184 Med.2012 Panorama a newpoliticalmajority andformthegovernment. 3 2 1 (STL) for Tribunal Special the to gard re- with crisis political heightened of background a ing domestic tensions and outside pressure. Against combin- another after event one experiencing been have Lebanese the 2011, of beginning the Since Common SpaceInitiative, Research Director Karam Domestic Tension andForeign Pressure The Fragile BalanceinLebanon: Mediterranean Politics |MiddleEast 5 4 01 tu cuig h clas o te “national Hariri. Saad by the government”presided unity of collapse the causing thus 2011, Mohammad Safadi, Ahmad Karami), who had been members of the 14 March Mohammad Safadi, Ahmad Karami), Mikati, (Najib Tripoli from politicians Sunni and Party Socialist Progressive The Amal the (Maronite). Movement (Shiite), Patriotic Free the by and (Shiite) dominated Movement primarily and multi-denominational Coalition, March 8 the over elections the won (Druze), Party ist the Lebanese Forces (Maronite) and the Progressive Social- tion, multi-denominational and primarily dominated by the Future Movement (Sunni), Since itsestablishmentinMay2007bytheUnitedNationsSecurityCouncil, thistribunalhasbeenasourceofmajorpoliticalriftinLebanon. over athirdofitsmembersdesignated byitsconstitutingdecreearenolongerinoffice,thegovernmentisconsidered ashavingresigned. discussing itsince2008withintheframeworkofaNationalDialogueCommittee, undertheaegisofPresidentRepublic. jority emerging from the 2009 legislative elections. legislative 2009 the from emerging jority ma- political the involving change a indicating thus cabinet, new a forming with entrusted was Mikati Najib Minister, Prime new a of appointment the for Republic the of President the by led consultations January 2011, following the obligatory parliamentary oe o tit mnses l blnig o h new “political majority,” the he thus broke to with the principle belonging of all ministers thirty of posed Com- cabinet. his forming in succeeded Sunni, ent over the course of the past decade as an independ- arena political the entered had who Tripoli, of city gotiations, that this businessman from the Lebanese ne- of days 145 after 2011, June 13 until not was It Dia- logue, National for Committee the and Ministers of leading to the suspension of meetings of the Council Atthetimeofwriting: April2012. The The The The aim of this tribunal is to try the assassins of former Prime Minister Rafiq Hariri and the crimes of the same nature occurring as a consequence. last legislative elections, which took place in 2009, witnessed arduous competition between the two political coalitions. The resigning ministers all belonged to the 8 March matter of developing a national defence strategy is one of the main subjects of discord among the top political leaders, who have been have who leaders, political top the among discord of subjects main the of one is strategy defence national a developing of matter 2 lvn iitr rsge o 1 January 12 on resigned ministers eleven Coalition: they caused the government to collapse because, according to the constitution, if 3 On 24 On 4 1

major trends of the Lebanese political system in the in system political Lebanese the of trends major the of resilience the emphasises It challenges. nal nese political stage through the prism of these exter- This article will analyse recent events recent analyse will article This lenges ofaneworder. chal- places before socially, and politically that both Lebanon, configuration regional un- precedented an creating situation, the handling in ceeded suc- government the that today clear is it But tories. terri- confessional Lebanon’s onto projection direct its and crisis Syrian the of effect the under collapse to about was regime, Syrian the of ally an and tion Coali- March 8 the of that considered government, In this context, everything led to believe that this new Lebanese arena asofmid-March2011. the on directly felt were repercussions first whose in out broke revolt a and testers gotiation, Arab regimes fell under pressure from pro- few months. During this long period of domestic ne- past the over attacks several of target a Lebanon, southern in (UNIFIL) Force Interim Nations United cerning the STL and Resolution 1701, as well as the con- those particular in engagements, international Lebanon’s on renege not should government new the guard: their on policymakers and diplomats ern This governmental composition has put many West- government. future the in participate to refused tion Coali- March 14 the after government unity national Coalition, went over to the 8 March Coalition in 2011 to constitute 5 on the Leba- the on 14 March Coali- role of arbiter and gained the last word on all impor- the assumed Syria doing, so In Parliament. or ters was preventedfromforming intheCouncilofMinis- minority blocking or third blocking a while regime, alternately Syrian were the by veto to right the prohibited or granted Council), the of and Parliament of Republic, the (of Presidents Lebanese three the Syrian of another or one 2005, and 1990 between control Under decision-making. from excluded or risk that a majority segment be de facto marginalised principle the eliminate to democracies, consensual minority in serves, blocking or veto This adopted. be to order in Ministers of Council the the of members of thirds two of approval the requiring issues Ta’ifnational basic fourteen designates Constitution tutional principle of “living together,” Article 65 of the consti- the of name the in Indeed, decision-making. and order political legitimate the over monopoly the have not do institutions state when power of nature polycentric the emphasise they hand, other the On Lebanon, type. unity national in or majority the government of be it of whether form any for sential es- is consensus of spirit the that demonstrate they plication of the 1990 Ta’if reforms. On the one hand, ap- the before well prevailed that power of factors structuring certain reconfirm then since taken sions deci- main the and power executive of exercise the minority, opposition an and majority governing a i.e. power, of balance the as insofar change a showed 2011 in government the of composition the Though Governance Majority GovernmentandConsensual highly diverseSouthMediterraneansocieties. in pluralism managing for model a as insofar system this of limits the reveals nevertheless it sponsors, international and regional their and actors Lebanese of ensemble the for valid, still are government sual consen- of mode its and Lebanese system political the sectarian of function or role internal the that Though an analysis of these events ultimately shows sectarian the “overthrow to mobilisations Lebanese and stage domestic the on revolt the Syrian of repercussions the polarisation, political ed aggravat- factors: concomitant following the of face 6 http://jilp.law.ucdavis.edu/issues/Volume%2017.2/Jurdi%20-%20Final%20PDF.pdf Gaps asObstacles toAchievingJusticeandPublicLegitimacy,” JournalofInternational LawandPolicy, UniversityofCalifornian, Davis. For further information on these matters, cf. Nidal Jurdi, 2011, “Falling Between the Cracks: The Special Tribunal for Lebanon’s Jurisdictional Lebanon’s Tribunalfor Special The Cracks: the Between “Falling 2011, Jurdi, Nidal cf. matters, these on information further regime.” unity type it beofthemajorityornational government inLebanon, whether essential forany formof The spiritofconsensusis n te eea o is mandate; its of renewal the and funding indictment, the witnesses, false i.e. matters, March March 14 – coalitions two the dividing issues contentious main the Among etc.). Nations, United the France, States, United (the away farther or etc.) Qatar, , Arabia, Saudi (Syria, close graphically geo- be they whether actors, Lebanese by adopted be to choices strategic the as insofar sion-makers” deci- international “major the of will the and ments commit- international Lebanon’s respect also They ent segments and forces active in Lebanese society. differ- the of interests the account into take they for the Mikati administration to the present attest to this, Parliament. All the decisions and measures taken by in groups all of interests the account into takes er, pow- of exercise the in which, governance, of mode consensual the to returning thus veto, to right the of power the reinstated however, has, ministration third” and granting of seats to the opposition, his ad- “blocking a of principle the respect not does ment” govern- “majority Mikati’s Minister Prime Although 2009; the issue of the senior officials considered by March 14 the and ment Siniora (one of the main leaders of the Future Move- Fouad by presided administrations the by manner” public expenditure effected “in an anti-constitutional “opposition” intheCouncilofMinisters. the with “majority” the linking government,” unity al during this period respected the principle of “nation- constituted governments all Thus, minority. mentary the Council of Ministers as a guarantee to the Parlia- in minority blocking a of principle the around volved re- parties the between tension the and competition the 2011, January until and 2005 April in Lebanon from army Syrian the of withdrawal the After ests. inter- own its serving of aim the with decisions tant wr te olwn: h SL n related and STL the following: the were – olto) rm 05 to 2005 from Coalition) 6 h ise f the of issue the and 8 and

185 Med.2012 Panorama 186 Med.2012 Panorama • • • • • to theinterestsofeithertwopoliticalpoles: settled by this administration in a manner detrimental the of been has issues these of None weapons. Hezbollah fate the and strategy defence national the Future the for Movement and the 14 working March Coalition; the matter of as Coalition March 8 the 7 to thegovernment the sumpaidtoSTLfromHigh ReliefCommissionfunds. Severaldayslater,inmid-December 2011,itturnedoutthatwas theAssociationofBanksinLebanon, aprivateorganisation,that transferred

ewe 20 ad 09 wr as handled also were 2009, and 2005 between expenditure ofpublic that and officials the senior of that issues, contentious other two The scene. political domestic the on jolts no with cedures, pro- Nations United internal to according years, three for extended March finally was in latter the mandate 2012, STL the of expiration the Despite the exacerbation of political debate with the STLconfirmed. to commitment Lebanon’s of State the and ed protect- interests its considers Coalition March 8 The March Coalition did not electorate. have to yield, and the 14 its and community (Sunni) own its to commitments its as well as mitments com- international its honoured Lebanon Thus iso, n raim tahd o i office. his to attached organism an mission, Com- Relief High the of funds the from STL the to contribution its of amount the paid had non November of end Leba- that declared Mikati Minister Prime 2011, the At parties. all for face saving reached, was compromise governmental 2011 (to the sum of 32 an million extra- dollars), the government authorise to pay its part in funding the STL to for Ministers of Council the low Faced with the 8 March Coalition’s refusal to al- rsn ewe te hie ad h Sni in Lebanon. Sunnis the and Shiites the between arisen and no further conflict relating to this matter has found, be cannot they point this at since rested, ar- been not have suspects The Hezbollah. of members four charging 2011, July late in public made was indictment the STL, the Concerning and indefinitelypostponed. 2010 committee’s November in suspended simply was work this –, Coalition March 8 the for witnesses” “false the of issue the vs. Coalition – the national defence strategy for the 14 March Committee Dialogue National the of agenda the on placed be to issue the on poles antagonistic two the between agreement of absence the In 7

Abstaining allows Lebanon not to block the vote, the block to not Lebanon allows Abstaining in decision-making. in authorities participates Lebanon international which or regional certain “dissociation” consists in abstaining from voting in and 2005, to “positive 1990 from control Syrian under destiny”common their and processes Syrian and Lebanese respective the of “concomitance riod, pe- pre-war the during “neutrality” policy: foreign Lebanese qualify to times earlier at use in tions no- and concepts the overrides concept This sis. cri- Syrian the to regard with forums international applied by Lebanese policymakers in regional and “dissociation,” called concept new a of opment devel- the through illustrated is element first The elements original worthy ofdiscussion. two with framework, analytical crisis can also be deciphered according to the same Syrian the to reaction government’s Lebanese The Dissociation orislocation? Lebanon intheFaceofSyrian Revolt: ercise ofmajoritygovernment. from prison Forces, –, is being consolidated today Lebanese through the ex- of of leader release Geagea, the Samir and Aoun Michel General of exile ter the withdrawal of the Syrian army, the return from has been progressively established since 2005 – af- veto major decisions. This form of governance, which to power the have still leaders community position, op- the or party ruling the in are they Whether tem. sys- consociational Lebanese the of main characteristics the to return a represents it aspects, porary lishment of new public policies. Beyond certain tem- lowest common denominator and far from the estab- a for search the and through compromise extra-institutional crises successive of management the in grounded all above thus is government of form This ministrations ledbytheFutureMovement. ad- preceding of expenditure ti-constitutional” “an- the to solution constitutional a find to order in discussed being are law of bills and office, in still are officials the anyone: tried nor dismissed government led by the 8 March Coalition neither The compromise. consensual of lines the along etaiy a o 20. h cnet of concept The 2005. of as neutrality” by the Syrian crisis did occur twice in the Lebanese the in twice occur did crisis Syrian the by fuelled clashes bloody violent, manner, non-violent a in place taken have demonstrations Though gime. and demonstrations counter-demonstrations, of for or against the Syrian re- rhythm the has to living Lebanon been 2011, March Since scene. mestic the do- on generalisation conflict’s the preventing of aim the with slips, security episodic certain spite de- it, respect to and Syria, in opposition the to or regime the to support their in crossed be to not old, two political coalitions to establish an implicit thresh- the of capacity the in appears element second The its violentdimension not importingtheSyriancrisisin limits andontheshortterm, in succeeded, thoughwithin certain governance, Lebanon has through itsconsensualformof delimitation oftheconflict–and i.e. dissociationwithand In lightofthesetwo elements– posed bytheLeague). garding the plan for transfer of power in re- Syria pro- instance, for 2012, January (in League Arab the at and Syria) in repression and violence the condemning resolution draft a 2011, on vote the during October 4 and Syria, on declaration tial presiden- the regarding 2011, August (in Council four times with regard to Syria, at the UN Security and Iran), on sanctions new impose to 1929 tion stance, Lebanon in- abstained from voting for on Resolu- 2010, June (in 2011 and 2010 between member, non-permanent which a elected to was Lebanon Council, Security Nations United the at Iran to regard with twice times: six Lebanon by adopted was “Dissociation” it. against votes any taking a decision is conditioned by the absence of regulations,certain to according when, especially 9 8 of sectarianandpoliticalconflicts.Today itisoneoftheareaswhere thereisconfrontationbetweentheFutureMovementandHezbollah. =0&HId=&HIssueNum=2835&Category=1&DescId=10524&DescFlag=1. of Sidon, has become the Lebanese symbol of the triumphant Islamism of the Arab revolutions?” cf. This sheikh has made rivers of ink flow in Lebanon, and the press wonder “how, at 44 years of age, this imam of a small mosque, from the suburbs Nasrallah. Hassan general, secretary its and Hezbollah attacks also he regime; Syrian the to limited not is criticism His 2012. March 4 on Beirut Such These as the virulent Sheikh Ahmad el-Assir, who organises meetings and protests in different regions of Lebanon, one of which in downtown in which of one Lebanon, of regions different in protests and meetings organises who el-Assir, Ahmad Sheikh virulent the as two neighbourhoods, among the poorest in Lebanon, have been experiencing conflicts since at least 1983, consisting of a combination a of consisting 1983, least at since conflicts experiencing been have Lebanon, in poorest the among neighbourhoods, two nese government policy. government nese Leba- and regime el-Assad Bashar the against ies dignitar- religious Sunni Lebanese of number a by made criticism the eclipse to manage quite not do declarations These Syria. in underway conflict the communities, abstaining from openly taking sides in differentthe of coexistence peaceful the and logue dia- to appealed and violence rejected have which 2012), March 15 and 2011 May 12 in (on Lebanon place taking summits Islamic-Christian ferent dif- the at discourse the characterised has proach ap- same The State. of Heads Arab and Western before and abroad visits numerous his on 2010, October in held Christians Eastern of situation the Vaticantothe by dedicated Synod the of spirit the in is which position, this repeating ceased not has Rai Patriarch minorities. Christian Eastern of fate the on impact its and Arab Syria, in all above Countries, in uprisings popular in emerging tendency confessional a 15 about concerned on is 2011, elected March Rai, Bechara Church, Maronite the of Patriarch new The authorities. religious lim Mus- and Christian highest the of support the has problem Syrian the regarding policy Governmental of thenationalpoliticalgeography. keeping the country isolated from events in Syria has of government Lebanese the by endorsed idea The domestic and, aboveall,theinternationalarenas. the on position his strengthen to uses tration, offering him a sort of “legitimisation” that he adminis- Mikati Najib the by followed policy the to Christian or Muslim, is one of considerable support the position of the religious establishment, whether the in especially Tripoliof said,cities That Sunni Sidon. coastal and mosques, of esplanades the the against Syrian regime are led by sheikhs and take place on Lebanon in place taking protests of dimensional geography,”dimensional “multi- of terrain this beyond propagating from flict con- the prevent to and confrontations managed these contain army Lebanese The Alawi. primarily district, Mohsen Jabal the and composition, Sunni primarily of district, al-Tebbaneh Bab the between 2012, February in and 2011 July in Tripoli: of city www.magazine.com.lb/index.asp?ArrowIndex 8 9 which is but a microcosm a but is which In fact, the near majority near the fact, In

187 Med.2012 Panorama 188 Med.2012 Panorama and delimitation of the conflict – and through its through – and conflict the of delimitation and In light of these two elements – i.e. dissociation with posts intheregion. guard border of reinforcement the and Lebanon of border northern this of demarcation the refused had that regime Syrian the been had it 2004, in ginning 10 decision-makers.” external the “major of some among ground gained progressively 13 12 11 ties totheAmalMovement andHezbollahformerLebanese AmbassadortoIran. 14 March army, amongthemLebanesesoldiersandSyrian Lebanesecivilians,includingjournalists. et_regionale_avec_William_Hague.html. which has helped consolidate stability in Lebanon,” cf. cf. Syria,” Mikati_a_l’egard_des_evenements_en_Syrie.html. in events from apart country the keep batants between the two countries. two the between batants com- of circulation the and traffic arms the stop to border northern entire the along army its deploying is government Lebanese the request, government’s Syrian the at time, same the At airports. Lebanese create humanitarian corridors and to allow the use of to refuses it lines, same the Along Movement. ture Fu- the to ties with organisations religious Sunni or Lebanon in working organisations UN the of hands the in matter the leaving care, their under officially them take to not decided has government the gees, refu- of matter the to regard with Moreover, survival. Lebanese its for the sector banking the on as relies mainly economy concern, of source a are tions sanc- financial and Lebanon in fragile very is ation situ- the that noted be should It Syria. of that to tied closely economy, Lebanese the of survival very the of of matters for sanctions, application commercial and economic the in margin considerable a tains retary, David S. Cohen. Nonetheless, Lebanon main- 2012, during the visit of the US Treasury Under Sec- March late in authorities financial and political nese international Leba- the to States United the by request firm a ing the applying follow- Syria against established sanctions financial government’s nese aiain ordr, ae ot hi vrlne to- virulence day. their lost have corridors, manitarian Syrian refugee camps on Lebanese territory and hu- ferent sanctions imposed on the latter, and organise to it for condemn the Bashar emissaries el-Assad regime, apply the dif- Arab and Western and dors ambassa- certain by crisis the of start the at ment govern- Lebanese the on exerted pressure peated The Despite British After 11 three main figures behind the dissociation policy are Ambassador Nawaf Salam, Representative of Lebanon to the UN and with ties to the to ties with and UN the to Lebanon of Representative Salam, Nawaf Ambassador are policy dissociation the behind figures main three This has resulted, for instance, in the Leba- the in instance, for resulted, has This Prime Minister Mikati’s trip to Paris in February 2012, French diplomacy affirmed its support for Lebanese government policy “aiming to “aiming policy government Lebanese for support its affirmed diplomacy French 2012, February in Paris to trip Mikati’s Minister Prime Minister of Foreign Affairs William Hague expressed the same thought when he welcomed “the wise policy of the Lebanese government, Coalition; Prime Minister Mikati, who seeks to play the role of centrist arbiter; and current Foreign Affairs Minister Adnan Mansour, with the presence of the Lebanese army, there have been many casualties on the Lebanese side of the border due to fire from the Syrian the from fire to due border the of side Lebanese the on casualties many been have there army, Lebanese the of presence the 10 12 hs te re- the Thus, Ironically, be- Ironically, www.lorientlejour.com/category/Liban/article/744928/Paris_soutient_la_ligne_politique_de_ www.lorientlejour.com/category/Liban/article/754019/Mikati_evoque_la_situation_locale__ mitting thegovernment. com- stances their without crisis Syrian the garding re- freely themselves position and themselves press ex- to parties Lebanese different the allowed has policy This top policymakers. the “external” and between Lebanese accords on also but force sive flicts in Lebanon does not only depend on its repres- tervene in a decisive manner in certain types of con- in- to capacity army’s Lebanese the that known well h Lbns pltcl spectrum. political Lebanese the of whole the representing policymakers, Lebanese top the among consensus political implicit an of sult major challenge. The policy of dissociation is the re- a is conflicts, regional of sorts all in cogwheels the as served always have and policy foreign own their tory, sectarian community segments have developed prevent his- its throughout where, country a in conflict such to Managing relations. of Syrian-Lebanese complexity and density the despite dimension, violent its in crisis Syrian the importing not in term, ceeded, though within certain limits and on the short suc- has Lebanon governance, of form consensual ties, as it does the 14 March Coalition, such that such Coalition, March 14 the does it as ties, privileged its maintain and alliance regime Syrian the with strategic its use can it that such vring, manoeu- for margin great a Hezbollah allows This resolutions foreign actororby international entirely dictatedby adominant policy issuewithoutitbeing interest regardingaforeign of itsown basedonnational managed todefineapoliticalline development, Lebanonhas In anunprecedented 13 ieie i is it Likewise, eign actor or by international resolutions. for- dominant a by dictated entirely being it without issue policy foreign a regarding interest national on based own its of line political a has define to managed Lebanon development, unprecedented an In opposition. Syrian the with alliance full proclaim openly can it 14 http://globaladvocacy.com/resolution_onu_1559.html tions anddemands, notonlyregardingLebanesesecurity andpoliticalaffairs,butalsooncertain aspectsofthecountry’sforeignpolicy. Cf. reaching the steps of Parliament at Nejmeh Square Nejmeh at Parliament of steps the reaching before collapsed which protest, the down weighed factors these of All overcome. to unable were they which protesters among discord of element another was revolt Syrian the of outbreak The placards. and their conflicts to the demonstrators and their slogans transferring parties political with movement, protest The divisions polarisation. in internal politics quickly spread to political the of rigidity the and mentation straints, but above all due to con- the society’s major various seg- of weight the under steam of out ran mobilisation the before protesters, 25,000 mately approxi- with Beirut, in 2011 March 20 on reached was height The areas. other and Beirut in next the telism. These protests multiplied from one Sunday to slogans clien- and chanting corruption regime, sectarian Beirut, the against of streets the in strate demon- to gathering people 2,500 some call, the to responded organisations society civil and dividuals the people sectarian regime” overthrow on Sunday, 27 February 2011. In- “to protest summoned a to Facebook youth through Lebanese uprisings, popular and Spring Arab the of atmosphere the In System Aborted MobilisationsandtheSurvivalof civil war? into slips Syria moment the dissolve rapidly will that self-protection and survival of mechanisms mentary ele- but are these perhaps Or violence? of nopoly mo- the and integrity territorial sovereignty, political State, Lebanese the constituting elements the tory, his- countries’shared two the throughout it dinated subor- that country the Syria, in crisis the to ap- proach Lebanon’s through germinating paradoxically are that policy foreign national a for premises the This is the case, for instance, with UN Resolution 1559 (September 2004) proposed by France and the United States, which makes declara- makes which States, United the and France by proposed 2004) (September 1559 Resolution UN with instance, for case, the is 14 Are these plural societies? of theSouthMediterranean’s model formanagingthediversity their representatives–serveasa confessional communitiesand sacrificed tothebenefitof “individual” citizenshipis the ideaof “national,” “civil” and – withitsendemiccrises, where To whatextentcouldthissystem South Mediterranean’splural societies? –the of diversity the managing for model representatives a as serve their and communities sional ofconfes- benefit the to sacrificed is citizenship “individual”“national,”“civil”and of idea the where crises, endemic its with – system this could extent what To etc.). inheritance, divorce, (marriage, tus community institutions with managing personal sta- confessional entrusting entirely and elites, sional and major functions of the State among the confes- nese political system consists of sharing the power Leba- The etc. systems, education and health the disap- salaries, system, fiscal the the war, the of during peared fate the and system justice tional transi- a children, their to nationality their grant to tem, decentralisation, the right of Lebanese women sys- electoral the to relating those as such forms, re- structural all blocking in succeeded thus have ic life. Since the end of the war in 1990, these elites pects of the country’s political, social and econom- the foundations that ensure their control over protectall as- to differences their beyond going united, have elites community confessional dominant the undermining the system’s structuring framework, all potentially challenges, such of face the in Indeed, “deconfessionalisation.” or secularisation, system’s the demands continually of Speaker of order Parliament Nabih Berry, who, by by the way, off cut been had square the because

189 Med.2012 Panorama