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Ozone Depletion Due to Increasing Anthropogenic Trace Gas Emissions: Role of Stratospheric Chemistry and Implications for Future Climate

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Ozone Depletion Due to Increasing Anthropogenic Trace Gas Emissions: Role of Stratospheric Chemistry and Implications for Future Climate Vol. 1: 85-95, 1991 CLIMATE RESEARCH Published April 14 Clim. Res. Ozone depletion due to increasing anthropogenic trace gas emissions: role of stratospheric chemistry and implications for future climate M. Lal*,T. Holt Climatic Research Unit, University of East Anglia, Norwich NR4 7TJ,United Kingdom ABSTRACT: The response of the atmosphere to increasing emissions of radatively active trace gases (COz,CH,, N20, o3and CFCs) is calculated by means of a l-dimensional coupled chemical-radiative- transport model. We identify the sign and magnitude of the feedback between the chemistry and thermal structure of the atmosphere by examining steady state changes in stratospheric ozone and surface temperature in response to perturbations in trace gases of anthropogenic origin. Next, we assess the possible decline in stratospheric ozone and its effect on troposphere-stratosphere temperature trends for the period covering the pre-industrial era to the present. Future trends are also considered using projected 'business-as-usual' trace gas scenario (scenario BAU) and that expected as a result of global phase-out of production of CFCs by the year 2000 (scenario MP). The numerical experiments take account of the effect of stratospheric aerosol loading due to volcanic eruptions and the influence of the thermal inertia of the ocean. Results indicate that the trace gas increase from the period 1850 to 1986 could already have contributed to a 3 to 10 % decline in stratospheric ozone and that this decline is expected to become more pronounced by the year 2050, amounting to a 43 % ozone loss at 40 km for the scenario BAU. The total column ozone Increase of 1.5% obtained in our model calculations for the present-day atmosphere is likely to change sign with time leading to a net decrease of 12.7 % by the middle of next century. The equilibrium surface warming for the period 1850 to 1986 is found to be 0.7 K and our calculations indicate that thls warming will reach 2.6 K by the year 2050. As a result of radiative- chemical interactions, a large stratospheric cooling (16.4 K) is likely by the middle of the next century. In case the control measures on production of CFCs as laid down in the London Amendment of the Montreal Protocol are implemented by all countries and a global phase-out of CFCs takes place by the year 2000, the ozone loss at 40 km could be restricted to 17 % by the year 2050 (net column decrease of only 2.9%). This would, however, only marginally reduce the stratospheric cooling to 12.6 K. The greenhouse warming at the surface expected by the middle of the next century with enforcement of the Montreal Protocol restrictions is likely to be 2 K. INTRODUCTION lead to a substantial reduction in the density of strato- spheric ozone with consequent climatic effects. Trace gases play an important role in the atmosphere Recent findings linking the rise in chlorine (a by- through their interaction with solar and terrestrial radi- product of extensive CFC build-up in the atmosphere ation and consequent effects on global climate. There over the past 3 decades) and oxides of nitrogen (due to has been much concern that increased anthropogenic emissions from aircraft) to the destruction of strato- release of trace gases such as COz, CH4, N20 and spheric ozone (Prather & Watson 1990) have stimulated chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) from industrial, agricul- renewed interest in the development of interactive tural and domestic activities will, in addition to enhan- chemistry-climate models. Such models may be used to cing the greenhouse effect, significantly modify the diagnose the combined effect of physical and chemical chemical composition of the atmosphere. This could processes, thus including both direct and indirect radiative effects, and to assess potential changes associated with future trace gas emissions to the atmos- ' Visiting Scientist. Permanent affiliation is with the Centre for Atmospheric Sciences, Indian Institute of Technology, phere. However, modelling the behaviour of minor 110016 New Delhi, India trace constituents in the atmosphere is a difficult task if O Inter-Research/Printed in Germany 86 Clim. Res. 1: 85-95, 1991 radiative, chemical and dynamical processes are taken as the oceanic mixed layer, while the lower layer into account simultaneously. Until recently, only a few extends to 500 m. The atmospheric mixed layer is cou- 3-dimensional modelling studies with explicit chemis- pled to the oceanic mixed layer through the energy try have been reported and most of these have a limited balance equation. Starting with a prescribed vertical number of reactions in their chemical schemes distribution of temperature, cloud altitude and fraction, (Cariolle & Deque 1986, Rose 1986, Rood et al. 1987, and chemical composition of the atmosphere, the Kaye & Rood 1989). Due to the exceedingly large com- photochemical sources and sinks and the associated puting requirements of such models it could be many solar and thermal flux divergences are computed for years before a 3-dimensional photochemical-climate each layer using a time-marching method to infer the model, incorporating mutually-interactive radiative, surface and atmospheric temperatures. To account for chemical and dynamical components as well as the upward heat transfer we adapt the moist adiabatic exchange processes within the ocean-atmosphere sys- adjustment scheme in the model troposphere to ensure tem, can be developed. Simplified approaches using 1- that the column undergoing convective adjustment and 2-dimensional models to study the sensitivity of conserves mass, internal energy and moist static global climate to increases in anthropogenic trace gas energy. The model has fixed relative humidity and the emissions have, therefore, been followed extensively in mixing ratio of water vapour is computed as a function the past (Briihl & Crutzen 1984, 1988, Wang & Molnar of temperature. The radiative effects of optically active 1985, Vupputuri 1988, Kinnison et al. 1988, La1 & Jain trace gases, namely CO2, 03,CH4, N20 and CFCs, are 1989). These models include detailed representahons treated in addition to that of water vapour. of atmospheric radiative and/or chemical processes, The solar radiation absorbed by the model atmo- giving a better understanding of the basic greenhouse sphere is parametrized as a function of altitude such mechanisms by which atmospheric trace gases warm that the form of the solution and the coefficients the Earth's surface so that the effects can be scaled involved are based on accurate multiple scattering appropriately in complex 3-dimensional general circu- computations. The parametrization is a function of the lation models (GCMs) (La1 & Ramanathan 1984). zenith angle of the Sun, the albedo of the Earth's To obtain a new perspective on the effect of strato- surface, water vapour distribution, CO2 and O3 dis- spheric chlorine and nitrogen on ozone photochem- tributions, and the cloud cover. The band absorptance istry, and its implications for the thermal structure formulation of Lacis & Hansen (1974) for H20 and O3 is of the Earth-atmosphere system, we have developed used. The formulation of Ramanathan & Cess (1974) a l-dimensional coupled chemical-radiative-transport has been adopted to account for the CO2 band. Solar model. This model has been adapted in this study to heating due to reflection by clouds and the surface is investigate the possible effect of past to present also included. Rayleigh scattering due to air molecules anthropogenic emissions of major trace gases on and Mie scattering due to aerosols have been incorpo- atmospheric ozone and the contribution of ozone to rated following the approximation to the Adding greenhouse warming. Using future projections of trace scheme (Cess et al. 1981). gases under the 'business-as-usual' scenario as well as Long wave radiative flux calculations use an approx- the scenario with controls on production of CFCs imate method of accounting for the integration of the restricted to 50 O/O of its 1986 level by the year 1995 and optical path length over all solid angles. The vibration- a complete phase-out by the year 2000 (scenarios BAU rotation bands of CO2 and 03,and the vibration-rota- and MP), the potential role of chemistry-radiation tion bands, pure rotation bands and continuum bands interactions on future climatic trends is also examined. of H20have been treated in terms of a combination of emissivity and band absorptance formulations. Many isotopic and hot bands for CO2, N20 and CH4 are also THE MODEL included. Radiative transfer due to the 9.6 ,pm band of O3 and the 15 pm COz band are treated according to The l-dimensional chemical-radiative-transport the band absorptance formulation of Ramanathan model developed at the Indian Institute of Technology, (1976). The exponential-sum-fitting method has been Delhi (IITD) is used in this study. The model combines applied to account for CFCs. Mutual overlap between the radiative-convective (RC) model described in La1 & H20,CO2, 03, CH4, N20 and CFCs is also accounted for Jain (1989) with a photochemical transport model. The following Kiehl & Ramanathan (1983). For further model atmosphere is divided into 16 vertical layers details on the computational aspects of the model, the extending from the surface up to 55 km and represents reader is referred to La1 & Jain (1989). the annual mean thermal structure of the global atmo- The photochemical model coupled with the RC sphere at equilibrium. The model also has 2 layers in model includes a series of relevant chemical reactions the ocean, the first being 50 m in thickness and treated responsible for altering the concentration of ozone and La1 & Holt. Ozone depletion due to trace gases 87 other trace constituents in the upper atmosphere. Table oxygen with N20 that rises from the troposphere or 1 lists the photochemical and chemical reactions consi- which is directly injected in the lower stratosphere.
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