green marketing system; project experience dissemination. Output 4: Capacity for ecological system and project management strengthened A-Monitoring and Management System 1) develop an intelligent water resources management network; 2) develop an intelligent cloud service center; Smart River Monitoring System 3) develop an intelligent water resources application integration 4A-1 of Huangshan system; 4) develop standard and regulation system, safeguard system and operation and maintenance safeguard system. 1) an eco-environmental monitoring network; 2) a basic database of eco-environment; Smart Environment Monitoring 3) a comprehensive evaluation system of eco-environment; 4A-2 System in Qimen County 4) multiple monitoring platforms, including environmental quality monitoring platform, pollution source automatic monitoring platform, etc. Smart EHS Management Construction of Internet of Things system, application support 4A-3 System in Huizhou District platform, data support system, standards and specifications, Industrial Park integrated business application system, etc. Smart EHS Management Construction of Internet of Things system, application support 4A-4 System in She County Industrial platform, data support system, standards and specifications, Park integrated business application system, etc. MIS/GIS database, communications, and programs at Huangshan Huangshan MIS Top Layer 4A-5 Municipal Smart Management System to support overall smart city System Project management system. A GIS and program for environmental, health and safety (EHS) Huangshan Smart EHS General 4A-6 administration, management, monitoring, and emergency response System systems for industrial parks and factories. B-Technical Support 1) study and establish statistical indicators of eco-compensation; 2) propose accounting methods of compensation standards; Study on Evaluation of Xin’an 3) study the compensation benefits evaluation; 4B-1 River Eco-compensation 4) Hiring individual consultants: international project management and rural wastewater specialist, social specialist and environmental specialist. Rural Wastewater Discharge 4B-2 Research on sewage discharge standard in rural areas. Standard Study Green Economic Development 4B-3 Strategic Study and Planning for Strategic study for green development in Huangshan Ecological Huangshan City Greener Tea Production Eco- Research on the standard certification system of green tea 4B-4 compensation Certification plantations. Program She County Household Pig 4B-5 Pilot study for household pig manure management Manure Management Study Green Incentive Fund Feasibility 4B-6 Study C-Project Management Doc. No. 10-02118017 Rev.1 Page 36
TA-9311 PRC: Preparing Yangtze River Economic Belt Projects - Anhui Huangshan Xin’an River Ecological Protection and Green Development Project Climate Vulnerability Assessment and Management Report
No. Subprojects Construction content
1) Project implementation supporting consulting service. Project Management Consulting 2) External social and resettlement compliance monitoring 4C-1 Service 3) Dissemination of project experiences 4) Project Start-up Consultancy before Loan Implementation 5) trainings provided by project implementation supporting Huangshan Training for consultants; 4C-2 Capacity Strengthening 6) project management trainings provided by ADB; 7) study tours. 1) Project Information Management System: covering contract management, budget management, cost management, fund management, risk management, progress management, quality 4C-3 Office Equipment Supply management, safety management, etc. 2) office supplies such as computers, printers and photocopiers in project management offices. Construction Supervision 4C-4 Recruitment of agencies for construction supervision. Service
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