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Atlantic Canada at Work: Evolving Opportunities a Discussion with Statistics Canada Anil Arora, Chief Statistician of Canada Moncton, June 17, 2019

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Atlantic Canada at Work: Evolving Opportunities a Discussion with Statistics Canada Anil Arora, Chief Statistician of Canada Moncton, June 17, 2019 A Data Story on Atlantic Canada at Work: Evolving Opportunities A discussion with Statistics Canada Anil Arora, Chief Statistician of Canada Moncton, June 17, 2019 Catalogue no. 11-631-X Delivering insight through data for a better Canada ISBN 978-0-660-31434-1 Key challenges in today’s labour market Immigration and retention Global market Population uncertainty aging and work precarity Labour Increasingly Automation shortages and digital and skills economy specialization mismatch of work 1 Delivering insight through data for a better Canada Atlantic Canada at Work: Evolving Opportunities Recent trends in an evolving labour market Population aging and immigration Industries in transition Vulnerability and quality of work Labour market dynamics Diverse landscape of regional labour markets Vision for analyzing tomorrow’s labour market 2 Delivering insight through data for a better Canada Recent trends in an evolving labour market Population aging and immigration 3 Delivering insight through data for a better Canada 3.0 2.8 Shift in fertility rate in 2.6 Atlantic Canada to below the national average 2.4 Replacement level fertility: 2.1 2.2 2.0 1.8 Number of childrenper woman 1.6 1.4 1.2 N.L. P.E.I. N.S. N.B. Canada 1.0 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 Sources: Statistics Canada, Canadian Vital Statistics, Births Database, 1971 to 2017, and Demography Division, Demographic Estimates Program. 4 Delivering insight through data for a better Canada Canada Canada Atlantic Population pyramids, 1988 and 2018 Source: Statistics Canada, Demographic Estimates Program. Median age: 1988 2018 5 Delivering insight through data for a better Canada Lowest proportions of immigrants in the Atlantic provinces… …but growth outpacing Canadian average Proportion of immigrants in population aged 25 to Growth in the number of immigrants between 54, by province, 2018 1999/2008 and 2009/2018 Newfoundland and Labrador 400% New Brunswick 350% Nova Scotia 300% Prince Edward Island 250% Saskatchewan Quebec 200% Manitoba 150% Alberta 100% Canada 50% British Columbia Ontario 0% Canada Newfoundland and Prince Edward Nova Scotia New Brunswick 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% Labrador Island Source: Statistics Canada, Labour Force Survey. Source: Statistics Canada, Demographic Estimates Program. 6 Delivering insight through data for a better Canada Population growth rates in 2018 Population growth rates by province, 2018 British Columbia Alberta Saskatchewan • Slowest population growth in Atlantic provinces overall in 2018 (+0.5%) Manitoba Ontario • Moncton CMA’s population grew almost three Quebec times as fast as New Brunswick in 2018 (+1.4%) New Brunswick Nova Scotia Prince Edward Island Newfoundland and Labrador Canada -1.0% -0.5% 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% Source: Statistics Canada, Demographic Estimates Program. 7 Delivering insight through data for a better Canada By 2061, the population share of the Atlantic provinces could be half of what it was in 1961 Population share by region, 1961 to 2061 45% 40% 35% 30% 1961 25% 1986 20% 2011 2036 15% 2061 10% 5% 0% Atlantic Quebec Ontario Prairies British Columbia Territories Source: Statistics Canada, Demographic estimates program and Population projections, custom scenarios based on recent trends. 8 Delivering insight through data for a better Canada Immigration driving population growth in most Atlantic provinces Population growth composition, Canada and Atlantic provinces, 2017/2018 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 Percentagepoints 0.0 -0.5 -1.0 Canada Newfoundland and Labrador Prince Edward Island Nova Scotia New Brunswick Natural Increase (births minus deaths) Net International Migration Net Internal Migration Population Growth Source: Statistics Canada, Demographic Estimates Program. 9 Delivering insight through data for a better Canada Recent trends in an evolving labour market Industries in transition 10 Delivering insight through data for a better Canada Annual GDP growth, Canada and Atlantic provinces Above national annual 4.0 GDP growth for P.E.I. in 3.0 the last 4 years 2.0 1.0 0.0 2016 2017 2018 Percentage -1.0 -2.0 -3.0 -4.0 Canada Newfoundland and Labrador Prince Edward Island Nova Scotia New Brunswick Source: Statistics Canada, Gross domestic product (GDP) at basic prices, by industry. 11 Delivering insight through data for a better Canada Recent GDP growth in most Atlantic provinces driven by services-producing industries, while decline in Newfoundland and Labrador driven by goods-producing industries Decomposition of annual GDP growth by industry, 2018 3 In 2018, about 1 in 4 people in the Atlantic 2 provinces worked in sales and service occupations 1 Source: Statistics Canada, points Labour Force Survey. 0 Services Goods ercentage P -1 All industries -2 -3 Newfoundland and Prince Edward Island Nova Scotia New Brunswick Labrador Source: Statistics Canada, Gross Domestic Product by Industry – Provincial and Territorial. 12 Delivering insight through data for a better Canada Distribution of employment within the goods-producing sector experienced trade- offs between 1976 and 2018 in most Atlantic provinces Newfoundland and Labrador Prince Edward Island Nova Scotia 50% 50% 50% 40% 40% 40% 30% 30% 30% 20% 20% 20% 10% 10% 10% 0% 0% 0% Construction Manufacturing Agriculture Manufacturing Construction Manufacturing 1976 2018 1976 2018 1976 2018 Source: Statistics Canada, Labour Force Survey. 13 Delivering insight through data for a better Canada Exports from Newfoundland and Labrador and New Brunswick highly concentrated since the early 2000s Domestic export concentration, Canada and Atlantic provinces, 1988 to 2018 0.70 0.60 0.50 Index (HHI)Index 0.40 Hirshman 0.30 - 0.20 Herfindahl 0.10 0.00 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 Canada New Brunswick Newfoundland and Labrador Nova Scotia Prince Edward Island Source: Statistics Canada, Canadian domestic export concentration. 14 Delivering insight through data for a better Canada Recent trends in an evolving labour market Vulnerability and quality of work 15 Delivering insight through data for a better Canada Wage growth in Canada is subject to regional and cyclical variations In the 2000s wage growth was … and workers with higher levels of education were the driven by the oil-sector … most affected by downturn in the industry Indexed real hourly wage by region, employees aged Indexed real hourly wage by province and education level, core- 25 to 54, 2000-2018 age employees, 2000-2018 140 135 N.L., High school or less 125 130 N.L., Postsecondary, above 115 Bachelor's degree 120 105 N.L., Postsecondary, below Bachelor's degree 95 110 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 P.E.I.-N.B.-N.S., High school or less 100 Oil producing provinces P.E.I.-N.B.-N.S., Postsecondary, above Bachelor's degree Atlantic without Newfoundland and Labrador 90 P.E.I.-N.B.-N.S., Postsecondary, Ontario below Bachelor's degree 80 Other provinces 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 Source: Statistics Canada, Labour Force Survey. 16 Delivering insight through data for a better Canada Temporary employment higher in the Atlantic provinces… …but the share has declined over the years Source: Statistics Canada, Labour Force Survey. 17 Delivering insight through data for a better Canada Involuntary part-time converging towards the national average, except in Newfoundland and Labrador Proportion of total part-time workers who are involuntary part-time workers, 1997 to 2018 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Canada Newfoundland and Labrador Prince Edward Island Nova Scotia New Brunswick Source: Statistics Canada, Labour Force Survey. 18 Delivering insight through data for a better Canada Forms of employment associated with the digital economy may increase precarity • STC is collaborating on the development of In 2016, forms of employment which may be associated with gig international standards and approaches to the employment were less common in Canada than in other OECD measurement of new forms of employment and other aspects of an increasingly digital economy countries Contribution of unincorporated self-employment (without employees) • Work obtained via digital platforms — and performed to total employment, OECD countries, 2016 either in-person or virtually — is a small but 40% potentially fast-growing component of total 35% employment in Canada 30% 25% 20% • This form of work may increase precarity by exposing 15% self-employed workers to risks and dependencies 8.6% without corresponding social protections 10% 5% 0% Source: OECD, Labour Force Statistics: Summary tables. 19 Delivering insight through data for a better Canada Recent trends in an evolving labour market Labour market dynamics 20 Delivering insight through data for a better Canada Labour force by sex and age group, Atlantic provinces, 1976 to 2018 Core-aged and older women 1,400 account for most of the labour force increase in the Atlantic 1,200 provinces between 1976 and 2018 1,000 800 Thousands 600 400 200 0 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 Men 15-24 years Men 25-54 years Men 55 years and over Women 15-24 years Women 25-54 years Women 55 years and over Source: Statistics Canada, Labour Force Survey. 21 Delivering insight through data for a better Canada Unemployment rates historically above the national average Unemployment rates for people aged 25 to 54, 1976 to 2018 20 18 16 14 12 10 ercentage P 8 6 4 2 0 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 Canada Newfoundland and Labrador Prince Edward Island Nova Scotia New Brunswick Moncton Source: Statistics Canada, Labour Force Survey.
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