Wolford RCB 08.03.2019
Total Page:16
File Type:pdf, Size:1020Kb
Equity Weekly The week ahead No. 10/March 7, 2019 Company events Company Country Sector Event Friday, 08/03/2019 Agora PL Consumer, cyclical 4Q Earnings Release Tuesday, 12/03/2019 Flughafen Wien AT Industrials Traffic figures PGE PL Utilities 4Q Earninigs Release Rostelecom RU Telecommunication 4Q Earninigs Release Lotos PL Oil & Gas 4Q Earnings Release Unipro RU Utilities 4Q Earnings Release Wednesday, 13/03/2019 PZU PL Financials 4Q Earninigs Release Verbund AT Utilities 4Q Earninigs Release Thursday, 14/03/2019 CCC PL Consumer, cyclical Annual report publication Energa PL Utilities 1Q Earnings Release Lenzing AT Basic Materials 4Q Earninigs Release Oesterreichische Post AT Industrials 4Q Earninigs Release PGNiG PL Oil & Gas Annual report publication GetBack PL Diversified financials EGM RusHydro RU Utilities 4Q Earninigs Release Enel Russia RU Utilities 4Q Earninigs Release Friday, 15/03/2019 BAWAG Group AT Financials Annual report publication Wolford AT Consumer, cyclical 3Q Earnings Release Important: Please read the references at the end of this report to possible conflicts of interest and disclaimers/disclosures. Equity Weekly Main macro Friday, 08/03/2019 RU: Women's Day UA: Women's Day DE: Factory Orders, Factory Orders WDA CZ: Average Real Monthly Wage, Share of Unemployed 15-65 RU: Money Supply Narrow Def HU: CPI, Budget Balance BU: Industrial Production, Retail Sales HR: Trade Balance US: Change in Nonfarm Payrolls, Two-Month Payroll Net Revision US: Change in Private Payrolls, Change in Manufact. Payrolls US: Unemployment Rate, Average Hourly Earnings US: Average Weekly Hours All Employees US: Labor Force Participation Rate, Underemployment Rate US: Wholesale Inventories, Wholesale Trade Sales Monday, 11/03/2019 DE: Industrial Production SA, Industrial Production WDA DE: Trade Balance, Current Account Balance, Labor Costs SA DE: Exports SA, Imports SA, Labor Costs WDA SK: Trade Balance, Industrial Production, Construction Constant CZ: Trade Balance National Concept, CPI, Export Price Index CZ: Import Price Index PL: National Bank of Poland Publishes Inflation Report HU: Trade Balance SI: Industrial Production, Retail Sales US: Business Inventories, Trade Balance UA: PPI Tuesday, 12/03/2019 RO: CPI, Trade Balance SI: Trade Balance US: NFIB Small Business Optimism, CPI Core Index SA HR: PPI RS: Consumer Price Index RS: Trade Balance US: CPI, CPI Ex Food and Energy, CPI Index NSA US: Real Avg Weekly Earnings, Real Avg Hourly Earning RU: Budget Balance Wednesday, 13/03/2019 RO: Wages Net, Industrial Output SK: Average Real Monthly Wage, Industrial Sales BU: Trade Balance EC: Industrial Production SA, Industrial Production WDA HR: Retail Trade Real US: MBA Mortgage Applications, PPI Final Demand US: PPI Ex Food and Energy, PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade US: PPI Final Demand RU: CPI Weekly, CPI HU: Hungarian Central Bank's Minutes DE: Wholesale Price Index Important: Please read the references at the end of this report to possible conflicts of interest and disclaimers/disclosures. 2 Equity Weekly Thursday, 14/03/2019 DE: CPI, CPI EU Harmonized RO: Industrial Sales SK: CPI CZ: Retail Sales, Retail Sales ex Auto BU: CPI UA: Key Rate US: Import Price Index, Retail Sales Advance US: Import Price Index ex Petroleum, Retail Sales Ex Auto US: Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas, Export Price Index US: Retail Sales Control Group, Initial Jobless Claims US: Continuing Claims, Bloomberg Consumer Comfort RU: Gold and Forex Reserve, Imports, Exports, Trade Balance US: Business Inventories Friday, 15/03/2019 HU: National Holiday SK: Industrial Orders, CPI EU Harmonized CZ: Construction Output, Industrial Output AT: CPI RU: Money Supply Narrow Def PL: CPI SI: Average Real Monthly Wage EC: CPI Core, CPI, EU27 New Car Registrations HR: Tourism Arrivals, CPI US: Empire Manufacturing, Industrial Production US: Capacity Utilization, Manufacturing (SIC) Production US: JOLTS Job Openings, U. of Mich. Sentiment US: U. of Mich. Current Conditions, U. of Mich. Expectations US: U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation, U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation US: Net Long-term TIC Flows, Total Net TIC Flows UA: Merchandise Trade Balance YTD BU: Unemployment Rate Important: Please read the references at the end of this report to possible conflicts of interest and disclaimers/disclosures. 3 Equity Weekly Market Statistics Index Performance 07/03/19* 1W 1M 3M 12M ytd ATX (AT) 3,013 -0.5% -1.0% 3.3% -12.6% 9.7% BUX (HU) 41,087 1.4% 1.2% 3.4% 8.1% 5.0% PX (CZ) 1,081 1.2% 1.6% 4.0% -3.6% 9.5% SBITOP (SI) 866 2.6% 4.1% 6.3% 6.8% 7.7% WIG30 (PL) 2,674 -0.3% -2.9% 2.6% -0.6% 3.6% BELEX15 (RS) 698 1.9% -0.9% -5.5% -6.7% -8.4% BETI (RO) 7,918 3.2% 6.4% -8.5% -6.1% 7.2% CROBEX (HR) 1,767 -0.8% 0.0% 3.2% -4.3% 1.0% SOFIX (BG) 583 -0.9% 1.5% -1.6% -14.5% -1.9% PFTS (UA) 560 0.0% 0.6% -2.7% 59.2% 0.1% MICEX (RU) 2,267 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% -1.6% 0.0% CECE 1,782 0.8% -1.0% 2.3% -5.7% 5.2% CTX 1,431 1.4% 1.9% 3.6% -6.0% 9.5% HTX 4,714 0.9% 0.9% 4.8% 1.8% 6.0% PTX 1,214 -0.1% -3.8% 1.1% -5.7% 2.3% ROTX 9,872 3.5% 6.4% -9.6% -6.5% 5.6% RDX 1,447 0.6% -2.0% 6.6% 4.3% 11.6% SETX 1,044 2.8% 5.0% -1.7% -3.5% 4.3% CECE Ext 1,124 1.1% -0.2% 1.3% -5.5% 5.0% *as of 6:30 AM (CET); Source: Bloomberg, Raiffeisen Centrobank Index Forecasts 06/03/19 Mar-19e Dec-19e ATX 3,013 3,150 2,900 WIG 30 2,674 2,830 2,550 BUX 41,087 42,800 38,500 PX 1,081 1,100 1,000 MOEX 2,494 2,550 2,300 BIST Nat. 100 103,453 105,000 89,500 Source: Bloomberg, RBI/Raiffeisen RESEARCH Market Data* Market value PE EPS growth in % DY in % in EUR bn 2018e 2019e 2018e 2019e 2018e 2019e ATX 82.8 10.2 10.7 2.3 4.6 4.2 4.1 WIG 30 108.1 12.5 10.8 -5.6 15.6 2.6 2.7 BUX 25.8 10.0 10.1 3.1 -1.0 2.8 2.8 PX 46.5 11.8 12.3 4.5 -4.4 4.8 5.2 MOEX 476.5 5.5 5.3 52.0 2.6 6.7 7.0 BIST Nat. 100 110.6 7.0 7.0 15.4 -1.0 4.5 4.5 Source: Bloomberg, IBES, RBI/Raiffeisen RESEARCH, * PE, growth and yield adjusted for one-offs Important: Please read the references at the end of this report to possible conflicts of interest and disclaimers/disclosures. 4 Equity Weekly Favourite Stock Selection AUSTRIA Company Price Target Current Price** Sector Market Cap (EUR mn) Date of inclusion Performance* Mayr-Melnhof EUR 137.00 EUR 117.20 Basic Materials EUR 2,344 mn 19/02/2019 -0.2% AGRANA EUR 22.00 EUR 17.42 Consumer, non-cyclical EUR 1,089 mn 19/02/2019 -0.2% OMV EUR 65.00 EUR 46.62 Oil & Gas EUR 15,219 mn 19/02/2019 1.4% Andritz EUR 51.00 EUR 43.50 Industrials EUR 4,440 mn 19/02/2019 -2.1% CEE Company Price Target Current Price** Sector Market Cap (EUR mn) Date of inclusion Performance* Bank Pekao SA PLN 133.00 PLN 110.90 Banks EUR 6,767 mn 19/02/2019 -0.7% Romgaz RON 38.00 RON 31.15 Oil & Gas EUR 2,531 mn 19/02/2019 -3.1% Cyfrowy Polsat PLN 27.00 PLN 24.60 Communication Services EUR 3,660 mn 19/02/2019 -5.0% PKP Cargo PLN 52.00 PLN 41.50 Industrials EUR 432 mn 19/02/2019 -1.1% RUSSIA Company Price Target Current Price** Sector Market Cap (EUR mn) Date of inclusion Performance* Gazprom RUB 255.00 RUB 154.20 Oil & Gas EUR 49,021 mn 19/02/2019 0.1% Yandex USD 38.10 USD 35.98 Communication Services EUR 10,513 mn 19/02/2019 9.6% Source:Reuters, Raiffeisen Centrobank *Performance since inclusion in Favourite Stock List **The indicated prices are the last prices as available at 6:30 AM (CET) on 07.03.2019 Important: Please read the references at the end of this report to possible conflicts of interest and disclaimers/disclosures. 5 Equity Weekly Tuesday, 12/03/2019 PGE 4Q 2018e Recent recommendation: Buy in PLN mn FY 18e 4Q 18e 4Q 17 yoy 3Q 18 qoq Current Price: PLN 10.61 EBITDA 6,364 1223 1542 -21% 1466 -17% Price Target: PLN 10.70 - Conventional Generation 2,938 572 698 -18% 527 9% - Renewables 463 109 125 -13% 132 -17% Reuters: PGE.WA - Distribution 2,463 571 526 9% 622 -8% - Supply 263 -196 197 n.m. 157 n.m. Bloomberg: PGE PW - Consolidation 237 167 -4 n.m. 28 n.m. EBITDA net of one-offs 6,701 1461 1651 -12% 1465 0% Net profit after minorities 1,498 -199 -360 -45% 416 n.m. Source: PGE, Raiffeisen Centrobank estimates . PGE published preliminary 4Q 18 results on March 1, 2018, which came in well below our and consensus estimates. This was mostly due to disappointing Conventional Generation earnings, which declined by 18% yoy despite a) higher output (up 10% to 16.8 TWh), b) higher achieved prices (up 8% yoy to PLN 181/MWh), and c) better heat volumes.