DOCSLIB.ORG

Building the Bomb an Organisational Approach to the Nuclear Terrorism Threat

Total Page：16

File Type：pdf, Size：1020Kb

Download full-text PDF Read full-text
Building the Bomb an Organisational Approach to the Nuclear Terrorism Threat Faculteit Sociale Wetenschappen Departement Politieke Wetenschappen Building the Bomb An organisational approach to the nuclear terrorism threat Proefschrift voorgelegd tot het behalen van de graad van doctor in de sociale wetenschappen: politieke wetenschappen aan de Universiteit Antwerpen te verdedigen door Brecht Volders Promotor: Prof. dr. Tom Sauer Antwerpen, 2019 Members of the doctoral committee Prof. dr. Tom Sauer (University of Antwerp, promotor) Prof. dr. Wouter Van Dooren (University of Antwerp) Prof. dr. Jacob Shapiro (Princeton University) Members of the jury Prof. dr. Jorg Kustermans (University of Antwerp) Prof. dr. Wyn Bowen (King’s College London) Table of contents Acknowledgments .................................................................................................................................... iv Figures, tables and photos........................................................................................................................ vi 1. Introduction ......................................................................................................................................... 1 1.1. Setting the research boundaries ................................................................................................... 5 1.2. Plan of the book ............................................................................................................................ 7 2. Assessing nuclear terrorism: the need for an organisational approach? ............................................. 11 2.1. Developing a nuclear terrorism scenario .................................................................................... 11 2.1.1. The physics behind a ‘first generation’ nuclear weapon ...................................................... 13 2.1.2. Various hurdles to a terrorist nuclear device ....................................................................... 16 2.1.3. A nuclear terrorism scenario: coping with a nonroutine nature of technology ................... 38 2.2. The organisational approach: underdeveloped in nuclear terrorism threat assessments .......... 43 2.2.1. The organisational approach in terrorism studies ............................................................... 44 2.2.2. The role of the organisational design ................................................................................... 47 3. Establishing some hypotheses ............................................................................................................ 61 3.1. Organisational design and technology ........................................................................................ 62 3.2. Organisational design and the environment ............................................................................... 69 3.3. Organisational design and the organisational strategy ............................................................... 74 4. Research design.................................................................................................................................. 81 4.1. Case selection ............................................................................................................................. 82 4.2. Data collection and analysis ........................................................................................................ 92 4.3. Data reporting ............................................................................................................................. 96 5. Case study: constructing the first nuclear bombs at Los Alamos ......................................................... 99 5.1. The relevance of Los Alamos..................................................................................................... 100 5.2. Organisational challenges ......................................................................................................... 102 5.2.1. Resource support ............................................................................................................... 102 5.2.2. Level of autonomy ............................................................................................................. 105 5.2.3. Information-sharing ........................................................................................................... 108 5.2.4. Clear and compelling goals ................................................................................................ 110 5.3. Los Alamos: similar to an organic organisational design ........................................................... 112 5.4. Extrapolations to the nuclear terrorism threat ......................................................................... 116 5.4.1. Effectiveness… ................................................................................................................... 116 i 5.4.2. Versus efficiency ................................................................................................................ 118 5.5. Conclusion ................................................................................................................................ 121 6. Case study: the South African PNE program ..................................................................................... 124 6.1. The relevance of South Africa’s PNE program .......................................................................... 126 6.2. Organisational challenges ......................................................................................................... 128 6.2.1. Resource support ............................................................................................................... 129 6.2.2. Level of autonomy ............................................................................................................. 132 6.2.3. Information-sharing ........................................................................................................... 134 6.2.4. Clear and compelling goals ................................................................................................ 136 6.3. South Africa’s PNE program: various features of an organic design ......................................... 137 6.4. Extrapolations to the nuclear terrorism threat ......................................................................... 140 6.4.1. Effectiveness… ................................................................................................................... 140 6.4.2. Versus efficiency ................................................................................................................ 142 6.5. Conclusion ................................................................................................................................ 144 7. Case study: Aum Shinrikyo’s chemical and biological armament activities ........................................ 147 7.1. The relevance of Aum Shinrikyo’s CB activities ......................................................................... 149 7.2. Organisational challenges ......................................................................................................... 151 7.2.1. Resource support ............................................................................................................... 152 7.2.2. Level of autonomy ............................................................................................................. 154 7.2.3. Information-sharing ........................................................................................................... 156 7.2.4. Clear and compelling goals ................................................................................................ 158 7.3. Aum Shinrikyo’s CB activities: various features of a mechanistic design .................................. 160 7.4. Extrapolations to the nuclear terrorism threat ......................................................................... 163 7.4.1. Effectiveness… ................................................................................................................... 163 7.4.2. Versus efficiency ................................................................................................................ 164 7.5. Conclusion ................................................................................................................................ 168 8. Case study: the implementation of 9/11 by Al Qaeda ....................................................................... 171 8.1. The relevance of 9/11 ............................................................................................................... 173 8.2. Organisational challenges ......................................................................................................... 175 8.2.1. Resource support ............................................................................................................... 176 8.2.2. Level of autonomy ............................................................................................................. 178 8.2.3. Information-sharing ........................................................................................................... 180 8.2.4. Clear and compelling goals ................................................................................................ 182 8.3. Al Qaeda’s 9/11 plot: features of an organic design ................................................................. 184 ii 8.4. Extrapolations to the nuclear terrorism threat ........................................................................
Load more

Recommended publications
  • 1983 November.Pdf
    1 o o •-3 33 > Z C/l 33 O 33 LO O I—4 00 OJ i??g»ss s S 1.8 |»|S-?S Ii irifim fmi! il!?|l till I! li <«3 s°§;z S?| ? § faj $13 ^a23 CO W«S' “ a 2 McMillan-Scott Associates Public Affairs II Whnoh.il! I j.rulonSWIA 211/ T.-k-pImiw "I 'M»»«.wV> ! THE TIMES News in ! 30.11.83 summary Exocet hit by Sea Wolf Two of the next three type 22 frigates are to be named after the Sheffield and Coventry, which were sunk last year by Exocet missiles during the Falklands campaign, Mr John Lee, the Under Secretary of State for Defence Procurement, told the Commons on Monday. An Exocet was shot down for the first time by a ship-launched Sea Wolf missile at maximum range in a trial last week, Mr DAILY TELEGRAPH Lee announced. The firing will be shown on television soon. 30.11.83 v ■> Former Argentine leader Cen. Gal fieri leaving the Buenos Aires offices of the Supreme Armed Forces Council where a panel of officers found him “ grossly negligent and incompetent” in his handling of the Falklands conflict and recommended that he be formally charged with serious violations of the military code. McMillan-Scott Associates Public Affairs 41 Whitehall London SW1A 2BZ Telephone: 01-9306935 md l ; l ! The Standard 30th November 1983 Diver beat danger to reach secrets i THE courage of Navy i diver Michael Harrison by Marion Ellis was rewarded today when he received the Queen’s Gallantry Medal at Buckingham Palace.
    [Show full text]
  • Nuclear Capability, Bargaining Power, and Conflict by Thomas M. Lafleur
    Nuclear capability, bargaining power, and conflict by Thomas M. LaFleur B.A., University of Washington, 1992 M.A., University of Washington, 2003 M.M.A.S., United States Army Command and General Staff College, 2004 M.M.A.S., United States Army Command and General Staff College, 2005 AN ABSTRACT OF A DISSERTATION submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY Security Studies KANSAS STATE UNIVERSITY Manhattan, Kansas 2019 Abstract Traditionally, nuclear weapons status enjoyed by nuclear powers was assumed to provide a clear advantage during crisis. However, state-level nuclear capability has previously only included nuclear weapons, limiting this application to a handful of states. Current scholarship lacks a detailed examination of state-level nuclear capability to determine if greater nuclear capabilities lead to conflict success. Ignoring other nuclear capabilities that a state may possess, capabilities that could lead to nuclear weapons development, fails to account for the potential to develop nuclear weapons in the event of bargaining failure and war. In other words, I argue that nuclear capability is more than the possession of nuclear weapons, and that other nuclear technologies such as research and development and nuclear power production must be incorporated in empirical measures of state-level nuclear capabilities. I hypothesize that states with greater nuclear capability hold additional bargaining power in international crises and argue that empirical tests of the effectiveness of nuclear power on crisis bargaining must account for all state-level nuclear capabilities. This study introduces the Nuclear Capabilities Index (NCI), a six-component scale that denotes nuclear capability at the state level.
    [Show full text]
  • Israeli Spy Was Central Cog in Nuclear Weapons Proliferation Alliance
    افغاوستان آزاد – آزاد افغاوستان AA-AA چو کشور وباشـد ته مه مبـــــــاد بدیه بوم وبر زوده یک ته مــــباد همه سر به سر ته به کشته دهیم از آن به که کشور به دشمه دهیم www.afgazad.com [email protected] زبان های اروپائی European Languages http://www.globalresearch.ca/israeli-spy-was-central-cog-in-nuclear-weapons-proliferation- alliance/5320780 Israeli Spy was Central Cog in Nuclear Weapons Proliferation Alliance By Wayne Madsen January 28, 2013 It is clear that during the middle of December of last year that the Obama White House had settled on former Nebraska Republican Senator Chuck Hagel to be the Secretary of Defense. The U.S. Intelligence Community and defense establishment was told to come up with a strategy to combat the expected strong opposition to the nomination of the critical of Israel Hagel by that nation’s lobby in the United States. The pro-Hagel circles needed a secret weapon to counteract the Israel supporters who would stress that Hagel was not supportive of the «special relationship» between the United States and Israel. There was no better way to demonstrate that Israel was no special ally of the United States but a longtime hostile intelligence threat to America by declassifying a large part of the Central Intelligence Agency‟s Damage Report arising from the intense espionage carried out by one-time U.S. Naval Intelligence spy Jonathan Jay Pollard on behalf of Israel… The declassification of the long-classified Pollard report was made on December 16, 2012. However, the first substantial media reports on the report began around December 26.
    [Show full text]
  • The Hidden Thread: Russia and South Africa in the Soviet Era by Irina
    THE JOURNAL OF THE HELEN SUZMAN FOUNDATION | ISSUE 70 | OCTOBER 2013 Dr Anthony Egan, a Catholic BOOK REVIEW priest and Jesuit, is a member of the Jesuit Institute – South Africa in Johannesburg. He The Hidden Thread: is Research Fellow at the Helen Suzman Foundation. Trained Russia and South Africa in history and politics at UCT (MA) and Wits (PhD) he is also a in the Soviet Era by Irina moral theologian, who has lectured at Wits Filatova & Apollon University (Political Studies), St John Vianney Seminary Davidson (moral theology) and St Augustine College I suspect that many South Africans’ fascination with Russia, pre- and post- of South Africa Soviet era as well as the Soviet Union, lies with a sense that our countries’ (moral theology and histories contain so many parallels: minority elites and peasant masses; applied ethics). He is completing a book on pockets of high technology industrialisation combined with an agrarian just war theory. economy; lurches back and forth between democracy and authoritarianism, punctuated by revolutionary uprisings and mass protest. Indeed, in both countries one sees, too, tense engagements with liberal constitutionalism and the rule of law, faced off against populist nationalisms. Given, too, the general lack of South African scholars familiarity with the Russian language, it’s also not too surprising that few works of comparative history or of Russian-South African relations have been written. Those that have come from South Africa have been mainly polemical works, relics of the Cold War warning against (mostly, it seems, imagined) Soviet imperial designs on the country. Thankfully, this new book by two leading Russian historians of South Africa, both professors for many years in the country, sets out to clarify Russian-South African foreign relations.
    [Show full text]
  • Unveiling South Africa's Nuclear Past
    Journal of Southern African Studies, Volume 30, Number 3, September 2004 mj^ Carfax Publishing Unveiling South Africa's Nuclear Past VERNE HARRIS,^ SELLO HATANG^ AND PETER LIBERMAN^ ('University of the Witwatersrand; ^South African History Archive; ^Queens College and the Graduate Center, The City University of New York) Research into South African apartheid-era nuclear weapons history has been severely hampered by longstanding secrecy laws, not to mention the destruction of most policy records. The recent declassification and release of a 1975 Defence Force memorandum recommending the acquisition of nuclear weapons, however, shows that important docu- ments have survived. This document sheds new light on military attitudes about nuclear acquisition, and about the extent of the South African-Israeli alliance. It confirms that Israel had offered South Africa missiles, and may have offered nuclear warheads as well. While the release of the 1975 document is promising, the Promotion of Access to Information Act, 2000 and the convening of an interdepartmental Classification and Declassification Review Committee in 2002 do not thus far represent a decisive shift toward greater openness on apartheid-era history. The state's incentives for disclosure, controlled to avoid nuclear technology leakage, include the benefits of the lessons of the past to the global non-proliferation regime, contributing to South Africa's prestige and foreign policy agenda, and enhancing the country's democratic transparency. The apartheid-era South African nuclear weapons programnsie, which built and then dismantled six and one-half Hiroshima type bombs, is a rarity in international history. However, more than a decade after the programme's exposure, the historical record of this case remains remarkably thin.
    [Show full text]
  • Michael Eisenstadt David Pollock How the United States Benefits from Its
    A WASHINGTON INSTITUTE STRATEGIC REPORT How the United States Benefits from Its Alliance with Israel Michael Eisenstadt David Pollock STRATEGIC REPORT 7 Michael Eisenstadt David Pollock ASSET TEST How the United States Benefits from Its Alliance with Israel STRATEGIC REPORT 7 SEPTEMBER 2012 All rights reserved. Printed in the United States of America. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic or mechanical, including photocopy, recording, or any information storage and retrieval system, without permission in writing from the publisher. © 2012 by The Washington Institute for Near East Policy The Washington Institute for Near East Policy, 1828 L Street NW, Suite 1050, Washington, DC 20036. COVER: Detail from die photo of Intel ‘s Tolapai System on Chip (SoC ). Computer processors developed by Intel’s Israel R&D center account for 40 percent of the company’s revenues worldwide. Contents About the Authors v Acknowledgments vii Executive Summary ix 1 | Introduction 1 2 | The Enduring Strategic Logic 3 3 | Cooperation on Hard Security Issues 10 4 | Cooperation on Soft Security Challenges 30 5 | Future Challenges 51 6 | Conclusion 57 ILLUSTRATIONS Fig. 1a | Arab-U.S. Ties Trend 5 Fig. 1b | Israel-U.S. Ties Trend 5 Fig. 2a | U.S. Exports to Israel (2011) 31 Fig. 2b | U.S. Imports from Israel (2011) 31 Fig. 2c | U.S. Exports to Saudi Arabia (2011) 31 Fig. 2d | U.S. Imports from Saudi Arabia (2011) 31 TABLES Table 1 | Select Israel-Origin Systems in Recent Use by the U.S. Military 18 Table 2 | Select U.S.
    [Show full text]
  • Nuclear Proliferation International History Project The
    Nuclear Proliferation International History Project The African National Congress and Apartheid South Africa’s Nuclear Weapons Program By Jo-Ansie van Wyk and Anna-Mart van Wyk NPIHP Working Paper #16 November 2020 THE NUCLEAR PROLIFERATION INTERNATIONAL HISTORY PROJECT WORKING PAPER SERIES Christian F. Ostermann and Leopoldo Nuti, Series Editors This paper is one of a series of Working Papers published by the Nuclear Proliferation International History Project. The Nuclear Proliferation International History Project (NPIHP) is a global network of individuals and institutions engaged in the study of international nuclear history through archival documents, oral history interviews and other empirical sources. Recognizing that today’s toughest nuclear challenges have deep roots in the past, NPIHP seeks to transcend the East vs. West paradigm to work towards an integrated international history of nuclear weapon proliferation. The continued proliferation of nuclear weapons is one of the most pressing security issues of our time, yet the empirically-based study of international nuclear history remains in its infancy. NPIHP’s programs to address this central issue include: the annual Nuclear Boot Camp for M.A. and Ph.D. candidates to foster a new generation of experts on the international history of nuclear weapons; the NPIHP Fellowship Program for advanced Ph.D. students and post-doctoral researchers hosted by NPIHP partner institutions around the world; a coordinated, global research effort which combines archival mining and oral history interviews conducted by NPIHP partners; a massive translation and digitization project aimed at making documentary evidence on international nuclear history broadly accessible online; a series of conferences, workshops and seminars hosted by NPIHP partners around the world.
    [Show full text]
  • 21 Mars ISSN 0346-2196 Pris 10 Kronor
    SWEDISH PATENT GAZETTE 10 Tidningen för kungörelser om patentansökningar och patent, utgiven av Kungl. patent-och registreringsverket, Box 5055, 102 42 Stockholm. 1983 Telefon: 08-22 55 40. Besöksadress: Valhallavägen 136. Telex: 17978 patoreg. Telegram: Patoreg-verket Stockholm. Postgiro: 1 56 84-4. 21 mars ISSN 0346-2196 Pris 10 kronor patentverkets bibl /otek lnk 2 1 MRS 1983 2 Svensk Patenttidning FÖRTECKNING ÖVER NATIONSKODER AD Andorra GM Gambia NR Nauru Svensk Patenttidning innehåller fr.o.m. 1969 alla kungörelser i patent- AE Arabrepubliken GN Guinea NZ Nya Zeeland AF Afganistan GQ Ekvatorial Guinea ärenden, såväl enligt patentlagen den 1 december 1967 som enligt AG Antigua GR Grekland OM Oman AL Albanien GT Guatemala patentförordningen den 16 maj 1884. AO Angola GW Guinea-Bissau PA Panama Beträffande kungörelsernas innehåll gäller, dels att särskild uppgift AR Argentina GY Guyana PE Peru AT Österrike PG Papua nya Guinea HK Hongkong PH Filippinerna inte lämnas rörande hemvist, om detta sammanfaller med adressen, AU Australien HN Honduras PK Pakistan dels att under avsnitten Inkomna, Allmänt tillgängliga och Utlagda BB Barbados HT Haiti PL Polen patentansökningar finns i huvudrubrikens vänstermarginal ledtexten: BD Bangladesh HU Ungern PT Portugal BE Belgien HV övre Volta PY Paraguay Ansökan inkommen som. I denna kolumn anges huruvida ansökan BG Bulgarien BH Bahrein ID Indonesien QA Qatar är inkommen som en svensk, fullföljd internationell eller omvandlad Bl Burundi IE Irland BJ Benin IL Israel RH Rhodesia europeisk patentansökning. Detta anges med ett I för de fullföljda BM Bermuda-öarna IN Indien RO Rumänien internationella och med ett E för de omvandlade europeiska och BN Brunei IQ Irak RW Ruanda BO Bolivia IR Iran med en blankmarkering för de svenska patentansökningama.
    [Show full text]
  • Historical Dictionary of International Intelligence Second Edition
    The historical dictionaries present essential information on a broad range of subjects, including American and world history, art, business, cities, countries, cultures, customs, film, global conflicts, international relations, literature, music, philosophy, religion, sports, and theater. Written by experts, all contain highly informative introductory essays on the topic and detailed chronologies that, in some cases, cover vast historical time periods but still manage to heavily feature more recent events. Brief A–Z entries describe the main people, events, politics, social issues, institutions, and policies that make the topic unique, and entries are cross- referenced for ease of browsing. Extensive bibliographies are divided into several general subject areas, providing excellent access points for students, researchers, and anyone wanting to know more. Additionally, maps, pho- tographs, and appendixes of supplemental information aid high school and college students doing term papers or introductory research projects. In short, the historical dictionaries are the perfect starting point for anyone looking to research in these fields. HISTORICAL DICTIONARIES OF INTELLIGENCE AND COUNTERINTELLIGENCE Jon Woronoff, Series Editor Israeli Intelligence, by Ephraim Kahana, 2006. Russian and Soviet Intelligence, by Robert W. Pringle, 2006. Cold War Counterintelligence, by Nigel West, 2007. World War II Intelligence, by Nigel West, 2008. Sexspionage, by Nigel West, 2009. Air Intelligence, by Glenmore S. Trenear-Harvey, 2009. Middle Eastern Intelligence, by Ephraim Kahana and Muhammad Suwaed, 2009. German Intelligence, by Jefferson Adams, 2009. Ian Fleming’s World of Intelligence: Fact and Fiction, by Nigel West, 2009. Naval Intelligence, by Nigel West, 2010. Atomic Espionage, by Glenmore S. Trenear-Harvey, 2011. Chinese Intelligence, by I. C.
    [Show full text]
  • Page 1 Historical Papers Research Archive, University of The
    Historical Papers Research Archive, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg G U I D E T O T H E A R C H I V E S A N D P A P E R S (Excluding the archives of the Anglican Church of Southern Africa) Copyright: Historical Papers Research Archive, University of the Witwatersrand Library PREFACE The University of the Witwatersrand has, as one of its most valuable and prestigious heritage and research assets, the holdings of the priceless Historical Papers collections. Historical Papers is the main humanities archival research resource on campus and is located in the William Cullen Library. It is also the largest non-state archives in Southern Africa and it is uniquely positioned within the South African heritage sector. The archives held in custody for the wider community within Historical Papers are extensive and provide a unique documentary record of South African history and society. The collections housed at Historical Papers include diaries, letters, memoranda, reports, minute-books, press clippings, pamphlets, photographs, drawings, oral interviews, trial transcripts and financial, legal and personal documents. These items are described in the Guide to the Archives and Papers of which this is the twelfth edition. The collections have contributed to many notable publications, television documentaries, school textbooks and academic works. They not only hold value as research tools, teaching aids and as crucial evidence for the intellectual development of theories and models but they contain collective social memory. Consequently, Historical Papers is an accessible hub for human rights research serving civil society as well as scholars. The first three editions of the Guide were arranged alphabetically.
    [Show full text]
  • Military Despatches Vol 27, Sep 2019
    Military Despatches Vol 27 September 2019 Forged in battle The M16 assault rifle Military technology New technology aims to change the face of combat Raid on Pebble Island The audacious raid by the SAS in the Falklands War Douglas Bader The WWII legend For the military enthusiast CONTENTS September 2019 Page 22 Click on any video below to view Page 12 How much do you know about movie theme songs? Take our quiz and find out. Hipe’s Wouter de The old South African Goede interviews former Defence Force used 28’s gang boss David a mixture of English, A South African on D-Day Williams. Afrikaans, slang and On 6th June 1944 a number of South Afri- techno-speak that few French Specialcans took part Forces in D-Day. outside the military could hope to under- stand. Some of the terms Features were humorous, some were clever, while others 6 were downright crude. Top Ten military mistakes Throughout history, battles 30 have been lost to bad weather, Rank Structure Part of Hipe’s “On the insufficient weaponry and bad This month we look at the couch” series, this is an luck. But what about those for French military interview with one of which poor judgment and shod- dy planning are to blame? author Herman Charles 32 Bosman’s most famous 22 A matter of survival characters, Oom Schalk 12 This month we’re looking at Changing the face of combat A taxi driver was shot Lourens. Hipe spent time in survival kits that are commer- Special Forces - France The military has not been slow dead in an ongoing Hanover Park, an area Part Seven of a series that takes cially available.
    [Show full text]
  • Soviet Acquisition of Militarily Significant Western Technology: an Update
    [Central Intelligence Agency] Soviet Acquisition of Militarily Significant Western Technology: An Update September 1985 Soviet Acquisition of Militarily Significant Western Technology: An Update In recent years, the United States Government has learned of a massive, wellorganized campaign by the Soviet Union to acquire Western technology illegally and legally for its weapons and military equipment projects. Each year Moscow receives thousands of pieces of Western equipment and many tens of thousands of unclassified, classified, and proprietary documents as part of this campaign. Virtually every Soviet military research project-well over 4,000 each year in the late 1970s and over 5,000 in the early 1980s-benefits from these technical documents and hardware. The assimila- tion of Western technology is so broad that the United States and other Western nations are thus subsidizing the Soviet military buildup. Western products and technology secrets are being systematically acquired by intricately organized, highly effective collection programs specifically targeted to improve Soviet military weapon systems. The Soviet intelligence services-the KGB, the GRU, and their surrogates among the East European services-and Soviet trade and scientific organizations are actively involved in obtaining this technology. Targets include defense contractors, manufac- turers, foreign trading firms, academic institutions, and electronic data bases. Only recently has the full extent of illegal Soviet technology collection efforts become known. The purpose of this paper is to reveal in detail the structure of these Soviet programs, and to give examples of Soviet requirements and successes. Understanding the Soviet effort is a critical first step in protecting Western technology and preventing it from being turned against the West.
    [Show full text]