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Modelling and Assessing Surface Change Impacts on Belgian and Western European Climate

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Modelling and Assessing Surface Change Impacts on Belgian and Western European Climate MASC Modelling and Assessing Surface Change impacts on Belgian and Western European climate Louis FRANCOIS (University of Liège) - Ingrid JACQUEMIN (University of Liège) - Alexandra HENROT (University of Liège) - Alain HAMBUCKERS (University of Liège) - Bernard TYCHON (University of Liège) - Julie BERCKMANS (Royal Meteorological Institute of Belgium) - Rafiq HAMDI (Royal Meteorological Institute of Belgium) - Véronique BECKERS (University of Namur) - Nicolas DENDONCKER (University of Namur) - Joanna HOREMANS (University of Antwerp) - Reinhart CEULEMANS (University of Antwerp) - Gaby DECKMYN (University of Antwerp) - Bos DEBUSSCHER (Ghent University) - Robert DE WULF (Ghent University) - Frieke VAN COILLIE (Ghent University) - Nabil Laanaia (CNRM-GAME, Toulouse, France) - Jean-Christophe CALVET (CNRM-GAME, Toulouse, France) - Dominique CARRER (CNRM-GAME, Toulouse, France) Project BR/121/A2/MASC – Modelling and Assessing Surface Change impacts on Belgian and Western European climate NETWORK PROJECT MASC Modelling and Assessing Surface Change impacts on Belgian and Western European climate Contract - BR/121/A2/MASC FINAL REPORT PROMOTORS: L. FRANCOIS (University of Liège), A. HAMBUCKERS (University of Liège), B. TYCHON (University of Liège), R. HAMDI (Royal Meteorological Institute of Belgium), N. DENDONCKER (University of Namur), G. DECKMYN (University of Antwerp), R. CEULEMANS (University of Antwerp), R. DE WULF (Ghent University), F. VAN COILLIE (Ghent University), J.- C. CALVET (CNRM-GAME, Toulouse, France), D. CARRER (CNRM-GAME, Toulouse, France) AUTHORS: L. FRANCOIS (University of Liège), I. JACQUEMIN (University of Liège), A. HENROT (University of Liège), A. HAMBUCKERS (University of Liège), B. TYCHON (University of Liège), J. BERCKMANS (Royal Meteorological Institute of Belgium), R. HAMDI (Royal Meteorological Institute of Belgium), V. BECKERS (University of Namur), N. DENDONCKER (University of Namur), J. HOREMANS (University of Antwerp), R. CEULEMANS (University of Antwerp), G. DECKMYN (University of Antwerp), B. DEBUSSCHER (Ghent University), R. DE WULF (Ghent University), F. VAN COILLIE (Ghent University), Nabil LAANAIA (CNRM-GAME, Toulouse, France), Jean-Christophe CALVET (CNRM-GAME, Toulouse, France), Dominique CARRER (CNRM-GAME, Toulouse, France) BRAIN-be (Belgian Research Action through Interdisciplinary Networks) 2 Project BR/121/A2/MASC – Modelling and Assessing Surface Change impacts on Belgian and Western European climate Published in 2019 by the Belgian Science Policy Avenue Louise 231 Louizalaan 231 B-1050 Brussels Belgium Tel: +32 (0)2 238 34 11 - Fax: +32 (0)2 230 59 12 http://www.belspo.be http://www.belspo.be/brain-be Contact person: Martine Vanderstraeten Tel: +32 (0)2 238 36 10 Neither the Belgian Science Policy nor any person acting on behalf of the Belgian Science Policy is responsible for the use which might be made of the following information. The authors are responsible for the content. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise, without indicating the reference: Francois, L., I. Jacquemin, A. Henrot, A. Hambuckers, B. Tychon, J. Berckmans, R. Hamdi, V. Beckers, N. Dendoncker, J. Horemans, R. Ceulemans, G. Deckmyn, B. Debusscher, R. De Wulf, F. Van Coillie, N. Laanaia, J.-C. Calvet, D. Carrers. MASC - Modelling and Assessing Surface Change impacts on Belgian and Western European climate. Final Report. Brussels : Belgian Science Policy 2019 – 85 p. (BRAIN-be - (Belgian Research Action through Interdisciplinary Networks) BRAIN-be (Belgian Research Action through Interdisciplinary Networks) 3 Project BR/121/A2/MASC – Modelling and Assessing Surface Change impacts on Belgian and Western European climate TABLE OF CONTENTS CONTENTS ABSTRACT 5 CONTEXT ........................................................................................................................................................................5 OBJECTIVES .....................................................................................................................................................................5 CONCLUSIONS .................................................................................................................................................................6 KEYWORDS .....................................................................................................................................................................6 1. INTRODUCTION 6 2. STATE OF THE ART AND OBJECTIVES 7 3. METHODOLOGY 10 4. SCIENTIFIC RESULTS AND RECOMMENDATIONS 23 5. DISSEMINATION AND VALORISATION 64 6. PUBLICATIONS 65 7. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS 70 ANNEXES 71 BRAIN-be (Belgian Research Action through Interdisciplinary Networks) 4 Project BR/121/A2/MASC – Modelling and Assessing Surface Change impacts on Belgian and Western European climate ABSTRACT Context The interactions between land surface and climate are complex. Climate change can affect ecosystem structure and functions, by altering photosynthesis or inducing thermal and hydric stresses on plant species. These changes then impact socio-economic systems, through e.g. lower farming or forestry incomes. Ultimately, it can lead to permanent changes in land use structure, especially when associated with other non-climatic factors, such as urbanisation pressure. These interactions and changes impact the climate system, in terms of changing: (1) surface properties (albedo, roughness, evapotranspiration, etc.) and (2) greenhouse gases emissions (mainly CO2, CH4, N2O). The first type of feedbacks alters directly the local/regional atmospheric circulation, whilst the second feedback affects the global system in the long run, through a modification of the atmospheric greenhouse gas budget. This project has addressed the first type of feedbacks. Current studies remain quite limited in their assessment of the interactions between climate and land surface dynamics, because (1) they do not fully couple the climate, the land surface and the socio-economic sphere, implying that the strength of the feedbacks existing between these three systems cannot really be evaluated, and (2) they usually use low resolution models, so that atmospheric processes like regional winds, thunderstorms or other local convective systems cannot be represented, while these meso-scale circulation features are probably central in governing the land surface-climate feedbacks at the scale of a region or a country. For those reasons, in this project, we have attempted to build a country-scale assessment tool using high-resolution coupled models of climate, land surface dynamics and socio-economic processes. This tool was specifically designed for Belgium and applied over its whole territory. Objectives The overall objective of the MASC project (“Modelling and Assessing Surface Changes impacts on Belgian and Western European climate”) was thus to build such a high resolution assessment tool to study the feedbacks between climate changes and land surface changes. With this tool, the project aimed to: (1) produce coherent projections of climate and land surface changes over Belgium and Western Europe up to 2035; (2) isolate the climatic impacts of land use/land cover changes in these projections; (3) assess the impacts on the productivity and the carbon budget of Belgian ecosystems. Through these objectives, the ultimate goal is to provide better climate projections and climate change evaluation tools to policy makers, stakeholders and the scientific community. The tool that has been constructed combines a regional climate model, a dynamic vegetation model and an agent-based model. The first step was the construction/adaptation, the validation and the assembly of the models. A particular attention was given to the dynamic vegetation model, which was compared with two other models at several eddy covariance sites to test its ability to simulate gross primary productivity and net ecosystem fluxes of carbon and water. The next step was the production of high resolution scenarios for the Belgian territory, in an iterative way. The regional climate model was run first to provide scenarios of climate change for Belgium, which do not account for land use/land cover changes. Then, the dynamic vegetation model and the agent-based model were coupled together, and, forced with the climatic projections, they produced scenarios of land use/land cover, crop yield and forest productivity changes up to 2035. These scenarios respond dynamically to climate change. They take into account the urbanisation pressure, which is very important around the main cities of Belgium. They also assume that the observed recent increase of farm sizes in Belgium can be extrapolated into the near future. Finally, BRAIN-be (Belgian Research Action through Interdisciplinary Networks) 5 Project BR/121/A2/MASC – Modelling and Assessing Surface Change impacts on Belgian and Western European climate these scenarios were introduced in the regional climate model to evaluate the impacts of land use/land cover changes on the regional climate at high resolution. Conclusions The simulations of the regional climate model performed in this project show which regions will be most vulnerable to climate and land use change in the near future, and where mitigation and adaptation strategies should be applied. The main result of these simulations indicate that the land use/land cover changes expected in Belgium for the next
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