A Data Story on Atlantic Canada at Work: Evolving Opportunities A discussion with Statistics Canada Anil Arora, Chief Statistician of Canada Moncton, June 17, 2019
Catalogue no. 11-631-X
Delivering insight through data for a better Canada ISBN 978-0-660-31434-1 Key challenges in today’s labour market
Immigration and retention Global market Population uncertainty aging and work precarity
Labour Increasingly Automation shortages and digital and skills economy specialization mismatch of work
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Delivering insight through data for a better Canada Atlantic Canada at Work: Evolving Opportunities
Recent trends in an evolving labour market
Population aging and immigration
Industries in transition
Vulnerability and quality of work
Labour market dynamics
Diverse landscape of regional labour markets
Vision for analyzing tomorrow’s labour market
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Delivering insight through data for a better Canada Recent trends in an evolving labour market
Population aging and immigration
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Delivering insight through data for a better Canada 3.0
2.8 Shift in fertility rate in
2.6 Atlantic Canada to below the national average 2.4 Replacement level fertility: 2.1 2.2
2.0
1.8 Numberof childrenperwoman
1.6
1.4
1.2 N.L. P.E.I. N.S. N.B. Canada 1.0 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016
Sources: Statistics Canada, Canadian Vital Statistics, Births Database, 1971 to 2017, and Demography Division, Demographic Estimates Program. 4
Delivering insight through data for a better Canada Canada Canada Atlantic
Population pyramids, 1988 and 2018
Source: Statistics Canada, Demographic Estimates Program.
Median age: 1988 2018
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Delivering insight through data for a better Canada Lowest proportions of immigrants in the Atlantic provinces… …but growth outpacing Canadian average
Proportion of immigrants in population aged 25 to Growth in the number of immigrants between 54, by province, 2018 1999/2008 and 2009/2018 Newfoundland and Labrador 400%
New Brunswick 350% Nova Scotia 300% Prince Edward Island 250% Saskatchewan
Quebec 200%
Manitoba 150% Alberta 100% Canada 50% British Columbia
Ontario 0% Canada Newfoundland and Prince Edward Nova Scotia New Brunswick 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% Labrador Island
Source: Statistics Canada, Labour Force Survey. Source: Statistics Canada, Demographic Estimates Program. 6
Delivering insight through data for a better Canada Population growth rates in 2018 Population growth rates by province, 2018 British Columbia
Alberta
Saskatchewan • Slowest population growth in Atlantic provinces overall in 2018 (+0.5%) Manitoba Ontario
• Moncton CMA’s population grew almost three Quebec times as fast as New Brunswick in 2018 (+1.4%) New Brunswick
Nova Scotia
Prince Edward Island
Newfoundland and Labrador
Canada
-1.0% -0.5% 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0%
Source: Statistics Canada, Demographic Estimates Program. 7
Delivering insight through data for a better Canada By 2061, the population share of the Atlantic provinces could be half of what it was in 1961
Population share by region, 1961 to 2061 45%
40%
35%
30% 1961 25% 1986
20% 2011 2036 15% 2061 10%
5%
0% Atlantic Quebec Ontario Prairies British Columbia Territories
Source: Statistics Canada, Demographic estimates program and Population projections, custom scenarios based on recent trends. 8
Delivering insight through data for a better Canada Immigration driving population growth in most Atlantic provinces
Population growth composition, Canada and Atlantic provinces, 2017/2018
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5 Percentage points Percentage 0.0
-0.5
-1.0 Canada Newfoundland and Labrador Prince Edward Island Nova Scotia New Brunswick
Natural Increase (births minus deaths) Net International Migration Net Internal Migration Population Growth
Source: Statistics Canada, Demographic Estimates Program. 9
Delivering insight through data for a better Canada Recent trends in an evolving labour market
Industries in transition
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Delivering insight through data for a better Canada Annual GDP growth, Canada and Atlantic provinces Above national annual 4.0
GDP growth for P.E.I. in 3.0 the last 4 years 2.0
1.0
0.0
2016 2017 2018 Percentage -1.0
-2.0
-3.0
-4.0 Canada Newfoundland and Labrador Prince Edward Island Nova Scotia New Brunswick
Source: Statistics Canada, Gross domestic product (GDP) at basic prices, by industry. 11
Delivering insight through data for a better Canada Recent GDP growth in most Atlantic provinces driven by services-producing industries, while decline in Newfoundland and Labrador driven by goods-producing industries
Decomposition of annual GDP growth by industry, 2018 3 In 2018, about 1 in 4 people in the Atlantic
2 provinces worked in sales and service occupations 1 Source: Statistics Canada, points Labour Force Survey. 0 Services
Goods
ercentage P -1 All industries
-2
-3 Newfoundland and Prince Edward Island Nova Scotia New Brunswick Labrador
Source: Statistics Canada, Gross Domestic Product by Industry – Provincial and Territorial. 12
Delivering insight through data for a better Canada Distribution of employment within the goods-producing sector experienced trade- offs between 1976 and 2018 in most Atlantic provinces
Newfoundland and Labrador Prince Edward Island Nova Scotia 50% 50% 50%
40% 40% 40%
30% 30% 30%
20% 20% 20%
10% 10% 10%
0% 0% 0% Construction Manufacturing Agriculture Manufacturing Construction Manufacturing
1976 2018 1976 2018 1976 2018
Source: Statistics Canada, Labour Force Survey. 13
Delivering insight through data for a better Canada Exports from Newfoundland and Labrador and New Brunswick highly concentrated since the early 2000s
Domestic export concentration, Canada and Atlantic provinces, 1988 to 2018 0.70
0.60
0.50
Index (HHI)Index 0.40
Hirshman 0.30 -
0.20 Herfindahl
0.10
0.00 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 Canada New Brunswick Newfoundland and Labrador Nova Scotia Prince Edward Island
Source: Statistics Canada, Canadian domestic export concentration. 14
Delivering insight through data for a better Canada Recent trends in an evolving labour market
Vulnerability and quality of work
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Delivering insight through data for a better Canada Wage growth in Canada is subject to regional and cyclical variations
In the 2000s wage growth was … and workers with higher levels of education were the driven by the oil-sector … most affected by downturn in the industry
Indexed real hourly wage by region, employees aged Indexed real hourly wage by province and education level, core- 25 to 54, 2000-2018 age employees, 2000-2018 140 135 N.L., High school or less
125 130 N.L., Postsecondary, above 115 Bachelor's degree 120 105 N.L., Postsecondary, below Bachelor's degree 95 110 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 P.E.I.-N.B.-N.S., High school or less 100 Oil producing provinces P.E.I.-N.B.-N.S., Postsecondary, above Bachelor's degree Atlantic without Newfoundland and Labrador 90 P.E.I.-N.B.-N.S., Postsecondary, Ontario below Bachelor's degree 80 Other provinces 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016
Source: Statistics Canada, Labour Force Survey. 16
Delivering insight through data for a better Canada Temporary employment higher in the Atlantic provinces…
…but the share has declined over the years
Source: Statistics Canada, Labour Force Survey. 17
Delivering insight through data for a better Canada Involuntary part-time converging towards the national average, except in Newfoundland and Labrador
Proportion of total part-time workers who are involuntary part-time workers, 1997 to 2018
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0% 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Canada Newfoundland and Labrador Prince Edward Island Nova Scotia New Brunswick
Source: Statistics Canada, Labour Force Survey. 18
Delivering insight through data for a better Canada Forms of employment associated with the digital economy may increase precarity
• STC is collaborating on the development of In 2016, forms of employment which may be associated with gig international standards and approaches to the employment were less common in Canada than in other OECD measurement of new forms of employment and other aspects of an increasingly digital economy countries
Contribution of unincorporated self-employment (without employees) • Work obtained via digital platforms — and performed to total employment, OECD countries, 2016 either in-person or virtually — is a small but 40% potentially fast-growing component of total 35%
employment in Canada 30%
25%
20%
• This form of work may increase precarity by exposing 15% self-employed workers to risks and dependencies 8.6% without corresponding social protections 10% 5%
0%
Source: OECD, Labour Force Statistics: Summary tables. 19
Delivering insight through data for a better Canada Recent trends in an evolving labour market
Labour market dynamics
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Delivering insight through data for a better Canada Labour force by sex and age group, Atlantic provinces, 1976 to 2018 Core-aged and older women 1,400 account for most of the labour
force increase in the Atlantic 1,200 provinces between 1976 and 2018 1,000
800
Thousands 600
400
200
0 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
Men 15-24 years Men 25-54 years Men 55 years and over Women 15-24 years Women 25-54 years Women 55 years and over
Source: Statistics Canada, Labour Force Survey. 21
Delivering insight through data for a better Canada Unemployment rates historically above the national average
Unemployment rates for people aged 25 to 54, 1976 to 2018 20
18
16
14
12
10 ercentage
P 8
6
4
2
0 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
Canada Newfoundland and Labrador Prince Edward Island Nova Scotia New Brunswick Moncton
Source: Statistics Canada, Labour Force Survey. 22
Delivering insight through data for a better Canada Employment rates converging towards the national average in most Atlantic provinces
Employment rates for people aged 25 to 54 , 1976 to 2018 90
85
80
75
70
65 ercentage
P 60
55
50
45
40 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
Canada Newfoundland and Labrador Prince Edward Island Nova Scotia New Brunswick Moncton
Source: Statistics Canada, Labour Force Survey. 23
Delivering insight through data for a better Canada Lower projected labour force participation in Atlantic Canada outside CMAs
70
60
50
40
30 Participation rate (%) rateParticipation
20
10
0 Atlantic Canada CMAs Atlantic Canada outside CMAs Canada
2017 2036
Note: Reference scenario. 24 Source: Statistics Canada, Labour Force Survey and Demosim 2017 (2036).
Delivering insight through data for a better Canada Unemployed-to-job vacancy ratio higher in Atlantic Canada
Unemployed-to-job vacancy ratio by province, 2018
Newfoundland and Labrador
Saskatchewan
Prince Edward Island
Nova Scotia
New Brunswick
Alberta
Manitoba
Quebec
Canada
Ontario
British Columbia
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Sources: Statistics Canada, Labour Force Survey and Job Vacancy and Wage Survey. 25
Delivering insight through data for a better Canada Unemployed-to-job vacancy ratio in the Atlantic provinces varies considerably by occupation
Natural resources, agriculture and related production Business, finance and administration occupations, 2018 occupations, 2018
35 35
30 30 ratio ratio 25 25
20 20
job vacancies job vacancies job
- -
to to - - 15 15
10 10
Unemployed Unemployed 5 5
0 0 Canada Newfoundland Prince Edward Nova Scotia New Brunswick Canada Newfoundland Prince Edward Nova Scotia New Brunswick and Labrador Island and Labrador Island
Sources: Statistics Canada, Labour Force Survey and Job Vacancy and Wage Survey. 26
Delivering insight through data for a better Canada Recent trends in an evolving labour market
Diverse landscape of regional labour markets
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Delivering insight through data for a better Canada Regional labour markets in the Atlantic provinces
• Labour market indicators tend to vary greatly between regional labour markets in the Atlantic provinces
• Similar to what is observed across Canada, unemployment rates tend to be higher in regions outside large population centers. Unemployment rates ranging from 6.0% in Halifax, N.S. to 18.6% in South Coast- Burin Peninsula, N.L.
Source: Statistics Canada, Labour Force Survey. 28
Delivering insight through data for a better Canada Regional labour markets in the Atlantic provinces
• Even more diversity within regions…
Unemployment rates ranging from 4.1% in Madawaska, N.B. to 24.2% in Division No. 4, N.L.
Source: Statistics Canada, Labour Force Survey. 29
Delivering insight through data for a better Canada In economic regions with high unemployment, jobs are more likely to be temporary
Unemployment rate and percentage of employees in temporary positions,
20 Atlantic Canada by economic region, 2018 South Coast-Burin Peninsula and 18 Notre Dame-Central Bonavista Bay, N.L. West Coast-Northern Peninsula- 16 Labrador, N.L. Cape Breton, N.S. 14
12 Campbellton-Miramichi, N.B.
Avalon Peninsula, N.L. rate (%) rate 10 North Shore, N.S. Prince Edward Island 8 Annapolis Valley, N.S. Fredericton-Oromocto, N.B. Saint John-St. Stephen, N.B. Southern, N.S. 6 Halifax, N.S.
Moncton-Richibucto, N.B. Unemployment Unemployment 4 Edmundston-Woodstock, N.B.
2
0 0 5 10 15 20 25 30
% of employees who are temporary Source: Statistics Canada, Labour Force Survey. 30
Delivering insight through data for a better Canada Population aging and its impact on participation rates
• Not all regional labour markets facing the same challenge when it comes to population aging
• Participation rates generally lower than the national average (65.4%) in the Atlantic economic regions
• However, some regions show participation rates close to or above the national average: • Halifax: 68.1% • Prince Edward Island: 66.7% • Moncton-Richibucto: 63.5%
Source: Statistics Canada, Labour Force Survey. 31
Delivering insight through data for a better Canada Immigration lower in regions with older workforce
Source: Statistics Canada, Labour Force Survey.
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Delivering insight through data for a better Canada Unemployed-to-job vacancy ratio by economic region
Unemployed-to-job vacancy ratio by economic region, 2018 South Coast-Burin Peninsula and Notre Dame-Central Bonavista Bay, NL 18.7 West Coast-Northern Peninsula-Labrador, NL 9.3 Cape Breton, NS 8.0 Avalon Peninsula, NL 6.8 Campbellton-Miramichi, NB 6.8 Annapolis Valley, NS 4.3 North Shore, NS 4.1 Fredericton-Oromocto, NB 3.7 Prince Edward Island 3.6 Southern, NS 3.0 Saint John-St. Stephen, NB 2.9 Edmundston-Woodstock, NB 2.7 Halifax, NS 2.4 Moncton-Richibucto, NB 2.3 Canada 2.2
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 Source: Statistics Canada, Labour Force Survey and Job Vacancy and Wage Survey. 33
Delivering insight through data for a better Canada Opportunities in the Atlantic region
In 2017, 116 instances for which the average wage paid for an occupation was higher in an Atlantic economic region than the national average wage paid for that same occupation.
Source: Statistics Canada, Job Vacancy and Wage Survey. 34
Delivering insight through data for a better Canada Vision for analyzing tomorrow’s labour market
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Delivering insight through data for a better Canada Modernizing every step of the cycle to improve our products….Creating the foundation for a digital government, society and economy
Generation and Analysis and Consumption Integration Dissemination visualization Collection From survey-first From fragmented to From limited to From static data tables Supporting quality segregated collection to modern methodologies to significantly expanded and analysis to provision decisions by citizens, their better integrate data from access and responsive, maximizing the use of of tools to evaluate and governments and a variety of sources high value products and support responsible data businesses based on administrative/big data services use evidence Modernized StatCan
Statistical Leading Edge User Centric Flexible & Capacity Sharing & Methods & Service Modern Building & Collaboration Data Delivery Workplace Leadership Integration 36
Delivering insight through data for a better Canada Vision for analyzing tomorrow’s labour market Statistics Canada is committed to modernizing and building on existing labour market measures by:
Adapting measures of Addressing data gaps employment and quality of related to automation, work to fully capture the technological change and effects of globalisation and skills the digital economy
Facilitating decision-making Testing new questions for with increased local and the 2021 Census in order to granular labour market update labour and journey information to work content
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Delivering insight through data for a better Canada Continuing to build and foster relationships with our partners and stakeholders
Ongoing consultation on … With… • Governmental and community partners, such as Employment and • Concepts, measures and Social Development Canada (ESDC) indicators and the Atlantic Canada Opportunities Agency • Data sources • Independent agencies, such as the Labour Market Information Council • New questions and updated content for the 2021 Census • Data users across the country, such as students, academic experts and • Alternative collection survey participants methods
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Delivering insight through data for a better Canada Going forward: Measuring new forms of employment
• One-time basis questions • Beginning in November • Statistics Canada – ESDC added in September 2018 2019, 5 questions will be Working Group on Quality added to the LFS on an on- of Employment • Reasons for working for population aged 60 and over going basis • Young people not in • Indicators of job precarity employment, education or • Multiple job holders • Skills and skills mismatches training (NEET) • Earnings of self-employed • Electronically mediated • Trends in temporary • Access to employment benefits employment employment • Main activity of those not in • Self-employed Canadians: the labour force Who and why? • Reasons for working beyond age 60
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Delivering insight through data for a better Canada Small Area Estimation: Increasing precision of sub-provincial labour market indicators
Combining multiple data sources
Increasing both the quality and availability of CA and CMA estimates
Successful pilot project conducted in 2017 Transition to standard product: Available to the public on the Statistics Canada website by the end of 2019
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Delivering insight through data for a better Canada Dissemination of new data, analytical and reference products
Innovative tools for a comprehensive picture of regional labour markets
Labour Force Survey in Brief: Interactive App
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Delivering insight through data for a better Canada Staying connected with our users
AMA
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